Variable X = S&P 500

Variable Y = Tesla Inc (TSLA)

Tesla Inc (TSLA) S&P 500 Covarianza 0.00040
Date
Adj Close Retorno Adj Close Retorno Varianza 0.00098
01/02/14 244.810 1,859.450 Beta 0.40598
01/03/14 208.450 -14.85% 1,872.340 0.69%
01/04/14 207.890 -0.27% 1,883.950 0.62%
Beta Tes
01/05/14 207.770 -0.06% 1,923.570 2.10%
01/06/14 240.060 15.54% 1,960.230 1.91%
01/07/14 223.300 -6.98% 1,930.670 -1.51%
01/08/14 269.700 20.78% 2,003.370 3.77%
01/09/14 242.680 -10.02% 1,972.290 -1.55%
01/10/14 241.700 -0.40% 2,018.050 2.32%
01/11/14 244.520 1.17% 2,067.560 2.45%
01/12/14 222.410 -9.04% 2,058.900 -0.42% f(x) = 0.40597584
01/01/15 203.600 -8.46% 1,994.990 -3.10% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00%

01/02/15 203.340 -0.13% 2,104.500 5.49%

01/03/15 188.770 -7.17% 2,067.890 -1.74%
01/04/15 226.050 19.75% 2,085.510 0.85%
01/05/15 250.800 10.95% 2,107.390 1.05%
01/06/15 268.260 6.96% 2,063.110 -2.10%
01/07/15 266.150 -0.79% 2,103.840 1.97%
01/08/15 249.060 -6.42% 1,972.180 -6.26%
01/09/15 248.400 -0.26% 1,920.030 -2.64%
01/10/15 206.930 -16.69% 2,079.360 8.30%
01/11/15 230.260 11.27% 2,080.410 0.05%
01/12/15 240.010 4.23% 2,043.940 -1.75%
01/01/16 191.200 -20.34% 1,940.240 -5.07%
01/02/16 191.930 0.38% 1,932.230 -0.41%
01/03/16 229.770 19.72% 2,059.740 6.60%
01/04/16 240.760 4.78% 2,065.300 0.27%
01/05/16 223.230 -7.28% 2,096.950 1.53%
01/06/16 212.280 -4.91% 2,098.860 0.09%
01/07/16 234.790 10.60% 2,173.600 3.56%
01/08/16 212.010 -9.70% 2,170.950 -0.12%
01/09/16 204.030 -3.76% 2,168.270 -0.12%
01/10/16 197.730 -3.09% 2,126.150 -1.94%
01/11/16 189.400 -4.21% 2,198.810 3.42%
01/12/16 213.690 12.82% 2,238.830 1.82%
01/01/17 251.930 17.90% 2,278.870 1.79%
01/02/17 249.990 -0.77% 2,363.640 3.72%
01/03/17 278.300 11.32% 2,362.720 -0.04%
01/04/17 314.070 12.85% 2,384.200 0.91%
01/05/17 341.010 8.58% 2,411.800 1.16%
01/06/17 361.610 6.04% 2,423.410 0.48%
01/07/17 323.470 -10.55% 2,470.300 1.93%
01/08/17 355.900 10.03% 2,471.650 0.05%
01/09/17 341.100 -4.16% 2,519.360 1.93%
01/10/17 331.530 -2.81% 2,575.260 2.22%
01/11/17 308.850 -6.84% 2,584.840 0.37%
01/12/17 311.350 0.81% 2,673.610 3.43%
01/01/18 354.310 13.80% 2,823.810 5.62%
01/02/18 343.060 -3.18% 2,713.830 -3.89%
01/03/18 266.130 -22.42% 2,640.870 -2.69%
01/04/18 293.900 10.43% 2,648.050 0.27%
01/05/18 284.730 -3.12% 2,705.270 2.16%
01/06/18 342.950 20.45% 2,718.370 0.48%
01/07/18 298.140 -13.07% 2,816.290 3.60%
01/08/18 301.660 1.18% 2,901.520 3.03%
01/09/18 264.770 -12.23% 2,913.980 0.43%
01/10/18 337.320 27.40% 2,711.740 -6.94%
01/11/18 350.480 3.90% 2,760.170 1.79%
01/12/18 332.800 -5.04% 2,506.850 -9.18%
01/01/19 297.040 -10.75% 2,664.760 6.30%
25/01/19 297.040 0.00% 2,664.760 0.00%
 Levered Beta ( Auto & Truck) 0.79

Beta Tesla Inc (TSLA)

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

f(x) = 0.405975841368217 x + 0.00633999511013206

0.00%
-10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00%

-10.00%

-20.00%

-30.00%
 Geometric Average Risk Premium
Year Rm Rf Stocks - T.Bills Stocks - T.Bonds
1928-2018 9.49% 4.83% 6.11% 4.66%
1969-2018 9.73% 6.69% 5.01% 3.04%
2009-2018 12.98% 1.97% 12.48% 11.00%

Unlevered ß (Auto & Truck) 0.32

CAPM = Rf + ß * (Rm - Rf) + CP
Cp (Uruguay) 2.64%
Impuesto 25%

CAPM = 4.83% + 0.32 * (9.49% - 4.83) + 2.64%

%D 40.00%
%E 60.00%
Total = 100.00%

CAPM = 8.96%
Beta Reapalancada

BRL = Bu * [ 1+ (D/E) * (1-T) ] 0.48

CAPM = 9.71%
m - Rf) + CP

32 * (9.49% - 4.83) + 2.64%

8.96%

9.71%
 Inversion Monto % Ke = % E * CAPM 5.82%
D -280,000,000 40.00%
E -420,000,000 60.00% Kd = %D * I (1-T) 3.60%
Total -700,000,000 100.00%
Wacc = 9.42%
CAPM 9.71%
Impuesto 25.00%
Tasa de Interes 12.00%
 TESLA INC (TSLA) / URUGUAY - MO

CAPEX 0 1 2 3 4
Fabrica -700,000,000
Flujo de Capex -700,000,000 0 0 0 0
OPEX
Ingresos 985,000,000 1,580,925,000 2,255,453,000 3,016,668,388
Costos -850,000,000 -1,262,250,000 -1,666,170,000 -2,061,885,375
Admon y Ventas -2,000,000 -2,040,000 -2,080,800 -2,122,416
Depreciacion -70,000,000 -70,000,000 -70,000,000 -70,000,000
EBIT / Utilidad Operativa 63,000,000 246,635,000 517,202,200 882,660,597
Impuestos 25.00% -15,750,000 -61,658,750 -129,300,550 -220,665,149
EBIAT 47,250,000 184,976,250 387,901,650 661,995,447
Depreciacion 70,000,000 70,000,000 70,000,000 70,000,000
Flujo Opex 117,250,000 254,976,250 457,901,650 731,995,447
Flujo del Proyecto -700,000,000 117,250,000 254,976,250 457,901,650 731,995,447

Wacc 9.42% TIR WACC

NPV @ Wacc 9.42% 7,713,155,729 65.31% 9.42%

TIR 65.31%

Deuda 40.00%
Tasa de Interes 12.00%
Años 10

Flujo de Financiamiento
Principal 280,000,000 -15,955,566 -17,870,234 -20,014,662 -22,416,421
Interes -33,600,000 -31,685,332 -29,540,904 -27,139,145
Impuestos 8,400,000 7,921,333 7,385,226 6,784,786
Flujo de Financiamiento 280,000,000 -41,155,566 -41,634,233 -42,170,340 -42,770,780
Flujo del Inversionista -420,000,000 76,094,434 213,342,017 415,731,310 689,224,668

NPV @ Ke 5.82% 10,032,809,580

Ke 5.82%

Ventas 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Precio 98,500 105,395 112,773 120,667
Incremento Real 5.00%
Inflacion 2.00%
Incremento Nominal 7.00%
Ingresos 985,000,000 1,580,925,000 2,255,453,000 3,016,668,388

Admon y Ventas 2,000,000 2,040,000 2,080,800 2,122,416

Costo Unitario 85,000 84,150 83,309 82,475

Disminucion -3.00%
Inflacion 2.00%
Incremento Nominal -1.00%
Costo Total 850,000,000 1,262,250,000 1,666,170,000 2,061,885,375
/ URUGUAY - MODEL S 60D

5 6 7 8 9 10

0 0 0 0 0 0

3,873,402,210 4,835,297,092 5,912,877,586 7,117,626,394 8,462,066,936 9,959,852,783

-2,449,519,826 -2,829,195,398 -3,201,032,508 -3,565,149,956 -3,921,664,951 -4,270,693,132
-2,164,864 -2,208,162 -2,252,325 -2,297,371 -2,343,319 -2,390,185
-70,000,000 -70,000,000 -70,000,000 -70,000,000 -70,000,000 -70,000,000
1,351,717,520 1,933,893,532 2,639,592,753 3,480,179,067 4,468,058,666 5,616,769,466
-337,929,380 -483,473,383 -659,898,188 -870,044,767 -1,117,014,666 -1,404,192,367
1,013,788,140 1,450,420,149 1,979,694,565 2,610,134,301 3,351,043,999 4,212,577,100
70,000,000 70,000,000 70,000,000 70,000,000 70,000,000 70,000,000
1,083,788,140 1,520,420,149 2,049,694,565 2,680,134,301 3,421,043,999 4,282,577,100
1,083,788,140 1,520,420,149 2,049,694,565 2,680,134,301 3,421,043,999 4,282,577,100

-25,106,392 -28,119,159 -31,493,458 -35,272,673 -39,505,394 -44,246,041

-24,449,174 -21,436,407 -18,062,108 -14,282,893 -10,050,172 -5,309,525
6,112,294 5,359,102 4,515,527 3,570,723 2,512,543 1,327,381
-43,443,272 -44,196,464 -45,040,039 -45,984,843 -47,043,023 -48,228,185
1,040,344,867 1,476,223,684 2,004,654,526 2,634,149,458 3,374,000,976 4,234,348,915

30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000

129,113 138,151 147,822 158,169 169,241 181,088
3,873,402,210 4,835,297,092 5,912,877,586 7,117,626,394 8,462,066,936 9,959,852,783

2,164,864 2,208,162 2,252,325 2,297,371 2,343,319 2,390,185

81,651 80,834 80,026 79,226 78,433 77,649

2,449,519,826 2,829,195,398 3,201,032,508 3,565,149,956 3,921,664,951 4,270,693,132