CUADRO Nº : FLUJO DE CAJA (Precio Social)

PROYECTO DESARROLLO DE PRODUCCION DE TARA

FECHA Diciembre del 2006

PRIMERA ALTERNATIVA

AÑO INVERSION OPERAC. MANTEN. EGRESO BENEFICIO FLUJO

S/. S/. S/, TOTAL VBPI NETO
0 452,757.52 - 179,550.00 - 100,200.00 173,007.52 - - 173,007.52
1 990,005.43 - 55,950.00 ### 2,393,909.43 813,165.00 - 1,580,744.43
2 418,835.73 67,650.00 ### 2,104,229.73 8,583,165.00 6,478,935.27
3 - 1,734,930.00 ### 3,510,564.00 19,503,165.00 15,992,601.00
4 1,734,930.00 ### 3,510,564.00 25,503,165.00 21,992,601.00
5 - 1,734,930.00 ### 3,510,564.00 31,503,165.00 27,992,601.00
6 1,734,930.00 ### 3,510,564.00 37,503,165.00 33,992,601.00
7 1,734,930.00 ### 3,510,564.00 40,503,165.00 36,992,601.00
8 1,734,930.00 ### 3,510,564.00 40,503,165.00 36,992,601.00
9 1,734,930.00 ### 3,510,564.00 40,503,165.00 36,992,601.00
10 1,734,930.00 ### 3,510,564.00 40,503,165.00 36,992,601.00

TSD 11%
VAN 125,987,697.11
TIR 369.7%
B/C 7.74

SEGUNDA ALTERNATIVA

AÑO INVERSION OPERAC. MANTEN. EGRESO BENEFICIO FLUJO

S/. S/. S/, TOTAL VBPI NETO
0 811,926.42 - 179,550.00 - 150,000.00 482,376.42 - - 482,376.42
1 ### - 55,950.00 ### 12,762,170.71 4,290,000.00 - 8,472,170.71
2 495,605.00 67,650.00 ### 5,140,255.00 2,700,000.00 - 2,440,255.00
3 - 4,305,000.00 ### 9,093,000.00 21,450,000.00 12,357,000.00
4 4,305,000.00 ### 9,093,000.00 33,450,000.00 24,357,000.00
5 - 4,305,000.00 ### 9,093,000.00 45,450,000.00 36,357,000.00
6 - 4,305,000.00 ### 9,093,000.00 51,450,000.00 42,357,000.00
7 4,305,000.00 ### 9,093,000.00 51,450,000.00 42,357,000.00
8 4,305,000.00 ### 9,093,000.00 51,450,000.00 42,357,000.00
9 4,305,000.00 ### 9,093,000.00 51,450,000.00 42,357,000.00
10 4,305,000.00 ### 9,093,000.00 51,450,000.00 42,357,000.00
TSD 11%
VAN 129,463,714.14
TIR 101.6%
B/C 3.39
FA FLUJO FAC FAB
0.90 ACTUALIZ
1.00 (173,007.52) 173,007.52 -
0.90 (1,424,094.08) 2,156,675.16 732,581.08
0.81 5,258,449.21 1,707,840.06 6,966,289.26
0.73 11,693,652.02 2,566,894.14 14,260,546.16
0.66 14,487,207.48 2,312,517.24 16,799,724.72
0.59 16,612,246.24 2,083,348.87 18,695,595.11
0.53 18,173,832.62 1,876,890.87 20,050,723.49
0.48 17,817,797.41 1,690,892.68 19,508,690.09
0.43 16,052,069.74 1,523,326.74 17,575,396.48
0.39 14,461,324.09 1,372,366.43 15,833,690.52
0.35 13,028,219.90 1,236,366.15 14,264,586.05

125,987,697.11 18,700,125.86 144,687,822.96

FA FLUJO FAC FAB

0.90 ACTUALIZ
1.00 (482,376.42) 482,376.42 -
0.90 (7,632,586.22) 11,497,451.09 3,864,864.86
0.81 (1,980,565.70) 4,171,946.27 2,191,380.57
0.73 9,035,331.90 6,648,723.23 15,684,055.13
0.66 16,044,710.34 5,989,840.75 22,034,551.09
0.59 21,576,109.93 5,396,252.93 26,972,362.86
0.53 22,645,781.89 4,861,489.12 27,507,271.02
0.48 20,401,605.31 4,379,719.93 24,781,325.24
0.43 18,379,824.60 3,945,693.63 22,325,518.23
0.39 16,558,400.54 3,554,678.95 20,113,079.49
0.35 14,917,477.97 3,202,413.47 18,119,891.43
- - -
129,463,714.14 54,130,585.78 183,594,299.92
 ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD
PROYECTO DE TARA EN REGION DE AYACUCHO

1.- VARIACION DE PRECIOS DE INSUMOS

100% Variacion
INDICADOR ALT 01 ALT 02
-30%
VAN Social 125,987,697.11 129,463,714.14 -20%
TIR Social 369.69 101.64 -10%
B/C Social 7.74 3.39 0%
10%
20%
30%

1.- VARIACION DE PRECIOS DE VENTA

100% Variacion
INDICADOR ALT 01 ALT 02
-30%
VAN Social 125,987,697.11 129,463,714.14 -20%
TIR Social 369.69 101.64 -10%
B/C Social 7.74 3.39 0%
10%
20%
30%

3.- VARIACION DE RENDIMIENTOS

100% Variacion
INDICADOR ALT 01 ALT 02
-30%
VAN Social 125,987,697.11 129,463,714.14 -20%
TIR Social 369.69 101.64 -10%
B/C Social 7.74 3.39 0%
10%
20%
30%
 VANS 01 VANS 02
137,769,365.37 143,595,424.84
133,846,454.95 138,889,607.12
129,919,232.20 134,179,036.89
125,987,697.11 129,463,714.14
122,051,849.68 124,743,638.89
118,111,689.91 120,018,811.12
114,167,217.80 115,289,230.85

VANS 01 VANS 02
76,438,583.83 74,385,424.17
92,954,954.92 92,744,854.16
109,471,326.01 111,104,284.15
125,987,697.11 129,463,714.14
142,504,068.20 147,823,144.14
159,020,439.00 166,182,574.13
175,536,810.39 184,542,004.12

VANS 01 VANS 02
76,438,583.83 74,385,424.17
92,954,954.92 92,744,854.16
109,471,326.01 111,104,284.15
125,987,697.11 129,463,714.14
142,504,068.20 147,823,144.14
159,020,439.30 166,182,574.13
175,536,810.39 184,542,004.12
RESULTADOS DE ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD
1.- VARIACION DE PRECIOS DE INSUMOS

160,000,000
Variación VANS 01 VANS 02
-30% 137,769,365 143,595,425 140,000,000
-20% 133,846,455 138,889,607
120,000,000
-10% 129,919,232 134,179,037
0% 125,987,697 129,463,714 100,000,000
10% 122,051,850 124,743,639
80,000,000 VANS 01
20% 118,111,690 120,018,811
VANS 02
30% 114,167,218 115,289,231 60,000,000

40,000,000

20,000,000

-
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

1.- VARIACION DE PRECIOS DE VENTA

200,000,000
180,000,000
Variación VANS 01 VANS 02
160,000,000
-30% 75,858,927 73,715,255
-20% 92,375,298 92,074,685 140,000,000
-10% 108,891,669 110,434,115 120,000,000
0% 125,404,040 128,793,545 100,000,000 VANS 01
10% 141,924,411 147,152,975 VANS 02
80,000,000
20% 158,440,782 165,512,405
60,000,000
30% 174,957,153 183,871,835
40,000,000
20,000,000
-
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

3.- VARIACION DE RENDIMIENTOS

200,000,000
Variación VANS 01 VANS 02
180,000,000
-30% 75,858,927 73,715,255
160,000,000
-20% 92,375,298 92,074,685
-10% 108,891,669 110,434,115 140,000,000
0% 125,408,040 128,793,545 120,000,000
10% 141,924,411 147,152,975 100,000,000 VANS 01
20% 158,440,782 165,512,405 80,000,000 VANS 02
30% 174,957,153 183,871,835
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
-
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
80,000,000 VANS 02

60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
-
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
 VANS 01
VANS 02

% 30%

VANS 01
VANS 02

% 30%

VANS 01
VANS 02

% 30%
 VANS 02

% 30%