n 8

t1 175

alfa 1 0.1
alfa 2 0.5

Trimestre 2
Trimestre 3
 Ft=Ft - 1 + alfa(At
2/n+1
0.222222222

Ft Ft-1 at-1 alfa

175*0.1(AT-1)-175 175 0.1
157.5+0.1(At-1)
157.5+0.1(At-1)+0.1(At-2-(157.5+0.1/(A157.5+0.1(At-1) 0.1
 y
160

140
f(x) = 1.80751879699248 x + 103.121052631579
R² = 0.637922835746363

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
AÑO x y 1.8075x + 103.12
2001 1 100 104.9275 4.9275
2002 2 110 106.735 -3.265
2003 3 105 108.5425 3.5425
2004 4 115 110.35 -4.65
2005 5 117 112.1575 -4.8425
2006 6 120 113.965 -6.035
2007 7 105 115.7725 10.7725
2008 8 110 117.58 7.58
2009 9 115 119.3875 4.3875
2010 10 130 121.195 -8.805
2011 11 125 123.0025 -1.9975
2012 12 128 124.81 -3.19
2013 13 132 126.6175 -5.3825
2014 14 134 128.425 -5.575
2015 15 136 130.2325 -5.7675
2016 16 130 132.04 2.04
2017 17 110 133.8475 23.8475
2018 18 130 135.655 5.655
2019 19 140 137.4625 -2.5375
2020 20 150 139.27 -10.73
2021 21 141.0775
22 98% certeza 142.885
23 144.6925
24 146.5
25 148.3075
26 150.115

No se puede asegurar el aumento

xq hay datos estadisticos
años 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
ABRIL REAL 382 401 458 480 533 553.3
abril tendenc 400 436 472 508 544 580
abril ratio 0.96 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.98 0.95
0.96 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.98
promedio 0.95

y=36x+364
1 400
2 436
3 472
4 508
5 544
6 580
m h f f
1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5
6 6 6 6
7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8
9 9 9 9
10 10 10 10
11 11 11 11
12 12 12 12
 Chart Title
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5