Res

Proporción Demanda en
Promedio Móvil (PM) N=3 Error del pronóstico
(Kg)

1 2,855,651.49
2 5,963,272.22
3 1,847,774.49
4 4,535,446.48 3,555,566.07 - 979,880.41
5 2,351,712.99 4,115,497.73 1,763,784.74
6 1,259,846.24 2,911,644.65 1,651,798.41
7 7,055,138.96 2,715,668.57 - 4,339,470.39
8 3,359,589.98 3,555,566.07 195,976.08
9 2,939,641.24 3,891,525.06 951,883.83
10 6,971,149.21 4,451,456.73 - 2,519,692.49
11 3,863,528.48 4,423,460.14 559,931.66
12 6,467,210.72 4,591,439.64 - 1,875,771.07
1 6,003,927.13 5,767,296.14 - 236,631.00
2 5,327,428.30 5,444,888.78 117,460.48
3 1,183,872.96 5,932,855.38 4,748,982.43
4 3,044,244.74 4,171,742.80 1,127,498.05
5 8,287,110.69 3,185,182.00 - 5,101,928.69
6 1,691,247.08 4,171,742.80 2,480,495.72
7 7,695,174.21 4,340,867.50 - 3,354,306.71
8 1,691,247.08 5,891,177.33 4,199,930.25
9 3,044,244.74 3,692,556.12 648,311.38
10 4,650,929.47 4,143,555.35 - 507,374.12
11 2,452,308.27 3,128,807.10 676,498.83
12 2,705,995.33 3,382,494.16 676,498.83
1 2,126,745.61 3,269,744.35 1,142,998.75
2 2,812,792.58 2,428,349.73 - 384,442.84
3 1,029,070.45 2,548,511.17 1,519,440.72
4 4,665,119.39 1,989,536.21 - 2,675,583.18
5 6,860,469.70 2,835,660.81 - 4,024,808.89
6 4,870,933.48 4,184,886.52 - 686,046.97
7 6,380,236.82 5,465,507.53 - 914,729.29
8 6,723,260.30 6,037,213.33 - 686,046.97
9 2,401,164.39 5,991,476.87 3,590,312.47
10 4,390,700.61 5,168,220.51 777,519.90
11 2,058,140.91 4,505,041.77 2,446,900.86
12 3,224,420.76 2,950,001.97 - 274,418.79
1 1,494,787.23 3,224,420.76 1,729,633.53
2 4,723,527.63 2,259,116.30 - 2,464,411.34
3 2,750,408.50 3,147,578.54 397,170.04
4 5,620,399.97 2,989,574.45 - 2,630,825.52
 5 5,859,565.93 4,364,778.70 - 1,494,787.23
6 5,441,025.50 4,743,458.13 - 697,567.37
7 956,663.82 5,640,330.47 4,683,666.64
8 4,902,902.10 4,085,751.75 - 817,150.35
9 5,500,816.99 3,766,863.81 - 1,733,953.18
10 5,919,357.41 3,786,794.31 - 2,132,563.11
11 1,674,161.69 5,441,025.50 3,766,863.81
12 4,245,195.72 4,364,778.70 119,582.98
3,946,238.28

Demanda en Klgs - Carne de res (ESTACIONARIA)

9,000,000.00
8,000,000.00
7,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
5,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
3,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
1,000,000.00
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Cerdo

Proporción Demanda en
Promedio Móvil (PM) N=3 Error del pronóstico
(Kg)

1 874,801.36
2 638,361.05
3 1,559,175.00
4 2,056,552.10 1,024,112.47 - 1,032,439.63
5 835,008.56 1,418,029.38 583,020.82
6 1,058,312.89 1,483,578.55 425,265.67
7 1,058,312.89 1,316,624.51 258,311.63
8 2,018,220.01 983,878.11 - 1,034,341.90
9 1,944,002.89 1,378,281.93 - 565,720.96
10 1,412,344.08 1,673,511.93 261,167.85
11 1,979,895.61 1,791,522.33 - 188,373.29
12 1,327,371.06 1,778,747.53 451,376.47
1 479,561.58 1,573,203.58 1,093,642.00
2 916,323.84 1,262,276.09 345,952.25
3 1,989,438.94 907,752.16 - 1,081,686.78
4 2,241,539.68 1,128,441.45 - 1,113,098.23
5 808,630.82 1,715,767.49 907,136.67
 6 2,507,208.58 1,679,869.81 - 827,338.77
7 2,149,259.39 1,852,459.69 - 296,799.70
8 1,358,832.85 1,821,699.60 462,866.75
9 1,317,296.95 2,005,100.27 687,803.33
10 1,358,832.85 1,608,463.06 249,630.22
11 2,473,868.04 1,344,987.55 - 1,128,880.50
12 1,107,791.48 1,716,665.95 608,874.46
1 2,916,774.29 1,646,830.79 - 1,269,943.50
2 581,944.72 2,166,144.61 1,584,199.89
3 1,540,195.30 1,535,503.50 - 4,691.80
4 3,081,203.97 1,679,638.10 - 1,401,565.87
5 1,399,705.75 1,734,448.00 334,742.25
6 1,508,666.84 2,007,035.01 498,368.17
7 553,205.11 1,996,525.52 1,443,320.41
8 932,368.32 1,153,859.23 221,490.91
9 935,576.17 998,080.09 62,503.91
10 2,809,331.82 807,049.87 - 2,002,281.96
11 2,409,245.60 1,559,092.11 - 850,153.50
12 913,162.71 2,051,384.53 1,138,221.82
1 518,965.18 2,043,913.38 1,524,948.20
2 3,029,684.14 1,280,457.83 - 1,749,226.31
3 1,218,627.17 1,487,270.68 268,643.51
4 3,329,298.04 1,589,092.16 - 1,740,205.88
5 1,084,338.38 2,525,869.78 1,441,531.40
6 3,284,534.22 1,877,421.20 - 1,407,113.02
7 1,732,177.41 2,566,056.88 833,879.47
8 1,701,475.69 2,033,683.34 332,207.64
9 2,948,959.61 2,239,395.77 - 709,563.83
10 1,701,475.69 2,127,537.57 426,061.88
11 1,514,477.29 2,117,303.66 602,826.37
12 2,471,316.26 2,054,970.86 - 416,345.40
1,895,756.42

Demanda en Klgs - Carne cerdo (ESTACIONARIA)

3,500,000.00

3,000,000.00

2,500,000.00

2,000,000.00

1,500,000.00

1,000,000.00

500,000.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
 1,000,000.00

500,000.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Pollo

Proporción Demanda en
Regresión Lineal Simple y=mx+b x
(Kg)

Jan-15 582,026.30 1,288,013.00 1

Feb-15 776,035.07 1,301,006.00 2
Mar-15 1,008,845.59 1,313,999.00 3
Apr-15 1,164,052.60 1,326,992.00 4
May-15 1,358,061.37 1,339,985.00 5
Jun-15 1,474,466.63 1,352,978.00 6
Jul-15 1,552,070.14 1,365,971.00 7
Aug-15 1,668,475.40 1,378,964.00 8
Sep-15 1,629,673.65 1,391,957.00 9
Oct-15 1,823,682.41 1,404,950.00 10
Nov-15 1,940,087.67 1,417,943.00 11
Dec-15 1,784,880.66 1,430,936.00 12
Jan-16 1,333,351.27 1,443,929.00 13
Feb-16 1,444,463.88 1,456,922.00 14
Mar-16 1,583,354.63 1,469,915.00 15
Apr-16 1,611,132.78 1,482,908.00 16
May-16 1,527,798.33 1,495,901.00 17
Jun-16 1,611,132.78 1,508,894.00 18
Jul-16 1,666,689.09 1,521,887.00 19
Aug-16 1,416,685.72 1,534,880.00 20
Sep-16 1,500,020.18 1,547,873.00 21
Oct-16 1,597,243.71 1,560,866.00 22
Nov-16 1,666,689.09 1,573,859.00 23
Dec-16 1,750,023.54 1,586,852.00 24
Jan-17 1,420,369.55 1,599,845.00 25
Feb-17 1,512,006.29 1,612,838.00 26
Mar-17 1,466,187.92 1,625,831.00 27
Apr-17 1,557,824.67 1,638,824.00 28
May-17 1,603,643.04 1,651,817.00 29
Jun-17 1,626,552.22 1,664,810.00 30
Jul-17 1,672,370.60 1,677,803.00 31
Aug-17 1,649,461.41 1,690,796.00 32
Sep-17 1,741,098.16 1,703,789.00 33
Oct-17 1,764,007.34 1,716,782.00 34
Nov-17 1,764,007.34 1,729,775.00 35
Dec-17 1,718,188.97 1,742,768.00 36
Jan-18 1,517,256.74 1,755,761.00 37
Feb-18 1,556,160.76 1,768,754.00 38
Mar-18 1,711,776.84 1,781,747.00 39
 Apr-18 1,750,680.85 1,794,740.00 40
May-18 1,789,584.87 1,807,733.00 41
Jun-18 1,750,680.85 1,820,726.00 42
Jul-18 1,828,488.89 1,833,719.00 43
Aug-18 1,828,488.89 1,846,712.00 44
Sep-18 1,867,392.91 1,859,705.00 45
Oct-18 1,925,748.94 1,872,698.00 46
Nov-18 1,945,200.95 1,885,691.00 47
Dec-18 2,042,461.00 1,898,684.00 48
1,911,677.00
1,176

Demanda en Klgs - Pollo (TENDENCIA LINEAL CRECIENTE)

2,500,000.00

2,000,000.00

1,500,000.00

1,000,000.00

500,000.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 4

https://www.fedegan.org.co/estadisticas/produccion-0

048-Producción de Carne - Colombia

Producción Carne res-
Colombia en
Año Toneladas/Año PMS N03
2014 941,344
2015 942,285
2016 910,052
2017 905,582 931,227
2018 935,025 919,306
2019 932,813 916,886
924,473
https://www.3tres3.com/articulos/2018-ano-de-record-para-el-sector-porcino-colombiano_40881/#:~:text=En%20la

Producción Carne cerdo-

Colombia en
Año Toneladas/Año PMS N03
2014 277,996
 2015 319,283
2016 356,354
2017 371,347 317,878
2018 409,789 348,995
2019 379,163 379,163
386,766
https://fenavi.org/informacion-estadistica/

Producción Pollo-
Colombia en
Año Toneladas/Año PMS N03
2014 1,424,386
2015 1,424,387
2016 1,478,924
2017 1,563,569 1,442,566
2018 1,629,648 1,488,960
2019 1,693,178 1,557,380
1,628,798
 Desviación Media Absoluta
Error Medio (EM) Error Cuadrático Medio (MSE)
(MAD)

(244,970.10) 244,970.10 240,041,405,315.58

352,756.95 352,756.95 622,187,322,577.98
275,299.73 275,299.73 454,739,663,620.97
(619,924.34) 619,924.34 2,690,143,329,542.50
24,497.01 24,497.01 4,800,828,106.31
105,764.87 105,764.87 100,675,869,222.61
(251,969.25) 251,969.25 634,885,023,038.75
50,902.88 50,902.88 28,502,133,469.75
(156,314.26) 156,314.26 293,209,760,125.61
(236,631.00) 236,631.00 55,994,227,899.82
58,730.24 58,730.24 6,898,481,706.43
1,582,994.14 1,582,994.14 7,517,611,366,822.89
281,874.51 281,874.51 317,812,964,934.58
(1,020,385.74) 1,020,385.74 5,205,935,272,110.82
413,415.95 413,415.95 1,025,476,500,188.90
(479,186.67) 479,186.67 1,607,339,070,156.62
524,991.28 524,991.28 2,204,926,760,785.16
72,034.60 72,034.60 46,700,849,569.55
(50,737.41) 50,737.41 25,742,850,159.70
61,499.89 61,499.89 41,604,606,318.71
56,374.90 56,374.90 38,137,555,792.15
1,142,998.75 1,142,998.75 1,306,446,137,750.56
(192,221.42) 192,221.42 73,898,149,676.20
506,480.24 506,480.24 769,566,695,674.38
(668,895.80) 668,895.80 1,789,686,340,707.08
(804,961.78) 804,961.78 3,239,817,318,415.80
(114,341.16) 114,341.16 78,443,407,438.40
(130,675.61) 130,675.61 119,532,811,334.70
(85,755.87) 85,755.87 58,832,555,578.80
398,923.61 398,923.61 1,432,260,407,369.70
77,751.99 77,751.99 60,453,719,332.53
222,445.53 222,445.53 544,302,164,704.38
(22,868.23) 22,868.23 6,275,472,595.07
1,729,633.53 1,729,633.53 2,991,632,153,745.05
(1,232,205.67) 1,232,205.67 3,036,661,617,601.95
132,390.01 132,390.01 52,581,347,799.57
(657,706.38) 657,706.38 1,730,310,726,094.58
 (298,957.45) 298,957.45 446,877,770,169.05
(116,261.23) 116,261.23 81,100,039,771.42
669,095.23 669,095.23 3,133,819,029,534.73
(102,143.79) 102,143.79 83,466,836,850.46
(192,661.46) 192,661.46 334,065,959,744.16
(213,256.31) 213,256.31 454,782,541,392.49
342,442.16 342,442.16 1,289,932,996,218.89
9,965.25 9,965.25 1,191,674,053.78
377,473.20 1,028,428,971,444.87

ACIONARIA) Error del pronóstico (PM) N=3 - Demanda ca

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 3
-2000000

-4000000

-6000000
8 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Error del pronóstico

Desviación Media Absoluta

Error Medio (EM) Error Cuadrático Medio (MSE)
(MAD)

(258,109.91) 258,109.91 266,482,897,202.45

116,604.16 116,604.16 67,982,656,455.24
70,877.61 70,877.61 30,141,814,347.86
36,901.66 36,901.66 9,532,128,105.81
(129,292.74) 129,292.74 133,732,896,719.86
(62,857.88) 62,857.88 35,560,023,041.36
26,116.79 26,116.79 6,820,864,697.71
(17,124.84) 17,124.84 3,225,863,161.89
37,614.71 37,614.71 16,978,393,055.28
1,093,642.00 1,093,642.00 1,196,052,827,463.03
172,976.13 172,976.13 59,841,479,846.76
(360,562.26) 360,562.26 390,015,428,254.51
(278,274.56) 278,274.56 309,746,917,983.23
181,427.33 181,427.33 164,579,386,734.14
 (137,889.80) 137,889.80 114,081,573,551.18
(42,399.96) 42,399.96 12,584,294,581.58
57,858.34 57,858.34 26,780,703,774.32
76,422.59 76,422.59 52,563,712,929.57
24,963.02 24,963.02 6,231,524,506.71
(102,625.50) 102,625.50 115,851,925,118.32
50,739.54 50,739.54 30,894,009,396.75
(1,269,943.50) 1,269,943.50 1,612,756,498,410.45
792,099.94 792,099.94 1,254,844,638,338.34
(1,563.93) 1,563.93 7,337,651.74
(350,391.47) 350,391.47 491,096,722,333.88
66,948.45 66,948.45 22,410,474,461.87
83,061.36 83,061.36 41,395,138,844.90
206,188.63 206,188.63 297,596,259,404.20
27,686.36 27,686.36 6,132,277,634.55
6,944.88 6,944.88 434,082,153.16
(200,228.20) 200,228.20 400,913,302,758.99
(77,286.68) 77,286.68 65,705,542,369.45
94,851.82 94,851.82 107,962,409,179.23
1,524,948.20 1,524,948.20 2,325,467,021,597.63
(874,613.15) 874,613.15 1,529,896,339,681.69
89,547.84 89,547.84 24,056,445,221.40
(435,051.47) 435,051.47 757,079,128,925.38
288,306.28 288,306.28 415,602,558,274.80
(234,518.84) 234,518.84 329,994,508,330.03
119,125.64 119,125.64 99,336,423,933.21
41,525.96 41,525.96 13,795,239,765.91
(78,840.43) 78,840.43 55,942,314,997.43
42,606.19 42,606.19 18,152,872,400.77
54,802.40 54,802.40 33,036,330,323.78
(34,695.45) 34,695.45 14,445,290,714.72
229,579.08 288,172,010,636.33

ACIONARIA) Error del pronóstico (PM) N=3 - Demanda ca

2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
-500000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
-1000000
-1500000
-2000000
-2500000

8 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Error del pronóstico

 -1000000
-1500000
-2000000
-2500000

8 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Error del pronóstico

y xy x^2

582,026 582,026 1
776,035 1,552,070 4
1,008,846 3,026,537 9
1,164,053 4,656,210 16
1,358,061 6,790,307 25
1,474,467 8,846,800 36
1,552,070 10,864,491 49
1,668,475 13,347,803 64
1,629,674 14,667,063 81
1,823,682 18,236,824 100
1,940,088 21,340,964 121
1,784,881 21,418,568 144
1,333,351 17,333,567 169
1,444,464 20,222,494 196
1,583,355 23,750,319 225
1,611,133 25,778,125 256
1,527,798 25,972,572 289
1,611,133 29,000,390 324
1,666,689 31,667,093 361
1,416,686 28,333,714 400
1,500,020 31,500,424 441
1,597,244 35,139,362 484
1,666,689 38,333,849 529
1,750,024 42,000,565 576
1,420,370 35,509,239 625
1,512,006 39,312,164 676
1,466,188 39,587,074 729
1,557,825 43,619,091 784
1,603,643 46,505,648 841
1,626,552 48,796,567 900
1,672,371 51,843,488 961
1,649,461 52,782,765 1,024
1,741,098 57,456,239 1,089
1,764,007 59,976,250 1,156
1,764,007 61,740,257 1,225
1,718,189 61,854,803 1,296
1,517,257 56,138,499 1,369
1,556,161 59,134,109 1,444
1,711,777 66,759,297 1,521
 1,750,681 70,027,234 1,600
1,789,585 73,372,980 1,681
1,750,681 73,528,596 1,764
1,828,489 78,625,022 1,849
1,828,489 80,453,511 1,936
1,867,393 84,032,681 2,025
1,925,749 88,584,451 2,116
1,945,201 91,424,445 2,209
2,042,461 98,038,128 2,304

76,480,583 1,993,464,673 38,024

NEAL CRECIENTE) Error del pronóstico / Regresión Lineal - Dem

600,000.00
400,000.00
200,000.00
-
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-1
(200,000.00)
(400,000.00)
(600,000.00)
(800,000.00)
8 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Error

Toneladas (Kg)
Participación Región Meta Participación Granja de Juan- Participación Granja de Juan-

35% Región Meta 15% Región Meta 15%

329,470 49,421 49,420,560
329,800 49,470 49,469,963
318,518 47,778 47,777,730
316,954 47,543 47,543,055
327,259 49,089 49,088,813
326,485 48,973 48,972,683

ano_40881/#:~:text=En%20la%20gr%C3%A1fica%201%20podemos,por%20encima%20que%20en%202017.

Toneladas (Kg)
Participación Región Meta Participación Granja de Juan- Participación Granja de Juan-

35% Región Meta 15% Región Meta 15%

97,299 14,595 14,594,790
 111,749 16,762 16,762,358
124,724 18,709 18,708,585
129,971 19,496 19,495,718
143,426 21,514 21,513,923
132,707 19,906 19,906,075

Toneladas (Kg)
Participación Región Meta Participación Granja de Juan- Participación Granja de Juan-

35% Región Meta 15% Región Meta 15%

498,535 74,780 74,780,265
498,535 74,780 74,780,318
517,623 77,644 77,643,510
547,249 82,087 82,087,373
570,377 85,557 85,556,520
592,612 88,892 88,891,845
 ALFA 0.25
Suavización
Error % Medio Error del pronóstico
Exponencial Simple Error del pronóstico
Absoluto (MAPE) Absoluto
(SES)
4,039,157.50 1,183,506.01
3,743,281.00 - 2,219,991.22
4,298,278.80 2,450,504.31
0.05 979,880.41 3,685,652.72 - 849,793.75
0.15 1,763,784.74 3,898,101.16 1,546,388.17
0.22 1,651,798.41 3,511,504.12 2,251,657.88
0.09 4,339,470.39 2,948,589.65 - 4,106,549.31
0.01 195,976.08 3,975,226.98 615,637.00
0.04 951,883.83 3,821,317.73 881,676.49
0.04 2,519,692.49 3,600,898.61 - 3,370,250.61
0.01 559,931.66 4,443,461.26 579,932.78
0.02 1,875,771.07 4,298,478.06 - 2,168,732.65
0.04 236,631.00 4,840,661.23 - 1,163,265.91
0.01 117,460.48 5,131,477.70 - 195,950.60
1.34 4,748,982.43 5,180,465.35 3,996,592.40
0.09 1,127,498.05 4,181,317.25 1,137,072.51
0.12 5,101,928.69 3,897,049.13 - 4,390,061.56
0.24 2,480,495.72 4,994,564.52 3,303,317.44
0.06 3,354,306.71 4,168,735.16 - 3,526,439.05
0.31 4,199,930.25 5,050,344.92 3,359,097.84
0.02 648,311.38 4,210,570.46 1,166,325.72
0.01 507,374.12 3,918,989.03 - 731,940.44
0.03 676,498.83 4,101,974.14 1,649,665.88
0.02 676,498.83 3,689,557.67 983,562.34
0.54 1,142,998.75 3,443,667.09 1,316,921.48
0.07 384,442.84 3,114,436.72 301,644.14
0.49 1,519,440.72 3,039,025.68 2,009,955.23
0.14 2,675,583.18 2,536,536.87 - 2,128,582.52
0.12 4,024,808.89 3,068,682.50 - 3,791,787.19
0.02 686,046.97 4,016,629.30 - 854,304.18
0.02 914,729.29 4,230,205.35 - 2,150,031.47
0.01 686,046.97 4,767,713.22 - 1,955,547.09
0.17 3,590,312.47 5,256,599.99 2,855,435.59
0.02 777,519.90 4,542,741.09 152,040.48
0.11 2,446,900.86 4,504,730.97 2,446,590.06
0.01 274,418.79 3,893,083.45 668,662.70
1.16 1,729,633.53 3,725,917.78 2,231,130.55
0.26 2,464,411.34 3,168,135.14 - 1,555,392.49
0.05 397,170.04 3,556,983.26 806,574.77
0.12 2,630,825.52 3,355,339.57 - 2,265,060.40
 0.05 1,494,787.23 3,921,604.67 - 1,937,961.25
0.02 697,567.37 4,406,094.99 - 1,034,930.52
0.70 4,683,666.64 4,664,827.61 3,708,163.79
0.02 817,150.35 3,737,786.67 - 1,165,115.43
0.04 1,733,953.18 4,029,065.53 - 1,471,751.47
0.04 2,132,563.11 4,397,003.39 - 1,522,354.02
0.20 3,766,863.81 4,777,591.90 3,103,430.20
0.00 119,582.98 4,001,734.35 - 243,461.38
4,062,599.69 4,062,599.69

nóstico (PM) N=3 - Demanda carne res Error del pronóstico (SES) - Dem
5,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
3,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
1,000,000.00
-
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
-1,000,000.00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
-2,000,000.00
-3,000,000.00
-4,000,000.00
-5,000,000.00

Error del pronóstico Error del pr

ALFA 0.25
Suavización
Error % Medio Error del pronóstico
Exponencial Simple Error del pronóstico
Absoluto (MAPE) Absoluto
(SES)
1,658,076.09 783,274.73
1,462,257.40 823,896.36
1,256,283.32 - 302,891.69
0.13 1,032,439.63 1,332,006.24 - 724,545.86
0.14 583,020.82 1,513,142.70 678,134.14
0.07 425,265.67 1,343,609.17 285,296.28
0.03 258,311.63 1,272,285.10 213,972.21
0.06 1,034,341.90 1,218,792.04 - 799,427.97
0.03 565,720.96 1,418,649.04 - 525,353.86
0.02 261,167.85 1,549,987.50 137,643.42
0.01 188,373.29 1,515,576.65 - 464,318.97
0.03 451,376.47 1,631,656.39 304,285.33
2.28 1,093,642.00 1,555,585.06 1,076,023.47
0.19 345,952.25 1,286,579.19 370,255.35
0.18 1,081,686.78 1,194,015.35 - 795,423.59
0.12 1,113,098.23 1,392,871.25 - 848,668.44
0.22 907,136.67 1,605,038.36 796,407.54
 0.05 827,338.77 1,405,936.47 - 1,101,272.11
0.02 296,799.70 1,681,254.50 - 468,004.90
0.04 462,866.75 1,798,255.72 439,422.88
0.06 687,803.33 1,688,400.00 371,103.06
0.02 249,630.22 1,595,624.24 236,791.39
0.04 1,128,880.50 1,536,426.39 - 937,441.65
0.05 608,874.46 1,770,786.80 662,995.32
0.44 1,269,943.50 1,605,037.97 - 1,311,736.32
1.36 1,584,199.89 1,932,972.05 1,351,027.33
0.00 4,691.80 1,595,215.22 55,019.93
0.11 1,401,565.87 1,581,460.24 - 1,499,743.73
0.05 334,742.25 1,956,396.17 556,690.42
0.06 498,368.17 1,817,223.57 308,556.73
0.37 1,443,320.41 1,740,084.38 1,186,879.28
0.03 221,490.91 1,443,364.56 510,996.24
0.01 62,503.91 1,315,615.50 380,039.33
0.07 2,002,281.96 1,220,605.67 - 1,588,726.15
0.03 850,153.50 1,617,787.21 - 791,458.39
0.10 1,138,221.82 1,815,651.81 902,489.09
2.94 1,524,948.20 1,590,029.53 1,071,064.36
0.29 1,749,226.31 1,322,263.45 - 1,707,420.69
0.07 268,643.51 1,749,118.62 530,491.45
0.13 1,740,205.88 1,616,495.76 - 1,712,802.29
0.27 1,441,531.40 2,044,696.33 960,357.95
0.07 1,407,113.02 1,804,606.84 - 1,479,927.38
0.07 833,879.47 2,174,588.68 442,411.27
0.02 332,207.64 2,063,985.87 362,510.17
0.03 709,563.83 1,973,358.32 - 975,601.28
0.03 426,061.88 2,217,258.64 515,782.95
0.04 602,826.37 2,088,312.91 573,835.61
0.01 416,345.40 1,944,854.00 - 526,462.26
2,076,469.57 2,076,469.57

nóstico (PM) N=3 - Demanda carne cerdo Error del pronóstico (SES) - Dem
2,000,000.00
1,500,000.00
1,000,000.00
500,000.00
-
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 1 3 5 7 9
-500,000.00 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

-1,000,000.00
-1,500,000.00
-2,000,000.00

Error del pronóstico Error del pr

 -1,000,000.00
-1,500,000.00
-2,000,000.00

Error del pronóstico Error del pr

Error

(705,986.70)
(524,970.93)
(305,153.41)
(162,939.40)
18,076.37
121,488.63
186,099.14
289,511.40 Gráfico de Regresión Lineal Simple - Pollo
237,716.65 2,500,000
418,732.41
522,144.67 2,000,000
353,944.66 f(x) = 12992.8790931035 x + 1275019.93096896
R² = 0.436097593265629
(110,577.73) 1,500,000
Axis Title

(12,458.12)
113,439.63 1,000,000
128,224.78
31,897.33 500,000
102,238.78
144,802.09 -
(118,194.28) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
(47,852.82) Axis Title
36,377.71
92,830.09
163,171.54
(179,475.45) b= 1,275,019.93
(100,831.71)
(159,643.08)
(80,999.33) m= 12,992.88
(48,173.96)
(38,257.78)
(5,432.40)
(41,334.59)
37,309.16
47,225.34
34,232.34
(24,579.03)
(238,504.26)
(212,593.24)
(69,970.16)
 (44,059.15)
(18,148.13)
(70,045.15)
(5,230.11)
(18,223.11)
7,687.91
53,050.94
59,509.95
143,777.00

(1,911,677.00)

onóstico / Regresión Lineal - Demanda pollo Error del pronóstico / Suavización

Demanda pollo
800,000
600,000
400,000

5 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 200,000
-
Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17
(200,000)
(400,000)
(600,000)

Error Error de pronóstic

20en%202017.
Desviación Media Error Cuadrático Medio Error % Medio Absoluto
Absoluta (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)

1.41
0.31
0.78
849,793.75 180,537,355,540.11 0.20
1,546,388.17 622,187,322,577.98 0.33
2,251,657.88 454,739,663,620.97 0.46
4,106,549.31 2,690,143,329,542.50 0.06
615,637.00 4,800,828,106.31 0.15
881,676.49 100,675,869,222.61 0.14
3,370,250.61 634,885,023,038.75 0.05
579,932.78 28,502,133,469.75 0.10
2,168,732.65 293,209,760,125.61 0.06
1,163,265.91 55,994,227,899.82 0.81
195,950.60 6,898,481,706.43 0.48
3,996,592.40 7,517,611,366,822.89 1.46
1,137,072.51 317,812,964,934.58 0.34
4,390,061.56 5,205,935,272,110.82 0.09
3,303,317.44 1,025,476,500,188.90 0.49
3,526,439.05 1,607,339,070,156.62 0.08
3,359,097.84 2,204,926,760,785.16 0.37
1,166,325.72 46,700,849,569.55 0.15
731,940.44 25,742,850,159.70 0.08
1,649,665.88 41,604,606,318.71 0.15
983,562.34 38,137,555,792.15 0.11
1,316,921.48 1,306,446,137,750.56 1.62
301,644.14 73,898,149,676.20 0.55
2,009,955.23 769,566,695,674.38 0.98
2,128,582.52 1,789,686,340,707.08 0.14
3,791,787.19 3,239,817,318,415.80 0.09
854,304.18 78,443,407,438.40 0.14
2,150,031.47 119,532,811,334.70 0.09
1,955,547.09 58,832,555,578.80 0.09
2,855,435.59 1,432,260,407,369.70 0.24
152,040.48 60,453,719,332.53 0.10
2,446,590.06 544,302,164,704.38 0.20
668,662.70 6,275,472,595.07 0.10
2,231,130.55 2,991,632,153,745.05 2.49
1,555,392.49 3,036,661,617,601.95 0.34
806,574.77 52,581,347,799.57 0.43
2,265,060.40 1,730,310,726,094.58 0.15
 1,937,961.25 446,877,770,169.05 0.13
1,034,930.52 81,100,039,771.42 0.13
3,708,163.79 3,133,819,029,534.73 0.70
1,165,115.43 83,466,836,850.46 0.10
1,471,751.47 334,065,959,744.16 0.08
1,522,354.02 454,782,541,392.49 0.07
3,103,430.20 1,289,932,996,218.89 0.26
243,461.38 1,191,674,053.78 0.08
1,858,905.31 1,027,106,659,227.64 0.38

Error del pronóstico (SES) - Demanda carne res

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Error del pronóstico

Desviación Media Error Cuadrático Medio Error % Medio Absoluto

Absoluta (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)

1.90
1.15
0.27
724,545.86 131,241,676,335.16 0.16
678,134.14 67,982,656,455.24 0.36
285,296.28 30,141,814,347.86 0.21
213,972.21 9,532,128,105.81 0.17
799,427.97 133,732,896,719.86 0.08
525,353.86 35,560,023,041.36 0.08
137,643.42 6,820,864,697.71 0.11
464,318.97 3,225,863,161.89 0.07
304,285.33 16,978,393,055.28 0.10
1,076,023.47 1,196,052,827,463.03 3.24
370,255.35 59,841,479,846.76 0.70
795,423.59 390,015,428,254.51 0.20
848,668.44 309,746,917,983.23 0.16
796,407.54 164,579,386,734.14 0.40
 1,101,272.11 114,081,573,551.18 0.09
468,004.90 12,584,294,581.58 0.11
439,422.88 26,780,703,774.32 0.17
371,103.06 52,563,712,929.57 0.14
236,791.39 6,231,524,506.71 0.12
937,441.65 115,851,925,118.32 0.06
662,995.32 30,894,009,396.75 0.13
1,311,736.32 1,612,756,498,410.45 0.55
1,351,027.33 1,254,844,638,338.34 1.66
55,019.93 7,337,651.74 0.35
1,499,743.73 491,096,722,333.88 0.13
556,690.42 22,410,474,461.87 0.28
308,556.73 41,395,138,844.90 0.20
1,186,879.28 297,596,259,404.20 0.45
510,996.24 6,132,277,634.55 0.19
380,039.33 434,082,153.16 0.16
1,588,726.15 400,913,302,758.99 0.04
791,458.39 65,705,542,369.45 0.06
902,489.09 107,962,409,179.23 0.17
1,071,064.36 2,325,467,021,597.63 3.06
1,707,420.69 1,529,896,339,681.69 0.22
530,491.45 24,056,445,221.40 0.48
1,712,802.29 757,079,128,925.38 0.12
960,357.95 415,602,558,274.80 0.38
1,479,927.38 329,994,508,330.03 0.09
442,411.27 99,336,423,933.21 0.18
362,510.17 13,795,239,765.91 0.15
975,601.28 55,942,314,997.43 0.07
515,782.95 18,152,872,400.77 0.13
573,835.61 33,036,330,323.78 0.13
526,462.26 14,445,290,714.72 0.07
745,307.07 285,166,650,172.62 0.41

Error del pronóstico (SES) - Demanda carne cerdo

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Error del pronóstico

 Error del pronóstico

Mes

Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
egresión Lineal Simple - Pollo Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
019.93096896 Nov-15
Dec-15
Column H Jan-16
Linear (Column H) Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
30 40 50 60 Jul-16
Title Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
 Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Error del pronóstico / Suavización Exponencial Doble- Mar-19
Demanda pollo Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
eb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19

Error de pronóstico
PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE
Desviación MSE 1,014,114.87
Desviación MAD 471,841.51

SUAVIZACIÓN EXP. SIMPLE

Desviación MSE 1,013,462.71
Desviación MAD 2,323,631.63
PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE
Desviación MSE 536,816.55
Desviación MAD 286,973.84

SUAVIZACIÓN EXP. SIMPLE

Desviación MSE 534,009.97
Desviación MAD 931,633.84
 SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL DOBLE

Proporción Demanda en
St Gt PRONOSTICO(Ft)
(Kg)
Periodo
1,275,019.93 12,992.88
1 582,026.30 1,111,516.18 - 48,780.94 1,288,013
2 776,035.07 991,060.20 - 73,867.21 1,062,735
3 1,008,845.59 940,106.14 - 65,847.60 917,193
4 1,164,052.60 946,707.06 - 40,490.62 874,259
5 1,358,061.37 1,019,177.67 - 954.19 906,216
6 1,474,466.63 1,132,284.27 38,967.09 1,018,223
7 1,552,070.14 1,266,456.05 72,288.73 1,171,251
8 1,668,475.40 1,421,177.43 101,140.16 1,338,745
9 1,629,673.65 1,549,156.61 110,533.81 1,522,318
10 1,823,682.41 1,700,688.42 124,883.11 1,659,690
11 1,940,087.67 1,854,200.57 134,903.28 1,825,572
12 1,784,880.66 1,938,048.05 117,033.75 1,989,104
13 1,333,351.27 1,874,649.16 53,882.33 2,055,082
14 1,444,463.88 1,807,514.59 11,526.41 1,928,531
15 1,583,354.63 1,760,119.40 - 9,096.15 1,819,041
16 1,611,132.78 1,716,050.64 - 21,336.56 1,751,023
17 1,527,798.33 1,652,985.14 - 35,941.69 1,694,714
18 1,611,132.78 1,615,565.78 - 36,458.87 1,617,043
19 1,666,689.09 1,601,002.45 - 28,795.43 1,579,107
20 1,416,685.72 1,533,326.70 - 42,403.55 1,572,207
21 1,500,020.18 1,493,197.41 - 41,607.56 1,490,923
22 1,597,243.71 1,488,003.31 - 28,862.84 1,451,590
23 1,666,689.09 1,511,027.62 - 10,702.34 1,459,140
24 1,750,023.54 1,562,749.85 11,146.26 1,500,325
25 1,420,369.55 1,535,514.47 - 2,287.32 1,573,896
26 1,512,006.29 1,527,921.94 - 4,144.14 1,533,227
27 1,466,187.92 1,509,380.33 - 9,183.26 1,523,778
28 1,557,824.67 1,514,603.97 - 4,140.84 1,500,197
29 1,603,643.04 1,533,758.11 4,012.40 1,510,463
30 1,626,552.22 1,559,965.94 11,780.80 1,537,771
31 1,672,370.60 1,596,902.70 20,585.39 1,571,747
32 1,649,461.41 1,625,481.42 23,383.05 1,617,488
33 1,741,098.16 1,671,922.90 31,453.50 1,648,864
34 1,764,007.34 1,718,534.13 36,758.71 1,703,376
35 1,764,007.34 1,757,471.47 37,521.23 1,755,293
36 1,718,188.97 1,775,791.76 30,800.90 1,794,993
37 1,517,256.74 1,734,258.68 5,484.01 1,806,593
38 1,556,160.76 1,693,847.21 - 10,579.41 1,739,743
39 1,711,776.84 1,690,395.06 - 8,084.87 1,683,268
40 1,750,680.85 1,699,402.85 - 2,102.44 1,682,310
41 1,789,584.87 1,720,371.53 5,972.45 1,697,300
42 1,750,680.85 1,732,428.20 8,101.93 1,726,344
43 1,828,488.89 1,762,519.82 15,798.32 1,740,530
44 1,828,488.89 1,790,860.83 20,188.26 1,778,318
45 1,867,392.91 1,825,135.05 25,118.35 1,811,049
46 1,925,748.94 1,869,127.28 31,724.21 1,850,253
47 1,945,200.95 1,911,938.85 35,604.78 1,900,851
48 2,042,461.00 1,971,272.98 43,910.05 1,947,544
49 2,015,183
50 2,059,093
51 2,103,003
52 3,815,495
53 2,190,823
54 2,234,733
55 2,278,643
56 2,322,553
57 2,366,463
58 2,410,374
59 2,454,284
60 2,498,194
LE

Error de pronóstico Error

705,987
286,700
(91,653)
(289,794)
(451,845)
(456,243)
(380,819)
(329,731)
(107,356)
(163,992)
(114,516)
204,223
721,731
484,068
235,686
139,890
166,916
5,911
(87,582)
155,521
(9,097)
(145,654)
(207,549)
(249,698)
153,527
21,221
57,590
(57,628)
(93,180)
(88,782)
(100,624)
(31,973)
(92,234)
(60,631)
(8,714)
76,804
289,336
183,582
(28,509)
(68,371)
(92,284)
(24,337)
(87,959)
(50,171)
(56,344)
(75,496)
(44,349)
(94,917)
 SED
Desviación
Media
Absoluta
(MAD)

Alfa 0.25 705,986.51

Beta 0.35 143,350.09
m 12,992.88 30,550.87
b 1,275,019.93 72,448.52
90,368.99
76,040.53
54,402.68
41,216.33
SED 11,928.45
Desviación MSE 125,750.38 16,399.20
Desviación MAD 38,779.52 10,410.56
17,018.60
RL 55,517.73
Desviación MSE 126,211.86 34,576.26
Desviación MAD 174,143.82 15,712.42
8,743.15
9,818.57
328.37
4,609.59
7,776.06
433.19
6,620.63
9,023.85
10,404.09
6,141.06
816.19
2,132.96
2,058.13
3,213.10
2,959.39
3,245.93
999.17
2,794.96
1,783.26
248.99
2,133.44
7,819.89
4,831.10
 731.00
1,709.27
2,250.84
579.45
2,045.55
1,140.24
1,252.08
1,641.21
943.61
1,977.45
31,023.61
 RL
Desviación Error %
Error Cuadrático Medio Media Error Cuadrático Medio Medio
(MSE) Absoluta (MSE) Absoluto
(MAD) (MAPE)
-
498,416,949,448.01 705986.697917 498,417,217,635.28 -
41,098,494,675.92 524970.930556 137,797,238,964.18 -
2,800,066,142.19 305153.409722 31,039,534,488.37 -
20,995,149,957.58 162939.395833 6,637,311,678.63 -
40,832,769,678.03 18076.3715278 65,351,041.52 -
34,692,969,386.11 121488.631944 2,459,914,615.29 -
20,717,564,139.43 186099.138889 4,947,555,642.17 -
13,590,285,362.19 289511.399306 10,477,106,290.98 -
1,280,591,370.71 237716.645833 6,278,800,411.81 -
2,689,337,421.64 418732.413194 17,533,683,385.96 -
1,192,177,004.23 522144.673611 24,785,005,470.95 -
3,475,592,340.92 353944.659722 10,439,735,178.82 -
40,068,842,240.60 110577.730512 940,571,883.48 -
16,737,246,739.57 12458.1247216 11,086,062.26 -
3,703,204,111.25 113439.632517 857,903,348.37 -
1,223,084,046.40 128224.783964 1,027,599,701.42 -
1,638,874,501.34 31897.3296214 59,849,390.41 -
1,940,886.55 102238.783964 580,709,385.92 -
403,717,788.69 144802.08686 1,103,560,229.42 -
1,209,343,670.02 118194.276169 698,494,345.96 -
3,940,759.32 47852.8218263 109,042,502.70 -
964,320,302.04 36377.7082405 60,151,711.67 -
1,872,888,192.67 92830.0868597 374,670,653.32 -
2,597,884,153.67 163171.541203 1,109,372,994.10 -
942,816,160.47 179475.452409 1,288,457,520.70 -
17,320,183.56 100831.707403 391,039,739.15 -
122,836,798.69 159643.079906 943,922,702.29 -
118,604,989.80 80999.3349001 234,317,580.51 -
299,396,398.80 48173.9623972 80,025,194.93 -
262,739,777.31 38257.7761457 48,788,581.19 -
326,618,096.41 5432.40364277 951,968.04 -
31,946,659.84 41334.5898942 53,392,135.05 -
257,789,443.73 37309.1551116 42,181,001.67 -
108,120,924.08 47225.3413631 65,595,084.32 -
2,169,785.58 34232.3413631 33,481,519.86 -
163,855,897.84 24579.0311398 16,781,354.77 -
2,262,575,061.69 238504.259494 1,537,413,021.53 -
886,903,317.94 212593.240506 1,189,365,418.66 -
 20,840,133.12 69970.164557 125,533,946.88 -
116,863,701.76 44059.1455696 48,530,207.71 -
207,717,579.57 18148.1265823 8,033,036.55 -
14,101,981.43 70045.1455696 116,817,200.43 -
179,924,269.95 5230.10759494 636,140.13 -
57,206,912.05 18223.1075949 7,547,310.24 -
70,547,245.13 7687.91139241 1,313,421.81 -
123,903,863.28 53050.9398734 61,182,656.99 -
41,848,403.48 59509.9493671 75,349,661.14 -
187,693,864.02 143776.996835 430,663,017.06 -
15,813,157,828.51 139,315.05 15,929,433,050.72
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62 b = SUM(Y) * SUM(X^2) - SUM(X) * SUM(XY) / n SUM(X^2) - SUM(
63
64
65 m = n * SUM(XY)-(SUM(X)SUM(Y)) / n * SUM(X^2)-SUM(X)^2
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
XY) / n SUM(X^2) - SUM(X)^2

SUM(X^2)-SUM(X)^2
Tabla 1. Cantidades estimadas de producción para doce meses
Carne res
Mes Demanda (Kg)

Jan-19 3,946,238
Feb-19 3,946,238
Mar-19 3,946,238
Apr-19 3,946,238
May-19 3,946,238
Jun-19 3,946,238
Jul-19 3,946,238
Aug-19 3,946,238
Sep-19 3,946,238
Oct-19 3,946,238
Nov-19 3,946,238
Dec-19 3,946,238

Carne cerdo
Mes Demanda (Kg)

Jan-19 1,895,756
Feb-19 1,895,756
Mar-19 1,895,756
Apr-19 1,895,756
May-19 1,895,756
Jun-19 1,895,756
Jul-19 1,895,756
Aug-19 1,895,756
Sep-19 1,895,756
Oct-19 1,895,756
Nov-19 1,895,756
Dec-19 1,895,756

Pollo
Mes Demanda (Kg)

Jan-19 2,015,183
Feb-19 2,059,093
Mar-19 2,103,003
Apr-19 3,815,495
May-19 2,190,823
Jun-19 2,234,733
Jul-19 2,278,643
Aug-19 2,322,553
Sep-19 2,366,463
Oct-19 2,410,374
Nov-19 2,454,284
Dec-19 2,498,194
 DATOS INICIALES PARA
CÁLCULO DE PRODUCCIÓN Carne Asar Sobrebarriga Cadera
AGREGADA
Presentación Bandeja 1Kg Bandeja 1Kg Bandeja 1Kg
Producción Hora 35 20 25
Producción jornada 8 horas 280 160 200
Trabajadores actuales 3 3 3
Costo Almacenar Semana/kilo $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000
Costo de contratar $ 350,000
Costo de despedir -$ 440,000
Salario $ 925,148
Inventario inicial $ -
Stock 10%

PRODUCCIÓN AGREGADA POR FAMILIA - METODO NIVELAC

No.
Contrataciones Costo Contrataciones
Producto Periodo
y/o (No. y/o Despidos
Despidos)
Enero 280 98,000,000
Febrero 11 3,850,000
Marzo - -
Abril - -
Mayo - -
Junio - -
CARNE DE RES Julio - -
Agosto - -
Septiembre - -
Octubre - -
Noviembre - -
Diciembre - -
Sub-total Carne Res 291 101,850,000
Enero 224 78,400,000
Febrero 9 3,150,000
Marzo - -
Abril - -
Mayo - -
Junio - -
CARNE DE CERDO Julio - -
Agosto - -
Septiembre - -
Octubre - -
Noviembre - -
Diciembre - -

Sub-total Carne Cerdo 233 81,550,000

 Enero 236 82,600,000
Febrero 83 29,050,000
Marzo - -
Abril - -
Mayo - -
Junio - -
POLLO Julio - -
Agosto - -
Septiembre - -
Octubre - -
Noviembre - -
Diciembre - -
Sub-total Pollo 319 111,650,000
 Milanesa cerdo Costillas cerdo Chorizos Alas

Bandeja 1Kg Bandeja 1Kg Unidad Paquete 1Kg

30 15 40 15
240 120 320 120
2 2 2 2
$ 8,000 $ 8,000 $ 8,000 $ 7,000

OR FAMILIA - METODO NIVELACIÓN

Costo MANTENER
Costo MANO OBRA COSTO TOTAL
INVENTARIOS (kg/Sem)

222,806,477 91,175,411 411,981,888

222,035,520 104,750,822 330,636,342
231,287,000 825,926,233 1,057,213,233
222,035,520 839,501,644 1,061,537,164
222,035,520 853,077,055 1,075,112,575
212,784,040 159,052,467 371,836,507
240,538,480 1,587,827,878 1,828,366,358
231,287,000 2,309,003,289 2,540,290,289
240,538,480 3,737,778,700 3,978,317,180
240,538,480 5,166,554,111 5,407,092,591
212,784,040 4,472,529,522 4,685,313,562
231,287,000 5,193,704,933 5,424,991,933
2,729,957,557 25,340,882,065 28,172,689,621
177,320,033 44,369,206 300,089,239
176,888,298 60,898,412 240,936,709
184,258,643 457,267,618 641,526,261
176,888,298 473,796,824 650,685,121
176,888,298 490,326,030 667,214,327
169,517,952 127,015,235 296,533,187
191,628,989 903,224,441 1,094,853,430
184,258,643 1,299,593,647 1,483,852,291
191,628,989 2,075,802,853 2,267,431,842
191,628,989 2,852,012,059 3,043,641,048
169,517,952 2,488,701,265 2,658,219,217
184,258,643 2,885,070,471 3,069,329,114

2,174,683,727 14,158,078,061 16,414,311,788

 181,945,773 20,231,277 284,777,287
221,295,402 1,996,360,330 2,246,705,815
229,745,087 4,209,747,159 4,439,492,246
267,182,742 58,907,249 326,089,992
224,995,994 1,582,569,630 1,807,565,624
219,167,561 2,571,529,787 2,790,697,348
241,340,275 4,554,587,720 4,795,927,995
235,141,783 5,992,863,428 6,228,005,212
243,745,660 7,672,596,913 7,916,342,573
244,547,455 9,189,748,173 9,434,295,628
224,841,802 9,411,157,210 9,635,999,012
240,538,480 10,258,744,022 10,499,282,502
2,774,488,014 57,519,042,899 60,405,181,232
Gran total 104,992,182,642
 Pechuga

Bandeja 1Kg
30
240
2
$ 7,000
 DATOS INICIALES PARA
CÁLCULO DE PRODUCCIÓN Carne Asar Sobrebarriga Cadera
AGREGADA
Presentación Bandeja 1Kg Bandeja 1Kg Bandeja 1Kg
Producción Hora 35 20 25
Producción jornada 8 horas 280 160 200
Trabajadores actuales 3 3 3
Costo Almacenar Semana/kilo $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000
Costo de contratar $ 350,000
Costo de despedir -$ 440,000
Salario $ 925,148
Inventario inicial $ -
Stock 10%

PRODUCCIÓN AGREGADA POR FAMILIA - METODO PERSECU

No.
Contrataciones Costo Contrataciones
Producto Periodo
y/o (No. y/o Despidos
Despidos)
Enero 280 98,000,000
Febrero 11 3,850,000
Marzo (12) 5,280,000
Abril 11 3,850,000
Mayo - -
Junio 14 4,900,000
CARNE DE RES Julio (36) 15,840,000
Agosto 10 3,500,000
Septiembre (11) 4,840,000
Octubre - 790,000
Noviembre 37 12,950,000
Diciembre (26) 11,440,000
Sub-total Carne Res 278 165,240,000
Enero 224 78,400,000
Febrero 9 3,150,000
Marzo (9) 3,960,000
Abril 8 2,800,000
Mayo - 790,000
Junio 11 3,850,000
CARNE DE CERDO Julio (28) 12,320,000
Agosto 7 2,450,000
Septiembre (7) 3,080,000
Octubre - 790,000
Noviembre 26 9,100,000
Diciembre (17) 7,480,000
Sub-total Carne Cerdo 224 128,170,000
Enero 236 82,600,000
Febrero 14 4,900,000
Marzo (5) 2,200,000
Abril 220 77,000,000
Mayo (199) 87,560,000
POLLO
 Junio 17 5,950,000
POLLO Julio (27) 11,880,000
Agosto 14 4,900,000
Septiembre (4) 1,760,000
Octubre 4 1,400,000
Noviembre 41 14,350,000
Diciembre (18) 7,920,000
Sub-total Pollo 293 302,420,000
 Milanesa cerdo Costillas cerdo Chorizos Alas Pechuga

Bandeja 1Kg Bandeja 1Kg Unidad Paquete 1Kg Bandeja 1Kg

30 15 40 15 30
240 120 320 120 240
2 2 2 2 2
$ 8,000 $ 8,000 $ 8,000 $ 7,000 $ 7,000

FAMILIA - METODO PERSECUCIÓN

Costo MANTENER
Costo MANO OBRA INVENTARIOS COSTO TOTAL
(kg/Sem)

222,806,477 91,175,411 411,981,888

222,035,520 104,750,822 330,636,342
222,035,520 125,926,233 353,241,753
221,295,402 101,101,644 326,247,046
221,295,402 76,277,055 297,572,457
222,004,682 99,852,467 326,757,148
222,097,197 135,027,878 372,965,074
221,264,563 106,203,289 330,967,852
221,295,402 68,578,700 294,714,101
221,295,402 62,154,111 284,239,512
222,004,682 85,729,522 320,684,204
221,264,563 56,904,933 289,609,496
2,660,694,810 1,113,682,065 3,939,616,874
177,320,033 44,369,206 300,089,239
176,888,298 60,898,412 240,936,709
177,320,033 105,267,618 286,547,651
176,148,179 60,356,824 239,305,003
176,148,179 53,846,030 230,784,209
176,610,753 58,535,235 238,995,989
177,196,680 102,584,441 292,101,122
175,778,120 34,953,647 213,181,767
177,196,680 79,002,853 259,279,533
177,196,680 98,092,059 276,078,739
175,192,193 21,821,265 206,113,458
177,320,033 66,190,471 250,990,504
2,120,315,863 785,918,061 3,034,403,924
181,945,773 20,231,277 284,777,287
185,029,600 20,680,330 210,609,944
188,884,383 8,067,159 199,151,538
344,155,056 50,507,249 471,662,525
196,871,494 42,009,630 326,440,926
 200,726,278 26,329,787 233,006,082
205,259,503 43,787,720 260,927,196
208,158,300 12,063,428 225,121,742
213,277,452 31,956,913 246,994,361
216,484,632 20,308,173 238,192,809
220,586,121 9,877,210 244,813,372
225,890,303 59,464,022 293,274,307
2,587,268,897 345,282,899 3,234,972,089
Gran total 10,208,992,888
Datos iniciales del ejercicio
Hora inicio: 6/1/2020 7:00
Pj Rj
Cantidad de Disponibiliodad
Pedido 30 Prioridad Entrega (horas)
bandejas (horas)

Pedido 1 814 27 1 4 109

Pedido 2 945 32 4 25 86

Pedido 3 642 21 5 51 125

Pedido 4 588 20 2 48 111

Pedido 5 888 30 1 2 59

Pedido 6 722 24 1 51 73

Pedido 7 645 22 3 72 107

Pedido 8 961 32 1 24 127

Pedido 9 753 25 1 55 97

Pedido 10 979 33 5 24 128

SPT
Tiempo
Pedido Cantidad Cj Disponibilidad Rj Fecha entrega
procesamiento
Pedido 4 588 20 21 48 111
Pedido 3 642 21 43 51 125
Pedido 7 645 22 65 72 107
Pedido 6 722 24 89 51 73
Pedido 9 753 25 115 55 97
Pedido 1 814 27 142 4 109
Pedido 5 888 30 172 2 59
Pedido 2 945 32 204 25 86
Pedido 8 961 32 237 24 127
Pedido 10 979 33 270 24 128

WSPT
 Tiempo
Pedido Cantidad Prioridad Prioridad /Tiempo Cj
procesamiento
Pedido 3 642 21 5 0.2336448598131 22
Pedido 10 979 33 5 0.1532175689479 55
Pedido 7 645 22 3 0.1395348837209 77
Pedido 2 945 32 4 0.1269841269841 109
Pedido 4 588 20 2 0.1020408163265 129
Pedido 6 722 24 1 0.0415512465374 154
Pedido 9 753 25 1 0.0398406374502 179
Pedido 1 814 27 1 0.036855036855 207
Pedido 5 888 30 1 0.0337837837838 237
Pedido 8 961 32 1 0.0312174817898 270

EDD

Pedido Cantidad de Tiempo Prioridad Prioridad /Tiempo Fecha de

bandejas procesamiento Disponibilidad
Pedido 5 888 30 1 0.0337837837838 6/1/2020 9:00
Pedido 6 722 24 1 0.0415512465374 6/3/2020 10:00
Pedido 2 945 32 4 0.1269841269841 6/2/2020 8:00

Pedido 9 753 25 1 0.0398406374502 6/3/2020 14:00

Pedido 7 645 22 3 0.1395348837209 6/4/2020 7:00
Pedido 1 814 27 1 0.036855036855 6/1/2020 11:00
Pedido 4 588 20 2 0.1020408163265 6/3/2020 7:00
Pedido 3 642 21 5 0.2336448598131 6/3/2020 10:00
Pedido 8 961 32 1 0.0312174817898 6/2/2020 7:00
Pedido 10 979 33 5 0.1532175689479 6/2/2020 7:00
WSPT
Fecha de Fecha de Fecha de - Se empacan 3
Prioridad /Tiempo Fecha de Entrega - Al inicio del d
Disponibilidad Disponibilidad Entrega
- La jornada lab
Viernes 8:00
0.03685503685504 Lunes 11:00 a.m. 6/1/2020 11:00 6/5/2020 20:00
p.m.
Jueves 9:00
0.12698412698413 6/2/2020 8:00 6/4/2020 21:00
Martes 8:00 a.m. a.m.
Miércoles 10:00 Sábado 12:00
0.23364485981309 6/3/2020 10:00 6/6/2020 11:59
a.m. m.
Miércoles 7:00 Viernes 10:00
0.10204081632653 6/3/2020 7:00 6/5/2020 22:00
a.m. p.m.
Miércoles 6:00
0.03378378378378 Lunes 9:00 a.m. 6/1/2020 9:00 6/3/2020 18:00
p.m.

0.0415512465374 Miércoles 10:00 6/3/2020 10:00 Jueves 8:00 6/4/2020 8:00

a.m. a.m.
Viernes 6:00
0.13953488372093 Jueves 7:00 a.m. 6/4/2020 7:00 6/5/2020 18:00
p.m.

0.0312174817898 Martes 7:00 a.m. 6/2/2020 7:00 Sábado 2:00 6/6/2020 14:00
p.m.

0.0398406374502 Miércoles 2:00 6/3/2020 14:00 Viernes 8:00 6/5/2020 8:00

p.m. a.m.
Sábado 3:00
0.15321756894791 Martes 7:00 a.m. 6/2/2020 7:00 6/6/2020 15:00
p.m.

Retardo Tardanza Prioridad

Tiempo de flujo promedio
-90.40 0.00 2 100.14
No. Trabajos tardíos
-82.48 0.00 5 7
Tiempo terminación
-42.50 0.00 3 último trabajo 270
Tardanza ponderada total
16.07 16.07 1 1474.3
17.67 17.67 1
33.30 33.30 1
113.40 113.40 1
118.40 118.40 4
109.93 109.93 1
142.07 142.07 5
 Disponibilidad Fecha entrega Retardo
Tardanza
Tiempo de flujo promedio

No. Trabajos tardíos

Tiempo terminación
último trabajo
Tardanza ponderada total

Fecha de Entrega
Tiempo de flujo promedio
6/3/2020 18:00
6/4/2020 8:00 No. Trabajos tardíos
Tiempo terminación
6/4/2020 21:00 último trabajo
Tardanza ponderada total
6/5/2020 8:00
6/5/2020 18:00
6/5/2020 20:00
6/5/2020 22:00
6/6/2020 11:59
6/6/2020 14:00
6/6/2020 15:00
- Se empacan 30 bandejas de milanesa de cerdo por hora
- Al inicio del día hay un alistamiento de la máquina de 0,5 hora
- La jornada laboral es de Lunes a Viernes de 7:00 a.m. a 10:00 p.m.

El gerente de la compañía quiere realizar la secuenciación de los clientes empleando las

reglas de despacho:
- SPT
- WSPT
- EDD
- CR

para luego escoger la que presente mejores resultados, teniendo en cuenta:

- El tiempo de flujo promedio
- El número de trabajos tardíos
- E tiempo de terminación del último trabajo
- La tardanza ponderada total
 Tiempo de proceso de los pedidos en cada máquina (en minutos)

Pedido Etapa 1 Etapa 2 Etapa 3 Etapa 4 Etapa 5

0 Pedido 1 24 22 23 8 18
0 Pedido 2 23 8 24 15 10
0 Pedido 3 13 25 5 30 11
-323 Pedido 4 21 30 25 25 25
#VALUE! Pedido 5 6 15 21 26 20
#VALUE! Pedido 6 30 29 8 17 6
#VALUE! Pedido 7 7 7 27 28 6
#VALUE! Pedido 8 7 7 22 5 11

Tiempo de proceso de los pedidos en cada máquina (en minutos)

Pedido Etapa 1 Etapa 2 Etapa 3 Etapa 4 Etapa 5

0 Pedido 1 24 22 23 8 18
0 Pedido 2 23 8 24 15 10
0 Pedido 3 13 25 5 30 11
Pedido 4 21 30 25 25 25
Pedido 5 6 15 21 26 20
Pedido 6 30 29 8 17 6
Pedido 7 7 7 27 28 6
Pedido 8 7 7 22 5 11

Tiempo de proceso de los pedidos en cada máquina (en minutos)

Pedido Etapa 1 Etapa 2 Etapa 3 Etapa 4 Etapa 5

0 Pedido 1 24 22 23 8 18
0 Pedido 2 23 8 24 15 10
0 Pedido 3 13 25 5 30 11
Pedido 4 21 30 25 25 25
Pedido 5 6 15 21 26 20
Pedido 6 30 29 8 17 6
Pedido 7 7 7 27 28 6
Pedido 8 7 7 22 5 11

Tiempo de proceso de los pedidos en cada máquina (en minutos)

Pedido Etapa 1 Etapa 2 Etapa 3 Etapa 4 Etapa 5

0 Pedido 1 24 22 23 8 18
 0 Pedido 2 23 8 24 15 10
0 Pedido 3 13 25 5 30 11
Pedido 4 21 30 25 25 25
Pedido 5 6 15 21 26 20
Pedido 6 30 29 8 17 6
Pedido 7 7 7 27 28 6
Pedido 8 7 7 22 5 11

Tiempo de proceso de los pedidos en cada máquina (en minutos)

Pedido Etapa 1 Etapa 2 Etapa 3 Etapa 4 Etapa 5

0 Pedido 1 24 22 23 8 18
0 Pedido 2 23 8 24 15 10
0 Pedido 3 13 25 5 30 11
Pedido 4 21 30 25 25 25
Pedido 5 6 15 21 26 20
Pedido 6 30 29 8 17 6
Pedido 7 7 7 27 28 6
Pedido 8 7 7 22 5 11

Tiempo de proceso de los pedidos en cada máquina (en minutos)

Pedido Etapa 1 Etapa 2 Etapa 3 Etapa 4 Etapa 5

0 Pedido 1 24 22 23 8 18
0 Pedido 2 23 8 24 15 10
-704 Pedido 3 13 25 5 30 11
Pedido 4 21 30 25 25 25
Pedido 5 6 15 21 26 20
Pedido 6 30 29 8 17 6
Pedido 7 7 7 27 28 6
Pedido 8 7 7 22 5 11

Información adicional:

- El objetivo es plantear el programa de producción para los 8 pedidos de chorizos, el cual es manufacturado en 7 etapas
diferentes, realizadas una después de la otra.
- El objetivo que se quiere lograr con la programación es el del menor tiempo de proceso.
- A qué hora se tiene listo cada uno de los pedidos si se asume que la empresa inicia labores desde las 7:00 a.m.?
- Presente el diagrama de Gantt asociado a la mejor solución encontrada.
(en minutos) i iteración
>tiempo
Etapa 6 Etapa 7 P1j P2j P1j<P2j Secuencia procesamien Etapa 1
to P2j
22 9 24 9 05y3 4-6-1-2-7-8 Etapa 2
7 8 23 8 0 Etapa 3
24 15 13 15 1 Etapa 4
19 11 21 11 0 Etapa 5
17 21 6 21 1 Etapa 6
7 10 30 10 0 Etapa 7
11 5 7 5 0
23 5 7 5 0

(en minutos) ii iteración

>tiempo
Etapa 6 Etapa 7 P1j P2j P1j<P2j Secuencia procesamien Etapa 1
to P2j
22 9 46 31 0 7,8,5,3 4,1,6,2 Etapa 2
7 8 31 15 0 Etapa 3
24 15 38 39 1 Etapa 4
19 11 51 30 0 Etapa 5
17 21 21 38 1 Etapa 6
7 10 59 17 0 Etapa 7
11 5 14 16 1
23 5 14 28 1

(en minutos) iii iteración

>tiempo
Etapa 6 Etapa 7 P1j P2j P1j<P2j Secuencia procesamien Etapa 1
to P2j
22 9 69 49 0 8,5,3 4,1,2,6,7 Etapa 2
7 8 55 25 0 Etapa 3
24 15 43 50 1 Etapa 4
19 11 76 55 0 Etapa 5
17 21 42 58 1 Etapa 6
7 10 67 23 0 Etapa 7
11 5 41 22 0
23 5 36 39 1

(en minutos) iiii iteración

>tiempo
Etapa 6 Etapa 7 P1j P2j P1j<P2j Secuencia procesamien Etapa 1
to P2j
22 9 77 57 0 8,5,3 4,1,7,6,2 Etapa 2
 7 8 70 40 0 Etapa 3
24 15 73 80 1 Etapa 4
19 11 101 80 0 Etapa 5
17 21 68 84 1 Etapa 6
7 10 84 40 0 Etapa 7
11 5 69 50 0
23 5 41 44 1

(en minutos) v iteración

>tiempo
Etapa 6 Etapa 7 P1j P2j P1j<P2j Secuencia procesamien Etapa 1
to P2j
22 9 95 80 0 8,7,3,5 4,1,2,6 Etapa 2
7 8 80 64 0 Etapa 3
24 15 84 85 1 Etapa 4
19 11 126 105 0 Etapa 5
17 21 88 105 1 Etapa 6
7 10 90 48 0 Etapa 7
11 5 75 77 1
23 5 52 66 1

(en minutos) vi iteración

>tiempo
Etapa 6 Etapa 7 P1j P2j P1j<P2j Secuencia procesamien Etapa 1
to P2j
22 9 117 102 05y3 4,1,7,6,8,2 Etapa 2
7 8 87 72 0 Etapa 3
24 15 108 110 1 Etapa 4
19 11 145 135 0 Etapa 5
17 21 105 120 1 Etapa 6
7 10 97 77 0 Etapa 7
11 5 86 84 0
23 5 75 73 0

l es manufacturado en 7 etapas

.
res desde las 7:00 a.m.?
Minutos
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3
 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 3 3 3 3 3
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3

3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3

5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 3

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

6 6 6 6 6 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 7 7
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147

7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 6 6 6 6

6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 2 2 2 2 2 2
148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172

8 8
1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2
6 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

2 2 2
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 2 2

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6

2 2
173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197

2 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

2 2

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

6 6 6 6 6
198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222

7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247

8
248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272
273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297
298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322
323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347
348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372
373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397
398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422
423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447
448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457
458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465
466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473
474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481
482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489
490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497
498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505
506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513
514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521
522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529
530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537
538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545
546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553
554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561
562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569
570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577
578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585
586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593
594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601
602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609
610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617
618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625
626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633
634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641
642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649
650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657
658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665
666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673
674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681
682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689
690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697
698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705
706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713
714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721
722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729
730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737
738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745
746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753
754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761
762 763 764 765 766 767 768 769
770 771 772 773 774 775 776 777
778 779 780 781 782 783 784 785
786 787 788 789 790 791 792 793
794 795 796 797 798 799 800 801
802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809
810 811 812 813 814 815 816 817
818 819 820 821 822 823 824 825
826 827 828 829 830 831 832 833
834 835 836 837 838 839 840 841
842 843 844 845 846 847 848 849
850 851 852 853 854 855 856 857
858 859 860 861 862 863 864 865
866 867 868 869 870 871 872 873
874 875 876 877 878 879 880 881
882 883 884 885 886 887 888 889
890 891 892 893 894 895 896 897
898 899 900 901 902 903 904 905
906 907 908 909 910 911 912 913
914 915 916 917 918 919 920 921
922 923 924 925 926 927 928 929
930 931 932 933 934 935 936 937
938 939 940 941 942 943 944 945
946 947 948 949 950 951 952 953
954 955 956 957 958 959 960 961
962 963 964 965 966 967 968 969
970 971 972 973 974 975 976 977
978 979 980 981 982 983 984 985
986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993
994 995 996 997 998 999 1000 1001
1002 1003 1004 1005 1006 1007 1008 1009
 Res Cerdo Pollo

Proporción Proporción
Mes Mes Mes
por demanda por demanda

Jan-15 0.0577 Jan-15 0.0522 Jan-15

Feb-15 0.1205 Feb-15 0.0381 Feb-15
Mar-15 0.0374 Mar-15 0.0930 Mar-15
Apr-15 0.0917 Apr-15 0.1227 Apr-15
May-15 0.0475 May-15 0.0498 May-15
Jun-15 0.0255 Jun-15 0.0631 Jun-15
Jul-15 0.1426 Jul-15 0.0631 Jul-15
Aug-15 0.0679 Aug-15 0.1204 Aug-15
Sep-15 0.0594 Sep-15 0.1160 Sep-15
Oct-15 0.1409 Oct-15 0.0843 Oct-15
Nov-15 0.0781 Nov-15 0.1181 Nov-15
Dec-15 0.1307 Dec-15 0.0792 Dec-15
Jan-16 0.1257 Jan-16 0.0256 Jan-16
Feb-16 0.1115 Feb-16 0.0490 Feb-16
Mar-16 0.0248 Mar-16 0.1063 Mar-16
Apr-16 0.0637 Apr-16 0.1198 Apr-16
May-16 0.1735 May-16 0.0432 May-16
Jun-16 0.0354 Jun-16 0.1340 Jun-16
Jul-16 0.1611 Jul-16 0.1149 Jul-16
Aug-16 0.0354 Aug-16 0.0726 Aug-16
Sep-16 0.0637 Sep-16 0.0704 Sep-16
Oct-16 0.0973 Oct-16 0.0726 Oct-16
Nov-16 0.0513 Nov-16 0.1322 Nov-16
Dec-16 0.0566 Dec-16 0.0592 Dec-16
Jan-17 0.0447 Jan-17 0.1496 Jan-17
Feb-17 0.0592 Feb-17 0.0298 Feb-17
Mar-17 0.0216 Mar-17 0.0790 Mar-17
Apr-17 0.0981 Apr-17 0.1580 Apr-17
May-17 0.1443 May-17 0.0718 May-17
Jun-17 0.1025 Jun-17 0.0774 Jun-17
Jul-17 0.1342 Jul-17 0.0284 Jul-17
Aug-17 0.1414 Aug-17 0.0478 Aug-17
Sep-17 0.0505 Sep-17 0.0480 Sep-17
Oct-17 0.0924 Oct-17 0.1441 Oct-17
Nov-17 0.0433 Nov-17 0.1236 Nov-17
Dec-17 0.0678 Dec-17 0.0424 Dec-17
Jan-18 0.0305 Jan-18 0.0241 Jan-18
Feb-18 0.0962 Feb-18 0.1408 Feb-18
Mar-18 0.0560 Mar-18 0.0566 Mar-18
Apr-18 0.1145 Apr-18 0.1548 Apr-18
May-18 0.1194 May-18 0.0504 May-18
Jun-18 0.1108 Jun-18 0.1527 Jun-18
Jul-18 0.0195 Jul-18 0.0805 Jul-18
Aug-18 0.0999 Aug-18 0.0791 Aug-18
Sep-18 0.1121 Sep-18 0.1371 Sep-18
Oct-18 0.1206 Oct-18 0.0791 Oct-18
Nov-18 0.0341 Nov-18 0.0704 Nov-18
Dec-18 0.0865 Dec-18 0.1149 Dec-18
Proporción
por
demanda
0.0347
0.0463
0.0602
0.0694
0.0810
0.0880
0.0926
0.0995
0.0972
0.1088
0.1157
0.1065
0.0713
0.0772
0.0846
0.0861
0.0817
0.0861
0.0891
0.0757
0.0802
0.0854
0.0891
0.0935
0.0729
0.0776
0.0752
0.0799
0.0823
0.0834
0.0858
0.0846
0.0893
0.0905
0.0905
0.0881
0.0705
0.0723
0.0796
0.0814
0.0832
0.0814
0.0850
0.0850
0.0868
0.0895
0.0904
0.0949