Table I.

Year PCE(Y) GDP(X) X-Xbar Y-Ybar (X-Xbar)(Y-Ybar)

1960 1,597.4 2,501.8 -3,521.1 -2,450.6 8628807.66

1961 1,630.3 2,560.0 -3,462.9 -2,417.7 8372253.33
1962 1,711.1 2,715.2 -3,307.7 -2,336.9 7729764.13
1963 1,781.6 2,834.0 -3,188.9 -2,266.4 7227322.96
1964 1,888.4 2,998.6 -3,024.3 -2,159.6 6531278.28
1965 2,007.7 3,191.1 -2,831.8 -2,040.3 5777721.54
1966 2,121.8 3,399.1 -2,623.8 -1,926.2 5053963.56
1967 2,185.0 3,484.6 -2,538.3 -1,863.0 4728852.9
1968 2,310.5 3,652.7 -2,370.2 -1,737.5 4118222.5
1969 2,396.4 3,765.4 -2,257.5 -1,651.6 3728487
1970 2,451.9 3,771.9 -2,251.0 -1,596.1 3592821.1
1971 2,545.5 3,898.6 -2,124.3 -1,502.5 3191760.75
1972 2,701.3 4,105.0 -1,917.9 -1,346.7 2582835.93
1973 2,833.8 4,341.5 -1,681.4 -1,214.2 2041555.88
1974 2,812.3 4,319.6 -1,703.3 -1,235.7 2104767.81
1975 2,876.9 4,311.2 -1,711.7 -1,171.1 2004571.87
1976 3,035.5 4,540.9 -1,482.0 -1,012.5 1500525
1977 3,164.1 4,750.5 -1,272.4 -883.9 1124674.36
1978 3,303.1 5,015.0 -1,007.9 -744.9 750784.71
1979 3,383.4 5,173.4 -849.5 -664.6 564577.7
1980 3,374.1 5,161.7 -861.2 -673.9 580362.68
1981 3,422.2 5,291.7 -731.2 -625.8 457584.96
1982 3,470.3 5,189.3 -833.6 -577.7 481570.72
1983 3,668.6 5,423.8 -599.1 -379.4 227298.54
1984 3,863.3 5,813.6 -209.3 -184.7 38657.71
1985 4,064.0 6,053.7 30.8 16.0 492.8
1986 4,228.9 6,263.6 240.7 180.9 43542.63
1987 4,369.8 6,475.1 452.2 321.8 145517.96
1988 4,546.9 6,742.7 719.8 498.9 359108.22
1989 4,675.0 6,981.4 958.5 627.0 600979.5
1990 4,770.3 7,112.5 1,089.6 722.3 787018.08
1991 4,778.4 7,100.5 1,077.6 730.4 787079.04
1992 4,934.8 7,336.6 1,313.7 886.8 1164989.16
1993 5,099.8 7,532.7 1,509.8 1,051.8 1588007.64
1994 5,290.7 7,835.5 1,812.6 1,242.7 2252518.02
1995 5,433.5 8,031.7 2,008.8 1,385.5 2783192.4
1996 5,619.4 8,328.9 2,306.0 1,571.4 3623648.4
1997 5,831.8 8,703.5 2,680.6 1,783.8 4781654.28
1998 6,125.8 9,066.9 3,044.0 2,077.8 6324823.2
1999 6,438.6 9,470.3 3,447.4 2,390.6 8241354.44
2000 6,739.4 9,817.0 3,794.1 2,691.4 10211440.74
2001 6,910.4 9,890.7 3,867.8 2,862.4 11071190.72
2002 7,099.3 10,048.8 4,025.9 3,051.3 12284228.67
2003 7,295.3 10,301.0 4,278.1 3,247.3 13892274.13
2004 7,577.1 10,703.5 4,680.6 3,529.1 16518305.46
2005 7,841.2 11,048.6 5,025.7 3,793.2 19063485.24
 186,206.9 277,055.4 199665874.31

Mean 4,048.0 6,022.9

Median 3,569.5 5,357.8
Variance 3208084.793 6146866.683
Standard deviation 1791.1127248 2479.2875354

Beta2hat 0.7218343355
Beta1hat -299.5360195

Sample var 5412.0908718

Standard error 73.566914247
Variance of Beta2hat 1.95659E-05
Standard error of Beta2hat0.0044233305
Variance of Beta1hat 827.42203837
Standard error of Beta1hat28.764944609
r^2 0.9983504731
r 0.9991748966
(X-Xbar)^2 Yhat Uhat Uhat^2 X^2

12,398,145.21 1506.349121 91.1 8,290.2625 6,259,003.24

11,991,676.41 1548.359879 81.9 6,714.1834 6,553,600.00
10,940,879.29 1660.388568 50.7 2,571.6493 7,372,311.04
10,169,083.21 1746.142487 35.5 1,257.2352 8,031,556.00
9,146,390.49 1864.956419 23.4 549.6015 8,991,601.96
8,019,091.24 2003.909529 3.8 14.3677 10,183,119.21
6,884,326.44 2154.05107 -32.3 1,040.1315 11,553,880.81
6,442,966.89 2215.767906 -30.8 946.6640 12,142,437.16
5,617,848.04 2337.108258 -26.6 707.9994 13,342,217.29
5,096,306.25 2418.458988 -22.1 486.5989 14,178,237.16
5,067,001.00 2423.150911 28.7 826.5101 14,227,229.61
4,512,650.49 2514.607321 30.9 954.3576 15,199,081.96
3,678,340.41 2663.593928 37.7 1,421.7479 16,851,025.00
2,827,105.96 2834.307748 -0.5 0.2578 18,848,622.25
2,901,230.89 2818.499576 -6.2 38.4347 18,658,944.16
2,929,916.89 2812.436168 64.5 4,155.5857 18,586,445.44
2,196,324.00 2978.241515 57.3 3,278.5341 20,619,772.81
1,619,001.76 3129.537991 34.6 1,194.5324 22,567,250.25
1,015,862.41 3320.463173 -17.4 301.4798 25,150,225.00
721,650.25 3434.801732 -51.4 2,642.1380 26,764,067.56
741,665.44 3426.35627 -52.3 2,730.7178 26,643,146.89
534,653.44 3520.194734 -98.0 9,602.9679 28,002,088.89
694,888.96 3446.278898 24.0 577.0133 26,928,834.49
358,920.81 3615.54905 53.1 2,814.4033 29,417,606.44
43,806.49 3896.920074 -33.6 1,130.3093 33,797,944.96
948.64 4070.232498 -6.2 38.8440 36,647,283.69
57,936.49 4221.745525 7.2 51.1865 39,232,684.96
204,484.84 4374.413487 -4.6 21.2843 41,926,920.01
518,112.04 4567.576355 -20.7 427.5116 45,464,003.29
918,722.25 4739.878211 -64.9 4,209.1822 48,739,945.96
1,187,228.16 4834.510692 -64.2 4,123.0130 50,587,656.25
1,161,221.76 4825.84868 -47.4 2,251.3772 50,417,100.25
1,725,807.69 4996.273767 -61.5 3,779.0240 53,825,699.56
2,279,496.04 5137.82548 -38.0 1,445.9371 56,741,569.29
3,285,518.76 5356.396917 -65.7 4,316.0848 61,395,060.25
4,035,277.44 5498.020813 -64.5 4,162.9353 64,508,204.89
5,317,636.00 5712.549978 -93.1 8,676.9184 69,370,575.21
7,185,616.36 5982.94912 -151.1 22,846.0564 75,750,912.25
9,265,936.00 6245.263717 -119.5 14,271.5798 82,208,675.61
11,884,566.76 6536.451688 -97.9 9,574.9529 89,686,582.09
14,395,194.81 6786.711652 -47.3 2,238.3925 96,373,489.00
14,959,876.84 6839.910843 70.5 4,968.7213 97,825,946.49
16,207,870.81 6954.032851 145.3 21,102.5445 100,978,381.440
18,302,139.61 7136.079471 159.2 25,351.1769 106,110,601.00
21,908,016.36 7426.617791 150.5 22,644.8953 114,564,912.25
25,257,660.49 7675.72282 165.5 27,382.6971 122,071,561.96
276,609,000.82 238,132.00 1,945,298,015.28
ESS TSS X*Y Y^2

6,459,989.18997676 6,005,440.36 3996375.32 2,551,686.76

6,248,200.73213994 5,845,273.29 4173568 2,657,878.09
5,700,688.34854698 5,461,101.61 4645978.72 2,927,863.21 9,000.0
5,298,548.00826084 5,136,568.96 5049054.4 3,174,098.56
8,000.0
4,765,679.27636865 4,663,872.16 5662556.24 3,566,054.56
4,178,305.85514148 4,162,824.09 6406771.47 4,030,859.29 7,000.0
3,587,042.54784827 3,710,246.44 7212210.38 4,502,035.24 6,000.0
3,357,074.44587820 3,470,769.00 7613851 4,774,225.00
5,000.0
2,927,150.55313763 3,018,906.25 8439563.35 5,338,410.25

Y(PCE)
2,655,403.91132514 2,727,782.56 9023404.56 5,742,732.96 4,000.0
2,640,134.56296673 2,547,535.21 9248321.61 6,011,813.61 3,000.0
2,351,293.10794250 2,257,506.25 9923886.3 6,479,570.25
2,000.0
1,916,580.17253168 1,813,600.89 11088836.5 7,297,021.69
1,473,048.88200441 1,474,281.64 12302942.7 8,030,422.44 1,000.0
1,511,671.29192114 1,526,954.49 12148011.08 7,909,031.29 0.0
1,526,617.98328222 1,371,475.21 12402891.28 8,276,553.61 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0
1,144,383.21679300 1,025,156.25 13783901.95 9,214,260.25 X(GDP
843,572.46112246 781,279.21 15031057.05 10,011,528.81
529,309.83432995 554,876.01 16565046.5 10,910,469.61
376,012.11592391 441,693.16 17503681.56 11,447,395.56
386,440.92675370 454,141.21 17416091.97 11,384,550.81
278,578.39896875 391,625.64 18109255.74 11,711,452.84
362,068.28471516 333,737.29 18008427.79 12,042,982.09 U hat
187,013.82451849 143,944.36 19897752.68 13,458,625.96
22,825.14416935 34,114.09 22459680.88 14,925,086.89
494.28394662 256.00 24602236.8 16,516,096.00 200.0
30,187.50730580 32,724.81 26488138.04 17,883,595.21
150.0
106,545.76418807 103,555.24 28294891.98 19,095,152.04
269,959.58838240 248,901.21 30658382.63 20,674,299.61 100.0
478,695.45831776 393,129.00 32638045 21,855,625.00
50.0
618,599.06862923 521,717.29 33928758.75 22,755,762.09
605,048.56893556 533,484.16 33929029.2 22,833,106.56 0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
899,223.13640806 786,414.24 36204653.68 24,352,251.04 -50.0
1,187,719.57640225 1,106,283.24 38415263.46 26,007,960.04
1,711,902.49134579 1,544,303.29 41455279.85 27,991,506.49 -100.0
2,102,560.35878104 1,919,610.25 43640241.95 29,522,922.25 -150.0
2,770,726.62840922 2,469,297.96 46803420.66 31,577,656.36
3,744,028.09635427 3,181,942.44 50757071.3 34,009,891.24 -200.0
4,827,967.84366881 4,317,252.84 55542016.02 37,525,425.64
6,192,391.80512527 5,714,968.36 60975473.58 41,455,569.96
7,500,541.51529086 7,243,633.96 66160689.8 45,419,512.36
7,794,766.15516941 8,193,333.76 68348693.28 47,753,628.16
8,445,026.93360048 9,310,431.69 71339445.84 50,400,060.49
9,536,234.81830840 10,544,957.29 75148885.3 53,221,402.09
11,415,058.17703150 12,454,546.81 81101489.85 57,412,444.41
13,160,372.85947410 14,388,366.24 86634282.32 61,484,417.44
144,125,683.71164200 144,363,815.71 1,321,179,508.32 898,124,894.11
00.0
00.0
00.0
00.0
00.0
00.0
00.0
00.0
00.0
0.0
2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0 12,000.0
X(GDP)

U hat

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Table 1.6

Impact of Advertising Expenditure

IMPRESSION(Y) ADEXP(X) X-Xbar Y-Ybar (X-Xbar)(Y-Ybar) (X-Xbar)^2

32.1 50.1 -0.3 -8.4 2.52 0.1
99.6 74.1 23.7 59.1 1400.67 561.7
11.7 19.3 -31.1 -28.8 895.68 967.2
21.9 22.9 -27.5 -18.6 511.5 756.3
60.8 82.4 32 20.3 649.6 1024.0
78.6 40.1 -10.3 38.1 -392.43 106.1
92.4 185.9 135.5 51.9 7032.45 18360.3
50.7 26.9 -23.5 10.2 -239.7 552.3
21.4 20.4 -30 -19.1 573 900.0
40.1 166.2 115.8 -0.4 -46.32 13409.6
40.8 27 -23.4 0.3 -7.02 547.6
10.4 45.6 -4.8 -30.1 144.48 23.0
88.9 154.9 104.5 48.4 5057.8 10920.3
12 5 -45.4 -28.5 1293.9 2061.2
29.2 49.7 -0.7 -11.3 7.91 0.5
38 26.9 -23.5 -2.5 58.75 552.3
10 5.7 -44.7 -30.5 1363.35 1998.1
12.3 7.6 -42.8 -28.2 1206.96 1831.8
23.4 9.2 -41.2 -17.1 704.52 1697.4
71.1 32.4 -18 30.6 -550.8 324.0
4.4 6.1 -44.3 -36.1 1599.23 1962.5
849.8 1058.4 21266.05 58556.0

Mean 40.5 50.4

Median 32.1 27
Variance 910.9 2927.8
Standard deviation 30.2 54.1

Beta2hat 0.36317463
Beta1hat 22.19599865

Sample var 552.32273849

Standard error 23.501547576
Variance of Beta2hat 0.01
Standard error of Beta2ha 0.1
Variance of Beta1hat 50.260894488
Standard error of Beta1ha7.0894918357
r^2 0.4239516874
r 0.6511151413
Yhat Uhat Uhat^2 X^2 ESS TSS X*Y Y^2
40.39104761 -8.29104761 68.74147049 2510.01 0.011870623 70.56 1608.21 1030.41
49.10723873 50.49276127 2549.518941 5490.81 74.08455855 3492.81 7380.36 9920.16
29.20526901 -17.505269 306.4344431 372.49 127.5709482 829.44 225.81 136.89
30.51269768 -8.61269768 74.17856126 524.41 99.74620771 345.96 501.51 479.61
52.12158816 8.678411841 75.31483209 6789.76 135.0613113 412.09 5009.92 3696.64
36.75930131 41.84069869 1750.644067 1608.01 13.99282668 1451.61 3151.86 6177.96
89.71016236 2.689837641 7.235226534 34558.81 2421.640079 2693.61 17177.16 8537.76
31.9653962 18.7346038 350.9853797 723.61 72.83946209 104.04 1363.83 2570.49
29.6047611 -8.2047611 67.31810473 416.16 118.7062307 364.81 436.56 457.96
82.55562215 -42.4556221 1802.479852 27622.44 1768.675354 0.16 6664.62 1608.01
32.00171366 8.798286341 77.40984254 729 72.22087073 0.09 1101.6 1664.64
38.75676178 -28.3567618 804.1059384 2079.36 3.038879505 906.01 474.24 108.16
78.45174883 10.44825117 109.1659525 23994.01 1440.335239 2342.56 13770.61 7903.21
24.0118718 -12.0118718 144.2850641 25 271.8583715 812.25 60 144
40.24577776 -11.0457778 122.0092063 2470.09 0.064628948 127.69 1451.24 852.64
31.9653962 6.034603804 36.41644307 723.61 72.83946209 6.25 1022.2 1444
24.26609404 -14.266094 203.5214392 32.49 263.5397027 930.25 57 100
24.95612584 -12.6561258 160.1775212 57.76 241.612024 795.24 93.48 151.29
25.53720525 -2.13720525 4.567646263 84.64 223.8852269 292.41 215.28 547.56
33.96285666 37.13714334 1379.167415 1049.76 42.73424304 936.36 2303.64 5055.21
24.41136389 -20.0113639 400.4546849 37.21 258.8442118 1303.21 26.84 19.36
10494.13203 111899.44 7723.30171 18217.41 64095.97 52605.96
 Uhat
60

40

20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

-20

-40

-60

120

100

80
Y(Impression)

60

40

20

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
X(ADEXP)