1. Remove 2.

Apply
Seasonal effect Last-value
Week Day True Value
1 2 96,800 96,775
1 3 93,100 93,506 96,775
1 4 93,000 92,314 93,506
1 5 92,000 91,858 92,314
1 6 92,900 93,357 91,858
2 2 91,000 90,977 93,357
2 3 92,000 92,401 90,977
2 4 90,900 90,229 92,401
2 5 86,800 86,666 90,229
2 6 87,000 87,428 86,666
3 2 85,000 84,978 87,428
3 3 83,000 83,362 84,978
3 4 85,400 84,770 83,362
3 5 89,000 88,863 84,770
3 6 87,000 87,428 88,863
4 2 88,500 88,477 87,428
4 3 88,300 88,685 88,477
4 4 92,600 91,916 88,685
4 5 92,500 92,357 91,916
4 6 91,500 91,950 92,357
5 2 91,400 91,376 91,950
5 3 92,600 93,004 91,376
5 4 92,400 91,718 93,004
5 5 93,000 92,856 91,718
5 6 91,000 91,448 92,856
6 2 90,700 90,677 91,448
6 3 91,900 92,301 90,677
6 4 93,000 92,314 92,301
6 5 90,800 90,660 92,314
6 6 91,200 91,649 90,660
91,649
 3. Add back
seasonal effects Forcasting
Error Mean Absolute Deviation
MAD 1,523
96,355 3,255
94,202 1,202
92,456 456 Mean Square Error
91,408 1,492 MSE 3,331,719
93,381 2,381
90,581 1,419
93,089 2,189 Seasonal factor
90,369 3,569 Mon 1.000
86,242 758 Tue 0.996
87,451 2,451 Wed 1.007
84,609 1,609 Thu 1.002
83,982 1,418 Fri 0.995
84,901 4,099
88,427 1,427
87,451 1,049
88,093 207
89,345 3,255
92,059 441
91,905 405
91,974 574
90,979 1,621
93,696 1,296
91,860 1,140
92,402 1,402
91,471 771
90,283 1,617
92,987 13
92,456 1,656
90,216 984
Tính giá trị của seasonal factor
Gỡ bỏ Seasonal effect
Áp dụng PP dự báo
Đưa nhân tố mùa vào lại
Tính chênh lệch MAD, MSE