EJERCICIO

HALLAR EL PRONOSTICO DE VENTAS UTILIZANDO LOS METODOS ESTUDIADOS

Pronostico
Semana N° Tiendas Compras (Unids)
1 15 1,063 225.00 15,945.00
2 16 1,467 256.00 23,472.00 38.01
3 17 1,441 289.00 24,497.00 - 1.77
4 18 1,205 324.00 21,690.00 - 16.38
5 19 1,285 361.00 24,415.00 6.64
6 20 1,248 400.00 24,960.00 - 2.88
7 21 1,329 441.00 27,909.00 6.49
8 22 1,387 484.00 30,514.00 4.36
9 23 1,021 529.00 23,483.00 - 26.39
10 24 1,122 576.00 26,928.00 9.89
11 25 1,083 625.00 27,075.00 - 3.48
12 26 1,303 676.00 33,878.00 20.31
13 27 1,237 729.00 33,399.00 - 5.07
14 28 1,421 784.00 39,788.00 14.87
15 29 1,361 841.00 39,469.00 - 4.22
16 30 1,242 900.00 37,260.00 - 8.74
17 31 1,187 961.00 36,797.00 - 4.43
18 32 1,479 1,024.00 47,328.00 24.60
19 33 1,061 1,089.00 35,013.00 - 28.26
20 34 1,128 1,156.00 38,352.00 6.31
21 35 1,298 1,225.00 45,430.00 15.07
22 36 1,197 1,296.00 43,092.00 - 7.78
23 37 1,035 1,369.00 38,295.00 - 13.53
24 38 1,142 1,444.00 43,396.00 10.34
25 39 1,245 1,521.00 48,555.00 9.02
26 40 1,009 1,600.00 40,360.00 - 18.96
27 41 1,388 1,681.00 56,908.00 37.56
28 42 1,384 1,764.00 58,128.00 - 0.29
29 43 1,044 1,849.00 44,892.00 - 24.57
30 44 1,210 1,936.00 53,240.00 15.90
Sumatorias 885 37022 28355 1084468 53
Sumatoria/ 20.11 841.41 644.43 24,647.00 1.20

a= 1.66 1.66
b= 38.19 Y=1.66+38.19
Proyeccion de demanda para las semanas
31 1,185.55
32 1,223.74
33 1,261.93
34 1,300.12
35 1,338.31

2) metodo tasa de crecimiento

TASA CRECIENTE
 Semana N° Tiendas Compras (Unids) tasa de creci
1 15 1,063
2 16 1,467 0.38
3 17 1,441 -0.02
4 18 1,205 -0.16
5 19 1,285 0.07
6 20 1,248 -0.03
7 21 1,329 0.06
8 22 1,387 0.04
9 23 1,021 -0.26
10 24 1,122 0.10
11 25 1,083 -0.03
12 26 1,303 0.20
13 27 1,237 -0.05
14 28 1,421 0.15
15 29 1,361 -0.04
16 30 1,242 -0.09
17 31 1,187 -0.04
18 32 1,479 0.25
19 33 1,061 -0.28
20 34 1,128 0.06
21 35 1,298 0.15
22 36 1,197 -0.08
23 37 1,035 -0.14
24 38 1,142 0.10
25 39 1,245 0.09
26 40 1,009 -0.19
27 41 1,388 0.38
28 42 1,384 -0.00
29 43 1,044 -0.25
30 44 1,210 0.16
31 1,210 0.003
32 1,670 0.004
33 2,264 0.018
34 2,566 0.034
35 3,102 0.042
36 3,642 0.055

TASA CRECIENTE GEOMETRICO

Semana N° Tiendas Compras (Unids)
1 15 1,063
2 16 1,467
3 17 1,441
4 18 1,205
 5 19 1,285
6 20 1,248
7 21 1,329
8 22 1,387
9 23 1,021
10 24 1,122
11 25 1,083
12 26 1,303
13 27 1,237
14 28 1,421
15 29 1,361
16 30 1,242
17 31 1,187
18 32 1,479
19 33 1,061
20 34 1,128
21 35 1,298
22 36 1,197
23 37 1,035
24 38 1,142
25 39 1,245
26 40 1,009
27 41 1,388
28 42 1,384
29 43 1,044
30 44 1,210
31 1,215 0.004
32 1,220 0.004
33 1,226 0.004
34 1,231 0.004
35 1,236 0.004
36 1,242 0.004

TASA CRECIENTE GEOMETRICO

1ER PASO
Semana N° Tiendas Compras (Unids)
1 15 1,063
2 16 1,467
3 17 1,441
4 18 1,205
5 19 1,285
6 20 1,248
7 21 1,329
8 22 1,387
9 23 1,021
 10 24 1,122
11 25 1,083
12 26 1,303
13 27 1,237 Resumen
14 28 1,421
15 29 1,361 Estadísticas de la regresión
16 30 1,242 Coeficiente d 0.21099184
17 31 1,187 Coeficiente d 0.04451756
18 32 1,479 R^2 ajustado 0.01039318
19 33 1,061 Error típico 141.851717
20 34 1,128 Observacione 30
21 35 1,298
22 36 1,197 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
23 37 1,035 Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
24 38 1,142 Regresión 1 26250.3942 26250.3942
25 39 1,245 Residuos 28 563413.472 20121.9097
26 40 1,009 Total 29 589663.867
27 41 1,388
28 42 1,384 Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t
29 43 1,044 Intercepción 1287.03908 53.1196111 24.2290757
30 44 1,210 Semana -3.41757508 2.99215955 -1.14217675

PRONOSTICO
31 1,393
32 1,396
33 1,400
34 1,403
35 1,407
36 1,410

2DO PASO
Pendiente a= 3.417575083426
Intercepto b= 1287.03908046
CoeficienteR= 0.210991838746
CoeficienteR2= 0.044517556017
 F Valor crítico de F
1.30456774 0.26305406

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
2.50841E-20 1178.22849 1395.84967 1178.22849 1395.84967
0.26305406 -9.54673608 2.71158591 -9.54673608 2.71158591
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