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GM

Nike
Revenue EPS Revenue EPS
Winters
3234.0 1.260 191.9 0.269
Regression 2736.1 1.388 279.4 0.208
(RMSE)

GM Revenue
60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
1-97
2-97
3-97
4-97
1-98
2-98
3-98
4-98
1-99
2-99
3-99
4-99
1-00
2-00
3-00
4-00
1-01
2-01
3-01
4-01
1-02
2-02
3-02

GM_Rev GM_EPS
29200
-1.28
31300
-1.44
28900
-1.88
33600
-4.25
32000
-0.53
35200
-1.18
29400
-1.86
35800
-1.25
35000
0.42
36658
0.92
30138
-0.49
37268
1.28
37495
1.86
40392
2.23
34510
0.4
42553
1.74
43285
2.51
42204
2.39
35316
0.42
43935
1.98
39240
0.94
44780
2.63
39078
1.57
35183
0.92
42241
2.30
45146
2.68
41890
1.35
43303
2.37
40024
2.31
37272
0.54
33525
-1.28
44624
2.69
42435
3.10
45067
2.99
42794
1.35
46262
1.92
46858
2.88
48743
2.99
42690
1.57
46341
-0.64
42615
0.54
46220
1.05
42475
-0.41
45950
0.6
46264
0.58
48265
2.48

A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
1-97
2-97
3-97
4-97
1-98
2-98
3-98
4-98
1-99
2-99
3-99
4-99
1-00
2-00
3-00
4-00
1-01
2-01
3-01
4-01
1-02
2-02
3-02

B
GM_Rev
29200
31300
28900
33600
32000
35200
29400
35800
35000
36658
30138
37268
37495
40392
34510
42553
43285
42204
35316
43935
39240
44780
39078
35183
42241
45146
41890
43303
40024
37272
33525
44624
42435
45067
42794
46262
46858
48743
42690
46341
42615
46220
42475
45950
46264
48265

C
GM_EPS
-1.28
-1.44
-1.88
-4.25
-0.53
-1.18
-1.86
-1.25
0.42
0.92
-0.49
1.28
1.86
2.23
0.4
1.74
2.51
2.39
0.42
1.98
0.94
2.63
1.57
0.92
2.30
2.68
1.35
2.37
2.31
0.54
-1.28
2.69
3.10
2.99
1.35
1.92
2.88
2.99
1.57
-0.64
0.54
1.05
-0.41
0.6
0.58
2.48

F
Trend
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

1Q
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

A
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101

F
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

SS
MS
4 1111067275.3109 277766818.8277
41 306944777.4065
7486457.9855
45 1418012052.7174

F
37.1026

Revenue Model
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.8852
R Square
0.7835
Adjusted R Square
0.7624
Standard Error
2736.1392
Observations
46
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Trend
1Q
2Q
3Q

Coefficients
33286.7628
335.8508
-1289.9144
423.4015
-4582.6038

Standard Error
1101.4629
30.4091
1142.5337
1142.1290
1167.0899

t Stat
30.2205
11.0444
-1.1290
0.3707
-3.9265

P-value
0.0000
0.0000
0.2655
0.7128
0.0003

4
41
45

SS
43.35912281
79.01228806
122.3714109

MS
10.8397807
1.927128977

F
5.624834057

Coefficients
-0.756027668

Standard Error
0.558839453

t Stat
-1.352853068

P-value
0.183516232

EPS Model
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.595251173
R Square
0.354323959
Adjusted R Square
0.291331175
Standard Error
1.388210711
Observations
46
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept

A
102
103
104
105

B
Trend
1Q
2Q
3Q

C
0.059379941
0.692789032
0.854242424
-0.542438241

D
0.015428373
0.579677203
0.57947185
0.592136067

E
3.848749261
1.195128993
1.474174154
-0.916070261

F
0.000407732
0.238904071
0.148072198
0.364986994

G
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

H
2Q
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1

I
3Q
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

J
Rev Forecast
32332.69928
34381.86594
29711.71146
34630.16601
33676.10244
35725.2691
31055.11462
35973.56917
35019.5056
37068.67227
32398.51779
37316.97233
36362.90876
38412.07543
33741.92095
38660.37549
37706.31192
39755.47859
35085.32411
40003.77866
39049.71509
41098.88175
36428.72727
41347.18182
40393.11825
42442.28491
37772.13043
42690.58498
41736.52141
43785.68808
39115.5336
44033.98814
43079.92457
45129.09124
40458.93676
45377.3913
44423.32773
46472.4944
41802.33992
46720.79447
45766.7309
47815.89756
43145.74308
48064.19763
47110.13406
49159.30072
44489.14625
49407.60079
48453.53722
50502.70389

K
EPS Forecast
-0.003858696
0.216974638
-1.120326087
-0.518507905
0.233661067
0.454494401
-0.882806324
-0.280988142
0.47118083
0.692014163
-0.645286561
-0.043468379
0.708700593
0.929533926
-0.407766798
0.194051383
0.946220356
1.167053689
-0.170247036
0.431571146
1.183740119
1.404573452
0.067272727
0.669090909
1.421259881
1.642093215
0.30479249
0.906610672
1.658779644
1.879612978
0.542312253
1.144130435
1.896299407
2.11713274
0.779832016
1.381650198
2.13381917
2.354652503
1.017351779
1.61916996
2.371338933
2.592172266
1.254871542
1.856689723
2.608858696
2.829692029
1.492391304
2.094209486
2.846378458
3.067211792

G
52
0
53
0
54
0
55
1
56
0
57
0
58
0
59
1
60
0
61
0
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 Significance F
74
0.0000
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95 Significance F
96
0.001053106
97
98
99
100
101

I
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

GM Revenue - Linear Trend


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

y = 340.23x + 31862
R = 0.6618

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

GM Revenue - Logarithmic Trend


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

y = 5162.3ln(x) + 24937
R = 0.6601
10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

GM Revenue - Polynomial Trend


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

y = -5.6121x2 + 604x + 29752


R = 0.6872
10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

GM Revenue - Power Trend


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

y = 26532x0.1372
R = 0.6783
10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

GM Revenue - Exponential Trend


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

y = 32044e0.0088x
R = 0.6505

20000

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

GM Revenue - 4-Period Moving Average


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

GM Revenue - 3-Period Moving Average


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

GM Revenue - 2-Period Moving Average


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

A
Alpha

B
0.100

MAE
RMSE
MAPE

4014.376
4690.9738
11.148%

E
GM_Rev
1-91
29200
=AVERAGE(I3:I47)
2-91
31300
=SQRT(AVERAGE(K3:K47))
3-91
28900
=AVERAGE(J3:J47)
4-91
33600
1-92
32000
2-92
35200
3-92
29400
4-92
35800
1-93
35000
2-93
36658
3-93
30138
4-93
37268
1-94
37495
2-94
40392
3-94
34510
4-94
42553
1-95
43285
2-95
42204
3-95
35316
4-95
43935
1-96
39240
2-96
44780
3-96
39078
4-96
35183
1-97
42241
2-97
45146
3-97
41890
4-97
43303
1-98
40024
2-98
37272
3-98
33525
4-98
44624
1-99
42435
2-99
45067
3-99
42794
4-99
46262
1-00
46858
2-00
48743
3-00
42690
4-00
46341
1-01
42615
2-01
46220
3-01
42475
4-01
45950
1-02
46264
2-02
48265
3-02
4-02
1-03
2-03

F
SmLevel
29200.0
29410.0
29359.0
29783.1
30004.8
30524.3
30411.9
30950.7
31355.6
31885.9
31711.1
32266.8
32789.6
33549.8
33645.8
34536.6
35411.4
36090.7
36013.2
36805.4
37048.8
37822.0
37947.6
37671.1
38128.1
38829.9
39135.9
39552.6
39599.7
39367.0
38782.8
39366.9
39673.7
40213.0
40471.1
41050.2
41631.0
42342.2
42377.0
42773.4
42757.5
43103.8
43040.9
43331.8
43625.0
44089.0
39680.1
35712.1
32140.9
28926.8

G
Forecast

H
I
Error abs(error)

29200.0
2100.0
2100.0
29410.0
-510.0
510.0
29359.0
4241.0
4241.0
29783.1
2216.9
2216.9
=$B$1*E7+(1-$B$1)*F6
30004.8
5195.2
5195.2
30524.3
-1124.3
1124.3
=F8
30411.9
5388.1
5388.1
30950.7
4049.3
4049.3
=E11-G11
31355.6
5302.4
5302.4
31885.9
-1747.9
1747.9
31711.1
5556.9
5556.9
32266.8
5228.2
5228.2
32789.6
7602.4
7602.4
33549.8
960.2
960.2
33645.8
8907.2
8907.2
34536.6
8748.4
8748.4
35411.4
6792.6
6792.6
36090.7
-774.7
774.7
36013.2
7921.8
7921.8
36805.4
2434.6
2434.6
37048.8
7731.2
7731.2
37822.0
1256.0
1256.0
37947.6
-2764.6
2764.6
37671.1
4569.9
4569.9
38128.1
7017.9
7017.9
38829.9
3060.1
3060.1
39135.9
4167.1
4167.1
39552.6
471.4
471.4
39599.7
-2327.7
2327.7
39367.0
-5842.0
5842.0
38782.8
5841.2
5841.2
39366.9
3068.1
3068.1
39673.7
5393.3
5393.3
40213.0
2581.0
2581.0
40471.1
5790.9
5790.9
41050.2
5807.8
5807.8
41631.0
7112.0
7112.0
42342.2
347.8
347.8
42377.0
3964.0
3964.0
42773.4
-158.4
158.4
42757.5
3462.5
3462.5
43103.8
-628.8
628.8
43040.9
2909.1
2909.1
43331.8
2932.2
2932.2
43625.0
4640.0
4640.0
44089.0
44089.0
44089.0
44089.0

J
K
L
1 abs(%error)
error^2
2
3
7.2% 4410000.0
4
1.7%
260100.0
5
14.4% 17986081.0
6
7.4% 4914645.6
7
17.3% 26990206.8
8
3.7% 1264075.3
9
17.7% 29031838.1
10
13.1% 16396895.8
=E11-G11
11
16.9% 28115204.6
12
5.5% 3055016.2
=ABS(H13)
13
17.5% 30879421.8
14
16.2% 27334420.4
=ABS(H15/G15)
15
23.2% 57796633.2
16
2.9%
921924.0
=H17^2
17
26.5% 79337354.0
18
25.3% 76535143.8
19
19.2% 46139319.2
20
2.1%
600107.9
21
22.0% 62754919.9
22
6.6% 5927375.8
23
20.9% 59770807.5
24
3.3% 1577642.5
25
7.3% 7642802.2
26
12.1% 20883934.3
27
18.4% 49250989.2
28
7.9% 9364300.1
29
10.6% 17364747.0
30
1.2%
222211.0
31
5.9% 5418404.3
32
14.8% 34128636.2
33
15.1% 34119912.5
34
7.8% 9413254.3
35
13.6% 29087603.4
36
6.4% 6661371.0
37
14.3% 33534139.1
38
14.1% 33730310.5
39
17.1% 50580574.5
40
0.8%
120966.2
41
9.4% 15713468.3
42
0.4%
25084.4
43
8.1% 11988612.6
44
1.5%
395374.6
45
6.8% 8462808.4
46
6.8% 8597688.8
47
10.6% 21529260.5
48
49
50
51

GM Revenue - Simple Smoothing (alpha 0.10)


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

A
Alpha

B
0.350

MAE
RMSE
MAPE

3275.989
3653.2722
8.584%

D
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
1-97
2-97
3-97
4-97
1-98
2-98
3-98
4-98
1-99
2-99
3-99
4-99
1-00
2-00
3-00
4-00
1-01
2-01
3-01
4-01
1-02
2-02
3-02
4-02
1-03

E
GM_Rev
29200
31300
28900
33600
32000
35200
29400
35800
35000
36658
30138
37268
37495
40392
34510
42553
43285
42204
35316
43935
39240
44780
39078
35183
42241
45146
41890
43303
40024
37272
33525
44624
42435
45067
42794
46262
46858
48743
42690
46341
42615
46220
42475
45950
46264
48265

F
SmLevel
29200.0
29935.9
29572.9
30984.1
31340.1
32692.7
31538.9
33032.1
33721.7
34750.6
33134.3
34582.8
35603.3
37281.4
36310.2
38497.9
40175.4
40886.3
38934.3
40686.7
40179.7
41791.8
40840.8
38858.2
40043.6
41831.6
41852.1
42360.5
41541.7
40045.5
37760.6
40165.7
40960.9
42399.8
42537.9
43842.9
44899.5
46246.4
45000.1
45470.0
44469.5
45082.9
44169.1
44793.1
45308.6
46344.6
30104.3
19555.0
12702.4

G
Forecast
29200.0
29935.9
29572.9
30984.1
31340.1
32692.7
31538.9
33032.1
33721.7
34750.6
33134.3
34582.8
35603.3
37281.4
36310.2
38497.9
40175.4
40886.3
38934.3
40686.7
40179.7
41791.8
40840.8
38858.2
40043.6
41831.6
41852.1
42360.5
41541.7
40045.5
37760.6
40165.7
40960.9
42399.8
42537.9
43842.9
44899.5
46246.4
45000.1
45470.0
44469.5
45082.9
44169.1
44793.1
45308.6
46344.6
46344.6
46344.6

H
I
Error abs(error)
2100.0
-1035.9
4027.1
1015.9
3859.9
-3292.7
4261.1
1967.9
2936.3
-4612.6
4133.7
2912.2
4788.7
-2771.4
6242.8
4787.1
2028.6
-5570.3
5000.7
-1446.7
4600.3
-2713.8
-5657.8
3382.8
5102.4
58.4
1450.9
-2336.5
-4269.7
-6520.5
6863.4
2269.3
4106.1
394.2
3724.1
3015.1
3843.5
-3556.4
1340.9
-2855.0
1750.5
-2607.9
1780.9
1470.9
2956.4

2100.0
1035.9
4027.1
1015.9
3859.9
3292.7
4261.1
1967.9
2936.3
4612.6
4133.7
2912.2
4788.7
2771.4
6242.8
4787.1
2028.6
5570.3
5000.7
1446.7
4600.3
2713.8
5657.8
3382.8
5102.4
58.4
1450.9
2336.5
4269.7
6520.5
6863.4
2269.3
4106.1
394.2
3724.1
3015.1
3843.5
3556.4
1340.9
2855.0
1750.5
2607.9
1780.9
1470.9
2956.4

A
51

D
2-03

F
8251.2

G
46344.6

J
1 abs(%error)
2
3
7.2%
4
3.5%
5
13.6%
6
3.3%
7
12.3%
8
10.1%
9
13.5%
10
6.0%
11
8.7%
12
13.3%
13
12.5%
14
8.4%
15
13.5%
16
7.4%
17
17.2%
18
12.4%
19
5.0%
20
13.6%
21
12.8%
22
3.6%
23
11.4%
24
6.5%
25
13.9%
26
8.7%
27
12.7%
28
0.1%
29
3.5%
30
5.5%
31
10.3%
32
16.3%
33
18.2%
34
5.6%
35
10.0%
36
0.9%
37
8.8%
38
6.9%
39
8.6%
40
7.7%
41
3.0%
42
6.3%
43
3.9%
44
5.8%
45
4.0%
46
3.3%
47
6.5%
48
49
50

K
error^2
4410000.0
1073072.4
16217616.5
1032075.0
14898909.3
10841859.2
18157357.9
3872765.0
8621982.5
21276434.3
17087842.8
8480779.8
22931441.8
7680620.3
38972198.5
22916801.9
4115273.5
31027828.3
25006954.5
2092860.7
21162553.6
7364568.2
32010702.5
11443561.4
26034533.1
3410.0
2105204.5
5459280.8
18230672.8
42517137.8
47106727.4
5149797.6
16859989.5
155405.8
13868716.2
9090617.9
14772581.0
12647626.9
1797967.5
8150999.9
3064130.1
6801355.8
3171769.6
2163424.8
8740497.4

GM Revenue - Simple Smoothing (alpha 0.35)


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

A
Smoothing constant(s)
Level (alpha)
Trend (beta)

MAE
RMSE
MAPE

3094.683
3568.391
8.01%

0.266
0.048

D
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
1-97
2-97
3-97
4-97
1-98
2-98
3-98
4-98
1-99
2-99
3-99
4-99
1-00
2-00
3-00
4-00
1-01
2-01
3-01
4-01
1-02
2-02
3-02
4-02
1-03

E
GM_Rev
29200
31300
28900
33600
32000
35200
29400
35800
35000
36658
30138
37268
37495
40392
34510
42553
43285
42204
35316
43935
39240
44780
39078
35183
42241
45146
41890
43303
40024
37272
33525
44624
42435
45067
42794
46262
46858
48743
42690
46341
42615
46220
42475
45950
46264
48265

F
SmLevel
29200.000
29757.957
29549.579
30637.081
31048.143
32212.293
31564.039
32760.991
33465.944
34443.591
33457.270
34585.269
35507.934
36980.394
36542.128
38331.485
39893.500
40796.336
39647.065
41038.182
40849.029
42161.651
41643.770
40196.038
40944.587
42282.549
42436.275
42917.647
42404.804
41266.806
39384.900
40877.550
41439.569
42564.206
42817.884
43925.285
44926.473
46187.005
45536.825
45993.302
45342.934
45788.561
45126.241
45529.525
45914.424
46733.149

G
SmTrend
0.000
26.659
=$B$2*E4+(1-$B$2)*(F3+
15.429
66.652
83.108
134.760
97.348
149.887
176.407
214.690
157.306
203.686
238.038
297.019
261.887
334.869
393.502
417.838
342.962
393.042
365.225
410.491
366.134
279.468
301.881
351.384
341.940
348.602
307.443
238.380
137.073
201.842
219.052
262.320
261.907
302.305
335.697
379.885
330.669
336.680
289.519
296.978
251.143
258.412
264.456
290.939

A
51

D
2-03

H
I
J
K
L
M
1
Forecast
Error abs(error)abs(%error)
error^2
2
3
29200.000
2100.0
2100.0
7.2%
4410000.0
=$B$2*E4+(1-$B$2)*(F3+G3)
4
29784.616
-884.6
884.6
3.0%
782545.7
5
29565.008
4035.0
4035.0
13.6% 16281159.9
=$B$3*(F6-F5)+(1-$B$3)*G5
6
30703.733
1296.3
1296.3
4.2%
1680308.2
7
31131.251
4068.7
4068.7
13.1% 16554716.2
=F7+G7
8
32347.053
-2947.1
2947.1
9.1%
8685120.1
9
31661.387
4138.6
4138.6
13.1% 17128119.6
=E10-H10
10
32910.877
2089.1
2089.1
6.3%
4364433.2
11
33642.352
3015.6
3015.6
9.0%
9094133.3
=ABS(I12)
12
34658.282
-4520.3
4520.3
13.0% 20432945.1
13
33614.577
3653.4
3653.4
10.9% 13347499.7
=ABS(I14/H14)
14
34788.955
2706.0
2706.0
7.8%
7322680.1
15
35745.973
4646.0
4646.0
13.0% 21585567.4
=I16^2
16
37277.413
-2767.4
2767.4
7.4%
7658572.1
17
36804.015
5749.0
5749.0
15.6% 33050827.6
18
38666.354
4618.6
4618.6
11.9% 21331889.3
19
40287.002
1917.0
1917.0
4.8%
3674882.3
20
41214.174
-5898.2
5898.2
14.3% 34788456.7
21
39990.027
3945.0
3945.0
9.9% 15562811.6
22
41431.224
-2191.2
2191.2
5.3%
4801463.9
23
41214.255
3565.7
3565.7
8.7% 12714540.8
24
42572.143
-3494.1
3494.1
8.2% 12209032.5
25
42009.904
-6826.9
6826.9
16.3% 46606624.0
26
40475.506
1765.5
1765.5
4.4%
3116969.3
27
41246.467
3899.5
3899.5
9.5% 15206353.9
28
42633.934
-743.9
743.9
1.7%
553437.2
29
42778.215
524.8
524.8
1.2%
275399.1
30
43266.250
-3242.2
3242.2
7.5% 10512182.2
31
42712.246
-5440.2
5440.2
12.7% 29596280.9
32
41505.186
-7980.2
7980.2
19.2% 63683373.3
33
39521.973
5102.0
5102.0
12.9% 26030678.2
34
41079.393
1355.6
1355.6
3.3%
1837671.1
35
41658.621
3408.4
3408.4
8.2% 11617049.1
36
42826.526
-32.5
32.5
0.1%
1058.0
37
43079.791
3182.2
3182.2
7.4% 10126451.4
38
44227.589
2630.4
2630.4
5.9%
6919060.5
39
45262.170
3480.8
3480.8
7.7% 12116175.4
40
46566.891
-3876.9
3876.9
8.3% 15030281.9
41
45867.494
473.5
473.5
1.0%
224208.1
42
46329.982
-3715.0
3715.0
8.0% 13801089.1
43
45632.453
587.5
587.5
1.3%
345211.2
44
46085.539
-3610.5
3610.5
7.8% 13035991.4
45
45377.384
572.6
572.6
1.3%
327889.0
46
45787.937
476.1
476.1
1.0%
226636.0
47
46178.880
2086.1
2086.1
4.5%
4351897.0
48
47024.088
49
46733.149
50
46733.149

51

H
46733.149

GM Revenue - Holts Method (Smoothing with Trend)


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

A
Smoothing constant(s)
Level (alpha)
Trend (beta)
Seasonality (gamma)
MAE
RMSE
MAPE

C
0.312
0.037
0.202

2670.440
3233.995
262762.99%

D
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
1-97
2-97
3-97
4-97
1-98
2-98
3-98
4-98
1-99
2-99
3-99
4-99
1-00
2-00
3-00
4-00
1-01
2-01
3-01
4-01
1-02
2-02
3-02
4-02
1-03

E
GM_Rev
29200
31300
28900
33600
32000
35200
29400
35800
35000
36658
30138
37268
37495
40392
34510
42553
43285
42204
35316
43935
39240
44780
39078
35183
42241
45146
41890
43303
40024
37272
33525
44624
42435
45067
42794
46262
46858
48743
42690
46341
42615
46220
42475
45950
46264
48265

F
SmLevel
29200.000
29855.671
29573.917
30839.828
31242.711
32527.642
31631.252
32987.284
33649.376
34502.621
33394.029
34492.750
35401.921
36772.011
36570.220
38200.324
39687.818
40176.215
39291.770
40316.302
39769.115
40950.496
41207.593
38957.144
39796.864
40920.123
42089.871
42346.775
41428.555
39614.923
38278.230
40010.994
40639.589
41637.379
42969.029
43589.116
44453.898
45314.030
45369.458
45245.141
44235.310
44299.605
44582.132
44598.179
45039.888
45481.659

G
SmTrend
0.000
24.178
12.897
59.102
71.779
116.515
79.164
126.249
146.008
172.088
124.862
160.774
188.371
231.948
215.954
268.101
313.067
319.532
275.135
302.769
271.427
304.982
303.216
209.048
232.305
265.159
298.516
296.982
252.171
175.993
120.212
179.676
196.230
225.788
266.567
279.603
301.182
321.794
311.971
295.883
247.734
240.970
242.502
234.151
241.805
249.179

A
51

D
2-03

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

H
SmSeason
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.005
1.017
0.986
1.017
1.012
1.026
0.969
1.030
1.022
1.040
0.964
1.047
1.035
1.042
0.951
1.056
1.026
1.053
0.950
1.025
1.033
1.063
0.959
1.024
1.019
1.038
0.942
1.043
1.024
1.047
0.953
1.046
1.030
1.053
0.951
1.042
1.017
1.051
0.951
1.040
1.019
1.053

I
Forecast

30898.931
31314.491
32644.157
31710.415
33275.398
34355.316
34181.443
34095.266
35069.261
36509.418
35856.098
37888.055
39295.528
41619.723
39032.823
41422.264
42058.746
41741.752
39223.813
43816.169
40169.334
42141.825
39136.861
43439.579
44043.867
44304.978
38172.854
39333.510
40969.335
42401.323
39455.796
45081.397
44938.088
46868.256
43503.255
47803.260
46923.965
46838.637
42348.448
46705.734
45588.022
47591.870

K
L
Error abs(error) abs(%error)

1101.1
3885.5
-3244.2
4089.6
1724.6
2302.7
-4043.4
3172.7
2425.7
3882.6
-1346.1
4664.9
3989.5
584.3
-3716.8
2512.7
-2818.7
3038.2
-145.8
-8633.2
2071.7
3004.2
2753.1
-136.6
-4019.9
-7033.0
-4647.9
5290.5
1465.7
2665.7
3338.2
1180.6
1919.9
1874.7
-813.3
-1462.3
-4309.0
-618.6
126.6
-755.7
676.0
673.1

1101.1
3885.5
3244.2
4089.6
1724.6
2302.7
4043.4
3172.7
2425.7
3882.6
1346.1
4664.9
3989.5
584.3
3716.8
2512.7
2818.7
3038.2
145.8
8633.2
2071.7
3004.2
2753.1
136.6
4019.9
7033.0
4647.9
5290.5
1465.7
2665.7
3338.2
1180.6
1919.9
1874.7
813.3
1462.3
4309.0
618.6
126.6
755.7
676.0
673.1

109571.3%
382218.2%
329097.3%
402045.1%
170415.7%
224471.3%
417288.6%
308046.3%
237468.1%
373156.6%
139654.9%
445599.6%
385291.2%
56046.4%
390934.3%
238053.0%
274835.4%
288593.4%
15344.5%
842425.5%
200580.9%
282623.3%
286983.9%
13333.2%
394346.5%
677331.2%
493144.0%
507387.7%
143078.8%
254548.8%
350184.6%
112820.0%
186332.9%
178046.0%
85535.3%
140336.6%
423753.7%
58860.7%
13304.8%
72693.7%
66341.4%
63920.7%

M
error^2

1212353.7
15097181.1
10524553.4
16724701.7
2974252.4
5302351.4
16349433.8
10066242.9
5884208.4
15074445.5
1811980.8
21761716.1
15915889.1
341379.6
13814776.8
6313844.5
7945330.1
9230951.7
21261.5
74531600.5
4291798.2
9025064.9
7579776.3
18653.9
16159332.8
49462774.6
21602544.3
27989283.4
2148175.1
7105833.0
11143606.7
1393823.4
3686062.5
3514666.4
661384.0
2138202.9
18567178.9
382711.7
16015.4
571134.6
456945.8
453103.8

GM Revenue - Winters Method (Smoothing with Trend and Seasonality)


60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

GM Revenue - Regression
60000

50000

Revenue

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

A
Smoothing constant(s)
Level (alpha)
Trend (beta)
Seasonality (gamma)

MAE
RMSE
MAPE

1.049
1.260
104.90%

0.364
0.000
0.000

D
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
1-97
2-97
3-97
4-97
1-98
2-98
3-98
4-98
1-99
2-99
3-99
4-99
1-00
2-00
3-00
4-00
1-01
2-01
3-01
4-01
1-02
2-02
3-02
4-02
1-03

E
GM_EPS
-1.28
-1.44
-1.88
-4.25
-0.53
-1.18
-1.86
-1.25
0.42
0.92
-0.49
1.28
1.86
2.23
0.4
1.74
2.51
2.39
0.42
1.98
0.94
2.63
1.57
0.92
2.30
2.68
1.35
2.37
2.31
0.54
-1.28
2.69
3.10
2.99
1.35
1.92
2.88
2.99
1.57
-0.64
0.54
1.05
-0.41
0.6
0.58
2.48

F
SmLevel
-1.280
-1.338
-1.535
-2.523
-1.798
-1.573
-1.677
-1.522
-0.816
-0.184
-0.296
0.277
0.853
1.354
1.007
1.274
1.723
1.966
1.404
1.613
1.368
1.827
1.734
1.438
1.751
2.089
1.820
2.020
2.126
1.549
0.520
1.309
1.961
2.335
1.977
1.956
2.292
2.546
2.191
1.161
0.935
0.977
0.473
0.519
0.541
1.246

G
SmTrend
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000

A
51

D
2-03

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

H
SmSeason
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

I
Forecast

-2.523
-1.798
-1.573
-1.677
-1.522
-0.816
-0.184
-0.296
0.277
0.853
1.354
1.007
1.274
1.723
1.966
1.404
1.613
1.368
1.827
1.734
1.438
1.751
2.089
1.820
2.020
2.126
1.549
0.520
1.309
1.961
2.335
1.977
1.956
2.292
2.546
2.191
1.161
0.935
0.977
0.473
0.519
0.541
1.246
1.246
1.246

K
L
Error abs(error) abs(%error)

2.0
0.6
-0.3
0.4
1.9
1.7
-0.3
1.6
1.6
1.4
-1.0
0.7
1.2
0.7
-1.5
0.6
-0.7
1.3
-0.3
-0.8
0.9
0.9
-0.7
0.5
0.3
-1.6
-2.8
2.2
1.8
1.0
-1.0
-0.1
0.9
0.7
-1.0
-2.8
-0.6
0.1
-1.4
0.1
0.1
1.9

2.0
0.6
0.3
0.4
1.9
1.7
0.3
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.0
0.7
1.2
0.7
1.5
0.6
0.7
1.3
0.3
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
1.6
2.8
2.2
1.8
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.9
0.7
1.0
2.8
0.6
0.1
1.4
0.1
0.1
1.9

199.3%
61.8%
28.7%
42.7%
194.2%
173.6%
30.6%
157.6%
158.3%
137.7%
95.4%
73.3%
123.6%
66.7%
154.6%
57.6%
67.3%
126.2%
25.7%
81.4%
86.2%
92.9%
73.9%
55.0%
29.0%
158.6%
282.9%
217.0%
179.1%
102.9%
98.5%
5.7%
92.4%
69.8%
97.6%
283.1%
62.1%
11.5%
138.7%
12.7%
6.1%
193.9%

M
error^2

4.0
0.4
0.1
0.2
3.8
3.0
0.1
2.5
2.5
1.9
0.9
0.5
1.5
0.4
2.4
0.3
0.5
1.6
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.1
2.5
8.0
4.7
3.2
1.1
1.0
0.0
0.9
0.5
1.0
8.0
0.4
0.0
1.9
0.0
0.0
3.8

H
51

J
1.246

GM EPS - Winters Method (Smoothing with Trend and Seasonality)


4

Revenue

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

GM EPS - Regression
4

Revenue

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5
1-91

1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

Quarters

1-98

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
1-97
2-97
3-97
4-97
1-98
2-98
3-98
4-98
1-99
2-99
3-99
4-99
1-00
2-00
3-00
4-00
1-01
2-01
3-01
4-01
1-02
2-02
3-02
4-02

Nike_Rev Nike_EPS
947
0.75
734
0.4
867
0.54
848
0.46
1098
0.8
876
0.49
972
0.58
983.3
0.5
1108
0.74
805.8
0.35
871.8
0.43
1004
0.46
1170
0.71
1054
0.58
1125
0.65
1412
0.78
1700
1.25
1357
0.34
1582
0.45
1832
-0.16
2282
0.76
2107
0.6
2424
0.8
2374
0.52
2766
0.85
2255
0.48
2224
0.25
2308
-0.23
2504
0.56
1913
0.24
2176
0.44
2184
0.33
2501
0.7
2060
0.38
2162
0.52
2272
0.47
2637
0.77
2199
0.44
2170
0.35
2483
0.6
2614
0.73
2337
0.48
2260
0.46
2682
0.77

Filed

May-92

May-93

May-94

May-95
Aug-95
Nov-95
Feb-96
May-96
Aug-96
Nov-96
Feb-97
May-97
Aug-97
Nov-97
2/1/1998
May-98
8/1/1998
11/1/1998
2/28/1999
5/1/1999
8/1/1999
########
2/28/2000
5/1/2000
8/31/2000
########
2/28/2001
5/1/2001
8/31/2001
########
2/28/2002
5/2/2002

1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
1-97
2-97
3-97
4-97
1-98
2-98
3-98
4-98
1-99
2-99
3-99
4-99
1-00
2-00
3-00
4-00
1-01
2-01
3-01
4-01
1-02
2-02
3-02
4-02

Nike_Rev
947
734
867
848
1098
876
972
983.3
1108
805.8
871.8
1004
1170
1054
1125
1412
1700
1357
1582
1832
2282
2107
2424
2374
2766
2255
2224
2308
2504
1913
2176
2184
2501
2060
2162
2272
2637
2199
2170
2483
2614
2337
2260
2682

Nike_EPS
0.75
0.4
0.54
0.46
0.8
0.49
0.58
0.5
0.74
0.35
0.43
0.46
0.71
0.58
0.65
0.78
1.25
0.34
0.45
-0.16
0.76
0.6
0.8
0.52
0.85
0.48
0.25
-0.23
0.56
0.24
0.44
0.33
0.7
0.38
0.52
0.47
0.77
0.44
0.35
0.6
0.73
0.48
0.46
0.77

Trend
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

1Q
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

2Q
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

Revenue Model
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.915581128
R Square
0.838288801
Adjusted R Square
0.821703037
Standard Error
279.4457843
Observations
44
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Trend
1Q
2Q
3Q

4
39
43

SS
15787497.66
3045507.909
18833005.57

MS
3946874.415
78089.94639

Coefficients Standard Error


t Stat
742.2
116.1389834 6.390619052
46.28068182
3.330513764 13.89595873
224.7238636
119.5742571 1.879366588
-151.4840909
119.342119 -1.269326305
-94.49204545
119.2026191 -0.792701085

F
Significance F
50.54267032
6.4513E-15

P-value
1.48607E-07
1.08802E-16
0.067681531
0.211847476
0.432747948

EPS Model
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.607919518
R Square
0.36956614
Adjusted R Square
0.304906257
Standard Error
0.207993733
Observations
44
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

4
39
43

SS
0.989048864
1.687194318
2.676243182

MS
0.247262216
0.043261393

F
Significance F
5.715539886
0.001016555

Intercept
Trend
1Q
2Q
3Q

Coefficients Standard Error


t Stat
0.435681818
0.086443174 5.040095086
-0.001107955
0.002478928 -0.446949056
0.371221591
0.089000076 4.171025548
0.023238636
0.088827294 0.261615945
0.087073864
0.088723463 0.981407407

P-value
1.10348E-05
0.657384165
0.000163668
0.794994313
0.332441145

3Q
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1

Rev Forecast EPS Forecast


1013.20
0.81
683.28
0.46
786.55
0.52
927.32
0.43
1198.33
0.80
868.40
0.45
971.67
0.52
1112.45
0.43
1383.45
0.80
1053.52
0.45
1156.80
0.51
1297.57
0.42
1568.57
0.79
1238.65
0.44
1341.92
0.51
1482.69
0.42
1753.70
0.79
1423.77
0.44
1527.04
0.50
1667.81
0.41
1938.82
0.78
1608.89
0.43
1712.16
0.50
1852.94
0.41
2123.94
0.78
1794.01
0.43
1897.29
0.49
2038.06
0.40
2309.06
0.77
1979.14
0.43
2082.41
0.49
2223.18
0.40
2494.19
0.77
2164.26
0.42
2267.53
0.48
2408.30
0.40
2679.31
0.77
2349.38
0.42
2452.65
0.48
2593.43
0.39
2864.43
0.76
2534.50
0.41
2637.78
0.48
2778.55
0.39
3049.55
0.76
2719.63
0.41
2822.90
0.47
2963.67
0.38

0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49

A
Smoothing constant(s)
Level (alpha)
Trend (beta)
Seasonality (gamma)
MAE
RMSE
MAPE

C
0.799
0.608
1.000

154.559
191.935
15536.55%

D
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
1-97
2-97
3-97
4-97
1-98
2-98
3-98
4-98
1-99
2-99
3-99
4-99
1-00
2-00
3-00
4-00
1-01
2-01
3-01
4-01
1-02
2-02
3-02
4-02
1-03
2-03
3-03
4-03

E
Nike_Rev
947
734
867
848
1098
876
972
983.3
1108
805.8
871.8
1004
1170
1054
1125
1412
1700
1357
1582
1832
2282
2107
2424
2374
2766
2255
2224
2308
2504
1913
2176
2184
2501
2060
2162
2272
2637
2199
2170
2483
2614
2337
2260
2682

F
SmLevel
947.000
776.721
828.133
842.142
1047.657
935.866
961.099
980.490
1044.822
906.787
857.710
961.171
1083.006
1183.495
1141.538
1312.070
1542.903
1564.244
1614.014
1697.357
2011.307
2389.271
2519.668
2304.501
2400.894
2533.502
2375.447
2255.772
2170.789
2135.693
2275.081
2175.323
2162.384
2267.829
2273.049
2269.993
2279.557
2394.302
2318.783
2444.864
2310.838
2486.839
2446.577
2603.690

G
SmTrend
0.000
-103.505
-9.338
4.854
126.827
-18.218
8.193
15.000
44.987
-66.264
-55.817
41.001
90.137
96.430
12.310
108.486
182.856
84.678
63.459
75.545
220.462
316.200
203.259
-51.085
38.561
95.728
-58.536
-95.700
-89.185
-56.306
62.647
-36.072
-22.010
55.464
24.923
7.916
8.918
73.245
-17.182
69.901
-54.057
85.785
9.167
99.096

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49

H
SmSeason
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.048
0.936
1.011
1.003
1.060
0.889
1.016
1.045
1.080
0.891
0.986
1.076
1.102
0.868
0.980
1.079
1.135
0.882
0.962
1.030
1.152
0.890
0.936
1.023
1.153
0.896
0.956
1.004
1.157
0.908
0.951
1.001
1.157
0.918
0.936
1.016
1.131
0.940
0.924
1.030

I
Forecast

846.997
1174.484
917.648
969.292
1043.328
1020.094
850.056
804.191
1062.771
1042.493
1300.950
1205.263
1534.664
1536.931
1625.034
1805.233
1953.417
1936.086
2651.808
2938.924
2556.693
2151.256
2529.402
2386.784
2488.556
1852.777
1946.816
2391.854
2467.622
1917.193
2222.113
2307.138
2634.615
2078.754
2346.996
2303.636
2909.089
2072.697
2407.554
2494.050

K
L
Error abs(error) abs(%error)

251.0
-298.5
54.4
14.0
64.7
-214.3
21.7
199.8
107.2
11.5
-176.0
206.7
165.3
-179.9
-43.0
26.8
328.6
170.9
-227.8
-564.9
209.3
103.7
-305.4
-78.8
15.4
60.2
229.2
-207.9
33.4
142.8
-60.1
-35.1
2.4
120.2
-177.0
179.4
-295.1
264.3
-147.6
187.9

251.0
298.5
54.4
14.0
64.7
214.3
21.7
199.8
107.2
11.5
176.0
206.7
165.3
179.9
43.0
26.8
328.6
170.9
227.8
564.9
209.3
103.7
305.4
78.8
15.4
60.2
229.2
207.9
33.4
142.8
60.1
35.1
2.4
120.2
177.0
179.4
295.1
264.3
147.6
187.9

23949.5%
31888.2%
5374.3%
1396.8%
6098.5%
24115.1%
2139.3%
19128.5%
9925.6%
1292.1%
17853.7%
19210.6%
15005.7%
20741.0%
4390.4%
2480.0%
28960.6%
19381.1%
23679.9%
54838.6%
18167.9%
11655.7%
32619.9%
7700.1%
1338.9%
6723.3%
23962.0%
20702.8%
2885.9%
15721.5%
6320.0%
3510.7%
206.2%
13092.5%
18913.1%
17661.0%
26086.6%
28124.9%
15973.5%
18246.2%

M
error^2

63002.7
89092.4
2954.2
196.2
4182.5
45922.1
472.8
39923.5
11498.1
132.4
30958.5
42740.3
27335.9
32375.0
1851.9
716.5
107966.5
29211.7
51896.5
319139.5
43809.5
10762.9
93270.6
6206.9
238.5
3626.8
52525.5
43203.2
1114.1
20393.9
3613.5
1234.6
5.7
14459.0
31327.6
32171.6
87077.5
69856.3
21772.2
35325.2

Nike Revenue (Winters)


3500

3000

Revenue

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

1-98

Quarters

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1-03

Nike Revenue (Regression)


3500

3000

Revenue

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

1-98

Quarters

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1-03

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49

A
Smoothing constant(s)
Level (alpha)
Trend (beta)
Seasonality (gamma)
MAE
RMSE
MAPE

C
0.571
0.000
0.211
0.201
0.269
20.48%

D
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
1-97
2-97
3-97
4-97
1-98
2-98
3-98
4-98
1-99
2-99
3-99
4-99
1-00
2-00
3-00
4-00
1-01
2-01
3-01
4-01
1-02
2-02
3-02
4-02
1-03
2-03
3-03
4-03

E
Nike_EPS
0.75
0.4
0.54
0.46
0.8
0.49
0.58
0.5
0.74
0.35
0.43
0.46
0.71
0.58
0.65
0.78
1.25
0.34
0.45
-0.16
0.76
0.6
0.8
0.52
0.85
0.48
0.25
-0.23
0.56
0.24
0.44
0.33
0.7
0.38
0.52
0.47
0.77
0.44
0.35
0.6
0.73
0.48
0.46
0.77

F
SmLevel
0.750
0.550
0.544
0.496
0.670
0.567
0.574
0.532
0.634
0.478
0.450
0.459
0.577
0.607
0.634
0.722
0.958
0.620
0.523
0.134
0.437
0.591
0.725
0.857
0.750
0.632
0.414
-0.059
0.233
0.260
0.386
0.314
0.403
0.422
0.490
0.430
0.470
0.488
0.412
0.464
0.466
0.510
0.494
0.573

G
SmTrend
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49

H
SmSeason
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.041
0.971
1.002
0.987
1.068
0.921
0.992
0.990
1.102
0.928
0.999
1.009
1.145
0.848
0.970
0.544
1.271
0.883
0.998
0.557
1.242
0.857
0.915
1.268
1.488
0.871
0.962
1.222
1.540
0.877
0.983
1.195
1.561
0.883
0.955
1.216
1.562
0.895
0.950
1.243

I
Forecast

0.496
0.670
0.567
0.574
0.554
0.616
0.479
0.444
0.490
0.531
0.602
0.628
0.796
0.889
0.619
0.528
0.153
0.370
0.573
0.394
1.089
0.662
0.631
0.231
-0.073
0.199
0.238
0.490
0.467
0.352
0.406
0.599
0.662
0.412
0.480
0.493
0.724
0.411
0.487
0.601

K
L
Error abs(error) abs(%error)

0.3
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
-0.5
-0.2
-0.7
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
0.6
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2

0.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2

29.2%
18.5%
1.3%
7.5%
17.4%
28.9%
4.9%
1.6%
20.0%
5.3%
4.8%
15.0%
39.7%
64.7%
17.4%
126.5%
47.8%
26.0%
22.7%
22.6%
19.3%
21.2%
41.6%
36.3%
42.5%
4.7%
21.0%
13.1%
15.1%
3.2%
11.6%
10.8%
6.9%
3.1%
13.6%
8.8%
0.4%
7.7%
2.9%
13.6%

M
error^2

0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Nike EPS (Winters)


1.4

1.2

Revenue

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.4
1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

1-98

Quarters

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1-03

Nike EPS (Regression)


1.4

1.2

Revenue

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.4
1-92

1-93

1-94

1-95

1-96

1-97

1-98

Quarters

1-99

1-00

1-01

1-02

1-03