Diffusion INDEX

Market
Market
Size
Size
Diffusion Index Diffusion Index CMI Volumes Productio Producti
n6M
on 6 M
(Based on 6M R (Based on 6M
later
earlier
Squ. Adj)
R Squ.)
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
88.09
99.00
Jul-04
88.09
99.00
Aug-04
88.09
99.00
Sep-04
79.81
91.35
Oct-04
79.64
91.17
Nov-04
78.81
90.69
Dec-04
83.35
95.06
Jan-05
85.04
96.73
Feb-05
69.20
82.14
Mar-05
59.56
73.34
Apr-05
51.73
65.95
May-05
64.27
77.27
Jun-05
68.10
80.61
Jul-05
68.06
80.36
Aug-05
55.27
68.71
Sep-05
44.99
61.28
Oct-05
43.38
59.31
Nov-05
43.73
58.05
Dec-05
59.44
71.57
Jan-06
71.20
82.72
Feb-06
66.52
77.97
Mar-06
61.36
73.59
Apr-06
57.19
69.31
May-06
68.48
79.53
Jun-06
76.91
86.32
Jul-06
78.37
87.36
Aug-06
58.48
69.49
Sep-06
48.52
60.76
Oct-06
46.35
59.03
Nov-06
48.87
61.78
Dec-06
56.36
68.96
Jan-07
61.41
73.75
Feb-07
55.98
67.83
Mar-07
50.94
63.44
Apr-07
46.68
59.04
May-07
41.62
55.11
Jun-07
36.71
49.04
Jul-07
45.54
57.91
Aug-07
54.15
65.64
Sep-07
58.42
69.58
Oct-07
68.72
78.13
Nov-07
70.22
79.71
Dec-07
76.86
86.84
Jan-08
74.26
85.63
Feb-08
61.67
73.63
Mar-08
51.33
64.34
Apr-08
45.88
58.70
May-08
61.80
72.25
Jun-08
66.22
75.99
Jul-08
64.99
74.53
2,037
Aug-08
58.95
68.04
5,916
Sep-08
49.54
59.81
7,439
Oct-08
57.69
67.23
6,724
Nov-08
64.03
73.62
6,246
Dec-08
70.37
80.14
7,494
Jan-09
53.39
64.68
2,037
8,470
7,494
Feb-09
37.45
49.37
5,916
9,022
8,470
Mar-09
34.42
46.80
7,439
8,458
9,022
Apr-09
43.17
54.57
6,724
8,908
8,458
May-09
52.84
65.23
6,246
8,588
8,908
Jun-09
60.80
72.77
7,494
10,604
8,588
Jul-09
68.94
82.29
8,470
10,982
10,604
Aug-09
73.27
87.37
9,022
11,489
10,982
Sep-09
70.42
85.68
8,458
11,887
11,489
Oct-09
75.27
89.46
8,908
10,841
11,887
Nov-09
79.87
93.15
8,588
10,664
10,841
Dec-09
83.49
96.91
10,604
10,169
10,664
Jan-10
82.60
96.73
10,982
11,100
10,169
Feb-10
73.77
88.18
11,489
12,164
11,100
Mar-10
74.01
87.08
11,887
11,109
12,164
Apr-10
74.75
85.99
10,841
10,508
11,109
May-10
73.11
83.54
10,664
12,041
10,508
Jun-10
64.94
75.13
10,169
13,198
12,041
Jul-10
63.79
73.49
11,100
13,158
13,198
Aug-10
58.69
67.55
12,164
12,952
13,158
Sep-10
46.76
57.18
11,109
14,628
12,952
Oct-10
47.72
59.03
10,508
13,828
14,628
Nov-10
47.64
59.26
12,041
14,207
13,828
Dec-10
54.35
66.28
13,198
13,346
14,207
Jan-11
58.81
70.95
13,158
14,433
13,346
Feb-11
50.60
63.22
12,952
13,448
14,433
Mar-11
48.11
61.05
14,628
14,075
13,448
Apr-11
45.58
58.26
13,828
12,963
14,075
May-11
43.77
56.46
14,207
14,786
12,963
Jun-11
40.91
52.99
13,346
13,967
14,786
Jul-11
43.53
54.67
14,433
15,797
13,967
Aug-11
46.68
56.45
13,448
15,981
15,797
Sep-11
43.63
53.84
14,075
11,144
15,981
Oct-11
44.70
54.25
12,963
11,583
11,144
Nov-11
36.22
46.78
14,786
8,179
11,583
Dec-11
40.88
49.51
49.86
54.69
47.30
53.31
51.73
56.66
13,967
15,797
15,981
11,144
7,260
9,861
11,477
13,665
8,179
7,260
9,861
11,477
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
51.99
56.42
54.75
55.88
53.46
39.41
33.02
21.42
21.71
22.67
27.45
33.00
37.60
45.25
45.94
51.40
54.52
49.75
54.35
58.87
57.75
57.99
54.60
39.40
33.62
23.31
25.30
27.15
31.77
36.77
41.31
48.08
48.78
53.26
54.96
51.63
11,583
8,179
7,260
9,861
11,477
13,665
12,473
6,968
4,014
6,905
6,077
8,448
8,470
8,769
6,995
8,003
7,252
4,744
7,461
6,221
3,882
12,473
6,968
4,014
6,905
6,077
8,448
8,470
8,769
6,995
8,003
7,252
4,744
7,461
6,221
3,882
13,665
12,473
6,968
4,014
6,905
6,077
8,448
8,470
8,769
6,995
8,003
7,252
4,744
7,461
6,221
3,882
6,077
8,448
8,470
8,769
6,995
8,003
7,252
4,744
7,461
6,221
3,882
Market
Market
Size
Market Size
Size
Producti Production
Production
on 7M
8M later
9M later
later
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Diffusion Index
(Based on 6M R Squ. Adj)
Diff
(Ba
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 D
Market Size Production 6 M earlier
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
8,470
9,022
8,458
9,022
8,458
8,908
8,458
8,908
8,588
8,908
8,588
10,604
8,588
10,604
10,982
10,604
10,982
11,489
10,982
11,489
11,887
11,489
11,887
10,841
11,887
10,841
10,664
10,841
10,664
10,169
10,664
10,169
11,100
10,169
11,100
12,164
11,100
12,164
11,109
12,164
11,109
10,508
11,109
10,508
12,041
10,508
12,041
13,198
12,041
13,198
13,158
13,198
13,158
12,952
13,158
12,952
14,628
12,952
14,628
13,828
14,628
13,828
14,207
13,828
14,207
13,346
14,207
13,346
14,433
13,346
14,433
13,448
14,433
13,448
14,075
13,448
14,075
12,963
14,075
12,963
14,786
12,963
14,786
13,967
14,786
13,967
15,797
13,967
15,797
15,981
15,797
15,981
11,144
15,981
11,144
11,583
11,144
11,583
8,179
11,583
8,179
7,260
8,179
7,260
9,861
7,260
9,861
11,477
13,665
9,861
11,477
13,665
12,473
11,477
13,665
12,473
6,968
12,473
6,968
4,014
6,905
6,077
8,448
8,470
8,769
6,995
8,003
7,252
4,744
7,461
6,221
###
6,968
4,014
6,905
6,077
8,448
8,470
8,769
6,995
8,003
7,252
4,744
7,461
6,221
3,882
4,014
6,905
6,077
8,448
8,470
8,769
6,995
8,003
7,252
4,744
7,461
6,221
3,882
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Jul-08
n Index
on 6M R Squ. Adj)
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-0
Mar
Diffusion Index
(Based on 6M R Squ.)
18,000
16,000
90.00
14,000
12,000
80.00
10,000
70.00
8,000
60.00
6,000
50.00
40.00
4,000
2,000
-
30.00
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-0
Ma
20.00
10.00
9 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13 Sep-13
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
Production 6 M earlier
Diffusion Index
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Jul-08
Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10

Market Size Production
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Market Size Production 6 M later
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Diffusion Index
Ap
110
100
90
India Onhighway
Volume Trend for last 10 years
80
70
60
50
40
Onhighway30
Vol (S eas onaly Adj)
20
10
0
On Highway India
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Market Size Production 7M later
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Diffusion Index
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Diffusion Index
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Aug-12 Mar-13
Diffusion Index
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-11
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
Oct-11
Jan-12
n Index
on 6M R Squ. Adj)
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
rs
Highway India
12
-12
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
Feb-13
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
Feb-13
Diffusion Index Diffusion Index

(Based on 6M R (Based on 6M
Squ. Adj)
R Squ.)
Market Size
Production
Market
Market
Size
Size
Productio Producti
n6M
on 6 M
later
earlier
Apr-04
14,664
16,341
May-04
16,228
17,878
Jun-04
88.09
99.00
15,685
23,579
Jul-04
88.09
99.00
16,901
19,742
Aug-04
88.09
99.00
15,259
19,107
Sep-04
79.81
91.35
17,142
22,301
Oct-04
79.64
91.17
16,341
12,590
14,664
Nov-04
78.81
90.69
17,878
16,129
16,228
Dec-04
83.35
95.06
23,579
16,468
15,685
Jan-05
85.04
96.73
19,742
18,268
16,901
Feb-05
69.20
82.14
19,107
18,421
15,259
Mar-05
59.56
73.34
22,301
18,672
17,142
Apr-05
51.73
65.95
12,590
20,189
16,341
May-05
64.27
77.27
16,129
18,183
17,878
Jun-05
68.10
80.61
16,468
13,187
23,579
Jul-05
68.06
80.36
18,268
20,757
19,742
Aug-05
55.27
40,000
68.71
18,421
21,237
19,107
Sep-05
44.99
61.28
18,672
25,238
22,301
Oct-05
43.38
59.31
20,189
19,676
12,590
Nov-05
43.73
58.05
18,183
21,051
16,129
Dec-05
59.44
71.57
13,187
22,031
16,468
Jan-06
71.20
82.72
20,757
24,077
18,268
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
Feb-06
66.52
77.97
21,237
22,932
18,421
25,238
24,567
18,672
5,000
Mar-06
61.36
73.59
Apr-06
57.19
69.31
19,676
23,307
20,189
May-06
68.48
79.53
21,051
26,533
18,183
Jun-06
76.91
86.32
22,031
25,652
13,187
Jul-06
78.37
87.36
24,077
29,036
20,757
Aug-06
58.48
69.49
22,932
27,066
21,237
Sep-06
48.52
60.76
24,567
28,971
25,238
Oct-06
46.35
59.03
23,307
21,075
19,676
Nov-06
48.87
61.78
26,533
23,289
21,051
Dec-06
56.36
68.96
25,652
18,755
22,031
Jan-07
61.41
73.75
29,036
20,693
24,077
Feb-07
55.98
67.83
27,066
22,439
22,932
Mar-07
50.94
63.44
28,971
23,631
24,567
Apr-07
46.68
59.04
21,075
24,743
23,307
May-07
41.62
55.11
23,289
25,411
26,533
Jun-07
36.71
49.04
18,755
25,315
25,652
Jul-07
45.54
57.91
20,693
26,483
29,036
Aug-07
54.15
65.64
22,439
29,138
27,066
Sep-07
58.42
69.58
23,631
33,432
28,971
Oct-07
68.72
78.13
24,743
23,502
21,075
Nov-07
70.22
79.71
25,411
25,714
23,289
Dec-07
76.86
86.84
25,315
21,424
18,755
Jan-08
74.26
85.63
26,483
20,383
20,693
Feb-08
61.67
73.63
29,138
21,493
22,439
Mar-08
51.33
64.34
33,432
16,487
23,631
Apr-08
45.88
58.70
23,502
16,072
24,743
May-08
61.80
72.25
25,714
7,701
25,411
Jun-08
66.22
75.99
21,424
4,986
25,315
Jul-08
64.99
74.53
20,383
5,800
26,483
Aug-08
58.95
68.04
21,493
12,313
29,138
Sep-08
49.54
59.81
16,487
17,053
33,432
Oct-08
57.69
67.23
16,072
12,999
23,502
Nov-08
64.03
73.62
7,701
13,021
25,714
Dec-08
70.37
80.14
4,986
14,336
21,424
Jan-09
53.39
64.68
5,800
16,999
20,383
Feb-09
37.45
49.37
12,313
17,804
21,493
Mar-09
34.42
46.80
17,053
20,362
16,487
Apr-09
43.17
54.57
12,999
20,626
16,072
May-09
52.84
65.23
13,021
21,422
7,701
Jun-09
60.80
72.77
14,336
23,384
4,986
Jul-09
68.94
82.29
16,999
25,973
5,800
Aug-09
73.27
87.37
17,804
27,372
12,313
Sep-09
70.42
85.68
20,362
34,835
17,053
Oct-09
75.27
89.46
20,626
24,657
12,999
Nov-09
79.87
93.15
21,422
25,885
13,021
Dec-09
83.49
96.91
23,384
26,769
14,336
Jan-10
82.60
96.73
25,973
28,135
16,999
Feb-10
73.77
88.18
27,372
26,684
17,804
Mar-10
74.01
87.08
34,835
31,645
20,362
Apr-10
74.75
85.99
24,657
20,762
20,626
May-10
73.11
83.54
25,885
26,942
21,422
Jun-10
64.94
75.13
26,769
31,867
23,384
Jul-10
63.79
73.49
28,135
31,589
25,973
Aug-10
58.69
67.55
26,684
31,550
27,372
Sep-10
46.76
57.18
31,645
37,919
34,835
Oct-10
47.72
59.03
20,762
29,269
24,657
Nov-10
47.64
59.26
26,942
28,910
25,885
Dec-10
54.35
66.28
31,867
29,189
26,769
Jan-11
58.81
70.95
31,589
29,493
28,135
Feb-11
50.60
63.22
31,550
31,592
26,684
Mar-11
48.11
61.05
37,919
31,400
31,645
Apr-11
45.58
58.26
29,269
27,208
20,762
May-11
43.77
56.46
28,910
32,834
26,942
Jun-11
40.91
52.99
29,189
31,137
31,867
Jul-11
43.53
54.67
29,493
33,954
31,589
Aug-11
46.68
56.45
31,592
36,302
31,550
Sep-11
43.63
53.84
31,400
36,529
37,919
Oct-11
44.70
54.25
27,208
24,533
29,269
Nov-11
36.22
46.78
32,834
24,637
28,910
Dec-11
40.88
49.51
49.86
54.69
47.30
53.31
51.73
56.66
31,137
33,954
36,302
36,529
20,750
23,096
26,176
29,250
29,189
29,493
31,592
31,400
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
51.99
56.42
54.75
55.88
53.46
39.41
33.02
21.42
21.71
22.67
27.45
33.00
37.60
45.25
45.94
51.40
54.52
49.75
54.35
58.87
57.75
57.99
54.60
39.40
33.62
23.31
25.30
27.15
31.77
36.77
41.31
48.08
48.78
53.26
54.96
51.63
24,533
24,637
20,750
23,096
26,176
29,250
27,632
19,136
16,325
20,716
18,987
27,327
24,331
24,358
16,940
19,482
19,425
13,518
16,254
13,450
11,454
27,632
19,136
16,325
20,716
18,987
27,327
24,331
24,358
16,940
19,482
19,425
13,518
16,254
13,450
11,454
27,208
32,834
31,137
33,954
36,302
36,529
24,533
24,637
20,750
23,096
26,176
29,250
27,632
19,136
16,325
20,716
18,987
27,327
24,331
24,358
16,940
19,482
19,425
13,518
16,254
13,450
11,454
Market
Market
Size
Market Size
Size
Producti Production
Production
on 7M
8M later
9M later
later
17,878
23,579
19,742
23,579
19,742
19,107
19,742
19,107
22,301
19,107
22,301
12,590
22,301
12,590
16,129
12,590
16,129
16,468
16,129
16,468
18,268
16,468
18,268
18,421
18,268
18,421
18,672
18,421
18,672
20,189
18,672
20,189
18,183
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Diffusion Index
Diff
(Ba
40000.0000
35000.0000
30000.0000
25000.0000
20000.0000
15000.0000
10000.0000
20,189
18,183
13,187
18,183
13,187
20,757
13,187
20,757
21,237
20,757
21,237
25,238
21,237
25,238
19,676
25,238
19,676
21,051
19,676
21,051
22,031
21,051
22,031
24,077
22,031
24,077
22,932
24,077
22,932
24,567
22,932
24,567
23,307
5000.0000
0.0000
Market Size Pr
Diffusion Index
(Based on 6M
24,567
23,307
26,533
23,307
26,533
25,652
26,533
25,652
29,036
25,652
Market Size Production 6 M later

29,036
27,066
29,036
27,066
28,971
27,066
28,971
21,075
28,971
21,075
23,289
21,075
23,289
18,755
23,289
18,755
20,693
18,755
20,693
22,439
20,693
22,439
23,631
22,439
23,631
24,743
23,631
24,743
25,411
24,743
25,411
25,315
25,411
25,315
26,483
25,315
26,483
29,138
26,483
29,138
33,432
29,138
33,432
23,502
33,432
23,502
25,714
23,502
25,714
21,424
25,714
21,424
20,383
21,424
20,383
21,493
20,383
21,493
16,487
21,493
16,487
16,072
Diffusion Index
16,487
16,072
7,701
16,072
7,701
4,986
7,701
4,986
5,800
4,986
5,800
12,313
5,800
12,313
17,053
12,313
17,053
12,999
17,053
12,999
13,021
12,999
13,021
14,336
13,021
14,336
16,999
14,336
16,999
17,804
16,999
17,804
20,362
17,804
20,362
20,626
20,362
20,626
21,422
20,626
21,422
23,384
21,422
23,384
25,973
23,384
25,973
27,372
25,973
27,372
34,835
27,372
34,835
24,657
34,835
24,657
25,885
24,657
25,885
26,769
25,885
26,769
28,135
26,769
28,135
26,684
28,135
26,684
31,645
26,684
31,645
20,762
31,645
20,762
26,942
20,762
26,942
31,867
26,942
31,867
31,589
31,867
31,589
31,550
31,589
31,550
37,919
31,550
37,919
29,269
37,919
29,269
28,910
29,269
28,910
29,189
28,910
29,189
29,493
29,189
29,493
31,592
29,493
31,592
31,400
31,592
31,400
27,208
31,400
27,208
32,834
27,208
32,834
31,137
32,834
31,137
33,954
31,137
33,954
36,302
33,954
36,302
36,529
36,302
36,529
24,533
36,529
24,533
24,637
24,533
24,637
20,750
24,637
20,750
23,096
20,750
23,096
26,176
23,096
26,176
29,250
27,632
26,176
29,250
27,632
19,136
29,250
27,632
19,136
16,325
19,136
16,325
20,716
18,987
27,327
24,331
24,358
16,940
19,482
19,425
13,518
16,254
13,450
###
16,325
20,716
18,987
27,327
24,331
24,358
16,940
19,482
19,425
13,518
16,254
13,450
11,454
20,716
18,987
27,327
24,331
24,358
16,940
19,482
19,425
13,518
16,254
13,450
11,454
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
n Index
on 6M R Squ. Adj)
Mar
Diffusion Index
(Based on 6M R Squ.)
40,000
35,000
100.00
30,000
90.00
25,000
80.00
20,000
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
20.00
10.00
Market Size Production 6 M earlier
40,000
Diffusion Index
35,000
30,000
25,000
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
-
110
100
90
India Onhighway
Volume Trend for last 10 years
80
70
60
50
40
Onhighway30
Vol (S eas onaly Adj)
20
10
0
On Highway India
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
-
Diffusion Index
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
-
Diffusion Index
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
-
Diffusion Index
rs
Highway India
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
-

Diffusion INDEX

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Diffusion INDEX

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Market

Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 D

Market Size Production 6 M earlier

9 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13 Sep-13

Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10

Market Size Production 6 M later

Market Size Production 7M later

Market Size Production 8M later

Diffusion Index Diffusion Index

Market Size Production 6 M later

Market Size Production 6 M earlier

Market Size Production

Market Size Production

Market Size Production 7M later

Market Size Production 8M later

Market Size Production 9M later

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