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Michel BERTHÉLEMY
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Jury
T
Prof Marc BAUDRY, Professeur des Universités, Université Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense Rapporteur
Dr Michael POLLITT, Reader in Business Economics, University of Cambridge Rapporteur H
Dr Dominique FINON, Directeur de Recherche CNRS, CIRED Examinateur
Dr Virginie PIGNON, Economiste, Electricité de France Examinateur
È
Prof François LEVEQUE, Professeur d’Economie, Mines ParisTech Examinateur
S
E
MINES ParisTech
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pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
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ͳǤ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ ͳ
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r ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ ͷ
ͶǤ
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ͷǤ
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ǀŝ
ʹǤ͵Ǥ
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͵ǤͳǤ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ Ͷͺ
͵ǤʹǤ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ ͷʹ
ͶǤ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ ͷͻ
ͶǤͳǤ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ ͳ
ͶǤʹǤ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ ʹ
ͶǤ͵Ǥ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ ʹ
ͶǤͶǤ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ ͵
ͷǤ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ ͵
ͷǤͳǤ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ ͺ
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
ǀŝŝ
ʹǤʹǤ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͲ
ʹǤ͵Ǥ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͳͲ
͵Ǥ
ǣ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͳ͵
͵ǤͳǤ
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͳ͵
͵ǤʹǤ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͳͶ
ͶǤ
r
Ǧǣ r
ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳʹͲ
ͶǤͳǤ Ǧ r
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ȋ Ǥǡ ʹͲͲȌǡ ȋ ǡ ʹͲͳ͵Ȍǡ
ȋ ǡ ʹͲͲͷȌǤ
ǡ ȋǡ ʹͲͲʹǢ ǡ ʹͲͲʹȌǤ
ǡ ȋʹͲͳʹ)
Ǥ ȋͳͻͻͻ) k
Ǧ
Ǥ
Ͷͷ ǡ
Ǥ ȋʹͲͲȌ ȋʹͲͳ͵Ȍǡ
ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ϳϳ
r
r Ǥ
͵ r
Ǥ
Ͷ
Ǥ
ͷ
r
ǡ
Ǥ ǡ
Ǥ
5HVWUXFWXULQJRIWKH86HOHFWULFLW\PDUNHW
r ͵ͷ
Ǥ
ȋǤǤ
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
ǡ ʹͲͲͷǢ ǡ ʹͲͲǢ ǡ ʹͲͳʹȌǡ
Ǥ
ͳͻͺ r
Ǥ
ͳͻͻʹǡ
Ǧ r
Ǧ
r r
Ǥ
ǡ ǡ ͳͻͻ
Ǥ
Ͷǡ ǡ Ǧ
ǡ ǡ
Ǥ
ϳϴ
ǡ
r
Ǧ
r
Ǥ
ʹͲͳͳǡ ͷΨ ͳͲ͵
r
ͷͲΨ Ǥ r
͵Ǥͳ r
Ǥ
r ǡ
r
Ǥ ͵Ǥͳ r
ǡ
r
ͳͻͻͷǡ ǡ
r
ȋ ǡ ǡ
r Ȍ Ǥ
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
͵Ǥͳǣ f
f
ϮϬ
ϭϴ
ϭϲ
ϭϰ
ϭϮ
ϭϬ
ϴ
ϲ
ϰ
Ϯ
Ϭ
ϭϵϵϰ ϭϵϵϲ ϭϵϵϴ ϮϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϮ ϮϬϬϰ ϮϬϬϲ ϮϬϬϴ ϮϬϭϬ
zĞĂƌ
ηŶƵĐůĞĂƌƌĞĂĐƚŽƌƐĚŝǀĞƐƚĞĚ ηƐƚĂƚĞƐĐƌĞĂƚŝŶŐĂǁŚŽůĞƐĂůĞŵĂƌŬĞƚ
:
ǯ
Ǥ
Ǥ
ϳϵ
͵Ǥͳǣ f
f ʹͲͳͳ
ͳͻͻͷ ʹͲͳͳ
Ǧ
ͳͲ͵ Ͳ ͳͲ͵ ͳͺ ͵ ͷͷ
Ͳ Ͳ Ͳ Ͷʹ Ͷͺ
ͳͲ͵ Ͳ ͳͲ͵ ʹͶ ͻ ͳͲ͵
r r r
Ǥ ͵Ǥʹǡ
r
ͳͻͺͲǡ
r ͳͻͻͲ
ͳͻͻͻǦʹͲͲͲ
r
Ǥ
ϰϬ
ϭϬϬ
ϯϱ
ϯϬ ϴϬ
Ϯϱ
ϲϬ
й
ϮϬ
ϭϱ ϰϬ
ϭϬ
ϮϬ
ϱ
Ϭ Ϭ
ϭϵϳϱ ϭϵϴϬ ϭϵϴϱ ϭϵϵϬ ϭϵϵϱ ϮϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϱ ϮϬϭϬ
zĞĂƌ
h^ƵŶĂǀĂŝůĂďŝůŝƚLJĨĂĐƚŽƌ;ůĞĨƚĂdžŝƐͿ
EŽŶͲh^ƵŶĂǀĂŝůĂďŝůŝƚLJĨĂĐƚŽƌ;ůĞĨƚĂdžŝƐͿ
ηƌĞĂĐƚŽƌƐŝŶŽƉĞƌĂƚŝŽŶŝŶƚŚĞh^;ƌŝŐŚƚĂdžŝƐͿ
:
ȋȌǡ ǣȀȀǤǤȀȀ
ϴϬ
r r
r
Ǥ
ǡ
ǣ ȋȌ
ȋȌ
Ǧ ͳͻͻͲǡ ȋȌ Ǧ
ǡ
r
r r ȋȌ
ǤͶ
(FRQRPHWULFDQDO\VLV
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
r
ǡ ǤǤ
ȋr
ȌǤ
Ͳ
ͳ ǡ
ǣ
𝑦 ൌ 𝛼𝑤 𝑿𝜷 𝑢 Ǥ ȋ͵ǤͳȌ
Ƚ
𝑢 𝑣 ؠെ 𝐿ሺ𝑣 ȁ𝑿ǡ 𝒁ሻ 𝐿 ሺ𝑣 ȁ𝑿ǡ 𝒁ሻ
r
𝑣
r 𝑿
r 𝒁Ǥ 𝑤
𝑢 ǡ
Ǥ ǡ ʹ
r ǡ
r
Ǥ
Ͷ
Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
Ͷͺ ȋʹͲͲʹǡ Ǥ ʹͳǦʹͷȌǤ
ϴϭ
r
Ǥ ȋȌ r
Ǥ
ǡ ȋʹͲͲʹȌ Ǧ
ǡ
ǡ
3 Z _ ; = *; = ʌ
Ǥ ǡ *Ö L ǡ
r
r ǡ
ǡ
ͳǤ
ǡ
r
ǡ ǤǤ
r
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
Ǥ r ǡ ǡ ȋǤǤ 𝑤 ൌ ͳȌǡ
ǡ ȋǤǤ 𝑤 ൌ ͳǡ 𝑙 𝑡ȌǤ
r
Ǥ
*; = ʌ
I W
Ǥ ǡ KW 6 W ǡ r
ǣ I W G) W
GW
G 3UGW7 W Ǣ r
*Ö L
Ͷͻ
ǡ ǤǤ
ǡ
k
Ǥ
ϴϮ
͵ǤʹǤ
ȋ͵ǤͳȌ
r
r ȋ𝑈𝐹Ȍ
Ǥ
r
ȋ𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡Ȍ
ȋ𝑊݄𝑜𝑙𝑒𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒ȌǤ
r ȋ𝐴𝑔𝑒Ȍǡ
ȋ𝐴𝑔𝑒 ȌǤ ȋ͵ǤͳȌ ǣ
𝑖
ǡ 𝑗 ǡ 𝑡 ǡ 𝜼 r
ǡ 𝝀
r
Ǥ ȋ͵Ǥ͵Ȍ
Ǥ
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
ȋ͵ǤʹȌ
r Ǥ
ȋ ǡ ͳͻͻͺǢ ǡ ʹͲͲ͵ȌǤ
r
Ǥ r
ǡ r
Ǥ r ȋͳͻͻͺȌ
Ǥ
Ǥ ȋʹͲͲ͵Ȍ
Ǥ
r
Ǥ
ȋʹͲͲȌǡ ȋ𝑆݄𝐼𝑛𝑑Ȍǡ
ȋ𝑆݄𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜Ȍ
ȋ𝑅𝑒𝑝Ȍ r 𝑊݄𝑜𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑒 Ǥ
ȋʹͲͲͷȌ
ȋ𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑃Ȍ
r
Ǥ ǡ ȋͳͻͻͺȌ
ȋʹͲͲ͵Ȍ
ȋ𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝐺𝑎𝑝Ȍ r
ȋ𝑆݄𝐼𝑃𝑃Ȍ
Ǥ
ϴϯ
ǡ
ȋ͵ǤʹȌ
Ǥ
r
ȋ ȋ͵ǤʹȌȌǤ
ǡ
r
ȋ𝑆݄𝑁𝑢𝑐Ȍ
Ǥ
r 𝑡 𝑡;Ǥ
r
r
ǦǤ
Ǧ
Ȁr
Ǥ 𝐴𝑔𝑒 𝐴𝑔𝑒;
ȋ͵Ǥ͵ȌǤ
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
'DWD
r r
ǡ
ͳͻͻͶ ʹͲͳͳ ȋ Ǧ
ͳͻͻͶ r
ͳͻͲ
ϴϰ
ǤʹǤȌǤ
ǡ
Ǧ
Ǥ
Ǥ
ǯ
ǡ ͳͻͲ ʹͲͳͳ
r ͳͻͻͶǦʹͲͳͳ ǡ ͳǡͺͷͳ Ǥ
ͳͻͻͲ ʹͲͳʹǡ
ʹǡʹ ǡ r Ǥ
r
r
Ǥ
ǡ r
ǡ
ȋ
Ȍǡ
ǡ r ͷͲǤ r
ȋʹͲͳʹȌ
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
ȋʹͲͳ͵Ȍǡ
ͷͳǤ ǡ
ȋ
r ǡ
Ȍ
Ǥ
r
ͳͻͻͲǡ
r ͳͻͻͶǦ ʹͲͳͳ
Ǥ
͵Ǥʹ
Ǥ
͵Ǥ͵
Ǥ ǡ
𝑈𝐹 ͳͲͲǡ
Ǥ
ʹͲ
Ǥ
r
r
Ǥ
r ͳǡ
r
Ǥ
𝑆݄𝑁𝑢𝑐 ͲǤ
r r Ǥ
r
ȋ͵ǤͶȌ
Ǥ
ͷͲ ͵Ǥ
Ǥ
ͷͳ
Ǧ
Ǥ
͵Ǥ
ϴϱ
͵Ǥʹǣ
Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ
𝑈𝐹
ͳǡͺͷͳ ͳʹǤ͵ͻ ͳͷǤͳ͵ʹ Ͳ ͳͲͲ
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡
ʹǡ͵ͻ ͲǤʹͲͶ ͲǤͶͲ͵ Ͳ ͳ
𝑊݄𝑜𝑙𝑒𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒
ʹǡ͵ͻ ͲǤ͵ͻͺ ͲǤͶͺͻ Ͳ ͳ
𝐴𝑔𝑒
ͳǡͺͷͳ ʹ͵Ǥ͵͵ ͺǤʹͻͻ ͳ Ͷ͵
𝐼𝑛𝑑𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠 ʹǡʹ ʹͳǤͲ ǤͲ ͶǤͻͶ ͶͺǤʹͷͲ
𝑆݄𝑁𝑢𝑐 ʹǡʹ ͳǤʹͺ ͺǤ͵ͻͻ Ͳ Ͳ
𝑆݄𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 ʹǡʹ ʹǤͳ ͶǤͻͷ Ͳ ͻǤͷͻ
𝑆݄𝐼𝑃𝑃 ʹǡʹ ʹʹǤͺͺʹ ͵ͳǤͶͲ͵ Ͳ ͻͷǤͳͺͶ
𝑅𝑒𝑝 ʹǡʹ ͲǤʹͻͻ ͲǤͶͷͺ Ͳ ͳ
𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝐺𝑎𝑝 ʹǡʹ ͲǤͲͶͺ ͲǤͳͺͷ Ͳ ʹǤͳͶ
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
5HVXOWV
ǡ
ȋ͵ǤͶȌ *Ö L ͷʹǤ
r ǡ
*Ö L' r r ǯ
ȋ
ȋ͵ǤͶȌȌ
ȋ *Ö LH[FO
*Ö LLQFO
ȌǤ r ͵Ǥ͵
Ǥ
r r
ȋ
ͳ
Ȍǡ
r Ǥ
ǡ ǡ
ͷʹ
Ǥ
ϴϲ
Ǧ Ǥ
Ǧ ǡ
͵ǤͳǤ ǡ
r r
r
Ǥ
ǡ
Ǥ
r ȋ͵Ǥ͵Ȍ ͵Ǥ͵ ͵ǤͶ
Ǥ ͵Ǥ͵ r
r
Ǥ ͵ǤͶ
r ǡ
ǡ
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
r
ȋ͵Ǥ͵Ȍ
Ǧ
Ǥ r
r
͵Ǥ͵ ͵ǤͶǡ
ȋ
ǦȌ
ȋ ;ǡ
ͷ͵ȌǤ
r
ǣ ȋȌ
r
r
ǯ
Ǣ ȋȌ
ǡ
r
r r
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
r
ǡ r r ǡ
ǡ
r
Ǣ ȋȌǡ
r ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
͵ǤͶ
r
ǯ
Ǥ
ȋ ȋȌǡ
ȋͺȌ ȋͻȌȌ ȋ ȋͳͲȌǡ ȋͳͳȌǡ ȋͳʹȌȌǤ
ǡ
ͷ͵ Ǧ
k ǯ ȋʹͲͲͷ)
Ǥ
Ǽ ʹǽ
Ǥ
ϴϳ
r
ǯ ǡ 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡 ǡ
ǡ 𝑊݄𝑜𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑒 ǡ
Ǥ ȋͳͲȌǡ r ǡ
ͳͶΨǤ
r r
Ǥ
r
ǯ
ȋ
r
ǯ Ȍ
ǡ ǡ
Ǥ ǡ
r
ǡ
r
ͷͶǤ ǡ
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
Ǥ
r ǡ
ǡ
ǡ r
ȋ Ȍ
ǡ
r ͷͷǤ
͵ǤͶ
͵Ǥ͵
ȋ ȋͳȌǡ ȋʹȌ ȋ͵ȌȌǡ r
ȋ͵ǤͶȌ
ȋ ȋͶȌǡ ȋͷȌ
ȋȌȌǤ
ǡ ȋʹȌ ȋ͵Ȍ
Ǧ
ȋͳȌǡ r 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡
Ǧ͵Ǥʹ ǦǤ͵Ǥ
ǡ
ǯ ȋʹͲͳʹȌ
ǡ
r ͳǤͷ ʹ
ǡ
ȋ ͵ǤͶȌǡ
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡 ǦͳͲǤ͵ ǦͳͶǤͺǤ
ͷͶ
Ǥ ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ͷͷ ǡ
Ǥ ǡ ȋ
͵ǤͳȌǡ Ǥ
ϴϴ
Ǧ
ǡ
ȋ͵ǤͶȌ
Ǥ r
ǡ ȋͶȌ ͵Ǥ͵
ȋʹͲͲȌǡ
𝑅𝑒𝑝 ǡ 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑆݄𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 r
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑊݄𝑜𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑒 Ǥ
ǡ r
ǡ ;
ͲǤͲͲͳ ʹͷΨǤ
r
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡 ǡ ǡ
Ǧ
͵ǤͶǤ ȋȌǡ
ȋ𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝐺𝑎𝑝 Ȍ
ȋ𝑆݄𝐼𝑃𝑃 Ȍǡ 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒
Ǥ ǡ
r
r
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
r ȋǤǤ
ʹͷΨȌǤ
ǡ
ǡ
r ǡ r Ǥ r
ǡ
ȋȌ ȋͳͲȌ
;
r 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡
ͲǤͲ ͲǤʹǡ
ʹͶǤͳ
ͳͳǤ ǡ ǡ
ʹͲΨ ͳͲΨǤ
ǯ
r
r 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡
ͶǤʹ ʹǤʹǤ
ϴϵ
͵Ǥ͵ǣ f ȋ͵ǤͶȌ
Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ
ȋͳȌ ȋʹȌ ȋ͵Ȍ ȋͶȌ ȋͷȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋͺȌ
ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ
ͲǤͻͻ ͲǤͻͺͳ ͳǤͲ ͳǤͲͳͳ ǦͲǤͲʹ͵ȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͲͳȗȗ ͲǤͲ͵ͻȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͲͳͺȗȗ
𝐼𝑛𝑑𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
Ǧ ͳͳͶǤͳͳ ͳͻ͵Ǥͻͺʹ ͳʹʹǤͺͺ ͳͻǤ͵ͺ ǦʹͶʹǤͶ͵ ǦͲǤͲʹͳ ǦͳͻͲǤͷͻ͵ ǦͲʹǤͺͷͻ
Ǥ
͵ͳ ͳͲ͵ ͵ͳ ͳͲ͵
Ǥ ʹͷ Ͷͺ ʹͷ Ͷͺ
Ǥ Ǥ ͵ͺͶ ͳʹͲ ͵ͷ͵ ͳͳͺ ͷͳ ʹͳͷ ʹͲ ʹͲͷͷ
: ȗ δ ͲǤͳͲǡ ȗȗ δ ͲǤͲͷǡ ȗȗȗ δ ͲǤͲͳǤ
ȋ Ǥ ǤȌ ȋ Ǥ ǤȌǤ 𝐴𝑔𝑒 𝐴𝑔𝑒
Ǥ
ϵϬ
͵ǤͶǣ f ȋ͵Ǥ͵Ȍ
Ǧ
ȋͳȌ ȋʹȌ ȋ͵Ȍ ȋͶȌ ȋͷȌ ȋȌ
ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ
Ǧ͵ǤʹͲͶȗȗȗ ǦǤ͵ͳȗȗȗ ǦǤ͵ʹͻȗȗȗ ͳʹǤͶͺ ͳǤͻͺʹ ǦͻǤ͵ͺͲȗȗȗ
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡
ȋͲǤͷʹȌ ȋͳǤͷͷʹȌ ȋͳǤͷͳȌ ȋʹǤͷͻͳȌ ȋͳͶǤͲͻͻȌ ȋ͵ǤͲͻͶȌ
ͳǤͷͶȗȗ ʹǤͶͷͲȗ ʹǤ͵Ͷȗ ǦͶʹǤ͵Ͳͳ Ǧʹ͵ǤͲͷ ǦʹǤͳ͵
𝑊݄𝑜𝑙𝑒𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒
ȋͲǤͲȌ ȋͳǤ͵ͺͲȌ ȋͳǤ͵ͶȌ ȋͶǤͷͺͳȌ ȋʹͳǤͶ͵Ȍ ȋͷǤ͵ͺͷȌ
pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
𝑅𝑒𝑝
𝐼𝑛𝑑𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠
𝑅𝑒𝑝
𝑅𝑒𝑝 𝑆݄𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜
𝐼𝑛𝑑𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠
𝐼𝑛𝑑𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑆݄𝑁𝑢𝑐
𝑆݄𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜
𝑆݄𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑃
𝑆݄𝑁𝑢𝑐
𝐼𝑚𝑝𝐺𝑎𝑝
𝑆݄𝐼𝑃𝑃
εʹͷΨ εʹͷΨ εʹͷΨ
Ǥ Ǧ ͲǤͷͻ͵ ͲǤͶͷ ͲǤʹͻ
ʹǤ
ͲǤͲͲ͵ ͲǤͲͲͺ ͲǤͳͲͺ
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑡
ʹǤ
ͲǤͲͲͳ ͲǤͲͲͶ ͲǤͲ͵
𝐷𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑔
Ǥ 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡 ʹͷǤʹͺͷ ʹͲǤʹͶʹ ʹǤͻ
Ǥ 𝐷𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑔 ͺǤͶͷ͵ Ǥʹͷ ͺǤʹ
ʹ ͲǤͶͶͳ ͲǤͳͶ ͲǤͶ͵ ͲǤ͵Ͷͳ ͲǤͳͻͷ ͲǤͶʹ
Ǥ Ǥ ͳͺͷͳ ͳͺ͵ͳ ͳͺͷͳ ͳͺͷͳ ͳͺͷͳ ͳͺͷͳ
: ȗ δ ͲǤͳͲǡ ȗȗ δ ͲǤͲͷǡ ȗȗȗ δ ͲǤͲͳǤ 𝑈𝐹
Ǥ
h h α ʹǤ
ϵϭ
͵Ǥͷǣ f ȋ͵Ǥ͵Ȍ Ǧ Ǧ
Ǧ Ǧ
ȋȌ ȋͺȌ ȋͻȌ ȋͳͲȌ ȋͳͳȌ ȋͳʹȌ
ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ
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pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
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pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
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ͶǤǣ
ȋͶǤͷȌ ȋͶǤȌ
ͷ
ȋͲǤͲͲȌ ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
𝐼𝑛𝑣Ǥ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑞𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑜 ǦͲǤͲͻ ǦͲǤͲͲ͵ͺ
ȋͲǤͲͺͲͲȌ ȋͲǤͲ͵ʹͻȌ
𝐼𝑛𝑣Ǥ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑛𝑜𝑎𝑟𝑞𝑚𝑜 ǦͲǤͳͷͲȗ ǦͲǤͲͳͺ
ȋͲǤͲͻȌ ȋͲǤͲ͵ʹͻȌ
𝐼𝑛𝑣Ǥ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑛𝑜𝑎𝑟𝑞𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑜 ͲǤͳͺͳ ǦͲǤ͵͵ȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤʹͶͷȌ ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
𝑙𝑛Ǥ 𝐾𝑛𝑜𝑤 ͳǤʹͻͳȗȗ
ȋͲǤͷͻͺȌ
𝑙𝑛Ǥ 𝐶𝑎𝑝 ǦͲǤͺ͵ͻȗȗȗ ͲǤͳͳȗȗ ǦͲǤͲͻȗȗȗ ͲǤͳͶȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤʹʹͳȌ ȋͲǤͲͷͲͷȌ ȋͲǤͳͺʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͳͳȌ
𝑙𝑛Ǥ 𝑁𝑃𝑃Ǥ 𝑈𝐶 ͲǤͶͻͺȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͲͳȗȗ ͲǤ͵ͳͺȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͲͶͲͷ
ȋͲǤͳͺʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͶ͵ʹȌ ȋͲǤͳͲͷȌ ȋͲǤͲͶͲ͵Ȍ
𝐴𝑟𝑞Ǥ 𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 ǦͲǤʹͷͷȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͲͲͺͷʹ ǦͲǤʹͻʹȗȗȗ ͲǤͲʹͶͷ
ȋͲǤͲͻͷȌ ȋͲǤͲʹͷȌ ȋͲǤͲͺͲȌ ȋͲǤͲ͵Ͷ͵Ȍ
𝑙𝑛Ǥ 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ǦͳǤʹͲʹȗȗȗ ǦͳǤͶȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͳͲͺȌ ȋͲǤͳʹͷȌ
𝑙𝑛Ǥ 𝐿𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 ʹǤʹͲȗȗȗ ͳǤͳ͵͵ȗ
ȋͲǤͺʹͲȌ ȋͲǤͺȌ
𝐿𝑛Ǥ 𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 ͲǤ͵ͻʹ ͲǤͲͲ͵͵
ȋͲǤͷ͵ͺȌ ȋͲǤ͵ͷͻȌ
𝐿𝑛Ǥ 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟 ǦʹǤͲʹͲ ǦͲǤͳͲ
ȋͳǤ͵ͷȌ ȋͲǤͺͲͺȌ
𝑇𝑀𝐼Ǥ 𝑈𝑆 ǦͲǤͲͷͷͺ ͲǤʹͻʹȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͷ ͲǤ͵ͲͲȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͳͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͶͳ͵Ȍ ȋͲǤͳȌ ȋͲǤͲͶͻͶȌ
𝑇𝑀𝐼Ǥ 𝐹𝑅 ǦͲǤͲͲͳͻ ǦͲǤͲͷ͵ͷ ǦͲǤͳͺͶ ǦͲǤͲͲͶ͵
ȋͲǤʹͷʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͳͳȌ ȋͲǤʹʹ͵Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͺͻͻȌ
𝐶݄𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑜 ǦͲǤͳͲ ͲǤͲͷ͵ͺȗ ǦͲǤͲͷͳ ͲǤͲͷ͵ͺ
ȋͲǤͳͶͲȌ ȋͲǤͲ͵ͲͲȌ ȋͲǤͳʹʹȌ ȋͲǤͲ͵ʹȌ
𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 ǤͺͶͳȗ ǦʹǤʹʹͲȗȗȗ Ǧ͵Ǥ Ǧ͵ǤͲͷȗȗȗ
ȋͶǤͷͻȌ ȋͲǤͶʹͺȌ ȋͷǤʹȌ ȋͲǤͷͲȌ
Ϊ
;
Ϊ ;
Ǥ ͳʹͺ ͳʹͺ ͳʹͺ ͳʹͺ
Ǥ ; ͲǤͺʹ͵ ͲǤͻͲ ͲǤͺ͵ ͲǤͻͶͲ
ǣ
Ǥ ȗȗȗ δͲǤͲͳǡ ȗȗ δͲǤͲͷǡ ȗ δͲǤͳ
ϭϱϱ
ͶǤǣ
Ǧ
ȋ͵Ȍ ȋͶȌ
̴ ̴
ȋͲǤͲͶͳ͵Ȍ
𝐼𝑛𝑣Ǥ 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑞𝑚𝑜 ͲǤͲͷͳͶ
ȋͲǤͳͳͳȌ
𝐼𝑛𝑣Ǥ 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑞𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑜 ͲǤͲͲ͵Ͳ
ȋͲǤͲ͵ʹ͵Ȍ
𝐼𝑛𝑣Ǥ 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑛𝑜𝑎𝑟𝑞𝑚𝑜 ͲǤͲͲͻͶͺ
ȋͲǤͲͶͺͲȌ
𝐼𝑛𝑣Ǥ 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑛𝑜𝑎𝑟𝑞𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑜 ǦͲǤʹ͵ͺ
ȋͲǤͳ͵Ȍ
𝑙𝑛̴𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ǦͳǤͲͳȗȗȗ ǦʹͳǤʹͶȗȗȗ
ȋ͵ǤͺͷȌ ȋ͵Ǥ͵ͺȌ
𝑇𝑀𝐼Ǥ 𝐴𝑏𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑑 ͲǤͳʹȗ ͲǤͳʹͶȗ
ȋͲǤͲͷȌ ȋͲǤͲͻͳȌ
𝑇𝑀𝐼Ǥ 𝑈𝑆 ͲǤͶ͵ʹȗȗȗ ͲǤͶͶͺȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲͲͲȌ ȋͲǤͲʹȌ
𝐶݄𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑜 ͲǤʹͳͶȗȗȗ ͲǤʹͳͶȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͲʹͻ͵Ȍ ȋͲǤͲʹͺȌ
𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 ʹǤͳͳͳȗȗȗ ʹǤͷͶʹȗȗȗ
ȋͲǤͶͷͲȌ ȋͲǤͷȌ
Ǥ ʹͺ ʹͺ
Ǥ ; ͲǤͺ ͲǤͺʹ
ǣ
Ǥ
ȗȗȗ δͲǤͲͳǡ ȗȗ δͲǤͲͷǡ ȗ δͲǤͳ
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Ƭ ȋǦȌ
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Ǧ
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pastel-00875147, version 1 - 21 Oct 2013
Ͷ ͺ
̵Ͷ ͳʹ
ȋʹǦȌ ͵
ȋ͵ǦȌ ͺ
ȋ͵ǦȌ Ͷ
ȋͶǦȌ ʹͳ
ȋͶǦȌ ͳ
ȋͶǦȌ ͻ
ͳͷ
ϭϱϳ
L’Economie de l’Energie Nucléaire: Quatre Essais sur le Rôle de
l’Innovation et de l’Organisation Industrielle
RESUME: Cette thèse étudie le rôle de l’innovation et des structures industrielles dans
l’industrie nucléaire. L’analyse de l’innovation est basée sur l’utilisation de données de brevets
comme mesure de l’effort d’innovation. Nous étudions d’une part les déterminants de
l’innovation et, d’autre part, son impact sur la performance économique et de sureté des
réacteurs nucléaires existants et sur les coûts de construction. Nous montrons que la régulation
de sureté nucléaire peut promouvoir l’innovation et permet d’améliorer la performance de
sureté, mais dans le même temps contribue à l’augmentation des coûts de construction.
L’analyse du rôle des structures industrielles permet d’étudier l’effet des opportunités d’effets
d’apprentissage, à la fois pour la construction et l’exploitation des réacteurs, ainsi que l’effet de
la libéralisation des marchés de l’électricité sur la performance d’exploitation. En particulier,
nous montrons que la séparation entre les activités de production et de distribution d’électricité
induit une importante amélioration de la disponibilité des réacteurs nucléaires.
The Economics of Nuclear Power: Four Essays on the Role of Innovation and
Industrial Organization
ABSTRACT: This thesis studies the role of innovation and industrial structures in the nuclear
power sector. The analysis of innovation is based on the use of patent data as a measure of
innovation effort. On the one hand, we study the determinants of innovation and, on the other
hand, its impact on operating and safety performance of existing nuclear reactors and on
construction costs. We show that nuclear safety regulation can induce innovation and improve
safety performance, but at the same time contributes to increases in construction costs. The
analysis of the role of industrial structures allows us to study the impact of learning by doing
opportunities both for construction and operation of reactors, as well as the effect of electricity
market liberalization on operating performance. In particular, we show that the divestiture of
electricity production and distribution activities induces a substantial improvement in the
availability of nuclear reactors.