Año Población Media Móvil k=3

Media Móvil k=5 Pronóstico INEC

1960 4543666 #N/A #N/A
1961 4674172 #N/A #N/A
1962 4809201 4,675,680 #N/A 133,521
1963 4948986 4,810,786 #N/A 138,200
1964 5093854 4,950,680 4,813,976 143,174
20000000
1965 5243977 5,095,606 4,954,038 148,371
1966 5399422 5,245,751 5,099,088 153,671
18000000
1967 5560012 5,401,137 5,249,250 158,875
1968 5725459 5,561,631 5,404,545 163,828 16000000
1969 5895367 5,726,946 5,564,847 168,421
1970 6069376 5,896,734 5,729,927 172,642 14000000
1971 6247418 6,070,720 5,899,526 176,698
1972 6429379 6,248,724 6,073,400 180,655 12000000
1973 6614843 6,430,547 6,251,277 184,296
10000000
1974 6803280 6,615,834 6,432,859 187,446
1975 6994334 6,804,152 6,617,851 190,182
8000000
1976 7187787 6,995,134 6,805,925 192,653
1977 7383724 7,188,615 6,996,794 195,109 6000000
1978 7582353 7,384,621 7,190,296 197,732
1979 7784072 7,583,383 7,386,454 200,689 4000000
1980 8030000 7,798,808 7,593,587 231,192
1981 8261000 8,025,024 7,808,230 235,976
2000000
1982 8495000 8,262,000 8,030,485 233,000
0
1983 8733000 8,496,333 8,260,614 236,667

1963
1966
1969
1960

1972
1975
1978
1984 8971000 8,733,000 8,498,000 238,000
1985 9211000 8,971,667 8,734,200 239,333
1986 9451000 9,211,000 8,972,200 240,000
1987 9691000 9,451,000 9,211,400 240,000
1988 9944000 9,695,333 9,453,600 248,667
1989 10189000 9,941,333 9,697,200 247,667
1990 10430000 10,187,667 9,941,000 242,333
1991 10671000 10,430,000 10,185,000 241,000
1992 10912000 10,671,000 10,429,200 241,000
1993 11150000 10,911,000 10,670,400 239,000
1994 11380000 11,147,333 10,908,600 232,667
1995 11598000 11,376,000 11,142,200 222,000
1996 11798000 11,592,000 11,367,600 206,000
1997 11987000 11,794,333 11,582,600 192,667
1998 12168000 11,984,333 11,786,200 183,667
1999 12347000 12,167,333 11,979,600 179,667
2000 12531000 12,348,667 12,166,200 182,333
2001 12815000 12,564,333 12,369,600 250,667
2002 13094000 12,813,333 12,591,000 280,667
2003 13320000 13,076,333 12,821,400 243,667
2004 13552000 13,322,000 13,062,400 230,000
2005 13721000 13,531,000 13,300,400 190,000
2006 13965000 13,746,000 13,530,400 219,000
2007 14215000 13,967,000 13,754,600 248,000
2008 14473000 14,217,667 13,985,200 255,333
2009 14738000 14,475,333 14,222,400 262,667
2010 15012000 14,741,000 14,480,600 271,000
2011 15266000 15,005,333 14,740,800 260,667
2012 15521000 15,266,333 15,002,000 254,667
2013 15775000 15,520,667 15,262,400 254,333
2014 16027000 15,774,333 15,520,200 252,667
2015 16279000 16,027,000 15,773,600 252,000
2016 16529000 16,278,333 16,026,200 250,667
2017 16777000 16,528,333 16,277,400 248,667
2018 17084357 16,796,786 16,539,271 287,571 17,084,357
2019 16796785.6667 16,886,048 16,693,229 -89,262 17,267,986
2020 16886047.5556 16,922,397 16,814,638 -36,349 17,510,643
MAE k=3 211471.961707
 Pronóstico Población de Ecuador
Media móvil
00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00
Real Pronóstico INEC
00

0
1963
1966
1969

1984
1987
1990

1999

2005
2008
2011

2017
2020
1960

1972
1975
1978
1981

1993
1996

2002

2014

Años
Escala de tiempo Valores Previsión Límite de confianza inferior
1960 4543666
1961 4674172
1962 4809201
1963 4948986
1964 5093854
1965 5243977
1966 5399422
1967 5560012
1968 5725459
1969 5895367
1970 6069376
1971 6247418
1972 6429379
1973 6614843
1974 6803280
1975 6994334
1976 7187787
1977 7383724
1978 7582353
1979 7784072
1980 8030000
1981 8261000
1982 8495000
1983 8733000
1984 8971000
1985 9211000
1986 9451000
1987 9691000
1988 9944000
1989 10189000
1990 10430000
1991 10671000
1992 10912000
1993 11150000
1994 11380000
1995 11598000
1996 11798000
1997 11987000
1998 12168000
1999 12347000
2000 12531000
2001 12815000
2002 13094000
2003 13320000
2004 13552000
2005 13721000
2006 13965000
2007 14215000
2008 14473000
2009 14738000
2010 15012000
2011 15266000
2012 15521000
2013 15775000
2014 16027000
2015 16279000
2016 16529000
2017 16777000
2018 17084357 17084357 17084357.00
2019 #NAME? #NAME?
2020 #NAME? #NAME?
2021 #NAME? #NAME?
2022 #NAME? #NAME?
2023 #NAME? #NAME?
2024 #NAME? #NAME?
2025 #NAME? #NAME?
2026 #NAME? #NAME?
2027 #NAME? #NAME?
2028 #NAME? #NAME?
2029 #NAME? #NAME?
2030 #NAME? #NAME?
2031 #NAME? #NAME?
2032 #NAME? #NAME?
2033 #NAME? #NAME?
2034 #NAME? #NAME?
2035 #NAME? #NAME?
2036 #NAME? #NAME?
2037 #NAME? #NAME?
2038 #NAME? #NAME?
2039 #NAME? #NAME?
2040 #NAME? #NAME?
Límite de confianza superior Estadística Valor
Alpha 0.25
Beta 0.25
Gamma 0.00
MASE 0.13
SMAPE 0.00
MAE 27,547
RMSE 31,028

18000000

16000000

14000000

12000000

10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
1960

1966

1970

1976

1986

1996
1998
1962
1964

1968

1972
1974

1978
1980
1982
1984

1988
1990
1992
1994

2000
2002
Valores Previsión Límite de confianza inferio 2004
17084357.00
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004

Límite de confianza inferior

2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024

Límite de confianza superior

2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
Año Población Valor Pronosticado
1960 4543666
1961 4674172
1962 4809201
1963 4948986
1964 5093854
1965 5243977
1966 5399422
1967 5560012
1968 5725459
1969 5895367
1970 6069376
1971 6247418
1972 6429379
1973 6614843
1974 6803280
1975 6994334
1976 7187787
1977 7383724
1978 7582353
1979 7784072
1980 8030000
1981 8261000
1982 8495000
1983 8733000
1984 8971000
1985 9211000
1986 9451000
1987 9691000
1988 9944000
1989 10189000
1990 10430000
1991 10671000
1992 10912000
1993 11150000
1994 11380000
1995 11598000
1996 11798000
1997 11987000
1998 12168000
1999 12347000
2000 12531000
2001 12815000
2002 13094000
2003 13320000

2004 13552000
2005 13721000
2006 13965000
2007 14215000
2008 14473000
2009 14738000
2010 15012000
2011 15266000
2012 15521000
2013 15775000
2014 16027000
2015 16279000
2016 16529000
2017 16777000
2018 17084357 17084357
2019 16897468
2020 #NAME?
2021 #NAME?
2022 #NAME?
2023 #NAME?
2024 #NAME?
2025 #NAME?
2026 #NAME?
2027 #NAME?
2028 #NAME?
2029 #NAME?
2030 #NAME?
2031 #NAME?
2032 #NAME?
2033 #NAME?
2034 #NAME?
2035 #NAME?
2036 #NAME?
2037 #NAME?
2038 #NAME?
 Pronóstico - Regresión Lineal
18000000

16000000

14000000

12000000

10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
96
0 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32
1 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.99829847
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.99659983
R^2 ajustado 0.99654017
Error típico 222,895
Observaciones 59

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Regresión 1 8.30033E+14 8.3003E+14 16706.84790605
Residuos 57 2.83189E+12 4.9682E+10
Total 58 8.32865E+14

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción -427794234 3389425.93 -126.21436 1.81080294E-71
Variable X 1 220253.443 1704.02298 129.254972 4.6837641E-72

Análisis de los residuales

 Pronóstico Residuos
Observación Residuos RME
para Y estándares
1 3902515.21 641150.7898 2.90159169 411074335300
2 4122768.65 551403.3465 2.4954307 304045650492
3 4343022.1 466178.9031 2.10973901 217322769693
4 4563275.54 385710.4597 1.74557106 148772558746
5 4783528.98 310325.0164 1.40440674 96301615781.75
6 5003782.43 240194.573 1.08702444 57693432897.8
7 5224035.87 175386.1296 0.79372738 30760294467.23
8 5444289.31 115722.6863 0.52371453 13391740116.47
9 5664542.76 60916.2429 0.27568252 3710788648.916
10 5884796.2 10570.79953 0.0478392 111741802.7545
11 6105049.64 -35673.64383 -0.1614446 1272608864.395
12 6325303.09 -77885.0872 -0.3524767 6066086808.224
13 6545556.53 -116177.5306 -0.525773 13497218608.63
14 6765809.97 -150966.9739 -0.6832161 22791027218.61
15 6986063.42 -182783.4173 -0.8272045 33409777639.8
16 7206316.86 -211982.8607 -0.9593495 44936733216.26
17 7426570.3 -238783.304 -1.0806376 57017466284.79
18 7646823.75 -263099.7474 -1.1906841 69221477081.53
19 7867077.19 -284724.1908 -1.2885477 81067864807.14
20 8087330.63 -303258.6341 -1.3724271 91965799175.66
21 8307584.08 -277584.0775 -1.2562344 77052920080.72
22 8527837.52 -266837.5209 -1.2075997 71202262541.36
23 8748090.96 -253090.9642 -1.1453883 64055036175.6
24 8968344.41 -235344.4076 -1.0650745 55386990187.61
25 9188597.85 -217597.851 -0.9847607 47348824744.31
26 9408851.29 -197851.2943 -0.8953957 39145134668.36
27 9629104.74 -178104.7377 -0.8060307 31721297590.2
28 9849358.18 -158358.1811 -0.7166657 25077313509.81
29 10069611.6 -125611.6244 -0.5684679 15778280192
30 10289865.1 -100865.0678 -0.4564749 10173761901.61
31 10510118.5 -80118.51116 -0.3625843 6418975830.985
32 10730372 -59371.95453 -0.2686937 3525028984.656
33 10950625.4 -38625.3979 -0.1748031 1491921362.624
34 11170878.8 -20878.84126 -0.0944893 435926012.4605
35 11391132.3 -11132.28463 -0.0503803 123927761.0581
36 11611385.7 -13385.728 -0.0605784 179177713.9651
37 11831639.2 -33639.17136 -0.1522374 1131593849.909
38 12051892.6 -64892.61473 -0.293678 4211051446.264
39 12272146.1 -104146.0581 -0.4713233 10846401416.66
40 12492399.5 -145399.5015 -0.6580199 21141015025.15
41 12712652.9 -181652.9448 -0.8220885 32997792364.55
42 12932906.4 -117906.3882 -0.5335971 13901916376.96
43 13153159.8 -59159.83156 -0.2677337 3499885670.266
44 13373413.3 -53413.27493 -0.2417271 2852977938.423
45 13593666.7 -41666.71829 -0.1885669 1736115413.339
46 13813920.2 -92920.16166 -0.4205194 8634156442.89
47 14034173.6 -69173.60503 -0.313052 4784987632.335
48 14254427 -39427.04839 -0.178431 1554492144.966
49 14474680.5 -1680.491759 -0.0076052 2824052.552675
50 14694933.9 43066.06487 0.19489976 1854685943.762
51 14915187.4 96812.62151 0.43813515 9372683683.229
52 15135440.8 130559.1781 0.59085855 17045698997
53 15355694.3 165305.7348 0.74810755 27325985949.5
54 15575947.7 199052.2914 0.90083095 39621814715
55 15796201.2 230798.848 1.04450315 53268108257.55
56 16016454.6 262545.4047 1.18817535 68930089516.28
57 16236708 292291.9613 1.32279635 85434590646
58 16456961.5 320038.5179 1.44836615 102424652967
59 16677214.9 407142.0746 1.84256197 165764668890
MAE 173,057 MSE 47,998,067,055
 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Valor crítico de F
4.6838E-72

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
-434581442 -421007025 -434581442 -421007025
216841.196 223665.691 216841.196 223665.691

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

 Percentil Y

0.84745763 4543666
2.54237288 4674172
4.23728814 4809201
5.93220339 4948986
7.62711864 5093854
9.3220339 5243977
11.0169492 5399422
12.7118644 5560012
14.4067797 5725459
16.1016949 5895367
17.7966102 6069376
19.4915254 6247418
21.1864407 6429379
22.8813559 6614843
24.5762712 6803280
26.2711864 6994334
27.9661017 7187787
29.6610169 7383724
31.3559322 7582353
33.0508475 7784072
34.7457627 8030000
36.440678 8261000
38.1355932 8495000
39.8305085 8733000
41.5254237 8971000
43.220339 9211000
44.9152542 9451000
46.6101695 9691000
48.3050847 9944000
50 10189000
51.6949153 10430000
53.3898305 10671000
55.0847458 10912000
56.779661 11150000
58.4745763 11380000
60.1694915 11598000
61.8644068 11798000
63.559322 11987000
65.2542373 12168000
66.9491525 12347000
68.6440678 12531000
70.3389831 12815000
72.0338983 13094000
73.7288136 13320000
75.4237288 13552000
77.1186441 13721000
78.8135593 13965000
80.5084746 14215000
82.2033898 14473000
83.8983051 14738000
85.5932203 15012000
87.2881356 15266000
88.9830508 15521000
90.6779661 15775000
92.3728814 16027000
94.0677966 16279000
95.7627119 16529000
97.4576271 16777000
99.1525424 17084357