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Abstract The Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer (PTA) is an Nord du Chili. Dans cette étude, un modèle d’écoulement
important source of groundwater in northern Chile. In this souterrain de cet aquifère est réalisé et calibré pour la
study, a groundwater flow model of this aquifer is période 1983–2004. Celui-ci reproduit le champs
developed and calibrated for the period 1983–2004. The d’écoulement observé et les composantes du bilan d’eau
model reproduces the observed flow-field and the water raisonnablement bien. Cinq scénarios sont définis pour
balance components reasonably well. Five scenarios are évaluer la réponse du système à des conditions de
defined to evaluate the response to different pumping pompage différentes. D’après ces scénarios, les niveaux
situations. These scenarios show that groundwater heads piézomètriques vont continuer à baisser sous l’effet des
will continue to decrease with the present pumping taux de pompage actuels. Pour tenir compte de la
discharge rates. To account for variations in the model variabilité des résultats du modèle due aux incertitudes
results due to uncertainties in average recharge rates, sur les taux de recharge moyens, des épisodes de recharge,
randomly generated recharge realizations with different générés aléatoirement et présentant différents niveaux
levels of uncertainty are simulated. Evaporation flow rates d’incertitude sont simulés. Les taux d’évaporation et l’eau
and groundwater flowing out of the modelled area seem souterraine s’écoulant hors de la zone modélisée semblent
unaffected by the recharge uncertainty, whereas the non affectés par l’incertitude sur la recharge, les termes
storage terms can vary considerably. For the most d’emmagasinement en revanche peuvent varier considéra-
intensive pumping scenario under the generated random blement. Dans le cas du scénario avec le pompage le plus
recharge rates, it is unlikely that the cumulative discharged important et des taux de recharge aléatoires, il est peu
volume from the aquifer, at the end of the simulation probable que le volume cumulé pompé hors de l’aquifère
period, will be larger than 12% of the estimated à la fin de la simulation atteigne une valeur supérieure à
groundwater reserve. Fluctuations in simulated groundwa- 12% de la réserve d’eau souterraine estimée. Les fluctua-
ter heads due to uncertainties in the average recharge tions des niveaux piézomètriques simulés liées aux
values are more noticeable in certain areas. These incertitudes sur les recharges moyennes sont plus percep-
fluctuations could explain unusual behaviour in the tibles dans certaines zones. Ces fluctuations pourraient
observed groundwater heads in these areas. expliquer un comportement inhabituel des niveaux piézo-
mètriques observés dans ces zones.
Résumé L’aquifère de la Pampa del Tamarugal (PTA)
représente une importante source d’eau souterraine dans le Resumen El Acuífero de la Pampa del Tamarugal (PTA)
es una fuente importante de agua subterránea en el norte de
Chile. En este estudio se desarrolla y calibra un modelo de
flujo de agua subterránea para el periodo 1983–2004. El
Received: 25 November 2005 / Accepted: 26 June 2006
Published online: 10 August 2006
modelo reproduce razonablemente bien el campo de flujo
observado y los componentes del balance hídrico. Se
© Springer-Verlag 2006 definen cinco escenarios para evaluar la respuesta a
diferentes situaciones de bombeo. Estos escenarios mues-
R. Rojas ()) : A. Dassargues
tran que con las tasas de descarga de bombeo actuales las
Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology Group, presiones de agua subterránea continuarán en descenso.
Department of Geography-Geology, Para explicar las variaciones en los resultados del modelo
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, debidas a incertidumbres en tasas de recarga promedio se
Celestijnenlaan 200 E, 3001, Leuven (Heverlee), Belgium han simulado realizaciones de recarga generadas aleator-
e-mail: Rodrigo.RojasMujica@geo.kuleuven.be
Tel.: +32-16-326449 iamente con diferentes niveles de incertidumbre. Las tasa
Fax: +32-16-326401 de flujo por evaporación y el agua subterránea que fluye
fuera del área modelizada parecen no haber sido afectadas
A. Dassargues
Hydrogeology, Department of Georesources, por la incertidumbre en recarga mientras que los términos
Geotechnologies and Building Materials, de almacenamiento pueden variar considerablemente. Para
Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium el escenario de bombeo más intenso, bajo las tasas de
Fig. 1 Location of the study area. a General location in Chile, b Pampa del Tamarugal Basin and sub-basins delimitation (shaded area is
the Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer), c Observation wells and vegetation pattern in the study area
Fig. 3 a Geological longitudinal profile (X-X′) of Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer. White dashed lines indicate main faults (adapted from
JICA-DGA-PCI 1995) b W-E geological cross-section (Y-Y′) in the area of Pica (adapted from DGA-CCHEN 1998)
Fig. 5 Groundwater elevation (m asl) map for the PTA in the year
1960 (adapted from JICA-DGA-PCI 1995). The shaded areas
represent forested areas Fig. 6 Estimated artificial groundwater discharge in the study area
pumping discharge as a response to increasing groundwater groundwater flowing out of the modelled area are
demands for drinking water purposes. imperceptible for σ1, σ2 and σ3. Results for the loss of
In the case of the DWP scenario under random groundwater storage under random recharge flow rates for
recharge flow rates, the main results are presented in σ3 and 100 recharge realizations are shown in Fig. 11a. In
Fig. 11. Changes in the evaporation flow rates and
Fig. 9 Observed and simulated groundwater heads in time: a well A8 (north sector), b well 60– 59 (centre-north sector), c well 134
(centre-centre sector), d well 249 (centre-south Sector), e well 276 (south sector)
2004
this figure, the black line represents the scenario DWP
650
695
45
under average recharge flow rates (976 l/s).
Fluctuations of the average and standard deviation of
2003
650
695
45 the loss of groundwater storage for the last year of
simulation (2050) vs. number of realizations, are shown in
Fig. 11b and c, respectively. From these figures, tenden-
2002
650
695
cies are clearly seen for σ1, σ2 and σ3. The loss of
45
650
695
670
670
670
0
Groundwater heads
In the north sector, none of the wells seem to present large
1995
Table 6 Yearly pumping rates for Canchones and El Carmelo well fields (l/s; Adapted from Rojas 2005)
670
670
670
650
650
650
0
650
650
630
630
0
610
580
580
Fig. 10 Annual simulated flow components for scenarios 2005, 2005+20%, 2005–20% and the drinking water projection (DWP):
a evaporation from salares (l/s), b groundwater flow to storage (l/s), and c loss of groundwater storage (l/s)
the north sector of the study area. If the groundwater calibrated parameters contained in realistic ranges that do
recharge coming from these sub-basins changes in not substantially differ from values obtained in past
magnitude, it will be reflected in areas as far as 19 km studies. Also, groundwater balance results are in agree-
from Aroma alluvial fan apex or 15 km from Tarapaca ment with previous estimations made in past studies.
alluvial fan apex. Also, the southern Chacarilla sub-basin The impossibility of estimating pumping discharges at
has minor influence on the groundwater heads located in a time scale less than 1 year without exhaustive fieldwork,
the lower areas of the corresponding alluvial fan. makes it difficult to reproduce short-term fluctuations in
the observed groundwater heads, particularly in those
wells affected by local pumping conditions. However,
the observed overall trend of the groundwater heads and
Discussion and conclusions the observed flow-field are properly reproduced with the
exception of a limited area towards Salar de Pintados.
PTA is a strategic source of groundwater which has been Simulated evaporation flow rates overestimate calcu-
intensively used since the 1960s. The groundwater extrac- lations made in past studies. This can be attributed to two
tion for different uses has a clear effect on the observed main factors: first, the simulated groundwater heads
groundwater heads, especially, in those zones affected by overestimate the observed groundwater heads in the Salar
the Canchones and El Carmelo well fields. In these areas, a de Pintados area and, second, there is uncertainty
more pronounced drawdown is observed compared to other regarding the actual extent to which evaporation from
areas. Although Houston (2002) suggested that these long- the surface of salares takes place. These two points
term drawdowns in groundwater heads may partly result represent the major limitations of the groundwater flow
from long-term climatic fluctuations, it is likely that these model. To alleviate these limitations, it is proposed to
drawdowns are simply due to overexploitation. fully describe this area in a three-dimensional conceptual
This study has developed an up-to-date groundwater model and to define, in a more accurate way, the active
flow model, calibrated for steady-state conditions (1960) surface for the evaporation process.
and transient-state conditions (1983–2004). Different Scenarios show that groundwater heads will continue
groundwater extraction situations are considered and, to decrease with the actual pumping discharge (2005).
more importantly, a sensitivity study on the average This decrease is slightly more severe for an increase of
recharge values is performed. The calibration criteria 20% in the artificial discharge. For the case of the DWP
define an acceptable performance of the model with final scenario, areas located near the Canchones well field are
Fig. 11 Results for scenario DWP+randomly generated recharge: realization for three uncertainty levels (year 2050) and d probability
a annual loss of groundwater storage for σ3 and for 100 recharge distribution for the simulated cumulative loss of groundwater
realizations; b average loss of groundwater storage vs. number of storage for σ3 (year 2050). σ1, σ2 and σ3 are the minimum,
realization for three uncertainty levels (year 2050); c standard average and maximum levels of uncertainty, respectively
deviation of the loss of groundwater storage vs. number of
more drastically affected than areas located near the El ing that part of the present system’s demand is consumed by
Carmelo well field. Although this is strictly related to the the evaporation process. This presents two conflicting
assumptions that defined the respective scenarios, even a courses of action: to reduce the present pumping discharge
reduction in the actual pumping discharges shows this to reduce the demand on the system, knowing that part of
trend of increasing drawdown. It is clear that in the mid this reduced discharge will be lost through evaporation from
and long-term, groundwater users of the PTA will be salares, or to increase the actual pumping discharge to the
facing a worse situation than the present one. point where no groundwater is lost through evaporation.
On the other hand, if pumping discharges are reduced, This analysis is only valid if there is no other source or sink
the evaporation flow rates tend to slightly increase, suggest- present in the modelling system.
For scenario DWP under random recharge values,
evaporation flow rates from salares and SBC groundwater
outflows are invariable to all uncertainty levels in recharge
(σ1, σ2 and σ3). This could be related to: (1) the time span
(45 years) used to evaluate the flow components under
random recharge values, which could suggest that the
simulation period might be too short to observe more
pronounced effects, or (2) since evaporation is strong and
recharge is weak in this area, the insensitivity might also be
due to the evaporation overpowering the recharge effect.
Storage flow components vary according to the level of
uncertainty. The loss of groundwater storage in supplying
the system demand increases when the uncertainty in the
Fig. 12 Simulated groundwater heads for a synthetic observation recharge increases. Despite this, the cumulative loss of
well (P1) in the Aroma creek for σ3=0.35R and for 100 recharge groundwater storage represents less than 12% of the
realizations (the black line represents the average recharge value) assessed groundwater total reserves.