Nama Maulidia kholifatul ulya

Nim B. 131.22.0106

DOUBLE EKSPONENSIAL SMOOTHING

ɑ= 0.1
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop Forecast
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 790.40 783.74 797.06 0.74 783.00
3 Mar 778 789.16 784.28 794.04 0.54 797.80
4 Apr 792 789.44 784.80 794.09 0.52 794.58
5 May 847 795.20 785.84 804.56 1.04 794.61
6 Jun 829 798.58 787.11 810.05 1.27 805.60
7 Jul 972 815.92 789.99 841.85 2.88 811.32
8 Aug 927 827.03 793.70 860.36 3.70 844.73
9 Sep 837 828.03 797.13 858.92 3.43 864.07
10 Okt 914 836.62 801.08 872.17 3.95 862.36
11 Nov 827 835.66 804.54 866.79 3.46 876.12
12 Des 945 846.60 808.74 884.45 4.21 870.24
Forcast m1 888.65
Forcast m2
Forcast m3

ɑ= 0.2
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop Forecast
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 797.80 785.96 809.64 2.96 783.00
3 Mar 778 793.84 787.54 800.14 1.58 812.60
 4 Apr 792 793.47 788.72 798.22 1.19 801.72
5 May 847 804.18 791.81 816.54 3.09 799.41
6 Jun 829 809.14 795.28 823.00 3.47 819.63
7 Jul 972 841.71 804.57 878.86 9.29 826.47
8 Aug 927 858.77 815.41 902.13 10.84 888.15
9 Sep 837 854.42 823.21 885.62 7.80 912.98
10 Okt 914 866.33 831.83 900.83 8.62 893.43
11 Nov 827 858.47 837.16 879.77 5.33 909.46
12 Des 945 875.77 844.88 906.66 7.72 885.10
Forcast m1 914.39
Forcast m2
Forcast m3

ɑ= 0.3
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop Forecast
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 805.20 789.66 820.74 6.66 783.00
3 Mar 778 797.04 791.87 802.21 2.21 827.40
4 Apr 792 795.53 792.97 798.09 1.10 804.42
5 May 847 810.97 798.37 823.57 5.40 799.18
6 Jun 829 816.38 803.77 828.98 5.40 828.97
7 Jul 972 863.07 821.56 904.57 17.79 834.39
8 Aug 927 882.25 839.77 924.73 18.21 922.36
9 Sep 837 868.67 848.44 888.91 8.67 942.93
10 Okt 914 882.27 858.59 905.95 10.15 897.58
11 Nov 827 865.69 860.72 870.66 2.13 916.10
12 Des 945 889.48 869.35 909.62 8.63 872.79
Forcast m1 918.25
Forcast m2
Forcast m3
 ɑ= 0.4
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop Forecast
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 812.60 794.84 830.36 11.84 783.00
3 Mar 778 798.76 796.41 801.11 1.57 842.20
4 Apr 792 796.06 796.27 795.84 -0.14 802.68
5 May 847 816.43 804.33 828.53 8.07 795.70
6 Jun 829 821.46 811.18 831.74 6.85 836.60
7 Jul 972 881.68 839.38 923.97 28.20 838.59
8 Aug 927 899.81 863.55 936.06 24.17 952.17
9 Sep 837 874.68 868.00 881.36 4.45 960.23
10 Okt 914 890.41 876.97 903.85 8.96 885.82
11 Nov 827 865.05 872.20 857.89 -4.77 912.82
12 Des 945 897.03 882.13 911.93 9.93 853.13
Forcast m1 921.86
Forcast m2
Forcast m3

ɑ= 0.5
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop Forecast
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 820.00 801.50 838.50 18.50 783.00
3 Mar 778 799.00 800.25 797.75 -1.25 857.00
4 Apr 792 795.50 797.88 793.13 -2.38 796.50
5 May 847 821.25 809.56 832.94 11.69 790.75
6 Jun 829 825.13 817.34 832.91 7.78 844.63
7 Jul 972 898.56 857.95 939.17 40.61 840.69
8 Aug 927 912.78 885.37 940.20 27.41 979.78
9 Sep 837 874.89 880.13 869.65 -5.24 967.61
10 Okt 914 894.45 887.29 901.60 7.16 864.41
 11 Nov 827 860.72 874.00 847.44 -13.28 908.76
12 Des 945 902.86 888.43 917.29 14.43 834.16
Forcast m1 931.72
Forcast m2
Forcast m3

ɑ= 0.6
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop Forecast
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 827.40 809.64 845.16 26.64 783.00
3 Mar 778 797.76 802.51 793.01 -7.13 871.80
4 Apr 792 794.30 797.59 791.02 -4.92 785.88
5 May 847 825.92 814.59 837.26 17.00 786.10
6 Jun 829 827.77 822.50 833.04 7.91 854.26
7 Jul 972 914.31 877.58 951.03 55.09 840.95
8 Aug 927 921.92 904.19 939.66 26.60 1,006.12
9 Sep 837 870.97 884.26 857.68 -19.93 966.26
10 Okt 914 896.79 891.78 901.80 7.52 837.75
11 Nov 827 854.92 869.66 840.17 -22.12 909.32
12 Des 945 908.97 893.24 924.69 23.58 818.06
Forcast m1 948.27
Forcast m2
Forcast m3

ɑ= 0.7
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop Forecast
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 834.80 819.26 850.34 36.26 783.00
3 Mar 778 795.04 802.31 787.77 -16.95 886.60
4 Apr 792 792.91 795.73 790.09 -6.58 770.82
 5 May 847 830.77 820.26 841.29 24.53 783.52
6 Jun 829 829.53 826.75 832.31 6.49 865.82
7 Jul 972 929.26 898.51 960.01 71.76 838.80
8 Aug 927 927.68 918.93 936.43 20.42 1,031.77
9 Sep 837 864.20 880.62 847.79 -38.31 956.85
10 Okt 914 899.06 893.53 904.59 12.91 809.48
11 Nov 827 848.62 862.09 835.15 -31.44 917.50
12 Des 945 916.09 899.89 932.28 37.80 803.71
Forcast m1 970.08
Forcast m2
Forcast m3

ɑ= 0.8
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop Forecast
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 842.20 830.36 854.04 47.36 783.00
3 Mar 778 790.84 798.74 782.94 -31.62 901.40
4 Apr 792 791.77 793.16 790.37 -5.58 751.32
5 May 847 835.95 827.40 844.51 34.23 784.79
6 Jun 829 830.39 829.79 830.99 2.40 878.74
7 Jul 972 943.68 920.90 966.46 91.11 833.39
8 Aug 927 930.34 928.45 932.22 7.55 1,057.56
9 Sep 837 855.67 870.22 841.11 -58.23 939.77
10 Okt 914 902.33 895.91 908.76 25.69 782.89
11 Nov 827 842.07 852.84 831.30 -43.08 934.44
12 Des 945 924.41 910.10 938.73 57.26 788.22
Forcast m1 995.99
Forcast m2
Forcast m3
 ɑ= 0.9
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop Forecast
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 849.60 842.94 856.26 59.94 783.00
3 Mar 778 785.16 790.94 779.38 -52.00 916.20
4 Apr 792 791.32 791.28 791.35 0.34 727.38
5 May 847 841.43 836.42 846.45 45.14 791.69
6 Jun 829 830.24 830.86 829.63 -5.56 891.58
7 Jul 972 957.82 945.13 970.52 114.27 824.07
8 Aug 927 930.08 931.59 928.58 -13.54 1,084.79
9 Sep 837 846.31 854.84 837.78 -76.75 915.04
10 Okt 914 907.23 901.99 912.47 47.16 761.03
11 Nov 827 835.02 841.72 828.33 -60.27 959.63
12 Des 945 934.00 924.77 943.23 83.05 768.05
Forcast m1 1,026.28
Forcast m2
Forcast m3
ɑ= 0.1

Periode Bulan Penjualan Yt+1 Error Error ABS Error Sqrt % Error Abs

1 Jan 783
2 Feb 857 783.00 74.00 74.00 5,476.00 9%
3 Mar 778 797.80 -19.80 19.80 392.04 3%
4 Apr 792 794.58 -2.58 2.58 6.66 0%
5 May 847 794.61 52.39 52.39 2,745.13 6%
6 Jun 829 805.60 23.40 23.40 547.51 3%
7 Jul 972 811.32 160.68 160.68 25,817.76 17%
8 Aug 927 844.73 82.27 82.27 6,768.21 9%
9 Sep 837 864.07 -27.07 27.07 732.55 3%
10 Okt 914 862.36 51.64 51.64 2,667.09 6%
11 Nov 827 876.12 -49.12 49.12 2,412.56 6%
12 Des 945 870.24 74.76 74.76 5,588.51 8%
SUM 617.70 53,154.02 69%
MAD MSE MAPE
56.15 4,832.18 6%

ɑ= 0.2

Periode Bulan Penjualan Yt+1 Error Error ABS Error Sqrt % Error Abs

1 Jan 783
2 Feb 857 783.00 74.00 74.00 5,476.00 9%
3 Mar 778 812.60 -34.60 34.60 1,197.16 4%
4 Apr 792 801.72 -9.72 9.72 94.48 1%
 5 May 847 799.41 47.59 47.59 2,264.81 6%
6 Jun 829 819.63 9.37 9.37 87.80 1%
7 Jul 972 826.47 145.53 145.53 21,178.98 15%
8 Aug 927 888.15 38.85 38.85 1,509.32 4%
9 Sep 837 912.98 -75.98 75.98 5,772.96 9%
10 Okt 914 893.43 20.57 20.57 423.12 2%
11 Nov 827 909.46 -82.46 82.46 6,799.65 10%
12 Des 945 885.10 59.90 59.90 3,588.01 6%
SUM 598.57 48,392.29 68%
MAD MSE MAPE
54.42 4,399.30 6%

ɑ= 0.3

Periode Bulan Penjualan Yt+1 Error Error ABS Error Sqrt % Error Abs

1 Jan 783
2 Feb 857 783.00 74.00 74.00 5,476.00 9%
3 Mar 778 827.40 -49.40 49.40 2,440.36 6%
4 Apr 792 804.42 -12.42 12.42 154.26 2%
5 May 847 799.18 47.82 47.82 2,286.75 6%
6 Jun 829 828.97 0.03 0.03 0.00 0%
7 Jul 972 834.39 137.61 137.61 18,936.51 14%
8 Aug 927 922.36 4.64 4.64 21.53 1%
9 Sep 837 942.93 -105.93 105.93 11,221.16 13%
10 Okt 914 897.58 16.42 16.42 269.62 2%
11 Nov 827 916.10 -89.10 89.10 7,938.81 11%
12 Des 945 872.79 72.21 72.21 5,214.28 8%
SUM 609.58 53,959.29 70%
MAD MSE MAPE
 55.42 4,905.39 6%

ɑ= 0.4

Periode Bulan Penjualan Yt+1 Error Error ABS Error Sqrt % Error Abs

1 Jan 783
2 Feb 857 783.00 74.00 74.00 5,476.00 9%
3 Mar 778 842.20 -64.20 64.20 4,121.64 8%
4 Apr 792 802.68 -10.68 10.68 114.06 1%
5 May 847 795.70 51.30 51.30 2,631.69 6%
6 Jun 829 836.60 -7.60 7.60 57.76 1%
7 Jul 972 838.59 133.41 133.41 17,798.23 14%
8 Aug 927 952.17 -25.17 25.17 633.53 3%
9 Sep 837 960.23 -123.23 123.23 15,185.63 15%
10 Okt 914 885.82 28.18 28.18 794.11 3%
11 Nov 827 912.82 -85.82 85.82 7,365.07 10%
12 Des 945 853.13 91.87 91.87 8,440.10 10%
SUM 695.46 62,617.82 80%
MAD MSE MAPE
63.22 5,692.53 7%

ɑ= 0.5

Periode Bulan Penjualan Yt+1 Error Error ABS Error Sqrt % Error Abs

1 Jan 783
 2 Feb 857 783.00 74.00 74.00 5,476.00 9%
3 Mar 778 857.00 -79.00 79.00 6,241.00 10%
4 Apr 792 796.50 -4.50 4.50 20.25 1%
5 May 847 790.75 56.25 56.25 3,164.06 7%
6 Jun 829 844.63 -15.63 15.63 244.30 2%
7 Jul 972 840.69 131.31 131.31 17,242.32 14%
8 Aug 927 979.78 -52.78 52.78 2,785.73 6%
9 Sep 837 967.61 -130.61 130.61 17,058.97 16%
10 Okt 914 864.41 49.59 49.59 2,459.17 5%
11 Nov 827 908.76 -81.76 81.76 6,684.70 10%
12 Des 945 834.16 110.84 110.84 12,285.51 12%
SUM 786.27 73,662.00 90%
MAD MSE MAPE
71.48 6,696.55 8%

ɑ= 0.6

Periode Bulan Penjualan Yt+1 Error Error ABS Error Sqrt % Error Abs

1 Jan 783
2 Feb 857 783.00 74.00 74.00 5,476.00 9%
3 Mar 778 871.80 -93.80 93.80 8,798.44 12%
4 Apr 792 785.88 6.12 6.12 37.45 1%
5 May 847 786.10 60.90 60.90 3,708.81 7%
6 Jun 829 854.26 -25.26 25.26 638.07 3%
7 Jul 972 840.95 131.05 131.05 17,174.10 13%
8 Aug 927 1,006.12 -79.12 79.12 6,259.97 9%
9 Sep 837 966.26 -129.26 129.26 16,708.15 15%
10 Okt 914 837.75 76.25 76.25 5,814.06 8%
 11 Nov 827 909.32 -82.32 82.32 6,776.58 10%
12 Des 945 818.06 126.94 126.94 16,113.76 13%
SUM 885.02 87,505.41 101%
MAD MSE MAPE
80.46 7,955.04 9%

ɑ= 0.7

Periode Bulan Penjualan Yt+1 Error Error ABS Error Sqrt % Error Abs

1 Jan 783
2 Feb 857 783.00 74.00 74.00 5,476.00 9%
3 Mar 778 886.60 -108.60 108.60 11,793.96 14%
4 Apr 792 770.82 21.18 21.18 448.59 3%
5 May 847 783.52 63.48 63.48 4,029.71 7%
6 Jun 829 865.82 -36.82 36.82 1,355.71 4%
7 Jul 972 838.80 133.20 133.20 17,742.24 14%
8 Aug 927 1,031.77 -104.77 104.77 10,976.75 11%
9 Sep 837 956.85 -119.85 119.85 14,364.02 14%
10 Okt 914 809.48 104.52 104.52 10,924.43 11%
11 Nov 827 917.50 -90.50 90.50 8,190.25 11%
12 Des 945 803.71 141.29 141.29 19,962.86 15%
SUM 998.21 105,264.54 114%
MAD MSE MAPE
90.75 9,569.50 10%

ɑ= 0.8
 Periode Bulan Penjualan Yt+1 Error Error ABS Error Sqrt % Error Abs

1 Jan 783
2 Feb 857 783.00 74.00 74.00 5,476.00 9%
3 Mar 778 901.40 -123.40 123.40 15,227.56 16%
4 Apr 792 751.32 40.68 40.68 1,654.86 5%
5 May 847 784.79 62.21 62.21 3,870.08 7%
6 Jun 829 878.74 -49.74 49.74 2,474.07 6%
7 Jul 972 833.39 138.61 138.61 19,212.73 14%
8 Aug 927 1,057.56 -130.56 130.56 17,045.91 14%
9 Sep 837 939.77 -102.77 102.77 10,561.67 12%
10 Okt 914 782.89 131.11 131.11 17,189.83 14%
11 Nov 827 934.44 -107.44 107.44 11,543.35 13%
12 Des 945 788.22 156.78 156.78 24,579.97 17%
SUM 1,117.30 128,836.05 128%
MAD MSE MAPE
101.57 11,712.37 12%

0.9

Periode Bulan Penjualan Yt+1 Error Error ABS Error Sqrt % Error Abs %error

1 Jan 783
2 Feb 857 783.00 74.00 74.00 5,476.00 9% 9%
3 Mar 778 916.20 -138.20 138.20 19,099.24 18% -18%
4 Apr 792 727.38 64.62 64.62 4,175.74 8% 8%
5 May 847 791.69 55.31 55.31 3,059.20 7% 7%
6 Jun 829 891.58 -62.58 62.58 3,916.26 8% -8%
7 Jul 972 824.07 147.93 147.93 21,883.28 15% 15%
 8 Aug 927 1,084.79 -157.79 157.79 24,897.68 17% -17%
9 Sep 837 915.04 -78.04 78.04 6,090.24 9% -9%
10 Okt 914 761.03 152.97 152.97 23,399.82 17% 17%
11 Nov 827 959.63 -132.63 132.63 17,590.72 16% -16%
12 Des 945 768.05 176.95 176.95 31,311.30 19% 19%
SUM 1,241.02 160,899.49 142% 6%
MAD MSE MAPE MPE
112.82 14,627.23 13% 1%

Jadi dapat disimpulkan untuk tingkat kesalahan lebih rendah yaitu periode tingkat 2
 %error

9%
-3%
0%
6%
3%
17%
9%
-3%
6%
-6%
8%
45%
MPE
4%

%error

9%
-4%
-1%
 6%
1%
15%
4%
-9%
2%
-10%
6%
18%
MPE
2%

%error

9%
-6%
-2%
6%
0%
14%
1%
-13%
2%
-11%
8%
7%
MPE
 1%

%error

9%
-8%
-1%
6%
-1%
14%
-3%
-15%
3%
-10%
10%
3%
MPE
0%

%error
 9%
-10%
-1%
7%
-2%
14%
-6%
-16%
5%
-10%
12%
2%
MPE
0%

%error

9%
-12%
1%
7%
-3%
13%
-9%
-15%
8%
 -10%
13%
3%
MPE
0%

%error

9%
-14%
3%
7%
-4%
14%
-11%
-14%
11%
-11%
15%
4%
MPE
0%
 %error

9%
-16%
5%
7%
-6%
14%
-14%
-12%
14%
-13%
17%
5%
MPE
0%