0.607 0.214 0.

179
week sales 3MA E E-sq 3WMA E E-sq
1 110
2 115
3 125
4 120 116.7 3.3 11.1 113.75 6.3 39.1
5 125 120.0 5.0 25.0 118.0357 7.0 48.5
6 120 123.3 -3.3 11.1 123.9286 -3.9 15.4
7 130 121.7 8.3 69.4 121.0714 8.9 79.7
8 115 125.0 -10.0 100.0 124.8214 -9.8 96.5
9 110 121.7 -11.7 136.1 121.25 -11.3 126.6
10 130 118.3 11.7 136.1 123.2143 6.8 46.0

MSE 69.8 MSE 64.5

0.308 0.308 0.309

week sales 4MA E E-sq 4WMA E E-sq
1 110
2 115
3 125
4 120
5 125 117.5 7.5 56.3 120 5.0 25.0
6 120 121.3 -1.3 1.6 121.0714 -1.1 1.1
7 130 122.5 7.5 56.3 124.8214 5.2 26.8
8 115 123.8 -8.8 76.6 121.25 -6.3 39.1
9 110 122.5 -12.5 156.3 123.2143 -13.2 174.6
10 130 118.8 11.3 126.6 116.6071 13.4 179.4

MSE 67.6 MSE 63.7

8.2 RMSE 8.0
0.100
 alpha = 0.3810
Week Sales Forecast Error Sq_Error
1 110
2 115 110 5.00 25.00
3 125 111.90 13.10 171.48
4 120 116.89 3.11 9.65
5 125 118.08 6.92 47.92
6 120 120.71 -0.71 0.51
7 130 120.44 9.56 91.35
8 115 124.08 -9.08 82.52
9 110 120.62 -10.62 112.85
10 130 116.58 13.42 180.21
3.41 721.48 525.00
MSE= 80.16 75.00
RMSE = 8.95
 month Jobs t y t_sq y*t F
t Y 1 353 1 353 357.1
March 1 353 2 387 4 774 364.5
April 2 387 3 342 9 1026 371.9
May 3 342 4 374 16 1496 379.3
June 4 374 5 396 25 1980 386.7
July 5 396 6 409 36 2454 394.1
August 6 409 7 399 49 2793 401.5
September 7 399 8 412 64 3296 408.9
October 8 412 9 408 81 3672 416.3
November 9 408 45 3480 285 17844

349.6667 b1= 7.40 7.4

7.4
bo= 349.67 349.67

t y
1 353
y
2 387 450
3 342 400
4 374 350
5 396 300
6 409
250
7 399
200
8 412
150
9 408
424 100
431 50
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
 E E_sq
-4.066667 16.53778
22.53333 507.7511
-29.86667 892.0178
-5.266667 27.73778
9.333333 87.11111
14.93333 223.0044
-2.466667 6.084444
3.133333 9.817778
-8.266667 68.33778

MSE= 204.2667
RMSE= 14.29219

6 7 8 9 10
 alpha = 0.59
beta = 0.51
month Jobs L b F E Sq_E
March 353 353 34
April 387 387.0 34.0 387 0 0
May 342 374.3 10.2 421 -79 6241
June 374 378.3 7.0 384.5505 -10.55047 111.3124
July 396 391.6 10.2 385.3484 10.65156 113.4557
August 409 406.1 12.4 401.876 7.123959 50.75079
September 399 407.0 6.5 418.4659 -19.46592 378.9219
October 412 412.6 6.1 413.4895 -1.489458 2.218484
November 408 412.4 2.9 418.681 -10.68099 114.0835
December 415.2272

MSE= 1001.678
RMSE= 31.64929
Year Quater 1 Quater 2 Quater 3 Quater 4
y t Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3
1 125 153 106 88 Q1 125 1 1 0 0
2 118 161 133 102 Q2 153 2 0 1 0
3 138 144 113 80 Q3 106 3 0 0 1
4 109 137 125 109 Q4 88 4 0 0 0
5 130 165 128 96 Q1 118 5 1 0 0
Q2 161 6 0 1 0
Q3 133 7 0 0 1
Q4 102 8 0 0 0
Q1 138 9 1 0 0
Q2 144 10 0 1 0
Q3 113 11 0 0 1
Q4 80 12 0 0 0
Q1 109 13 1 0 0
Q2 137 14 0 1 0
Q3 125 15 0 0 1
Q4 109 16 0 0 0
Q1 130 17 1 0 0
Q2 165 18 0 1 0
Q3 128 19 0 0 1
Q4 96 20 0 0 0

y
180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
40

20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8937913
R Square 0.798863
Adjusted R Square 0.7611498
Standard Error 11.324752
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 8150 2716.6667 21.182586 8.104E-06
Residual 16 2052 128.25
Total 19 10202

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
Intercept 95 5.0645829 18.757714 2.566E-12 84.263564 105.73644 84.263564 105.73644
Qtr1 29 7.1624018 4.0489211 0.0009312 13.816386 44.183614 13.816386 44.183614
Qtr2 57 7.1624018 7.9582243 5.935E-07 41.816386 72.183614 41.816386 72.183614
Qtr3 26 7.1624018 3.6300672 0.0022516 10.816386 41.183614 10.816386 41.183614
Upper 95.0%
y seas 1 seas2 t SUMMARY OUTPUT
1856 1 0 1
2012 0 1 2 Regression Statistics
985 0 0 3 Multiple R 0.9937173
1995 1 0 4 R Square 0.987474
2168 0 1 5 Adjusted R Square 0.9827768
1072 0 0 6 Standard Error 73.086079
2241 1 0 7 Observations 12
2306 0 1 8
1105 0 0 9 ANOVA
2280 1 0 10 df SS MS
2408 0 1 11 Regression 3 3368786 1122929
1120 0 0 12 Residual 8 42732.6 5341.575
13 Total 11 3411519
14
15 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 797 59.674534 13.355781
seas 1 1095.4333 53.188875 20.595159
seas2 1189.4667 52.061067 22.847528
t 36.466667 6.2902482 5.7973335

t y
1 1856
2 2012
3 985
4 1995
5 2168
6 1072
7 2241
8 2306
9 1105
10 2280
11 2408
12 1120
 F Significance F
210.22427 6.028E-08

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

9.446E-07 659.39028 934.60972 659.39028 934.60972
3.235E-08 972.77957 1218.0871 972.77957 1218.0871
1.428E-08 1069.4136 1309.5197 1069.4136 1309.5197
0.0004064 21.961328 50.972005 21.961328 50.972005
 deseasonalized
t y CMA StIt St series
3000
1 1856 1.177777 1575.8 1575.85
2 2012 1618 1.243767 1.236229 1627.5 1627.53
3 985 1664 0.591947 0.585994 1680.9 1680.904 2500
4 1995 1716 1.162587 1.177777 1693.9 1693.869
5 2168 1745 1.242407 1.236229 1753.7 1753.721 2000
6 1072 1827 0.586754 0.585994 1829.4 1829.37 f(x) = 3
R² ==0.5
f(x)
7 2241 1873 1.196476 1.177777 1902.7 1902.737 R² = 0.
1500
8 2306 1884 1.223992 1.236229 1865.4 1865.35
9 1105 1897 0.582499 0.585994 1885.7 1885.685
10 2280 1931 1.180735 1.177777 1935.9 1935.85 1000
11 2408 1936 1.243802 1.236229 1947.9 1947.859
12 1120 0.585994 1911.3 1911.282 500
1.177777 2021.849 2381
1.236229 2055.852 2542
0
0.585994 2089.854 1225 0

season1 St
season2 1.243767 1.238492 1.236229
season3 0.591947 0.587067 0.585994
season1 1.162587 1.179933 1.177777
season2 1.242407 1.00183 3
season3 0.586754
season1 1.196476
season2 1.223992
season3 0.582499
season1 1.180735
season2 1.243802
season3
3000

2500

2000
f(x) = 34.0023493629001 x + 1579.81875096042
R² ==0.901961469683868
f(x) 5.82517482517483 x + 1757.80303030303
1500 R² = 0.00142234913640726

1000

500

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
12 14