DOUBLE EKSPONENSIAL SMOOTHING

ɑ= 0.1
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 790.40 783.74 797.06 0.74
3 Mar 778 789.16 784.28 794.04 0.54
4 Apr 792 789.44 784.80 794.09 0.52
5 May 847 795.20 785.84 804.56 1.04
6 Jun 829 798.58 787.11 810.05 1.27
7 Jul 972 815.92 789.99 841.85 2.88
8 Aug 927 827.03 793.70 860.36 3.70
9 Sep 837 828.03 797.13 858.92 3.43
10 Okt 914 836.62 801.08 872.17 3.95
11 Nov 827 835.66 804.54 866.79 3.46
12 Des 945 846.60 808.74 884.45 4.21
Forcast m1
Forcast m2
Forcast m3

ɑ= 0.2
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop
1 Jan 783 783 783
2 Feb 857 797.80 785.96 809.64 2.96
3 Mar 778 793.84 787.54 800.14 1.58
4 Apr 792 793.47 788.72 798.22 1.19
5 May 847 804.18 791.81 816.54 3.09
6 Jun 829 809.14 795.28 823.00 3.47
7 Jul 972 841.71 804.57 878.86 9.29
8 Aug 927 858.77 815.41 902.13 10.84
9 Sep 837 854.42 823.21 885.62 7.80
10 Okt 914 866.33 831.83 900.83 8.62
11 Nov 827 858.47 837.16 879.77 5.33
12 Des 945 875.77 844.88 906.66 7.72
Forcast m1
Forcast m2
Forcast m3
 ɑ= 0.3
Periode Bulan Penjualan S' S'' Konstanta Sloop
1 Jan 783 783.00 783.00
2 Feb 857 805.20 789.66 820.74 6.66
3 Mar 778 797.04 791.87 802.21 2.21
4 Apr 792 795.53 792.97 798.09 1.10
5 May 847 810.97 798.37 823.57 5.40
6 Jun 829 816.38 803.77 828.98 5.40
7 Jul 972 863.07 821.56 904.57 17.79
8 Aug 927 882.25 839.77 924.73 18.21
9 Sep 837 868.67 848.44 888.91 8.67
10 Okt 914 882.27 858.59 905.95 10.15
11 Nov 827 865.69 860.72 870.66 2.13
12 Des 945 889.48 869.35 909.62 8.63
Forcast m1
Forcast m2
Forcast m3
 FORCAST = αt + (bt*m)
Forecast

783.00
797.80
794.58
794.61
805.60
811.32
844.73
864.07
862.36
876.12
870.24
888.65

Forecast

783.00
812.60
801.72
799.41
819.63
826.47
888.15
912.98
893.43
909.46
885.10
914.39
Forecast

783.00
827.40
804.42
799.18
828.97
834.39
922.36
942.93
897.58
916.10
872.79
918.25
ɑ= 0.1

Periode Bulan Penjualan Yt+1 Error Error ABS Error Sqrt

1 Jan 783
2 Feb 857 783.00 74.00 74.00 5,476.00
3 Mar 778 797.80 -19.80 19.80 392.04
4 Apr 792 794.58 -2.58 2.58 6.66
5 May 847 794.61 52.39 52.39 2,745.13
6 Jun 829 805.60 23.40 23.40 547.51
7 Jul 972 811.32 160.68 160.68 25,817.76
8 Aug 927 844.73 82.27 82.27 6,768.21
9 Sep 837 864.07 -27.07 27.07 732.55
10 Okt 914 862.36 51.64 51.64 2,667.09
11 Nov 827 876.12 -49.12 49.12 2,412.56
12 Des 945 870.24 74.76 74.76 5,588.51
SUM 617.70 53,154.02
MAD MSE
56.15 4,832.18
 % Error Abs %error

9% 9%
3% -3%
0% 0%
6% 6%
3% 3%
17% 17%
9% 9%
3% -3%
6% 6%
6% -6%
8% 8%
69% 45%
MAPE MPE
6% 4%