Le chapitre 1 décrit ce que j’entends par l’expression « les pièces

manquantes du management ». Vous y trouverez aussi des explications

sur la santé organisationnelle. Le chapitre 2 aborde un enjeu essentiel de
nos organisations : la reconnaissance au travail. Puis le chapitre 3 traite
de l’importance du soutien social et des relations interpersonnelles.
Vient ensuite, dans le chapitre 4, la question délicate du manque de
respect au travail. Le chapitre 5 couvre un sujet populaire de nos jours :
la conciliation travail-vie personnelle. Les enjeux liés à la charge de
travail font l’objet du chapitre 6. Le chapitre 7 aborde la question de
l’autonomie des employés et de leur participation aux décisions. Le
conflit et l’ambiguïté de rôle sont discutés au chapitre 8. Pour conclure
ce livre, le chapitre 9, intitulé
Joignez les gestes à la parole
, présente une
démarche d’ensemble simple et efficace pour implanter des changements
qui permettront de combler les vides laissés par les pièces
manquantes du management.
J’ai voulu que ce livre ne soit pas uniquement
une lecture qui porte à réfléchir, mais
aussi un outil qui permet de passer à l’action.
En tant que manager, vous y trouverez de
nombreux éléments afin de changer les
conditions de travail, les pratiques de management
ainsi que les stratégies de leadership
de votre organisation. Pour écrire ce livre,
j’ai puisé à diverses sources : mes recherches universitaires, mes interventions
à titre de consultant, mes discussions avec des managers et des
employés, les questions qui m’ont été posées au cours de mes conférences

How to Trade
1. Check monthly: TL,Fib,Pattern
2. Check the weekly chart: Trend line, Fib, pattern, line chart, Important
61.8/78.6 level and
-27 for weekly TP
3. Lets go on daily, if you missed the weekly entry you need to find trend line and
fibo
connection, pattern, and look left in the past on line chart. take the entry on
61.8 or 78.6
on the strongest res/support level! you can use the daily -27 for tp1— 2tp
weekly!!! if you
still missed the perfect entry on the daily lets go on the h4 chart wait pull back!
4. H4 try to find the same things for the entry than on the bigger timeframe
5. Check the EMA and the MACD for the direction on H4 or Daily but not less. (Trend
line
working together with MACD and EMA. (first MACD cross, after TL break, and EMA
cross!)
6. Important things: the bigger timeframe TL,fib, and pattern always stronger!
You can find few team call in the mentor channel, so you watch them also!
The first thing what you need to do, watch all of my videos what i sent for you,
practice draw the
patterns on the chart and learn how are they create and complete this is one of the
important
thing, because if you know how the patterns create and complete, you know what is
the final
move, after you just need to use the other tools for the perfect entry in the
future. When you
feel like know everything come back and we make zoom call, and i check what you
learn, and we
going on the next session i prefer if you want to trade, first week you practice on
demo account!
You need to download Zoom and sign up. if you have any question write me anytime
please, not
hesitate!
Learn hard, Trade easy!xxxxxgrfgrgghrghtrh
@df
ddd

d
d
d
d
d
d
ddddddddgfrgrtghrgr
rgtr
ghtrhg
th
th
th
!!@@@#####
djklgjgljkglfjljlgf;gj;lgjl;fgj;lfjg;lfjg;l
dkdjhkdjdkjdkdjkdjkdjkdj
;lkd;k;dk;dk;dk;dkAlso you may see some shakeouts in the trading range. The SM
would temporarily drive down the prices below the support line in order to takeout
the stop losses and panic the weak hands into selling. You will see the stock
bounces back above the support line immediately. By this process the SM is shaking
out the weak money from the stock. For most of us it is just a failed breakout.
Sometime the stock instead of bouncing back would continue to drop if there was too
much supply. So trading these breakouts could be tricky.
Also it would a good sign if the stocks trading range is much above the support
line. Normally we would see some of the above signs if not all in the accumulation
area. There are many other patterns which signify accumulation. Some of them are
rounding bottoms, reverse head and shoulder and double bottoms (or “W”) patterns.
Each could be explained in terms of SM activity. However we would go into the
details now. One thing to keep in mind when evaluating patterns is that it is very
important to check the volume pattern as well.
For an example we will look at the chart of HCC where a clear accumulation
indication was seen June 2007
KARTHIKDon’t skip breakfast. Studies show that eating a proper breakfast is one of
the most positive things
you can do if you are trying to lose weight. Breakfast
skippers tend to gain weightAout 05 9:10 am (centre dentaire anjou) jeantalon. dr

Because we have been discussing the importance of information

in the marketplace, let us take a moment to consider the various
sources of information available to a trader and how they should
be used. Two main types of information need to be applied in the
market place—fundamental and technical.
Fundamental information allows one to build a background
and to place price in perspective. These are probably the two
most important disciplines for a trader to develop. They allow
one to take advantage of situations and enable one to sense op-
portunities. They make it possible to trade with confidence as
one learns to “feel” the market. Fundamental information is con-
stantly available: from the news, trade journals, government of-
fices, corporate news releases, and so on. However, it is hard to
acquire and use fundamental information in a timely fashion
early in a trading career because one cannot yet relate it to the ac-
tual trading process. One must build a bank of actual trading ex-
perience which the fundamental information can be related to,
and this takes time. The difficulty in using fundamental infor-
mation is that one must interpret the data. Then this interpreta-
tion must be overlaid on the market itself. This calls for timing.
Sometimes one has the “right” data, only to discover that the
market is doing something else. Most fundamental information
should be used only as background. It can serve as a direct guide
for trading only when price is very advantageous in relation to
the data, or when the market is acting in accordance with the
data. The difficulty of getting information on time and then ap-
plying it correctly has made fundamental information very hard
to work with. As a result, most people do not use it.
Conversely, technical information comes in a nice neat
package. It appears to be so easy to use that people flock to it.
Technical data can be easy to see and easy to apply—but good re-
46 The Steidlmayer Method
sults are not so easy to achieve. The problem is that some tech-
nical data are good and some are bad; the trader must make
choices, interpret, and then time the trade. Most traders make
the mistake of using technical data as the basis for the decision-
making process when in fact they should be used mainly for tim-
ing an idea. Technical data are usually based on the forward pro-
jection of past data. But making accurate forward projections is
most difficult in any profession. Those who have mastered some
technical skills can use them fairly well. Market Profile is tech-
nical information, but it is drawn from a different database than
other forms of technical information. The Market Profile
database is evolving real time and reflects only what is happen-
ing on the trading floor. Market Profile tries to identify the un-
derlying conditions of the current market movement. Not only
does Market Profile communicate current price activity, it also
communicates whether market activity is likely to continue or
change. This is done by the way Market Profile captures the de-
velopment of trading activity by fully utilizing the horizontal di-
mension. This is the subject of the next chapter. All the param-
eters and definitions I prepared for Market Profile are soundpercent in the third
standard deviation.) Please excuse the sim-
plifications regarding the bell curve, but this is all that needs to
be understood at this time.
I still remember the page of the textbook where it said that
through the bell curve, out of apparent chaos comes a beautiful
cosmic order. This hit home because I knew that my trading ob-
servations and experiences up to this time lacked a sense of or-
der. I began trying to visualize the organization of the seemingly
chaotic activity in the commodity pits—the chaos that everyone
else accepted unquestioningly—within the structure of the bell
curve. My job would be to find a way to bring order to that chaos,
and the bell curve would be the tool.
At this point, the idea remained simply an image with no
hard work or evidence to back it up. But it remained in the back
of my mind for some time, waiting to be developed. My personal
trading had moved from being based on wire house recommen-
dations to newsletter recommendations. Although both good
and bad recommendations were available, I fell into the habit of
following the bad recommendations and being afraid to take the
good ones. Soon I realized I could not just buy a trading program
off the shelf or subscribe to a newsletter from a wire house. I had
to create my own trading program.
After about a year and a half at Berkeley, I decided that I had
learned all I could in college, yet I wanted my degree. I felt that
I had a natural bent toward trading, but what I was learning in
school would not be directly relevant to my career as a com-
modities trader. So after my sophomore year, I decided to give
Berkeley 1 more year, and I doubled up on all my units so as to
finish my program within that time.
During the summer of 1959, I took a finance course that in-
troduced me to the principles of value investing through the
classic work of Graham and Dodd. Their book, Security Analysis,
made a lot of sense because I had already learned from ob-
servation and from talking with my father that in any market the
relationship between price and value was the key—that price
away from value usually represented opportunity. I made the im-
mediate association of using the bell curve to find value in the
marketplace, although I still did not see how I was going to do
this. The idea of using the concepts of Graham and Dodd in con-
junction with the bell curve clearly intrigued me. I felt that aWhere It All
~tarted; Out of Chaos Comes O~der: The 'Crash of 1929; The
Crash of 1987: More Chaos and the Resulting Order; The New York Stock
~xchange: How It Works; The Nasdaq Stock Market: How It" Works; The
American Stock Exchange LLC: How It Works; Let's Dissect the Indexes;
Wall Street as "The Animal House": The Bulls and the Bears, the Sheep and
the Hogs; Two Emotions That Rule the Markets (and Most ofthe Rest ofthe
World); Supply and Demand; Check Your Understanding; What Is "Center
Point"?; Center Point: You . .. A Golden BuddhaTHE RUNS TEST
When we do sampling without replacement from a deck of cards, we can
determine by inspection that there is dependency. For certain events (such
as the profit and loss stream of a system's trades) where dependency cannot
be determined upon inspection, we have the runs test. The runs test will tell
us if our system has more (or fewer) streaks of consecutive wins and losses
than a random distribution.
The runs test is essentially a matter of obtaining the Z scores for the win
and loss streaks of a system's trades. A Z score is how many standard deviations
you are away from the mean of a distribution. Thus, a Z score of 2.00
is 2.00 standard deviations away from the mean (the expectation of a random
distribution of streaks of wins and losses).
The Z score is simply the number of standard deviations the data is from
the mean of the Normal Probability Distribution. For example, a Z score of
1.00 would mean that the data you are testing is within 1 standard deviation
from the mean. Incidentally, this is perfectly normal.
The Z score is then converted into a confidence limit, sometimes also
called a degree of certainty. The area under the curve of the Normal
Probability Function at 1 standard deviation on either side of the mean
equals 68% of the total area under the curve. So we take our Z score and
convert it to a confidence limit, the relationship being that the Z score is a
number of standard deviations from the mean and the confidence limit is
the percentage of area under the curve occupied at so many standard
deviations.Returning now to our argument, it is rather inconceivable that the
traders in the cash market all started trading the same types of systems as
those who were making money in the futures market at that time! Nor is it
any more conceivable that these cash participants decided to all gang up on
those who were profiteering in the futures market. There is no valid reason
why these systems should have stopped working, or stopped working as well
as they had, simply because many futures traders were trading them. That
argument would also suggest that a large participant in a very thin market
be doomed to the same failure as traders of these systems in the bonds
were. Likewise, it is silly to believe that all of the fat will be cut out of the
markets just because I write a book on account management concepts.
Cutting the fat out of the market requires more than an understanding of
money management concepts. It requires discipline to tolerate and endure
emotional pain to a level that 19 out of 20 people cannot bear. This you will
not learn in this book or any other. Anyone who claims to be intrigued by
the "intellectual challenge of the markets" is not a trader. The markets are
as intellectually challenging as a fistfight. In that light, the best advice I
know of is to always cover your chin and jab on the run. Whether you win or
lose, there are significant beatings along the way. But there is really very little
to the markets in the way of an intellectual challenge. Ultimately, trading
is an exercise in self-mastery and endurance. This book attempts to detail
the strategy of the fistfight. As such, this book is of use only to someone who
already possesses the necessary mental toughness.The shooting star was the first
sign of trouble in Exhibit 6.28. The
next session's bearish belt-hold line confirmed a top. Another bearish
belt hold during the following week reflected the underlying weakness
of the market.
Exhibit 6.29 is an example of back-to-back bearish belt holds in mid-
February. The which ensued, was sharp, but brief as a bullish
morning star pattern spelled a bottom.The longer the height of the belt-hold
candlestick line, the more significant
it becomes. Belt-hold lines are also more important if they have
not appeared for a while. The actual Japanese name for the belt hold is
a sumo wrestling term: yorikiri. It means "pushing your opponent out of
the ring while holding onto his belt." A close above a black bearish
hold line should mean a resumption of the A close under the
white bullish belt-hold line implies a renewal of selling pressure.
Exhibit 6.27 shows how bullish belt-hold line 1 signaled a rally.
hold line 2 is interesting. It confirmed a tweezers bottom since it maintained
the prior week's lows. A rally ensued which ended with a harami
a few weeks later.
........... ..........
Hold 1
, 7/23/90
. Bullish Belt .
4830 Hold 2
4830
4759
4775- 'Ju 'Oc t 'Jan 'Jul
PBELT-HOLD LINES
The belt hold is an individual candlestick line which can be either bullish
or bearish. The bullish belt hold is a strong white candlestick which
opens on the low of the day (or with a very small lower shadow) and
moves higher for the rest of the day. The bullish belt-hold line is also
called a white opening shaven bottom. If, as in Exhibit 6.25, the market is at
a low price area and a long bullish belt hold appears, it forecasts a rally.
The bearish belt hold (see Exhibit 6.26) is a long black candlestick which
opens on the high of the session (or within a few ticks of the high) and
continues lower through the session. If prices are high, the appearance
of a bearish belt hold is a top reversal. The bearish belt-hold line is
sometimes called a black opening shaven headLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-
Publication Data
Nison, Steve.
Japanese candlestick charting techniques : a contemporary guide to
the ancient investment technique of the Far East Steve Nison.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-13-931650-7
1. Stocks-Charts, diagrams, etc. 2. Investment analysis.
I. Title.
1991 90-22736
This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information
in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the
understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal,
accounting, or other professional service. If legal advice or other expert
assistance is required, the services of a competent professional
person should be sought.
From a Declaration of Principles Jointly Adopted by
a Committee of the American Bar Association
and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
by Steve Nison
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any
form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher.
New York Institute of Finance
Simon Schuster
Printed in the United States of America
1 0Website: www.TradeNavigator.com
E-mail: sales@tradenavigator.com
Phone: 1-800-808-3282
Phone: 1-719-884-0244
Markets Currently Available: Equities, forex, futures, and options. Contact this
company to find out the
latest information on products and services available.
Trade Navigator is a premier and first-class trading and investing ART platform. It
is a front-end platform
and is not a broker. Some of the brokers it is compatible with are: PFGBEST.com,
Infinity Futures, TransAct
Futures, and MF Global.
Market Analyst
Website: www.Market-Analyst.com
E-mail: sales@Market-Analyst.com
Phone: 1-800-557-2702—United States
Phone: 0-800-680-0428—United Kingdom
Phone: 800-130-1604—Singapore
Phone: 1-300-655-262—Australia
Phone: +61-7-3118-9580—All countries
Markets Currently Available: Equities, forex, futures, and options. Contact this
company to find out the
latest information on products and services available.
Market Analyst is a premier and first-class trading and investing ART platform. It
is a front-end platform and
is not a broker. Two of the brokers it is compatible with are GFT and Interactive
Brokers. Two of the data
feeds it connects to are DTN IQFeed and eSignal.
Patsystems (Third-PartyInitial-Stop Trend Exits
Most trading systems use a moving average to determine an exit signal. Moving
averages are usually derivatives
of price and therefore do not represent the true realities of the market.
Furthermore, moving averages can be
adjusted with variables such as simple versus compounded moving averages.
In contrast to the moving average approach, with Pyramid Trading Points you are
trading with market realities.
You will set your stop-loss exit at the base leg of the pyramid. An exit signal is
generated if and when prices
reverse one tick past the base leg.
If prices reverse and go against you by passing the Pyramid Trading Point base leg,
then some new information
has come into the market causing the reversal (see Figure B.1 and Figure B.2). We
exit the trade based on price
activity, which is a truth of the market.
Trailing-Stop Trend Exits
WhenB.3 you can see how the ART software places bullish and bearish PTP signals on
your chart so you can easily see
the changing trend direction at all times.
FIGURE B.3 Bullish and Bearish Pyramid Trading Points
This chart illustrates bullish (triangles pointing upward) and bearish (triangles
pointing downward) Pyramid
Trading Points. On a color chart the bullish PTP signals would be colored green and
the bearish PTP signals
would be colored red.Résultats de recherche
Résultats Web
https://www.investopedia.com/
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https://www.investopedia.com/www.investopedia.com › get-started-with-futures

Tips for Getting Into Futures Trading - Investopedia

25 juin 2019 - The futures markets can seem daunting, but these explanations
and ... works and the different strategies that you can use to make money.
Autres questions posées
How much money can you make in futures trading?
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https://finance.zacks.com/finance.zacks.com › ... › Investing for Beginners

How to Make Money Trading Futures | Finance - Zacks

Investors trade futures on margin, paying as little as 10 percent of the value of a
contract to own it and control the right to sell it until it expires. Margins allow
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Futures Trading: What to Know Before You Begin - NerdWallet
12 mars 2019 - There's a lively and liquid market for futures contracts. ... or
speculators, who seek to make money off of price changes in the contract itself.
https://money.howstuffworks.com/
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Futures Contracts - Money | HowStuffWorks

In traditional stock market investing, you make money only when the price of your
stock goes up. With stock market futures, you can make money even when the ...
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How to earn big money in future and option trading - Quora

17 réponses
5 déc. 2016 - Hello friends, If you want to earn big money in future and options
trading, you can follow 2 different ways which i will explain here. There are
basically 2 ways to ...
Do successful futures traders think that it is easy to make money ...
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11 oct. 2019
What is the percentage of people who make money in trading in ...
24 déc. 2017
Autres résultats pour www.quora.comPOTENTIAL VERSUS CONFIRMED PYRAMID
TRADING POINT
It’s important to understand the difference between a potential and a confirmed
PTP. A potential PTP will appear
yellow on your chart and will not change color until it has been confirmed. Once
the PTP has been confirmed, it
will change color to either red for a bearish downtrend or green for a bullish
uptrend. The definitions of potential
PTP and confirmed PTP follow.
Potential Pyramid Trading Point. A potential PTP may occur when prices have not yet
exceeded the
pointed peak or apex of the triangle. A number of charts in this appendix show
potential pyramids in a row;
they will appear yellow on a live color chart generated by the software. The reason
a pyramid is considered
potential is because price activity has not yet broken beyond the apex of the
triangle.
Confirmed Pyramid Trading Point. When prices exceed the pointed peak or apex of the
triangle, the
pyramid will become confirmed and will appear red or green on a live color chart
generated by the software.
The ART software will give you a voice alert (if you select this feature) only when
the PTP has been confirmed.
The value of watching your monitor to check for yellow potential PTP signals is
that you will have a heads-up that
a signal may be forming and you will have time to calculate your trade size prior
to the signal confirmation.
Important Note: If the yellow PTP signal is voided (not confirmed), it will
disappear from your chart. Another
note is that sometimes in fast-moving markets a confirmed PTP signal will appear
without warning (no yellow
potential PTP). Once you have been using the software and are comfortable with it,
this information will become
second nature and you will respond automatically to the various changing
signals.Typically, the faster the data, the more expensive it will be. The way you
determine the speed you will need is by
deciding what the time frame of your trading will be. In other words, will you be
trading on a higher time frame
and day trading or will you be trading on a lower time frame and investing?
If you plan on investing or position trading, you can make do with end-of-day data.
However, if you will be day
trading, you must have real-time lightning-speed data. Determine what your budget
allows for and what type of
trading you will be most profitable with.
In deciding where to get your data, you will need to take into account the
following factors by answering this
Q&A:
1. Q: What is your budget? Can you afford to pay for data? Do you have a current
data feed?
A: ___________________________________________________________
2. Q: Can you afford to open a brokerage account? What is the minimum dollar amount
required to open and maintain an account?
A: ___________________________________________________________
3. Q: What time frame are you trading in—real-time day trading or end-of-day
position
trading?
A: ___________________________________________________________
4. Q: Will you be paper trading or live trading?
A: ___________________________________________________________
5. Q: What broker(s) do you currently use, or what broker(s) are you interested in
using in
the future?
A: ___________________________________________________________
6. Q: Which of these brokers provide data?
A: ___________________________________________________________
7. Q: Which brokers pay for or waive your exchange fees?
A: ___________________________________________________________
8. Q: Do any of these brokers provide their own front-end charting platform? What,
if
anything, is the cost for that?
A: ___________________________________________________________
9. Q: Do these brokers plug into other front-end charting platforms?
A: ___________________________________________________________
10. Q: What market(s) have you decided to trade?
A: ___________________________________________________________
11. Q: Which symbols will you be trading and through which exchange(s)? What
brokers
carry these items?
A: ___________________________________________________________
12. Q: What trading tools and software do you currently use, and what platform do
they plug
into?
A: ___________________________________________________________
Once you have completed the preceding question-and-answer section, then you are
ready to begin your
brainstorming and research to get the best possible solution for your needs at this
place and time. For starters,
there are lots of choices at your disposal, including a number of front-end
charting platforms and data providers
that can connect you to brokers so that you can literally place trades right off
your chart. You can see in Table
6.12 a variety of data choices.
TABLE 6.12 Select a Data Feed That Matches Your NeedsHaving amassed a sizable
fortune, Roger Babson was not content to join the idle rich. Instead he
shared his business knowledge to protect investors, and invested his own wealth in
industries and
endeavors that would benefit humanity. After witnessing a dramatic stock market
crash and
financial panic in 1907, Roger Babson expanded his investment practice to include
counseling on
what to buy and sell as well as when it was wise to purchase or unload stocks.
Working with M.I.T.
Professor of Engineering George F. Swain, Roger Babson applied Isaac Newton's
theory of "actions
and reactions" to economics, originating the Babsonchart of economic indicators,
which assessed
current and predicted future business conditions. Although the Babsonchart has
since proved to be
an imperfect tool, through it Roger Babson earned the distinction of being the
first financial
forecaster to predict the stock-market crash of October, 1929, and the Great
Depression that
followed.
Roger Babson extended his interest in the public's welfare beyond investment
counseling. He
encouraged industries to develop products to improve public health and safety.
Among businesses
receiving Roger Babson's approval and financial backing were select manufacturers
of sanitary
paper towels and other hygienic products, fire alarm call boxes, fire sprinklers,
and traffic signals.
Roger Babson saw it as his duty to share his insights and experience. An avid
reader and writer, he
sought to dispense his brand of advice and wisdom beyond the readership of Babson's
Reports.
From 1910 to 1923, he commented on business and other matters as a regular
columnist for the
Saturday Evening Post. He also contributed weekly columns for the New York Times
and for the
newspapers owned by the Scripps Syndicate. Babson eventually formed his own
syndicate, the
Publishers Financial Bureau, to disseminate his writings to papers across the
United States. Over
the course of 33 years, he authored 47 books, including his autobiography, Actions
and Reactions.
Although his writings covered topics as diverse as business, education, health,
industry, politics,
religion, social conditions, and travel, the primary message behind each work was
that individuals
and society could and should change for the better.The Major Trend
Now finally we can get to the marquee moment, for your most
important job on Sundays is to determine whether the major trend
of the market is up or down—and at the same time you must think
about what could change your mind. With any luck, you will come
to the same conclusion for 250 weeks in a row or more, but as a
day trader it is still something you must consider and decide upon.
What makes the big trend? As equity investors, we are participating
in an auction market, and that simply means that buyers are pitted
against sellers. For the value of the market to go up, buyers need
to find a way to force sellers to hand over their inventory, which is
shares of stock. They do this by offering them an increasing amount
of money, until finally the holder hands over the shares. This is why
the starts of bull markets are characterized by such intensity. Sellers
need to be begged to hand over their shares, and buyers must
bid ever higher and more intensively to make them do it.
This battle over a limited number of shares is at the heart of the
market. In a bull trend, we start with the premise that buyers must
be more anxious to buy than the sellers are to sell. After we have
determined that this is true, then the question becomes: How muchTen Percent
Solution
Fortunately, there is one more statistical signature in Lowry’s bag
of analytical tricks to help us trade and make money from countertrend
declines amid a bull market. What you need to observe is
the percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their 10-day moving
average, as this is helpful in measuring short-term extremes of panic
behavior. According to Lowry’s, when the percentage of stocks trading
above their 10-day moving averages drops below 10 percent
amid a broadly uptrending market, this is a panic situation that cries
out for you to get your buying groove on. It often coincides with an
isolated 90 percent downside day, so there are lot of sparks flying
that might distract your attention.
A recent example emerged not long after the stock market began
to drop on February 27, 2007. The 10-day percentage indicator
dropped from a peak of 84.6 percent in February to a low of 3.7 per-Poor Timing
Method: Earnings Growth Forecasts
This may be a good time to note a timing methodology that makes
a lot of sense on the surface but doesn’t work at all, and that is trying
to time the market based on earnings growth projections. This
is because there is a real disconnect between earnings growth and
the stock market.
What gives? I know this goes against the conventional wisdom,
but hear me out. Ned Davis Research says that the disconnect
between earnings and stock results has occurred because earnings
don’t actually drive broad-market results—and never have.The same thing happened in
the spring of 2007, as you can see
on the same chart. The decline in U.S. markets started with a jolt
from the blue in late February as a result of a plunge in the Chinese
stock market and then continued into early March toward the
40-week low. The time to buy heavily into the plunge, as you can
see, was when the McClellan Oscillator fell to –200. The oscillator
ultimately fell to –300, but that’s OK. After it fell below –250
during the time frame in which you were expecting a major 40-
week cycle low, you should just have added to your new, leveraged
holdings with confidence.
Not too much later, in both cases, the market reversed, and you
were on your way to a big gain. But there was much more to both
cases than a quick profit because the vacuum created by selling led
to a tornado of bargain hunting and fevered buying. So many stocks
of all sizes and sectors were picked up so rapidly by voracious insti-
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242890
194312
145734
97156
×100The first pocket pivot is off both the 10‐day and 200‐day moving averages. The
two
days after this pocket pivot could be considered buyable as the stock is breaking
out
of a sideways consolidation/base. The two Xs that follow are both extended from the
10‐day moving average and above the buyable gap‐up day.
2. The second pocket pivot is off the 50‐day moving average after a constructive
consolidation
into the 50‐day moving average. Note how the price action does not suddenly
run into the 50‐day moving average but has a subtle rounding‐out effect.
3. Part of the third pocket pivot is cautionary since it is extended relative to
the 50‐day
moving average because the stock bounced straight up from its 50‐day moving
average.
The two Xs that follow are under the 50‐day moving average.
4. The fourth pocket pivot is up through the 50‐day moving average after a
rounding‐out
pattern is formed under the 50‐day moving average. The X that follows is extended
from the 10‐day moving average.
5. The fifth pocket pivot is a base‐breakout, so while it is extended from the 10‐
day
moving average, it is not extended relative to the overall base.
6. The sixth pocket pivot is also a base‐breakout and off the 10‐day moving
average.
The first, third, and fourth Xs that follow are extended relative to the 10‐day
moving
average. The second X that follows comes after a relatively sharp drop in the
stock,
and so it should not be bought until it closes at or above its 10‐day moving
average.
7. The seventh pocket pivot is cautionary since it is somewhat extended from the
10‐day moving average and comes after relatively choppy price action, even though
it is rounded‐out price action.The first X prior to the first pocket pivot is too
soon in the pattern, since it is just the
stock’s third day of trade since it went public. The second X occurs after a
downtrend
and closes under the 10‐day moving average. That this stock has only been trading
for a few weeks increases the risk in buying here. The first pocket pivot occurs
off
the 10‐day moving average, after the stock has had a chance to round out its basing
pattern, trading tight for three weeks. The next two Xs are extended from the 10‐
day
moving average.
2. The second pocket pivot is a buyable gap‐up, which is discussed in the next
chapter.
It occurs after a steep pullback, which is not unusual for a volatile IPO such as
this one.
3. The third pocket pivot occurs off the 50‐day moving average on the day it does
its
secondary offering. Notice in the days leading up to the third pocket pivot how the
stock got continuous support as it tested its 50‐day moving average. The next two
Xs
are extended from the 10‐day moving average. The window of opportunity to buy is
often just on the day of the pocket pivot.
4. The fourth pocket pivot retests, breaks to new highs intraday, then has a
reasonably
strong close. Such upside reversal patterns are particularly favorable. The X that
follows
is extended from the 10‐day moving average.