PERIODO DE TIEMPO AÑO VENTAS

1 2010 3,480.7 Enfoque simp

2 2011 3,263.9 5,000.0
4,659.4
3 2012 3,761.5 4,500.0
4 2013 4,659.4 4,000.0 3,979.
3,761.5
5 2014 3,979.3 3,500.0 3,480.7
3,263.9
6 2015 3,394.9 3,000.0
2,500.0
7 2016 3,092.5
2,000.0
8 2017 2,982.2
1,500.0
9 2018 2,846.9
1,000.0
10 2019 2,846.9 500.0
-
1 2 3 4 5
 Enfoque simple
4,659.4

3,979.3
3,761.5
,480.7 3,394.9
3,263.9
3,092.5 2,982.2
2,846.9
2,846.9

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
PERIODO DE TIEMPO AÑO VENTAS
1 2010 3,480.7 Promedio simple
2 2011 3,263.9 5,000.0
4,659.4
3 2012 3,761.5 4,500.0
4 2013 4,659.4 4,000.0 3,979.3
3,761.5
5 2014 3,979.3 3,500.0 3,480.7 3,39
3,263.9
6 2015 3,394.9 3,000.0
2,500.0
7 2016 3,092.5
2,000.0
8 2017 2,982.2
1,500.0
9 2018 2,846.9
1,000.0
10 2019 3,495.7
500.0
-
1 2 3 4 5 6
 Promedio simple

4,659.4

3,979.3
3,761.5
,480.7 3,394.9
3,263.9 3,495.7
3,092.5 2,982.2
2,846.9

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
PERIODO AÑO VENTAS PMS (N2) PMS (N3) PMS (N4) Error (N2)
1 2010 3,480.7
2 2011 3,263.9
3 2012 3,761.5 3372.3 389.2
4 2013 4,659.4 3512.7 3502.0 1146.7
5 2014 3,979.3 4210.5 3894.9 3791.4 -231.2
6 2015 3,394.9 4319.4 4133.4 3916.0 -924.5
7 2016 3,092.5 3687.1 4011.2 3948.8 -594.6
8 2017 2,982.2 3243.7 3488.9 3781.5 -261.5
9 2018 2,846.9 3037.4 3156.5 3576.8 -190.5
10 2019 2914.6 2914.6 2973.9 3497.6

Promedios m
5,000.0
4,500.0
4,000.0
3,500.0 3,480.7
3,263.9
3,000.0
2,500.0
2,000.0
1,500.0
1,000.0
500.0
-
0 1 2
 Error2 (N2) Error (N3) Error2 (N3) Error (N4) Error2 (N4)

151476.6
1314920.9 1157.4 1339497.6
53430.3 84.4 7117.7 187.9 35315.8
854607.8 -738.5 545382.3 -521.1 271571.3
353549.2 -918.7 844009.7 -856.3 733206.9
68382.3 -506.7 256744.9 -799.3 638920.5
36271.2 -309.6 95872.8 -729.9 532754.0
152,734 176,309 532,754

Promedios móviles

4,659.4

3,979.3
3,761.5
3,480.7 3,394.9
3,263.9

1 2 3 4 5 6
PERIODO AÑO VENTAS PRONÓSTICO SES 0,2 PRONÓSTICO SES 0,4 PRONÓSTICO SES 0,6
0.2 0.4 0.6
1 2010 3,480.7 3,481 3,481 3,481
2 2011 3,263.9 3,481 3,481 3,481
3 2012 3,761.5 3,437 3,394 3,351
4 2013 4,659.4 3,502 3,541 3,597
5 2014 3,979.3 3,734 3,988 4,234
6 2015 3,394.9 3,783 3,985 4,081
7 2016 3,092.5 3,705 3,749 3,669
8 2017 2,982.2 3,583 3,486 3,323
9 2018 2,846.9 3,463 3,285 3,119
10 2019 2,882 3,339 3,110 4,081

Suavizamiento exponencial
5,000.0
4,659.4
4,500.0
4,000.0
3,761.5
3,500.0 3,480.7
3,263.9
3,000.0
2,500.0
2,000.0
1,500.0
1,000.0
500.0
-
0 1 2 3 4 5
 PRONÓSTICO SES 0,8 Error2 Error2 Error2 Error2
0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
3,481
3,481
3,307 105,079.71 135,070.95 168,822.37 206,333.98
3,671 1,339,176.64 1,250,845.40 1,128,379.31 977,622.61
4,462 60,359.84 81.95 65,126.63 232,661.91
4,076 150,430.79 347,901.41 471,254.35 463,584.07
3,531 375,380.78 430,728.39 332,919.62 192,347.17
3,180 360,536.13 254,096.05 116,346.99 39,209.86
3,022 379,033.90 191,623.00 73,841.92 30,591.05
2,882 395,713.97 372,906.74 336,670.17 306,050.09

ponencial

4,659.4

3,979.3
3,761.5
3,394.9

4 5 6
 PERIODO AÑO VENTAS
1 2010 3,480.7 Regresión Lineal simple
2 2011 3,263.9 5,000.0
3 2012 3,761.5 4,500.0
4,000.0
4 2013 4,659.4 3,500.0 f(x) = − 114.37696969697 x + 4048.03333333333
5 2014 3,979.3 3,000.0 R² = 0.348147981505766
6 2015 3,394.9 2,500.0
2,000.0
7 2016 3,092.5 1,500.0
8 2017 2,982.2 1,000.0
500.0
9 2018 2,846.9 -
10 2019 2,728.3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Regresión Logarítmica
5,000.0
4,500.0
4,000.0
f(x) = − 319.184519846769 ln(x) + 3901.06946747046
3,500.0
R² = 0.158926068473864
3,000.0
2,500.0
2,000.0
1,500.0
REGRESIÓN R2 1,000.0
500.0
Lineal 0.3481 -
Exponencial 0.4003 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cuadrática 0.5935
Logarítmica 0.1589
Potencial 0.1966
Cúbica 0.7161

PRONÓSTICO META DE VENTAS

PERIODO AÑO PROYECTADA
10 2019 2,728.3
simple Regresión Exponencial Regresión Cuadrática
5,000.0 5,000.0
4,500.0 4,500.0
4,000.0 4,000.0
+ 4048.03333333333 3,500.0 f(x) = 4082.94366877097 3,500.0
f(x) = − 37.9568182 x² + 303.14803 x + 3212.98333
3,000.0 exp( − 0.034534376550649 x ) 3,000.0
R² = 0.593532004494247
2,500.0 R² = 0.406332173185837 2,500.0
2,000.0 2,000.0
1,500.0 1,500.0
1,000.0 1,000.0
500.0 500.0
- -
6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

rítmica Regresión Potencial Regresión Cúbica

5,000.0 5,000.0
4,500.0 4,500.0
4,000.0 4,000.0
3,500.0f(x) = 3922.52649999199 x^-0.09921393240964 3,500.0 f(x) = 11.0916 x³ − 220.968 x² + 1147.22 x
) + 3901.06946747046 + 2261.33
3,000.0R² = 0.196583963876502 3,000.0
R² = 0.716108884315513
2,500.0 2,500.0
2,000.0 2,000.0
1,500.0 1,500.0
1,000.0 1,000.0
500.0 500.0
- -
6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2728.3

367.215514
uadrática

03.14803 x + 3212.98333

6 7 8 9 10

Cúbica

220.968 x² + 1147.22 x
315513

5 6 7 8 9 10
 PERIODO AÑO VENTAS
1 2010 3,480.7
2 2011 3,263.9
3 2012 3,761.5
4 2013 4,659.4
5 2014 3,979.3
6 2015 3,394.9
7 2016 3,092.5
8 2017 2,982.2
METODO DE PRONÓSTICO 9 2018 2,846.9
ENFOQUE SIMPLE 10 2019 2,846.9
PROMEDIO SIMPLE 10 2019 3,495.7
PROMEDIO MÓVIL 10 2019 2,914.6
SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL 10 2019 2,881.9
REGRESIÓN 10 2019 2,728.3
 Resumen métodos de pronóstico
5,500.0

5,000.0

4,659.4

4,500.0

4,000.0 3,979.3

3,761.5

3,500.0 3,480.7
3,394.9

3,263.9

3,092.5
3,000.0 2,982.2

2,846

2,500.0
0 2 4 6 8
óstico

3,495.7

$ 3,495,700,000,000,000.00 el sector
$ 104,871,000,000,000.00 3%

3,092.5
2,982.2
2,914.6
2,881.9
2,846.9 2,846.9

2,728.3

8 10 12
participación deseada