DETERMINAR EL PRONOSTICO DE ABRIL DEL 2022; P.

MOVIL SIMPLE N= 2,3,4

N=2
AÑO # PERIODOS VENTAS PRONOSTICO
1 Sep-20 1,250
2 Oct-20 1,150
2020
3 Nov-20 970 1,200
4 Dec-20 1,100 1,060
5 Jan-21 1,170 1,035
6 Feb-21 1,080 1,135
7 Mar-21 1,190 1,125
8 Apr-21 1,230 1,135
9 May-21 1,210 1,210
10 Jun-21 1,050 1,220
2021
11 Jul-21 1,030 1,130
12 Aug-21 990 1,040
13 Sep-21 1,180 1,010
14 Oct-21 1,200 1,085
15 Nov-21 1,180 1,190
16 Dec-21 1,260 1,190
17 Jan-22 1,230 1,220
18 Feb-22 1,190 1,245
2022
19 Mar-22 1,075 1,210
20 Apr-22 1,133

ERROR SIMPLE N=2 -6.18

ERROR ABSOLUTO =2 88.53

VE

1,300

1,250 1,250

1,2

1,200 1,200
1,190

1,170

1,150 1,150 1,1

1,135 1,1
1,123 1,125
1,118 1,117
1,100 1,100 1,098
1,080 1,080
1,073
 1,170

1,150 1,150 1,1

1,135 1,1
1,123 1,125
1,118 1,117
1,100 1,100 1,098
1,080 1,080
1,073
1,060
1,050
1,035

1,000

970

950

900

850

800
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

VENTAS Linear ( VE
ABRIL DEL 2022; P. MOVIL SIMPLE N= 2,3,4

(VENTA - PRONOSTICO) |VENTA - PRONOSTICO| N=3 (VENTA - PRONOSTICO)

ERROR ERROR ABS PRONOSTICO ERROR

- 230 230
40 40 1,123 - 23
135 135 1,073 97
- 55 55 1,080 -
65 65 1,117 73
95 95 1,147 83
- - 1,167 43
- 170 170 1,210 - 160
- 100 100 1,163 - 133
- 50 50 1,097 - 107
170 170 1,023 157
115 115 1,067 133
- 10 10 1,123 57
70 70 1,187 73
10 10 1,213 17
- 55 55 1,223 - 33
- 135 135 1,227 - 152
1,165

ERROR SIMPLE N=2 7.81

ERROR ABSOLUTO =2 83.85

VENTAS + PRONOSTICOS N2 N3 N4

1,260

1,230
1,220
1,210 1,210
1,200
1,190 1,190 1,190
1,187
1,178 1,180 1,180
1,170 1,168
1,167 1,170
1,163
1,147
1,135 1,135 1,138
1,130 1,130
1,123 1,125 1,123
1,118 1,117
1,100 1,098 1,097 1,100
1,085
1,080 1,080
1,073 1,070
 1,170 1,168
1,167 1,170
1,163
1,147
1,135 1,135 1,138
1,130 1,130
1,123 1,125 1,123
1,118 1,117
1,100 1,098 1,097 1,100
1,085
1,080 1,080
1,073 1,070 1,067
1,063
1,060
1,050
1,040
1,035
1,030
1,023
1,010

990

0 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-2

VENTAS Linear ( VENTAS ) PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO

 |VENTA - PRONOSTICO| N=4 (VENTA - PRONOSTICO) |VENTA - PRONOSTICO|
ERROR ABS PRONOSTICO ERROR ERROR ABS

23
97 1,118 53 53
- 1,098 - 18 18
73 1,080 110 110
83 1,135 95 95
43 1,168 43 43
160 1,178 - 128 128
133 1,170 - 140 140
107 1,130 - 140 140
157 1,070 110 110
133 1,063 138 138
57 1,100 80 80
73 1,138 123 123
17 1,205 25 25
33 1,218 - 28 28
152 1,215 - 140 140
1,189

ERROR SIMPLE N=2 12.17

ERROR ABSOLUTO =2 91.17

1,260
1,245
1,230 1,227
1,220 1,223
1,213 1,218 1,215
1,210
1,205
1,200
1,190 1,190
1,187 1,190 1,189
1,180 1,180
1,165

1,138
1,133
1,123

1,100
1,085
1,075
1,070
 1,165

1,138
1,133
1,123

1,100
1,085
1,075
1,070 1,067
1,063

1,023
1,010

-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22

STICO PRONOSTICO
 N=2

DETERMINAR EL PRONOSTICO DE ABRIL DEL 2022; P. MOVIL PONDERADO N= 2

N=2
AÑO # PERIODOS VENTAS PRONOSTICO
1 Sep-20 1,250
2 Oct-20 1,150
2020
3 Nov-20 970 1,150
4 Dec-20 1,100 970
5 Jan-21 1,170 1,100
6 Feb-21 1,080 1,170
7 Mar-21 1,190 1,080
8 Apr-21 1,230 1,190
9 May-21 1,210 1,230
10 Jun-21 1,050 1,210
2021
11 Jul-21 1,030 1,050
12 Aug-21 990 1,030
13 Sep-21 1,180 990
14 Oct-21 1,200 1,180
15 Nov-21 1,180 1,200
16 Dec-21 1,260 1,180
17 Jan-22 1,230 1,260
18 Feb-22 1,190 1,230
2022 19 Mar-22 1,075 1,190
20 Apr-22 1,075
ERROR SIMPLE N=2 -4.41
ERROR ABSOLUTO =2 79.71

VE
1,300

1,250 1,250

1,2

1,200
1,190 1,1
1,1

1,170 1,170

1,150 1,150 1,150 1,151

1,143
1,200
1,190 1,1
1,1

1,170 1,170

1,150 1,150 1,150 1,151

1,143

1,107
1,105
1,100 1,100 1,100

1,080 1,083
1,082
1,080

1,050

1,007
1,000

970 970

950

900

850

800
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

VENTAS Linear ( VE
 0% N=3 13%
100% 0%
100% 87%
100%
ABRIL DEL 2022; P. MOVIL PONDERADO N= 2,3,4

(VENTA - PRONOSTICO) |VENTA - PRONOSTICO| N=3 (VENTA - PRONOSTICO)

ERROR ERROR ABS PRONOSTICO ERROR

- 180 180
130 130 1,007 93
70 70 1,107 63
- 90 90 1,143 - 63
110 110 1,083 107
40 40 1,187 43
- 20 20 1,210 0
- 160 160 1,207 - 157
- 20 20 1,074 - 44
- 40 40 1,054 - 64
190 190 998 182
20 20 1,160 40
- 20 20 1,172 8
80 80 1,180 80
- 30 30 1,252 - 22
- 40 40 1,223 - 33
- 115 115 1,199 - 124
1,096
ERROR SIMPLE N=2 6.73
ERROR ABSOLUTO =2 70.27

VENTAS + PRONOSTICOS N2 N3 N4

1,260

1,230 1,230
1,216
1,210 1,210
1,208
1,207
1,200 1,200
1,190 1,190
1,188
1,187
1,180 1,180 1,180 1,180
1,170 1,170 1,172
1,166
1,160
1,151
1,143
 1,216
1,210 1,210
1,208
1,207
1,200 1,200
1,190 1,190
1,188
1,187
1,180 1,180 1,180 1,180
1,170 1,170 1,172
1,166
1,160
1,151
1,143

1,107
1,105
1,100 1,100

1,080 1,083
1,082
1,080
1,074
1,067
1,050 1,050 1,054
1,047
1,030 1,030

1,007
998
996
990 990

970

0 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-2

VENTAS Linear ( VENTAS ) PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO

 N=4 0%
10%
0%
90%
100%

|VENTA - PRONOSTICO| N=4 (VENTA - PRONOSTICO) |VENTA - PRONOSTICO|

ERROR ABS PRONOSTICO ERROR ERROR ABS

93
63 1,105 65 65
63 1,151 - 71 71
107 1,082 108 108
43 1,188 42 42
0 1,216 - 6 6
157 1,208 - 158 158
44 1,067 - 37 37
64 1,047 - 57 57
182 996 184 184
40 1,166 34 34
8 1,180 0 0
80 1,180 80 80
22 1,254 - 24 24
33 1,225 - 35 35
124 1,197 - 122 122
1,090
ERROR SIMPLE N=2 0.24
ERROR ABSOLUTO =2 68.27

1,260 1,260
1,254
1,252

1,230 1,230
1,225
1,223

1,200 1,200 1,199

1,197
1,190 1,190
1,180 1,180 1,180 1,180
1,172
1,166
1,160
 1,223

1,200 1,200 1,199

1,197
1,190 1,190
1,180 1,180 1,180 1,180
1,172
1,166
1,160

1,096
1,090
1,075 1,075

998
996
990

-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22

STICO PRONOSTICO
AÑO # PERIODOS VENTAS Δn
1 Sep-20 1,250 -
2 Oct-20 1,150 - 100
2020
3 Nov-20 970 - 180
4 Dec-20 1,100 130
5 Jan-21 1,170 70
6 Feb-21 1,080 - 90
7 Mar-21 1,190 110
8 Apr-21 1,230 40
9 May-21 1,210 - 20
10 Jun-21 1,050 - 160
2021
11 Jul-21 1,030 - 20
12 Aug-21 990 - 40
13 Sep-21 1,180 190
14 Oct-21 1,200 20
15 Nov-21 1,180 - 20
16 Dec-21 1,260 80
17 Jan-22 1,230 - 30
18 Feb-22 1,190 - 40
2022
19 Mar-22 1,075 - 115
20 Apr-22 1,065

VENTAS + PRONOSTICOS N2 N3
1,300

1,250 1,250

1,230

1,210
1,200
1,190

1,170

1,150 1,150
 1,210
1,200
1,190

1,170

1,150 1,150

1,100 1,100

1,080

1,050 1,050

1,030

1,000
990

970

950

900

850

800
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21

VENTAS Linear ( VEN

 𝑥 ̅Δ - 175 = -9.722222
18

1,075 + -9.722222 = 1,065

VENTAS + PRONOSTICOS N2 N3 N4

1,260

1,230 1,230

1,210
1,200
1,190 1,190
1,180 1,180
 1,210
1,200
1,190 1,190
1,180 1,180

1,080
1,075

1,050

1,030

990

1 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22

VENTAS Linear ( VENTAS )

1,075

22 Apr-22
AÑO # PERIODOS VENTAS Δ%n
1 Sep-20 1,250 0.0%
2 Oct-20 1,150 -8.0%
2020
3 Nov-20 970 -15.7%
4 Dec-20 1,100 13.4%
5 Jan-21 1,170 6.4%
6 Feb-21 1,080 -7.7%
7 Mar-21 1,190 10.2%
8 Apr-21 1,230 3.4%
9 May-21 1,210 -1.6%
10 Jun-21 1,050 -13.2%
2021
11 Jul-21 1,030 -1.9%
12 Aug-21 990 -3.9%
13 Sep-21 1,180 19.2%
14 Oct-21 1,200 1.7%
15 Nov-21 1,180 -1.7%
16 Dec-21 1,260 6.8%
17 Jan-22 1,230 -2.4%
18 Feb-22 1,190 -3.3%
2022
19 Mar-22 1,075 -9.7%
20 Apr-22 1,075

VENTAS + PRONOSTICOS N2 N3
1,300

1,250 1,250

1,230

1,210
1,200
1,190

1,170

1,150 1,150
 1,210
1,200
1,190

1,170

1,150 1,150

1,100 1,100

1,080

1,050 1,050

1,030

1,000
990

970

950

900

850

800
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21

VENTAS Linear ( VEN

 𝑥 ̅%Δn -8.0% = -0.44%
18

1,075 + -4.757884 = 1,070

VENTAS + PRONOSTICOS N2 N3 N4

1,260

1,230 1,230

1,210
1,200
1,190 1,190
1,180 1,180
 1,210
1,200
1,190 1,190
1,180 1,180

1,080
1,075

1,050

1,030

990

1 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22

VENTAS Linear ( VENTAS )

1,075

22 Apr-22
 n=

AÑO x PERIODOS VENTAS = y xy

1 Sep-20 1,250 1,250
2 Oct-20 1,150 2,300
2020
3 Nov-20 970 2,910
4 Dec-20 1,100 4,400
5 Jan-21 1,170 5,850
6 Feb-21 1,080 6,480
7 Mar-21 1,190 8,330
8 Apr-21 1,230 9,840
9 May-21 1,210 10,890
10 Jun-21 1,050 10,500
2021
11 Jul-21 1,030 11,330
12 Aug-21 990 11,880
13 Sep-21 1,180 15,340
14 Oct-21 1,200 16,800
15 Nov-21 1,180 17,700
16 Dec-21 1,260 20,160
17 Jan-22 1,230 20,910
18 Feb-22 1,190 21,420
2022
19 Mar-22 1,075 20,425
218,715

20 Apr-22 1,168
21 May-22 1,170
22 Jun-22 1,173
1,300
23 Jul-22 1,175
24 Aug-22 1,177 1,250 1,250

1,200
1,170
1,150
f(x) = 2.3947368421052
1,150

1,100 1,100
1,080
1,050

1,000
970
950

900

850
1,000
970
950

900

850

800
1 2 3 4 5 6
 19 𝑥 ̅ 10
𝑦 ̅ 1,144

100

n
𝑥^2
1
4
9 1365 2.394736842
16 b = 570 =
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144 1,144 - 23.95
169 a = = 1,120
196
225
256
289 pronostico
324
361
2,470

VENTAS = y
00

1,260
50 1,250
1,230 1,230
1,210
00 1,200
1,190 1,190
1,180 1,180
1,170
50
f(x) =1,1502.39473684210526 x + 1120
00 1,100
1,080 1,075
50 1,050
1,030
00
990
970
50

00

50
 1,030
00
990
970
50

00

50

00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
260
1,230

1,190

1,075
17 18 19