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Solver Demonstration
Solver Demonstration
Std 2% 4% 3% 7% 16%
Expected Return 10% 15% 12% 20%
Covariance A B C D
A 31.68
B 2.08 1.50
C 3.22 0.36 0.90
D 5.19 0.94 0.83 1.91
Weight of Stock A B C D
Port 1 0
Port 2 0
Port 3 0
Port 4 0
Port 5 0
Port 6 0
Start 6/30/1995 Portfolio Return =
End 6/30/1999
Frequency Monthly Share Prices
Step 1: (a) Compute historical return distribution (mean, variance...). your own belief/analysis about
(b) Using these historical statistics, together with your own belief/analysis, come up with estimates of the mean
(c) Variance/covariance can be taken from historical variance/covariance
N
∑ Σ W i E( R i )
Portfolio Return =
i =1
News Stock Mkt
Brambles Delta Gold News Corp All Ord Index
Brambles return (%) Delta Gold return (%) Corp return (%) Index return (%)
13.34 2.62 7.86 2012.7
13.48 0.010 2.65 0.011 7.85 -0.001 2117.5 0.052
13.38 -0.007 2.87 0.083 7.64 -0.027 2131.3 0.007
14.6 0.091 2.92 0.017 7.36 -0.037 2126.6 -0.002
13.96 -0.044 2.82 -0.034 6.62 -0.101 2063.3 -0.030
14.7 0.053 3.3 0.170 7.06 0.066 2147.6 0.041
15 0.020 3.26 -0.012 7.18 0.017 2188.5 0.019
15.85 0.057 3.65 0.120 7.25 0.010 2261 0.033
16.3 0.028 3.3 -0.096 7.44 0.026 2263.7 0.001
16.88 0.036 3.18 -0.036 7.49 0.007 2198.1 -0.029
17.45 0.034 3.18 0.000 7.46 -0.004 2285.7 0.040
17.6 0.009 3.4 0.069 7.03 -0.058 2235.9 -0.022
17.68 0.005 3.25 -0.044 7.21 0.026 2207.6 -0.013
17.8 0.007 3.09 -0.049 6.5 -0.098 2147.4 -0.027
18.9 0.062 3.02 -0.023 6.74 0.037 2230.1 0.039
20.5 0.085 2.8 -0.073 6.63 -0.016 2249.9 0.009
20.9 0.020 2.4 -0.143 7.18 0.083 2320.7 0.031
21.5 0.029 2.35 -0.021 6.54 -0.089 2361.4 0.018
24.55 0.142 2.36 0.004 6.64 0.015 2404.8 0.018
22.3 -0.092 2.19 -0.072 6.64 0.000 2406.6 0.001
21.7 -0.027 2.15 -0.018 6.86 0.033 2422.9 0.007
20.97 -0.034 1.88 -0.126 5.95 -0.133 2396.3 -0.011
23.2 0.106 2.17 0.154 5.91 -0.007 2453.9 0.024
23.65 0.019 2.17 0.000 5.83 -0.014 2574.9 0.049
26.19 0.107 2.21 0.018 6.35 0.089 2693.1 0.046
27.8 0.061 1.79 -0.190 6.17 -0.028 2695.4 0.001
26.8 -0.036 1.68 -0.061 6.13 -0.006 2548.8 -0.054
28.75 0.073 1.65 -0.018 7.08 0.155 2723.7 0.069
27.34 -0.049 1.2 -0.273 6.81 -0.038 2429.5 -0.108
28.01 0.025 1.3 0.083 7.82 0.148 2439.6 0.004
30.45 0.087 1.62 0.246 8.47 0.083 2579.5 0.057
29.7 -0.025 1.94 0.198 9.19 0.085 2611.5 0.012
30.8 0.037 1.89 -0.026 9.35 0.017 2630.3 0.007
31.45 0.021 1.98 0.048 9.97 0.066 2688.5 0.022
31.61 0.005 2.26 0.141 10.28 0.031 2712.9 0.009
32.4 0.025 1.9 -0.159 9.85 -0.042 2655.1 -0.021
31.69 -0.022 1.98 0.042 13.18 0.338 2620.6 -0.013
34.78 0.098 1.92 -0.030 12 -0.090 2661.9 0.016
34.6 -0.005 1.61 -0.161 10.69 -0.109 2423.7 -0.089
36.43 0.053 2.36 0.466 10.88 0.018 2497.7 0.031
35.09 -0.037 2.62 0.110 10.93 0.005 2548.1 0.020
39.01 0.112 2.38 -0.092 11.17 0.022 2669.7 0.048
39.75 0.019 2.48 0.042 10.78 -0.035 2697 0.010
43.25 0.088 2.47 -0.004 11.52 0.069 2751.4 0.020
41 -0.052 2.38 -0.036 11.3 -0.019 2742.2 -0.003
40.08 -0.022 2.23 -0.063 11.67 0.033 2843.3 0.037
44.4 0.108 2.35 0.054 12.66 0.085 3016.3 0.061
40.79 -0.081 2.24 -0.047 12.6 -0.005 2823.9 -0.064
39.8 -0.024 2.15 -0.040 12.89 0.023 2886.1 0.022
alysis about
h estimates of the mean
10yr
Govt.bond
(%)
8.78 0.0073
9.18 0.0077
9.03 0.0075
8.6 0.0072
8.4 0.0070
8.41 0.0070
8.33 0.0069
8.06 0.0067
8.71 0.0073
8.91 0.0074
8.95 0.0075
8.76 0.0073
8.96 0.0075
8.51 0.0071
7.8 0.0065
7.95 0.0066
7.52 0.0063
7.09 0.0059
7.36 0.0061
7.44 0.0062
7.53 0.0063
8.02 0.0067
7.82 0.0065
7.7 0.0064
7.04 0.0059
6.56 0.0055
6.72 0.0056
6.17 0.0051
6.27 0.0052
5.99 0.0050
6.08 0.0051
5.8 0.0048
5.83 0.0049
5.76 0.0048
5.74 0.0048
5.58 0.0047
5.67 0.0047
5.53 0.0046
5.62 0.0047
5.23 0.0044
5 0.0042
5.19 0.0043
4.8 0.0040
5.16 0.0043
5.37 0.0045
5.44 0.0045
5.28 0.0044
5.92 0.0049
6.03 0.0050
0.006
0.000
0.001
0.20
0.005778
0.000001
0.001130
0.195524
Step Two: Calculate the variance-covariance matrix and/or correlation matrix,
Go to Tools and click on Data Analysis, then look for Covariance (or correlation). Click on the Covariance, then highlight all columns (A to F).
See covariance results in cells (H10:N16)
Correlation matrix can be found using a similar process as described above
AGL return ANZ return BHP return Brambles Delta Gold News Corp
(%) (%) (%) return (%) return (%) return (%)
0.016 0.002 0.117 0.010 0.011 -0.001
-0.013 0.078 -0.002 -0.007 0.083 -0.027
0.027 0.050 -0.055 0.091 0.017 -0.037 AGL
-0.011 -0.030 -0.025 -0.044 -0.034 -0.101 AGL 0.00315683607
0.040 0.091 0.021 0.053 0.170 0.066 ANZ 0.00140477991
0.068 0.052 0.040 0.020 -0.012 0.017 BHP -0.0002028652
0.059 0.079 0.004 0.057 0.120 0.010 BRAMBLES 0.00124679056
-0.009 -0.056 0.000 0.028 -0.096 0.026 DELTA 0.00188585961
0.019 -0.048 -0.039 0.036 -0.036 0.007 NEWS CORP -6.1605315E-06
-0.019 -0.007 0.075 0.034 0.000 -0.004
-0.025 -0.053 -0.035 0.009 0.069 -0.058
0.023 0.045 -0.070 0.005 -0.044 0.026 n n
0.034
0.115
0.063
0.033
-0.031
0.011
0.007
0.062
-0.049
-0.023
-0.098
0.037 σ 2P=∑ ∑ W i W j COV (i , j)OR
0.115 0.094 -0.059 0.085 -0.073 -0.016
0.018 0.019 0.034 0.020 -0.143 0.083
i=1 j=1
-0.010 0.095 0.076 0.029 -0.021 -0.089 n n n
σ P =∑ W 2 σ i + ∑ ∑ W i W j COV (i , j )
0.045 -0.017 -0.006 0.142 0.004 0.015 2 2
-0.025 0.014 0.003 -0.092 -0.072 0.000
0.056 0.000 -0.052 -0.027 -0.018 0.033
i=1 i i=1 ,i≠ j j=1
-0.016 0.005 -0.003 -0.034 -0.126 -0.133
0.014 0.014 0.064 0.106 0.154 -0.007
0.065 0.098 0.043 0.019 0.000 -0.014
-0.004 0.101 0.033 0.107 0.018 0.089
0.077 0.084 -0.064 0.061 -0.190 -0.028
0.020 -0.089 -0.064 -0.036 -0.061 -0.006
0.095 0.153 -0.059 0.073 -0.018 0.155
0.013 -0.121 -0.123 -0.049 -0.273 -0.038
0.037 0.012 -0.048 0.025 0.083 0.148
0.086 0.010 0.061 0.087 0.246 0.083
0.046 -0.028 0.013 -0.025 0.198 0.085
0.046 0.024 0.005 0.037 -0.026 0.017
0.047 0.000 0.065 0.021 0.048 0.066
-0.069 0.059 -0.028 0.005 0.141 0.031
-0.018 0.060 -0.088 0.025 -0.159 -0.042
-0.099 -0.018 -0.002 -0.022 0.042 0.338
0.079 -0.042 -0.022 0.098 -0.030 -0.090
-0.090 -0.172 -0.097 -0.005 -0.161 -0.109
0.171 0.022 0.002 0.053 0.466 0.018
-0.009 0.014 0.126 -0.037 0.110 0.005
0.029 0.149 -0.070 0.112 -0.092 0.022
-0.008 0.016 -0.050 0.019 0.042 -0.035
-0.051 -0.020 -0.028 0.088 -0.004 0.069
-0.053 -0.007 0.035 -0.052 -0.036 -0.019
0.065 0.101 0.112 -0.022 -0.063 0.033
-0.049 0.045 0.270 0.108 0.054 0.085
-0.091 -0.054 -0.094 -0.081 -0.047 -0.005
-0.055 -0.019 0.130 -0.024 -0.040 0.023
ll columns (A to F).
Variance-Covariance Matrix
0.004086924265627
0.00089933778173 0.00511297497
0.001341613118362 0.0004534125 0.002877750528627
0.001275517100458 0.00280494508 0.001458925228572 0.0144351766782148
0.000891600509403 0.00103423413 0.000587260107565 0.00279355200023048 0.0059727168298857
OV (i , j)OR
n
∑ ∑ W i W j COV (i , j )
i≠ j j=1
Weights Expected
Share Names (W) Return (ER) ER * W Variance (V) (W^2)*V
AGL 1.67% 0.00% 0.31568% 0.00000%
ANZ 1.88% 0.00% 0.40869% 0.00000%
BHP 0.27% 0.00% 0.51130% 0.00000%
BRAMBLES 2.44% 0.00% 0.28778% 0.00000%
DELTA 0.27% 0.00% 1.44352% 0.00000%
NEWS CORP 1.31% 0.00% 0.59727% 0.00000%
0 0.00% 0.00000%
Variance-Covariance Matrix
15 COVARIANCE RELATIONSHIPS
0 0 0 0
Portfolio Portfolio Std.
Variance Deviation
0.00000% 0
n n
σ 2P=∑ ∑ W i W j COV (i , j)OR
i=1 j=1
n n n
2
σ P= ∑Wi 2
2 i+
σ ∑ ∑ W i W j COV (i , j )
i=1 i=1 ,i≠ j j=1
NEWS CORP
0.0059727168
0 = SUM = 0
Step Four: Set the solver Constraints
(i): The Target Cell (Is the cell which you wish to minimise or maximise)
(ii): Changing Cells (is the cells that contain the weights you wish SOLVER to find)
(iii): Subject to the Constraints (1) no short selling (2) invest 100% of wealth (3) The target monthly return
target monthly return
Weights Expected
Share Names (W) Return (ER) ER * W Variance (V) (W^2)*V
AGL 0.235721 0.0167 0.0039 0.0032 0.0002
ANZ 0 0.0188 0.0000 0.0041 0.0000
BHP 0.603703 0.0027 0.0016 0.0051 0.0019
BRAMBLES 0 0.0244 0.0000 0.0029 0.0000
DELTA 0.06169 0.0027 0.0002 0.0144 0.0001
NEWS CORP 0.098886 0.0131 0.0013 0.0060 0.0001
1.000000 0.007000 0.002152
Variance-Covariance Matrix
COVARIANCE
-1.58882E-06 0 0.0001662048 0
Syntax:C30*B32*B21
Portfolio Portfolio Std.
Variance Deviation
0.002516 0.050155
n n
σ 2P=∑ ∑ W i W j COV (i , j)OR
i=1 j=1
n n n
2
σ P= ∑Wi 2
2 i+
σ ∑ ∑ W i W j COV (i , j )
i=1 i=1 ,i≠ j j=1
NEWS CORP
0.0059727168
1.704151E-05
Efficient Set
Portfolio Std.Dev. Target Return
0.0674 0.0030
Minimum Variance Fron
0.0628 0.0040
0.0584 0.0050 0.0300
0.0542 0.0060
0.0503 0.0070 0.0250
0.0469 0.0080
0.0438 0.0090 0.0200
0.0414 0.0100
0.0387 0.0120
0.0374 0.0140 0.0150
0.0370 0.0150
0.0374 0.0160 0.0100
0.0388 0.0180
0.0413 0.0200 0.0050
0.0430 0.0210
0.0453 0.0220
0.0483 0.0230 0.0000
0.0517 0.0240 0.0350 0.0400 0.0450 0.0500 0.0550 0.0600 0.065
0.0536 0.0250
Create the
Minimum Variance Frontier using the
Chart functionality within Excel.
Minimum Variance Frontier
Minimum Variance
Frontier
Cov(i,asx)
AGL 0.00080859006
ANZ 0.00157411962
BHP 0.00159021188
BRAMBLES 0.0010439431
DELTA 0.00198787195
NEWS CORP 0.00104316335
Calculation of Beta using Regr
To Calculate the Beta, go to To
click on the Regression, follow
See results below (Beta is repr
Calculation of Beta
using Direct Method SUMMARY OUTPUT
Beta (i)
0.627108
1.220820 Regression Statistics
1.233301 Multiple R
0.809638 R Square
1.541709 Adjusted R
0.809033 Standard E
Observatio
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total
Coefficients
Intercept
X Variable
Calculation of Beta using Regression for Stocks
To Calculate the Beta, go to Tools and click on Data Analysis, then look for Regression.
click on the Regression, follow the necessary steps
See results below (Beta is represented by the X coefficient)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
0.400783
0.160627
0.14238
0.052583
48
df SS MS F Significance F
1 0.02434 0.02434 8.802816 0.004759
46 0.127189 0.002765
47 0.151528
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
0.01154 0.007785 1.482339 0.145069 -0.00413 0.02721 -0.00413 0.02721
0.627108 0.211364 2.966954 0.004759 0.201654 1.052562 0.201654 1.052562
Expected
Share Names Weights (W) Return (ER) ER * W Variance (V)
AGL 0.0526 0.0167 0.0009 0.0032
ANZ 0.0610 0.0188 0.0011 0.0041
BHP 0.0000 0.0027 0.0000 0.0051
BRAMBLES 0.3536 0.0244 0.0086 0.0029
DELTA 0.0000 0.0027 0.0000 0.0144
NEWS CORP 0.0346 0.0131 0.0005 0.0060
RISK FREE ASSET 0.4983 0.0058 0.0029 0.0000
1.000000 0.014000
Variance-Covariance Matrix
COVARIANCE
0.0150
Efficient Set
Portfolio Std.Dev. Target Return 0.0100
0.067380 0.003000
0.062779 0.004000
0.0050
0.0000
0.0000 0.0200 0.0400 0.0600
0.0150
0.0100
0.0144
0.0028 0.0060
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0
7.1754756E-06 0
0 0 0
Minimum Variance
Frontier
CML
CML