Winter's Model

Estemeted Average
Deseasonalized Demand without Seasonal
Period Quarter Demand Demand Season Seasonal Factor Factor
Intercept
107
1 Q1 98 110 0.89 1.0 109
2 Q2 106 113 0.94 0.94 112
3 Q3 109 116 116 0.94 1.03 114
4 Q4 133 121 119 1.12 1.03 118
5 Q1 130 125 122 1.07 0.98 122
6 Q2 116 126 125 0.93 0.94 125
7 Q3 133 125 128 1.04 1.02 128
8 Q4 116 128 131 0.89 1.05 129
9 Q1 138 131 134 1.03 0.99 133
10 Q2 130 136 137 0.95 0.94 136
11 Q3 147 140 140 1.05 1.02 139
12 Q4 141 142 143 0.99 1.02 142
13 Q1 144 146 146 0.99 1.00 145
14 Q2 142 152 149 0.95 0.94 148
15 Q3 165 152 1.09 1.03 152
16 Q4 173 155 1.12 1.01 157
17 158 1.00
18 161 0.95
19 164 1.04
20 167 1.03
 α 0.1 β 0.1 γ 0.2 Intercept

Forecasted Absolute Squared

Demand Error Error Error
Slope
2.98
2.87 109 11 11.34 128.65
2.87 105 -1 0.65 0.42
2.78 118 9 9.08 82.39
2.91 120 -13 13.21 174.58
3.04 118 -12 12.22 149.23
3.02 118 2 2.06 4.23
3.05 130 -3 3.17 10.06
2.84 137 21 21.49 461.86
2.91 131 -7 6.87 47.21
2.94 128 -2 2.38 5.67
2.99 142 -5 5.44 29.57
2.95 145 4 3.87 14.98
2.94 145 1 1.29 1.65
2.97 139 -3 2.53 6.39
3.06 155 -10 9.99 99.84
3.22 157 -16 16.01 256.23
160
154
173
175
Total
Squared
Error 1472.96
MSE 92.06
107 Slope 2.98
 Holt's Model
Forecasted Absolute Squared
Period Quarter Demand Level Trend Demand Error Error Error
107 2.98
1 Q1 98 109 2.86 110 12 11.98 143.52
2 Q2 106 111 2.80 112 6 5.64 31.83
3 Q3 109 113 2.75 114 5 4.88 23.83
4 Q4 133 118 2.92 116 -17 16.85 283.97
5 Q1 130 122 3.02 121 -9 9.24 85.43
6 Q2 116 124 2.93 125 9 8.70 75.64
7 Q3 133 127 2.99 127 -6 6.24 38.98
8 Q4 116 129 2.85 130 14 14.37 206.56
9 Q1 138 132 2.91 132 -6 6.22 38.66
10 Q2 130 135 2.86 135 5 5.31 28.24
11 Q3 147 139 2.95 138 -9 9.36 87.62
12 Q4 141 141 2.95 142 1 0.53 0.28
13 Q1 144 144 2.94 144 0 0.42 0.17
14 Q2 142 147 2.89 147 5 5.32 28.27
15 Q3 165 151 3.04 150 -15 15.33 234.91
16 Q4 173 156 3.23 154 -19 18.75 351.68
17 159
18 163
19 166
20 169
Total
Squared
Error 1659.61
MSE 103.73
α 0.1 β 0.1 Intercept 107 Slope 2.98
 Simple Exponential Smoothing
Absolute Squared
Period Quarter Demand Forecasted Demand Error Error Error
1 Q1 98 133 35 34.56 1194.57
2 Q2 106 129 23 23.11 533.90
3 Q3 109 127 18 17.80 316.68
4 Q4 133 125 -8 7.98 63.74
5 Q1 130 126 -4 4.19 17.52
6 Q2 116 126 10 10.23 104.71
7 Q3 133 125 -8 7.79 60.69
8 Q4 116 126 10 9.99 99.77
9 Q1 138 125 -13 13.01 169.26
10 Q2 130 126 -4 3.71 13.76
11 Q3 147 127 -20 20.34 413.64
12 Q4 141 129 -12 12.30 151.40
13 Q1 144 130 -14 14.07 198.08
14 Q2 142 131 -11 10.67 113.78
15 Q3 165 132 -33 32.60 1062.75
16 Q4 173 136 -37 37.34 1394.27
17 139
18 139
19 139
20 139
Total
Squared
Error 5908.53
MSE 369.28
α 0.1
Here we have used Simple exponential Smoothing Method, H
Model , Winter's Model for forecasting . To identify the best m
we have used Mean Squared Error(MSE) method.
According to Simple Exponential Smoothig Method, MSE is 3
According to Holt's Model , MSE is 103.73. According to Winte
Model, MSE is 92.06 .
We can see that Winter's Model's MSE is the lowest among a
will prefer Winter's Model becase the lowest the MSE the hig
preferable Model.
moothing Method, Holt's
To identify the best model
method.
ig Method, MSE is 369.28 .
3. According to Winter's

the lowest among all. So I

west the MSE the highest the