Provision Matrix (Simplified Approach)

Illustrative Example

0-30 Days 31 - 60 Days 61 - 90 Days 90 Days <

Current 59.04% 56.50% 53.77% 56.23%
0-30 Days 56.50% 53.77% 56.23%
31 - 60 Days 53.77% 56.23%
61 - 90 Days 56.23%
90 Days <

Current 0-30 Days 31 - 60 Days 61 - 90 Days

Jan-13 285,878
Feb-13 1,448,365 87,833
Mar-13 1,909,224 676,667 61,112
Apr-13 1,838,630 1,781,917 581,939 17,979
May-13 357,915 1,433,973 950,455 581,479
Jun-13 477,904 112,834 1,244,422 276,234
Jul-13 835,362 177,889 53,785 833,638
Aug-13 1,230,714 345,204 75,814 29,660
Sep-13 1,784,650 1,013,379 229,730 13,097
Oct-13 901,630 1,756,962 936,815 168,623
Nov-13 727,154 350,385 597,588 447,189
Dec-13 508,667 497,999 58,159 225,132
Jan-14 927,100 404,240 319,829 40,363
Feb-14 1,188,172 296,318 203,097 85,036
Mar-14 3,078,313 1,086,492 121,601 35,161
Apr-14 424,158 3,041,246 597,510 70,271
May-14 1,172,892 80,239 1,923,461 70,462
Jun-14 2,485,938 1,130,491 25,721 364,122
Jul-14 2,184,357 880,629 812,603 13,436
Aug-14 2,446,800 1,037,027 763,443 239,304
Sep-14 1,393,065 1,547,805 957,433 174,495
Oct-14 2,872,059 927,886 745,782 245,006
Nov-14 2,769,719 547,342 405,182 470,605
Dec-14 2,968,346 1,279,196 350,667 67,421
Jan-15 2,737,577 506,637 155,947 74,228
Feb-15 1,571,889 2,452,350 272,919 29,427
Mar-15 2,944,200 375,349 1,360,431 149,045
Apr-15 1,532,238 467,442 258,646 646,600
May-15 1,481,000 327,423 93,339 151,188
Jun-15 2,160,552 1,041,384 287,522 23,652
Jul-15 2,023,576 1,752,350 111,191 234,415
Aug-15 540,976 1,304,333 1,476,377 23,672
Sep-15 2,324,738 521,784 405,763 441,353
Oct-15 2,251,659 1,329,421 164,530 164,520
Nov-15 283,564 2,131,278 252,212 63,542
Dec-15 1,290,488 194,596 1,956,344 196,919
Jan-16 510,133 345,459 149,498 1,608,127
Feb-16 1,898,773 350,625 255,462 127,072
Mar-16 1,104,327 1,189,911 239,175 207,598
Apr-16 733,245 402,757 367,458 121,053
May-16 1,460,000 338,236 66,236 343,687
Jun-16 609,721 1,160,638 319,795 7,583
Jul-16 410,270 338,850 213,279 285,708
Aug-16 1,003,852 142,763 195,729 164,307
Sep-16 453,375 302,496 91,457 169,635
Oct-16 1,926,720 212,256 133,298 70,029
Nov-16 510,333 1,897,222 88,703 86,231
Dec-16 3,355,773 489,021 1,631,910 59,418
Jan-17 4,701,313 1,796,659 368,505 503,041
Feb-17 7,237,750 1,312,248 1,576,660 292,746
Mar-17 10,376,750 2,403,792 871,708 1,071,911
Apr-17 3,343,167 7,582,149 1,337,340 253,765
May-17 6,450,000 528,029 2,464,363 1,147,690
Jun-17 18,787,250 1,587,726 301,771 2,074,666
Jul-17 4,506,818 10,191,539 1,219,139 219,020
Aug-17 857,733 2,144,241 4,050,469 1,018,412
Sep-17 7,238,692 532,369 504,890 2,853,277
Oct-17 4,769,111 3,816,241 350,223 218,385
Nov-17 6,480,273 3,813,000 414,675 334,121
Dec-17 4,555,182 3,207,274 2,940,773 132,117
Jan-18 4,842,000 3,863,616 2,113,131 1,182,025
Feb-18 4,810,579 4,630,642 1,957,503 299,614
Mar-18 2,982,053 4,331,447 1,166,539 824,599
Apr-18 4,265,944 1,939,892 2,733,233 177,194
May-18 3,778,696 2,543,470 810,159 319,016
Jun-18 2,410,652 1,088,049 1,267,423 535,685
Jul-18 3,065,640 888,944 356,173 1,088,291
Aug-18 3,605,577 2,562,746 487,080 79,071
Sep-18 1,744,889 2,082,763 2,477,520 396,068
Oct-18 1,890,030 949,868 474,369 1,678,308
Nov-18 2,551,147 608,012 837,098 161,262
Dec-18 486,324 1,218,357 573,035 560,949
Jan-19 2,509,097 268,845 1,125,029 572,323
Feb-19 2,570,593 1,427,089 70,445 159,622
Mar-19 1,897,071 2,414,253 780,265 14,389
Apr-19 1,272,452 1,748,677 2,339,134 736,937
May-19 2,761,265 877,310 559,928 1,605,954
Jun-19 2,009,657 1,319,581 866,070 294,290
Jul-19 1,252,547 1,302,878 314,705 547,999
Aug-19 792,836 1,097,967 1,129,397 305,731
Sep-19 502,734 565,702 756,556 1,060,747
Oct-19 729,136 400,832 491,654 694,692
Nov-19 423,627 585,337 69,725 249,263
Dec-19 12,524,637 280,892 273,024 25,544
Write-off Provision Matrix
5.72% 0.58%
5.72% 0.98%
5.72% 1.73%
5.72% 3.22%
5.72% 5.72%

90 Days < Unrecovered 0-30 Days 31 - 60 Days 61 - 90 Days

Jan-13
Feb-13 30.72%
Mar-13 46.72% 69.58%
Apr-13 93.33% 86.00% 29.42%
9,610 764 May-13 77.99% 53.34% 99.92%
421,839 4,318 Jun-13 31.53% 86.78% 29.06%
155,326 7,615 Jul-13 37.22% 47.67% 66.99%
432,881 16,923 Aug-13 41.32% 42.62% 55.15%
3,930 40 Sep-13 82.34% 66.55% 17.28%
10,978 398 Oct-13 98.45% 92.44% 73.40%
104,579 11,457 Nov-13 38.86% 34.01% 47.74%
270,618 28,637 Dec-13 68.49% 16.60% 37.67%
100,331 2,899 Jan-14 79.47% 64.22% 69.40%
30,991 1,186 Feb-14 31.96% 50.24% 26.59%
15,980 1,486 Mar-14 91.44% 41.04% 17.31%
22,437 311 Apr-14 98.80% 54.99% 57.79%
34,493 2,126 May-14 18.92% 63.25% 11.79%
20,534 1,091 Jun-14 96.38% 32.06% 18.93%
118,802 6,298 Jul-14 35.42% 71.88% 52.24%
3,795 79 Aug-14 47.48% 86.69% 29.45%
39,960 2,272 Sep-14 63.26% 92.32% 22.86%
45,382 4,634 Oct-14 66.61% 48.18% 25.59%
215,142 7,438 Nov-14 19.06% 43.67% 63.10%
82,223 7,863 Dec-14 46.19% 64.07% 16.64%
40,908 4,121 Jan-15 17.07% 12.19% 21.17%
30,593 1,013 Feb-15 89.58% 53.87% 18.87%
16,824 763 Mar-15 23.88% 55.47% 54.61%
77,334 7,196 Apr-15 15.88% 68.91% 47.53%
190,741 10,950 May-15 21.37% 19.97% 58.45%
111,328 8,475 Jun-15 70.32% 87.81% 25.34%
11,564 542 Jul-15 81.11% 10.68% 81.53%
88,837 5,238 Aug-15 64.46% 84.25% 21.29%
10,281 186 Sep-15 96.45% 31.11% 29.89%
218,320 7,924 Oct-15 57.19% 31.53% 40.55%
87,125 5,914 Nov-15 94.65% 18.97% 38.62%
12,646 1,079 Dec-15 68.63% 91.79% 78.08%
121,871 5,283 Jan-16 26.77% 76.82% 82.20%
985,671 24,964 Feb-16 68.73% 73.95% 85.00%
52,562 2,026 Mar-16 62.67% 68.21% 81.26%
159,799 5,510 Apr-16 36.47% 30.88% 50.61%
93,447 3,995 May-16 46.13% 16.45% 93.53%
120,073 12,403 Jun-16 79.50% 94.55% 11.45%
5,276 263 Jul-16 55.57% 18.38% 89.34%
231,398 18,081 Aug-16 34.80% 57.76% 77.04%
92,683 4,012 Sep-16 30.13% 64.06% 86.67%
70,418 1,658 Oct-16 46.82% 44.07% 76.57%
24,180 1,505 Nov-16 98.47% 41.79% 64.69%
78,518 5,302 Dec-16 95.82% 86.02% 66.99%
48,497 791 Jan-17 53.54% 75.36% 30.83%
 262,060 8,393 Feb-17 27.91% 87.76% 79.44%
52,557 4,506 Mar-17 33.21% 66.43% 67.99%
913,338 86,973 Apr-17 73.07% 55.63% 29.11%
140,688 13,306 May-17 15.79% 32.50% 85.82%
876,847 21,805 Jun-17 24.62% 57.15% 84.19%
1,126,455 30,327 Jul-17 54.25% 76.79% 72.58%
206,738 6,668 Aug-17 47.58% 39.74% 83.54%
903,340 50,799 Sep-17 62.07% 23.55% 70.44%
2,305,894 224,262 Oct-17 52.72% 65.79% 43.25%
143,904 6,474 Nov-17 79.95% 10.87% 95.40%
241,775 15,469 Dec-17 49.49% 77.12% 31.86%
25,734 724 Jan-18 84.82% 65.89% 40.19%
239,734 20,391 Feb-18 95.63% 50.67% 14.18%
151,940 8,205 Mar-18 90.04% 25.19% 42.13%
762,321 35,987 Apr-18 65.05% 63.10% 15.19%
93,804 2,677 May-18 59.62% 41.76% 11.67%
65,000 4,122 Jun-18 28.79% 49.83% 66.12%
314,191 33,176 Jul-18 36.88% 32.74% 85.87%
148,346 10,717 Aug-18 83.60% 54.79% 22.20%
41,738 2,237 Sep-18 57.77% 96.67% 81.31%
319,552 31,589 Oct-18 54.44% 22.78% 67.74%
1,206,730 98,610 Nov-18 32.17% 88.13% 34.00%
52,900 4,354 Dec-18 47.76% 94.25% 67.01%
486,779 40,865 Jan-19 55.28% 92.34% 99.88%
315,654 7,403 Feb-19 56.88% 26.20% 14.19%
158,728 7,576 Mar-19 93.92% 54.68% 20.43%
8,611 447 Apr-19 92.18% 96.89% 94.45%
621,866 38,062 May-19 68.95% 32.02% 68.66%
1,315,242 79,055 Jun-19 47.79% 98.72% 52.56%
206,997 2,503 Jul-19 64.83% 23.85% 63.27%
258,023 12,465 Aug-19 87.66% 86.68% 97.15%
93,867 8,418 Sep-19 71.35% 68.91% 93.92%
1,025,521 75,427 Oct-19 79.73% 86.91% 91.82%
530,326 29,430 Nov-19 80.28% 17.40% 50.70%
195,388 14,509 Dec-19 66.31% 46.64% 36.64%
Average 59.04% 56.50% 53.77%
 0.0026724729
1

90 Days < Unrecovered Loss rates

1
1
1
2
53.45% 7.95% 0.27% 2
72.55% 1.02% 0.30% 2
56.23% 4.90% 0.40% 3
51.93% 3.91% 0.92% 3
13.25% 1.02% 0.01% 3
83.82% 3.63% 0.08% 4
62.02% 10.96% 1.37% 4
60.52% 10.58% 2.33% 4
44.57% 2.89% 0.16% 5
76.78% 3.83% 0.13% 5
18.79% 9.30% 0.20% 5
63.81% 1.39% 0.06% 6
49.09% 6.16% 0.23% 6
29.14% 5.31% 0.09% 6
32.63% 5.30% 0.20% 7
28.25% 2.08% 0.02% 7
16.70% 5.69% 0.19% 7
26.01% 10.21% 0.19% 8
87.81% 3.46% 0.34% 8
17.47% 9.56% 0.32% 8
60.68% 10.07% 0.30% 9
41.21% 3.31% 0.04% 9
57.17% 4.54% 0.03% 9
51.89% 9.31% 0.24% 10
29.50% 5.74% 0.40% 10
73.64% 7.61% 0.54% 10
48.89% 4.69% 0.02% 11
37.90% 5.90% 0.34% 11
43.43% 1.81% 0.01% 11
49.47% 3.63% 0.37% 12
52.96% 6.79% 0.29% 12
19.90% 8.53% 0.20% 12
61.89% 4.33% 0.23% 13
61.29% 2.53% 1.11% 13
41.36% 3.85% 0.71% 13
76.98% 3.45% 0.43% 14
77.20% 4.28% 0.78% 14
34.94% 10.33% 0.65% 14
69.58% 4.98% 0.02% 15
80.99% 7.81% 2.47% 15
56.41% 4.33% 0.27% 15
41.51% 2.35% 0.27% 16
34.53% 6.22% 0.37% 16
91.06% 6.75% 0.53% 16
81.62% 1.63% 0.17% 17
52.10% 3.20% 0.44% 17
17.95% 8.57% 0.88% 17
85.21% 9.52% 2.59% 18
55.44% 9.46% 0.28% 18
76.40% 2.49% 0.30% 18
54.30% 2.69% 0.29% 19
94.39% 3.23% 0.20% 19
88.70% 5.62% 0.79% 19
80.82% 9.73% 1.19% 20
65.89% 4.50% 0.14% 20
72.36% 6.40% 1.80% 20
19.48% 2.81% 0.01% 21
20.28% 8.51% 0.43% 21
50.71% 5.40% 0.13% 21
92.45% 4.72% 0.79% 22
52.94% 2.85% 0.06% 22
20.38% 6.34% 0.09% 22
58.65% 10.56% 1.11% 23
13.63% 7.22% 0.25% 23
52.79% 5.36% 0.06% 23
80.68% 9.89% 1.31% 24
71.90% 8.17% 3.22% 24
32.80% 8.23% 0.12% 24
86.78% 8.39% 2.34% 25
55.15% 2.35% 0.39% 25
99.44% 4.77% 0.30% 25
59.84% 5.19% 0.09% 26
84.39% 6.12% 1.52% 26
81.90% 6.01% 3.08% 26
70.34% 1.21% 0.13% 27
47.08% 4.83% 0.98% 27
30.70% 8.97% 0.30% 27
96.68% 7.35% 3.75% 28
76.34% 5.55% 2.35% 28
78.39% 7.43% 1.83% 28
56.23% 5.72% 0.65%
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9372992811
R Square 0.8785299423
Adjusted R Square 0.8684074375
Standard Error 0.0021209822
Observations 27

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 0.00078085902 0.0003904295 86.78977769 1.0318839E-11
Residual 24 0.00010796558 4.4985656E-06
Total 26 0.0008888246

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Intercept -0.0013222158 0.00072592289 -1.8214273211 0.081030955 -0.002820447 0.000176015 -0.002820447
Unemployment rate 0.1736798435 0.03861695803 4.4975019361 0.000149053 0.0939783594 0.253381328 0.0939783594
Inflation Rate 0.1417444345 0.03342946622 4.240104629 0.000286774 0.0727494072 0.210739462 0.0727494072
 Upper 95.0%
0.0001760154
0.2533813277
0.2107394617
Provision Matrix (Simplified Approach)
Illustrative Example

# Date Loss rates Unemployment rate Inflation Rate

2 30-Jun-13 0.28269% 0.85% 1.70%
3 30-Sep-13 0.44348% 2.22% 1.77%
4 31-Dec-13 1.26055% 3.78% 5.04%
5 31-Mar-14 0.16611% 0.83% 1.33%
6 30-Jun-14 0.12743% 0.64% 0.51%
7 30-Sep-14 0.13898% 0.42% 0.56%
8 31-Dec-14 0.28276% 0.85% 1.13%
9 31-Mar-15 0.11955% 0.48% 0.48%
10 30-Jun-15 0.39386% 1.97% 2.36%
11 30-Sep-15 0.12427% 0.37% 0.87%
12 31-Dec-15 0.28616% 1.14% 1.14%
13 31-Mar-16 0.68347% 2.05% 5.47%
14 30-Jun-16 0.62110% 3.11% 4.35%
15 30-Sep-16 0.92150% 1.84% 5.53%
16 31-Dec-16 0.38897% 0.78% 3.11%
17 31-Mar-17 0.49768% 2.49% 2.99%
18 30-Jun-17 1.05868% 4.23% 3.18%
19 30-Sep-17 0.42643% 1.28% 2.99%
20 31-Dec-17 1.04694% 3.14% 3.14%
21 31-Mar-18 0.18806% 0.56% 1.50%
22 30-Jun-18 0.31033% 0.93% 0.93%
23 30-Sep-18 0.47431% 2.37% 1.42%
24 31-Dec-18 1.54926% 6.20% 6.20%
25 31-Mar-19 1.01021% 3.03% 4.04%
26 30-Jun-19 1.56141% 6.25% 4.68%
27 30-Sep-19 0.47214% 1.89% 1.89%
28 31-Dec-19 2.64428% 5.29% 7.93%
Provision Matrix (Simplified Approach)
Illustrative Example
Provision Matrix (Simplified Approach)
Illustrative Example

Summary of regression analysis

Loss Rate 0.65%
Variable Intercept Unemployment Rate Inflation Rate
Coefficient (0.001322) 0.173680 0.141744

Forecasted macroeconomic variable

Variables Unemployment Rate Inflation Rate Overlay estimation
Cases Raw Raw FL Rate Overlay
Base 2.50% 3.10% 0.741% 1.14

Expected Loss Calculation

DPD Loss Rate Coefficient Forward-looking loss Outstanding
balance
CURRENT 0.58% 1.14 0.66% 3,078,313
1-30 DPD 0.98% 1.14 1.11% 1,086,492
31-60 DPD 1.73% 1.14 1.97% 121,601
61-90 DPD 3.22% 1.14 3.66% 35,161
90< DPD 5.72% 1.14 6.50% 15,980
TOTAL

12,524,636.67
12524636.666667
280892
273024
25544
195388
14509
0
Computed ECL
20,192
12,071
2,391
1,286
1,039
36,980

280,892.00 273,024.00 25,544.00 195,388.00 14,509.00 -