Month/ Year January February March April May June

2013
Starting 120,816.00 125,871 120,415 132,696 125,386 124,197
Shipped 26,203 33,738 18,977 40,057 33,429 18,070
Production 31,258 28,281 31,258 32,747 32,240 29,770
Ending 125,871 120,415 132,696 125,386 124,197 135,897

2014
Starting 125,767 131,395 126,075 139,201 132,010 130,192
Shipped 27,135 34,962 19,637 41,514 34,581 18,685
Production 32,763 29,642 32,763 34,323 32,763 32,763
Ending 131,395 126,075 139,201 132,010 130,192 144,269

Alpha
0.171

Date Demand Ft erro erro square APE

01/2013 125,871
02/2013 120,415 125,871 5,456 29,771,054 4.53%
03/2013 132,696 124,938 7,758 60,187,947 5.85%
04/2013 125,386 126,265 879 772,116 0.70%
05/2013 124,197 126,114 1,917 3,675,780 1.54%
06/2013 135,897 125,787 10,110 102,221,634 7.44%
07/2013 121,361 127,515 6,155 37,878,809 5.07%
08/2013 141,836 126,463 15,373 236,336,789 10.84%
09/2013 129,436 129,092 344 118,529 0.27%
10/2013 131,764 129,151 2,613 6,829,084 1.98%
11/2013 127,822 129,598 1,775 3,151,513 1.39% 160,000
12/2013 125,767 129,294 3,527 12,438,194 2.80%
140,000
01/2014 131,395 128,691 2,704 7,311,771 2.06%
02/2014 126,075 129,153 3,078 9,473,401 2.44% 120,000

03/2014 139,201 128,627 10,574 111,812,887 7.60% 100,000

04/2014 132,010 130,435 1,575 2,480,124 1.19%
80,000
05/2014 130,192 130,704 513 262,887 0.39%
06/2014 144,269 130,617 13,653 186,395,724 9.46% 60,000

07/2014 129,639 132,951 3,312 10,969,777 2.55% 40,000

08/2014 149,643 132,385 17,258 297,842,662 11.53%
20,000
09/2014 138,731 135,336 3,395 11,524,068 2.45%
10/2014 141,597 135,917 5,680 32,263,279 4.01% 0
11/2014 136,333 136,888 555 307,886 0.41% 13 13 13 13 13
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /2
12/2014 136,058 136,793 735 540,284 0.54% 01 02 03 04 05 06

5,171 50,633,313 3.78%

 July August September October November December

135,897 121,361 141,836 129,436 131,764 127,822

47,283 1,852 42,170 30,419 32,223 22,894
32,747 22,327 29,770 32,747 28,281 20,839
121,361 141,836 129,436 131,764 127,822 125,767

144,269 129,639 149,643 138,731 141,597 136,333

48,953 1,838 43,675 31,457 33,346 23,677
34,323 21,842 32,763 34,323 28,082 23,402
129,639 149,643 138,731 141,597 136,333 136,058

Alpha
0.171

Chart Title
160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Demand Ft