PL Sholz

PLANILLA DE PRECIPITACIONES TOTALES ESTACIÓN PORCON
ALTITUD PORCON 3140 m.s.n.m
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN

1963 65.9 129.0 113.4 97.4 29.7 18.7
1964 56.5 79.7 270.7 100.8 28.4 15.1
1965 212.0 123.8 155.4 126.6 28.1 15.8
1966 111.3 77.9 124.3 122.0 57.2 16.4
1967 204.2 214.6 114.6 100.6 57.4 9.9
1968 103.8 129.1 99.8 112.8 26.8 19.0
1969 78.3 118.5 128.5 123.8 12.8 23.4
1970 124.6 71.9 149.4 122.9 46.6 22.2
1971 104.4 153.7 256.0 116.8 19.6 24.5
1972 99.8 109.6 57.0 110.1 30.2 11.4
1973 163.4 114.1 159.4 113.7 40.4 26.2
1974 111.7 198.4 115.3 94.6 14.3 23.4
1975 249.5 221.7 155.2 104.2 90.5 26.9
1976 237.8 152.1 150.4 101.3 82.0 30.6
1977 143.8 187.7 129.5 98.7 58.4 15.7
1978 39.3 88.8 101.3 123.5 102.6 10.0
1979 136.4 110.3 214.2 124.3 44.6 21.0
1980 94.5 82.8 134.6 90.9 27.0 13.0
1981 100.3 239.3 149.3 115.8 39.6 29.9
1982 106.8 145.1 122.9 94.1 62.4 20.3
1983 152.7 112.3 172.3 155.9 50.3 16.7
1984 59.6 385.2 175.8 150.7 112.2 27.3
1985 73.6 100.1 66.8 88.3 86.9 1.9
1986 190.8 99.4 157.0 137.5 48.6 0.1
1987 183.3 107.2 114.2 120.0 46.1 6.7
1988 206.4 155.7 71.4 199.7 32.5 19.5
1989 214.2 224.9 170.7 155.7 33.3 35.8
1990 184.6 141.8 77.2 87.1 50.7 41.6
1991 72.9 140.3 219.2 117.7 19.7 15.9
1992 80.2 58.1 122.0 92.4 57.5 24.9
1993 81.0 94.7 302.5 146.6 45.8 6.0
1994 178.6 168.0 236.2 200.3 50.8 11.6
1995 130.8 242.7 113.9 78.9 54.5 20.8
1996 92.1 130.0 133.9 92.1 55.8 50.0
1997 102.5 248.2 65.9 115.6 44.8 37.0
1998 200.0 223.7 288.5 109.7 55.3 24.5
1999 163.6 343.3 120.5 119.0 81.5 28.3
2000 90.6 235.7 160.7 127.4 65.9 23.9
Promedio 131.6 156.8 149.2 118.1 49.8 20.7
Ta= 9.44 °C
L= 578.061619
P= 1068.39836
D= 514.271407
C= 0.518652
PLANILLA DE PRECIPITACIONES EFECTIVAS ESTACIÓN PORCON

ALTITUD PORCON 3140 m.s.n.m

1963 34.2 66.9 58.8 50.5 15.4 9.7
1964 29.3 41.3 140.4 52.3 14.7 7.8
1965 109.9 64.2 80.6 65.7 14.6 8.2
1966 57.7 40.4 64.5 63.3 29.7 8.5
1967 105.9 111.3 59.5 52.2 29.8 5.1
1968 53.9 67.0 51.8 58.5 13.9 9.9
1969 40.6 61.4 66.7 64.2 6.6 12.1
1970 64.6 37.3 77.5 63.7 24.2 11.5
1971 54.2 79.7 132.8 60.6 10.1 12.7
1972 51.8 56.8 29.6 57.1 15.6 5.9
1973 84.7 59.2 82.7 59.0 21.0 13.6
1974 57.9 102.9 59.8 49.1 7.4 12.1
1975 129.4 115.0 80.5 54.1 46.9 14.0
1976 123.4 78.9 78.0 52.5 42.5 15.9
1977 74.6 97.3 67.1 51.2 30.3 8.1
1978 20.4 46.0 52.5 64.0 53.2 5.2
1979 70.7 57.2 111.1 64.4 23.1 10.9
1980 49.0 42.9 69.8 47.1 14.0 6.7
1981 52.0 124.1 77.5 60.1 20.5 15.5
1982 55.4 75.3 63.7 48.8 32.4 10.6
1983 79.2 58.3 89.3 80.8 26.1 8.7
1984 30.9 199.8 91.2 78.1 58.2 14.2
1985 38.2 51.9 34.6 45.8 45.1 1.0
1986 98.9 51.6 81.5 71.3 25.2 0.1
1987 95.1 55.6 59.2 62.2 23.9 3.5
1988 107.1 80.8 37.0 103.6 16.8 10.1
1989 111.1 116.7 88.5 80.7 17.3 18.6
1990 95.7 73.6 40.0 45.2 26.3 21.6
1991 37.8 72.8 113.7 61.1 10.2 8.2
1992 41.6 30.1 63.3 47.9 29.8 12.9
1993 42.0 49.1 156.9 76.0 23.8 3.1
1994 92.7 87.1 122.5 103.9 26.3 6.0
1995 67.8 125.9 59.1 40.9 28.3 10.8
1996 47.7 67.4 69.4 47.8 28.9 25.9
1997 53.2 128.7 34.2 60.0 23.2 19.2
1998 103.7 116.0 149.6 56.9 28.7 12.7
1999 84.9 178.0 62.5 61.7 42.3 14.7
2000 47.0 122.3 83.4 66.1 34.2 12.4
PROMEDIO 68.3 81.3 77.4 61.3 25.8 10.7
LES ESTACIÓN PORCON
JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC

15.0 43.6 79.9 150.7 94.0 230.0
4.3 37.5 30.0 122.7 99.2 163.4
5.9 39.5 31.4 146.8 91.3 68.8
9.2 21.0 32.4 135.1 107.8 53.0
31.2 13.6 48.7 146.9 90.9 70.9
2.9 23.6 83.5 108.1 129.8 104.8
1.6 18.8 39.8 119.0 145.2 195.6
4.6 7.9 39.5 156.3 125.5 88.2
19.8 19.3 53.2 133.0 127.2 100.5
4.8 23.8 58.5 115.9 130.2 84.3
10.1 20.2 108.2 98.9 136.7 106.3
6.9 15.9 81.2 93.3 92.4 105.0
19.3 28.0 63.0 141.7 129.1 67.7
7.8 10.0 39.8 92.4 120.4 101.0
14.9 16.1 55.9 92.2 99.2 97.8
13.9 15.9 50.4 116.7 117.7 85.1
17.6 37.9 99.7 72.1 95.1 72.1
2.5 22.4 36.6 169.6 176.3 89.8
14.0 20.5 25.5 146.0 117.9 151.0
3.7 13.1 89.0 171.1 134.5 180.5
8.4 11.5 45.5 98.7 90.8 185.1
32.3 31.0 50.2 186.9 111.8 149.1
1.8 27.8 77.7 70.2 59.2 136.3
2.1 48.8 10.6 125.3 110.9 129.4
19.3 29.4 76.7 94.5 120.8 86.2
2.8 4.5 52.6 116.8 107.6 96.1
9.8 19.1 82.0 190.5 106.3 10.8
11.3 6.4 28.8 172.3 196.9 54.3
7.8 14.7 39.3 90.9 124.2 131.3
6.0 26.7 63.7 123.7 127.0 177.4
10.2 4.7 86.6 173.8 139.1 176.2
13.6 7.6 38.5 74.9 114.2 128.3
44.1 36.8 56.7 78.4 86.7 95.6
18.2 45.0 51.9 85.1 82.6 66.3
31.0 14.7 74.6 87.1 137.5 136.4
18.3 47.5 40.7 112.2 43.8 70.9
28.3 14.3 114.8 80.2 129.0 111.6
8.7 24.9 87.3 70.2 101.6 161.5
12.7 22.7 58.5 120.0 114.5 113.6
PA 1068.4 mm
L = 300 + 25 〖 T 〗 _(a )
+ 0.05 T_a^3
D=
P/√(0.9+
(P/L)^2 )
TIVAS ESTACIÓN PORCON

C = (P
-D)/P
7.8 22.6 41.5 78.1 48.7 119.3
2.2 19.5 15.6 63.6 51.4 84.8
3.1 20.5 16.3 76.2 47.4 35.7
4.8 10.9 16.8 70.1 55.9 27.5
16.2 7.1 25.3 76.2 47.2 36.8
1.5 12.2 43.3 56.1 67.3 54.4
0.8 9.8 20.6 61.7 75.3 101.4
2.4 4.1 20.5 81.1 65.1 45.8
10.3 10.0 27.6 69.0 65.9 52.1
2.5 12.4 30.3 60.1 67.5 43.7
5.3 10.5 56.1 51.3 70.9 55.1
3.6 8.2 42.1 48.4 47.9 54.5
10.0 14.5 32.7 73.5 66.9 35.1
4.0 5.2 20.6 47.9 62.4 52.4
7.7 8.3 29.0 47.8 51.5 50.7
7.2 8.3 26.2 60.5 61.1 44.1
9.1 19.6 51.7 37.4 49.3 37.4
1.3 11.6 19.0 87.9 91.4 46.6
7.3 10.6 13.2 75.7 61.2 78.3
1.9 6.8 46.2 88.8 69.8 93.6
4.4 5.9 23.6 51.2 47.1 96.0
16.8 16.1 26.1 96.9 58.0 77.3
0.9 14.4 40.3 36.4 30.7 70.7
1.1 25.3 5.5 65.0 57.5 67.1
10.0 15.2 39.8 49.0 62.6 44.7
1.4 2.3 27.3 60.6 55.8 49.9
5.1 9.9 42.5 98.8 55.1 5.6
5.9 3.3 14.9 89.4 102.1 28.1
4.0 7.6 20.4 47.2 64.4 68.1
3.1 13.8 33.0 64.2 65.9 92.0
5.3 2.5 44.9 90.2 72.1 91.4
7.0 3.9 20.0 38.9 59.2 66.5
22.9 19.1 29.4 40.7 45.0 49.6
9.5 23.3 26.9 44.2 42.9 34.4
16.1 7.6 38.7 45.2 71.3 70.7
9.5 24.6 21.1 58.2 22.7 36.8
14.7 7.4 59.5 41.6 66.9 57.9
4.5 12.9 45.3 36.4 52.7 83.8
6.6 11.8 30.4 62.2 59.4 58.9
ECUACION DE BALANCE HIDRICO
Cm = Pi - Di + Gi - Ai
Calculo de la Retención (R):
Donde:
R: Retención de la cuenca, mm/año
Ca: Coeficiente de que varía de 15% a 30%
AR: Area de la cuenca, km2
LA: -750I+315, mm/año = Almacenamiento de acuíferos
I: Pendiente del cauce principal; I<= 15%
AL: Area de lagunas, km2
LL: 500, mm/año = Almacenamiento de lagunas y pantanos
AN: Area de Nevados, Km2
LN: 500, mm/año = Almacenamiento de nevados
R= 55.254 mm/año
Calculo de Gasto de Retención de la Cuenca (Gi):
Gi = R (bo/bm)
Donde:
R: Retención de la cuenca
bo: Relación entre la descarga del mes actual y del mes anterior
bm: Sumatoria de los boi = Suma de factores mensuales durante la estación de estiaje
boi: Qi/Qo = Relación entre el caudal del mes i y el caudal inicial
Coeficiente de Agotamiento:
Cuencas con agotamiento rápido. Retención entre 50 y 80 mm/año
α= 0.01913543
La relación de caudales del flujo base (bo):

Periodo de Estiaje Además:
Mes Dias Para:
May 31 bo = 0.5526 Mayo
Jun 30 bo = 0.3112 Junio

Jul 31 bo = 0.1720 Julio
Ago 31 bo = 0.0950 Agosto
Sep 30 bo = 0.0535 Septiembre
bm=∑bo
bm = 1.1843
Gasto de Retención en meses de estiaje: Gi = R (bo/bm)
G= 25.78 Mayo
G= 14.52 Junio
G= 8.02 Julio
G= 4.43 Agosto
G= 2.50 Septiembre
Calculo del Abastecimiento (A) durante la estación Lluviosa:
Ai = ai (R/100)
Ai : Abastecimiento mensual déficil de la precipitación efectiva, mm/año

ai : Coeficiente de abastecimiento (%)
R : Retención de la cuenca, mm/año
Valores del coeficiente de Abastecimiento ai en % para Región Cajamarca

Mes ai
Ene 20 A= 11.0508 Ene
Feb 25 A= 13.8135 Feb
Mar 35 A= 19.3389 Mar
Abr 0 A= 0 Abr
Oct 25 A= 13.8135 Oct
Nov -5 A= -2.7627 Nov
Dic 0 A= 0 Dic
Total 100
Generación de Caudales para el Año Promedio (Qm):
La Ecuación Básica del Balance Hídrico se simplifica de la forma siguiente:
CM = Qm = PEi + Gi - Ai
Tenemos:
PMP para el año Promedio (Promedio de los PP Totales, por mes):
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN
Promedio
131.6 156.8 149.2 118.1 49.8 20.7
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN

Promedio
68.3 81.3 77.4 61.3 25.8 10.7
Donde C = 0.52 (Coeficiente de Escorrentia)
Dias en el Qm (mm/mes)
Mes PMP (mm) PE (mm) G (mm) A (mm)
mes Generado
31 ENE 131.6 68.3 11.0508 57.2
28 FEB 156.8 81.3 13.8135 67.5
31 MAR 149.2 77.4 19.3389 58.0
30 ABR 118.1 61.3 0 61.3
31 MAY 49.8 25.8 25.78 51.6
30 JUN 20.7 10.7 14.52 25.2
31 JUL 12.7 6.6 8.02 14.6
31 AGO 22.7 11.8 4.43 16.2
30 SET 58.5 30.4 2.50 32.9
31 OCT 120.0 62.2 13.8135 48.4
30 NOV 114.5 59.4 -2.7627 62.1
31 DIC 113.6 58.9 0 58.9
HIDRICO
Ca = 0.2
AR = 74.54 km2
LA = 276.27 mm/año
I= 5.164 %
AL = 0 km2
LL = 500 mm/año
AN = 0 km2
LN = 500 mm/año
2.718281828
bo=
El de Jun * May *
iva, mm/año
n Cajamarca
REGIÓN
REGIÓN
Cusco
Huancavelica
Junín
Cajamarca

12.7 22.7 58.5 120.0 114.5 113.6

6.6 11.8 30.4 62.2 59.4 58.9
Qm (mm/mes)
Generado
57.2
67.5
58.0
61.3
51.6
25.2
14.6
16.2
32.9
48.4
62.1
58.9
74.54 Km2 74540000 m2
26.34 mm/mes 0.000878 m/dia
86400 1.016204E-08 m/seg
0.7574782407
e-α(t)
de Jun * May * e-α(t)
Meses del Año (ai)%

REGIÓN
REGIÓN
Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar
Cusco 0 5 35 40 20 0
Huancavelica 10 0 35 30 20 5
Junín 10 0 25 30 30 5
Cajamarca 25 -5 0 20 25 35
Fuente: (Scholz, L. 1980)
TOTAL
TOTAL
100
100
100
100
Resumen
Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correl 0.94613492
Coeficiente de dete 0.89517128
R^2 ajustado 0.87187601
Error típico 6.74518913
Observaciones 12
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 2 3496.68598 1748.34299 38.4271675 3.90986E-05
Residuos 9 409.478187 45.4975763
Total 11 3906.16416
Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Intercepción 8.05839013 5.37723152 1.4986132 0.16820365 -4.10575267 20.2225329
Variable X 1 0.34361651 0.13554984 2.53498281 0.0319729 0.03698147 0.65025155
Variable X 2 0.48187351 0.09360345 5.14803166 0.00060473 0.2701278 0.69361922
B1
B2
B3
r=
S=
Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%
-4.10575267 20.2225329
0.03698147 0.65025155
0.2701278 0.69361922
8.05839013
0.34361651
0.48187351
0.94613492
6.74518913
GENERACION DE CAUDALES CON MODELO ESTOCAS
Qt = B1 + B2 (Qt-1) + B3 (PEt) + z S√((1 - r^2 ) )
a b c axb bxc
Mes Qt Q (t-1) PEt
ENE 57.2 58.9 68.3 3372.64 4024.02
FEB 67.5 57.2 81.3 3863.61 4653.98
MAR 58.0 67.5 77.4 3919.68 5225.54
ABR 61.3 58.0 61.3 3556.89 3556.89
MAY 51.6 61.3 25.8 3160.83 1581.15
JUN 25.2 51.6 10.7 1302.38 553.36
JUL 14.6 25.2 6.6 369.50 166.93
AGO 16.2 14.6 11.8 237.41 172.53
SET 32.9 16.2 30.4 533.04 492.53
OCT 48.4 32.9 62.2 1591.42 2045.32
NOV 62.1 48.4 59.4 3009.43 2875.63
DIC 58.9 62.1 58.9 3662.65 3662.65
Promedio 46.2
Sumatoria 554.1 554.1 554.1 28579.5 29010.54
Q ̂= B1 + B2 (Qt-1) + B3 (PEt)

Mes Ô e e2
ENE 61.21 -3.99 15.933
FEB 66.91 0.61 0.373
MAR 68.55 -10.50 110.327
ABR 57.53 3.74 14.013
MAY 41.55 10.04 100.734
JUN 30.95 -5.71 32.552
JUL 19.92 -5.28 27.929
AGO
SET
18.77
28.26
-2.55
4.60
6.482
21.123
S_( 〖 Qt 〗 ^2 )
OCT 49.34 -0.91 0.832
[∑▒ 〖〖 Q_t 〗
S_( 〖 Qt 〗 ^2 )
NOV 53.31 8.83 77.902
[∑▒ 〖〖 Q_t 〗
DIC 57.81 1.13 1.278
Suma =∑e 409
S=
2
n = 12
√((∑▒e^2
Sqt2 355.11 (n -3))
S= 6.75
r = [1 - S^2/S_
^(1/2)
r= 0.93
Z = 2.41
Z = z (S)√((1 -
Qt = B1 + B2 (Qt-1) + B3 (PEt) + z S√((1 - r^2 ) )
CAUDALES GENERADOS POR EL METODO EST

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY
1963 57.81 58.14 51.54 48.87 28.49
1964 45.28 40.37 89.84 67.26 38.12
1965 85.29 69.46 71.43 64.99 35.93
1966 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
CAUDALES GENERADOS POR EL METODO ES

DIAS 31 28 31 30 31
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY
1963 1.6088
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
MODELO ESTOCASTICO
((1 - r^2 ) )
axc a2 b2 c2 a2-nQpro2
3906.163179 3273.86 3474.39 4660.58 ∑Qt =

5492.342881 4559.59 3273.86 6615.91
4492.16799 3369.58 4559.59 5988.75
3754.604507 3754.60 3369.58 3754.60 ∑ (Q t-1 Q t ) =
1331.103057 2660.96 3754.60 665.86
270.8338084 637.43 2660.96 115.07

96.76709692 214.19 637.43 43.72 ∑ ( PE t Q t ) =
191.2324176 263.15 214.19 138.97
997.6781305 1079.73 263.15 921.86
3014.626528 2345.62 1079.73 3874.45
3689.442981 3861.11 2345.62 3525.41
3474.394568 3474.39 3861.11 3474.39
30711.4 29494.2 29494.2 33779.6
554.1
28579.5
30711.36
B3
B2
〖 Qt 〗 ^2 ) = 1/(n-1 ) B1
▒ 〖〖 Q_t 〗 ^2 -n ((Q_t ) ̅ )^2 〗 ]

〖 Qt 〗 ^2 ) = 1/(n-1 )
▒ 〖〖 Q_t 〗 ^2 -n ((Q_t ) ̅ )^2 〗 ]
S= 554.1
28579.5
√((∑▒e^2 )/ 30711.4
(n -3))
= [1 - S^2/S_( 〖 Qt 〗 ^2 ) ]
(1/2)
Z = z (S)√((1 - r^2 ) )
(1 - r^2 ) )
ADOS POR EL METODO ESTOCASTICO (mm/mes)

JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
26.43 20.72 29.35 37.02 54.27 45.99 77.46
30.70 20.36 21.97 20.46 45.18 47.17 67.76
25.07 15.85 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
RADOS POR EL METODO ESTOCASTICO M3/seg

30 31 31 30 31 30 31
JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
Qt = 12 B1 + B2 ∑ Q t-1
+ B3 ∑ PE t
(Q t-1
Q t ) = B1 ∑ Q t-1
+ B2 ∑ (Q t-1
) 2 + B3 ∑ (Q t-1
PE t )
( PE t Q t ) = B1 ∑ PE t + B2 ∑ ( Q t-1
PE t ) + B3 ∑ (PE t ) 2
= 12 B1 + 554.126953 B2 +
= 554.126953 B1 + 29494.2209 B2 +
= 554.126953 B1 + 29010.5378 B2 +
= 0.4818735 Resumen
= 0.343617
= 8.0583901 Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación 0.946134917
Coeficiente de determinac 0.895171281
R^2 ajustado 0.87187601
Error típico 6.745189125
Observaciones 12
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresión 2
Residuos 9
Total 11
Coeficientes
b1 Intercepción 8.058390126
b2 Variable X 1 0.343616513
b3 Variable X 2 0.481873511
74.54 Km2 74540000 m2
57.81 mm/mes 0.001864838709677 m/dia
86400 86400 2.15837813620072E-08 m/seg
1.60885506272401
74.54 km2
t
)
) 2
554.126953 B3
29010.5378 B3
33779.6 B3
r
s
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
3496.685977 1748.342988 38.42716753 3.90986E-05
409.478187 45.49757634
3906.164164
Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%
5.377231518 1.498613199 0.168203649 -4.10575267 20.22253292 -4.10575267 20.22253292
0.135549839 2.534982814 0.031972901 0.036981473 0.650251553 0.036981473 0.650251553
0.093603447 5.148031656 0.000604733 0.270127802 0.69361922 0.270127802 0.69361922
CAUDALES GENERADOS POR EL METODO ESTOCASTIC
DIAS 31 28 31 30 31 30
1963 0.95240466 -0.84210114 -2.00594513 -0.5120728 -1.56303031 1.61295702
1964 -1.45822014 -1.31019533 0.10472604 1.30122316 -0.05820993 2.38738721
1965 0.40263672 0.47877393 0.2793297 0.3093669 -0.61162154 0.29671241
1966 -0.01564445 0.25412191 0.56541012 -0.4295805 -0.50163408 -0.71675458
1967 -2.60850356 0.06257778 -0.02834668 0.26456519 2.42327587 1.07027972
1968 0.947839 1.44267233 1.13898977 -1.32330115 -0.21175197 -0.03492914
1969 0.74695208 -1.36230938 -0.27448095 0.20291964 0.41202838 -1.22302481
1970 -0.78959943 0.75802063 0.09603809 0.54728162 1.64881385 -1.27681915
1971 0.47243475 -0.2864158 0.56200179 -2.02340743 1.28533429 -0.34869686
1972 0.90173216 1.32845798 0.53206122 -0.20580956 0.11858219 -1.25214683
1973 -0.09811401 0.12528744 -1.00235638 0.21887672 -0.23803523 0.09826749
1974 -1.50119831 -0.27464012 -1.71487955 0.08106213 -0.63110747 -0.29104172
1975 -1.01815658 1.15181592 0.05889888 0.80536893 1.45116701 0.0137311
1976 -1.7369257 -0.00784098 -0.63456582 -0.23921643 0.353009 0.03454602
1977 0.13886847 0.10595727 0.24678002 -0.54523866 -0.26789394 0.56406407
1978 1.67873623 -0.82628503 0.13794192 -1.6642025 1.123326 -0.84964995
1979 0.72151124 1.48303116 -0.88485876 0.93130666 -0.96268877 -0.10287977
1980 0.75659273 -0.40263672 -0.86812406 -0.37335553 -1.12505177 -0.37253585
1981 1.1512202 0.18397941 -0.59619879 0.58517799 -0.24425731 0.7325707
1982 2.15386535 -0.37434006 -0.69088287 1.74004526 2.93301127 0.88056822
1983 0.76856395 0.59729587 -0.55601049 -1.29944056 0.13076374 1.34094989
1984 -0.16688773 0.44515332 -0.21550818 0.5724246 -2.17292836 0.31820719
1985 -1.27113708 0.17014713 0.0249031 0.34918457 2.03723175 0.08428628
1986 -0.38799499 0.64809683 -2.55095074 0.867567 -0.3341006 -1.77002221
1987 -0.63746825 -1.86838406 0.24851602 -2.26922566 0.55913802 -0.17946832
1988 -0.12821829 0.39261863 -2.34111212 -0.08052439 0.54275461 -1.65270194
1989 0.39278348 -0.6987716 -0.68962095 1.440294 -0.49652272 1.36308245
1990 -0.87102535 -0.24843757 -0.45505772 -0.39303131 -1.54284862 0.28147724
1991 1.66849532 0.25767804 1.65842266 0.76763854 1.08243057 1.01751539
1992 -1.05241043 0.76979859 -1.33142294 -0.03607738 1.39111762 -0.10895747
1993 0.14249963 -0.05070206 1.46021648 1.82221356 -1.27388603 -0.64734195
1994 -0.03133096 1.17621312 -0.99029194 1.41611054 -0.27662622 0.12351393
1995 -1.08974291 0.1085732 -1.15330067 0.80600557 0.42756824 0.31917352
1996 0.30127239 -0.69925932 0.47483127 1.41673809 0.09235009 -1.01828618
1997 -0.44371745 0.5338245 -0.30183287 -2.46098352 -0.11912107 0.64941787
1998 1.37597908 0.26971748 0.91258471 0.97837074 0.78980747 0.10157237
1999 0.07507651 0.49617711 0.5455945 2.50431185 -1.14988779 -0.69847829
2000 0.25475401 -0.51233428 0.22263862 0.19893832 -0.00248633 -0.51608822
R EL METODO ESTOCASTICO M3/seg
31 31 30 31 30 31
-0.073926 1.35729351 -0.45751904 -1.72562977 -1.74004526 -1.61071512
0.28267209 -1.01777232 -1.1003317 -0.2364618 -0.49306436 1.09585926
-0.9575956 0.94424877 -1.093631 -0.99983026 -0.44051262 -0.39518113
-0.40496047 0.0182456 0.22083555 -1.52940629 0.45845354 0.37663767
1.90370884 0.26599082 1.82301847 -1.69846771 2.27122655 -1.17652007
0.47311914 0.85173724 -1.7641878 1.09071379 -0.48349762 -1.08146878
-0.47560206 0.36197889 -0.05966513 -1.10285782 -0.2235015 -1.32994046
-1.18188609 1.03173988 -0.72419198 -1.4997795 1.62087417 0.35016001
0.32690991 0.02643333 -0.18320065 0.55609917 -1.4047373 1.02589638
0.77062168 0.43386308 1.2830651 -1.1757561 -0.29639295 -0.50867357
-1.04182163 -0.14049192 -0.73938963 -0.75903927 0.22256017 0.69574753
0.95602218 -0.55529654 -0.34544655 0.77701998 -1.26005943 -0.21206461
1.34528364 -0.15851583 0.33038191 -0.68874783 0.82585302 0.04197091
-2.66536517 -0.95953283 -0.5080642 1.22821348 2.03117452 -0.85063675
0.92600658 2.01285729 0.03913897 -1.73900844 -1.25047336 -0.46509285
-0.67149131 -0.74099944 0.30575848 0.67715746 -1.24033704 -0.47329081
1.20291133 -0.24102746 1.05788331 0.7360768 1.11047939 0.38840881
0.04825097 0.07860649 -0.19878257 -1.06056405 0.77877985 2.33874744
0.07860649 1.20117875 0.67446535 -0.50780386 1.28080501 0.51285724
0.39807787 0.16060767 -0.99731096 1.83114025 0.19698859 0.53047529
-1.34547463 -2.01576768 0.31265927 0.50606332 -1.02900685 -0.26987664
-0.17806883 -0.98084229 1.11602276 -0.03056584 0.17581556 0.18032324
-0.31933382 -1.3815179 0.05836341 -0.78584435 -0.07246854 -1.28219654
0.50528115 -1.58333023 0.08597453 -0.70062697 0.43680643 -0.44582976
-0.24165729 1.07900178 0.15921387 -1.30158014 0.02911179 1.18126991
0.39179213 -1.89719685 0.24457222 0.08958523 -1.34000857 1.38291171
-0.71754584 -1.07381311 -0.06372829 0.92706614 0.70317128 -0.16999138
-0.61189894 0.5715242 0.16161493 0.22154154 1.56354872 0.61392939
1.51094355 0.94281631 -0.54435077 -1.30015451 0.47800199 0.30599949
0.82746851 -1.97975169 0.71883278 -0.5585116 1.52621396 -0.09065957
0.40811756 0.39171027 -0.96634267 -0.23583311 -2.103734 0.385769
-0.21175197 -0.95614269 -0.80272684 0.22044333 -0.70955366 0.24023961
1.1667953 0.11565589 -0.552443 -0.74210789 -1.00501438 1.08394488
-1.84817509 -0.38338158 0.26868634 0.01327294 -0.19402478 -0.02635716
0.56891395 0.28012437 1.77554284 1.03919319 0.49799382 -1.0764029
-0.98096734 -1.77259153 -0.11473048 0.74160425 0.16471631 -1.11531108
-0.23921643 0.60168986 0.73627689 0.91188895 -1.65150595 1.92037078
1.92376319 1.24597136 -0.48435822 -1.39515578 -0.10126541 -0.04365575

PL Sholz

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PLANILLA DE PRECIPITACIONES TOTALES ESTACIÓN PORCON

ALTITUD PORCON 3140 m.s.n.m

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN

PLANILLA DE PRECIPITACIONES EFECTIVAS ESTACIÓN PORCON

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN

JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC

TIVAS ESTACIÓN PORCON

Calculo de la Retención (R):

Calculo de Gasto de Retención de la Cuenca (Gi):

La relación de caudales del flujo base (bo):

May 31 bo = 0.5526 Mayo

Jun 30 bo = 0.3112 Junio

Gasto de Retención en meses de estiaje: Gi = R (bo/bm)

Calculo del Abastecimiento (A) durante la estación Lluviosa:

Ai : Abastecimiento mensual déficil de la precipitación efectiva, mm/año

Valores del coeficiente de Abastecimiento ai en % para Región Cajamarca

Generación de Caudales para el Año Promedio (Qm):

La Ecuación Básica del Balance Hídrico se simplifica de la forma siguiente:

ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN

Donde C = 0.52 (Coeficiente de Escorrentia)

JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC

JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC

26.34 mm/mes 0.000878 m/dia

86400 1.016204E-08 m/seg

Meses del Año (ai)%

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Qt = B1 + B2 (Qt-1) + B3 (PEt) + z S√((1 - r^2 ) )

Q ̂= B1 + B2 (Qt-1) + B3 (PEt)

Qt = B1 + B2 (Qt-1) + B3 (PEt) + z S√((1 - r^2 ) )

CAUDALES GENERADOS POR EL METODO EST

CAUDALES GENERADOS POR EL METODO ES

3906.163179 3273.86 3474.39 4660.58 ∑Qt =

30711.4 29494.2 29494.2 33779.6

▒ 〖〖 Q_t 〗 ^2 -n ((Q_t ) ̅ )^2 〗 ]

ADOS POR EL METODO ESTOCASTICO (mm/mes)

RADOS POR EL METODO ESTOCASTICO M3/seg

57.81 mm/mes 0.001864838709677 m/dia

86400 86400 2.15837813620072E-08 m/seg

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