Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
17 MARS 2011
SYNOPSIS
Actuellement les politiques de nationalisation dans les pays en voie de développement sont regardées avec
scepticisme par la majorité d'économistes, pendant que pour les médias et la communauté internationale, elles
représentent des méthodes populistes et non-viables utilisées par certains politiques pour rester dans le pouvoir.
Ce travail propose étudier un des cas de nationalisation plus particuliers du siècle XIX: le cas de la
nationalisation de l'industrie d'hydrocarbures en Bolivie. Le travail s'intéresse d'abord en connaître l'industrie et
son contexte pour pouvoir trouver une façon de compréhension plus économique du processus de nationalisation
prenant comme bas des travaux théoriques sur l'économie de la régulation et l'information, et des modèles liés à
l'économie politique.
INDEX
SYNOPSIS
(fr.)......................................................................................................................................................................
.....i
INDEX................................................................................................................................................................
......ii
INTRODUCTION
(fr.)..........................................................................................................................................iv
1. HYDROCARBONS IN CONTEXT 1
1.1. NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY 1
1.1.1. Overview and sources 1
1.1.2. The production chain of gas 1
1.1.3. World supply and demand 1
1.1.4. Prices 2
1.1.5. International trade 2
1.1.6. World reserves 3
1.1.7. Natural gas and other fuels 3
1.1.8 The South American regional market 3
3. HYDROCARBONS NATIONALIZATION 9
3.1. UNDERSTANDING NATIONALIZATION 9
3.1.1. The Socialist State view of nationalization 9
3.1.2. The principal-agent dilemma to understand transitional economies 9
3.1.2. An empirical economic political approach to understand nationalization 12
3.2. THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY AFTER NATIONALIZATION (2006-2011)
14
3.2.1. Natural gas production and trade after nationalization 14
3.2.2. New revenues and distribution 15
3.2.3. Allocation of hydrocarbon outputs and social benefits 15
3.2.4. Theoretical considerations 16
4. CONCLUSIONS 17
5. BIBLIOGRAPHY 19
6. APPENDIX
I.
OTHERS................................................................................................................................................
..
A. Public regulation versus public control
B. Matrix of nationalization
C. Guriev econometric results
II.
FIGURES...............................................................................................................................................
.......
II.
DIAGRAMS...........................................................................................................................................
.
III.
TABLES.................................................................................................................................................
.......
IV.
GRAPHICS............................................................................................................................................
......
INTRODUCTION
En 2003, le président bolivien Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada a signé un contrat appelé ‘’Pacific LNG’’ pour
exporter le gaz naturel du pays au Mexique et aux États-Unis par son arche ennemi, le Chili. Ceci est amené le
pays à une grevé généralisée principalement motivée par les groupes plus marginalisés de la société. La Bolivie,
le pays avec une des sources gazières plus importantes de la région a cause de son niveau de intégration régional
avec ses voisins et le riches réserves encore inexplorées venait d'une crise politique et institutionnelle de dix ans
motivée par les intérêts particuliers des élites associées avec les gouvernement et les grosses entreprises
multinationales qui avaient simplement approfondi l'inégalité dans le pays.
Le période 2004 au 2006 était caractérisé par une forte transition économique, politique et sociale dans lequel
l'élément de fond et de changement était la volonté de la majorité de la population pour nationaliser l'industrie
d'hydrocarbures, cela qui apporte les plus grands revenus au gouvernement. Alors, la Bolivie en plein siècle XXI
décidait nationaliser son entreprise clé. Cela nous impose plusieurs questions comme économistes. En premier
lieu, on se demande sur la viabilité d'un processus comme tel dans une industrie ou les grandes transnationales
ont montré être les plus efficients économiquement. Après, on se pose la question s'il existe quelque rationalité
économique et non seulement politique derrière d'un phénomène comme tel.
Ce travail intéresse à répondre à ces deux interrogations et autres. D'abord, on commencera par donner un bref
aperçu de l'industrie des hydrocarbures, toujours en se concentrant dans le gaz naturel, pour imaginer le contexte
auquel notre industrie doit s'affronter. Immédiatement, on passera à regarder des caractéristiques
socioéconomiques de base de la Bolivie. Après qu'on finisse avec ces deux tâches, on passera à montrer la
particularité de l'expérience de nationalisation bolivienne après et en avant du 2006 quand le président Evo
Morales a annoncé la politique officiellement. Pour comprendre la transition aussi sur une logique économique,
on essayera d'aborder le sujet de nationalisation en dehors du discours socialiste et sèchement politique, à partir
des travaux théoriques sur l'économie de la régulation et l'information, et quand même à partir des modèles
spécifiques liés à l'économie politique.
1. HYDROCARBONS IN CONTEXT
1.1.4. Prices
As the world market for natural gas is quite diversified in regional markets, it is difficult to speak in terms of a
single world price. Even though there is a trend for liberalization all over the world, natural gas markets are still
strongly regulated in many countries (e.g., Russia).
Price determination by public or private producers is quite complicated because it not only depends on the
specific costs of the natural production chain, but also on volatile market economic factors (e.g., the degree to
which the market is liberalized; expected economic growth), population changes, environmental legislation,
geographical factors (e.g., weather) and others. Nonetheless, according to the United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development (UNCTD, 2006), a simple understanding (with comparative purposes) of the gas price-
cost determination by a local industry could be done taking the three most important gas production associated
costs, as follows:
C=W+T+d
Where:
C: Price-cost per unit
W: wellhead price (the cost of natural gas itself or commodity cost) per unit
T: long-distance transportation cost per unit
d: local distribution cost per unit
It is important to specify that this price-cost (C) is different from the market price. The price-cost represents an
abbreviated approximation of the variables costs associated with the extraction of the resource. In modern
resource economics theory, the difference between the market price and the price-cost (C) is understood as the
rent generated by the resource generated (i.e.,, Rent = Market price – Price-cost).
On the other hand, even the differences of markets, the Henry Hub natural gas spot prices, which is a pricing
point traded on the New York Merchantile Exchange (NYMEX), could considered the most acceptable indicator
of the industry internationally today. It measures the price of natural gas in USD per British thermal unit
(MMBtu).
1.1.5. International trade
In general, world natural gas trade suggests a growth in OECD natural gas demand from non-OECD productors.
In the OECD bloc in the year 2007, according to EIA, all their members were net importers, except for Canada
and Australia (See figures No 5 and No 6). In future, projections show that only the US will attempt to be less
dependent on the international natural gas trade, reducing its demand from almost 4 Tcf in 2007 to less than 2
Tcf in 2035.
In the year 2007, in the group of non-OECD producers, we distinguish the importance of Russia as a net
exporter with more than 6 Tcf exported mainly to the European market. Other important net exporters were
Qatar, Iran, North and West Africa, and South America (mainly Venezuela). EIA projects that this situation will
persist toward the year 2035. Moreover, the projections show a fast growth in natural gas demand by China and
India, with both projected to become major net importers by 2035 (See figure No 7).
2.2.1. The natural gas and its importance for the country
The importance of natural gas for the country is related mainly to two complex aspects: one economic and the
other social. In the economic realm, the recent natural gas boom represents an opportunity of important short-
term fiscal revenues for the government and economic growth in a context where world economies recover from
the recent downturn and the demand for fuels is on the rise. Meanwhile, in the social aspect, natural gas is the
main factor of tension between the two recent identified groups which claim fair gas revenues distribution. We
refer to the eastern Bolivia which hold the majority of the rich lands in hydrocarbons and the western Bolivia
which claims for an egalitarian distribution of the resource revenues, also according to the population and
poverty of each region of the country.
Moreover, before closing this theoretical framework part it is important to know that the nationalization of
private property can be classified into the four categories: (i) formal expropriation, (ii) intervention, (iii) forced
sale and (ii) contract renegotiation. The nationalization process is usually accompanied by the payment of
compensation.
On other aspect, the main arguments against the SOE comes from the theory of Corporative Finances which
assures that under this type of organization there aren't important incentives for the maximization of enterprises
profits, the innovation and the free rider comportment (corruption) is stimulated.
Despite the strong inequalities and poverty of the country, the natural gas industry is well-organized and
competitive in the international market. Through the nationalization policy, the government sought that the
progress of the industry was also reflected in an improvement in the quality of life of the people and controlled,
by itself, the negative externalities generated. The new gas revenues have opened new opportunities to Bolivia,
such as a major investment in social programs, an egalitarian income distribution which also involves
municipalities and universities, and the possibility to develop an industrialization of the resource which will
generate new jobs and more revenues. Moreover, the nationalization has motivated the government to include
the environmental matter in the political agenda. The creation of the IBE and the Fondo Indigena are two clear
examples.
On the other hand, we can make two interesting microeconomic conclusions after this work. First, if the
government has show a trend to increase the taxes for the industry progressively, we ask ourselves, for the case
of the companies who renegotiated theirs contracts, which are theirs incentives to continue operating in the
country under that panorama. It can make us to suppose that the natural gas industry is a very profitable
business, so even with a very high taxation the companies can continue paying theirs marginal costs and
receiving important benefits. Secondly, the recent essay of the government to reduce the subsidies (2010)
suggests that Bolivia can't cover these costs even with the recent rise in commodity prices. It makes just three
years and the government sees that it is non-viable.
At this stage, we can distinguish that the Bolivian nationalization, in economic terms, does not follow a
precisely Socialist discourse. Although Morales won the presidency following such a discourse, we see that in
economics, Bolivia follows a likely social democratic discourse. As the reflected in the thesis of Garcia-Linera,
the new Bolivian experience starts from capitalism through a more inclusive economic model (in social terms).
For example, in the case of the nationalization it wasn't a forced expropriation, but an intervention and
renegotiation of the contracts, where the government sought to control the majority of shares of some
companies (e.g., Andina, Chaco and Transredes) and fixed new contracts with others (e.g., Petrobras, Repsol-
YPF and BG) to ensure a more important income from the gas industry. Moreover, the recent experience to
reduce subsidized prices is a clear example of the economic preoccupation of the government.
We want to make an important attention call related to our subject, because since Morales assumed the
presidency of the country in 2006, every economic initiative, especially nationalization, has been excessively
politicized by the South American media. Although Morales’ policies have a significant degree of populism, we
have certified that there is also an important economic logic behind them. In general, we feel that the Bolivian
economic policy more closely follows the Brazilian social democratic model of Lula than the Hugo Chavez or
Fidel Castro models. Today we can assure that it is a model of mixed economy, instead of a Socialist planned
economy.
Finally, in the year 2009 Morales was reelected president with 64.22% of the vote in the first round.
Nonetheless, there are still important socio-economic matters not completely solved such as eastern autonomy,
which was slightly accepted in the new Constitution approved in 2009, and others which need an immediate
solution, such as the coca cultivation. At this stage the context suggests that the key to integrate the traditional
Amazonian-Andean economy with the urban economy in a single socially inclusive capitalist model, as the
vice-president Alvaro Garcia-Linear said, is found in the strengthening of institutions through a clear legal
system where urban poor, miners, informal, coca cultivators, the wealthy, private enterprise, public firms and
the whole society could the limits of their rights in the economic machinery as Hernando de Soto (2000) would
say.
5. BIBLIOGRAPHY
ACEMOGLU D. & J. ROBINSON, 'A Theory of Political Transitions' (paper). US: MIT & University of
California-Berkeley, 1999.
AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE, 'Understanding Natural Gas Markets' (bulletin), American Petroleum
Institute, 2006.
ANDERSEN L. et al., 'Natural Gas and Inequality in Bolivia after Nationalization', Washington-La Paz:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies, 2006.
COETZEE C., 'The proposed nationalization of mines in South Africa – A critical assesstment', South Africa:
Provincial Treasury (Province of KwaZulu-Natal), 2010.
GAMARRA E., 'Bolivia on the Brick', New York: COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, 2007.
GARRON-BOZO M., 'El negocio del gas natural y los Impactos esperados en Bolivia', La Paz (Bolivia),
Unidad de Analisis de Politicas Sociales y Economicas (UDAPE), 2007.
GURIEV S. & A. KOTOTILIN, 'Determinants of Nationalization in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence
from Panel Data' (paper), US: New Economic School & MIT, 2009.
GURIEV, S. & W. MEGGINSON, 'Privatization: What have we learned?' (paper), St. Petersberg: ABCDE
Conference, 2005.
GUTIERREZ C., 'Analysis of Poverty and Inequality in Bolivia, 1999-2005: A Microsimulation Approach, The
Hague: Institute for Advanced Development Studies, 2008.
HALL V., 'Intermediate Microeconomics', US: W. W. Norton & Company; 5th edition (February 1, 1999).
Karl Marx (1818-1883), Course PHIL 329 (University of Waterloo), p. 192-225.
KAUP B., 'A Neoliberal Nationalization?: The Constraints on Natural-Gas-Led Development in Bolivia',
Department of Sociology and the Environmental Science and Policy Program at the College of William &
Mary: Latin American Perspective May 2010, p. 123-138.
MARTINEZ N., 'Bolivia’s Nationalization: Understanding the Process and Gauging the Results', Washington:
Institute for Policy Studies, 2007, p. 1-2.
MEDLOCK K. & P. HARTLEY, 'Exploiting Bolivia’s Natural Gas Resources', Rice University, 2010, p. 1-34.
MINISTERIO DE HIDROCARBUROS & ENERGIA, 'Balance Energetico Nacional 2000-2009', La Paz
(Bolivia): Estado Plurinacional de Bolivia, 2011.
MINISTERIO DE HIDROCARBUROS & ENERGIA, 'Reporte semanal de precios' (Bulletin), La Paz
(Bolivia): Estado Plurinacional de Bolivia, 3-11 March, 2011.
MINISTRIO DE HIDROCARBUROS & ENERGIA, 'De la nacionalizacion a la industrializacion' (Bullettin),
La Paz (Bolivia): Estado Plurinacional de Bolivia.
MOREY E., (5 March), 'An Introduction to Market Failures',
http://www.colorado.edu/economics/morey/4545/introductory/marketfailures.pdf.
Policy Research, 2008.
PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE CHILE (5 March), 'Abastecimiento de Gas Natural',
http://web.ing.puc.cl/~power/alumno07/gas/P01.htm.
SJOHOLM F., 'Stated Owned Enterprise and Equitazation in Vietnam' (paper), Stockholm:
Stockholm School of Economics, 2006.
STEFANONI P., 'Alvaro Garcia-Linera: Pensando Bolivia entre dos siglos', Buenos Aires, 2008.
THE WORLD BANK (5 March), 'Bolivia Data', http://data.worldbank.org/country/bolivia .
Theories of Regulation (5 March), http://poli.haifa.ac.il/~levi/regutheories.htm.
US. INTERNATIONAL INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION, 'International Energy Outlook 2010'
(Bulletin), Chapter 3.
VELASQUEZ-DONALSON C., 'Analysis of the Hydrocarbon Sector in Bolivia: How are the Gas and Oil
Revenues Distributed?', Washington: Institute for Advanced Development Studies, 2007.
WEISBROT M. & L. SANDOVAL, 'La distribución de los recursos naturales más importantes de Bolivia y los
conflictos autonómicos', Washington: Center for Economic and
YPFB, '2010 Ano de Inversion y Reactivacion' (bulletin), La Paz (Bolivia): Yacimiento Petroliferos Bolivianos,
2010.
YPFB, 'Boletin Estadistico Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos 2010', La Paz (Bolivia): Yacimiento
Petroliferos Bolivianos, 2011.
YPFB, 'Memoria Anual 2005', La Paz (Bolivia): Yacimiento Petroliferos Bolivianos, 2005.
YPFB, 'Plan de Inversiones YPFB Corporacion 2009-2015', La Paz (Bolivia): Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales
Bolivianos, 2009.
APPENDIX
I. OTHERS
Public regulation versus public control
*Under (8, 2) it would be a revolution (nationalization) and the new income for the two groups will be (0,4).
Guriev econometric results
Source: Determinants of Nationalization in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data'
II. FIGURES
Figure No 1 : Schematic geology of natural gas Figure No 2 : Non-OECD Asia natural gas
resources production, 1990-2005 (Tcf)
Source: US. Energy Information Admnistration Source: US. Energy Information Admnistration (2010)
Figure No 3 : Central and South America Figure No 4 : World natural gas consumption,
natural gas production 1990-2005 (Tcf) 2007-2035 (Tcf)
Source: US. Energy Information Admnistration (2010) Source: US. Energy Information Admnistration (2010)
Figure No 5 : OECD North America net Figure No 6 : OECD Asia natural gas trade,
natural gas trade, 2007-2035 (Tcf) 2007-2035 (Tcf)
Source: US. Energy Information Admnistration (2010) Source: US. Energy Information Admnistration (2010)
Figure No 7 : Non-OECD Asia net natural gas
trade, 2007-2035 (Tcf)
Figure No 11 : Bolivia's geology Figure No 12: Bolivia natural gas fields and
pipelines
Source: YPFB
III. DIAGRAMS
IV. TABLES
Table No 1 : Wolrd natural gas production by region and country of Reference case 2007-2005
(Tcf)
Source: Worldbank.org
Source: YPFB
Table No 4 : Natural gas production (MMcf/day), 2005
Table No 6 : Gross natural gas production and domestic consumption (kbep), 2000-2009
Source: YPFB
Source: YPFB
V. GRAPHICS
Graphic No 1 : Bolivia GDP evolution
Source: Economywatch.com
Source: Andersen et al. (Natural gas an inequality in Source: Christian Velasquez-Donalson (Analysis of the
Bolivia after nationalization) hydrocarbon sector in Bolivia)
30 000 000
25 000 000
20 000 000
GDP (Bs/.)
15 000 000
Hydrocarbons (Bs/.)
10 000 000
5 000 000
0
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: YPFB
Source: Christian Velasquez-Donalson (Analysis of the Source: Christian Velasquez-Donalson (Analysis of the
hydrocarbon sector in Bolivia) hydrocarbon sector in Bolivia)
Source: YPFB
Source: YPFB