Self Review 1

Month Revenue
Mar-18 $ 5,874
Apr-18 $ 7,651
May-18 $ 5,546 Etsy Revenue
Jun-18 $ 7,594 $9,000
Jul-18 $ 6,450 $8,000
Aug-18 $ 5,580 $7,000
Sep-18 $ 6,560
$6,000
Oct-18 $ 7,209
$5,000
Nov-18 $ 7,679
Dec-18 $ 5,192 $4,000

Jan-19 $ 7,177 $3,000

Feb-19 $ 7,693 $2,000
Mar-19 $ 7,232 $1,000
Apr-19 $ 7,742 $-
May-19 $ 7,142 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19
Jun-19 $ 6,227
Jul-19 $ 6,639

Four Period MAD

Month Revenue
Mar-18 $ 5,874
Apr-18 $ 7,651
May-18 $ 5,546
Jun-18 $ 7,594
Jul-18 $ 6,450 $ 6,666 $ 216
Aug-18 $ 5,580 $ 6,810 $ 1,230
Sep-18 $ 6,560 $ 6,293 $ 268
Oct-18 $ 7,209 $ 6,546 $ 663
Nov-18 $ 7,679 $ 6,450 $ 1,229
Dec-18 $ 5,192 $ 6,757 $ 1,565
Jan-19 $ 7,177 $ 6,660 $ 517
Feb-19 $ 7,693 $ 6,814 $ 879
Mar-19 $ 7,232 $ 6,935 $ 297
Apr-19 $ 7,742 $ 6,824 $ 919 $ 752
May-19 $ 7,142 $ 7,461 $ 319
Jun-19 $ 6,227 $ 7,452 $ 1,225
Jul-19 $ 6,639 $ 7,086 $ 447
$ 6,938 $ 7,689 $ 6,186

Eight Month MAD

Month Revenue
Mar-18 $ 5,874
Apr-18 $ 7,651
May-18 $ 5,546
Jun-18 $ 7,594
Jul-18 $ 6,450
Aug-18 $ 5,580
Sep-18 $ 6,560
Oct-18 $ 7,209
Nov-18 $ 7,679 $ 6,558 $ 1,121
Dec-18 $ 5,192 $ 6,784 $ 1,592
Jan-19 $ 7,177 $ 6,476 $ 701
Feb-19 $ 7,693 $ 6,680 $ 1,013
Mar-19 $ 7,232 $ 6,693 $ 540
Apr-19 $ 7,742 $ 6,790 $ 952
May-19 $ 7,142 $ 7,061 $ 82
Jun-19 $ 6,227 $ 7,133 $ 906
Jul-19 $ 6,639 $ 7,011 $ 372 $ 809
$ 6,881 $ 6,072 $ 7,689
Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19
Self Review 1

Month Revenue
Mar-18 $ 5,874
Apr-18 $ 7,651
May-18 $ 5,546 Etsy Revenue
Jun-18 $ 7,594 $9,000
Jul-18 $ 6,450 $8,000
Aug-18 $ 5,580 $7,000
Sep-18 $ 6,560
$6,000
Oct-18 $ 7,209
$5,000
Nov-18 $ 7,679
Dec-18 $ 5,192 $4,000

Jan-19 $ 7,177 $3,000

Feb-19 $ 7,693 $2,000
Mar-19 $ 7,232 $1,000
Apr-19 $ 7,742 $-
May-19 $ 7,142 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19
Jun-19 $ 6,227
Jul-19 $ 6,639

Smoothing Constant 0.2

Month Revenue
Mar-18 $ 5,874
Apr-18 $ 7,651 $ 5,874 $ 1,777 $ 1,777
May-18 $ 5,546 $ 6,229 $ -683 $ 683
Jun-18 $ 7,594 $ 6,093 $ 1,501 $ 1,501
Jul-18 $ 6,450 $ 6,393 $ 57 $ 57
Aug-18 $ 5,580 $ 6,404 $ -824 $ 824
Sep-18 $ 6,560 $ 6,240 $ 320 $ 320
Oct-18 $ 7,209 $ 6,304 $ 905 $ 905
Nov-18 $ 7,679 $ 6,485 $ 1,194 $ 1,194
Dec-18 $ 5,192 $ 6,724 $ -1,532 $ 1,532
Jan-19 $ 7,177 $ 6,417 $ 760 $ 760
Feb-19 $ 7,693 $ 6,569 $ 1,124 $ 1,124
Mar-19 $ 7,232 $ 6,794 $ 438 $ 438
Apr-19 $ 7,742 $ 6,882 $ 860 $ 860
May-19 $ 7,142 $ 7,054 $ 88 $ 88
Jun-19 $ 6,227 $ 7,071 $ -844 $ 844
Jul-19 $ 6,639 $ 6,902 $ -263 $ 263
$ 6,850 $ 823

Smoothing Constant 0.7

Month Revenue
Mar-18 $ 5,874
Apr-18 $ 7,651 $ 5,874 $ 1,777 $ 1,777
May-18 $ 5,546 $ 7,118 $ -1,572 $ 1,572
Jun-18 $ 7,594 $ 6,018 $ 1,576 $ 1,576
Jul-18 $ 6,450 $ 7,121 $ -671 $ 671
Aug-18 $ 5,580 $ 6,651 $ -1,071 $ 1,071
Sep-18 $ 6,560 $ 5,901 $ 659 $ 659
Oct-18 $ 7,209 $ 6,362 $ 847 $ 847
Nov-18 $ 7,679 $ 6,955 $ 724 $ 724
Dec-18 $ 5,192 $ 7,462 $ -2,270 $ 2,270
Jan-19 $ 7,177 $ 5,873 $ 1,304 $ 1,304
Feb-19 $ 7,693 $ 6,786 $ 907 $ 907
Mar-19 $ 7,232 $ 7,421 $ -189 $ 189
Apr-19 $ 7,742 $ 7,289 $ 453 $ 453
May-19 $ 7,142 $ 7,606 $ -464 $ 464
Jun-19 $ 6,227 $ 7,281 $ -1,054 $ 1,054
Jul-19 $ 6,639 $ 6,543 $ 96 $ 96
$ 6,610 $ 977
9 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19
 = 298,829 12426.7986325
Year Sales Forecast Error
1 $ 337,370 $ 311,256 26,114
2 $ 341,318 $ 323,683 17,635
3 $ 350,523 $ 336,110 14,413
4 $ 356,409 $ 348,537 7,872
5 $ 365,547 $ 360,963 4,584
6 $ 372,570 $ 373,390 820
7 $ 378,188 $ 385,817 7,629
8 $ 394,250 $ 398,244 3,994
9 $ 402,515 $ 410,671 8,156
10 $ 418,127 $ 423,097 4,970
11 $ 419,813 $ 435,524 15,711
12 $ 427,987 $ 447,951 19,964
13 $ 441,136 $ 460,378 19,242
14 $ 457,667 $ 472,805 15,138
15 $ 471,699 $ 485,231 13,532
16 $ 491,360 $ 497,658 6,298
17 $ 511,222 $ 510,085 1,137
18 $ 510,033 $ 522,512 12,479
19 $ 520,750 $ 534,939 14,189
20 $ 547,476 $ 547,365 111
21 $ 563,645 $ 559,792 3,853
22 $ 574,547 $ 572,219 2,328
23 $ 599,603 $ 584,646 14,957
24 $ 613,159 $ 597,073 16,086
25 $ 625,295 $ 609,499 15,796
26 $ 639,161 $ 621,926 17,235
27 $ 634,353 10,932
28 $ 646,780
29 $ 659,207
 Chart Title
$700,000

$600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Column B
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99056
R Square 0.98121
Adjusted R 0.980427
Standard E 13424.04
Observatio 26

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2.26E+11 2.26E+11 1253.279 3.149E-22
Residual 24 4.32E+09 1.8E+08
Total 25 2.3E+11

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
Intercept 298829.4 5421.001 55.12439 8.673E-27 287641 310017.8 287641 310017.8
X Variable 12426.8 351.0228 35.40169 3.149E-22 11702.32 13151.27 11702.32 13151.27
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.081706
R Square 0.006676
Adjusted R-0.048509
Standard E 23.98206
Observatio 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 69.57595 69.57595 0.120972 0.732016
Residual 18 10352.5 575.1391
Total 19 10422.08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
Intercept 103.3963 11.14042 9.281186 2.779E-08 79.99116 126.8015 79.99116 126.8015
X Variable -0.323459 0.929984 -0.347811 0.732016 -2.277283 1.630366 -2.277283 1.630366
Year Winter Spring Summer Fall
2015 117 80.7 129.6 76.1
2016 118.6 82.5 121.4 77
2017 114 84.3 119.1 75
2018 120.7 79.6 129.9 69.5
2019 125.2 80.2 127.6 72

103.3963 -0.323459
Seasonally Adjusted
2015 Winter 1 117 103.1 1.1 122.3
2015 Spring 2 80.7 102.7 0.8 83.6
2015 Summer 3 129.6 102.4 1.3 128.8
2015 Fall 4 76.1 102.1 0.7 75.8
2016 Winter 5 118.6 101.8 1.2 120.7
2016 Spring 6 82.5 101.5 0.8 82.5
2016 Summer 7 121.4 101.1 1.2 127.2
2016 Fall 8 77 100.8 0.8 74.9
2017 Winter 9 114 100.5 1.1 119.2
2017 Spring 10 84.3 100.2 0.8 81.5
2017 Summer 11 119.1 99.8 1.2 125.6
2017 Fall 12 75 99.5 0.8 73.9
2018 Winter 13 120.7 99.2 1.2 117.7
2018 Spring 14 79.6 98.9 0.8 80.4
2018 Summer 15 129.9 98.5 1.3 123.9
2018 Fall 16 69.5 98.2 0.7 72.9
2019 Winter 17 125.2 97.9 1.3 116.1
2019 Spring 18 80.2 97.6 0.8 79.4
2019 Summer 19 127.6 97.3 1.3 122.3
2019 Fall 20 72 96.9 0.7 72.0
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Average
Winter 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2
Spring 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Summer 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
Fall 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7