TD Loi de Weibull1

LOI DE WEIBULL
 t  
 1
 t  

  t  


f (t )    exp     F (t )  1  exp    
             
   
 t  


R(t )  exp    
    
 
 1
f (t )   t   
 (t )    
R(t )    
 1
MTBF  E (T )    1      A x
   x    t x 1e t dt
0
2
 2   1 
T   1     1     B
     
"E(t )"=" (1+" 1/" " ) =

  A
 t  


 exp    
    
 
 e dt
x 1  t
t
Exercice 1 :
Le dépouillement des différents fichiers historiques concernant des tubes à rayons X d’un équip
fonctionnant dans des conditions identiques a permis de constater 21 avaries.
Les TBF en heures ont été relevés et classés par ordre croissant : 570, 600, 640, 670, 700, 730, 7
1100, 1150, 1220, 1280, 1380, 1570.
Estimer la fonction de répartition.
Tracer les couples de points (TBF, F(t)) sur Excel avec les changements de variable qui s’impose
Déterminer par calcul la valeur de ϒ.
Effectuer alors la translation des points afin d’obtenir une droite.
En déduire les paramètres β et η.
Déterminer enfin la MTBF.
Sachant qu’un arrêt de cette équipement engendre un manque à gagner de 25.000 dhs et un ch
refroidissement de ce dernier coute 1500 dhs, calculer une période optimale de la maintenance
adopter pour cet équipement de radiologie.
t RANG TBF ln(t-ϒ) F(i) Rt) ln(ln(1/R(t)) λ(t)

1 570 4.16728519 4.55% 95.45% -3.06787261524
2 600 4.54902303 9.09% 90.91% -2.35061865551
3 640 4.90186155 13.64% 86.36% -1.92002379137
4 670 5.1031537 18.18% 81.82% -1.60609004549
5 700 5.2706378 22.73% 77.27% -1.35545828057
1.5
6 730 5.41405387 27.27% 72.73% -1.14427808574
1 f(x) = 1.475818828593
7 770 5.57799247 31.82% 68.18% -0.9597405191
R² = 0.9990748107900
8 800 5.68541482 36.36% 63.64% -0.79410601176 0.5
9 830 5.7824088 40.91% 59.09% -0.64227709351 0 4 4.5 5
10 870 5.89863628 45.45% 54.55% -0.50065121972 -0.5
11 900 5.97772053 50.00% 50.00% -0.36651292058 -1
12 930 6.05100623 54.55% 45.45% -0.23767695094 -1.5
13 960 6.11928592 59.09% 40.91% -0.11225324266 -2
14 1000 6.20362804 63.64% 36.36% 0.01153413704 -2.5
15 1050 6.2999414 68.18% 31.82% 0.13552017994
-3
16 1100 6.387788 72.73% 27.27% 0.26181256164
-3.5
17 1150 6.46853688 77.27% 22.73% 0.39312564978
18 1220 6.57163898 81.82% 18.18% 0.53341735333
19 1280 6.6522693 86.36% 13.64% 0.68935508198
20 1380 6.77369803 90.91% 9.09% 0.87459138292
21 1570 6.97029806 95.45% 4.55% 1.12850839756
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ubes à rayons X d’un équipement de radiologie de même type et
1 avaries.
, 600, 640, 670, 700, 730, 770, 800, 830, 870, 900, 930, 960, 1000, 1050,
s de variable qui s’impose pour cette loi.
gner de 25.000 dhs et un changement systématique de l’huile de

optimale de la maintenance préventive systématique qu’on envisagerait à
ln(ln(1/R(t))
1.5
1 f(x) = 1.4758188285938 x − 9.1570966519504
0.5 R² = 0.999074810790066
0
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
0.5
-1
1.5
-2
2.5
-3
3.5
"E(t )"=" (1+" 1/" " ) =
  A
MTBF
β 1.4758188286 1
η (h) 495.098446
ϒ(calculé) (h) 505.46
R^2 99.9075%
MTBF
ln(ln(1/R(t)))=β.(ln(t-ϒ)-ln(η))
 1
MTBF  E (T )    1      A
 
2
 2   1 
T   1     1     B
     
(1+" 1/" " ) =
n(η))
β 1.4758188286 lim (C(t)
η (h) 495.098446 MTBF
ϒ(calculé 505.46 0.942408377 Toptimal
MTBF 955 MIN C(t)
MTBF(ti) MTBF(T)
∫129_0^𝑡𝑖▒ 〖𝑅 (𝑡).𝑑𝑡∫129_0^𝑇▒
〗
〖𝑅 (𝑡).𝑑𝑡
T (t-ϒ)/η R F Colonne1 〗
Colonne2
510 0.00916989 99.90% 0.10% 0.00 0.00
520 0.0293679 99.45% 0.55% 9.97 9.97
530 0.0495659 98.82% 1.18% 9.91 19.88
540 0.0697639 98.05% 1.95% 9.84 29.73
550 0.08996191 97.18% 2.82% 9.76 39.49
560 0.11015991 96.22% 3.78% 9.67 49.16
570 0.13035791 95.18% 4.82% 9.57 58.73
580 0.15055592 94.07% 5.93% 9.46 68.19
590 0.17075392 92.90% 7.10% 9.35 77.54
600 0.19095192 91.68% 8.32% 9.23 86.77
610 0.21114993 90.42% 9.58% 9.10 95.87
620 0.23134793 89.11% 10.89% 8.98 104.85
630 0.25154593 87.77% 12.23% 8.84 113.69
640 0.27174394 86.40% 13.60% 8.71 122.40
650 0.29194194 85.00% 15.00% 8.57 130.97
660 0.31213994 83.58% 16.42% 8.43 139.40
670 0.33233794 82.14% 17.86% 8.29 147.69
680 0.35253595 80.68% 19.32% 8.14 155.83
690 0.37273395 79.21% 20.79% 7.99 163.82
700 0.39293195 77.73% 22.27% 7.85 171.67
710 0.41312996 76.24% 23.76% 7.70 179.37
720 0.43332796 74.75% 25.25% 7.55 186.92
730 0.45352596 73.25% 26.75% 7.40 194.32
740 0.47372397 71.75% 28.25% 7.25 201.57
750 0.49392197 70.25% 29.75% 7.10 208.67
760 0.51411997 68.76% 31.24% 6.95 215.62
770 0.53431798 67.26% 32.74% 6.80 222.42
780 0.55451598 65.78% 34.22% 6.65 229.07
790 0.57471398 64.30% 35.70% 6.50 235.57
800 0.59491199 62.84% 37.16% 6.36 241.93
810 0.61510999 61.38% 38.62% 6.21 248.14
820 0.63530799 59.93% 40.07% 6.07 254.21
830 0.655506 58.50% 41.50% 5.92 260.13
840 0.675704 57.08% 42.92% 5.78 265.91
850 0.695902 55.68% 44.32% 5.64 271.55
860 0.71610001 54.29% 45.71% 5.50 277.04
870 0.73629801 52.91% 47.09% 5.36 282.40
880 0.75649601 51.56% 48.44% 5.22 287.63
28.25% 890 0.77669402 50.22% 49.78% 5.09 292.72
900 0.79689202 48.90% 51.10% 4.96 297.67
910 0.81709002 47.61% 52.39% 4.83 302.50
920 0.83728802 46.33% 53.67% 4.70 307.20
930 0.85748603 45.07% 54.93% 4.57 311.77
940 0.87768403 43.83% 56.17% 4.44 316.21
950 0.89788203 42.61% 57.39% 4.32 320.53
960 0.91808004 41.42% 58.58% 4.20 324.73
970 0.93827804 40.24% 59.76% 4.08 328.82
980 0.95847604 39.09% 60.91% 3.97 332.78
990 0.97867405 37.96% 62.04% 3.85 336.64
1000 0.99887205 36.85% 63.15% 3.74 340.38
1010 1.01907005 35.76% 64.24% 3.63 344.01
1020 1.03926806 34.70% 65.30% 3.52 347.53
1030 1.05946606 33.66% 66.34% 3.42 350.95
1040 1.07966406 32.64% 67.36% 3.31 354.26
1050 1.09986207 31.64% 68.36% 3.21 357.48
1060 1.12006007 30.66% 69.34% 3.11 360.59
1070 1.14025807 29.71% 70.29% 3.02 363.61
1080 1.16045608 28.78% 71.22% 2.92 366.53
1090 1.18065408 27.87% 72.13% 2.83 369.37
1100 1.20085208 26.98% 73.02% 2.74 372.11
1110 1.22105009 26.11% 73.89% 2.65 374.76
1120 1.24124809 25.27% 74.73% 2.57 377.33
1130 1.26144609 24.44% 75.56% 2.49 379.82
1140 1.2816441 23.64% 76.36% 2.40 382.22
1150 1.3018421 22.86% 77.14% 2.32 384.55
1160 1.3220401 22.09% 77.91% 2.25 386.79
1170 1.34223811 21.35% 78.65% 2.17 388.97
1180 1.36243611 20.63% 79.37% 2.10 391.06
1190 1.38263411 19.93% 80.07% 2.03 393.09
1200 1.40283211 19.24% 80.76% 1.96 395.05
1210 1.42303012 18.58% 81.42% 1.89 396.94
1220 1.44322812 17.93% 82.07% 1.83 398.77
1230 1.46342612 17.31% 82.69% 1.76 400.53
1240 1.48362413 16.70% 83.30% 1.70 402.23
1250 1.50382213 16.11% 83.89% 1.64 403.87
1260 1.52402013 15.53% 84.47% 1.58 405.45
1270 1.54421814 14.97% 85.03% 1.53 406.98
1280 1.56441614 14.43% 85.57% 1.47 408.45
1290 1.58461414 13.91% 86.09% 1.42 409.86
1300 1.60481215 13.40% 86.60% 1.37 411.23
1310 1.62501015 12.91% 87.09% 1.32 412.55
1320 1.64520815 12.43% 87.57% 1.27 413.81
1330 1.66540616 11.97% 88.03% 1.22 415.03
1340 1.68560416 11.52% 88.48% 1.17 416.21
1350 1.70580216 11.09% 88.91% 1.13 417.34
1360 1.72600017 10.67% 89.33% 1.09 418.42
1370 1.74619817 10.26% 89.74% 1.05 419.47
1380 1.76639617 9.87% 90.13% 1.01 420.48
1390 1.78659418 9.49% 90.51% 0.97 421.45
1400 1.80679218 9.13% 90.87% 0.93 422.38
1410 1.82699018 8.77% 91.23% 0.89 423.27
1420 1.84718819 8.43% 91.57% 0.86 424.13
1430 1.86738619 8.10% 91.90% 0.83 424.96
1440 1.88758419 7.78% 92.22% 0.79 425.75
1450 1.90778219 7.47% 92.53% 0.76 426.51
1460 1.9279802 7.17% 92.83% 0.73 427.25
1470 1.9481782 6.89% 93.11% 0.70 427.95
1480 1.9683762 6.61% 93.39% 0.67 428.62
1490 1.98857421 6.34% 93.66% 0.65 429.27
1500 2.00877221 6.08% 93.92% 0.62 429.89
1510 2.02897021 5.84% 94.16% 0.60 430.49
1520 2.04916822 5.60% 94.40% 0.57 431.06
1530 2.06936622 5.37% 94.63% 0.55 431.61
1540 2.08956422 5.14% 94.86% 0.53 432.13
1550 2.10976223 4.93% 95.07% 0.50 432.64
1560 2.12996023 4.73% 95.27% 0.48 433.12
1570 2.15015823 4.53% 95.47% 0.46 433.58
1580 2.17035624 4.34% 95.66% 0.44 434.03
1590 2.19055424 4.15% 95.85% 0.42 434.45
1600 2.21075224 3.98% 96.02% 0.41 434.86
1610 2.23095025 3.81% 96.19% 0.39 435.25
1620 2.25114825 3.64% 96.36% 0.37 435.62
1630 2.27134625 3.49% 96.51% 0.36 435.98
1640 2.29154426 3.34% 96.66% 0.34 436.32
1650 2.31174226 3.19% 96.81% 0.33 436.64
1660 2.33194026 3.05% 96.95% 0.31 436.96
1670 2.35213827 2.92% 97.08% 0.30 437.26
1680 2.37233627 2.79% 97.21% 0.29 437.54
1690 2.39253427 2.67% 97.33% 0.27 437.81
1700 2.41273228 2.55% 97.45% 0.26 438.07
1710 2.43293028 2.44% 97.56% 0.25 438.32
1720 2.45312828 2.33% 97.67% 0.24 438.56
1730 2.47332628 2.22% 97.78% 0.23 438.79
1740 2.49352429 2.12% 97.88% 0.22 439.01
1750 2.51372229 2.03% 97.97% 0.21 439.22
1760 2.53392029 1.94% 98.06% 0.20 439.41
1770 2.5541183 1.85% 98.15% 0.19 439.60
1780 2.5743163 1.76% 98.24% 0.18 439.78
1790 2.5945143 1.68% 98.32% 0.17 439.96
1800 2.61471231 1.61% 98.39% 0.16 440.12
1810 2.63491031 1.53% 98.47% 0.16 440.28
1820 2.65510831 1.46% 98.54% 0.15 440.43
1830 2.67530632 1.39% 98.61% 0.14 440.57
1840 2.69550432 1.33% 98.67% 0.14 440.71
1850 2.71570232 1.27% 98.73% 0.13 440.84
1860 2.73590033 1.21% 98.79% 0.12 440.96
1870 2.75609833 1.15% 98.85% 0.12 441.08
1880 2.77629633 1.10% 98.90% 0.11 441.19
1890 2.79649434 1.04% 98.96% 0.11 441.30
1900 2.81669234 0.99% 99.01% 0.10 441.40
1910 2.83689034 0.95% 99.05% 0.10 441.50
1920 2.85708835 0.90% 99.10% 0.09 441.59
1930 2.87728635 0.86% 99.14% 0.09 441.68
1940 2.89748435 0.82% 99.18% 0.08 441.76
1950 2.91768236 0.78% 99.22% 0.08 441.84
1960 2.93788036 0.74% 99.26% 0.08 441.92
1970 2.95807836 0.70% 99.30% 0.07 441.99
1980 2.97827636 0.67% 99.33% 0.07 442.06
1990 2.99847437 0.64% 99.36% 0.07 442.12
2000 3.01867237 0.61% 99.39% 0.06 442.18
2010 3.03887037 0.58% 99.42% 0.06 442.24
2020 3.05906838 0.55% 99.45% 0.06 442.30
2030 3.07926638 0.52% 99.48% 0.05 442.35
2040 3.09946438 0.49% 99.51% 0.05 442.40
2050 3.11966239 0.47% 99.53% 0.05 442.45
2060 3.13986039 0.45% 99.55% 0.05 442.50
2070 3.16005839 0.42% 99.58% 0.04 442.54
2080 3.1802564 0.40% 99.60% 0.04 442.58
2090 3.2004544 0.38% 99.62% 0.04 442.62
2100 3.2206524 0.36% 99.64% 0.04 442.66
2110 3.24085041 0.34% 99.66% 0.04 442.69
2120 3.26104841 0.33% 99.67% 0.03 442.73
2130 3.28124641 0.31% 99.69% 0.03 442.76
2140 3.30144442 0.29% 99.71% 0.03 442.79
2150 3.32164242 0.28% 99.72% 0.03 442.82
2160 3.34184042 0.26% 99.74% 0.03 442.85
2170 3.36203843 0.25% 99.75% 0.03 442.87
2180 3.38223643 0.24% 99.76% 0.02 442.90
2190 3.40243443 0.23% 99.77% 0.02 442.92
2200 3.42263244 0.21% 99.79% 0.02 442.94
2210 3.44283044 0.20% 99.80% 0.02 442.96
2220 3.46302844 0.19% 99.81% 0.02 442.98
2230 3.48322645 0.18% 99.82% 0.02 443.00
2240 3.50342445 0.17% 99.83% 0.02 443.02
2250 3.52362245 0.16% 99.84% 0.02 443.04
2260 3.54382045 0.15% 99.85% 0.02 443.05
2270 3.56401846 0.15% 99.85% 0.02 443.07
2280 3.58421646 0.14% 99.86% 0.01 443.08
2290 3.60441446 0.13% 99.87% 0.01 443.09
2300 3.62461247 0.12% 99.88% 0.01 443.11
2310 3.64481047 0.12% 99.88% 0.01 443.12
2320 3.66500847 0.11% 99.89% 0.01 443.13
2330 3.68520648 0.11% 99.89% 0.01 443.14
2340 3.70540448 0.10% 99.90% 0.01 443.15
2350 3.72560248 0.09% 99.91% 0.01 443.16
2360 3.74580049 0.09% 99.91% 0.01 443.17
2370 3.76599849 0.08% 99.92% 0.01 443.18
2380 3.78619649 0.08% 99.92% 0.01 443.19
2390 3.8063945 0.08% 99.92% 0.01 443.20
2400 3.8265925 0.07% 99.93% 0.01 443.20
2410 3.8467905 0.07% 99.93% 0.01 443.21
2420 3.86698851 0.06% 99.94% 0.01 443.22
2430 3.88718651 0.06% 99.94% 0.01 443.22
2440 3.90738451 0.06% 99.94% 0.01 443.23
2450 3.92758252 0.05% 99.95% 0.01 443.23
2460 3.94778052 0.05% 99.95% 0.01 443.24
2470 3.96797852 0.05% 99.95% 0.00 443.24
2480 3.98817653 0.05% 99.95% 0.00 443.25
2490 4.00837453 0.04% 99.96% 0.00 443.25
2500 4.02857253 0.04% 99.96% 0.00 443.26
2510 4.04877053 0.04% 99.96% 0.00 443.26
2520 4.06896854 0.04% 99.96% 0.00 443.27
2530 4.08916654 0.03% 99.97% 0.00 443.27
2540 4.10936454 0.03% 99.97% 0.00 443.27
2550 4.12956255 0.03% 99.97% 0.00 443.27
2560 4.14976055 0.03% 99.97% 0.00 443.28
2570 4.16995855 0.03% 99.97% 0.00 443.28
2580 4.19015656 0.03% 99.97% 0.00 443.28
2590 4.21035456 0.02% 99.98% 0.00 443.29
2600 4.23055256 0.02% 99.98% 0.00 443.29
2610 4.25075057 0.02% 99.98% 0.00 443.29
2620 4.27094857 0.02% 99.98% 0.00 443.29
2630 4.29114657 0.02% 99.98% 0.00 443.29
2640 4.31134458 0.02% 99.98% 0.00 443.30
2650 4.33154258 0.02% 99.98% 0.00 443.30
2660 4.35174058 0.02% 99.98% 0.00 443.30
2670 4.37193859 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.30
2680 4.39213659 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.30
2690 4.41233459 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.30
2700 4.4325326 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.30
2710 4.4527306 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2720 4.4729286 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2730 4.49312661 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2740 4.51332461 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2750 4.53352261 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2760 4.55372062 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2770 4.57391862 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2780 4.59411662 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2790 4.61431462 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2800 4.63451263 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2810 4.65471063 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.31
2820 4.67490863 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.32
2830 4.69510664 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.32
2840 4.71530464 0.01% 99.99% 0.00 443.32
2850 4.73550264 0.00% 100.00% 0.00 443.32
2860 4.75570065 0.00% 100.00% 0.00 443.32
2870 4.77589865 0.00% 100.00% 0.00 443.32
2880 4.79609665 0.00% 100.00% 0.00 443.32
2890 4.81629466 0.00% 100.00% 0.00 443.32
2900 4.83649266 0.00% 100.00% 0.00 443.32
2910 4.85669066 0.00% 100.00% 0.00 443.32
2920 4.87688867 0.00% 100.00% 0.00 443.32
2930 4.89708667 0.00% 100.00% 0.00 443.32
4860
4880
4900
4920
4940
4960
4980
5000
calcul intermediaire de T
N LIGNE MIN 49
Cp 1,500.00
900 Cf 6,710.35
Chart Title   t     
R (t )  exp    
13.98 Cr
    
600.00
 
500.00
𝐶_𝑓 .(1−𝑅("T
CP Cf
400.00
ct dCt/dt "Ct"
1498.525324 6.60300.00 500.00 〖𝑅 ("T0" ) 〗 _
1491.801026 36.68 153.31 ("T0" )=
1482.305288 79.16200.00 78.53
1470.809645 130.59 53.87
1457.706316 189.20100.00 41.71
1443.252844 253.86 34.52
0.00
1427.639387 323.71 0 29.82500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
1411.016334 398.07 26.53
1393.50807 476.40 24.12
1375.220721 558.21 22.28
1356.246896 643.09 20.85
1336.668771 730.67 19.72
1316.560198
1295.988199
1275.014058
820.63
912.66
1006.49
18.80
18.04
17.42
∫129_(ti−1)
1253.694154
1232.080588
1210.221688
1101.87
1198.56
1296.34
16.90
16.46
16.09
=((𝑅1+𝑅2))
1188.162408 1395.03 15.77
1165.944651 1494.42 15.50
1143.607541 1594.35 15.26
1121.187651 1694.64 15.06
1098.719189 1795.16 14.89
1076.234169 1895.75 14.74
1053.762551 1996.27 14.62
1031.332371 2096.62 14.51
1008.969849 2196.66 14.41
986.6994938 2296.28 14.33
964.5441918 2395.40 14.26
942.5252915 2493.90 14.20
920.6626795 2591.71 14.15
898.9748518 2688.73 14.11
877.4789795 2784.89 14.08
856.1909707 2880.12 14.05
835.1255284 2974.36 14.03
814.296206 3067.54 14.01
793.7154588 3159.61 14.00
773.3946941 3250.52 13.99
753.3443185 3340.22 13.98
733.5737831 3428.66 13.98
714.0916273 3515.81 13.98
694.9055203 3601.65 13.99
676.0223018 3686.12 13.99
657.4480206 3769.21 14.00
639.1879718 3850.90 14.01
621.2467335 3931.16 14.02
603.6282013 4009.98 14.03
586.3356223 4087.34 14.04
569.3716279 4163.23 14.06
552.738265 4237.64 14.07
536.4370269 4310.56 14.09
520.4688827 4382.00 14.11
504.8343062 4451.94 14.12
489.533303 4520.39 14.14
474.5654377 4587.35 14.16
459.9298597 4652.82 14.18
445.6253277 4716.82 14.20
431.6502344 4779.34 14.22
418.0026293 4840.39 14.24
404.6802414 4899.99 14.26
391.6805005 4958.14 14.28
379.0005583 5014.87 14.29
366.6373084 5070.18 14.31
354.5874053 5124.08 14.33
342.8472834 5176.60 14.35
331.4131742 5227.75 14.37
320.2811239 5277.55 14.39
309.4470095 5326.02 14.41
298.9065545 5373.17 14.43
288.6553441 5419.03 14.45
278.6888392 5463.62 14.47
269.0023903 5506.95 14.48
259.5912509 5549.05 14.50
250.4505893 5589.94 14.52
241.5755009 5629.65 14.54
232.9610197 5668.19 14.55
224.6021284 5705.58 14.57
216.4937691 5741.85 14.59
208.6308527 5777.03 14.60
201.0082684 5811.13 14.62
193.6208915 5844.18 14.64
186.4635924 5876.19 14.65
179.531244 5907.21 14.67
172.8187284 5937.24 14.68
166.3209446 5966.30 14.69
160.0328138 5994.43 14.71
153.9492862 6021.65 14.72
148.0653459 6047.97 14.74
142.3760165 6073.42 14.75
136.8763656 6098.03 14.76
131.5615091 6121.80 14.77
126.4266156 6144.77 14.79
121.4669099 6166.96 14.80
116.6776768 6188.39 14.81
112.0542635 6209.07 14.82
107.5920833 6229.03 14.83
103.2866176 6248.29 14.84
99.13341823 6266.87 14.85
95.12810992 6284.79 14.86
91.2663917 6302.07 14.87
87.54403865 6318.72 14.88
83.95690328 6334.77 14.89
80.50091665 6350.23 14.90
77.17208939 6365.12 14.91
73.96651248 6379.46 14.92
70.88035784 6393.26 14.92
67.90987881 6406.55 14.93
65.05141045 6419.34 14.94
62.30136967 6431.64 14.95
59.65625525 6443.48 14.95
57.11264775 6454.86 14.96
54.66720925 6465.79 14.97
52.31668302 6476.31 14.97
50.05789306 6486.42 14.98
47.88774356 6496.12 14.99
45.80321826 6505.45 14.99
43.80137973 6514.40 15.00
41.87936857 6523.00 15.00
40.03440255 6531.26 15.01
38.26377567 6539.18 15.01
36.56485717 6546.78 15.02
34.93509047 6554.07 15.02
33.37199213 6561.06 15.03
31.87315062 6567.77 15.03
30.43622524 6574.19 15.04
29.05894485 6580.36 15.04
27.73910664 6586.26 15.05
26.4745749 6591.92 15.05
25.26327967 6597.34 15.05
24.10321548 6602.53 15.06
22.99244001 6607.49 15.06
21.92907277 6612.25 15.06
20.91129373 6616.80 15.07
19.937342 6621.16 15.07
19.00551446 6625.33 15.07
18.1141644 6629.32 15.07
17.26170021 6633.13 15.08
16.44658396 6636.78 15.08
15.66733013 6640.26 15.08
14.92250423 6643.60 15.09
14.21072148 6646.78 15.09
13.5306455 6649.82 15.09
12.88098702 6652.73 15.09
12.26050257 6655.50 15.09
11.6679932 6658.15 15.10
11.10230326 6660.69 15.10
10.56231911 6663.10 15.10
10.04696794 6665.41 15.10
9.555216526 6667.61 15.10
9.086070075 6669.71 15.10
8.63857105 6671.71 15.11
8.211798023 6673.62 15.11
7.80486456 6675.44 15.11
7.416918113 6677.17 15.11
7.047138947 6678.83 15.11
6.694739082 6680.40 15.11
6.35896126 6681.91 15.11
6.039077933 6683.34 15.11
5.734390281 6684.70 15.12
5.44422724 6686.00 15.12
5.167944567 6687.23 15.12
4.904923919 6688.41 15.12
4.65457196 6689.53 15.12
4.416319484 6690.60 15.12
4.189620573 6691.61 15.12
3.973951764 6692.57 15.12
3.768811247 6693.49 15.12
3.573718085 6694.37 15.12
3.388211449 6695.20 15.12
3.211849887 6695.98 15.12
3.0442106 6696.73 15.12
2.884888749 6697.45 15.13
2.733496783 6698.12 15.13
2.589663781 6698.77 15.13
2.453034819 6699.38 15.13
2.323270355 6699.96 15.13
2.200045636 6700.51 15.13
2.08305012 6701.03 15.13
1.971986919 6701.53 15.13
1.866572262 6702.00 15.13
1.766534971 6702.45 15.13
1.671615958 6702.87 15.13
1.581567742 6703.28 15.13
1.496153972 6703.66 15.13
1.41514898 6704.02 15.13
1.33833734 6704.37 15.13
1.265513445 6704.69 15.13
1.196481102 6705.00 15.13
1.131053138 6705.29 15.13
1.06905102 6705.57 15.13
1.010304492 6705.83 15.13
0.954651226 6706.08 15.13
0.901936478 6706.32 15.13
0.852012768 6706.54 15.13
0.804739565 6706.75 15.13
0.759982983 6706.95 15.13
0.717615498 6707.14 15.13
0.677515663 6707.32 15.13
0.639567842 6707.49 15.13
0.603661957 6707.65 15.13
0.569693234 6707.80 15.13
0.537561974 6707.95 15.13
0.507173319 6708.08 15.13
0.478437035 6708.21 15.13
0.451267305 6708.33 15.13
0.425582526 6708.45 15.13
0.401305117 6708.56 15.13
0.378361334 6708.66 15.13
0.356681092 6708.76 15.13
0.336197798 6708.85 15.14
0.316848187 6708.93 15.14
0.298572165 6709.02 15.14
0.281312663 6709.09 15.14
0.265015494 6709.17 15.14
0.249629214 6709.24 15.14
0.235104995 6709.30 15.14
0.221396496 6709.36 15.14
0.208459751 6709.42 15.14
0.196253046 6709.47 15.14
0.184736817 6709.53 15.14
0.173873542 6709.57 15.14
0.163627643 6709.62 15.14
0.153965393 6709.66 15.14
0.144854821 6709.70 15.14
0.136265629 6709.74 15.14
0.128169108 6709.78 15.14
0.120538059 6709.81 15.14
0.113346718 6709.85 15.14
0.106570686 6709.88 15.14
0.100186858 6709.90 15.14
0.094173359 6709.93 15.14
0.088509483 6709.96 15.14
0.083175633 6709.98 15.14
0.078153262 6710.00 15.14
0.073424825 6710.02 15.14
0.068973722 6710.04 15.14
0.064784255 6710.06 15.14
0.060841576 6710.08 15.14
0.057131647 6710.10 15.14
0.053641197 6710.11 15.14
0.05035768 6710.13 15.14
0.047269241 6710.14 15.14
0.044364677 6710.15 15.14
 1

 f (t )   t   
t     (t )    
 
 R(t )    
   
𝑓 .(1−𝑅("T0" )") + " 𝐶_𝑝 ". "

𝑅 ("T0" )∫2_0
〗_ ^"T0"
▒𝑅(𝑡)𝑑𝑡
(ti−1)^𝑡𝑖▒ 〖𝑅 (𝑡).𝑑𝑡 〗
+𝑅2))/2*(T2-T1)
Exercice 2 :
On dispose d’un échographe dont on désire faire l’étude par Weib
2079, 1806, 1574, 1374, 1374, 1198.

Déterminer les paramètres de la loi.
De quelle loi peut alors se rapprocher cette loi de Weibull ?
Quel est alors la partie concernée de la courbe en baignoire ?
Calculer la MTBF de l’équipement.
Déterminer la fiabilité au bout de 500 heures.
Fiabilité de 500h 71.21%
t RANG TBF ln(t-ϒ) F(i)
0 1 77 4.34380542 4.76%
1514.0653 2 158 5.06259503 9.52%
3028.13059 3 244 5.49716823 14.29%
4542.19589 4 335 5.81413053 19.05%
6056.26119 5 432 6.06842559 23.81%

7570.32649 6 535 6.28226675 28.57%
9084.39178 7 646 6.4707995 33.33%
10598.4571 8 766 6.64118217 38.10%
12112.5224 9 897 6.79905586 42.86%
13626.5877 10 1040 6.94697599 47.62%
15140.653 11 1198 7.08840878 52.38%
16654.7183 12 1374 7.22548147 57.14%
18168.7836 13 1374 7.22548147 61.90%
19682.8489 14 1574 7.36137543 66.67%
21196.9142 15 1806 7.49886973 71.43%
22710.9795 16 2079 7.63964229 76.19%
24225.0448 17 2414 7.7890404 80.95%
25739.1101 18 2846 7.95366978 85.71%
27253.1753 19 3454 8.14728826 90.48%
28767.2406 20 4494 8.41049845 95.24%
#REF! #VALUE! #VALUE!
nt on désire faire l’étude par Weibull. Pour cela on dispose de TBF suivants : 432, 335, 244, 158, 77, 535, 646, 766, 897, 4494, 3454, 284
198.
loi.
ocher cette loi de Weibull ?
e de la courbe en baignoire ?
nt.
e 500 heures.
Rt) ln(ln(1/R(t)) (t-ϒ)/η λ(t) R(t)
95.24% -3.02022654034 0
90.48% -2.3017508555 0.00067903
85.71% -1.86982471449 0.00069238
80.95% -1.55443331853 0.00070031
76.19% -1.30219693546 0.00070599

71.43% -1.08923963963 0.00071043
 1
66.67% -0.90272045572 0.00071408
f (t )   t   
61.90% -0.73485898697 0.00071718  (t )    
57.14% -0.58050482369 0.00071988 R (t )    
52.38% -0.43598540263 0.00072226
47.62% -0.29849048045 0.0007244
42.86% -0.16570298099 #DIV/0! 0.00072635
38.10% -0.03554335106 0.00072812
33.33% 0.09404782762 0.00072976
28.57% 0.22535148683 0.00073128
23.81% 0.36122375012 0.0007327
19.05% 0.50574960853 0.00073403
14.29% 0.66572981058 0.00073528 ln(ln(1/R
9.52% 0.8550003728 0.00073646 2
4.76% 1.11334405396 0.00073758
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 1
f(x) = 1.02809268556272 x − 7.52826
R² = 0.998759641327226
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
0
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
-1
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! -2
-3
-4
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
-1
-2
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Chart Tit
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.0008
0.0007

0.0004

0.0001
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0
0 5000 10000 15000
4, 158, 77, 535, 646, 766, 897, 4494, 3454, 2846, 2414, 1040,
β 1.0281
η (h) 1514.1
ϒ(calculé) (h)
R^2 0.9988
MTBF 1497
 1
f (t )   t   
 (t )    
R (t )    
ln(ln(1/R(t))
2
1
f(x) = 1.02809268556272 x − 7.52826375672404
R² = 0.998759641327226
0
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9
-1
-2
-3
-4
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9
-1
-2
-3
-4
Chart Title
0.0008
0.0007
0.0006
0.0005
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Exercice 3 :
Le service qualité désire étudier ses pompes installées sur des CEC et
être suivis durant 5 ans :

N° de la pompe 3 2 8 5 9 Durée de vie en heures de fonctionnement 3

Vérifier que la durée de vie suit une loi de Weibüll dont on déterminera
Donner la durée de vie moyenne d’une pompe.
Donner la probabilité que la durée de vie soit supérieure à 10000 heur
t RANG TBF ln(t-ϒ) F(i) Rt)
4359.181300217 1 1670 5.46590592 12.96% 87.04%
7284.852600433 2 2250 6.70501466 31.48% 68.52%
10210.523900649 3 3300 7.53181494 50.00% 50.00%
10210.523900649 4 5600 8.33482923 68.52% 31.48%

5 7720 8.74615817 87.04% 12.96%
0.5
0
5 5.5
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
nstallées sur des CEC et comptabilise les défaillances issues d’expériences observées sur 5 POMPES qui ont pu
res de fonctionnement 3300 1670 2250 7720 5600
ibüll dont on déterminera les paramètres.

e.
supérieure à 10000 heures de fonctionnement.
ln(ln(1/R(t)) λ(t) β 0.786004384

-1.97445869438 η (h) 2925.6713
-0.97268614121 ϒ(calculé) (h) 1433.51
-0.36651292058 R^2 0.992646742
0.14476739634 MTBF 4791.278583

0.71445548626
Chart Title
1
0.5
0
5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
ui ont pu
Exercice 4 :
Le service de maintenance préconise, pour les armoires de contrôle, des inter
interventions sera déterminée à partir d'un historique de pannes d'une armoi
Les neuf premiers temps de bon fonctionnement (en jours) de cette armoire d
Soit T la variable aléatoire qui, à toute armoire de contrôle, associe son temps
Déduire des informations précédentes les résultats ci-dessous :
Les paramètres de la loi de Weibüll qui correspond au comportement de ces a
Les courbes de :R(t),F(t) et λ (t) ,conclure ;
2. Déterminer, par le calcul, la périodicité d'intervention préventives basée su
t RANG TBF ln(t-ϒ) F(i) Rt)
106.743725 1 31 3.26918864 7.45% 92.55%
208.777451 2 42 3.61872519 18.09% 81.91%
310.811176 3 67 4.1318009 28.72% 71.28%
412.844902 4 77 4.28068581 39.36% 60.64%

514.878627 5 89 4.43426323 50.00% 50.00%
616.912353 6 95 4.50302671 60.64% 39.36%
718.946078 7 122 4.7646495 71.28% 28.72%
820.979804 8 144 4.93655809 81.91% 18.09%
923.013529 9 173 5.12568868 92.55% 7.45%
s armoires de contrôle, des interventions préventives (par changement de certains éléments électroniques). La période de ces
storique de pannes d'une armoire de contrôle choisie au hasard.
ent (en jours) de cette armoire de contrôle sont les suivants (rangés en ordre croissant) : 31 ; 42 ; 67 ; 77 ; 89 ; 95 ; 122 ; 144 ; 173.
e de contrôle, associe son temps de bon fonctionnement. On cherche à ajuster la loi de T à une loi de Weibull.
ultats ci-dessous :
pond au comportement de ces armoires ;
tervention préventives basée sur une fiabilité de 80%.
ln(ln(1/R(t)) λ(t) β 1.8223332071586

-2.55894081794 0.01786011 η (h) 102.03372549343
-1.61199437532 0.12632549 ϒ(calculé) (h) 4.7100000000467
-1.08292942159 0.39671553 MTBF 95.395269908811
-0.69266027025 0.89350698 R^2 0.987448859341567
-0.36651292058 1.67729827
-0.07001817948 2.80599026
0.22110781362 4.33543128 Chart Title
0.53654099407 6.31982284 1.5
0.95450502846 8.81199754 1
0.5
0
3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
période de ces
5 ; 122 ; 144 ; 173.

TD Loi de Weibull1

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LOI DE WEIBULL

"E(t )"=" (1+" 1/" " ) =

t RANG TBF ln(t-ϒ) F(i) Rt) ln(ln(1/R(t)) λ(t)

s de variable qui s’impose pour cette loi.

gner de 25.000 dhs et un changement systématique de l’huile de

𝑓 .(1−𝑅("T0" )") + " 𝐶_𝑝 ". "

Fiabilité de 500h 71.21%

t RANG TBF ln(t-ϒ) F(i)

1514.0653 2 158 5.06259503 9.52%

3028.13059 3 244 5.49716823 14.29%

4542.19589 4 335 5.81413053 19.05%

6056.26119 5 432 6.06842559 23.81%

Rt) ln(ln(1/R(t)) (t-ϒ)/η λ(t) R(t)

90.48% -2.3017508555 0.00067903

85.71% -1.86982471449 0.00069238

80.95% -1.55443331853 0.00070031

76.19% -1.30219693546 0.00070599

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.0005

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.0002

t RANG TBF ln(t-ϒ) F(i) Rt)

4359.181300217 1 1670 5.46590592 12.96% 87.04%

7284.852600433 2 2250 6.70501466 31.48% 68.52%

10210.523900649 3 3300 7.53181494 50.00% 50.00%

10210.523900649 4 5600 8.33482923 68.52% 31.48%

res de fonctionnement 3300 1670 2250 7720 5600

ibüll dont on déterminera les paramètres.

ln(ln(1/R(t)) λ(t) β 0.786004384

0.14476739634 MTBF 4791.278583

t RANG TBF ln(t-ϒ) F(i) Rt)

106.743725 1 31 3.26918864 7.45% 92.55%

208.777451 2 42 3.61872519 18.09% 81.91%

310.811176 3 67 4.1318009 28.72% 71.28%

412.844902 4 77 4.28068581 39.36% 60.64%

tervention préventives basée sur une fiabilité de 80%.

ln(ln(1/R(t)) λ(t) β 1.8223332071586

5 ; 122 ; 144 ; 173.

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