PROBABILIDAD DE PRECIPITACION

No es solo saber la precipitacion media mensual, para elaborar un proyectode

riego, ya que si consideramos la precipitacion media, tenemos el chance de que 1
de cada 2 años, no vamos a satisfacer los requerimientos del cultivo.
El riego complementa a la precipitacion pluvial para satisfacer los requerimientso
hidricos del cultivo, por eso es necesario tener cierto nivel de seguridad, por esto
se ha deficnido en que para la elaboracion de proyectos de riego solo se debe
considerar las lluvias que tienen un 75% de probabiidad, o sea un tiempo de
recurrencia de 3 de cada 4 años, a esto se llama PD75 (precipitacion confiable a 75
% de probabilidad).
Relaciones entre la probabilidad (Pb) y el tiempo de recurrencia (TR)
TR = 100/Pb
Pb % TR Textual
Pp muy baja 99 =100/99 99 de cada 100 años Tamaño
95 =100/95 =20/19 19 de cada 20 años 1.40 a 1.45
Baja PP 90 =100/90 = 10/9 9 de cada 10 años 1.45 a 1.50
80 =100/80 =5/4 4 de cada 5 años 1.50 a 1.55
75 =100/75 = 4/3 3 de cada 4 años 1.55 a 1.60
Prec media 50 =100/50=2/1 1 de cada 2 años 1.60 a 1.65
25 =100/25 = 4/1 1 de cada 4 años 1.65 a 1.70
20 =100/20 = 5/1 1 de cada 5 años 1.70 a 1.75
Alta Pp 10 = 100/10 = 10/1 1 de cada 10 años 1.75 a 1.80
Pp muy alta 1 =100/1 1 de cada 100 años > 1.80
Las lluvias altas son muy pooco probables, en cambio las lluvias bajas son muy
probable que sean alcanzadas y superadas.
Que es un curva de frecuencia?,
Que tipos de distribucion conocen Uds?
Respondan Chart Title
Curva de frecuencia es la curva que relaciona, los rangos de un determinado 25
parametro (ej altura de los estudiantes), vs la frecuencia con la que ocurren. Una 20
curva de distribución de frecuencias es un tipo de estadísticas descriptivas 15
representados como un gráfico que demuestra la frecuencia de ocurrencia de una 10
variable dada, donde x representa un cierto grado de ocurrencia de la variable e y 5
representa el número de casos en cada frecuencia. 0
1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.
Ejemplo si medimos la altura de los alumnos de una materitenemos las siguientes a a a a a a
1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.
frecuencias, y graficando tenemos el Histograma de frecuencias
Tamaño N° de alumnos
1.40 a 1.45 1 Curva de fecuencia del tamaño de alumnos
25 23
1.45 a 1.50 3
1.50 a 1.55 5
20
1.55 a 1.60 12
1.60 a 1.65 23 15
15
1.65 a 1.70 15 12
1.70 a 1.75 8 10
8
1.75 a 1.80 3
> 1.80 1 5
5 3 3
1 1
0
1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 >
a a a a a a a a 1.80
1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.80
 12
10 8
5
5 3 3
1 1
0
1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 >
a a a a a a a a 1.80
1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.80

Para calcular porpabilidades se debe asumir un tipo de ditribucion en la curva de

frecuencia
TIPOS DE CURVAS DE FRECUENCIA
Hay diferentes curvas de frecuencia, según el tipo de distribucion: Distribucion
normal, binomial, Gumbel, Gamma, etc (han llevado en Agroclimatologia con el
Ing. Campos)
La distribucion Normal, o la campana de Gaus es la mas conocida, es simetrica
donde la moda y la mediana coinciden, sin embargo los hidrologos recomiendan
usar la distribucion Gamma para el analsis pluviometrico.
Distribucion normal
Desviacion estandar STD = DESVEST(PM1:PMn)
Precipitacion media PM= Promedio (Pm1:PMn)
Precíp. Confiable al 75% PD 75 =DISTR.NORM.INV((0.25,media,desv_estándar)
Distribucion Gamma
La distribucion Gamma no es simetrica sino cargada a la izaquierda, hacia los
valores menores, para su calculo en Excel, se usan ls siguientes formulas:
Desviacion estandar STD = DESVEST(PM1:PMn)
Precipitacion media PM= Promedio (Pm1:PMn)
Coeficiente de variacion CV = STD/PM
Alfa Alfa = 1/CV^2
Beta Beta = PM/Alfa
Precíp. Confiable al 75% PD75 = DISTR.GAMMA.INV (0.25;Alfa; Beta)
En Excel cuando escriben igual (=), hablitan una funcion y desplazando fx, en
formulas de estadistica encuentran Distr. Gamma inv. Donde deben insertar el
valor de alfa, de beta y el complemento de pa probabilidad, si es al 75%, escriban
0.25
Una curva de distribución de frecuencias es un tipo de estadísticas descriptivas
representados como un gráfico que demuestra la frecuencia de ocurrencia de una
variable dada, donde x representa un cierto grado de ocurrencia de la variable e y
representa el número de casos en cada frecuencia.
Les adjunto datos de Saavedra desde 1975 hasta el 2005, para que determinen
usando Excel la media, la desviacion estandar, CV, Alfa, Beta y PD75
En el cuadro de precipitacion de Saavedra calcularal final, los siguientes datos

COMO CALCULAR FUNCION "INV GAMMA"

Cuando no hay datos historicos, sino solamnete la media hay la formula
aproximada:
PD75 Aprox = PM*0.77-15 >=0 Si sale negativo de pone cero
Esta PD75 aproximada insertar al final del cuadro

RESULTADO
La PD75 distribucion Gamma, da valores que fructuan entre el 20 y 70% de la PM,
en los meses de verano alrededor de 60-50 y en los mese de invierno menos del
30%
Igual se puede calcular la precipitacion diferentes niveles de probabiidad

Finalmente el deficit de ETA, se calcula con la formula:

ETA Def = ETA - PD75
Tambien se puede calcular el Indice de Disponibilidad de Humedad MAI (Moisture
Avalability Index)
MAI= PD75/ETP
 N° de alumnos
1
3
5
12
23
15
8
3
1

Chart Title

1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 >

a a a a a a a 1.80
1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.80
 Año Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct

1975 125.3 49.5 69.9 63.0 6.2 104.8 65.4 81.7 187.6 65.5
1976 123.5 77.5 96.8 18.1 124.4 10.6 0.0 29.2 148.9 106.1
1977 437.7 92.5 199.4 74.6 6.8 19.7 15.6 122.6 29.9 52.0
1978 171.8 103.4 135.3 5.4 110.8 81.8 3.2 8.8 69.9 115.8
1979 357.9 349.6 56.9 98.6 13.7 0.0 20.2 14.9 93.5 50.1
1980 304.6 203.0 177.6 316.3 163.7 17.7 8.1 30.9 114.8 73.2

1981 309.8 154.0 248.6 189.2 161.5 25.3 9.0 96.0 140.2 319.0
1982 94.8 332.8 126.4 37.0 182.9 328.7 9.8 64.7 78.2 154.0
1983 302.3 150.1 179.3 61.9 242.8 39.9 70.6 19.1 41.4 92.5
1984 234.5 250.7 107.7 30.1 52.9 37.8 19.2 27.3 70.0 92.4
1985 118.6 200.2 64.4 162.5 52.7 166.6 198.9 1.0 112.8 75.8
1986 130.3 226.8 73.1 72.9 295.4 5.4 71.0 160.9 93.4 101.3
1987 224.7 51.4 187.5 22.3 98.0 173.4 156.4 137.7 63.6 112.0
1988 180.1 58.8 196.4 119.3 25.0 11.1 1.7 3.8 18.5 108.6
1989 339.7 122.8 184.9 60.5 16.3 100.1 38.8 270.5 19.5 154.2
1990 275.9 148.3 105.3 95.4 224.1 177.0 67.6 43.0 52.3 43.4

1991 477.3 95.7 173.3 73.6 20.2 151.3 23.2 0.5 41.0 72.5
1992 500.2 340.1 182.3 349.2 191.0 62.2 24.7 124.0 238.5 68.2
1993 172.5 240.8 98.5 8.0 40.2 11.2 62.8 27.3 40.1 85.0
1994 221.3 234.2 118.0 13.7 103.8 226.7 59.0 5.2 82.8 92.7
1995 207.3 362.8 83.5 97.5 29.9 2.6 13.9 0.3 79.5 53.6
1996 235.8 144.2 82.2 107.8 56.5 11.2 21.6 90.0 162.9 209.4
1997 189.7 136.9 145.9 301.8 64.2 200.2 6.2 69.7 89.4 215.0
1998 198.2 163.9 71.0 62.5 22.6 17.7 2.7 13.6 119.8 46.3
1999 150.6 70.8 93.7 47.3 58.5 56.6 22.9 0.5 95.3 28.1
2000 78.5 84.9 275.2 34.3 37.8 24.7 154.9 70.7 30.1 79.8

2001 85.8 167.0 94.2 111.6 63.6 16.2 92.8 25.8 71.7 6.9
2002 68.6 288.3 82.8 137.9 27.4 65.1 21.2 23.7 20.8 37.3
2003 278.3 249.2 182.3 143.3 10.3 6.4 4.8 28.9 145.8 160.3
2004 62.3 128.4 160.1 15.6 67.0 46.1 57.2 5.5 22.3 291.1
2005 135.9 118.0 55.5 33.0 68.3 80.8
Media 219.2 174.1 132.5 95.6 85.1 73.5 44.1 53.3 85.8 105.4
STD 117.2 92.7 58.3 89.0 77.3 81.2 50.3 61.4 54.1 73.0
CV 0.535 0.532 0.440 0.931 0.908 1.105 1.141 1.154 0.631 0.693
Alfa 3.496 3.529 5.171 1.153 1.213 0.820 0.768 0.751 2.512 2.083
Beta 62.7 49.3 25.6 82.9 70.2 89.7 57.4 70.9 34.2 50.6
PD75 133.2 106.1 90.0 31.5 29.3 16.9 9.3 10.9 46.0 51.7
PP Max 500.2 362.8 275.2 349.2 295.4 328.7 198.9 270.5 238.5 319.0
PP Min 62.3 49.5 55.5 5.4 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 18.5 6.9
PD75 aprox 153.7 119.0 87.0 58.6 50.5 41.6 19.0 26.0 51.1 66.2
PD75/PM 0.608 0.609 0.679 0.329 0.344 0.230 0.211 0.205 0.536 0.491
 PD95 67.8 54.2 53.2 6.8 6.8 2.2 1.1 1.2 19.8 19.7
PD90 88.6 70.8 65.4 12.9 12.4 5.1 2.7 3.0 27.7 29.1
PD80 119.6 95.4 82.7 25.1 23.5 12.5 6.8 7.9 40.3 44.6
PD75 133.2 106.1 90.0 31.5 29.3 16.9 9.3 10.9 46.0 51.7
PD50 198.7 157.9 124.1 69.8 63.2 46.6 27.1 32.3 74.7 89.1
PD25 283.0 224.6 165.9 132.3 117.6 101.7 60.9 73.4 113.7 141.5
PD20 307.0 243.6 177.5 152.0 134.6 120.0 72.2 87.3 125.0 157.0
PD10 376.3 298.3 210.5 212.5 186.9 177.7 108.3 131.5 158.4 203.0
PD5 440.6 349.0 240.6 272.5 238.3 236.4 145.2 176.7 189.7 246.8
PD1 578.7 458.0 304.1 410.2 356.2 374.8 232.6 284.1 258.4 343.7

Analsis pluviometrico de Saavedra

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
SE nota que al PD15 Aprox, da datos ligeramente superiores a la PD75 con distribucion Gamma
La PD75 distribucion Gamma, da valores que fructuan enre el20 y 70% de la PM, an los meses de verano alrededor de
xxx
700

600

500
PD
PD
PD
400
PD
PD
PD
300
PD
PD
PD
200
PD

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Nov Dic Anual

141.9 127.1 1087.9

166.3 311.7 1213.1
211.5 71.0 1333.3
294.1 233.0 1333.3
264.8 65.7 1385.9
170.1 80.9 1660.9

135.9 274.0 2062.5

99.1 399.6 1908.0
272.2 258.7 1730.8
245.5 396.2 1564.3
132.6 121.4 1407.5
79.6 149.2 1459.3
350.4 408.3 1985.7 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
131.2 166.6 1021.1
64.7 264.2 1636.2
247.9 155.4 1635.6

195.8 234.8 1559.2

137.6 490.3 2708.3
225.4 118.4 1130.2
47.8 204.6 1409.8
164.8 161.4 1257.1
220.3 176.9 1518.8
243.5 278.2 1940.7
198.0 144.4 1060.7
127.8 147.1 899.2
241.8 127.3 1240.0

204.6 71.9 1012.1

127.7 398.7 1299.5
179.9 317.3 1706.8
73.9 301.2 1230.7

179.9 221.9 1470.3 PM= Promedio (Pm1:PMn)

73.1 116.2 383.5 STD = DESVEST(PM1:PMn)
0.406 0.524 0.261 CV = STD/PM
6.062 3.646 14.702 Alfa = 1/CV^2
29.7 60.8 100.0 Beta = PM/Alfa
126.8 136.7 788.4 PD75 = DISTR.GAMMA.INV (0.25;Alfa; Beta)
350.4 490.3 2708.3
47.8 65.7 899.2
123.5 155.8 952.2 PD75 Aprox = PM*0.77-15 >=0
0.705 0.616 0.536
 78.8 70.9 382.4
94.9 92.0 504.7
117.4 123.1 698.9
126.8 136.7 788.4
170.1 201.9 1255.6
222.4 285.5 1922.3
236.8 309.2 2122.2
277.6 377.6 2718.7
314.4 440.9 3291.2
391.7 576.5 4569.0

Media
PD75
PP Max
PP Min
PD75 aprox

v Dic
0.0
de verano alrededor de 60- 0.0
0.0
 PD95
PD90
PD80
PD75
PD50
PD25
PD20
PD10
PD5
PD1

11 12
Estacion : Vallegrande Lat.: 18º 28' 00" S
Año Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep
1959 218.3 93.9 165.0 137.2 12.7 91.4 71.1 30.5 0.0
1960 114.2 139.0 120.1 106.6 71.1 12.7 49.0 45.9 63.5
1961 116.0 274.2 83.8 109.1 50.8 60.9 53.3 0.0 20.3
1962 182.2 150.4 132.0 22.8 30.4 20.2 0.0 48.2 66.0
1963 221.3 136.7 40.6 33.0 40.6 7.6 7.6 40.6
1964 86.0 246.6 188.0 66.0 38.1 15.2 5.0 35.6 144.8
1965 251.4 160.0 71.1 106.7 86.4 5.0 139.7 35.6 45.8
1966 177.8 147.3 122.0 7.6 86.4 68.6 0.0 76.2 20.3
1967 281.9 127.0 53.3 63.5 106.7 170.2 96.5 27.9 10.2
1968 134.6 180.3 15.2 40.6 2.5 43.2 91.4 25.4
1969 71.1 96.5 121.9 35.6 63.5 101.6 22.8 15.3 44.5
1970 86.4 96.5 33.0 33.0 48.2 73.7 7.6 7.6 2.5
1971 86.4 93.9 45.7 81.3 33.0 5.0 5.0 45.7 94.0
1972 211.1 178.1 38.1 81.2 35.6 17.8 120.5 26.1
1973 169.2 155.6 40.8 68.1 48.3 19.4 5.7
1974 266.0 94.7 57.1 52.5 97.5 32.2 60.0 73.1 6.0
1975 125.3 49.6 77.8 55.1 6.2 63.9 81.7 187.6
1976 123.5 77.5 96.8 18.1 124.4 10.6 0.0 29.2 148.9
1977 437.2 92.5 199.4 74.6 6.8 19.7 16.1 122.6 29.9
1978 172.1 103.4 135.3 5.4 110.8 81.8 3.2 8.9 70.1
1979 357.9 349.6 56.9 98.6 13.7 0.0 20.2 14.9 93.5
1980 304.6 203.2 177.6 316.3 163.7 17.7 8.1 30.9 114.8
1981 309.8 154.0 248.6 189.2 161.5 25.3 9.0 96.0 140.2
1982 94.8 332.8 126.4 37.0 182.9 328.7 9.8 64.7 78.2
1983 301.6 149.6 178.8 62.0 242.8 40.3 70.6 19.1 41.4
1984 251.0 108.1 30.3 52.9 37.8 27.3 90.4
1985 111.7 218.5 76.1 168.9 66.0 155.5 220.6 113.2
1986 147.7 256.8 88.0 93.4 376.9 5.4 90.0 186.9 119.1
1987 314.0 88.0 267.4 25.5 99.3 179.5 165.1 148.7 66.3
1988 194.9 65.0 145.2 126.1 28.9 12.2 2.2 4.0 19.9
1989 363.0 131.9 198.7 62.7 18.8 113.9 40.7 289.7 17.7
1990 284.7 140.1 112.7 96.8 235.7 171.6 71.1 40.7 51.6
1991 514.2 91.8 216.3 64.0 26.9 140.9 24.2 1.1 40.4
1992 492.3 382.9 193.1 365.1 212.1 66.9 22.6 128.9 235.3
1993 173.4 236.0 97.4 9.5 36.5 13.5 62.3 27.3 43.6
1994 227.6 250.8 119.9 12.8 94.5 225.1 67.1 1.8 82.9
1995 197.1 389.3 86.0 100.1 40.3 2.5 14.1 0.2 69.9
1996 181.7 129.2 90.8 86.4 54.8 9.5 22.5 88.5 176.3
1997 204.4 135.7 123.3 327.3 46.2 199.3 1.7 61.8 84.2
1998 185.1 161.9 133.7 57.6 24.1 16.0 3.7 20.7 122.0
1999 151.0 79.2 83.4 51.2 83.1 50.1 27.3 1.1 93.5
2000 78.9 256.3 276.9 22.0 46.0 27.0 156.0 46.0 20.0
2001 115.9 167.6 110.0 125.9 62.9 15.5 102.9 29.0 88.2
2002 77.6 322.4 52.0 142.0 31.5 93.6 34.5 25.5 38.0
2003 289.7 154.5 168.4 136.6 7.5 14.2 4.3 30.8 129.2
2004 174.9 149.4 170.0 23.8 47.5 47.2 55.7 0.0 28.3
2005 143.3 117.3 45.2 36.0 63.1 71.1 16.2 64.4 69.0
2006 116.4 186.0 196.0 57.9 22.1 197.3 7.0 1.6 62.0
2007 651.1 274.3 85.6 128.9 78.5 0.0 80.6 5.8 3.3
Media 214.3 175.6 125.2 85.5 77.1 67.4 44.2 49.6 69.1
Pp Minima 71.1 49.6 15.2 5.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pp Maxima 651.1 389.3 276.9 365.1 376.9 328.7 220.6 289.7 235.3
Desv.Est.(STD) 125.4 85.1 61.7 78.4 72.7 73.3 49.3 55.9 53.3
Coef. de var. (CV) 58.53% 48.46% 49.28% 91.76% 94.29% 108.80% 111.65% 112.63% 77.11%
Alfa 2.92 4.26 4.12 1.19 1.12 0.84 0.80 0.79 1.68
Beta 73.4 41.2 30.4 72.0 68.6 79.7 55.1 62.9 41.1
PD75 D.Gama =INV.GA 113.3 80.1 28.9 24.8 16.1 9.9 10.8 30.1
PD75 Aprox 149.977 120.196 81.4417 50.8287 44.3764 36.86523 19.02745 23.18398 38.1866
Pp PROB MM TR
PD1 606.867
700
PD5 453.2
PD10 382.4 600
PD20 306.6 500
250
PD25 280.6
PD50 190.4 400 200
PD75 122.1 300
PD80 108.3 150
PD90 77.3 200
PD95 57.0 100 100
PD99 30.0
0 50
Ene

Feb

Jun

Sep
May

Jul

Ago
Abr
Mar
0
Ene Feb Mar AbrPpMay
Media Jun
Minima Jul Pp
Ago Se
Maxi
Distribucion Normal Media PD75
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep
PD75 Aprox
1 505.965 373.511 268.848 267.986 246.255 237.8487 158.9775 179.527 192.979
5 420.51 315.528 226.781 214.525 196.705 187.904 125.3514 141.4624 156.681
25 298.832 232.967 166.883 138.403 126.153 116.7888 77.47198 87.263 104.998
50 214.255 175.58 125.249 85.4918 77.1122 67.35745 44.19149 49.58958 69.0735
75 129.679 118.192 83.6145 32.5804 28.0718 17.92606 10.911 11.91617 33.149
95 8.00102 35.6314 23.7164 0 0 0 0 0 0
 Serie: 1959 - 2007 10/14/2012
Oct Nov Dic Total
9.9 109.0 131.5 1070.5
63.5 81.2 115.1 981.9
76.2 109.2 254.0 1207.8
96.5 66.4 190.5 1005.6
116.7 94.0 216.2 954.9
129.5 144.8 185.4 1285
136.7 96.5 175.2 1310.1
144.7 93.9 170.2 1115
45.7 38.1 111.8 1132.8
119.4 78.7 350.5 1081.8
68.6 170.2 811.6
96.5 53.3 78.8 617.1
35.6 89.1 96.5 711.2
150.8 135.4 994.7
120.9 210.3 315.8 1154.1
247.6 161.5 173.5 1321.7
647.2
106.1 166.3 311.5 1212.9
52.0 211.5 71.0 1333.3
115.8 294.1 233.0 1333.9
50.1 264.8 65.7 1385.9
73.2 170.1 80.9 1661.1
319.0 135.9 274.0 2062.5
154.1 100.5 399.2 1909.1
92.5 272.2 258.7 1729.6
76.1 228.3 401.6 1303.8
124.3 139.5 125.5 1519.8
105.2 80.1 176.4 1725.9
119.2 362.8 397.9 2233.7
105.5 138.8 179.1 1021.8
156.5 63.9 271.1 1728.6
46.0 253.9 140.0 1644.9
76.8 199.5 251.1 1647.2
66.9 136.4 508.0 2810.5
77.1 232.1 116.0 1124.7
91.4 55.7 200.1 1429.7 700.0
61.6 152.8 161.0 1274.9
243.2 217.6 177.6 1478.1 600.0
225.8
34.7
229.3 281.9 1920.9
212.1 162.1 1133.7 500.0 Coef. de var. (CV)
30.9 134.1 172.1 957 120.00%
400.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Media
89.5 263.1 163.9 1445.6 Pp Minima
6.9 204.6 76.4 1105.8
100.00% 0.9 0.9
300.0 Pp Maxima
20.0 148.9 386.2 1372.2 80.00% 0.8 Desv.Est.(STD)
182.5 283.8 305.0 1706.5 200.0 0.7 Coef. de var. (CV)
0.6
60.00% 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5
100.0
40.00%
0.0
20.00%
 Pp Minima
100.00% 0.9 0.9
300.0 Pp Maxima
80.00% 0.8 Desv.Est.(STD)
200.0 0.7 Coef. de var. (CV)
0.6
326.2 86.0 364.3 1473.3 60.00% 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5
72.4 328.6 315.5 1342.1 100.0
40.00%
254.8 45.3 231.2 1377.6
0.0
81.4 236.2 1625.7 Ene20.00%
Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
110.34 162.1 218.3 1398.6
0.00%
6.9 38.1 65.7 617.1 Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
326.2 362.8 508.0 2810.5
73.6 80.5 106.3 410.0 STD = DESVEST(PM1:PMn)
66.67% 49.64% 48.68% 29.32% CV = STD/PM
2.2495 4.06 4.22 Alfa = 1/CV^2 ==> Redondeado a cero decimales
49.053 39.9 51.7 Beta = PM/Alfa
56.3 103.2 140.5 613.9 PD75 = DISTR.GAMMA.INV (0.25;Alfa; Beta)
69.9647 109.811 153.082 896.9 PD75 Aprox = PM*0.77-15 >=0
22.5565
Dic
Oct

Nov
Jun

Sep
May

Jul

Ago
Abr

Mar AbrPpMay Jun

Minima Jul Pp
Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
Maxima
Media PD75 D.Gama 600
Oct
PD75 Aprox Nov Dic
281.496 349.281 465.491 500
231.358 294.445 393.074
159.967 216.364 289.961 400
110.344 162.092 218.289
60.7206 107.819 146.616 300
0 0 0
200

100

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
(CV)
Media
Pp Minima
Pp Maxima
Desv.Est.(STD)
0.7 Coef. de var. (CV)
0.5 0.5
 Pp Minima
Pp Maxima
Desv.Est.(STD)
0.7 Coef. de var. (CV)
0.5 0.5

Dic

Oct Nov Dic

Ene
Feb
Mar
Abr
May
Jun
Jul
Ago
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dic

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Estacion : Armando Gomez Lat.: 18º 39' 00" S
Año Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct
1969 88.0 21.0 47.5 92.5 24.5 35.5 2.0 20.0 14.5 3.0
1970 119.0 95.5 138.0 34.0 23.0 19.9 44.3 1.5 16.7 12.5
1971 56.5 73.0 164.8 58.5 12.0 12.0 5.1 8.7 18.3 29.5
1972 102.4 98.0 72.2 48.2 12.6 93.2 0.2 100.4 24.3 27.3
1973 97.2 76.1 81.0 17.4 72.6 13.0 9.1 2.7 2.9 45.6
1974 129.0 41.1 128.6 60.0 43.9 3.0 17.1 9.7 4.0 125.9
1975 125.6 28.2 32.8 120.0 8.0 10.6 18.0 5.2 27.5 10.4
1976 126.4 100.8 34.0 55.6 13.2 5.6 0.6 5.0 4.0 12.0
1977 58.2 66.8 106.8 84.8 71.9 5.0 4.8 46.4 46.5 6.0
1978 106.4 119.6 65.6 40.4 5.0 18.6 0.0 0.0 21.0 40.6
1979 126.8 156.8 115.2 56.8 12.6 3.6 7.4 0.0 4.2 11.6
1980 67.4 84.8 101.0 72.8 54.2 11.6 24.8 30.4 24.8 4.2
1981 107.2 184.4 100.3 74.1 15.2 23.5 1.6 10.4 77.6 42.2
1982 - - - - - - - - 11.6 38.0
1983 143.5 35.2 102.8 122.8 43.0 35.2 55.0 1.3 0.4 68.2
1984 - - - - - - - - - -
1985 94.5 - 56.2 92.2 37.5 86.0 - - - -
1986 92.0 228.3 125.5 25.0 45.0 13.6 - 16.6 163.4 12.0
1987 112.0 29.0 110.0 60.5 29.8 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.9
1988 239.0 101.0 124.0 27.5 22.5 6.0 14.2 0.0 4.0 24.2
1989 144.7 226.6 159.2 133.8 22.3 72.5 34.0 17.0 28.0 5.8
1990 74.0 97.0 0.0 71.0 22.0 8.7 5.0 15.0 12.0 7.0
1991 83.1 92.7 53.7 156.9 24.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1992 117.5 162.6 63.5 53.1 65.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 13.0
1993
1994
1995
Media 109.6 100.9 90.1 70.8 30.9 22.4 12.2 13.8 23.0 28.0
Pp Minima 56.5 21.0 0.0 17.4 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pp Maxima 239.0 228.3 164.8 156.9 72.6 93.2 55.0 100.4 163.4 125.9
Desv. Est. (STD) 43.0 36.8 43.0 36.8 20.6 27.0 15.9 23.1 36.3 30.3
Coef. de var. (CV) 39.22% 36% 48% 52% 66% 120% 130% 167% 158% 108%
PD75 DN 80.58 76.09 61.14 46.02 17.07 4.25 1.47 0.00 0.00 7.54
Alfa 7 8 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 1
Beta 15.7 12.6 22.5 17.7 15.5 22.4 12.2 28.0
PD75 D.Gama 79.6 75.1 57.1 44.9 14.9 6.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 8.0
PD75 Aprox 69.4 62.7 54.4 39.5 8.8 2.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 6.5
120 300

100 250

80 200

60 150

40 100

20 50

0 0
e

t
l
y
r

r
80 200

60 150

40 100

20 50

0 0
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic

Ene

Oct
Sep
Jul
Feb

Jun
May

Ago
Mar

Abr
Media PD75 DN
PD75 D.Gama PD75 Aprox Media Pp Minima Pp Maxima
 Serie: 1969 - 1992 10/14/2012
Nov Dic Total
233.5 26.8 608.8
34.3 68.2 606.9
86.3 98.3 623
52.9 139.7 771.4
143.3 134.6 695.5
24.2 70.8 657.3
41.4 87.5 515.2
3.0 118.4 478.6
105.7 186.4 789.3
49.7 151.8 618.7
111.0 156.2 762.2
7.8 60.8 544.6
57.6 147.7 841.8
127.8 63.5 240.9
- - 607.4
- - 0
36.4 67.3 470.1
155.8 59.3 936.5
131.5 72.5 637.7
7.5 100.1 670
0.0 127.0 970.9
63.0 145.0 519.7
25.0 65.5 501.1
53.0 108.9 638.1

70.5 102.6 674.8 Media

0.0 26.8 126.7 Min
233.5 186.4 1819.4 Max
60.0 41.6 204.9 STD = DESVEST(PM1:PMn)
85% 41% 30% CV = STD*100/PM
30.04 74.51 398.7 PD75 = DISTR.NORM.INV (0.25,PM.STD)
1 6 Alfa = 1/CV^2 ==> Redondeado a cero decimales
70.5 17.1 Beta = PM/Alfa
20.3 72.1 381.9 PD75 = DISTR.GAMMA.INV (0.25,Alfa, Beta)
39.3 64.0 349.5 PD75 Aprox = PM*0.77-15 >=0
c
t
l

v
 Jun

Pp Minima
Jul

Ago

Sep

Oct

Pp Maxima
Nov

Dic
Estacion : Vallegrande Lat.: 18º 28' 00" S Serie: 1959 - 2007
Año Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov
1959 218.3 93.9 165.0 137.2 12.7 91.4 71.1 30.5 0.0 9.9 109.0
1960 114.2 139.0 120.1 106.6 71.1 12.7 49.0 45.9 63.5 63.5 81.2
1961 116.0 274.2 83.8 109.1 50.8 60.9 53.3 0.0 20.3 76.2 109.2
1962 182.2 150.4 132.0 22.8 30.4 20.2 0.0 48.2 66.0 96.5 66.4
1963 221.3 136.7 40.6 33.0 40.6 7.6 7.6 40.6 116.7 94.0
1964 86.0 246.6 188.0 66.0 38.1 15.2 5.0 35.6 144.8 129.5 144.8
1965 251.4 160.0 71.1 106.7 86.4 5.0 139.7 35.6 45.8 136.7 96.5
1966 177.8 147.3 122.0 7.6 86.4 68.6 0.0 76.2 20.3 144.7 93.9
1967 281.9 127.0 53.3 63.5 106.7 170.2 96.5 27.9 10.2 45.7 38.1
1968 134.6 180.3 15.2 40.6 2.5 43.2 91.4 25.4 119.4 78.7
1969 71.1 96.5 121.9 35.6 63.5 101.6 22.8 15.3 44.5 68.6 170.2
1970 86.4 96.5 33.0 33.0 48.2 73.7 7.6 7.6 2.5 96.5 53.3
1971 86.4 93.9 45.7 81.3 33.0 5.0 5.0 45.7 94.0 35.6 89.1
1972 211.1 178.1 38.1 81.2 35.6 17.8 120.5 26.1 150.8 135.4
1973 169.2 155.6 40.8 68.1 48.3 19.4 5.7 120.9 210.3
1974 266.0 94.7 57.1 52.5 97.5 32.2 60.0 73.1 6.0 247.6 161.5
1975 125.3 49.6 77.8 55.1 6.2 63.9 81.7 187.6
1976 123.5 77.5 96.8 18.1 124.4 10.6 0.0 29.2 148.9 106.1 166.3
1977 437.2 92.5 199.4 74.6 6.8 19.7 16.1 122.6 29.9 52.0 211.5
1978 172.1 103.4 135.3 5.4 110.8 81.8 3.2 8.9 70.1 115.8 294.1
1979 357.9 349.6 56.9 98.6 13.7 0.0 20.2 14.9 93.5 50.1 264.8
1980 304.6 203.2 177.6 316.3 163.7 17.7 8.1 30.9 114.8 73.2 170.1
1981 309.8 154.0 248.6 189.2 161.5 25.3 9.0 96.0 140.2 319.0 135.9
1982 94.8 332.8 126.4 37.0 182.9 328.7 9.8 64.7 78.2 154.1 100.5
1983 301.6 149.6 178.8 62.0 242.8 40.3 70.6 19.1 41.4 92.5 272.2
1984 251.0 108.1 30.3 52.9 37.8 27.3 90.4 76.1 228.3
1985 111.7 218.5 76.1 168.9 66.0 155.5 220.6 113.2 124.3 139.5
1986 147.7 256.8 88.0 93.4 376.9 5.4 90.0 186.9 119.1 105.2 80.1
1987 314.0 88.0 267.4 25.5 99.3 179.5 165.1 148.7 66.3 119.2 362.8
1988 194.9 65.0 145.2 126.1 28.9 12.2 2.2 4.0 19.9 105.5 138.8
1989 363.0 131.9 198.7 62.7 18.8 113.9 40.7 289.7 17.7 156.5 63.9
1990 284.7 140.1 112.7 96.8 235.7 171.6 71.1 40.7 51.6 46.0 253.9
1991 514.2 91.8 216.3 64.0 26.9 140.9 24.2 1.1 40.4 76.8 199.5
1992 492.3 382.9 193.1 365.1 212.1 66.9 22.6 128.9 235.3 66.9 136.4
1993 173.4 236.0 97.4 9.5 36.5 13.5 62.3 27.3 43.6 77.1 232.1
1994 227.6 250.8 119.9 12.8 94.5 225.1 67.1 1.8 82.9 91.4 55.7
1995 197.1 389.3 86.0 100.1 40.3 2.5 14.1 0.2 69.9 61.6 152.8
1996 181.7 129.2 90.8 86.4 54.8 9.5 22.5 88.5 176.3 243.2 217.6
1997 204.4 135.7 123.3 327.3 46.2 199.3 1.7 61.8 84.2 225.8 229.3
1998 185.1 161.9 133.7 57.6 24.1 16.0 3.7 20.7 122.0 34.7 212.1
1999 151.0 79.2 83.4 51.2 83.1 50.1 27.3 1.1 93.5 30.9 134.1
2000 78.9 256.3 276.9 22.0 46.0 27.0 156.0 46.0 20.0 89.5 263.1
2001 115.9 167.6 110.0 125.9 62.9 15.5 102.9 29.0 88.2 6.9 204.6
2002 77.6 322.4 52.0 142.0 31.5 93.6 34.5 25.5 38.0 20.0 148.9
2003 289.7 154.5 168.4 136.6 7.5 14.2 4.3 30.8 129.2 182.5 283.8
2004 174.9 149.4 170.0 23.8 47.5 47.2 55.7 0.0 28.3 326.2 86.0
2005 143.3 117.3 45.2 36.0 63.1 71.1 16.2 64.4 69.0 72.4 328.6
2006 116.4 186.0 196.0 57.9 22.1 197.3 7.0 1.6 62.0 254.8 45.3
2007 651.1 274.3 85.6 128.9 78.5 0.0 80.6 5.8 3.3 81.4 236.2
Media 214.3 175.6 125.2 85.5 77.1 67.4 44.2 49.6 69.1 110.3 162.1
Pp Minima 71.1 49.6 15.2 5.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 38.1
Pp Maxima 651.1 389.3 276.9 365.1 376.9 328.7 220.6 289.7 235.3 326.2 362.8
Desv.Est.(STD) 61.7 78.4 61.7 78.4 72.7 73.3 49.3 55.9 53.3 73.6 80.5
Coef. de var. (CV) 28.81% 45% 49% 92% 94% 109% 112% 113% 77% 67% 50%
PD75 DN 172.62 122.67 83.61 32.58 28.07 17.93 10.91 11.92 33.15 60.72 107.82
Alfa 12 5 4 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4
Beta 17.9 35.1 31.3 85.5 77.1 67.4 44.2 49.6 34.5 55.2 40.5
PD75 D.Gama 170.0 118.3 79.4 24.6 22.2 19.4 12.7 14.3 33.2 53.0 102.7
PD75 Aprox 149.98 120.20 81.44 50.83 44.38 36.87 19.03 23.18 38.19 69.96 109.81
169.951

250 700

600
200
500
150 400

100 300

200
50
100

0 0
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
Ene

Dic
Oct
May
Feb

Sep

Nov
Jul

Ago
Jun
Mar

Abr

Media PD75 DN
PD75 D.Gama PD75 Aprox Media Pp Minima Pp Maxima
Serie: 1959 - 2007 10/14/2012
Dic Total
131.5 1070.5
115.1 981.9
254.0 1207.8
190.5 1005.6
216.2 954.9
185.4 1285
175.2 1310.1
170.2 1115
111.8 1132.8
350.5 1081.8
811.6
78.8 617.1
96.5 711.2
994.7
315.8 1154.1
173.5 1321.7
647.2
311.5 1212.9
71.0 1333.3
233.0 1333.9
65.7 1385.9
80.9 1661.1
274.0 2062.5
399.2 1909.1
258.7 1729.6
401.6 1303.8
125.5 1519.8
176.4 1725.9
397.9 2233.7
179.1 1021.8
271.1 1728.6
140.0 1644.9
251.1 1647.2
508.0 2810.5
116.0 1124.7
200.1 1429.7
161.0 1274.9
177.6 1478.1
281.9 1920.9
162.1 1133.7
172.1 957
163.9 1445.6
76.4 1105.8
386.2 1372.2
305.0 1706.5
 364.3 1473.3
315.5 1342.1
231.2 1377.6
1625.7
218.3 1398.6
65.7 254.5
508.0 4330.6
106.3 410.0 STD = DESVEST(PM1:PMn)
49% 29% CV = STD*100/PM
146.62 828.6 PD75 = DISTR.NORM.INV (0.25,PM.STD)
4 Alfa = 1/CV^2 ==> Redondeado a cero decimales
54.6 Beta = PM/Alfa
138.4 788.1 PD75 = DISTR.GAMMA.INV (0.25,Alfa, Beta)
153.08 896.9 PD75 Aprox = PM*0.77-15 >=0
Dic
Oct
Sep

Nov
Jul

Ago

nima Pp Maxima
 Pb(%)
75%
Mes PM (mm) STD CV Alfa Beta PD75 Gamma
Ene 214.3 125.4 0.585 2.920 73.379 122.1
Feb 175.6 85.1 0.485 4.258 41.242 113.3
Mar 125.2 61.7 0.493 4.118 30.406 80.0
Abr 85.5 78.4 0.917 1.189 71.890 28.9
May 77.1 72.7 0.943 1.125 68.551 24.8
Jun 67.4 73.3 1.088 0.845 79.716 16.1
Jul 44.2 49.3 1.115 0.804 54.988 9.9
Ago 49.6 55.9 1.127 0.787 63.000 10.8
Sep 69.1 53.3 0.771 1.681 41.113 30.1
Oct 110.3 73.6 0.667 2.246 49.111 56.2
Nov 162.1 80.5 0.497 4.055 39.977 103.2
Dic 218.3 106.3 0.487 4.217 51.762 140.5
Anual 1398.7 915.5 0.655 736.0
PD75 aprox
150.0
120.2
81.4
50.8
44.4
36.9
19.0
23.2
38.2
69.9
109.8
153.1
897.0
 SEP (X-X)2 Z=(X-X)/S p(<Xo) p(>Xo) TR=m/(n+1) Pb=100/TR
1 225.8 16944.1 2.6120 99.5499 0.4501 24.0000 4.17
Probabilidad
2 189.3 8774.0 1.8796 96.9918 3.0082 12.0000 8.33
3 154.9 3512.9 1.1893 88.2842 11.7158 8.0000 12.50 120
4 138.0 1795.2 0.8502 80.2392 19.7608 6.0000 16.67
5 127.4 1009.3 0.6375 73.8099 26.1901 4.8000 20.83
100
6 121.8 684.8 0.5251 70.0252 29.9748 4.0000 25.00
7 118.7 532.2 0.4629 67.8289 32.1711 3.4286 29.17
8 115.1 379.1 0.3907 65.1983 34.8017 3.0000 33.33 80

Porbabilidad en %
9 105.7 101.4 0.2021 58.0064 41.9936 2.6667 37.50
10 97.2 2.5 0.0315 51.2563 48.7437 2.4000 41.67
11 90.9 22.4 -0.0949 46.2188 53.7812 2.1818 45.83 60

12 87.5 66.1 -0.1631 43.5201 56.4799 2.0000 50.00

13 81.9 188.5 -0.2755 39.1459 60.8541 1.8462 54.17
40
14 78.4 296.9 -0.3457 36.4765 63.5235 1.7143 58.33
15 78.3 300.3 -0.3478 36.4012 63.5988 1.6000 62.50
16 74.0 467.9 -0.4340 33.2129 66.7871 1.5000 66.67 20
17 72.9 516.7 -0.4561 32.4154 67.5846 1.4118 70.83
18 61.5 1164.9 -0.6849 24.6713 75.3287 1.3333 75.00
19 41.5 2930.1 -1.0862 13.8697 86.1303 1.2632 79.17 0
200 150 100
20 39.5 3150.6 -1.1263 13.0014 86.9986 1.2000 83.33
21 39.1 3195.7 -1.1344 12.8323 87.1677 1.1429 87.50 Precipitacion (mm

22 30.5 4242.0 -1.3069 9.5620 90.4380 1.0909 91.67

23 29.6 4360.0 -1.3250 9.2589 90.7411 1.0435 95.83
TOTAL 2199.5
MEDIA 95.6
MIN 29.6
MAX 225.8
S 49.8
CV 52.1
X-S 45.79547
X+S 145.4654
 Probabilidad de precipitacion de Sep Lineal Ecuacion R2
p(z) y = -0.5536x + 105.03 0.9486
120 p(TR) y = -0.5385x + 101.5 0.9019
Exp
p(z) y = 331.95e-0.0231x 0.8632
100 p(TR) y = 187.28e-0.0163x 0.9697
Pot.
80
p(z) y = 80081x-1.7404 0.6061
Porbabilidad en %

p(TR) y = 14456x-1.3356 0.8048

Cuad
60 p(z) y = 0.0016x2 - 0.93x + 122.34 0.9827
p(TR) y = 0.0024x2 - 1.0879x + 126.76 0.9749
40

20

0
200 150 100 50 0
Precipitacion (mm)

p(>Xo) Pb=100/TR