AÑOS VENTA DE FRESA PRONÓSTICO

N° n=3 x X e=x-X Error Abs

1 1996 52
2 1997 55
3 1998 58
4 1999 64 55 9 9
5 2000 69 59 10 10
6 2001 73 63.67 9.33 9.33
7 2002 75 68.67 6.33 6.33
8 2003 78 72.33 5.67 5.67
9 2004 81 75.33 5.67 5.67
10 2005 86 78 8.00 8.00
11 2006 89 81.67 7.33 7.33
12 2007 90 85.33 4.67 4.67
13 2008 92 88.33 3.67 3.67
14 2009 95 90.33 4.67 4.67
15 2010 101 92.33 8.67 8.67
16 2011 104 96.00 8.00 8.00
17 2012 107 100.00 7.00 7.00

AÑOS VENTA DE FRESA PRONÓSTICO

N° n=3 x X e=x-X Error Abs
1 1996 52
2 1997 55
3 1998 58
4 1999 64 55.75 8.25 8.25
5 2000 69 60.25 8.75 8.75
6 2001 73 65 8 8
7 2002 75 69.75 5.25 5.25
8 2003 78 73 5 5
9 2004 81 76 5 5
10 2005 86 78.75 7.25 7.25
11 2006 89 82.75 6.25 6.25
12 2007 90 86.25 3.75 3.75
13 2008 92 88.75 3.25 3.25
14 2009 95 90.75 4.25 4.25
15 2010 101 93 8 8
16 2011 104 97.25 6.75 6.75
17 2012 107 101 6 6

AÑOS VENTA DE FRESA PRONÓSTICO

N° n=3 x X e=x-X Error Abs
 1 1996 52 52 0 0
2 1997 55 52.00 3.00 3
3 1998 58 53.05 4.95 4.95
4 1999 64 54.78 9.22 9.22
5 2000 69 58.01 10.99 10.99
6 2001 73 61.86 11.14 11.14
7 2002 75 65.76 9.24 9.24
8 2003 78 68.99 9.01 9.01
9 2004 81 72.14 8.86 8.86
10 2005 86 75.24 10.76 10.76
11 2006 89 79.01 9.99 9.99
12 2007 90 82.51 7.49 7.49
13 2008 92 85.13 6.87 6.87
14 2009 95 87.53 7.47 7.47
15 2010 101 90.15 10.85 10.85
16 2011 104 93.95 10.05 10.05
17 2012 107 97.46 9.54 9.54

AÑOS VENTA DE FRESA PRONÓSTICO

N° n=3 x At Tt Yt' |et|
1 1996 52 52 0
2 1997 55 53.05 0.37 52.00 3.00
3 1998 58 55.02 0.93 53.18 4.82
4 1999 64 58.77 1.91 55.35 8.65
5 2000 69 63.59 2.93 59.44 9.56
6 2001 73 68.79 3.73 64.62 8.38
7 2002 75 73.39 4.03 70.10 4.90
8 2003 78 77.62 4.10 74.80 3.20
9 2004 81 81.47 4.01 79.06 1.94
10 2005 86 85.66 4.08 82.88 3.12
11 2006 89 89.48 3.99 87.09 1.91
12 2007 90 92.25 3.56 90.88 0.88
13 2008 92 94.48 3.09 93.50 1.50
14 2009 95 96.67 2.78 95.56 0.56
15 2010 101 99.99 2.97 99.45 1.55
16 2011 104 103.32 3.10 102.23 1.77
17 2012 107 106.62 3.17 105.01 1.99
Error: 4.03

AÑOS VENTA DE FRESA PRONÓSTICO

N° n=3 x X e=x-X Error Abs
1 1996 52
 2 1997 55
3 1998 58
4 1999 64 55 9 9 PRO
5 2000 69 59 10 10 120
6 2001 73 63.67 9.33 9.33
7 2002 75 68.67 6.33 6.33 100
f(x) = 1.0468476357
8 2003 78 72.33 5.67 5.67 R² = 0.9826011634
80
9 2004 81 75.33 5.67 5.67
10 2005 86 78 8.00 8.00 60
11 2006 89 81.67 7.33 7.33
12 2007 90 85.33 4.67 4.67 40
13 2008 92 88.33 3.67 3.67
20
14 2009 95 90.33 4.67 4.67
15 2010 101 92.33 8.67 8.67
0
16 2011 104 96.00 8.00 8.00 40 50 60 70
17 2012 107 100.00 7.00 7.00
 PROMEDIO SIMPLE
120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
VENTA DE FRESA x PRONÓSTICO X e=x-X

PROMEDIO PONDERADO
Periodo Peso (kg)
120
1 0.25
2 0.25 100
3 0.5
80

60

40

20

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
VENTA DE FRESA x PRONÓSTICO X e=x-X

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

120

100
 SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE
120

100
Alpha
0.35 80

60

40

20

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
VENTA DE FRESA x PRONÓSTICO X

Alfa 0.35
Beta 0.35
Gama 0.35

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL DOBLE

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
VENTA DE FRESA x Yt'
 PRONÓSTICO
120

100
f(x) = 1.0468476357x - 11.0288966725
R² = 0.9826011634
80

60

40

20

0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
009 2010 2011 2012
e=x-X
LE

08 2009 2010 2011 2012