Corrigé Survol

Demande Erreur de
N° de période Mois Moyenne
observée prévision
1 J 112 280.298611111111 -168.30
2 F 118 280.298611111111 -162.30
3 M 132 280.298611111111 -148.30
4 A 129 280.298611111111 -151.30
5 M 121 280.298611111111 -159.30
6 J 135 280.298611111111 -145.30
7 J 148 280.298611111111 -132.30
8 A 148 280.298611111111 -132.30
9 S 136 280.298611111111 -144.30
10 O 119 280.298611111111 -161.30
11 N 104 280.298611111111 -176.30
12 D 118 280.298611111111 -162.30
13 J 115 280.298611111111 -165.30
14 F 126 280.298611111111 -154.30
15 M 141 280.298611111111 -139.30
16 A 135 280.298611111111 -145.30
17 M 125 280.298611111111 -155.30
18 J 149 280.298611111111 -131.30
19 J 170 280.298611111111 -110.30
20 A 170 280.298611111111 -110.30
21 S 158 280.298611111111 -122.30
22 O 133 280.298611111111 -147.30
23 N 114 280.298611111111 -166.30
24 D 140 280.298611111111 -140.30
25 J 145 280.298611111111 -135.30
26 F 150 280.298611111111 -130.30
27 M 178 280.298611111111 -102.30
28 A 163 280.298611111111 -117.30
29 M 172 280.298611111111 -108.30
30 J 178 280.298611111111 -102.30
31 J 199 280.298611111111 -81.30
32 A 199 280.298611111111 -81.30
33 S 184 280.298611111111 -96.30
34 O 162 280.298611111111 -118.30
35 N 146 280.298611111111 -134.30
36 D 166 280.298611111111 -114.30
37 J 171 280.298611111111 -109.30
38 F 180 280.298611111111 -100.30
39 M 193 280.298611111111 -87.30
40 A 181 280.298611111111 -99.30
41 M 183 280.298611111111 -97.30
42 J 218 280.298611111111 -62.30
43 J 230 280.298611111111 -50.30
44 A 242 280.298611111111 -38.30
45 S 209 280.298611111111 -71.30
46 O 191 280.298611111111 -89.30
47 N 172 280.298611111111 -108.30
48 D 194 280.298611111111 -86.30
49 J 196 280.298611111111 -84.30
50 F 196 280.298611111111 -84.30
51 M 236 280.298611111111 -44.30
52 A 235 280.298611111111 -45.30
53 M 229 280.298611111111 -51.30
54 J 243 280.298611111111 -37.30
55 J 264 280.298611111111 -16.30
56 A 272 280.298611111111 -8.30
57 S 237 280.298611111111 -43.30
58 O 211 280.298611111111 -69.30
59 N 180 280.298611111111 -100.30
60 D 201 280.298611111111 -79.30
61 J 204 280.298611111111 -76.30
62 F 188 280.298611111111 -92.30
63 M 235 280.298611111111 -45.30
64 A 227 280.298611111111 -53.30
65 M 234 280.298611111111 -46.30
66 J 264 280.298611111111 -16.30
67 J 302 280.298611111111 21.70
68 A 293 280.298611111111 12.70
69 S 259 280.298611111111 -21.30
70 O 229 280.298611111111 -51.30
71 N 203 280.298611111111 -77.30
72 D 229 280.298611111111 -51.30
73 J 242 280.298611111111 -38.30
74 F 233 280.298611111111 -47.30
75 M 267 280.298611111111 -13.30
76 A 269 280.298611111111 -11.30
77 M 270 280.298611111111 -10.30
78 J 315 280.298611111111 34.70
79 J 364 280.298611111111 83.70
80 A 347 280.298611111111 66.70
81 S 312 280.298611111111 31.70
82 O 274 280.298611111111 -6.30
83 N 237 280.298611111111 -43.30
84 D 278 280.298611111111 -2.30
85 J 284 280.298611111111 3.70
86 F 277 280.298611111111 -3.30
87 M 317 280.298611111111 36.70
88 A 313 280.298611111111 32.70
89 M 318 280.298611111111 37.70
90 J 374 280.298611111111 93.70
91 J 413 280.298611111111 132.70
92 A 405 280.298611111111 124.70
93 S 355 280.298611111111 74.70
94 O 306 280.298611111111 25.70
95 N 271 280.298611111111 -9.30
96 D 306 280.298611111111 25.70
97 J 315 280.298611111111 34.70
98 F 301 280.298611111111 20.70
99 M 356 280.298611111111 75.70
100 A 348 280.298611111111 67.70
101 M 355 280.298611111111 74.70
102 J 422 280.298611111111 141.70
103 J 465 280.298611111111 184.70
104 A 467 280.298611111111 186.70
105 S 404 280.298611111111 123.70
106 O 347 280.298611111111 66.70
107 N 305 280.298611111111 24.70
108 D 336 280.298611111111 55.70
109 J 340 280.298611111111 59.70
110 F 318 280.298611111111 37.70
111 M 362 280.298611111111 81.70
112 A 348 280.298611111111 67.70
113 M 363 280.298611111111 82.70
114 J 435 280.298611111111 154.70
115 J 491 280.298611111111 210.70
116 A 505 280.298611111111 224.70
117 S 404 280.298611111111 123.70
118 O 359 280.298611111111 78.70
119 N 310 280.298611111111 29.70
120 D 337 280.298611111111 56.70
121 J 360 280.298611111111 79.70
122 F 342 280.298611111111 61.70
123 M 406 280.298611111111 125.70
124 A 396 280.298611111111 115.70
125 M 420 280.298611111111 139.70
126 J 472 280.298611111111 191.70
127 J 548 280.298611111111 267.70
128 A 559 280.298611111111 278.70
129 S 463 280.298611111111 182.70
130 O 407 280.298611111111 126.70
131 N 362 280.298611111111 81.70
132 D 405 280.298611111111 124.70
133 J 417 280.298611111111 136.70
134 F 391 280.298611111111 110.70
135 M 419 280.298611111111 138.70
136 A 461 280.298611111111 180.70
137 M 472 280.298611111111 191.70
138 J 535 280.298611111111 254.70
139 J 622 280.298611111111 341.70
140 A 606 280.298611111111 325.70
141 S 508 280.298611111111 227.70
142 O 461 280.298611111111 180.70
143 N 390 280.298611111111 109.70
144 D 432 280.298611111111 151.70

Erreur moyenne
Valeur absolue de Erreur de Valeur absolue de
Moyenne mobile 3 Moyenne mobile 6
l'erreur prévision l'erreur
168.30 0.00
162.30 0.00
148.30 0.00
151.30 120.67 8.33 8.33
159.30 126.33 -5.33 5.33
145.30 127.33 7.67 7.67
132.30 128.33 19.67 19.67 124.50
132.30 134.67 13.33 13.33 130.50
144.30 143.67 -7.67 7.67 135.50
161.30 144.00 -25.00 25.00 136.17
176.30 134.33 -30.33 30.33 134.50
162.30 119.67 -1.67 1.67 131.67
165.30 113.67 1.33 1.33 128.83
154.30 112.33 13.67 13.67 123.33
139.30 119.67 21.33 21.33 119.67
145.30 127.33 7.67 7.67 120.50
155.30 134.00 -9.00 9.00 123.17
131.30 133.67 15.33 15.33 126.67
110.30 136.33 33.67 33.67 131.83
110.30 148.00 22.00 22.00 141.00
122.30 163.00 -5.00 5.00 148.33
147.30 166.00 -33.00 33.00 151.17
166.30 153.67 -39.67 39.67 150.83
140.30 135.00 5.00 5.00 149.00
135.30 129.00 16.00 16.00 147.50
130.30 133.00 17.00 17.00 143.33
102.30 145.00 33.00 33.00 140.00
117.30 157.67 5.33 5.33 143.33
108.30 163.67 8.33 8.33 148.33
102.30 171.00 7.00 7.00 158.00
81.30 171.00 28.00 28.00 164.33
81.30 183.00 16.00 16.00 173.33
96.30 192.00 -8.00 8.00 181.50
118.30 194.00 -32.00 32.00 182.50
134.30 181.67 -35.67 35.67 182.33
114.30 164.00 2.00 2.00 178.00
109.30 158.00 13.00 13.00 176.00
100.30 161.00 19.00 19.00 171.33
87.30 172.33 20.67 20.67 168.17
99.30 181.33 -0.33 0.33 169.67
97.30 184.67 -1.67 1.67 172.83
62.30 185.67 32.33 32.33 179.00
50.30 194.00 36.00 36.00 187.67
38.30 210.33 31.67 31.67 197.50
71.30 230.00 -21.00 21.00 207.83
89.30 227.00 -36.00 36.00 210.50
108.30 214.00 -42.00 42.00 212.17
86.30 190.67 3.33 3.33 210.33
84.30 185.67 10.33 10.33 206.33
84.30 187.33 8.67 8.67 200.67
44.30 195.33 40.67 40.67 193.00
45.30 209.33 25.67 25.67 197.50
51.30 222.33 6.67 6.67 204.83
37.30 233.33 9.67 9.67 214.33
16.30 235.67 28.33 28.33 222.50
8.30 245.33 26.67 26.67 233.83
43.30 259.67 -22.67 22.67 246.50
69.30 257.67 -46.67 46.67 246.67
100.30 240.00 -60.00 60.00 242.67
79.30 209.33 -8.33 8.33 234.50
76.30 197.33 6.67 6.67 227.50
92.30 195.00 -7.00 7.00 217.50
45.30 197.67 37.33 37.33 203.50
53.30 209.00 18.00 18.00 203.17
46.30 216.67 17.33 17.33 205.83
16.30 232.00 32.00 32.00 214.83
21.70 241.67 60.33 60.33 225.33
12.70 266.67 26.33 26.33 241.67
21.30 286.33 -27.33 27.33 259.17
51.30 284.67 -55.67 55.67 263.17
77.30 260.33 -57.33 57.33 263.50
51.30 230.33 -1.33 1.33 258.33
38.30 220.33 21.67 21.67 252.50
47.30 224.67 8.33 8.33 242.50
13.30 234.67 32.33 32.33 232.50
11.30 247.33 21.67 21.67 233.83
10.30 256.33 13.67 13.67 240.50
34.70 268.67 46.33 46.33 251.67
83.70 284.67 79.33 79.33 266.00
66.70 316.33 30.67 30.67 286.33
31.70 342.00 -30.00 30.00 305.33
6.30 341.00 -67.00 67.00 312.83
43.30 311.00 -74.00 74.00 313.67
2.30 274.33 3.67 3.67 308.17
3.70 263.00 21.00 21.00 302.00
3.30 266.33 10.67 10.67 288.67
36.70 279.67 37.33 37.33 277.00
32.70 292.67 20.33 20.33 277.83
37.70 302.33 15.67 15.67 284.33
93.70 316.00 58.00 58.00 297.83
132.70 335.00 78.00 78.00 313.83
124.70 368.33 36.67 36.67 335.33
74.70 397.33 -42.33 42.33 356.67
25.70 391.00 -85.00 85.00 363.00
9.30 355.33 -84.33 84.33 361.83
25.70 310.67 -4.67 4.67 354.00
34.70 294.33 20.67 20.67 342.67
 20.70 297.33 3.67 3.67 326.33
75.70 307.33 48.67 48.67 309.00
67.70 324.00 24.00 24.00 309.17
74.70 335.00 20.00 20.00 316.17
141.70 353.00 69.00 69.00 330.17
184.70 375.00 90.00 90.00 349.50
186.70 414.00 53.00 53.00 374.50
123.70 451.33 -47.33 47.33 402.17
66.70 445.33 -98.33 98.33 410.17
24.70 406.00 -101.00 101.00 410.00
55.70 352.00 -16.00 16.00 401.67
59.70 329.33 10.67 10.67 387.33
37.70 327.00 -9.00 9.00 366.50
81.70 331.33 30.67 30.67 341.67
67.70 340.00 8.00 8.00 334.67
82.70 342.67 20.33 20.33 334.83
154.70 357.67 77.33 77.33 344.50
210.70 382.00 109.00 109.00 361.00
224.70 429.67 75.33 75.33 386.17
123.70 477.00 -73.00 73.00 417.33
78.70 466.67 -107.67 107.67 424.33
29.70 422.67 -112.67 112.67 426.17
56.70 357.67 -20.67 20.67 417.33
79.70 335.33 24.67 24.67 401.00
61.70 335.67 6.33 6.33 379.17
125.70 346.33 59.67 59.67 352.00
115.70 369.33 26.67 26.67 352.33
139.70 381.33 38.67 38.67 358.50
191.70 407.33 64.67 64.67 376.83
267.70 429.33 118.67 118.67 399.33
278.70 480.00 79.00 79.00 430.67
182.70 526.33 -63.33 63.33 466.83
126.70 523.33 -116.33 116.33 476.33
81.70 476.33 -114.33 114.33 478.17
124.70 410.67 -5.67 5.67 468.50
136.70 391.33 25.67 25.67 457.33
110.70 394.67 -3.67 3.67 435.50
138.70 404.33 14.67 14.67 407.50
180.70 409.00 52.00 52.00 400.17
191.70 423.67 48.33 48.33 409.17
254.70 450.67 84.33 84.33 427.50
341.70 489.33 132.67 132.67 449.17
325.70 543.00 63.00 63.00 483.33
227.70 587.67 -79.67 79.67 519.17
180.70 578.67 -117.67 117.67 534.00
109.70 525.00 -135.00 135.00 534.00
151.70 453.00 -21.00 21.00 520.33

100.44 Erreur moyenne 35.39

Erreur de Valeur absolue de Moyenne mobile Erreur de Valeur absolue de
prévision l'erreur 12 prévision l'erreur

7.80 7.80
1.80 1.80
8.80 8.80
25.13 25.13
41.80 41.80
30.63 30.63
36.47 36.47 126.67 -125.33 125.33
30.97 30.97 126.92 -113.25 113.25
19.63 19.63 127.58 -106.25 106.25
24.80 24.80 128.33 -120.67 120.67
32.13 32.13 128.83 -119.83 119.83
4.63 4.63 129.17 -113.83 113.83
-21.53 21.53 130.33 -96.67 96.67
-30.70 30.70 132.17 -110.17 110.17
-26.03 26.03 134.00 -129.00 129.00
-3.87 3.87 135.83 -102.83 102.83
15.47 15.47 137.00 -97.33 97.33
-8.70 8.70 137.83 -132.83 132.83
-12.20 12.20 139.67 -123.67 123.67
-13.03 13.03 142.17 -125.17 125.17
-37.70 37.70 144.17 -111.17 111.17
-26.03 26.03 147.25 -141.92 141.92
-40.03 40.03 149.58 -141.25 141.25
-55.70 55.70 153.50 -146.50 146.50
-83.03 83.03 155.92 -127.92 127.92
-92.03 92.03 158.33 -142.33 142.33
-85.20 85.20 160.75 -152.75 152.75
-64.20 64.20 162.92 -130.92 130.92
-48.03 48.03 165.33 -129.67 129.67
-63.70 63.70 168.00 -166.00 166.00
-66.70 66.70 170.17 -157.17 157.17
-71.03 71.03 172.33 -153.33 153.33
-80.87 80.87 174.83 -154.17 154.17
-70.37 70.37 176.08 -175.75 175.75
-75.53 75.53 177.58 -175.92 175.92
-116.70 116.70 178.50 -146.17 146.17
-137.37 137.37 181.83 -145.83 145.83
-159.20 159.20 184.42 -152.75 152.75
-136.53 136.53 188.00 -167.00 167.00
-121.20 121.20 190.08 -154.08 154.08
-103.87 103.87 192.50 -150.50 150.50
-124.03 124.03 194.67 -191.33 191.33
-122.03 122.03 197.00 -186.67 186.67
-116.37 116.37 199.08 -190.42 190.42
-148.70 148.70 200.42 -159.75 159.75
-152.20 152.20 204.00 -178.33 178.33
-153.53 153.53 208.50 -201.83 201.83
-177.03 177.03 212.33 -202.67 202.67
-206.20 206.20 214.42 -186.08 186.08
-225.53 225.53 217.25 -190.58 190.58
-203.20 203.20 219.75 -197.08 197.08
-177.37 177.37 222.08 -175.42 175.42
-142.37 142.37 223.75 -163.75 163.75
-155.20 155.20 224.42 -216.08 216.08
-151.20 151.20 225.00 -218.33 218.33
-125.20 125.20 225.67 -218.67 218.67
-158.20 158.20 225.00 -187.67 187.67
-149.87 149.87 224.92 -206.92 206.92
-159.53 159.53 224.25 -206.92 206.92
-198.53 198.53 224.67 -192.67 192.67
-203.63 203.63 226.42 -166.08 166.08
-228.97 228.97 229.58 -203.25 203.25
-237.87 237.87 231.33 -204.00 204.00
-211.87 211.87 233.17 -177.50 177.50
-186.20 186.20 234.67 -177.33 177.33
-207.03 207.03 236.58 -235.25 235.25
-214.20 214.20 238.92 -217.25 217.25
-195.20 195.20 242.08 -233.75 233.75
-219.20 219.20 245.83 -213.50 213.50
-222.53 222.53 248.50 -226.83 226.83
-230.20 230.20 252.00 -238.33 238.33
-216.97 216.97 255.00 -208.67 208.67
-182.30 182.30 259.25 -179.92 179.92
-219.63 219.63 264.42 -233.75 233.75
-273.63 273.63 268.92 -238.92 238.92
-306.53 306.53 273.33 -206.33 206.33
-270.37 270.37 277.08 -203.08 203.08
-305.87 305.87 279.92 -276.25 276.25
-298.30 298.30 284.00 -263.00 263.00
-285.37 285.37 287.50 -276.83 276.83
-240.30 240.30 291.17 -253.83 253.83
-245.13 245.13 295.33 -275.00 275.00
-246.63 246.63 299.00 -283.33 283.33
-204.13 204.13 303.00 -245.00 245.00
-181.13 181.13 307.92 -229.92 229.92
-210.63 210.63 312.00 -275.33 275.33
-281.97 281.97 316.83 -274.50 274.50
-337.30 337.30 320.42 -235.42 235.42
-352.53 352.53 323.08 -238.75 238.75
-328.30 328.30 325.92 -321.25 321.25
-307.97 307.97 328.25 -307.58 307.58
 -305.63 305.63 330.83 -327.17 327.17
-233.30 233.30 332.83 -284.17 284.17
-241.47 241.47 336.08 -312.08 312.08
-241.47 241.47 339.00 -319.00 319.00
-188.47 188.47 342.08 -273.08 273.08
-164.80 164.80 346.08 -256.08 256.08
-187.80 187.80 350.42 -297.42 297.42
-278.47 278.47 355.58 -308.25 308.25
-343.47 343.47 359.67 -261.33 261.33
-385.30 385.30 363.08 -262.08 262.08
-345.97 345.97 365.92 -349.92 349.92
-327.63 327.63 368.42 -357.75 357.75
-328.80 328.80 370.50 -361.50 361.50
-259.97 259.97 371.92 -341.25 341.25
-266.97 266.97 372.42 -364.42 364.42
-252.13 252.13 372.42 -352.08 352.08
-189.80 189.80 373.08 -295.75 295.75
-150.30 150.30 374.17 -265.17 265.17
-161.47 161.47 376.33 -301.00 301.00
-293.63 293.63 379.50 -306.50 306.50
-345.63 345.63 379.50 -271.83 271.83
-396.47 396.47 380.50 -267.83 267.83
-360.63 360.63 380.92 -360.25 360.25
-321.30 321.30 381.00 -356.33 356.33
-317.47 317.47 382.67 -376.33 376.33
-226.30 226.30 384.67 -325.00 325.00
-236.63 236.63 388.33 -361.67 361.67
-218.80 218.80 392.33 -353.67 353.67
-185.13 185.13 397.08 -332.42 332.42
-131.63 131.63 400.17 -281.50 281.50
-151.97 151.97 404.92 -325.92 325.92
-284.13 284.13 409.42 -346.08 346.08
-349.63 349.63 414.33 -298.00 298.00
-396.47 396.47 418.33 -304.00 304.00
-343.80 343.80 422.67 -417.00 417.00
-320.63 320.63 428.33 -402.67 402.67
-324.80 324.80 433.08 -429.42 429.42
-268.80 268.80 437.17 -422.50 422.50
-219.47 219.47 438.25 -386.25 386.25
-217.47 217.47 443.67 -395.33 395.33
-172.80 172.80 448.00 -363.67 363.67
-107.47 107.47 453.25 -320.58 320.58
-157.63 157.63 459.42 -396.42 396.42
-291.47 291.47 463.33 -383.67 383.67
-353.30 353.30 467.08 -349.42 349.42
-424.30 424.30 471.58 -336.58 336.58
-368.63 368.63 473.92 -452.92 452.92

Erreur moyenne 184.56 Erreur moyenne 238.97

 Historique et moyennes
Historique Moyenne Moyenne mobiles 3
Moyennes mobiles 6 Moyennes mobiles 12
700.00

600.00

500.00

400.00

300.00

200.00

100.00

0.00
J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O

périodes
Corrigé Survol

N° de période Mois Demande observée Ajustement Erreur de prévision

1.00 J 112.00 90.31 21.69
2.00 F 118.00 92.97 25.03
3.00 M 132.00 95.62 36.38
4.00 A 129.00 98.28 30.72
5.00 M 121.00 100.94 20.06
6.00 J 135.00 103.60 31.40
7.00 J 148.00 106.25 41.75
8.00 A 148.00 108.91 39.09
9.00 S 136.00 111.57 24.43
10.00 O 119.00 114.23 4.78
11.00 N 104.00 116.88 -12.88
12.00 D 118.00 119.54 -1.54
13.00 J 115.00 122.20 -7.20
14.00 F 126.00 124.85 1.15
15.00 M 141.00 127.51 13.49
16.00 A 135.00 130.17 4.83
17.00 M 125.00 132.83 -7.83
18.00 J 149.00 135.48 13.52
19.00 J 170.00 138.14 31.86
20.00 A 170.00 140.80 29.20
21.00 S 158.00 143.45 14.55
22.00 O 133.00 146.11 -13.11
23.00 N 114.00 148.77 -34.77
24.00 D 140.00 151.43 -11.43
25.00 J 145.00 154.08 -9.08
26.00 F 150.00 156.74 -6.74
27.00 M 178.00 159.40 18.60
28.00 A 163.00 162.05 0.95
29.00 M 172.00 164.71 7.29
30.00 J 178.00 167.37 10.63
31.00 J 199.00 170.03 28.97
32.00 A 199.00 172.68 26.32
33.00 S 184.00 175.34 8.66
34.00 O 162.00 178.00 -16.00
35.00 N 146.00 180.66 -34.66
36.00 D 166.00 183.31 -17.31
37.00 J 171.00 185.97 -14.97
38.00 F 180.00 188.63 -8.63
39.00 M 193.00 191.28 1.72
40.00 A 181.00 193.94 -12.94
41.00 M 183.00 196.60 -13.60
42.00 J 218.00 199.26 18.74
43.00 J 230.00 201.91 28.09
44.00 A 242.00 204.57 37.43
45.00 S 209.00 207.23 1.77
46.00 O 191.00 209.88 -18.88
47.00 N 172.00 212.54 -40.54
48.00 D 194.00 215.20 -21.20
49.00 J 196.00 217.86 -21.86
50.00 F 196.00 220.51 -24.51
51.00 M 236.00 223.17 12.83
52.00 A 235.00 225.83 9.17
53.00 M 229.00 228.48 0.52
54.00 J 243.00 231.14 11.86
55.00 J 264.00 233.80 30.20
56.00 A 272.00 236.46 35.54
57.00 S 237.00 239.11 -2.11
58.00 O 211.00 241.77 -30.77
59.00 N 180.00 244.43 -64.43
60.00 D 201.00 247.09 -46.09
61.00 J 204.00 249.74 -45.74
62.00 F 188.00 252.40 -64.40
63.00 M 235.00 255.06 -20.06
64.00 A 227.00 257.71 -30.71
65.00 M 234.00 260.37 -26.37
66.00 J 264.00 263.03 0.97
67.00 J 302.00 265.69 36.31
68.00 A 293.00 268.34 24.66
69.00 S 259.00 271.00 -12.00
70.00 O 229.00 273.66 -44.66
71.00 N 203.00 276.31 -73.31
72.00 D 229.00 278.97 -49.97
73.00 J 242.00 281.63 -39.63
74.00 F 233.00 284.29 -51.29
75.00 M 267.00 286.94 -19.94
76.00 A 269.00 289.60 -20.60
77.00 M 270.00 292.26 -22.26
78.00 J 315.00 294.91 20.09
79.00 J 364.00 297.57 66.43
80.00 A 347.00 300.23 46.77
81.00 S 312.00 302.89 9.11
82.00 O 274.00 305.54 -31.54
83.00 N 237.00 308.20 -71.20
84.00 D 278.00 310.86 -32.86
85.00 J 284.00 313.52 -29.52
86.00 F 277.00 316.17 -39.17
87.00 M 317.00 318.83 -1.83
88.00 A 313.00 321.49 -8.49
89.00 M 318.00 324.14 -6.14
90.00 J 374.00 326.80 47.20
91.00 J 413.00 329.46 83.54
92.00 A 405.00 332.12 72.88
93.00 S 355.00 334.77 20.23
94.00 O 306.00 337.43 -31.43
95.00 N 271.00 340.09 -69.09
96.00 D 306.00 342.74 -36.74
97.00 J 315.00 345.40 -30.40
98.00 F 301.00 348.06 -47.06
 99.00 M 356.00 350.72 5.28
100.00 A 348.00 353.37 -5.37
101.00 M 355.00 356.03 -1.03
102.00 J 422.00 358.69 63.31
103.00 J 465.00 361.34 103.66
104.00 A 467.00 364.00 103.00
105.00 S 404.00 366.66 37.34
106.00 O 347.00 369.32 -22.32
107.00 N 305.00 371.97 -66.97
108.00 D 336.00 374.63 -38.63
109.00 J 340.00 377.29 -37.29
110.00 F 318.00 379.95 -61.95
111.00 M 362.00 382.60 -20.60
112.00 A 348.00 385.26 -37.26
113.00 M 363.00 387.92 -24.92
114.00 J 435.00 390.57 44.43
115.00 J 491.00 393.23 97.77
116.00 A 505.00 395.89 109.11
117.00 S 404.00 398.55 5.45
118.00 O 359.00 401.20 -42.20
119.00 N 310.00 403.86 -93.86
120.00 D 337.00 406.52 -69.52
121.00 J 360.00 409.17 -49.17
122.00 F 342.00 411.83 -69.83
123.00 M 406.00 414.49 -8.49
124.00 A 396.00 417.15 -21.15
125.00 M 420.00 419.80 0.20
126.00 J 472.00 422.46 49.54
127.00 J 548.00 425.12 122.88
128.00 A 559.00 427.77 131.23
129.00 S 463.00 430.43 32.57
130.00 O 407.00 433.09 -26.09
131.00 N 362.00 435.75 -73.75
132.00 D 405.00 438.40 -33.40
133.00 J 417.00 441.06 -24.06
134.00 F 391.00 443.72 -52.72
135.00 M 419.00 446.38 -27.38
136.00 A 461.00 449.03 11.97
137.00 M 472.00 451.69 20.31
138.00 J 535.00 454.35 80.65
139.00 J 622.00 457.00 165.00
140.00 A 606.00 459.66 146.34
141.00 S 508.00 462.32 45.68
142.00 O 461.00 464.98 -3.98
143.00 N 390.00 467.63 -77.63
144.00 D 432.00 470.29 -38.29

Erreur moyenne
Valeur absolue de l'erreur
21.69
25.03
36.38
30.72
20.06
31.40
41.75
39.09
24.43
4.78
12.88
1.54
7.20
1.15
13.49
4.83
7.83
13.52
31.86
29.20
14.55
13.11
34.77
11.43
9.08
6.74
18.60
0.95
7.29
10.63
28.97
26.32
8.66
16.00
34.66
17.31
14.97
8.63
1.72
12.94
13.60
18.74
28.09
37.43
1.77
18.88
40.54
21.20
21.86
24.51
12.83
9.17
0.52
11.86
30.20
35.54
2.11
30.77
64.43
46.09
45.74
64.40
20.06
30.71
26.37
0.97
36.31
24.66
12.00
44.66
73.31
49.97
39.63
51.29
19.94
20.60
22.26
20.09
66.43
46.77
9.11
31.54
71.20
32.86
29.52
39.17
1.83
8.49
6.14
47.20
83.54
72.88
20.23
31.43
69.09
36.74
30.40
47.06
 5.28
5.37
1.03
63.31
103.66
103.00
37.34
22.32
66.97
38.63
37.29
61.95
20.60
37.26
24.92
44.43
97.77
109.11
5.45
42.20
93.86
69.52
49.17
69.83
8.49
21.15
0.20
49.54
122.88
131.23
32.57
26.09
73.75
33.40
24.06
52.72
27.38
11.97
20.31
80.65
165.00
146.34
45.68
3.98
77.63
38.29

34.41
 Historique et ajustement lineaire
Historique Linear (Historique)
700.00

600.00

500.00

f(x) = 2.65718390804598 x + 87.6527777777775

400.00

300.00

200.00

100.00

0.00
J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O

périodes
Corrigé Survol

Demande
N° de période N° de période alpha beta gamma at bt
observée

J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D 120.00 2.00
1 J 112 0.5 0.2 0.1 128.22 3.24
2 F 118 0.5 0.2 0.1 135.75 4.10
3 M 132 0.5 0.2 0.1 126.61 1.45
4 A 129 0.5 0.2 0.1 119.94 -0.17
5 M 121 0.5 0.2 0.1 110.31 -2.06
6 J 135 0.5 0.2 0.1 95.79 -4.55
7 J 148 0.5 0.2 0.1 82.64 -6.27
8 A 148 0.5 0.2 0.1 87.25 -4.10
9 S 136 0.5 0.2 0.1 118.31 2.94
10 O 119 0.5 0.2 0.1 148.14 8.31
11 N 104 0.5 0.2 0.1 171.38 11.30
12 D 118 0.5 0.2 0.1 171.19 9.00
13 J 115 0.5 0.2 0.1 158.50 4.66
14 F 126 0.5 0.2 0.1 155.38 3.11
15 M 141 0.5 0.2 0.1 141.09 -0.37
16 A 135 0.5 0.2 0.1 129.67 -2.58
17 M 125 0.5 0.2 0.1 116.45 -4.71
18 J 149 0.5 0.2 0.1 105.16 -6.03
19 J 170 0.5 0.2 0.1 98.01 -6.25
20 A 170 0.5 0.2 0.1 105.40 -3.52
21 S 158 0.5 0.2 0.1 136.92 3.49
22 O 133 0.5 0.2 0.1 163.37 8.08
23 N 114 0.5 0.2 0.1 183.14 10.42
24 D 140 0.5 0.2 0.1 188.20 9.35
25 J 145 0.5 0.2 0.1 183.26 6.49
26 F 150 0.5 0.2 0.1 181.07 4.75
27 M 178 0.5 0.2 0.1 174.13 2.41
28 A 163 0.5 0.2 0.1 162.13 -0.47
29 M 172 0.5 0.2 0.1 157.77 -1.25
30 J 178 0.5 0.2 0.1 142.38 -4.08
31 J 199 0.5 0.2 0.1 132.16 -5.31
32 A 199 0.5 0.2 0.1 136.76 -3.32
33 S 184 0.5 0.2 0.1 163.95 2.78
34 O 162 0.5 0.2 0.1 189.88 7.41
35 N 146 0.5 0.2 0.1 211.48 10.25
36 D 166 0.5 0.2 0.1 215.55 9.01
37 J 171 0.5 0.2 0.1 210.49 6.20
38 F 180 0.5 0.2 0.1 209.97 4.85
39 M 193 0.5 0.2 0.1 196.71 1.23
40 A 181 0.5 0.2 0.1 182.56 -1.85
41 M 183 0.5 0.2 0.1 172.98 -3.39
42 J 218 0.5 0.2 0.1 169.62 -3.38
43 J 230 0.5 0.2 0.1 161.93 -4.25
44 A 242 0.5 0.2 0.1 173.18 -1.15
45 S 209 0.5 0.2 0.1 194.22 3.29
46 O 191 0.5 0.2 0.1 218.62 7.51
47 N 172 0.5 0.2 0.1 238.18 9.92
48 D 194 0.5 0.2 0.1 243.05 8.91
49 J 196 0.5 0.2 0.1 237.39 6.00
50 F 196 0.5 0.2 0.1 231.65 3.65
51 M 236 0.5 0.2 0.1 229.36 2.46
52 A 235 0.5 0.2 0.1 227.26 1.55
53 M 229 0.5 0.2 0.1 220.42 -0.13
54 J 243 0.5 0.2 0.1 207.47 -2.69
55 J 264 0.5 0.2 0.1 198.42 -3.97
56 A 272 0.5 0.2 0.1 205.79 -1.70
57 S 237 0.5 0.2 0.1 223.14 2.11
58 O 211 0.5 0.2 0.1 241.43 5.35
59 N 180 0.5 0.2 0.1 251.91 6.37
60 D 201 0.5 0.2 0.1 251.89 5.10
61 J 204 0.5 0.2 0.1 244.63 2.62
62 F 188 0.5 0.2 0.1 230.17 -0.79
63 M 235 0.5 0.2 0.1 226.20 -1.43
64 A 227 0.5 0.2 0.1 219.97 -2.39
65 M 234 0.5 0.2 0.1 217.72 -2.36
66 J 264 0.5 0.2 0.1 216.15 -2.20
67 J 302 0.5 0.2 0.1 222.32 -0.53
68 A 293 0.5 0.2 0.1 229.39 0.99
69 S 259 0.5 0.2 0.1 246.34 4.18
70 O 229 0.5 0.2 0.1 262.26 6.53
71 N 203 0.5 0.2 0.1 274.15 7.60
72 D 229 0.5 0.2 0.1 277.95 6.84
73 J 242 0.5 0.2 0.1 278.15 5.51
74 F 233 0.5 0.2 0.1 271.73 3.13
75 M 267 0.5 0.2 0.1 265.10 1.17
76 A 269 0.5 0.2 0.1 261.96 0.31
77 M 270 0.5 0.2 0.1 258.06 -0.53
78 J 315 0.5 0.2 0.1 262.69 0.50
79 J 364 0.5 0.2 0.1 277.52 3.37
80 A 347 0.5 0.2 0.1 285.57 4.30
81 S 312 0.5 0.2 0.1 301.78 6.69
82 O 274 0.5 0.2 0.1 313.14 7.62
83 N 237 0.5 0.2 0.1 316.87 6.84
84 D 278 0.5 0.2 0.1 323.62 6.82
 85 J 284 0.5 0.2 0.1 322.31 5.20
86 F 277 0.5 0.2 0.1 316.25 2.95
87 M 317 0.5 0.2 0.1 312.75 1.66
88 A 313 0.5 0.2 0.1 308.24 0.42
89 M 318 0.5 0.2 0.1 305.47 -0.22
90 J 374 0.5 0.2 0.1 315.80 1.89
91 J 413 0.5 0.2 0.1 328.55 4.07
92 A 405 0.5 0.2 0.1 340.20 5.58
93 S 355 0.5 0.2 0.1 350.64 6.55
94 O 306 0.5 0.2 0.1 353.27 5.77
95 N 271 0.5 0.2 0.1 353.21 4.60
96 D 306 0.5 0.2 0.1 354.67 3.97
97 J 315 0.5 0.2 0.1 352.32 2.71
98 F 301 0.5 0.2 0.1 342.57 0.22
99 M 356 0.5 0.2 0.1 344.37 0.53
100 A 348 0.5 0.2 0.1 341.30 -0.19
101 M 355 0.5 0.2 0.1 340.35 -0.34
102 J 422 0.5 0.2 0.1 356.65 2.99
103 J 465 0.5 0.2 0.1 374.99 6.06
104 A 467 0.5 0.2 0.1 395.03 8.86
105 S 404 0.5 0.2 0.1 403.95 8.87
106 O 347 0.5 0.2 0.1 401.78 6.66
107 N 305 0.5 0.2 0.1 395.20 4.01
108 D 336 0.5 0.2 0.1 390.53 2.28
109 J 340 0.5 0.2 0.1 382.21 0.16
110 F 318 0.5 0.2 0.1 365.37 -3.24
111 M 362 0.5 0.2 0.1 356.96 -4.28
112 A 348 0.5 0.2 0.1 345.37 -5.74
113 M 363 0.5 0.2 0.1 343.65 -4.94
114 J 435 0.5 0.2 0.1 361.67 -0.34
115 J 491 0.5 0.2 0.1 388.06 5.00
116 A 505 0.5 0.2 0.1 419.34 10.26
117 S 404 0.5 0.2 0.1 416.80 7.70
118 O 359 0.5 0.2 0.1 414.18 5.63
119 N 310 0.5 0.2 0.1 404.04 2.48
120 D 337 0.5 0.2 0.1 395.12 0.20
121 J 360 0.5 0.2 0.1 394.00 -0.06
122 F 342 0.5 0.2 0.1 384.00 -2.05
123 M 406 0.5 0.2 0.1 389.13 -0.62
124 A 396 0.5 0.2 0.1 387.65 -0.79
125 M 420 0.5 0.2 0.1 395.56 0.95
126 J 472 0.5 0.2 0.1 407.92 3.23
127 J 548 0.5 0.2 0.1 440.14 9.03
128 A 559 0.5 0.2 0.1 473.08 13.81
129 S 463 0.5 0.2 0.1 475.59 11.55
130 O 407 0.5 0.2 0.1 470.01 8.13
131 N 362 0.5 0.2 0.1 460.00 4.50
132 D 405 0.5 0.2 0.1 458.67 3.33
133 J 417 0.5 0.2 0.1 455.91 2.11
134 F 391 0.5 0.2 0.1 441.04 -1.28
135 M 419 0.5 0.2 0.1 424.18 -4.40
136 A 461 0.5 0.2 0.1 435.82 -1.19
137 M 472 0.5 0.2 0.1 445.02 0.89
138 J 535 0.5 0.2 0.1 463.54 4.41
139 J 622 0.5 0.2 0.1 504.09 11.64
140 A 606 0.5 0.2 0.1 528.67 14.23
141 S 508 0.5 0.2 0.1 526.66 10.98
142 O 461 0.5 0.2 0.1 523.11 8.08
143 N 390 0.5 0.2 0.1 501.43 2.12
144 D 432 0.5 0.2 0.1 492.00 -0.19
 Prévisions
Erreur de Valeur absolue de
gammat Modèle multiplicatif
prévision l'erreur

-22.43
-22.03
18.63
17.19
20.15
51.66
73.96
49.87
-17.48
-56.02
-82.32
-41.69
-21.81 99.57 12.43 12.43
-21.61 109.43 8.57 8.57
17.30 158.47 -26.47 26.47
16.38 145.25 -16.25 16.25
19.20 139.91 -18.91 18.91
50.42 159.91 -24.91 24.91
73.10 165.20 -17.20 17.20
50.96 126.24 21.76 21.76
-13.96 65.67 70.33 70.33
-53.33 65.23 53.77 53.77
-80.83 74.13 29.87 29.87
-42.84 140.99 -22.99 22.99
-23.98 158.38 -43.38 43.38
-22.38 141.56 -15.56 15.56
15.56 175.79 -34.79 34.79
15.27 157.10 -22.10 22.10
18.14 146.29 -21.29 21.29
49.76 162.15 -13.15 13.15
72.99 172.24 -2.24 2.24
52.32 142.73 27.27 27.27
-10.46 87.91 70.09 70.09
-51.04 87.07 45.93 45.93
-79.66 90.62 23.38 23.38
-43.38 150.71 -10.71 10.71
-25.41 173.56 -28.56 28.56
-23.25 167.37 -17.37 17.37
14.39 201.38 -23.38 23.38
13.83 191.81 -28.81 28.81
17.75 179.80 -7.80 7.80
48.35 206.28 -28.28 28.28
72.38 211.30 -12.30 12.30
53.32 179.18 19.82 19.82
-7.41 122.98 61.02 61.02
-48.72 115.69 46.31 46.31
-78.24 117.64 28.36 28.36
-44.00 178.34 -12.34 12.34
-26.82 199.15 -28.15 28.15
-23.92 193.43 -13.43 13.43
12.58 229.21 -36.21 36.21
12.29 211.78 -30.78 30.78
16.97 198.46 -15.46 15.46
48.35 217.94 0.06 0.06
71.95 238.62 -8.62 8.62
54.87 211.00 31.00 31.00
-5.19 164.63 44.37 44.37
-46.61 148.79 42.21 42.21
-77.03 147.89 24.11 24.11
-44.50 204.11 -10.11 10.11
-28.27 225.15 -29.15 29.15
-25.10 219.46 -23.46 23.46
11.99 247.89 -11.89 11.89
11.84 244.11 -9.11 9.11
16.13 245.79 -16.79 16.79
47.07 268.64 -25.64 25.64
71.31 276.73 -12.73 12.73
56.00 249.32 22.68 22.68
-3.29 198.90 38.10 38.10
-44.99 178.64 32.36 32.36
-76.52 169.75 10.25 10.25
-45.14 213.78 -12.78 12.78
-29.51 228.71 -24.71 24.71
-26.80 222.16 -34.16 34.16
11.67 241.37 -6.37 6.37
11.36 236.60 -9.60 9.60
16.15 233.71 0.29 0.29
47.14 262.43 1.57 1.57
72.15 285.25 16.75 16.75
56.76 277.79 15.21 15.21
-1.69 227.10 31.90 31.90
-43.82 205.53 23.47 23.47
-75.98 192.27 10.73 10.73
-45.52 236.62 -7.62 7.62
-30.17 255.28 -13.28 13.28
-28.00 256.86 -23.86 23.86
10.69 286.53 -19.53 19.53
10.92 277.63 -8.63 8.63
15.73 278.42 -8.42 8.42
47.66 304.68 10.32 10.32
73.58 335.34 28.66 28.66
57.23 337.65 9.35 9.35
-0.50 288.18 23.82 23.82
-43.35 264.65 9.35 9.35
-76.37 244.78 -7.78 7.78
-45.53 278.20 -0.20 0.20
-30.99 300.27 -16.27 16.27
-29.12 299.51 -22.51 22.51
10.05 329.89 -12.89 12.89
10.31 325.33 -12.33 12.33
15.41 324.39 -6.39 6.39
48.72 352.91 21.09 21.09
74.67 391.27 21.73 21.73
57.99 389.85 15.15 15.15
-0.01 345.28 9.72 9.72
-43.74 313.84 -7.84 7.84
-76.96 282.67 -11.67 11.67
-45.84 312.28 -6.28 6.28
-31.62 327.66 -12.66 12.66
-30.37 325.90 -24.90 24.90
10.21 352.84 3.16 3.16
9.95 355.21 -7.21 7.21
15.33 356.52 -1.52 1.52
50.38 388.73 33.27 33.27
76.20 434.30 30.70 30.70
59.38 439.03 27.97 27.97
-0.01 403.87 0.13 0.13
-44.85 369.07 -22.07 22.07
-78.28 331.49 -26.49 26.49
-46.71 353.37 -17.37 17.37
-32.68 361.18 -21.18 21.18
-32.07 352.00 -34.00 34.00
9.69 372.33 -10.33 10.33
9.22 362.63 -14.63 14.63
15.73 354.96 8.04 8.04
52.67 389.09 45.91 45.91
78.88 437.52 53.48 53.48
62.01 452.45 52.55 52.55
-1.29 429.59 -25.59 25.59
-45.88 379.65 -20.65 20.65
-79.86 341.53 -31.53 31.53
-47.85 359.81 -22.81 22.81
-32.81 362.64 -2.64 2.64
-33.06 361.87 -19.87 19.87
10.41 391.64 14.36 14.36
9.13 397.73 -1.73 1.73
16.60 402.59 17.41 17.41
53.81 449.19 22.81 22.81
81.77 490.03 57.97 57.97
64.40 511.18 47.82 47.82
-2.42 485.60 -22.60 22.60
-47.59 441.26 -34.26 34.26
-81.67 398.28 -36.28 36.28
-48.44 416.64 -11.64 11.64
-33.42 429.20 -12.20 12.20
-34.76 424.96 -33.96 33.96
8.85 450.17 -31.17 31.17
10.73 428.91 32.09 32.09
17.64 451.24 20.76 20.76
55.58 499.72 35.28 35.28
85.39 549.73 72.27 72.27
65.70 580.14 25.86 25.86
-4.04 540.48 -32.48 32.48
-49.05 490.04 -29.04 29.04
-84.65 449.52 -59.52 59.52
-49.59 455.12 -23.12 23.12

Moyenne 22.58
 Historique et modèles de prévision
erreur absolue moyenne = 22,58
700.00

600.00

500.00

400.00

300.00

200.00

100.00

0.00
J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O

-100.00

périodes
Corrigé Survol

Demande
N° de période N° de période alpha beta gamma at bt
observée

J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D 120.00 2.00
1 J 112 0.5 0.2 0.1 119.69 1.54
2 F 118 0.5 0.2 0.1 125.49 2.39
3 M 132 0.5 0.2 0.1 127.76 2.37
4 A 129 0.5 0.2 0.1 128.97 2.14
5 M 121 0.5 0.2 0.1 124.74 0.86
6 J 135 0.5 0.2 0.1 120.85 -0.09
7 J 148 0.5 0.2 0.1 116.75 -0.89
8 A 148 0.5 0.2 0.1 115.46 -0.97
9 S 136 0.5 0.2 0.1 118.34 -0.20
10 O 119 0.5 0.2 0.1 120.74 0.32
11 N 104 0.5 0.2 0.1 123.01 0.71
12 D 118 0.5 0.2 0.1 125.20 1.01
13 J 115 0.5 0.2 0.1 123.48 0.46
14 F 126 0.5 0.2 0.1 131.01 1.87
15 M 141 0.5 0.2 0.1 134.62 2.22
16 A 135 0.5 0.2 0.1 135.36 1.93
17 M 125 0.5 0.2 0.1 130.10 0.49
18 J 149 0.5 0.2 0.1 129.62 0.29
19 J 170 0.5 0.2 0.1 129.92 0.30
20 A 170 0.5 0.2 0.1 131.22 0.50
21 S 158 0.5 0.2 0.1 136.61 1.47
22 O 133 0.5 0.2 0.1 137.82 1.42
23 N 114 0.5 0.2 0.1 137.99 1.17
24 D 140 0.5 0.2 0.1 144.64 2.27
25 J 145 0.5 0.2 0.1 149.75 2.84
26 F 150 0.5 0.2 0.1 158.04 3.93
27 M 178 0.5 0.2 0.1 166.94 4.92
28 A 163 0.5 0.2 0.1 166.85 3.92
29 M 172 0.5 0.2 0.1 170.42 3.85
30 J 178 0.5 0.2 0.1 164.03 1.80
31 J 199 0.5 0.2 0.1 158.97 0.43
32 A 199 0.5 0.2 0.1 157.03 -0.05
33 S 184 0.5 0.2 0.1 160.59 0.68
34 O 162 0.5 0.2 0.1 164.42 1.31
35 N 146 0.5 0.2 0.1 170.51 2.26
36 D 166 0.5 0.2 0.1 175.05 2.72
37 J 171 0.5 0.2 0.1 178.69 2.90
38 F 180 0.5 0.2 0.1 188.56 4.30
39 M 193 0.5 0.2 0.1 189.35 3.60
40 A 181 0.5 0.2 0.1 186.60 2.33
41 M 183 0.5 0.2 0.1 184.95 1.53
42 J 218 0.5 0.2 0.1 188.01 1.84
43 J 230 0.5 0.2 0.1 183.20 0.51
44 A 242 0.5 0.2 0.1 186.04 0.97
45 S 209 0.5 0.2 0.1 186.55 0.88
46 O 191 0.5 0.2 0.1 192.31 1.86
47 N 172 0.5 0.2 0.1 200.05 3.03
48 D 194 0.5 0.2 0.1 205.03 3.42
49 J 196 0.5 0.2 0.1 207.11 3.15
50 F 196 0.5 0.2 0.1 211.19 3.34
51 M 236 0.5 0.2 0.1 221.10 4.65
52 A 235 0.5 0.2 0.1 230.29 5.56
53 M 229 0.5 0.2 0.1 231.41 4.67
54 J 243 0.5 0.2 0.1 223.59 2.17
55 J 264 0.5 0.2 0.1 214.58 -0.06
56 A 272 0.5 0.2 0.1 212.98 -0.37
57 S 237 0.5 0.2 0.1 211.84 -0.52
58 O 211 0.5 0.2 0.1 214.31 0.07
59 N 180 0.5 0.2 0.1 214.63 0.12
60 D 201 0.5 0.2 0.1 214.49 0.07
61 J 204 0.5 0.2 0.1 214.43 0.05
62 F 188 0.5 0.2 0.1 208.92 -1.07
63 M 235 0.5 0.2 0.1 216.95 0.75
64 A 227 0.5 0.2 0.1 222.04 1.62
65 M 234 0.5 0.2 0.1 228.02 2.49
66 J 264 0.5 0.2 0.1 230.57 2.50
67 J 302 0.5 0.2 0.1 233.48 2.59
68 A 293 0.5 0.2 0.1 232.00 1.77
69 S 259 0.5 0.2 0.1 232.26 1.47
70 O 229 0.5 0.2 0.1 234.62 1.65
71 N 203 0.5 0.2 0.1 239.29 2.25
72 D 229 0.5 0.2 0.1 242.82 2.51
73 J 242 0.5 0.2 0.1 249.78 3.40
74 F 233 0.5 0.2 0.1 252.95 3.35
75 M 267 0.5 0.2 0.1 256.03 3.30
76 A 269 0.5 0.2 0.1 263.53 4.14
77 M 270 0.5 0.2 0.1 267.64 4.13
78 J 315 0.5 0.2 0.1 273.48 4.47
79 J 364 0.5 0.2 0.1 279.91 4.86
80 A 347 0.5 0.2 0.1 277.59 3.43
81 S 312 0.5 0.2 0.1 279.59 3.14
82 O 274 0.5 0.2 0.1 282.20 3.04
83 N 237 0.5 0.2 0.1 283.89 2.77
84 D 278 0.5 0.2 0.1 291.42 3.72
 85 J 284 0.5 0.2 0.1 296.48 3.99
86 F 277 0.5 0.2 0.1 300.47 3.99
87 M 317 0.5 0.2 0.1 304.07 3.91
88 A 313 0.5 0.2 0.1 309.51 4.22
89 M 318 0.5 0.2 0.1 314.46 4.36
90 J 374 0.5 0.2 0.1 322.67 5.13
91 J 413 0.5 0.2 0.1 323.69 4.31
92 A 405 0.5 0.2 0.1 322.22 3.15
93 S 355 0.5 0.2 0.1 321.01 2.28
94 O 306 0.5 0.2 0.1 318.96 1.42
95 N 271 0.5 0.2 0.1 321.80 1.70
96 D 306 0.5 0.2 0.1 324.49 1.90
97 J 315 0.5 0.2 0.1 328.29 2.28
98 F 301 0.5 0.2 0.1 328.54 1.87
99 M 356 0.5 0.2 0.1 335.74 2.94
100 A 348 0.5 0.2 0.1 342.17 3.64
101 M 355 0.5 0.2 0.1 348.79 4.23
102 J 422 0.5 0.2 0.1 360.51 5.73
103 J 465 0.5 0.2 0.1 363.26 5.13
104 A 467 0.5 0.2 0.1 366.96 4.85
105 S 404 0.5 0.2 0.1 366.33 3.75
106 O 347 0.5 0.2 0.1 363.68 2.47
107 N 305 0.5 0.2 0.1 364.88 2.22
108 D 336 0.5 0.2 0.1 362.19 1.24
109 J 340 0.5 0.2 0.1 359.81 0.51
110 F 318 0.5 0.2 0.1 352.74 -1.00
111 M 362 0.5 0.2 0.1 349.01 -1.55
112 A 348 0.5 0.2 0.1 346.38 -1.77
113 M 363 0.5 0.2 0.1 352.01 -0.29
114 J 435 0.5 0.2 0.1 365.13 2.40
115 J 491 0.5 0.2 0.1 374.13 3.72
116 A 505 0.5 0.2 0.1 386.64 5.47
117 S 404 0.5 0.2 0.1 376.75 2.40
118 O 359 0.5 0.2 0.1 374.72 1.51
119 N 310 0.5 0.2 0.1 372.97 0.86
120 D 337 0.5 0.2 0.1 366.33 -0.64
121 J 360 0.5 0.2 0.1 371.61 0.55
122 F 342 0.5 0.2 0.1 372.08 0.53
123 M 406 0.5 0.2 0.1 380.64 2.14
124 A 396 0.5 0.2 0.1 387.91 3.16
125 M 420 0.5 0.2 0.1 403.02 5.55
126 J 472 0.5 0.2 0.1 408.90 5.62
127 J 548 0.5 0.2 0.1 419.35 6.58
128 A 559 0.5 0.2 0.1 431.33 7.66
129 S 463 0.5 0.2 0.1 427.42 5.35
130 O 407 0.5 0.2 0.1 426.53 4.10
131 N 362 0.5 0.2 0.1 431.36 4.25
132 D 405 0.5 0.2 0.1 433.87 3.90
133 J 417 0.5 0.2 0.1 437.18 3.78
134 F 391 0.5 0.2 0.1 433.14 2.22
135 M 419 0.5 0.2 0.1 417.82 -1.29
136 A 461 0.5 0.2 0.1 436.74 2.75
137 M 472 0.5 0.2 0.1 452.23 5.30
138 J 535 0.5 0.2 0.1 460.67 5.93
139 J 622 0.5 0.2 0.1 473.75 7.36
140 A 606 0.5 0.2 0.1 476.98 6.53
141 S 508 0.5 0.2 0.1 470.51 3.93
142 O 461 0.5 0.2 0.1 475.60 4.16
143 N 390 0.5 0.2 0.1 472.60 2.73
144 D 432 0.5 0.2 0.1 468.22 1.31
 Prévisions
Valeur absolue de
gammat Modèle multiplicatif Erreur de prévision
l'erreur

0.95
0.91
1.03
1.01
1.02
1.16
1.31
1.29
1.11
0.96
0.83
0.93
0.95 116.41 -4.41 4.41
0.91 110.25 7.75 7.75
1.03 132.24 -0.24 0.24
1.01 131.32 -2.32 2.32
1.02 134.02 -13.02 13.02
1.16 146.06 -11.06 11.06
1.31 158.55 -10.55 10.55
1.29 149.01 -1.01 1.01
1.12 127.43 8.57 8.57
0.97 113.99 5.01 5.01
0.83 100.76 3.24 3.24
0.93 115.24 2.76 2.76
0.95 120.19 -5.19 5.19
0.92 113.10 12.90 12.90
1.04 137.41 3.59 3.59
1.01 137.98 -2.98 2.98
1.01 139.62 -14.62 14.62
1.16 151.26 -2.26 2.26
1.31 169.97 0.03 0.03
1.29 167.43 2.57 2.57
1.12 147.08 10.92 10.92
0.97 133.51 -0.51 0.51
0.83 116.08 -2.08 2.08
0.94 129.78 10.22 10.22
0.95 139.60 5.40 5.40
0.92 139.99 10.01 10.01
1.04 167.70 10.30 10.30
1.00 173.10 -10.10 10.10
1.01 172.70 -0.70 0.70
1.15 201.69 -23.69 23.69
1.30 216.97 -17.97 17.97
1.28 205.10 -6.10 6.10
1.12 175.91 8.09 8.09
0.97 155.90 6.10 6.10
0.84 138.04 7.96 7.96
0.94 161.74 4.26 4.26
0.95 169.25 1.75 1.75
0.92 167.18 12.82 12.82
1.04 200.27 -7.27 7.27
1.00 193.75 -12.75 12.75
1.01 191.02 -8.02 8.02
1.15 214.49 3.51 3.51
1.30 247.32 -17.32 17.32
1.29 236.03 5.97 5.97
1.12 210.03 -1.03 1.03
0.97 181.54 9.46 9.46
0.84 162.18 9.82 9.82
0.94 190.36 3.64 3.64
0.95 198.56 -2.56 2.56
0.92 194.28 1.72 1.72
1.04 222.37 13.63 13.63
1.00 225.93 9.07 9.07
1.01 237.96 -8.96 8.96
1.14 271.75 -28.75 28.75
1.29 293.04 -29.04 29.04
1.29 275.95 -3.95 3.95
1.12 238.73 -1.73 1.73
0.97 205.19 5.81 5.81
0.84 179.58 0.42 0.42
0.94 201.49 -0.49 0.49
0.95 204.25 -0.25 0.25
0.92 198.27 -10.27 10.27
1.04 216.10 18.90 18.90
1.00 218.30 8.70 8.70
1.01 225.23 8.77 8.77
1.14 263.85 0.15 0.15
1.29 300.95 1.05 1.05
1.28 303.45 -10.45 10.45
1.12 262.40 -3.40 3.40
0.97 227.27 1.73 1.73
0.84 197.94 5.06 5.06
0.94 226.59 2.41 2.41
0.95 233.52 8.48 8.48
0.92 233.43 -0.43 0.43
1.04 267.58 -0.58 0.58
1.01 260.54 8.46 8.46
1.01 270.07 -0.07 0.07
1.15 311.09 3.91 3.91
1.29 358.96 5.04 5.04
1.28 365.42 -18.42 18.42
1.12 315.22 -3.22 3.22
0.97 275.02 -1.02 1.02
0.84 239.27 -2.27 2.27
0.94 269.05 8.95 8.95
0.95 281.43 2.57 2.57
0.92 277.00 0.00 0.00
1.04 317.82 -0.82 0.82
1.01 309.92 3.08 3.08
1.01 316.53 1.47 1.47
1.15 365.17 8.83 8.83
1.29 423.63 -10.63 10.63
1.28 419.80 -14.80 14.80
1.12 364.78 -9.78 9.78
0.97 314.42 -8.42 8.42
0.84 268.62 2.38 2.38
0.94 304.13 1.87 1.87
0.95 311.38 3.62 3.62
0.92 304.74 -3.74 3.74
1.05 344.86 11.14 11.14
1.01 340.99 7.01 7.01
1.01 348.97 6.03 6.03
1.15 404.84 17.16 17.16
1.29 472.70 -7.70 7.70
1.28 470.65 -3.65 3.65
1.12 416.28 -12.28 12.28
0.97 359.43 -12.43 12.43
0.84 307.13 -2.13 2.13
0.94 345.23 -9.23 9.23
0.95 346.91 -6.91 6.91
0.92 331.97 -13.97 13.97
1.04 367.71 -5.71 5.71
1.01 350.18 -2.18 2.18
1.01 348.07 14.93 14.93
1.15 404.18 30.82 30.82
1.29 473.97 17.03 17.03
1.28 482.54 22.46 22.46
1.11 438.35 -34.35 34.35
0.97 367.60 -8.60 8.60
0.84 315.48 -5.48 5.48
0.94 351.08 -14.08 14.08
0.96 348.72 11.28 11.28
0.92 342.13 -0.13 0.13
1.05 389.22 16.78 16.78
1.01 385.65 10.35 10.35
1.02 395.83 24.17 24.17
1.15 471.23 0.77 0.77
1.29 535.53 12.47 12.47
1.28 545.19 13.81 13.81
1.11 488.76 -25.76 25.76
0.97 419.09 -12.09 12.09
0.84 360.78 1.22 1.22
0.94 408.27 -3.27 3.27
0.95 418.11 -1.11 1.11
0.92 405.38 -14.38 14.38
1.04 455.73 -36.73 36.73
1.01 420.21 40.79 40.79
1.02 446.15 25.85 25.85
1.15 527.74 7.26 7.26
1.30 603.50 18.50 18.50
1.28 616.59 -10.59 10.59
1.11 536.87 -28.87 28.87
0.97 458.77 2.23 2.23
0.84 402.00 -12.00 12.00
0.94 445.31 -13.31 13.31

Moyenne 8.76
 Historique et modèles de prévision
erreur absolue moyenne = 8,75
700.00

600.00

500.00

400.00

300.00

200.00

100.00

0.00
J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O

-100.00

périodes