Hydrological Sciences-Bulletin-des Sciences Hydrologiques, 23,1, 3/1978

Rainfall frequencies for t h e

Persian Gulf coast of Iran

U. K APPUS Dames & Mooie, 605 Parfet Street, Denver,

Colorado 80215, USA
J. M. B L E E K Dames & Moore, London, England
S. H. B L A I R Dames & Moore, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Received 25 April 1977, revised 15 August 1977

Abstract. This analysis was undertaken to develop appropriate extreme flood design criteria for a
nuclear power plant at Halileh, near Bushehr, Iran, adjacent to the Persian Gulf. Graphical relation-
ships presented provide a convenient means of estimating the probable maximum precipitation and
the 2- to 100-year return period rainfall events with durations from 5 min to 24 h. The relation-
ships may be applied for drainage areas up to 25 km2. Probable maximum precipitation and 2- to
100-year return period rainfall events were estimated. Precipitation depth-duration relationships
were derived.

Les fréquences de pluie pour le Golfe Persique, Iran

Résumé. Cette analyse a été entreprise pour développer des critères propres à des conditions de
sévère inondation pour une installation électrogène nucléaire à Hilaleh, prés de Bushehr, en Iran
attenant au Golfe Persique. Les rapports graphiques présentés fournissent une moyen pratique pour
estimer la précipitation maximum probable et les quantités maximum de pluie, d'une durée de 5
min à 24 h, et pour une période de récurrence de 2 à 100 ans. Les rapports peuvent être appliqués
aux surfaces de drainage d'une superficie allant jusqu'à 25 km2. La précipitation maximum probable
et les quantités de pluie tombées pour une période de récurrence de 2 à 100 ans ont été estimées.
Les rapports profondeur-durée de précipitation ont été déduits.

INTRODUCTION

A comprehensive understanding of precipitation and its distribution pattern in both

space and time is essential to the proper design of many structures. The precipitation
depth-duration-frequency curves, presented in this paper, provide useful information
on which to base the design of many structures in the rapidly developing Bushehr
coastal region of Iran.
Frequency analysis of point rainfall usually provides the basis of design for storm
sewers in typical urban developments, drainage works at airports, and water-regulating
structures in small basins. Some damage may result if the design capacity is exceeded,
in these cases, but it is unlikely to be catastrophic in magnitude.

0303-6936/78/0300-0119802.00 © 1978 Blackwell Scientific Publications

119
120 U. Kappus et al.
However, where damage would be catastrophic and could cause loss of life, a very
high degree of safety is required in the design. For example, a dam of earth-fill con-
struction may fail entirely if the dam is overtopped. To have only a 5 per cent chance
that a structure's capacity will be exceeded in a design life of 100 years, the engineer
must design for approximately a 2000-year return period flood. Estimates of such rare
events by frequency analysis, from relatively short periods of observed records, are
very unreliable.
The need for very conservative design criteria has therefore led to the use of physical
analysis for design floods. As major floods are the result of extreme meteorological
conditions, studies have been directed towards estimating the physical upper limits to
storm rainfall in a basin or region. The resulting rainfall estimates are defined as the
probable maximum precipitation.
The purpose of this investigation was to develop the design basis flood elevations
for a proposed nuclear power plant at Halileh, near Bushehr, Iran, on the Persian Gulf.
The work was performed for Kraftwerk Union (KWU), a German company commis-
sioned by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) to supply the first two
nuclear reactors to Iran.

METEOROLOGICAL DATA

Data used for the estimation of probable maximum precipitation and rainfall depth-
duration-frequency relationships, were as follows: (1) precipitation-monthly, daily
and hourly; (2) dewpoint temperature-maximum persistent 12 h values; (3) upper air
data—wind and temperature; (4) annual number of days having thunderstorms.
Figure 1 illustrates the geographical distribution of the meteorological stations and
indicates the type of meterological data collected from each station. Additional data
were acquired from the United Kingdom and from the United States.

Historical precipitation
The study area may be classified as having an arid and subtropical climate. Maximum
rainfall usually occurs during the months of November to January. Rainfall in autumn
and spring usually occurs in the form of convective showers, and during the winter in
the form of cyclonic storms. The greatest monthly rainfall recorded at Bushehr was
240 mm in December 1954. A maximum 24 h rainfall of 152 mm occurred at Bushehr
on 11 January 1970, and was due to a complex western depression and associated cold
front. In areas farther to the east of the Persian Gulf, very heavy rainfalls associated
with tropical cyclones may occur during the monsoon intrusion (Ardekani, 1972). One
such event occurred in June 1890, at Muscat, when 300 mm of rain fell in 24 h
(Ritchie, 1967).
The long-term mean annual rainfall at Bushehr is 226 mm. During the period of
record 1950-1973, the annual precipitation ranged from less than 100 mm to nearly
500 mm. Inspection of precipitation records at Bushehr indicates that the greater
portion of 24 h precipitation generally occurs in considerably shorter periods of
time. For instance, of the 152 mm maximum recorded rainfall, approximately 38
per cent fell in 1 h, 68 per cent in 3 h, 85 per cent in 6 h, and 97 per cent in 12 h.
The precipitation summary for Bushehr, consisting of mean monthly rainfall,
 121
Gulf coast of Iran rainfall frequencies

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50 100 150 200

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.CLIMATE" DATA ACQUIRED AT STATION

STATION
SYMBOL
• I MONTHLY AND 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION.
A MONTHLY, 24 HOUR AND HOURLY PRECIPITATION.

THTUNDERSTOVRM DAYS PER MONTH

UPPER AIR WIND AND TEMPERATURE DATA

11
MONTHLY, 2 4 HOUR AND HOURLY PREC.PITATION.
nAUY DEWPOINT DATA

FIG. 1. Location of meteorological stations.

122 U. Kappus et al.
TABLE 1. Precipitation summary at Bushehr

Maximum rainfall Mean number of days

Mean rainfall* in 24 hf with precipitation %
Month (mm) (mm) >. 1 mm > 10 mm

January 68 152 4.5 2.4

February 26 44 2.8 1.0
March 15 36 1.6 0.2
April 10 34 2.4 0.2
May 3 29 0.7 0.2
June 0 0 0 0
July 0 0 0 0
August 0 0 0 0
September 0 0 0 0
October 1 9 0.3 0
November 40 95 3.4 1.5
December 63 74 3.7 1.4
Annual 226 152 19.4 6.8

* Period of record 1950-1973.

f Period of record 1950-1971.
t Period of record 1957-1969.
Source: Ministry of War, Iranian Meteorological Department, Tehran, Iran.

maximum 24 h rainfall, and mean number of days with precipitation of various

amounts, is presented in Table 1.

PROBABLE M A X I M U M P R E C I P I T A T I O N

The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) at any location should represent the
depth, time, and space distribution of precipitation that approaches the upper limit
of that which the atmosphere and regional topography can produce under optimum
precipitation-yielding conditions. Probable maximum precipitation was estimated
by a statistical analysis of the longest historical record of precipitation in the region
(39 years of daily rainfall at Bushehr). This estimate was verified using a convergence
storm model analysis based on regional precipitation, dewpoint, and upper atmos-
phere data.

Statistical model
The statistical procedure used for estimating PMP was that described in the World
Meteorological Organization manual (WMO, 1973).
PMP, the probable maximum precipitation, is derived by
?M¥ = P + KSr, (1)
where P and Sp are the mean and standard deviation, respectively, of the annual series
of 24 h maximum precipitation, and K is an empirical coefficient. K is a. function of
P and rainfall duration. Empirical relationships have been established in the manual
(WMO, 1973) and are based on the analysis of 2600 rainfall stations. Although 90 per
 Gulf coast of Iran rainfall frequencies 123
cent of these stations are in the United States, they represent a wide variety of climates
and may be satisfactorily applied to other world locations.
The total 39 years of daily precipitation records at Bushehr include continuous
records from 1950 to 1974 and intermittent records from 1906 to 1948. From these
data the maximum 24 h amount for each year was extracted (Table 2). The mean (P)
and standard deviation (Sp) of the annual series of maximum 24 h rainfalls were com-
puted to be 54.7 mm and 30.4 mm, respectively. The standard deviation adjusted for
length of record was 30.7 mm. From the manual (WMO, 1973) the value of K corres-
ponding to a mean of 54.7 mm is approximately 17.1 for a rainfall duration of 24 h.
Application of these values to Equation (1) produced a 24 h point PMP estimate of 580
mm. Adjustment for fixed observational time intervals (WMO, 1973) by 1.13 increased
the 24 h point PMP to 655 mm.

Convergence model
To provide a check on the PMP statistical analysis, an estimate based on a convergence

TABLE 2. Maximum annual 24 h precipitation at Bushehr

Rainfall Rainfall
Year (mm) Year (mm)

1906 25 1954 74
1907 47 1955 34
1908 36 1956 45
1909 133 1957 42
1910 116 1958 59
1911 64 1959 69
1912 38 1960 24
1913 48 1961 27
1962 17
1940 44 1963 17
1941 17 1964 60
1942 38 1965 40
1943 67 1966 29
1967 93
1947 41 1968 39
1948 39 1969 50
1970 152
1950 115 1971 22
1951 36 1972 47
1952 95 1973 56
1953 58 1974 40

Sources: 1906-1913 'Summary of the weather of Egypt, the

Sudan, and the surrounding region during the years of 1906-1913';
1940-1943 'Monthly Weather Review', Indian Meteorological Depart-
ment, Calcutta; 1947-1948 'Monthly Weather Report'; Pakistan
Weather Review, Karachi; 1950-1974 'Meteorological Yearbook';
Iranian Meteorological Department, Ministry of War, Tehran.
124 U. Kappus et al.
storm model (WMO, 1973) was performed using the limited available regional météoro-
logie data.
The convergence model assumes the following three properties of storms: (a) humid
air converges generally horizontally towards the storm area, (b) the humid air rises,
and (c) the humid air cools by adiabatic expansion, forcing water in excess of satura-
tion from the gaseous to the liquid form. This general model applies to all storms,
from the individual thunderstorm to large-area rainfall associated with tropical cyclones.
The model postulates that PMP will occur from the most extreme combination of
intense rate of air convergence (maximum vertical motion) and water vapour content
of air flowing into the storm.
Maximum water vapour content of air can be estimated with acceptable reliability
from the maximum 12 h persisting sea level dewpoint, when saturation of the atmos-
phere under pseudo-adiabatic conditions is assumed. Estimates were based on tables
from the manual (WMO, 1973) showing the maximum water vapour content (in terms
of depth of precipitable water) for a saturated pseudo-adiabatic atmosphere as a func-
tion of the 1000 mb (approximately sea level) dewpoint.
Because there is no satisfactory theoretical basis for estimation of maximum values
of air convergence or vertical motion in a storm, observed rainfall is used as a represen-
tative measure. The most direct technique is to divide the precipitation in a storm (P)
by the precipitable water in the surrounding air (M). This derives a dimensionless ratio
(P/M = r) that is a measure of the efficiency with which the air convergence and verti-
cal motion produce precipitation from water vapour.
Extreme rainfalls are indications of maximum rates of convergence and vertical
motion in the atmosphere. Therefore, multiplication of a maximum value of r, rmax,
by the expected maximum precipitable water M, Mmax, yields an estimate of PMP.

PMP = rmax7tfmax (2)

Since the coastal region is relatively flat, no orographic effects on PMP were included.
For the mountainous areas further inland, an orographic convergence precipitation
analysis would be required.
The maximum 12 h persisting dewpoint for the November to March wet season was
estimated to be 21 °C at sea level, based on meteorological records from Kharg Island
and Bushehr. This represents a column of precipitable water of 57.7 mm and is assumed
to represent the probable maximum water vapour (Mmax) flowing into a storm in the
Bushehr region.
The value of r depends on the season of the year, maximum point storm rainfall
amounts, and dewpoints. Point PMP quantities at the centre of large intense storms
usually produce r values between 10 and 15. Based on data from NOAA (see NOAA
references for 1956-1972) and an analysis of convergence activity using historical storm
data in the region, a 24 h rmax of 11.5 was estimated for the Bushehr coastal region.
Applying these respective values to Equation (2) produced a 24 h point PMP estimate
of 664 mm.

Comparison of models
There is no significant difference between the point 24 h PMP estimates derived by
each of the two procedures. A value of 660 mm was therefore assumed as a representa-
tive estimate of the 24 h point PMP in the Bushehr coastal region.
 Gulf coast of Iran rainfall frequencies 125
PRECIPITATION DEPTH-FREQUENCY RELATIONSHIPS

A statistical frequency analysis was performed using the longest historical record of
rainfall in the region (39 years of daily rainfall at Bushehr). Precipitation events, with a
duration of 24 h and return periods ranging from 2 years to 100 years, were estimated.
The Bushehr precipitation records were examined to determine the maximum 24 h
point rainfall that occurred in each year (Table 2). These data were fitted by the
method of moments to four probability" distributions: Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3), Log
Normal (LN), Extreme Value Type 1 (EV1), and Extreme Value Type 2 (EV2). For
comparative purposes, the distributions were superimposed on the cumulative histo-
gram, obtained from the original 39 years of rainfall data. To derive the cumulative
histogram, the historical data were plotted using the Weibull formula m/(N + 1), where
m is the ranked annual maximum 24 h rainfall and N the total number of years of
record (Natural Environment Research Council, 1975). The Kolomogrov-Smirnov
goodness of fit test (Benjamin & Cornell, 1970) indicated that the LP3 distribution
provided the best fit to the historical data.
The results of the 24 h precipitation frequency analysis based on the LP3 distribu-
tion are summarized in Table 3. These values have standard errors ranging from 3 mm
for the 2 year precipitation to 20 mm for the 100 year precipitation. Because the rain-
fall observational periods often did not fully encompass storm occurrences, the values
derived from the frequency analysis were increased by the factor 1.13 (WMO, 1973).
The adjusted 24 h precipitation values are summarized in Table 3.

TABLE 3. 24 h precipitation depth-frequency relationships

Unadjusted Adjusted
24 h Standard 24 h
Return period precipitation* errorf precipitation $
(years) (mm) (mm) (mm)

2 45 3 51
5 73 8 82
10 94 11 106
25 122 14 138
50 150 17 167
100 178 20 201

* Values obtained from Log Pearson Type 3 frequency analysis.

f Computed as Col\Jr\, where a is the sample standard deviation, -q is the sample
size, and C is a coefficient which varies from 0.67 for the 2-year return period
to 3.93 for the 100-year return period.
% Adjustment made by factor 1.13 because observational period does not
coincide with storm occurrence.

PRECIPITATION D E P T H - D U R A T I O N RELATIONSHIPS

Ideally, precipitation depth-duration relationships would be derived by performing a

frequency analysis using long-term historical records of annual maximum short-duration
precipitation. This procedure, which would be similar to that used to calculate the 24 h
precipitation depth-frequency relationships, was not feasible because only four years
126 U. Kappus et al.
of 1 h duration rainfall records were available in the study region at Bushehr. Depth-
duration relationships were therefore derived using correlation techniques to define
the 1, 3 and 6 h precipitation values as fractions of 24 h rainfall having the same return
period. Two statistical procedures were used: a linear regression model, and a peak-
over-threshold model.

Linear regression model

Of 39 years of precipitation records at Bushehr, hourly precipitation measurements
were available from 1969 to 1972. From these 4 years of data, 18 separate rainfall
events were identified where the maximum precipitation in a 24 h period equalled or
exceeded 10 mm. From these events, the rainfalls were determined which occurred
during 1,3,6 and 24 h periods as measured from the beginning of each rainfall event.
A linear regression analysis was performed to correlate the shorter duration precipi-
tation with the 24 h values. This analysis was used to determine the equation of the
best fit straight line between points plotted (/24, in), where z24 is the 24 h precipitation
and in is the 1, 3 or 6 h precipitation for the same storm. In such a manner, the regres-
sion lines 'averaged' the scattergram of points plotted for each duration, resulting in 1,
3 and 6 h precipitation depths corresponding to a 'typical' storm profile characteristic
of the study region. Furthermore, the potential for joint probabilities to increase the
return period of the derived depth-duration relationship was minimized by selecting
the 1,3 and 6 h depths as measured from the beginning of each rainfall event, rather
than during the most intense 1, 3 and 6 h period within each rainstorm. The results
indicated that the 1 h precipitation was approximately 42 per cent of the 24 h, with a
standard error of 6 mm. Similarly, the maximum 3 and 6 h precipitations were approxi-
mately 70 and 84 per cent, respectively, of the maximum 24 h value. The respective
standard errors were 4 mm and 16 mm.

Peak-over-threshold model
A second statistical technique, based on a peak-over-threshold (POT) model (also
known as a partial duration series model), was used to estimate correlations between
the 24 h and shorter duration precipitations (Natural Environment Research Council,
1975). A POT model is normally used to perform a frequency analysis in the absence of
long-term historical records, and statistically examines the exceedances of events over
a specified threshold value. Based on the 18 rainfall events discussed above, the POT
model was used to correlate the 1,3 and 6 h precipitations with 24 h values for each
return period.
The POT model was used to estimate the 2-100 year return period precipitation
events having 1, 3, 6 and 24 h durations based on analyses of the 18 respective 1, 3, 6
and 24 h duration rainfall events. For each return period considered, the ratio [/24(LP3)] /
D'24(POT)] was determined, where z'24(LP3) is the 24 h precipitation previously deter-
mined from the Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) probability distribution (using 39 years of
annual events), and /24(POT) is the 24 h precipitation derived by the POT model (using
the 18 rainfall events in exceedance of 10 mm). This ratio was found to increase from
0.83 for the 2-year event to 1.34 for the 100-year event. These ratios were then applied
to the estimates of 2-100 year return period 1, 3 and 6 h duration precipitations
derived from the POT analysis. The corrected estimates approach the values that would
have been obtained from an LP3 frequency analysis if 39 years of short duration rain-
fall records had been available.
 Gulf coast of Iran rainfall frequencies 127
The results indicated the i„/i24 ratios to be independent of return period, where
Î24 is the 24 h precipitation and /„ is the 1, 3 or 6 h precipitation for the same return
period. The 1, 3 and 6 h precipitations were found to be 56, 76 and 90 per cent,
respectively, of the 24 h value.

Comparison of models
The POT model yielded slightly higher estimates of the 1,3 and 6 h duration precipita-
tion values than those obtained by the linear regression model. Because both techniques
were based on only 4 years of data, a comparison was made with rainfall depth-dura-
tion relationships derived in similar climatological regions of the world. Depth-duration
estimates from the linear regression model compare more favourably with studies
performed in the United States (NOAA, 1961b) and Saudi Arabia (Mander et al, 1975).
Furthermore, the results of the linear regression analysis are less sensitive to variations
of input data than is the POT model. The linear regression model results were there-
fore adopted in preference to those from the POT analysis.
Because of the lack of rainfall records at Bushehr shorter than one hour duration, it
was necessary to derive the 5, 15, and 30 min relationships based on studies performed
in similar climatological regions of Saudi Arabia (Mander et al, 1975). These values of
31, 58 and 80 per cent, respectively, of the 1 h precipitation compare favourably with
similar climatological areas in the United States.
The selected depth-duration relationships are summarized in Table 4.

TABLE 4. Precipitation depth-duration relationships

Minutes Hours

5 15 30 1 3 6 24

Percentage of
24 h
precipitation 13 24 34 42 70 84 100

PRECIPITATION DEPTH-DURATION-FREQUENCY RELATIONSHIPS

The POT analysis indicated that the derived rainfall depth-duration relationships are
independent of return period. Depth-duration ratios were also found to be independent
of return period in a similar climatological area of Saudi Arabia (Wan, 1976). It has
therefore been assumed that the depth-duration ratios derived above (Table 4) may be
applied to all 24 h precipitations developed in the PMP and frequency analysis.
The depth-duration and depth-frequency relationships were combined to produce
the depth-duration-frequency relationships illustrated in Fig. 2.

CONCLUSIONS

The precipitation depth-duration-frequency relationships presented in Fig. 2 provide

128 U. Kappus et al.

6_| I | I [ | ! I j I I I I j I J [ I J [ I I I I I I I ill
5 10 15 20 25 30 40 50 I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 15 20 24

DURATION

FIG. 2. Precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves.

water resources engineers with useful information on which to base the design of many
structures. The relationships may be used to estimate rainfall events in the flat coastal
Bushehr region of the Persian Gulf.
Although the analysis has been based on point rainfall, it is considered that precipi-
tation values estimated from Fig. 2 may be applied to areas up to 25 km2 without
reduction. For greater areas, values derived from Fig. 2 should be reduced by suitable
rainfall depth-area reduction factors (WMO, 1973).
It is emphasized that the depth-duration-frequency relationships should not be
applied to more mountainous areas inland from the Persian Gulf without adjustment
for orographic effects.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors wish to acknowledge the assistance of Mr J. L. H. Paulhus, and Mr D.

Nunn, consulting hydrometeorologists, in estimating the PMP. They are also indebted
to Mr J. Kroth and Mr T. Manbeian, of Dames and Moore, for their assistance during
collection of the meteorological data.
 Gulf coast of Iran rainfall frequencies 129
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