Monitoring’2023

Mon23-085
Climate change impact assessment on Ukraine and establishing
an alternative and sustainable source of fresh water for Mykolaiv
I. Didovets (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), S. Snizhko
(Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine; University of Potsdam, Potsdam,
Germany), *M. Yatsiuk (Institute of Water Problems and Land Reclamation of NAAS, Kyiv,
Ukraine), F. Hattermann (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany),
A. Bronstert (University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany)
SUMMARY

This study presents an assessment of climate impacts on water availability in the Southern
Bug basin, envisaged as a prospective water source for the city of Mykolaiv in Ukraine. Since
the city's primary water supply was disrupted due to Russian armed aggression, it is crucial to
explore viable alternative water sources. The region's semi-arid climate and mounting
pressures from climate change necessitate a scientifically informed approach to sustainable
water management. The findings of this study, based on the WaterGap hydrological model
driven by bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs), suggest that under SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios, the
Southern Bug basin's river discharge will undergo notable variations in the future. According
to projections, the mean annual discharge could increase by approximately 5-7% in the mid-
future. However, the far future could see a decrease in river discharge from 4% to an
alarming 14%. Our research also forecasts alterations in the long-term mean monthly
discharge. While most seasons and months show a decrease in river discharge, an increase of
5% to over 30% is expected in winter months during the mid-future. From April to June, river
discharge levels are expected to remain unchanged for the mid-future under both scenarios.
However, a decrease in streamflow of up to 10-12% is projected from July through
November. Looking further into the far future, the decrease in water availability could reach
up to 40% during the summer and early fall months. These projections underscore the urgent
need to adapt water management strategies in the Southern Bug basin to mitigate potential
climate change impacts and ensure sustainable water availability for the region.

XVII International Scientific Conference “Monitoring of Geological Processes

and Ecological Condition of the Environment”
7–10 November 2023, Kyiv, Ukraine
Monitoring’2023

Introduction

On April 12, 2022, Russian forces destroyed the drinking water supply system of Mykolaiv. Since
then the city with a population of 470,000 people (01.01.2022) (SSC of Ukraine, 2023) has no
sustainable water supply.
As a temporary solution, there were established dozens of clean water points with water provided by
neighboring cities or international aid agencies and organised water abstraction from the downstream
part of the Southern Bug River near the city. Nevertheless, due to the high salinity in the lagoon
(S. Bug River), the abstracted water could be used only for technical purposes.
Before the attack on 12th of April, the water supply system was mainly carried out by abstracting
water from the Dnipro River near Kherson city and transferring it by two pipelines 73 km long to
Mykolaiv. At this moment there is no possibility to repair water lines because it’s located close to the
frontline within the area of Russian artillery strikes. In addition, the territory has to be de-mined
before the engineers can fix the damaged sections (BBC, 2022; NPR, 2022).
An alternative solution for a sustainable water source for Mykolaiv could be an abstraction of water in
the upper part of the Southern Bug River near to Nova Odesa and build a new water line to the city.
However, there is a lack of the necessary knowledge about the water resources available there, such as
the annual groundwater recharge and the long-term variability of the water balance. The city is
located in a semi-arid climate zone, where the limited amount of water resources is already an issue,
and climate change may put additional pressure on future water availability in the region. The region
is already affected by climate change, and since investments in water management are planned over
decades, the water strategy must take climate change into account, especially the risk of prolonged
droughts. What is needed is a science-based decision support.

Method and Data

The research Climate data

This study employed five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from ISIMIP 3b project (Inter-Sectoral
Impact Model Intercomparison Project, 2023). These GCMs are bias-corrected CMIP6 climate
forcing represented by GFDL-ESM4, UKESM1-0-LL, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MRI-
ESM2-0.
Our study uses two distinct SSP - RCP scenarios: SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP5-RCP8.5. SSP1.26 aligns
with the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement, while SSP5.85 represents a 'business as usual'
scenario. These choices allow us to forecast a range of possible climates based on different emissions
trajectories.
The climate data used has a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees. The model's time series is divided
into two parts: historical simulations covering the period from 1861 to 2005, and future projections
for the period 2006 to 2099, incorporating the effects of greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate projections from the GCMs were used to simulate future river discharge patterns, offering
insights into the potential impacts of climate change on water resources. To be specific, these
projections were not integrated into a hydrological model but directly applied for simulating river
discharges.
For analysis, the future time series has been divided into a reference period and two future periods.
The reference period is from 1991 to 2015, which provides a baseline for comparisons. The future
periods of 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 allow us to evaluate both near and distant future implications of
climate change.

Hydrological modelling

The study utilized WaterGAP2, a global water availability and water use model that includes modules
for various water uses like irrigation, domestic, manufacturing, livestock, and cooling of thermal

XVII International Scientific Conference “Monitoring of Geological Processes

and Ecological Condition of the Environment”
7–10 November 2023, Kyiv, Ukraine
Monitoring’2023

power plants. Its capacity to simulate water fluxes, storages, and impacts of anthropogenic alterations
at a 0.5 x 0.5 degrees spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution was instrumental in our
hydrological assessments. The model's basin-specific calibration approach, which seeks to replicate
observed river discharge at 1319 basins, ensured accurate representation of river discharge (Müller
Schmied et al 2014, 2016, ISMIP 2023, Krysanova et al. 2020).
Additionally, its performance was evaluated in a recent study by Didovets et al. (2020). The study
found WaterGAP2 to be effective in accurately representing river discharge for the territory of
Ukraine. This further confirms its suitability for our research.

Results

The assessment of climate projections

In Ukraine, climate change projections suggest a notable warming trend over the 21st century
(Snizhko et al., 2020, 2020a). Under the mitigation pathway SSP1, the mean annual temperature is
projected to rise by 2 degrees until the mid-21st century and subsequently stabilize. However, the
SSP5 scenario, often characterized as 'business as usual', forecasts a more drastic temperature
increase, potentially reaching a 6-degree rise by the end of the century. Notably, precipitation patterns
do not show significant alterations under either scenario.

River discharge changes

The simulations annual average and long-term monthly mean river discharge the Southern Bug basin
are based on two prospective timeframes, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, under scenarios SSP1-RCP2.6
and SSP5-RCP8.5. The outcomes were derived from the hydrological model driven by four bias-
adjusted General Circulation Models from ISIMIP3b.
In the hydrological gauge Oleksandrivka, located downstream of the basin, distinct changes in river
discharge are projected based on multiple future scenarios. According to multi-model median
projections, under the relatively mitigated scenario of SSP1-RCP2.6, the mean annual discharge is
anticipated to increase by approximately 5% in the mid future. Conversely, under the more severe
scenario of SSP5-RCP8.5, the increase could reach up to 7%.
However, the long-term horizon paints a different picture. For the far future, projections indicate a
decrease in river discharge, ranging from 4% under SSP1-RCP2.6 to a substantial 14% under the
SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario. When it comes to the long-term mean monthly discharge, decreases are
projected for most seasons and months, with the exception of winter. For the mid future, under both
outlined scenarios, winter months will see an increase in streamflow, varying from a modest 5% to a
more significant 30% (Figure 1).
Interestingly, from April to June, no discernible changes in river discharge are projected for the mid
future under either scenario. However, from July through November, the majority of months under
both scenarios show a decline in streamflow of up to 10-12%.
Looking further into the future, the projections suggest more pronounced changes. There is an
expected decline in water availability from March to the end of the year under both scenarios,
reaching a significant decrease of up to 40% during the summer and early fall months. These
projected changes underline the importance of adapting our water management strategies to mitigate
potential impacts.

XVII International Scientific Conference “Monitoring of Geological Processes

and Ecological Condition of the Environment”
7–10 November 2023, Kyiv, Ukraine
Monitoring’2023

A B
Figure 1 Projected changes in the long-term mean monthly river discharge for two future periods
A. under SSP1-RCP2.6. B. under SSP5.85

Conclusions

This study presents an assessment of climate impacts on water availability in the Southern Bug basin,
envisaged as a prospective water source for the city of Mykolaiv in Ukraine. Since the city's primary
water supply was disrupted due to Russian armed aggression, it is crucial to explore viable alternative
water sources. The region's semi-arid climate and mounting pressures from climate change necessitate
a scientifically informed approach to sustainable water management (Ovcharuk et al.,2020; Snizhko et
al., 2021; Snizhko et al., 2021a). The findings of this study, based on WaterGap hydrological model
driven by bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSPs), suggest that under SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios, the Southern Bug basin's river
discharge will undergo notable variations in the future. According to projections, the mean annual
discharge could increase by approximately 5-7% in the mid future. However, the far future could see
a decrease in river discharge from 4% to an alarming 14%. Our research also forecasts alterations in
the long-term mean monthly discharge. While most seasons and months show a decrease in river
discharge, an increase of 5% to over 30% is expected in winter months during the mid-future. From
April to June, river discharge levels are expected to remain unchanged for the mid future under both
scenarios. However, a decrease in streamflow of up to 10-12% is projected from July through
November. Looking further into the far future, the decrease in water availability could reach up to
40% during the summer and early fall months. These projections underscore the urgent need to adapt
water management strategies in the Southern Bug basin to mitigate potential climate change impacts
and ensure sustainable water availability for the region. This study is an important first step towards
understanding the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Southern Bug basin. Future
research should focus on more detailed, regional hydrological modelling that incorporates local
climatic conditions, soil parameters, and land use and water management practices. Such region-
specific studies will be instrumental in developing more precise and effective water management
strategies.

Acknowledgements

This research was supported in part by a grant from the Volkswagen Stiftung (Ref.-No. 9C084),
which is gratefully acknowledged.

References

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63383605

XVII International Scientific Conference “Monitoring of Geological Processes

and Ecological Condition of the Environment”
7–10 November 2023, Kyiv, Ukraine
Monitoring’2023

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XVII International Scientific Conference “Monitoring of Geological Processes

and Ecological Condition of the Environment”
7–10 November 2023, Kyiv, Ukraine