Exercice 2 p149 :

1/ Annees Trimestre Yt MM4 MMC4

1 33 -
2 45 -
3 25 28.75 29.75
1 4 12 30.75 30.25
5 41 29.75 31.625
6 41 33.5 33.125
7 40 32.75 31.375
2 8 9 30 32
9 30 34 33.125
10 57 32.25 33.625
11 33 35 38
3 12 20 41 41.125
13 54 41.25 41.625
14 58 42 42.625
15 36 43.25 -
4 16 25 -

2/ 70 YT et moyennes mobiles

60

50

40
Colu
m...
30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
 yt/MMC4 3/
-
- Annees/trimestres 1
0.84 1 -
0.40 2 1.2964
1.30 3 0.9057
1.24 4 1.2973
1.27 Moyenne 1.1665
0.28 ID Saisonnier 1.1735
0.91
1.70
0.87 4/ Annees/trimestres 1
0.49 1 -
1.30 2 1.1048
1.36 3 0.7718
- 4 1.1055
-

et moyennes mobiles

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
 2 3 4
- 0.8403 0.3967
1.2377 1.2749 0.2813
1.6952 0.8684 0.4863
1.3607 - -
1.4312 0.9946 0.3838 3.9760
1.4398 1.0006 0.3861 4

2 3 4
- 0.8399 1.0274
0.8596 1.2742 0.7284
1.1773 0.8679 1.2596
0.9450 - -
5/
Xt=Ɵyt+(1-Ɵ)Xt-1

Trimestre Yt MM4 yt/MM4 Xt

1 150 150.000
2 80 97.500
3 110 136.25 0.81 106.875
4 205 141.25 1.45 180.469
5 170 145 1.17 172.617
6 95 148.75 0.64 114.404
7 125 151.25 0.83 122.351
8 215 153.75 1.40 191.838
9 180 156.25 1.15 182.959
10 105 153.75 0.68 124.490
11 115 160 0.72 117.372
12 240 163.75 1.47 209.343
13 195 165 1.18 198.586
14 110 173.75 0.63 132.146
15 150 177.5 0.85 145.537
16 255 227.634
Representation graphique

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
 Yt

14 15 16