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■ Table 4 Critical Values of t, pages 692–963
df t.100 t.050 t.025 t.010 t.005 df

a 1 3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.657 1
ta 2 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 2
3 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 3
4 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 4
5 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 5
6 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 6

7 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 7
8 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355 8
9 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250 9
10 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 10
11 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 11

12 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 12
13 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 13
14 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977 14
15 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947 15
16 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921 16

17 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898 17
18 1.330 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 18
19 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 19
20 1.325 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 20
21 1.323 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 21

22 1.321 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819 22
23 1.319 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807 23
24 1.318 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797 24
25 1.316 1.708 2.060 2.485 2.787 25
26 1.315 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779 26

27 1.314 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771 27
28 1.313 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763 28
29 1.311 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 29
30 1.310 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750 30
31 1.309 1.696 2.040 2.453 2.744 31

32 1.309 1.694 2.037 2.449 2.738 32
33 1.308 1.692 2.035 2.445 2.733 33
34 1.307 1.691 2.032 2.441 2.728 34
35 1.306 1.690 2.030 2.438 2.724 35
36 1.306 1.688 2.028 2.434 2.719 36

37 1.305 1.687 2.026 2.431 2.715 37
38 1.304 1.686 2.024 2.429 2.712 38
39 1.304 1.685 2.023 2.426 2.708 39
40 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.423 2.704 40
45 1.301 1.679 2.014 2.412 2.690 45

50 1.299 1.676 2.009 2.403 2.678 50
55 1.297 1.673 2.004 2.396 2.668 55
60 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.390 2.660 60
65 1.295 1.669 1.997 2.385 2.654 65
70 1.294 1.667 1.994 2.381 2.648 70

80 1.292 1.664 1.990 2.374 2.639 80
90 1.291 1.662 1.987 2.368 2.632 90
100 1.290 1.660 1.984 2.364 2.626 100
200 1.286 1.653 1.972 2.345 2.601 200
300 1.284 1.650 1.968 2.339 2.592 300

400 1.284 1.649 1.966 2.336 2.588 400
500 1.283 1.648 1.965 2.334 2.586 500
inf. 1.282 1.645 1.96 2.326 2.576 inf.
Source: Percentage points calculated using Minitab software.
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Body temperature and heart rate 542 Measurement error 263 Social Sciences
Breathing rates 74, 93, 441 Medical diagnostics 162
Achievement scores 581
Bulimia 392 Mercury concentration in dolphins 84, 594
Achievement tests 75, 515, 550
Calcium 440, 460, 464 Metal corrosion and soil acids 572
Adolescents and social stress 376
Calcium content 25 Metabolism and weight gain 552
Alcohol and altitude 442
Cancer survivor rates 12, 187 Monkey business 144 American Presidents-age at death 26
Cerebral blood flow 226, 263, 391, 419 MRIs 164 Animation helps 502
Chemical experiment 306, 515 Nematodes 549 Anxious infants 612
Chemotherapy 642 Omega-3 Fats 250 Back to work 17
Chicago weather 186 Ore samples 74 Books or iPads? 401
Chirping crickets 111, 523, 528 Parasites in foxes 94 Boomers, Xers and Millennial Men 375
Chloroform 92 PCBs 377 Catching a cold 318, 321, 630
Cholesterol 393 Pearl millet 340 Choosing a mate 158
Citrus red mite 325 pH in rainfall 326 Discovery-based teaching 627
Color preferences in mice 210 pH levels in water 660 Drug offenders 156
Cotton versus cucumber 580 Physical fitness 500, 612 Drug testing 156
Cure for insomnia 364 Plant density 208 Eye movement 642
Cure for the common cold 358 Plant genetics 157, 188, 234, 363 Faculty salaries 263, 486, 501
Deep-sea research 617 Plant science 537 Good at math? 460
Diabetes in children 208 Polluted seawater 67, 84 Graduate teaching assistants 628
Digitalis and calcium uptake 475 Pollution 326, 499, 678 Hospital survey 143
Disinfectants 402 Potassium levels 264 Household size 101, 617
Dissolved O2 content 392, 403, 459, 642 Potency of an antibiotic 353 Images and word recall 251, 654
Drugs for hypertension 92 Pulse rates 49, 227 Intensive care 195
Drug potency 420 Purifying organic compounds 392 Jury duty 136
E. coli outbreaks 196 Rain and snow 121 Laptops and learning 51, 524, 528
Early detection of breast cancer 363 Recovery rates 647 Math and art 677
Enzymes 401 Recurring illness 32, 91 Medical bills 189
Excedrin or Tylenol 318 Red blood cell count 25, 393 Memory experiments 412
FDA testing 175 Rh factor 233, 285 Midterm scores 118
Fossils 440 Ring-necked pheasants 440 Music in the workplace 412
Fruit flies 136 Runners and cyclists 402, 428, 443 No pass-no play rule for athletics 162
Geothermal power 542 San Andreas Fault 296 Organized religion 25
Genetic defects 233 Screening tests 162 Political corruption 326
Gestation times 121, 226, 523 Sea urchins 440 Preschool 33
Glucose tolerance 464 Seed treatments 199 Racial bias 250
Good tasting medicine 619, 665 Selenium 311, 326 Reaction times 410, 441, 442,
Ground or air 411 Shade or sun? 440 497, 498
Gulf oil spill 48 Slash pine seedlings 474 Reducing hostility 458
Hazardous waste 26, 123 Sleep deprivation 515, 523 Same-sex marriage 284, 306
Healthy eating 358, 579 Smoking 331, 392 SAT scores 92, 187, 313, 359,
Healthy teeth 401, 411 Sodium hydroxide 439 376, 427
Heart rate and exercise 465, 659 Spraying fruit trees 358 Smoking and cancer 157
Hormone therapy and Alzheimer’s disease 368 Sunflowers 227, 332 Snacking and TV 242
Human body temperatures 50, 95, 242, 264, 307, Survival times 32, 74, 85 Social ambivalence 92
313, 353, 359 Swampy sites 459, 464, 659 Social Security numbers 74
Hungry rats 297 Sweet potato whitefly 363 Social skills training 110, 541, 671
Impurities 428, 439 Tai Chi and fibromyalgia 251, 368 Spending patterns 612
Iodine concentration 331 Taste test for PTC 189 Starting salaries 312, 321, 359
Jigsaw puzzles 654 Tay-Sachs disease 188 Student ratings 671
Lead levels in blood 647 Titanium 402 Teaching biology 312
Lead levels in drinking water 358 Toxic chemicals 664 Test interviews 119, 515
Less red meat 321, 579 Weights of babies 225, 263, 305, 352 Unbiased choices 144, 174, 199
Lobsters 392, 541 Weights of turtles 642 Union Yes! 318
Long stemmed roses 92 Whitefly infestation 210, 499 Violent crime 162
Lung cancer 233 White tailed deer 376 Want to be President? 16
Edition
Introduction
15 to Probability
and Statistics
Metric Version
William Mendenhall, III
1925–2009
Robert J. Beaver
University of California, Riverside, Emeritus
Barbara M. Beaver
University of California, Riverside, Emerita
Australia • Brazil • Mexico • Singapore • United Kingdom • United States
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Print Number: 01 Print Year: 2018
Brief Contents
introduction: WHAT IS STATISTICS? 1
1 Describing Data with Graphs 7
2 Describing Data with Numerical Measures 54
3 Describing Bivariate Data 96
4 Probability 126
5 Discrete Probability Distributions 167
6 The Normal Probability Distribution 212
7 Sampling Distributions 245
8 Large-Sample Estimation 288
9 Large-Sample Tests of Hypotheses 335
10 Inference from Small Samples 380
11 The Analysis of Variance 445
12 Simple Linear Regression and Correlation 503
13 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis 555
14 Analysis of Categorical Data 599
15 Nonparametric Statistics 633
Appendix i 681
data sources 714
answers to selected exercises 727
index 745
iii
Contents
Introduction: What Is Statistics? 1

The Population and the Sample 3
Descriptive and Inferential Statistics 3
Achieving the Objective of Inferential Statistics: The Necessary Steps 4
Keys for Successful Learning 5
1 Describing Data with Graphs 7

1.1 Variables and Data 8
Types of Variables 9
Exercises 11
1.2 Graphs for Categorical Data 12
Exercises 15
1.3 Graphs for Quantitative Data 17
Pie Charts and Bar Charts 17
Line Charts 19
Dotplots 20
Stem and Leaf Plots 20
Interpreting Graphs with a Critical Eye 22
Exercises 24
1.4 Relative Frequency Histograms 27
Exercises 31
Chapter Review 35
Technology Today 35
Reviewing What You’ve Learned 47
Case Study: How Is Your Blood Pressure? 53
2 Describing Data with Numerical Measures 54

Introduction 55
2.1 Measures of Center 55
Exercises 59
2.2 Measures of Variability 61
Exercises 66
iv
Contents v
2.3 Understanding and Interpreting the Standard Deviation 67

Tchebysheff’s Theorem 67
The Empirical Rule 69
Approximating s Using the Range 71
Exercises 73
2.4 Measures of Relative Standing 76
z-Scores 76
Percentiles and Quartiles 77
The Five-Number Summary and the Box Plot 80
Exercises 83
Chapter Review 86
Technology Today 87
Case Study: The Boys of Summer 95
3 Describing Bivariate Data 96

Introduction 97
3.1 Describing Bivariate Categorical Data 97
Exercises 99
3.2 Describing Bivariate Quantitative Data 101
Scatterplots 101
The Correlation Coefficient 104
The Least-Squares Line 106
Exercises 109
Chapter Review 112

Technology Today 112
Case Study: Are Your Clothes Really Clean? 124
4 Probability 126
Introduction 127
4.1 Events and the Sample Space 127
Exercises 130
4.2 Calculating Probabilities Using Simple Events 131
Exercises 134
4.3 Useful Counting Rules 137
Using the TI-83/84 Plus Calculator 142
Exercises 142
vi Contents
4.4 Rules for Calculating Probabilities 144

Calculating Probabilities for Unions and Complements 146
Calculating Probabilities for Intersections 148
Exercises 155
4.5 Bayes’ Rule 158
Exercises 161
Chapter Review 163
Case Study: Probability and Decision Making in the Congo 166
5 Discrete Probability Distributions 167

5.1 Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions 168
Random Variables 168
Probability Distributions 168
The Mean and Standard Deviation for a Discrete Random Variable 170
Exercises 174
5.2 The Binomial Probability Distribution 176
Exercises 185
5.3 The Poisson Probability Distribution 189
Exercises 194
5.4 The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 196
Exercises 198
Chapter Review 200

Case Study: A Mystery: Cancers Near a Reactor 211
6 The Normal Probability Distribution 212

6.1 Probability Distributions for Continuous Random Variables 213
The Continuous Uniform Probability Distribution 215
The Exponential Probability Distribution 216
Exercises 217
6.2 The Normal Probability Distribution 218
The Standard Normal Random Variable 219
Calculating Probabilities for a General Normal Random Variable 222
Exercises 225
6.3 The Normal Approximation to the Binomial Probability Distribution 228
Exercises 232
Contents vii
Chapter Review 235

Case Study: “Are You Going to Curve the Grades?” 244
7 Sampling Distributions 245

Introduction 246
7.1 Sampling Plans and Experimental Designs 246
Exercises 249
7.2 Statistics and Sampling Distributions 252
Exercises 254
7.3 The Central Limit Theorem and the Sample Mean 255
The Central Limit Theorem 255
The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean 258
Standard Error of the Sample Mean 259
Exercises 262
7.4 Assessing Normality 264
7.5 The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion 268
Exercises 271
7.6 A Sampling Application: Statistical Process Control (Optional) 273
A Control Chart for the Process Mean: The x Chart 274
A Control Chart for the Proportion Defective: The p Chart 276
Exercises 278
Chapter Review 280

Case Study: Sampling the Roulette at Monte Carlo 287
8 Large-Sample Estimation 288

8.1 Where We’ve Been and Where We’re Going 289
Statistical Inference 289
Types of Estimators 290
8.2 Point Estimation 291
Exercises 296
8.3 Interval Estimation 298
Constructing a Confidence Interval 298
Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a Population Mean  300
viii Contents
Interpreting the Confidence Interval 301

Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion p 303
Using Technology 304
Exercises 304
8.4 Estimating the Difference Between Two Population Means 307
Exercises 311
8.5 Estimating the Difference Between Two Binomial Proportions 313
Using Technology 316
Exercises 316
8.6 One-Sided Confidence Bounds 319
Exercises 320
8.7 Choosing the Sample Size 322
Exercises 325
Chapter Review 326

Case Study: How Reliable Is That Poll? CBS News: How and Where America Eats 333
9 Large-Sample Tests of Hypotheses 335

Introduction 336
9.1 A Statistical Test of Hypothesis 336
Exercises 339
9.2 A Large-Sample Test About a Population Mean 340
The Essentials of the Test 340
Calculating the p-Value 344
Two Types of Errors 348
The Power of a Statistical Test 349
Exercises 352
9.3 A Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis for the Difference Between
Two Population Means 354
Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals 356
Exercises 357
9.4 A Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis
for a Binomial Proportion 360
Statistical Significance and Practical Importance 362
Exercises 363
9.5 A Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis for the Difference
Between Two Binomial Proportions 365
Exercises 367
Contents ix
9.6 Concluding Comments on Testing Hypotheses 369
Chapter Review 370

Case Study: An Aspirin a Day . . . ? 378
10 Inference from Small Samples 380

Introduction 381
10.1 Student’s t Distribution 381
Assumptions behind Student’s t Distribution 384
Exercises 385
10.2 Small-Sample Inferences Concerning a Population Mean 386
Exercises 390
10.3 Small-Sample Inferences for the Difference Between Two Population Means:
Independent Random Samples 394
Exercises 400
10.4 Small-Sample Inferences for the Difference Between Two Means: A Paired-
Difference Test 404
Exercises 409
10.5 Inferences Concerning a Population Variance 413
Exercises 419
10.6 Comparing Two Population Variances 421
Exercises 427
10.7 Revisiting the Small-Sample Assumptions 429
Chapter Review 430

Case Study: School Accountability—Are We Doing Better? 443
11 The Analysis of Variance 445

11.1 The Design of an Experiment 446
Basic Definitions 446
What Is an Analysis of Variance? 447
The Assumptions for an Analysis of Variance 448
Exercises 448
11.2 The Completely Randomized Design: A One-Way Classification 449
Partitioning the Total Variation in the Experiment 450
x Contents
Testing the Equality of the Treatment Means 453

Estimating Differences in the Treatment Means 455
Exercises 458
11.3 Ranking Population Means 461
Exercises 464
11.4 The Randomized Block Design: A Two-Way Classification 465
Partitioning the Total Variation in the Experiment 466
Testing the Equality of the Treatment and Block Means 469
Identifying Differences in the Treatment and Block Means 471
Some Cautionary Comments on Blocking 472
Exercises 473
11.5 The a 3 b Factorial Experiment: A Two-Way Classification 477
The Analysis of Variance for an a 3 b Factorial Experiment 479
Exercises 483
11.6 Revisiting the Analysis of Variance Assumptions 486
Residual Plots 487
11.7 A Brief Summary 489
Chapter Review 490

Case Study: How to Save Money on Groceries! 502
12 Simple Linear Regression and Correlation 503

Introduction 504
12.1 Simple Linear Regression 504
A Simple Linear Model 505
The Method of Least Squares 507
Exercises 509
12.2 An Analysis of Variance for Linear Regression 511
Exercises 514
12.3 Testing the Usefulness of the Linear Regression Model 516
Inferences About b, the Slope of the Line of Means 516
The Analysis of Variance F-Test 519
Measuring the Strength of the Relationship:
The Coefficient of Determination 520
Interpreting the Results of a Significant Regression 521
Exercises 522
Contents xi
12.4 Diagnostic Tools for Checking the Regression Assumptions 525

Dependent Error Terms 525
Residual Plots 525
Exercises 526
12.5 Estimation and Prediction Using the Fitted Line 530
Exercises 534
12.6 Correlation Analysis 537
Exercises 540
Chapter Review 543

Case Study: Is Your Car “Made in the U.S.A.”? 553
13 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis 555

Introduction 556
13.1 The Multiple Regression Model 556
13.2 Multiple Regression Analysis 558
The Method of Least Squares 558
The Analysis of Variance 559
Testing the Usefulness of the Regression Model 561
Interpreting the Results of a Significant Regression 562
Best Subsets Regression 563
Checking the Regression Assumptions 564
Using the Regression Model for Estimation and Prediction 564
Exercises 565
13.3 A Polynomial Regression Model 567
Exercises 570
13.4 Using Quantitative and Qualitative Predictor Variables in a Regression
Model 573
Exercises 578
13.5 Testing Sets of Regression Coefficients 582
13.6 Other Topics in Multiple Linear Regression 584
Interpreting Residual Plots 584
Stepwise Regression Analysis 586
Binary Logistic Regression 587
Misinterpreting a Regression Analysis 587
13.7 Steps to Follow When Building a Multiple Regression Model 589
xii Contents
Chapter Review 589

Case Study: “Made in the U.S.A.”—Another Look 598
14 Analysis of Categorical Data 599

14.1 The Multinomial Experiment and the Chi-Square Statistic 600
14.2 Testing Specified Cell Probabilities: The Goodness-of-Fit Test 602
Exercises 604
14.3 Contingency Tables: A Two-Way Classification 606
The Chi-Square Test of Independence 607
Exercises 611
14.4 Comparing Several Multinomial Populations: A Two-Way Classification with
Fixed Row or Column Totals 614
Exercises 616
14.5 Other Topics in Categorical Data Analysis 619
The Equivalence of Statistical Tests 619
Other Applications of the Chi-Square Test 620
Chapter Review 621

Case Study: Who Is the Primary Breadwinner in Your Family? 631
15 Nonparametric Statistics 633

Introduction 634
15.1 The Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test: Independent Random Samples 634
Normal Approximation for the Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test 638
Exercises 641
15.2 The Sign Test for a Paired Experiment 643
Normal Approximation for the Sign Test 644
Exercises 646
15.3 A Comparison of Statistical Tests 648
15.4 The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test for a Paired Experiment 648
Normal Approximation for the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test 652
Exercises 653
15.5 The Kruskal–Wallis H-Test for Completely Randomized Designs 655
Exercises 658
Contents xiii
15.6 The Friedman Fr-Test for Randomized Block Designs 660

Exercises 663
15.7 Rank Correlation Coefficient 666
Exercises 670
15.8 Summary 672
Chapter Review 672

Case Study: Amazon HQ2 680
Appendix I 681
Table 1 Cumulative Binomial Probabilities 682
Table 2 Cumulative Poisson Probabilities 688
Table 3 Areas under the Normal Curve 690
Table 4 Critical Values of t 692
Table 5 Critical Values of Chi-Square 694
Table 6 Percentage Points of the F Distribution 696
Table 7 Critical Values of T for the Wilcoxon Rank
Sum Test, n1 # n2 704
Table 8 Critical Values of T for the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank
Test, n 5 5(1)50 706
Table 9 Critical Values of Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient
for a One-Tailed Test 707
Table 10 Random Numbers 708
Table 11 Percentage Points of the Studentized Range, q.05(k, df ) 710
Data Sources 714
Answers to Selected Exercises 727
Index 745
Preface
Every time you pick up a newspaper or a magazine, watch TV, or scroll through F acebook,
you encounter statistics. Every time you fill out a questionnaire, register at an online
website, or pass your grocery rewards card through an electronic scanner, your personal
information becomes part of a database containing your personal statistical information.
You can’t avoid it! In this digital age, data collection and analysis are part of our day-to-day
activities. If you want to be an educated consumer and citizen, you need to understand how
statistics are used and misused in our daily lives.
This international metric version is designed for classrooms and students outside of
the United States. The units of measurement used in selected examples and exercises have
been changed from U.S. Customary units to metric units. We did not update problems that
are specific to U.S. Customary units, such as passing yards in football or data related to
specific publications.
The Secret to Our Success

The first college course in introductory statistics that we ever took used Introduction to
Probability and Statistics by William Mendenhall. Since that time, this text—currently in
the fifteenth edition—has helped generations of students understand what statistics is all
about and how it can be used as a tool in their particular area of application. The secret to
the success of Introduction to Probability and Statistics is its ability to blend the old with
the new. With each revision we try to build on the strong points of previous editions, and
to look for new ways to motivate, encourage, and interest students using new technologies.
Hallmark Features of the Fifteenth Edition

The fifteenth edition keeps the traditional outline for the coverage of descriptive and
inferential statistics used in previous editions. This revision maintains the straightforward
presentation of the fourteenth edition. We have continued to simplify the language in order to
make the text more readable—without sacrificing the statistical integrity of the presentation.
We want students to understand how to apply statistical procedures, and also to understand
• how to meaningfully describe real sets of data
• how to explain the results of statistical tests in a practical way
• how to tell whether the assumptions behind statistical tests are valid
• what to do when these assumptions have been violated
Exercises
As with all previous editions, the variety and number of real applications in the exercise
sets is a major strength of this edition. We have revised the exercise sets to provide new and
xv
xvi Preface
interesting real-world situations and real data sets, many of which are drawn from current
periodicals and journals. The fifteenth edition contains over 1900 exercises, many of which
are new to this edition. Exercises are graduated in level of difficulty; some, involving only
basic techniques, can be solved by almost all students, while others, involving practical
applications and interpretation of results, will challenge students to use more sophisticated
statistical reasoning and understanding. Exercises have been rearranged to provide a more
even distribution of exercises within each chapter and a new numbering system has been
introduced, so that numbering begins again with each new section.
Organization and Coverage

We believe that Chapters 1 through 10—with the possible exception of Chapter 3—should
be covered in the order presented. The remaining chapters can be covered in any order.
The analysis of variance chapter precedes the regression chapter, so that the instructor can
present the analysis of variance as part of a regression analysis. Thus, the most effective
presentation would order these three chapters as well.
Chapters 1–3 present descriptive data analysis for both one and two variables, using
MINITAB 18, Microsoft Excel 2016®, and TI-83/84 Plus graphics. Chapter 4 includes a full
presentation of probability. The last section of Chapter 4 in the fourteenth edition of the
text, “Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions” has been moved to
become the first section in Chapter 5. As in the fourteenth edition, the chapters on analysis
of variance and linear regression include both calculational formulas and computer print-
outs in the basic text presentation. These chapters can be used with equal ease by instructors
who wish to use the “hands-on” computational approach to linear regression and ANOVA
and by those who choose to focus on the interpretation of computer-generated statistical
printouts. This edition includes expanded coverage of the uniform and exponential distri-
butions in Chapter 5 and normal probability plots for assessing normality in Chapter 7,
in addition to an expanded t-table (Table 4 in Appendix I). New topics in Chapter 13 include
best subsets regression procedures and binary logistic regression.
One important feature in the hypothesis testing chapters involves the emphasis on
p-values and their use in judging statistical significance. With the advent of computer-
generated p-values, these probabilities have become essential in reporting the results of a
statistical analysis. As such, the observed value of the test statistic and its p-value are pre-
sented together at the outset of our discussion of statistical hypothesis testing as equivalent
tools for decision-making. Statistical significance is defined in terms of preassigned values
of , and the p-value approach is presented as an alternative to the critical value approach
for testing a statistical hypothesis. Examples are presented using both the p-value and
critical value approaches to hypothesis testing. Discussion of the practical interpretation
of statistical results, along with the difference between statistical significance and practical
significance, is emphasized in the practical examples in the text.
Special Features of the Fifteenth Edition

• NEED TO KNOW. . .: This edition again includes highlighted sections called “NEED
TO KNOW. . .” and identified by this icon. These sections provide in-
formation consisting of definitions, procedures, or step-by-step hints on problem solv-
ing for specific questions such as “NEED TO KNOW… How to Construct a Relative
Frequency Histogram?” or “NEED TO KNOW… How to Decide Which Test to Use?”
• Graphical and numerical data description includes both traditional and EDA methods,
using computer graphics generated by MINITAB 18 for Windows and MS Excel 2016.
• Calculator screen captures from the TI-84 Plus calculator have been used for several
examples, allowing students to access this option for data analysis.
42.5to use. Many researchers report
you wish 30.0the smallest possible significance level for
Ford Escape which41.5 28.0
their results are statistically significant. Empirical Rule should work relatively well. That is,
Hyundai Tucson 41.5 28.0 • approximately 68% of the measurements will fall between 16.1
Jeep Cherokee For example,
43.5 the TI-84 plus output for Example
30.0 9.7 (Figure 9.9) shows z 5 0.9090909091
Jeep Compass with p-value41.5
5 0.182. Detailed instructions for28.0the TI-83/84 plus as well as MINITAB•can approximately
be 95% of the measurements will fall between 10.6
Jeep Patriot found in the41.0
Technology Today section at the26.0end of this chapter. These results are consistent Preface
• approximately 99.7% of the measurements will xvii
fall between 5.1
Kia Sportage with our hand
41.5calculations to the second decimal
28.0 place. Based on this p-value, H 0 cannot
Mazda C-5 be rejected.42.0
The results are not statistically 27.5
significant.
Toyota RAV4 42.0 30.0 Figure 2.11 6/25
Figure 9.9
Volkswagen Tiguan
TI-84 plus output for
42.0 28.0 Relative frequency
histogram for Example 2.8
Relative Frequency
Example 9.7
4/25
1. Since the data involve two variables and a third labeling variable, enter the data into
the first three columns of an Excel spreadsheet, using the labels in the table. Select Data
➤ Data Analysis ➤ Descriptive Statistics, and click OK. Highlight or type the Input 2/25
range (the data in the second and third columns) into the Descriptive Statistics Dialog
box (Figure 2.19(a)). Type an Output location, make sure the boxes for “Labels in First 0
Row” and “Summary Statistics” are both checked, and click OK. The summary statistics 8.5 14.5 20.5 26.5 32.5
Scores
(Figure 2.19(b)) will appear in the selected location in your spreadsheet.
(a) Sometimes it is easy to confuse the significance(b) level  with the p-value (or observed
Using Tchebysheff’s Theorem and the Empirical Rule
significance level). They are both probabilities calculated as areas in the tails of the sampling
distribution of the test statistic. However, the significance level  is preset by the experi-
menter before collecting the data. The p-value is linked directly to the data and actually
describes how likely or unlikely the sample results are, assuming that H 0 is true. The smaller
Tchebysheff’s Theorem gives a lower bound
the p-value, the more unlikely it is that H 0 is true!
interval x 6 ks. At least 1 2 (1/k 2 )
probably more!
? Need to Know…
Rejection Regions, p-Values, and Conclusions distribution).
The significance level, a , lets you set the risk that you are willing to take of making
an incorrect decision in a test of hypothesis.
• To set a rejection region, choose a critical value of z so that the area in the
mate of the fraction of measurements falling within 1, 2, or 3
tail(s) of the z distribution is (are) either  for a one-tailed test or a /2 for a
mean.
two-tailed test. Use the right tail for an upper-tailed test and the left tail for a
lower-tailed test. Reject H 0 when the test statistic exceeds the critical value
2. You may notice that some ofand
the cells in the spreadsheet are overlapping. To adjust
• falls
Allinexamples
the rejectionand
this, highlight the affected columns and click the Home tab. In the Cells group,
exercises in the text that contain
region. printouts or calculator
Approximating screen
s Using the Range
• To find
choose Format ➤ AutoFit Column
a p-value,are
captures
Width.
find based
You
the area in
may ontheMINITAB
want
tail “beyond” 18,
theMS Excel 2016,
the test statistic. If the or the TI-84 Plus calculator.
test is one-tailed, this is the p-value. Ifto
themodify appearance
test is two-tailed, this is only
thehalf
calculation of s
of the output by decreasing the Theseand
thedecimal
p-value outputs
accuracy are provided
in certain
must be doubled. H 0for
cells.
Reject some
Highlight
when exercises,
the appro-
the p-value is less thanwhile
a . other
measurements
exercises require the
lie within two
priate cells and click the Decreasestudent
Decimalto obtain
icon solutions
(Home tab, without
Number using
group)a computer.
to
modify the output. We have displayed 48 the accuracy
chapter 1 Describingto three
Data decimal places.
with Graphs
Name Length (km) Name Length (km) d. Use a bar graph to show the percentage of federal
Gulf fishing areas closed.
Superior 560 Titicaca 195
54428_ch09_hr_335-379.indd 347 Victoria 334 Nicaragua
54428_ch02_hr_054-095.indd 71
163 e. Use a line
9/4/18chart
12:10 to
PM show the amounts of dispersants
Huron 330 Athabasca 333 used. Is there any underlying straight line relation-
Michigan 491 Reindeer 229 ship over time?
Aral Sea 416 Tonle Sap 112
Tanganyika 672 Turkana 246
Baykal 632 Issyk Kul 184 DATA 7. election Results The 2016 election was a race
SET
Great Bear 307 Torrens 208 in which Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton
DS0129 8:37 AM
Nyasa 576 Vänern 146 9/24/18 and other candidates, winning 304 electoral votes,
Great Slave 477 Nettilling 107 or 57% of the 538 available. However, Trump only won
Erie 386 Winnipegosis 226
Winnipeg 426 Albert 160 46.1% of the popular vote, while Clinton won 48.2%.
Ontario 309 Nipigon 115 The popular vote (in thousands) for Donald Trump in
Balkhash 602 Gairdner 144 each of the 50 states is listed as follows18:
Ladoga 198 Urmia 144
Maracaibo 213 Manitoba 224 AL 1319 HI 129 MA 1091 NM 320 SD 228
Onega 232 Chad 280 AK 163 ID 409 MI 2280 NY 2820 TN 1523
Eyre 144 AZ 1252 IL 2146 MN 1323 NC 2363 TX 4685
AR 685 IN 1557 MS 701 ND 217 UT 515
Source: The World Almanac and Book of Facts 2017 CA 4484 IA 801 MO 1595 OH 2841 VT 95
CO 1202 KS 671 MT 279 OK 949 VA 1769
a. Use a stem and leaf plot to describe the lengths of CT 673 KY 1203 NE 496 OR 782 WA 1222
the world’s major lakes. DE 185 LA 1179 NV 512 PA 2971 WV 489
FL 4618 ME 336 NH 346 RI 181 WI 1405
b. Use a histogram to display these same data. How
GA 2089 MD 943 NJ 1602 SC 1155 WY 174
does this compare to the stem and leaf plot in part a?
c. Are these data symmetric or skewed? If skewed, a. By just looking at the table, what shape do you think
what is the direction of the skewing? the distribution for the popular vote by state will
have?
DATA 6. Gulf oil Spill Cleanup On April 20, 2010, the
SET b. Draw a relative frequency histogram to describe the
United States experienced a major environmental
DS0128 distribution of the popular vote for President Trump
disaster when a Deepwater Horizon drilling rig
in the 50 states.
exploded in the Gulf of Mexico. The number of person-
nel and equipment used in the Gulf oil spill cleanup, c. Did the histogram in part b confirm your guess in
beginning May 2, 2010 (Day 13) through June 9, 2010 part a? Are there any outliers? How can you explain
(Day 51) is given in the following table.17 them?
Day 13 Day 26 Day 39 Day 51 DATA 8. election Results, continued Refer to Exercise 7.
SET
Number of personnel (1000s) 3.0 17.5 20.0 24.0 Listed here is the percentage of the popular vote
DS0130
Federal Gulf fishing areas closed 3% 8% 25% 32% received by President Trump in each of the
Booms laid (kilometers) 74 504 1030 1454 50 states18:
Dispersants used (1000 liters) 590 1893 3293 4326
Vessels deployed (100s) 1.0 6.0 14.0 35.0 AL 62 HI 30 MA 33 NM 40 SD
62
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to removeAK 51 content
additional ID at any
59time ifMIsubsequent
47 rights
NY restrictions
37 TN 61
require it.
xviii Preface
The Role of Computers and Calculators in the

Fifteenth Edition—Technology Today
Computers and scientific or graphing calculators are now common tools for college students
in all disciplines. Most students are accomplished users of word processors, spreadsheets, and
databases, and they have no trouble navigating through software p ackages in the Windows en-
vironment. Many own either a scientific or a graphing calculator, very often one of the many
calculators made by Texas Instruments.™ We believe, however, that advances in computer
technology should not turn statistical analyses into a “black box.” Rather, we choose to use
the computational shortcuts that modern technology provides to give us more time to empha-
size statistical reasoning as well as the understanding and interpretation of statistical results.
In this edition, students will be able to use computers both for standard statistical analy-
ses and as a tool for reinforcing and visualizing statistical concepts. Both MS Excel 2016 and
MINITAB 18 are used exclusively as the computer packages for statistical analysis along with
procedures available using the TI-83 or TI-84 Plus calculators. However, we have chosen to
isolate the instructions for generating computer and calculator output into individual sections
called Technology Today at the end of each chapter. Each discussion uses numerical examples
to guide the student through the MS Excel commands and option necessary for the procedures
presented in that chapter, and then present the equivalent steps and commands needed to pro-
duce the same or similar results using MINITAB and the TI-83/84 Plus. We have included screen
captures from MS Excel, MINITAB 18, and the TI-84 Plus, so that the student can actually
Technology Today 89 work
through these sections as “mini-labs.”
2. Now
If you do not need click on the Variables
“hands-on” knowledge box and of MINITAB,
select MSfrom
both columns Excel,
the listoronthe
the left. (You can Plus, or if
TI-83/84
click on the Graphs option and choose one of several graphs if you like. You may also click
you are using another oncalculator or software package, you may choose to skip these
the Statistics option to select the statistics you would like to see displayed.) Click OK. sections and
simply use the printouts as guides
A display for
of descriptive the basic
statistics
Technology Today 87
forunderstanding of computer
both columns will appear in the Session or calculator
window (see outputs.
Figure 2.20(b)). You may print this output using File ➤ Print Session Window if you choose.
3. To examine the distribution of the two variables and look for outliers, you can create box
technOLOgy tOday plots using the command Graph ➤ Boxplot ➤ One Y ➤ Simple. Click OK. Select the
appropriate column of measurements in the Dialog box (see Figure 2.21(a)). You can
Numerical Descriptive measures in Excel
88 change the appearance of the box plot in several ways. Scale ➤ Axes and Ticks will
chapter 2 Describing Data with Numerical Measures
MS Excel provides most of the basic descriptive statistics presented in Chapter 2 using a
single command on the Data tab. Other descriptive allow you
statistics cantobetranspose
calculatedthe axes
using theand orient the box plot horizontally, when you check the
Function Library group on the Formulas tab. box marked “Transpose value and category scales.” Multiple Graphs provides printing
3. Notice that the sample quartiles, Q1 and Q 3, are not given in the Excel output in
options for multiple box plots. Labels will let you annotate the graph with titles and
e x a m p l e 2. 17 Figure 2.19(b). You can calculateentered
the quartiles using the function command. Place your
The following data are the front and rear leg rooms (in footnotes.
inches) for 10Ifdifferent
you have data into the worksheet as a frequency distribution (values
compact sports
utility vehicles :
13 cursor into inanone
empty
column,cellfrequencies
and select in Formulas ➤ More
another), the Functions
Data Options will➤ Statistical
allow ➤be read
the data to
QUARTILE.EXC. in that Highlight
format. The theplot
box appropriate
for the cellsleg
front in rooms
the box
is marked
shown “Array”
in Figure and type
2.21(b).
Make & Model Front Leg Room
an integer (0Rear Leg Room
5 min, 1 5 first quartile, 2 5 median, 3 5 third quartile, or 4 5 max) in the
Chevrolet Equinox 42.5 4. Save this 30.0 worksheet in a file called “Leg Room” before exiting MINITAB. We will use it
Ford Escape 41.5 box marked “Quart.”
again 28.0
The quartile (calculated using this textbook’s method) will appear
in Chapter 3.
Hyundai Tucson 41.5 in the cell you have
28.0 chosen. Using the two quartiles, you can calculate the IQR and
Jeep Cherokee 43.5 30.0
Jeep Compass Figure 2.21 41.5 construct a box plot
28.0 by hand.
Jeep Patriot 41.0 26.0
Kia Sportage 41.5 (a) 28.0 (b)
Numerical Descriptive measures in MINITAB
Mazda C-5
Toyota RAV4
42.0
42.0
27.5
30.0
Volkswagen Tiguan MINITAB provides most
42.0 28.0 of the basic descriptive statistics presented in Chapter 2 using a
single command in the drop-down menus.
1. Since the data involve two variables and a third labeling variable, enter the data into
the first three columns of an Excel spreadsheet, using the labels in the table. Select Data
➤ Data e xAnalysis
a m p l e➤ 2Descriptive
.18 Statistics, and click OK. Highlight or type the Input
range (the data in the second and The following
third columns) data areDescriptive
into the the front Statistics
and rearDialog
leg rooms (in inches) for 10 different compact sports
utilitylocation,
box (Figure 2.19(a)). Type an Output vehicles 13
make : sure the boxes for “Labels in First
Row” and “Summary Statistics” are both checked, and click OK. The summary statistics
(Figure 2.19(b)) will appear in the selected
Make location in your spreadsheet.
& Model Front Leg Room Rear Leg Room
Figure 2.19 (a) Chevrolet Equinox (b) 42.5 30.0
Ford Escape 41.5 28.0
Hyundai Tucson 41.5 28.0
Jeep Cherokee 43.5 30.0
Jeep Compass 41.5 28.0
Jeep Patriot 41.0 26.0
Numerical Descriptive
Kia Sportage measures on the41.5 TI-83/84 Plus Calculators 28.0
Mazda C-5 The TI-83/84 Plus calculators
42.0 can be used to calculate descriptive
27.5 statistics and create box
Toyota RAV4 plots using the stat ➤ CALC
42.0 and 2nd ➤ stat plot commands.
30.0
Volkswagen Tiguan 42.0 28.0
e x a m p l e 2 .1 9The following
1. Since the data involvedata
twoarevariables
the front and
andrear leg rooms
a third (in inches)
labeling for enter
variable, 10 different compact
the data into sports
the first utility
three vehicles
columns :of a MINITAB worksheet, using the labels in the table. Using the
13
2. You may notice that some of the cells in the spreadsheet

drop-down are overlapping.
menus, select To adjust
Stat ➤ Basic Statistics ➤ Display Descriptive Statistics. The
Make
this, highlight the affected columns and click the& Home
Model tab. In the Cells group,
Front Leg Room Rear Leg Room
Dialog box is shown in Figure 2.20(a).
choose Format ➤ AutoFit Column Width. You may want to modify the appearance
Chevrolet Equinox 42.5 30.0
of the output by decreasing the decimal accuracy FordinEscape
certain cells. Highlight the appro- 41.5 28.0
Figure 2.20
priate cells and click the Decrease DecimalHyundai icon (Home
Tucson tab, Number group) to 41.5 28.0
modify the output. We(a) have displayed the accuracy
Jeep to three decimal places.
Cherokee 43.5 30.0may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights,(b)
some third party content
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affectJeep Compass
the overall 41.5reserves the right to remove additional
learning experience. Cengage Learning 28.0
content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
The probability of observing 211 or fewer who prefer her brand is
P( x # 211) 5 p(0) 1 p(1) 1 ... 1 p(210) 1 p(211)
Preface xix
The normal approximation to this probability is the area to the left of 211.5 under a normal
curve with a mean of 250 and a standard deviation of 15. First calculate
Study Aids z5
x 2 m 211.5 2 250
s
5
15
5 2 2.57
The many and varied Then

exercises in the text provide the best learning tool for students em-
barking on a first coursePin statistics. The answers to all odd-numbered exercises are given
( x ≤ 211) ≈ P ( z < 2 2.57) 5 .0051
in the back of the text. Each application exercise has a title, making it easier for students
The probability
and instructors to immediately of observing
identify a sample
both value of 211
the context oforthe
less when
problemp 5 .10and
is so the
smallarea
that you
of
can conclude that one of two things has occurred: Either you have observed an unusual sample
application. All of theeven
basic exercises have been rewritten and all of the applied exercises
though really p 5 .10, or the sample reflects that the actual value of p is less than .10 and
restructured accordingperhaps
to increasing
closer to thedifficulty. New
observed sample exercises
proportion, have5been
211/2500 .08. introduced, dated
exercises have been deleted, and a new numbering system has been introduced within each
section.
6.3 exercises
the basics 12. P( x $ 6) and P( x . 6) when n 5 15 and p 5 .5
Normal Approximation? Can the normal approxima- 13. P(4 # x # 6) when n 5 25 and p 5 .2
tion be used to approximate probabilities for the bino-
mial random variable x, with values for n and p given 14. P( x $ 7) and P( x 5 5) when n 5 20 and p 5 .3
in Exercises 1–4? If not, is there another approximation 15. P( x $ 10) when n 5 20 and p 5 .4
that you could use?
1. n 5 25 and p 5 .6 2. n 5 45 and p 5 .05 applying the basics
3. n 5 25 and p 5 .3 4. n 5 15 and p 5 .5 16. A USA Today snapshot found that 47% of Ameri-
Using the Normal Approximation Find the mean and cans associate “recycling” with Earth Day.9 Suppose a
standard deviation for the binomial random variable x random sample of n 5 50 adults are polled and that the
using the information in Exercises 5–11. Then use the 47% figure is correct. Use the normal curve to approxi-
correction for continuity and approximate the probabili- mate the probabilities of the following events.
Students
ties should
using the normal be encouraged to use the
approximation. “NEED TO KNOW. . .” sections as they
occur
5. P ( xin
. the text.n 5The
9) when placement
25 and p 5 .6 of these sections is intended to answer questions as they
Recycling 47% Cleaning
would
6. P (6 normally arise
246 chapter 7 Sampling
# x # 9) when n 5in discussions.
Distributions
25 and p 5 .3 In addition, there are numerous hintslocal
23% called
parks,
beaches,etc.
“NEED
A TIP?” that appear in the margins of the text. The tips are short and 30%concise.
7. P (20 , x , 25) when n 5 100 and p 5 .2
8. P ( x . 22) when n 5 100 and p 5 .2
introduction Planting a tree
Taking care
9. P ( x $ 22) when n 5 100 and In the p5 previous
.2 three chapters, you have learned a lot about probabilityof distributions,
the Earth
such
as the binomial and normal distributions. The shape of the normal What do you relate most to Earthis
distribution determined
Day?
10.●P ( x #a 25)
● Need Tip?when n 5 100by and 5 .2 m and its standard deviation s , while the shape of the binomial distribution is
itspmean
parameter ⇔ population determined by p. These numerical descriptive measures—called parameters—are needed
P (355
11.Statistic ⇔# x # 360) when n 5 400 and p 5 .9
Sample a. Fewer than 30 individuals associate “recycling” with
to calculate the probability of observing sample results.
How Good Is 86YourCHAPTER
Approximation? Using
In practical
2 Describing Data with Table
situations,
Numerical in may beEarth
1 you
Measures
Day?
able to decide which type of probability distribution
Appendix I, find the exact valuesto usefor as the binomial
a model, but the values ofb.the
prob- More than 20that
parameters individuals
specify its associate
exact form “recycling”
are unknown.with
abilities in 26.Exercises 12–15. Then approximate Earth Day?
Snapshots Here
Here are are two
a few examples:
snapshots fromthe USA • Twenty-two percent of all fans are willing to pay
probabilitiesToday.
using the normal approximation with the c. More$75 than 10 individuals do not of associate
• The person conducting an opinion poll isorsure
more for the
that a ticket to one
responses the top
to his 100 concert
“agree/dis-
correction for continuity. Compare
• About 12% of America’s your
agree” answers.
questions
volunteers spend will follow
more “recycling”
tours. with Earth Day?
thana binomial distribution, but p, the proportion of those
Finally, sections
5 hours percalled Key Concepts
week volunteering.
who “agree” and Formulas
in the population, is Identify
unknown. appear inx each
the variable chapterandasany
being measured, a review
percentiles you can determine from this information.
in outline form of the material covered in that chapter.
• Fifty-eight percent of
• all
An cars in operation
agricultural are at
researcher least
believes that the yield per acre of a variety of wheat is
8 years old. approximately normally distributed, but the mean m and standard deviation s of the
yields are unknown.
CHAPTER REVIEW
In these cases, you must rely on the sample to learn about these parameters. The proportion of
54428_ch06_hr_212-244.indd 232
those who “agree” in the pollster’s sample provides information about the actual value of p.
2. The Empirical Rule can be used only for rela-
Key Concepts and Formulas
The mean and standard deviation of the researcher’s sample approximate the actual values of
tively mound-shaped data sets. Approximately
I.
m and s . If you want the sample to provide reliable
Measures of the Center of a Data Distribution 68%,information
95%, and 99.7% about the population,
of the measurements however, are
you must select your sample in a certain way! within one, two, and three standard deviations of
1. Arithmetic mean (mean) or average
the mean, respectively.
a. Population: m
∑ xi IV. Measures of Relative Standing
b. Sample of n measurements: x 5
7.1 Sampling plans and experimental Designs
n
1. Sample z-score: z 5
x2x
2. Median; position of the median 5 .5(n 1) s
3. Mode The way a sample is selected is called the sampling plan or p%
2. pth percentile; experimental design. Know-
of the measurements are
4. The medianing maythe be sampling
preferred toplan used in
the mean if thea particular situationsmaller, will often
and (100 2 allow
p)% are you to measure the
larger.
data are highlyreliability
skewed.or goodness of your inference. 3. Lower quartile, Q1; position of Q1 5 .25 (n 1)
Simple random sampling is a commonly used sampling plan in which every sample
II. Measures of Variability 4. Upper quartile, Q ; position of Q 5 .75 (n 1)
of size n has the same chance of being selected. For example,3 suppose you 3want to select
1. Range: R 5alargest sample 2 smallest
of size n 5 2 from a population containing 5. Interquartile
N 5 range:
4 objects.IQR If Q3 2four
5 the Q1 objects are
2. Variance identified by the symbols x 1, x 2 , x 3 , and x
V. 4 , there
The are six
Five-Numberdistinct pairs
Summary thatandcouldBox bePlots
selected,
a. Population as of
listed in Table 7.1. If the sample of n 5 1.
N measurements: 2 observations
The five-number is selected
summary: so that each of these
six samples has the same chance—one out of six or Min 1/6—of Q1 selection,
Median then Q3 the Max resulting
∑( x i 2 m ) 2
s 2 5 sample is called a simple random sample, or just a random sample.
N One-fourth of the measurements in the data set
lie between each of the four adjacent pairs of
b. Sample of n measurements:
numbers.
Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole ■●Table 7.1Due toWays
or in part. of Selecting a SamplecontentofmaySize
( ∑ xi ) the right to remove additional2.content
electronic
2 rights, some third party 2 fromfrom
be suppressed 4 Objects
the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning
2 ∑ xi2 2 reserves Box atplots areifused
any time for detecting
subsequent outliers
rights restrictions and
require it.
xx Preface
Instructor Resources
WebAssign
WebAssign for Mendenhall/Beaver/Beaver’s Introduction to Probability and Statistics, 15th
Edition, Metric Version is a flexible and fully customizable online instructional solution
that puts powerful tools in the hands of instructors, empowering you to deploy assignments,
instantly assess individual student and class performance, and help your students master the
course concepts. With WebAssign’s powerful digital platform and Introduction to Probability
and Statistics’s specific content, you can tailor your course with a wide range of assignment
settings, add your own questions and content, and access student and course analytics and
communication tools.
MindTap Reader
Available via WebAssign, MindTap Reader is Cengage’s next-generation eBook. MindTap
Reader provides robust opportunities for students to annotate, take notes, navigate, and
interact with the text. Instructors can edit the text and assets in the Reader, as well as add
videos or URLs.
Cognero
Cengage Learning Testing, powered by Cognero, is a flexible, online system that allows
you to import, edit, and manipulate content from the text’s Test Bank or elsewhere—
including your own favorite test questions; create multiple test versions in an instant; and
deliver tests from your LMS, your classroom, or wherever you want.
Instructor Solutions Manual

This time-saving online manual provides complete solutions to all the problems in the text.
You can download the solutions manual from the Instructor Companion Website.
Instructor Companion Website

Everything you need for your course in one place! This collection of book-specific class
tools is available online via www.cengage.com/login. Access and download PowerPoint
presentations, images, Instructor Solutions Manual, data sets, and more.
SnapStat
Tell the story behind the numbers with SnapStat in WebAssign. Designed with students
to bring stats to life, SnapStat uses interactive visuals to perform complex analysis online.
Labs and Projects in WebAssign allow students to crunch their own data or choose from
pre-existing data sets to get hands-on with technology and see for themselves that Statistics
is much more than just numbers.
Student Resources
WebAssign
WebAssign for Mendenhall/Beaver/Beaver’s Introduction to Probability and Statistics,
15th Edition, Metric Version lets you prepare for class with confidence. Its online learning
Preface xxi
platform for your math, statistics, and science courses helps you practice and absorb what
you learn. Videos and tutorials walk you through concepts when you’re stuck, and instant
feedback and grading let you know where you stand—so you can focus your study time
and perform better on in-class assignments. Study smarter with WebAssign!
MindTap Reader
Available via WebAssign, MindTap Reader is Cengage’s next-generation eBook. MindTap
Reader provides robust opportunities for students to annotate, take notes, navigate, and
interact with the text. Annotations captured in MindTap are automatically tied to the
Notepad app, where they can be viewed chronologically and in a cogent, linear fashion.
Online Technology Guides

Online Technology Guides, accessed via www.cengage.com, provide step-by-step instructions
for completing problems using common statistical software.
SnapStat
Learn the story behind the numbers with SnapStat in WebAssign. Designed with students
to bring stats to life, SnapStat uses interactive visuals to perform complex analysis online.
Labs and Projects in WebAssign allow you to crunch your own data or choose from pre-
existing data sets to get hands-on with technology and see for yourself that Statistics is
much more than just numbers.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to Catherine Van Der Laan and the editorial staff of Cengage
Learning for their patience, assistance, and cooperation in the preparation of this edition.
Thanks are also due to fifteenth edition reviewers Olcay Akman, Matt Harris, Zhongming
Huang, Bo Kai, Sarah Miller, and Katie Wheaton. We wish to thank authors and organiza-
tions for allowing us to reprint selected material; acknowledgments are made wherever
such material appears in the text.
Robert J. Beaver
Barbara M. Beaver
Introduction
What Is Statistics?
What is statistics? Have you ever met a statistician? Do

you know what a statistician does? Maybe you are think-
ing of the person who sits in the broadcast booth at the
Rose Bowl, recording the number of pass completions,
yards rushing, or interceptions thrown on New Year’s Day.
Or maybe just hearing the word statistics sends a shiver of
fear through you. You might think you know nothing about
statistics, but almost every time you turn on the news or
scroll through your favorite news app, you will find statis-
tics in one form or other! Here are some examples that we
Andrea Ricordi, Italy/Moment/Getty Images
found just before the 2017 November elections:
• Northam Heads Into Virginia Governor’s Race With A Small Lead. The first
major statewide elections since President Trump was inaugurated take place on
Tuesday…And while the race’s final result by itself isn’t likely to tell us much
about the national political environment, it is likely to have a big effect on the 2018
midterms. Polls show a fairly close race, with Northam slightly favored to win [over
Ed Gillespie]. An average of the last 10 surveys give Northam a 46 percent-to-43
percent advantage. Over the past month, there has been a tightening of the race, with
Gillespie closing what had been a 6-point lead. In the individual polls, though, there
is a fairly wide spread. Northam has led by as much as 17 percentage points
(a Quinnipiac University survey) and has trailed by as much as 8 points (a Hampton
University poll).1
—www.fivethirtyeight.com
• Why Trump Has a Lock on the 2020 GOP Nomination. In interviews with nearly
three-dozen GOP strategists and fundraisers over the past several tumultuous weeks,
virtually everyone told me that…they expect Trump to coast to the GOP nomina-
tion in 2020…the hurdles to a 2020 primary challenge are vivid when considering
a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll that found 91% of Trump voters said
they’d vote for him again…This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by
landline and cellular telephone Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2017, in English and Spanish, among
a random national sample of 1005 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of
3.5 points, including the design effect.2
—www.cnn.com
2 Introduction What Is Statistics?
Articles similar to these can be found in all forms of news media, and, just before a presi-
dential or congressional election, a new poll is reported almost every day. These articles are
very familiar to us; however, they might leave you with some unanswered questions. How
were the people in the poll selected? Will these people give the same response tomorrow?
Will they give the same response on election day? Will they even vote? Are these people
representative of all those who will vote on election day? It is the job of a statistician to ask
these questions and to find answers for them in the language of the poll.
Most Believe “Cover-Up” of JFK Assassination Facts
A majority of the public believes the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was part of a
larger conspiracy, not the act of one individual. In addition, most Americans think there was a
cover-up of facts about the 1963 shooting. Almost 50 years after JFK’s assassination, a FOX
news poll shows many Americans disagree with the government’s conclusions about the killing.
The Warren Commission found that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone when he shot Kennedy,
but 66 percent of the public today think the assassination was “part of a larger conspiracy” while
only 25 percent think it was the “act of one individual.”
“For older Americans, the Kennedy assassination was a traumatic experience that began
a loss of confidence in government,” commented Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman.
“Younger people have grown up with movies and documentaries that have pretty much pushed
the ‘conspiracy’ line. Therefore, it isn’t surprising there is a fairly solid national consensus that
we still don’t know the truth.”
(The poll asked): “Do you think that we know all the facts about the assassination of
President John F. Kennedy or do you think there was a cover-up?”
We Know All the Facts (%) There Was a Cover-Up (Not Sure)
All 14 74 12
Democrats 11 81 8
Republicans 18 69 13
Independents 12 71 17
—www.foxnews.com3
When you see an article like this one, do you simply read the title and the first paragraph,
or do you read further and try to understand the meaning of the numbers? How did the
authors get these numbers? Did they really interview every American with each political
affiliation? It is the job of the statistician to answer some of these questions.
Hot News: 98.68F Not Normal
After believing for more than a century that 98.6°F was the normal body temperature for
humans, researchers now say normal is not normal anymore.
For some people at some hours of the day, 99.9°F could be fine. And readings as low as
96°F turn out to be highly human.
The 98.6°F standard was derived by a German doctor in 1868. Some physicians have always
been suspicious of the good doctor’s research. His claim: 1 million readings—in an epoch
without computers.
So Mackowiak & Co. took temperature readings from 148 healthy people over a three-day
period and found that the mean temperature was 98.2°F. Only 8 percent of the readings were
98.6°F.
—The Press-Enterprise4
What questions do you have when you read this article? How did the researcher select the
148 people, and how can we be sure that the results based on these 148 people are accurate
when applied to the general population? How did the researcher arrive at the normal “high”
and “low” temperatures given in the article? How did the German doctor record 1 million
temperatures in 1868? This is another statistical problem with an application to everyday life.
Statistics is a branch of mathematics that has applications in almost every part of our
daily life. It is a new and unfamiliar language for most people, however, and, like any
Descriptive and Inferential Statistics 3
new language, statistics can seem overwhelming at first glance. But once the language of
statistics is learned and understood, it provides a powerful tool for data analysis in many
different fields of application.
The Population and the Sample

In the language of statistics, one of the most basic concepts is sampling. In most statistical
problems, a specified number of measurements or data—a sample—is drawn from a much
larger body of measurements, called the population.
Sample
Population
For the body-temperature experiment, the sample is the set of body-temperature mea-
surements for the 148 healthy people chosen by the experimenter. We hope that the sample
is representative of a much larger body of measurements—the population—the body tem-
peratures of all healthy people in the world!
Which is more important to us, the sample or the population? In most cases, we are
interested primarily in the population, but identifying each member of the population may
be difficult or impossible. Imagine trying to record the body temperature of every healthy
person on earth or the presidential preference of every registered voter in the United States!
Instead, we try to describe or predict the behavior of the population on the basis of
information obtained from a representative sample from that population.
The words sample and population have two meanings for most people. For example,
you read that a Gallup poll conducted in the United States was based on a sample of
1823 people. Presumably, each person interviewed is asked a particular question, and that
person’s response represents a single measurement in the sample. Is the sample the set of
1823 people, or is it the 1823 responses that they give?
In statistics, we distinguish between the set of objects on which the measurements are
taken and the measurements themselves. To experimenters, the objects on which measure-
ments are taken are called experimental units. The sample survey statistician calls them
elements of the sample.
Descriptive and Inferential Statistics

When first presented with a set of measurements—whether a sample or a population—you
need to find a way to organize and summarize it. The branch of statistics that gives us tools
for describing sets of measurements is called descriptive statistics. You have seen descrip-
tive statistics in many forms: bar charts, pie charts, and line charts presented by a political
candidate; numerical tables in the media; or the average rainfall amounts on your favorite
weather app. Computer-generated graphics and numerical summaries are commonplace in
our everyday communication.
Definition
Descriptive statistics are procedures used to summarize and describe the important
characteristics of a set of measurements.
If the set of measurements is the entire population, you need only to draw conclusions
based on the descriptive statistics. However, it might be too expensive or too time consum-
ing to identify each member of the population. Maybe listing the entire population would
destroy it—for example, measuring the amount of force required to cause a football helmet
crack. For these or other reasons, you may have only a sample from the population. By
looking at the sample, you want to answer questions about the population as a whole. The
branch of statistics that deals with this problem is called inferential statistics.
Definition
Inferential statistics are procedures used to make inferences (that is, draw conclusions,
make predictions, make decisions) about a population from information contained in a
sample drawn from this population.
The objective of inferential statistics is to make inferences about a population from

information contained in a sample.
Achieving the Objective of Inferential

Statistics: The Necessary Steps
How can you make inferences about a population using information contained in a sample?
The task becomes simpler if you organize the problem into a series of logical steps.
1. Specify the questions to be answered and identify the population of interest. In
the Virginia election poll, the objective is to determine who will get the most votes
on election day. So, the population of interest is the set of all votes in the Virginia
election. When you select a sample, it is important that the sample be representative
of this population, not the population of voter preferences on some day prior to
the election.
2. Decide how to select the sample. This is called the design of the experiment or the
sampling procedure. Is the sample representative of the population of interest? For
example, if a sample of registered voters is selected from the city of San Francisco,
will this sample be representative of all voters in California? Will it be the same as
a sample of “likely voters”—those who are likely to actually vote in the election?
Is the sample large enough to answer the questions posed in step 1 without wasting
time and money on additional information? A good sampling design will answer
the questions posed with minimal cost to the experimenter.
3. Select the sample and analyze the sample information. No matter how much
information the sample contains, you must use an appropriate method of analysis to
obtain it. Many of these methods, which depend on the sampling procedure in
step 2, are explained in the text.
Keys for Successful Learning 5
4. Use the information from step 3 to make an inference about the population.
Many different procedures can be used to make this inference, and some are bet-
ter than others. For example, 10 different methods might be available to estimate
human response to an experimental drug, but one procedure might be more accurate
than others. You should use the best inference-making procedure available (many of
these are explained in the text).
5. Determine the reliability of the inference. Since you are using only a fraction of
the population in drawing the conclusions described in step 4, you might be wrong!
If an agency conducts a statistical survey for you and estimates that your company’s
product will gain 34% of the market this year, how much confidence can you place
in this estimate? Is this estimate accurate to within 1, 5, or 20 percentage points? Is
it reliable enough to be used in setting production goals? Every statistical inference
should include a measure of reliability that tells you how much confidence you
have in the inference.
Now that you have learned a few basic terms and concepts, we again pose the ques-
tion asked at the beginning of this discussion: Do you know what a statistician does? The
statistician’s job is to carry out all of the preceding steps.
Keys for Successful Learning

As you begin to study statistics, you will find that there are many new terms and concepts
to be mastered. Since statistics is an applied branch of mathematics, many of these basic
concepts are mathematical—developed and based on results from calculus or higher math-
ematics. However, you do not have to be able to prove the results in order to apply them
in a logical way. In this text, we use numerical examples and commonsense arguments to
explain statistical concepts, rather than more complicated mathematical arguments.
Computers and calculators are now readily available to many students and provide
them with an invaluable tool. In the study of statistics, even the beginning student can
use packaged programs to perform statistical analyses with a high degree of speed and
accuracy. Some of the more common statistical packages available at computer facilities
are MINITABTM, SAS, and SPSS. Personal computers and laptops will support MINITAB,
MS EXCEL, JMP, and others. Many students are familiar with the TI-83 or TI-84 Plus cal-
culators, that have many built-in statistics functions. There are even online statistical pro-
grams and interactive “applets” that students can use.
These programs, called statistical software, differ in the types of analyses available,
the options within the programs, and the forms of printed results (called output). However,
they are all similar. In this book, we use both MINITAB and Microsoft Excel as statistical tools.
Understanding the basic output of these packages will help you interpret the output from
other software systems. Similarly, understanding the results shown on your TI-83 or TI-84
Plus calculator will make understanding a different calculator much easier.
At the end of most chapters, you will find a section called “Technology Today.” These
sections present numerical examples to guide you through the MINITAB, MS Excel, and
TI-83/84 Plus commands and options that are used for the procedures in that chapter. If
you are using MINITAB, MS Excel, or your TI-83/84 Plus calculator in a lab or home setting,
you may want to work through this section using your own computer or calculator so that
you become familiar with the hands-on methods. If you do not need hands-on knowl-
edge of MINITAB, MS Excel, or the TI-83/84 Plus, you may choose to skip this section
and simply use the computer printouts or calculator screen captures for analysis as they
appear in the text.
Most important, using statistics successfully requires common sense and logical think-
ing. For example, if we want to find the average height of all students at a particular uni-
versity, would we select our entire sample from the members of the basketball team? In the
body-temperature example, the logical thinker would question an 1868 average based on
1 million measurements—when computers had not yet been invented.
As you learn new statistical terms, concepts, and techniques, remember to view every
problem with a critical eye and be sure that the rule of common sense applies. Throughout
the text, we will remind you of the pitfalls and dangers in the use or misuse of statistics.
Benjamin Disraeli once said that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics!
Our purpose is to prove this claim to be wrong—to show you how to make statistics work
for you and not lie for you!
As you continue through the book, refer back to this introduction every once in a while.
Each chapter will increase your knowledge of statistics and should, in some way, help you
achieve one of the steps described here. Each of these steps is important in achieving the
overall objective of inferential statistics: to make inferences about a population using infor-
mation contained in a sample drawn from that population.
Describing Data
with Graphs 1
How Is Your Blood Pressure?
Is your blood pressure normal, or is it too high or too low?
The case study at the end of this chapter examines a large
set of blood pressure data. You will use graphs to describe
these data and compare your blood pressure with that of
others of your same age and gender.
© Photographee.eu/Shutterstock.com
Learning Objectives
Many sets of measurements are samples selected from larger populations. Other sets constitute
the entire population, as in a national census. In this chapter, you will learn what a variable is,
how to classify variables into several types, and how measurements or data are generated. You
will then learn how to use graphs to describe data sets.
Chapter Index
●● Data distributions and their shapes (1.1, 1.3)
●● Dotplots (1.3)
●● Pie charts, bar charts, line charts (1.2, 1.3)
●● Qualitative and quantitative variables—discrete and continuous (1.1)
●● Relative frequency histograms (1.4)
●● Stem and leaf plots (1.3)
●● Univariate and bivariate data (1.1)
●● Variables, experimental units, samples and populations, data (1.1)
●●Need to Know…
How to Construct a Stem and Leaf Plot

How to Construct a Relative Frequency Histogram
8 CHAPTER 1 Describing Data with Graphs
1.1 Variables and Data

In Chapters 1 and 2, we will present some basic techniques in descriptive statistics—the
branch of statistics concerned with describing sets of measurements, both samples and
populations. Once you have collected a set of measurements, how can you display this set
in a clear, understandable, and readable form? First, you must be able to define what is
meant by measurements or “data” and to categorize the types of data that you are likely to
encounter in real life. We begin by introducing some definitions.
Definition
A variable is a characteristic that changes or varies over time and/or for different
individuals or objects under consideration.
For example, body temperature is a variable that changes over time within a single indi-
vidual; it also varies from person to person. Religious affiliation, ethnic origin, income,
height, age, and number of offspring are all variables—characteristics that vary depending
on the individual chosen.
In the Introduction, we defined an experimental unit or an element of the sample as the
object on which a measurement is taken. This is the same as saying that an experimental
unit is the object on which a variable is measured. When a variable is actually measured on
a set of experimental units, a set of measurements or data result.
Definition
An experimental unit is the individual or object on which a variable is measured.
A single measurement or data value results when a variable is actually measured on
an experimental unit.
If a measurement is obtained for every experimental unit in the entire collection, the resulting
data set constitutes the population of interest. Any smaller subset of m
easurements is a sample.
Definition
A population is the set of all measurements of interest to the investigator.
Definition
A sample is a subset of measurements selected from the population of interest.
E x a m p l e 1.1 A set of five students is selected from all undergraduates at a large university, and m
easurements
are entered into a spreadsheet as shown in Figure 1.1. Identify the various elements involved
in obtaining this set of measurements.
Solution The experimental unit on which the variables are measured is a particular under-
graduate student on the campus, found in column A. Five variables are measured for each
student: grade point average (GPA), gender, year in college, major, and current number of units
Figure 1.1
Measurements on five
undergraduate students
enrolled. Each of these characteristics varies from student to student. If we consider the GPAs
of all students at this university to be the population of interest, the five GPAs in column B rep-
resent a sample from this population. If the GPA of each undergraduate student at the university
had been measured, we would have the entire population of measurements for this variable.
The second variable measured on the students is gender, in column C. This variable is
somewhat different from GPA, because it typically takes one of two values—male (M) or
female (F). If we could identify each member of the population, it would consist of a set
of Ms and Fs, one for each student at the university. The third and fourth variables, year
and major, also involve nonnumerical data—year has four categories (Fr, So, Jr, Sr), and
major has one category for each undergraduate major on campus. The last variable, current
number of units enrolled, is numerically valued, consisting of a set of numbers rather than
a set of qualities or characteristics.
Although we have discussed each variable individually, remember that we have measured
each of these five variables on a single experimental unit: the student. Therefore, in this
example, a “measurement” really consists of five observations, one for each of the five mea-
sured variables. For example, the measurement taken on student 2 produces this observation:
(2.3, F, So, Mathematics, 15)
There is a difference between a single variable measured on a single experimental unit

and multiple variables measured on a single experimental unit as in Example 1.1.
Definition
Univariate data results when a single variable is measured on a single experimental unit.
Definition
Bivariate data results when two variables are measured on a single experimental unit.
Multivariate data results when more than two variables are measured.
If you measure the body temperatures of 148 people, the resulting data are univariate. In
Example 1.1, five variables were measured on each student, resulting in multivariate data.
■ Types of Variables
Variables can be classified into one of two types: qualitative or quantitative.
Definition
Qualitative variables measure a quality or characteristic on each experimental unit.
Quantitative variables measure a numerical quantity or amount on each experimental unit.
●● Need a Tip? Qualitative variables produce data that can be separated into categories. Hence, they are
Qualitative ⇔ “quality” or called categorical variables, and produce categorical data. The variables gender, year,
characteristic
Quantitative ⇔ “quantity” or
and major in Example 1.1 are qualitative variables that produce categorical data. Here are
number some other examples:
• Political affiliation: Republican, Democrat, Independent
• Taste ranking: excellent, good, fair, poor
• Color of an M&M’S® candy: brown, yellow, red, orange, green, blue
Quantitative variables, often represented by the letter x, produce numerical data, such
as those listed here:
• x  Prime interest rate
• x  Number of passengers on a flight from Los Angeles to New York City
• x  Weight of a package ready to be shipped
• x  Volume of orange juice in a glass
Notice the difference in the types of numerical values that these quantitative variables
assume. The number of passengers, for example, can only be x  0, 1, 2, . . . , whereas the
weight of a package can be any value greater than zero, or x . 0. To describe this difference,
we define two types of quantitative variables: discrete and continuous.
Definition
A discrete variable can assume only a finite or countable number of values.
A continuous variable can assume the infinitely many values corresponding to the
points on a line interval.
●● Need a Tip? The name discrete refers to the discrete gaps between the possible values that the variable
Discrete ⇔ “listable” can assume. Variables such as number of family members, number of new car sales, and
Continuous ⇔ “unlistable”
number of defective tires returned for replacement are all examples of discrete variables. On
the other hand, variables such as height, weight, time, distance, and volume are continuous
because they can assume values at any point along a line interval. For any two values you
pick, a third value can always be found between them!
E x a m p l e 1.2 Identify each of the following variables as qualitative or quantitative:

1. The most frequent use of your microwave oven (reheating, defrosting, warming, other)
2. The number of consumers who refuse to answer a telephone survey
3. The door chosen by a mouse in a maze experiment (A, B, or C)
4. The winning time for a horse running in the Kentucky Derby
5. The number of children in a fifth-grade class who are reading at or above grade level
●● Need a Tip? Solution Variables 1 and 3 are both qualitative because only a quality or character-
Discrete variables often involve istic is measured for each individual. The categories for these two variables are shown
the “number of” items in a set.
in parentheses. The other three variables are quantitative. Variables 2 and 5 are discrete
variables that can be any of the values x  0, 1, 2, . . ., with a maximum value depending on
the number of consumers called or the number of children in the class, respectively. Variable
4, the winning time for a Kentucky Derby horse, is the only continuous variable in the list.
The winning time, if it could be measured with sufficient accuracy, could be 121 seconds,
121.5 seconds, 121.25 seconds, or any values between any two times we have listed.
Why worry about different kinds of variables (shown in Figure 1.2) and the data that they
generate? Because different types of data require different methods for description, so that
the data can be presented clearly and understandably to your audience!
Figure 1.2
Data
Types of data
Qualitative Quantitative
Discrete Continuous
1.1 Exercises
The Basics 13. Number of consumers in a poll of 1,000 who
Experimental Units Define the experimental units for c onsider nutritional labeling on food products to be
the variables described in Exercises 1–5. important
1. Gender of a student 14. Number of boating accidents along an 80-kilometer
stretch of the Colorado River
2. Number of errors on a midterm exam
15. Time required to complete a questionnaire
3. Age of a cancer patient
16. Cost of a head of lettuce
4. Number of flowers on an azalea plant
5. Color of a car entering a parking lot 17. Number of brothers and sisters you have
Qualitative or Quantitative? Are the variables in 18. Yield of wheat (in tonnes) from a one-hectare plot
Exercises 6–9 qualitative or quantitative? Populations or Samples? In Exercises 19–22,
6. Amount of time it takes to assemble a simple determine whether the data collected represents a
puzzle population or a sample.
7. Number of students in a first-grade classroom 19. A researcher uses a statewide database to determine
the percentage of Michigan drivers who have had an
8. Rating of a newly elected politician (excellent, good, accident in the last 5 years.
fair, poor)
20. One thousand citizens were interviewed
9. State in which a person lives
and their opinions regarding gun control were
Discrete or Continuous? Are the variables in E
xercises recorded.
10–18 discrete or continuous?
21. Twenty animals are put on a new diet and their
10. Population in a certain area of the United States weight gain over 3 months is recorded.
11. Weight of newspapers recycled on a single day 22. The income distribution of the top 10% of wage
12. Number of claims filed with an insurance company earners in the United States is determined using data
during a single day from the Internal Revenue Service.
Applying the Basics 25. Voter Attitudes You are a candidate for your state
legislature, and you want to survey voter attitudes about
23. Parking on Campus Six vehicles selected from a
your chances of winning.
campus vehicle database are shown in the table.
a. What is the population that is of interest to you and
One-way from which you want to choose your sample?
Commute Age of b. How is the population in part a dependent on time?
Distance Vehicle
Vehicle Type Make Carpool? (kilometers) (years) 26. Cancer Survival Times A researcher wants to esti-
1 Car Honda No 37.8 6
mate the survival time of a cancer patient after a course
2 Car Toyota No 27.5 3 of radiation therapy.
3 Truck Toyota No 16.2 4 a. What is the variable of interest to the researcher?
4 Van Dodge Yes 50.7 2
5 Motor- Harley- No 40.8 1 b. Is the variable in part a qualitative, quantitative dis-
cycle Davidson crete, or quantitative continuous?
6 Car Chevrolet No 8.6 9 c. What is the population of interest?
d. How could the researcher select a sample from the
a. What are the experimental units? population?
b. List the variables that are being measured. What e. What problems might occur in sampling from this
types are they? population?
c. Is this univariate, bivariate, or multivariate data? 27. New Teaching Methods A researcher wants to know
24. Past U.S. Presidents A data set gives the ages at whether a new way of teaching reading to deaf students is
death for each of the 38 past presidents of the United working. She measures a student’s score on a reading test
States now deceased. before and after being taught using the new method.
a. Is this data set a population or a sample? a. What is the variable being measured? What type of
b. What is the variable being measured? variable is it?
c. Is the variable in part b quantitative or b. What is the experimental unit?
qualitative? c. What is the population of interest?
1.2 Graphs for Categorical Data

After the data have been collected, they can be consolidated and summarized to show the
following information:
• What values of the variable have been measured
• How often each value has occurred
First, construct a statistical table and then use it to create a graph called a data
distribution. The type of graph you choose depends on the type of variable you have
measured.
When the variable of interest is qualitative or categorical, the statistical table is a list
of the categories along with a measure of how often each value occurred. You can measure
“how often” in three different ways:
• The frequency, or number of measurements in each category
• The relative frequency, or proportion of measurements in each category
• The percentage of measurements in each category
If you let n be the total number of measurements in the set, you can find the relative
frequency and percentage using these relationships:
Frequency
Relative frequency 
n
Percent  100 3 Relative frequency
The sum of the frequencies is always n, the sum of the relative frequencies is 1, and the sum
of the percentages is 100%.
When the variable is qualitative, the categories should be chosen so that
• a measurement will fall into one and only one category and
• each measurement has a category to fall into.
●● Need a Tip? For example,
Three steps to a data distribution:
(1) Raw data ⇒ • To categorize meat products according to the type of meat used, you might use beef,
(2) Statistical table ⇒ chicken, seafood, pork, turkey, other.
(3) Graph
• To categorize ranks of college faculty, you might use professor, associate professor,
assistant professor, instructor, lecturer, other.
The “other” category is included in both cases to allow for the possibility that a measure-
ment cannot be assigned to one of the earlier categories.
Once the measurements have been summarized in a statistical table, you can use either
a pie chart or a bar chart to display the distribution of the data. A pie chart is the familiar
circular graph that shows how the measurements are distributed among the categories. A bar
chart shows the same distribution of measurements among the categories, with the height
of the bar measuring how often a particular category was observed.
E x a m p l e 1.3 In a public education survey, 400 school administrators were asked to rate the quality of
education in the United States. Their responses are summarized in Table 1.1. Construct a pie
chart and a bar chart for this set of data.
Solution To construct a pie chart, assign one sector of a circle to each category. The
angle of each sector is determined by the proportion of measurements (or relative frequency)
in that category. Since a circle contains 3608, you can use this equation to find the angle:
Angle  Relative frequency 3 3608
■ Table 1.1 U.S. Education Rating by 400 Educators

Rating Frequency
A 35
B 260
C 93
D 12
Total 400
●● Need a Tip? Table 1.2 shows the ratings along with the frequencies, relative frequencies, percentages,
Proportions add to 1. and sector angles necessary to construct the pie chart shown in Figure 1.3. While pie charts
Percents add to 100.
Sector angles add to 360°.
use percentages to determine the relative sizes of the “pie slices,” bar charts usually plot
frequency against the categories. A bar chart for these data is shown in Figure 1.4.
■ Table 1.2 Calculations for the Pie Chart in Example 1.3

Rating Frequency Relative Frequency Percent Angle
A 35 35/400  .09 9% .09 3 360  32.48
B 260 260/400  .65 65% 234.08
C 93 93/400  .23 23% 82.88
D 12 12/400  .03 3% 10.88
Total 400 1.00 100% 3608
These two graphs look quite different. The pie chart shows the relationship of the parts to
the whole; the bar chart shows the actual quantity or frequency for each category. Since the
categories in this example are ordered “grades” (A, B, C, D), we would not want to rearrange
the bars in the chart to change its shape. In a pie chart, the order of presentation is irrelevant.
Figure 1.3 D
Pie chart for Example 1.3 3.0%
A
8.8%
C
23.3%
B
65.0%
Figure 1.4
Bar chart for Example 1.3 250
200
Frequency
150
100
50
0
A B C D
Rating
E x a m p l e 1.4 A snack size bag of peanut M&M’S candies contains 21 candies with the colors listed in
Table 1.3. The variable “color” is qualitative, so Table 1.4 lists the six categories along with
a tally of the number of candies of each color. The last three columns of Table 1.4 show how
often each category occurred. Since the categories are colors and have no particular order,
you could construct bar charts with many different shapes just by reordering the bars. To
emphasize that brown is the most frequent color, followed by blue, green, and orange, we order
the bars from largest to smallest and create the bar chart in Figure 1.5. A bar chart in which
the bars are ordered from largest to smallest is called a Pareto chart.
■ Table 1.3 Raw Data: Colors of 21 Candies

Brown Green Brown Blue
Red Red Green Brown
Yellow Orange Green Blue
Brown Blue Blue Brown
Orange Blue Brown Orange
Yellow
■ Table 1.4 Statistical Table: M&M’s Data for Example 1.4

Category Tally Frequency Relative Frequency Percent
Brown IIII I 6 6/21 28%
Green III 3 3/21 14
Orange III 3 3/21 14
Yellow II 2 2/21 10
Red II 2 2/21 10
Blue IIII 5 5/21 24
Total 21 1 100%
Figure 1.5 6
Pareto chart for
Example 1.4 5
4
Frequency
0
Brown Blue Green Orange Yellow Red
Color
1.2 Exercises
The Basics 4. Groups of People Fifty people are grouped into four
Pie and Bar Charts The data in Exercises 1–3 represent categories—A, B, C, and D—and the number of people
different ways to classify a group of 100 students in a who fall into each category is shown in the table:
statistics class. Construct a bar chart and pie chart to
describe each set of data. Category Frequency
1. 2. A 11
Final Grade Frequency Status Frequency B 14
C 20
A 31 Freshman 32
D 5
B 36 Sophomore 34
C 21 Junior 17 a. Construct a pie chart to describe the data.
D 9 Senior 9
F 3 Grad Student 8 b. Construct a bar chart to describe the data.
c. Does the shape of the bar chart in part b change
3. depending on the order of presentation of the four
College Frequency categories? Is the order of presentation important?
Humanities, Arts, & Sciences 43
d. What proportion of the people are in category B, C,
Natural/Agricultural Sciences 32
Business 17 or D?
Other 8 e. What percentage of the people are not in category B?
5. Jeans A manufacturer of jeans has plants in 9. Draw a bar chart to describe the approval rating of
California, Arizona, and Texas. Twenty-five pairs of jeans Barack Obama based on age.
are randomly selected from the computerized database, 10. What affect, if any, do the variables of gender, race,
and the state in which each is produced is recorded: age, and party affiliation have on the approval ratings?
CA AZ AZ TX CA
CA CA TX TX TX
11. Want to Be President? In an opinion poll con-
AZ AZ CA AZ TX ducted by ABC News, nearly 80% of the teens said
CA AZ TX TX TX they were not interested in being the president of the
CA AZ AZ CA CA United States.2 When asked “What’s the main reason
a. Use a pie chart to describe the data. you would not want to be president?” they gave the
responses as follows:
b. Use a bar chart to describe the data.
c. What proportion of the jeans are made in Texas? Other career plans/no interest 40%
Too much pressure 20%
d. What state produced the most jeans in the group?
Too much work 15%
e. If you want to find out whether the three plants pro- Wouldn’t be good at it 14%
duced equal numbers of jeans, how can you use the Too much arguing 5%
charts from parts a and b to help you? What conclu-
sions can you draw from these data? a. Are all of the reasons accounted for in this table?
Add another category if necessary.
b. Would you use a pie chart or a bar chart to graphi-
Applying the Basics cally describe the data? Why?
Presidential Popularity After the elections of 2016, a c. Draw the chart you chose in part b.
poll was taken to study the approval ratings for past d. If you were the person conducting the opinion poll,
presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. The what other types of questions might you want to
poll, involving 1,009 U.S. adults 18 years or older investigate?
living in the United States and the District of Columbia,
gives approval ratings by gender, race, age, and
party ID.1 Use this data for Exercises 6–10. data Facebook Fanatics The social networking site
set
acebook has grown rapidly in the last 10
F
Category George W. Bush Barack Obama DS0101 years. The following table shows the average
U.S. Adults 59 63 number of daily users (in millions) as it has grown

Gender from 2010 to 2017 in different regions in the world.3
Men 56 60 Use this data for Exercises 12–15.
Women 60 66
Race Region 2010 2017
White 64 55 United States/Canada 99 183
Nonwhite 47 82 Europe 107 271
Age Asia 64 453
18 to 34 42 75 Rest of the world 58 419
35 to 54 64 62 Total 328 1,326
551 65 55
Source: Company reports|2017 as of Q2
Party ID
Republicans 82 22
12. Use a pie chart to describe the distribution of
Independents 56 65
Democrats 41 95 average daily users for the four regions in 2017.
13. Use a bar chart to describe the distribution of
6. Draw a bar chart to describe the approval rating of average daily users for the four regions in 2010.
George W. Bush based on party ID. 14. Use a bar chart to describe the distribution of
7. Draw a bar chart to describe the approval rating of average daily users for the four regions in 2017.
George W. Bush based on age. 15. How would you describe the changes in the
8. Draw a bar chart to describe the approval rating of distribution of average daily users during this 7-year
Barack Obama based on party ID. period?
16. Back to Work How long does it take you to adjust Share of World Diamond
Revenues 20%
to your normal work routine after coming back from Russia
vacation? A bar graph with data from a USA Today
26%
snapshot is shown here: Botswana
a. Are all of the opinions accounted for in the table? Others 18%
Add another category if necessary. Canada
8–13%
b. Is the bar chart drawn accurately? That is, are the Zimbabwe
three bars in the correct proportion to each other? 10%
10%
South Africa
c. Use a pie chart to describe the opinions. Which Angola
graph is more interesting to look at? Source: Kimberley Process
17. Draw a pie chart to describe the various shares of
Adjustment from Vacation the world’s diamond revenues.
40
40 18. Draw a bar chart to describe the various shares of
34
the world’s diamond revenues.
30
19. Draw a Pareto chart to describe the various shares
Percentage
19 of the world’s diamond revenues.

20
20. Which of the charts is the most effective in describ-
10 ing the data?
data 21. Car Colors The most popular colors for compact
0 set
and sports cars in a recent year are given in the table.5
y
ys
e
tim
da
DS0102
da
ne
o
w
N
O
fe
Color Percentage Color Percentage

A
Silver 14 White/white 21
Diamonds Are Forever! Much of the world’s diamond pearl
Black/black
mining industry is located in Africa, Russia, and effect 21 Beige/brown 4
Canada. A visual representation of the various shares Gray 17 Yellow/gold 2
of the world’s diamond revenues, adapted from Time Blue 9 Green 1
Magazine,4 is shown as follows. Use this information to Red 11 Other 1
answer the questions in Exercises 17–20. Source: The World Almanac and Book of Facts 2017
Use an appropriate graph to describe these data.
1.3 Graphs for Quantitative Data

Quantitative variables measure an amount or quantity on each experimental unit. If the
variable can take only a finite or countable number of values, it is a discrete variable. A
variable that can take on the infinite number of values corresponding to points on a line
interval is called continuous.
■ Pie Charts and Bar Charts

Sometimes a quantitative variable might be measured on different segments of the popu-
lation, or for different categories of classification. For example, you might measure the
average incomes for people of different age groups, different genders, or living in differ-
ent geographic areas of the country. In such cases, you can use pie charts or bar charts to
describe the data, using the amount measured in each category. The pie chart displays how
the total quantity is distributed among the categories, and the bar chart uses the height of
the bar to display the amount in a particular category.
E x a m p l e 1.5 The amount of money expended in fiscal year 2016 by the U.S. Department of Defense in
various categories is shown in Table 1.5.6 Use both a pie chart and a bar chart to describe the
data. Compare the two forms of presentation.
■ Table 1.5 Expenses by Category

Category Amount ($ billions)
Military personnel 138.6
Operation and maintenance 244.4
Procurement 118.9
Research and development 69.0
Military construction 6.9
Other 2.5
Total 580.3
Solution Two variables are being measured: the category of expenditure (qualitative)
and the amount of the expenditure (quantitative). The bar chart in Figure 1.6 displays the
categories on the horizontal axis and the amounts on the vertical axis.
Figure 1.6 250
Bar chart for Example 1.5
Amount ($ Billions)
200
150
100
50
0
ne y
an nd
en d
ct ary
er
en
on r
pm an
th
rs lita
l
en a
ce
n
em
tru lit
io
O
nt n
lo h
pe Mi
ns i
ai tio
ve rc
co M
ur
a
m ra
oc
de ese
pe
Pr
R
O
For the pie chart in Figure 1.7, each “pie slice” represents the proportion of the total
expenditures ($580.3 billion) corresponding to its particular category. For example, for the
research and development category, the angle of the sector is
69.0
3 3608  42.88
580.3
Figure 1.7 Military

Pie chart for Example 1.5 construction
6.9
Other
2.5
Research and
development
69.0
Military
personnel
138.6
Procurement
118.9
Operation and
maintenance
244.4
Both graphs show that the largest amounts of money were spent on personnel and opera-
tions. Since there is no particular order to the categories, you are free to rearrange the bars
or sectors of the graphs in any way you like. The shape of the bar chart has no bearing on
its interpretation.
■ Line Charts
When a quantitative variable is recorded over time at equally spaced intervals (such as daily,
weekly, monthly, quarterly, or yearly), the data set forms a time series. Time series data are
most effectively presented on a line chart with time as the horizontal axis. The idea is to
try to find a pattern or trend that will likely continue into the future, and then to use that
pattern to make accurate predictions for the immediate future.
E x a m p l e 1.6 In the year 2025, the oldest “baby boomers” (born in 1946) will be 79 years old, and the oldest
“Gen Xers” (born in 1965) will be 2 years from Social Security eligibility. How will this affect
the consumer trends in the next 40 years? Will there be sufficient funds for “baby boomers” to
collect Social Security benefits? The United States Bureau of the Census gives projections for
the portion of the U.S. population that will be 85 and over in the coming years, as shown in
Table 1.6.5 Use a line chart to illustrate the data. What is the effect of stretching and shrinking
the vertical axis on the line chart?
■ Table 1.6 Population Growth Projections

Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
85 and over (millions) 6.7 9.1 14.6 19.0 19.7
Source: The World Almanac and Book of Facts 2017, p. 618
●● Need a Tip? Solution The quantitative variable “85 and over” is measured over four time intervals,
Beware of stretching or shrinking creating a time series that you can graph with a line chart. The time intervals are marked
axes when you look at a graph! on the horizontal axis and the projections on the vertical axis. The data points are then con-
nected to form the line charts in Figure 1.8. Notice the difference in the vertical scales of
the two graphs. Shrinking the scale on the vertical axis causes large changes to appear small,
and vice versa. To avoid misleading conclusions, look carefully at the scales of the verti-
cal and horizontal axes. However, from both graphs you get a clear picture of the steadily
increasing number of those 85 and older over the next 40 years.
Figure 1.8
Line charts for Example 1.6
20.0 100
85 and Older (Millions)
85 and Older (Millions)
17.5 80
15.0 60
12.5
40
10.0
20
7.5
5.0 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Year
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“The poor Prince de la Paz is covered with wounds and
contusions, and is cast into prison, where he constantly invokes the
terrible moment of his death. He thinks of nobody but his friend the
Grand Duke of Berg, and says he is the only person to whom he
looks for his salvation.
“My father, mother, and I have talked with your respected
commander. He will tell you all. I trust in your friendship, and that by
that you will save us all three and the poor prisoner.
“I have not time to say more, but I trust in you. My father will add
two lines to this letter.
“I am, from my heart,
“Your most affectionate Sister and Friend,
“Maria Luisa.”
To this letter Carlos IV. added a postscript:
“Sir and very dear Brother,

“Having talked to your worthy commander, and informed
him of all that has happened, I beg you to tell the Emperor that I
intreat him to set free the poor Prince de la Paz, who only suffers
from having been a friend of France, and at the same time beg of
him to let us go to a place which will suit us, and take with us the
same Prince. We are going now to Badajoz. I beg your reply before
then, in case we are absolutely left without means of seeing each
other, for my life is only in you and in the Emperor. In the meanwhile
I am,
“Your very affectionate Brother and Friend,
“Carlos.”
The General was also given a letter from the Queen to Murat,
which ran thus:
“Sir, my dear Brother,

“I have no friend but Your Highness. The King, my beloved
husband, writes to you imploring your friendship, for in that lies our
only hope. We both beg of you to prove you are our friend by
informing the Emperor of our sincere friendship, and of the affection
we have always professed for him, you, and all the French.
“Poor Prince de la Paz, who is wounded and imprisoned for being
our friend, is passionately attached to all France, and he is suffering
now for having desired the arrival of your troops, and for having been
our only permanent friend. He would have gone to see you had he
been free, and now he does not cease to speak of you and express
his desire to see the Emperor. Help us to end our days quietly in a
place suitable to the health of the King, which, like mine, is delicate,
and let it be in company with our friend, who is also that of Your
Highness.
“My daughter will be my interpreter if I do not have the
satisfaction of knowing Your Highness personally and talking to you.
Could you make an effort to see us, if only for a minute, by night or
when you like? Your worthy officer will tell you all we have said.
“I hope you will be able to manage what we want, and that you
will pardon all the slips and omissions in the matter, for I do not know
where I am, and you must believe that this has been from no slight to
you nor lack.
“May you live many years!
“Your most affectionate
“Luisa.”
The Queen became quite desperate as the days went by,
bringing no definite help from the Grand Duke of Berg, and in one of
her letters to her daughter she writes:
“If the Grand Duke does not see that the Emperor gives orders
for the stoppage of the intrigues against his friend the Prince de la
Paz, against me and my daughter, none of us will be safe. All the
malevolent people get round my son, and he believes them like
oracles, and on his own part he is not very inclined to magnanimity
and clemency. He must expect sad results from all this. I and my
husband think that, if my son sees the Emperor before he has given
his orders, he and those with him will tell him so many lies that he
will doubt the truth. For this reason we would beg the Grand Duke to
let the Emperor know that we are absolutely in his hands, hoping he
will give tranquillity to the King, my husband, me, and the Prince de
la Paz, whom we desire to have with us, and end our days
peacefully in a place suited to our health without giving the least
trouble to anybody. We urgently beg the Grand Duke to let us have
daily news of our mutual friend, the Prince de la Paz, because we
know absolutely nothing.”
The King added the following words in his own handwriting:
“I asked the Queen to write this, as my pains prevent my writing
much.”
The next letter from the Queen of Spain to her daughter for the
Grand Duke of Berg is without a date:
“The King, my husband, and I do not wish to be importunate nor

troublesome to the Grand Duke, who has so much to do; but we
have no other friend but him and the Emperor, and in him rest the
hopes of the King, those of the Prince de la Paz, the friend of the
Grand Duke and our own intimate one, and those of my daughter
and myself. My daughter wrote me yesterday afternoon what the
Grand Duke had said, and our hearts are filled with gratitude and
comfort, hoping for all that is good from the sacred and incomparable
personages of the Emperor and Grand Duke. But we do not want
him to be ignorant of what we know in spite of nobody telling us
anything or answering our questions, important as it was for us to
have a reply. However, we regard it all with indifference, and the only
thing which interests us is the welfare of our only and innocent
friend, the Prince de la Paz, who is also the Grand Duke’s, as he
exclaimed in his prison in the midst of the horrible treatment to which
he was exposed; for he always called the Grand Duke his friend, as
he did before the conspiracy, and he says constantly: ‘If I could only
have the good fortune for the Grand Duke to come here, I should
have nothing to fear.’
“He wanted you to come to the Court, and he was flattered by the
pleasure the Grand Duke showed in accepting his house as a
dwelling. He had some presents ready to give you, and he thought of
nothing but the moment when he could present himself to the
Emperor and the Grand Duke with all imaginable ardour. But now we
are in continual fear that he will take his life, or that he will be more
closely imprisoned if his enemies know that there is a question of his
being saved. Would it not be possible to take some precautionary
measures before the definitive resolution? The Grand Duke could
send some troops without saying why. Could they not come to the
prison and disperse the guard over him, without giving it time to fire a
shot or do anything against the Prince? For there is reason to fear
that it would do so, as they all know his wish to die, and they would
glory in killing him. So the guard could be absolutely under the
command of the Grand Duke; and if not, the Grand Duke can be
sure that the Prince de la Paz will die if he continue in the power of
the worthless traitors and in the hands of my son. Hence we repeat
the plea that he should be removed from the power of the
bloodthirsty gardes de corps, my son, and his evil companions; for
we are in continual fear of his life, although the Emperor and the
Grand Duke wish to save him. We repeat, therefore, the entreaty
that the Grand Duke should take every measure for this object,
because if time be lost his life is not safe, as it would certainly be
easier to protect the Prince in the midst of carnivorous lions and
tigers.
“After dinner yesterday, my son was with Infantado, Escoiquiz,
who is a malignant cleric, and San Carlos, who is worse than all; and
this makes us tremble, as the secret conference lasted from half-
past one till half-past three. The gentil hombre who is with my son
Charles is a cousin of San Carlos; he has talent and some learning,
but he is a malignant American and a great enemy of ours, like his
cousin San Carlos, in spite of all they have received from the King,
my husband, at the request of the Prince de la Paz, to whom they
say they are related. All those who are with my son Charles are
mixed up in the same intrigue, and inclined to do all possible harm,
and what is reported as true is the greatest untruth.
“I hope the Grand Duke will pardon all my blunders and mistakes
when I write French, as it is forty-two years since I came to Spain at
thirteen and a half years of age, so, although I speak French, I do
not speak it well.
“The Grand Duke will know what helps me, and will pardon all my
faults of the language.
“Luisa.”
Ferdinand, in his blind belief in Escoiquiz, disregarded the

counsel of other men, and, as Escoiquiz only thought of conciliating
the Corsican so as to advance his plan of Ferdinand’s union with a
member of the House of Bonaparte, the power of the French
increased daily.
It was believed that all the intrigues of Beauharnais were only to
keep the sceptre in the hand which held it, and the silly credulity on
the part of Escoiquiz was the chief cause of the consequent
misfortunes.
To a genius like Napoleon the situation of Spain was an easy
prey to his ambition, and its state of submission to the French was
seen in the fact of Caballero conforming to Murat’s desire to become
the possessor of the sword which was surrendered to Charles V. by
Francis I. of France after the Battle of Pavia.
The function in which Spain lost this heirloom is described in the
Gaceta de Madrid of April 5, 1808. The sword was borne in state to
the Grand Duke’s house. It was placed on a silver tray covered with
a puce-coloured silk cloth trimmed with a wide bright fringe, and Don
Carlos Montarges, the honorary Chief Armourer, and his attendant,
Don Manuel Trotier, went in the gala carriage with the trophy. The
carriage was drawn by mules in gala attire, and three royal lackeys
in full livery walked by the side of each. In the other carriage, also
drawn by four mules and accompanied by lackeys, came the Duke
del Parque. The sword was borne into Murat’s presence by the two
armourers, and, after giving him the King’s letter, they solemnly
presented him with the historic weapon, which was received with
many expressions of thanks.
Murat now set no bounds to his ambitious aims, especially as he
knew that his brother-in-law had decided on the dethronement of the
Bourbons in Spain. So, dazzled by the brilliance of his position, he
precipitated matters by his intrigues. He suggested the advisability of
the Infante Don Carlos going to meet Napoleon as far as Burgos, so
this journey of the Spanish Prince was arranged, Pedro Macanáz
and Don Pascual Vallejo being in attendance.
As Napoleon did not trust entirely to the perceptions of Murat, he
sent the astute Savary to reconnoitre the state of affairs in Madrid.
The clever Frenchman was as successful in Spain as he had been in
Russia, and it was soon arranged for Ferdinand to take the
undignified course of going to meet Bonaparte at Burgos, for
Escoiquiz thought that it would gain the favour of the great
Frenchman.
Before starting, Ferdinand wrote to his father begging for a letter
in which he would assure Napoleon that he (Ferdinand) professed
the same sentiments of friendship with the French as his father. The
reply to this request came from the Queen, and she said that the
pains in the King’s hand prevented his writing himself, but she had
written to the Grand Duke of Berg saying that the desired letter had
not been sent because they knew that Ferdinand had no love for
France.
CHAPTER III
HOW NAPOLEON I. CHECKMATED THE SPANISH ROYAL FAMILY
1808–1814
As Napoleon was not quite satisfied with Murat’s reports, he

determined to go himself to Spain, and Ferdinand was advised by
Escoiquiz to go to Bayonne to meet the Emperor. After holding a
council on the subject at Vittoria in the bedroom of Escoiquiz, who
was ill, Ferdinand wrote a humble letter to the Emperor, promising to
go and meet him, in spite of Savary’s objections to the want of
dignity in the suggested proceeding. In his letter to Napoleon,
Ferdinand declared that he had been raised to the throne by the free
and spontaneous abdication of his father, and to this epistle the
Emperor replied:[7]
[7] Published in the Moniteur in 1808.
“In Bayonne,
“April 16, 1808.
“My Brother,
“I have received the letter of Your Royal Highness. You will
have seen by your father’s papers what an interest I have always
shown in him, so you will allow me now to speak to you with
frankness and loyalty.
“I had hoped to come to Madrid and persuade my august friend
to make certain necessary reforms in his dominions which would
give public satisfaction. The separation of His Majesty from the
Prince of the Peace seemed to me absolutely necessary for his
happiness and that of his vassals. Events in the North retarded my
journey, and the occurrences of Aranjuez have intervened.
“I do not constitute myself a judge of what happened, or of the
conduct of the Prince of the Peace; but I know very well that it is very
dangerous to Kings for the people to become accustomed to
shedding blood in their own attempts to obtain justice. God grant that
Your Highness may not find it so yourself! It would not be for the
interest of Spain to persecute a Prince who has married a Princess
of the Royal Family, and who has so long governed the kingdom. He
has no friends already, and Your Highness will have none, either, if
you come to be disgraced one day, for people like to avenge
themselves for the respect they have had to show us.
“Moreover, how could a Cause be framed against the Prince of
the Peace without framing it also against the King and Queen, your
parents? This Cause would foment hate and seditious passions, and
the result would be fatal to the crown. To this crown Your Royal
Highness has no rights beyond those transmitted by your mother. If
the Cause soils her honour, Your Highness destroys your own rights.
Do not listen to weak, perfidious counsels. Your Highness has no
right to judge the Prince of the Peace; the sins which are imputed to
him disappear in the rights of the throne.
“I have often expressed my wish for the Prince of the Peace to be
removed from affairs. If I have not been more insistent, it has been
because my friendship for King Charles overlooked the weakness of
his affection. Oh, miserable humanity! Weakness and error are our
lot. But all this can be made right if the Prince of the Peace is exiled
from Spain, and I offer him an asylum in France.
“As the abdication of Charles IV. took place at the moment when
my armies were occupying Spain, it will seem in the eyes of all
Europe and of posterity that I sent these troops with the sole object
of dethroning my ally and friend. As a Sovereign and a neighbour, I
must therefore hear all about the event before recognizing the
abdication.
“I tell Your Royal Highness that if the abdication of Charles was
spontaneous, and he was not forced to it by the insurrection and
consequent meeting in Aranjuez, I have no objection to admitting it,
and acknowledging Your Royal Highness as King of Spain. I
therefore desire to confer with Your Royal Highness on this matter.
“The circumspection I have observed for the past month in the
matter ought to convince Your Highness that you will always have
my support if factions of any kind disturb you on the throne.
“When King Charles told me of the recent events in October, I
flattered myself that I had contributed by my entreaties to the
peaceful conclusion of the Escorial matter.
“Your Highness is not free from faults; the letter you have written
me is sufficient to show that, and I have always wished to forget it.
Being a King, you know how sacred are the rights of the throne; any
step of an hereditary Prince towards a foreign Sovereign is criminal. I
consider the marriage of a French Princess with Your Royal
Highness would be conformable to the interests of my people, and,
above all, as a circumstance which will unite me by fresh bonds to a
house which I have had every wish to honour ever since I ascended
the throne.
“Your Royal Highness ought to beware of the consequences of
popular insurrections; you might be able to make an assault on my
scattered soldiers, but it would only lead to the ruin of Spain.
“I have seen with regret some letters from the Captain-General of
Catalonia which tried to rouse the people.
“Your Royal Highness knows all the depth of my heart; you will
observe that I am full of many ideas which require consideration; but
you can be sure that in any case I shall behave to you as I have to
the King your father.
“Your Royal Highness must be assured of my desire to conciliate
matters, and to find occasions of giving you proofs of my affection
and perfect esteem.
“May God have you in His holy and worthy keeping!
“Napoleon.”[8]
[8] From the “Memorias” of Nellerto and the “Manifestation” of

Don Pedro Ceballos.
The King, oblivious of the veiled insult of the Emperor, that he

had no right to the throne beyond that transmitted by his mother, still
cringed to the Frenchman, and wrote:
“Vittoria,
“April 18, 1808.
“Señor, my Brother,
“I have received with great satisfaction your letter of the
16th, sent by General Savary. The confidence with which Your
Majesty inspires me, and my desire to show you that my father’s
abdication was the consequence of his own impulse, have decided
me to go immediately to Bayonne. I hope therefore to leave to-
morrow for Irun, proceeding thence to the country-seat of Marrae,
where Your Majesty is.
“I am, my good Brother, with the highest esteem and sincerest
affection,
“Ferdinand.”
When Ferdinand arrived at Bayonne, the Emperor went to see

him at once, and Ferdinand went down to the door to meet him. The
interview was short, but the Spanish King was invited to dinner that
night. It was noticeable that, although Napoleon was very friendly, he
never addressed his guest as “Majesty”; and hardly was Ferdinand
back in his rooms, when a message was conveyed to him by Savary
to the effect that the Emperor had determined that the Bourbons
should not return to the throne of Spain, and that, as he had
determined to put a French Prince upon the throne, he required the
son of Charles IV. to renounce the diadem of both worlds in his own
name and in that of all his family.
Pedro Ceballos was loud in his indignation at such usurpation,
when Napoleon, who had heard his remarks from the next room,
entered the apartment, upbraided him for his treachery to Charles,
and declined to enter further into the matter until Ferdinand’s father
was there to speak for himself.
After Charles had sent Napoleon a protest against his abdication,
he concentrated all his efforts on gaining the liberty of the Prince of
the Peace. Indeed, the old man seemed more upset at the risks run
by his ex-Minister than he was at the treatment he had himself
received.
Pursuant to Murat’s advice, Charles and his wife repaired to the
Escorial, and there, in this imposing but gloomy abode, they brooded
over the turn in their affairs until despair filled their hearts.
Murat, faithful to the promise made to Charles in the presence of
the Queen of Etruria on the eve of his departure for the Escorial, did
his best for the dethroned Sovereigns, and persuaded the Union to
depute him to accompany them to Bayonne to take part in the
conference with Napoleon. The fact of Godoy being in Bayonne was
another reason for the royal couple to wish to go there, as they had
not seen him since his release from captivity. The following letter,
which the King wrote to Napoleon announcing his departure for
Bayonne, shows the esteem in which they held Bonaparte:
“Aranda,
“April 25, 1808.
“Sir and Brother,

“A prey to rheumatic pains in my hands and knees, I should
be completely miserable were not my troubles alleviated by the hope
of seeing you in a few days. I cannot hold a pen, so I beg of Your
Majesty to pardon my not writing with my own hand to express the
great pleasure I have in going to enjoy your generous kindness, for I
am obliged to use a secretary.
“The Queen also writes to Your Imperial Majesty, and we beg you
to accept our united sentiments of love and confidence.
“Your protection is balm to the wounds of my heart, and I feel that
the moment in which I shall find myself in your arms will be one of
the happiest of my life, and the first, after all that has happened, on
which I shall feel sure of my existence.
“May my wishes be fulfilled!
“My sir and Brother,
“I am, Your Imperial Majesty’s faithful Ally and Friend,
“Charles.”[9]
[9] Published in the Moniteur, 1810.

The Queen’s letter to Napoleon ran thus:
“Sir and Brother,

“I should have written before to Your Imperial Majesty if the
trying situation in which we undertook the journey had not presented
so many obstacles. We have now just arrived at Aranda of Duero.
The King is in a terrible state. He is troubled with rheumatic pains in
his hands and knees, but, in spite of all, we are longing for the happy
moment of throwing ourselves into the arms of Your Imperial
Majesty, whose great generosity is beyond all expressions of our
gratitude.
“We ought to have arrived at Bayonne before now, but,
unfortunately, circumstances do not correspond with our ardent
desires, because my son’s journey has left us without horses,
money, and all other necessaries. Heaven grant that the moment of
our interview will be as interesting to Your Imperial Majesty as it will
be to us, your faithful, worthy friends! We are quite sure of the
protection of Your Majesty, and nothing in the world can compare
with the complete and sweet confidence which leads us to place our
fate under the most powerful protection of Your Majesty, whose
immutable equity is so great, as the critic of the situation of his
faithful friend and ally, since the unhappy epoch of the unheard-of
events at Aranjuez.
“If Your Majesty’s troops had arrived then, they would have
protected our legitimate rights as their great captain deigns to do, but
Heaven sent us calamities which came like thunderbolts because we
had no help, nor had we anyone to support us.
“I do not know what day we shall arrive at Bayonne, because, if
the King’s indisposition permit it, we hope to take double journeys
every day. Your Imperial Majesty may be sure that we shall fly to
your arms, so great is our desire to strengthen the sweet ties of
alliance and friendship.
“May God have you in His safe keeping!
“Sir and Brother,
“I am, Your Imperial Majesty’s most affectionate Sister,
“Luisa.”
The affectionate tone of these royal letters shows that the royal
couple thought that Napoleon was about to restore to them the
sceptre which had been torn from their hands.
When the King and Queen arrived at Villareal, they asked what
reports were circulated about affairs, and the Duke of Mahon replied:
“It is said that the Emperor of the French is calling the Royal Family
of Spain together at Bayonne in order to deprive them of the throne.”
The Queen looked surprised, but she thought for a moment, and
then said:
“Napoleon has always been a great enemy of our family.
Nevertheless, he has made Charles repeated promises to protect
him, and I cannot believe he is now acting with such scandalous
perfidy.”
The royal arrival at Bayonne was announced by a salute of 101
guns, the garrison lined the streets, and Charles, on dismounting
from his carriage, showed his pleasure at the reception vouchsafed
to him by talking even to those he did not know.
A shadow came over the King’s genial countenance when he
saw Ferdinand standing with his brother at the foot of the staircase,
and it was only the younger Prince who was given a cordial “Good-
day” by the King, and who was embraced fondly by his mother.
Although Ferdinand saw that he was ignored, he made a step
forward to greet his parents. But Charles stopped, made a
movement of indignation, and began mounting the stairs with a
severe face. The Queen, however, who was behind, could not forget
that she was a mother, and folded her treacherous son to her
bosom.
Then the Princes repaired to their apartments, and their parents
hastened to greet the exile Godoy with tears of joy.
The Emperor of the French lost no time in paying his respects to
the royal travellers, but he did not ask them to dinner until the
following day.
As Charles’s rheumatism gave him some difficulty in mounting
the stairs of the imperial abode, he gladly accepted Napoleon’s arm,
saying: “I have not the strength that I had. It has been all knocked
out of me.”
“We will soon see about that,” returned the Emperor. “Lean on
me, and I will find strength for both.”
Thereupon the King stopped, and said emphatically: “So I
believe, and I base all my hopes upon you.”
On taking their seats at the table, Charles noticed the absence of
Godoy, and he exclaimed with tender concern: “And Manuel? Where
is Manuel?”
So Napoleon, anxious to please his ally, sent for the Prince of the
Peace, and the party was complete.
At the meeting at which it was hoped Napoleon would bring the
Royal Family to a satisfactory understanding there were very violent
scenes. It was natural that the sight of their renegade son should
revive all the bitterness of the King and Queen’s recent trials, but it
was a pity that they did not restrain the passions which made them
lose their royal dignity.
The Emperor announced that Ferdinand would restore on the
morrow to His Majesty the crown he had snatched from his father’s
brow. This Ferdinand stoutly declared he would not do, and Maria
Luisa, who had destroyed the proofs of her son’s guilt in the
conspiracy of the Escorial, was now so mad with rage that,
according to the report of Caballero, she cried to the Emperor to
punish the crimes of her son by committing him to prison.
Ferdinand was silent during the interview, but a few hours later
he wrote to his father, maintaining that the abdication had been a fait
accompli and declaring that he would only give up the crown at the
request of the Cortes and all the tribunals.
To this letter the King replied:
“My Son,
“The perfidious counsels of the people about you have
brought Spain into a very critical condition, and only the Emperor can
save it.... You have been too easily led away by the hatred which
your late wife had for France, and you have thoughtlessly shared her
unjust feelings against my Ministers, your mother, and myself.
“I was obliged, in support of my rights as a King and a father, to
have you arrested, for your papers contained proof of your crime.
But as I am approaching the end of my life, and I was miserable at
the idea of my son dying in a dungeon, I let myself be softened by
your mother’s tears. And yet my subjects have been upset by the
deceitful courses of the faction you formed, and from that time I have
had no peace in my life....
“You introduced disorder into my palace, you summoned the
Royal Guard against my own person. Your father has been your
prisoner; my Prime Minister, whom I created and received into my
family, was covered with blood, and taken from one prison to
another.... I am King by the right of my fathers. My abdication was
due to force and violence. I have nothing to accept from you, nor can
I consent to any meeting or to any new and base suggestion on the
part of the people about you.”
However, Ferdinand was obstinate, and there seemed no chance

of a peaceful settlement of the disgraceful family feud.
The above letter was dated May 2, 1808, and it was on that day
that the historic blow was struck in Madrid for Spain’s emancipation
from the French. It was the sight of the young Infante Francisco’s
tears at leaving the Palace of Madrid at the call of Napoleon which
acted like a match to gunpowder. The valiant Velarde, Daoiz, and
Ruiz were martyrs on this occasion, and the dramatic way in which
the Spaniards always keep this anniversary shows that those who
struck that blow are not forgotten in the land.
When Charles IV. heard the news of the riot, he at once thought
that it had been instigated by his sons.
“Manuel, send for Charles and Ferdinand,” he said, in a firm tone.
Napoleon remained in the room restless and gloomy; Charles
and Maria Luisa looked worried and anxious. They were all seated
when Ferdinand appeared and silently stood alone before them, for
his brother was ill in bed.
The King then asked his son if he had heard the news from the
capital. When Ferdinand replied in the negative, Charles returned
vehemently, “Very well, I will tell you,” and rapidly related what had
happened. “Judge, then,” he added, “if it be possible to persuade me
that you had no part in this? And did you hasten your miserable
associates to dethrone me in order to massacre my subjects? Who
advised you to this carnage? Do you only aspire to the glory of a
tyrant?”
The Duke of Rovigo, who gives us this scene in his “Mémoires,”
says that he and the other people who were listening in the adjoining
salon could not catch Ferdinand’s reply, but they heard the Queen
exclaim: “Didn’t I always presage your perdition? See into what
abysses you throw yourself and us! Ah, you would have killed us if
we had not left Spain! What! you have made up your mind not to
answer? You do not forget your old ways. You never know anything
when you do something bad.”
During this dialogue Charles IV. angrily moved about the cane
which he used when walking, and he so far forgot his dignity as to
raise it in a threatening way to his son, in his anger at his
impenetrable countenance. When Maria Luisa finished her diatribe,
she lifted her hand as if to strike the Prince, but she checked herself
in time.
The final touch to Ferdinand’s humiliating position was given
when the Emperor said in cold, clear, chilling tones:
“Prince, I had formed my resolution from the events which
brought you to France, and now the blood spilt in Madrid confirms
my decision. This carnage can only be the work of the band which
calls you chief, and I will never recognize as King of Spain one who
breaks the old alliance of two nations and orders the assassination
of the French soldiers, whilst asking me to sanction the impious act
of dethroning your father. Such is the result of bad counsels. You are
brought to the precipice. It is to your father alone that I am in any
way bound, and if he wish it I will restore him to his throne and
accompany him to his capital.”
But Charles IV. exclaimed vehemently: “But I don’t wish it. What
could I do in a country where they have worked up such passions
against me? And I, who have always rejoiced at seeing my country
peaceful in the midst of the upset of Europe—I should dishonour my
old age if I made war in the provinces and condemned my subjects
to prison. No, no; I don’t wish it. My son will undertake it with more
pleasure than I.” Then, looking at Ferdinand with majesty mingled
with pity, he said: “Do you think it costs nothing to reign? You have
followed these perfidious counsels. I neither aspire to command nor
can I do anything. Now you must avoid the precipice as best you
can.”
As Napoleon told Ferdinand that resistance about his resignation
was useless, and would only make his fate worse, it was agreed that
the crown should be handed over to France.
So the Treaty of Bayonne was formally signed on May 6 by the
Prince of the Peace for Charles IV., and by Marshal Duroc for
Napoleon, and this step, disastrous to the nation, can thus be
distinctly traced to the family feuds induced by the Queen’s unbridled
passion for the Prince of the Peace.
Charles had passed the twenty years of his reign in a self-
indulgent, simple life, and although he did nothing to show great
devotion to his kingdom, he certainly of his own accord would have
done nothing to disturb its peace. The Count of Toreno repeats the
account which Charles gave of his daily routine to the Emperor:
“Every day, winter and summer, I hunt till twelve o’clock, when I
dine. Directly afterwards I hunt again till evening. Manuel tells me
how things are going on, and I go to bed, to begin the same life next
day, unless there is some important ceremony.”
With a Sovereign so inert, Godoy did not demur on signing the
deed of renunciation of the throne, and as Escoiquiz sanctioned the
deed, it shows that he also felt that Ferdinand was but a broken
reed.
After the humiliating events of Bayonne, the poor Queen of
Etruria sought to return to Etruria, but was detained at Nice.
Miserable at having been obliged to leave her young son ill at
Compiègne, she tried to escape to England, but, the plot being
discovered, one of her two agents was shot, the other died in prison,
and she herself was condemned to confinement in a convent at
Rome; so she did not recover her liberty nor see her child again until
the fall of Napoleon. The Queen’s claims on Etruria were
subsequently nullified by the Congress of Vienna, and she had to be
contented with the nomination of her sons to the dukedom of Lucca.
Although after the Treaty of Bayonne the city of Madrid was in the
hands of Napoleon Bonaparte, the palace could not count the
Emperor as one of the residents in the palace, for during his stay in
the Spanish capital he was installed in the mansion of the Duque del
Infantado at Chamartin, and it was from this house that he made his
entry into Madrid. “Je la tiens en fin cette Espagne si désirée,” said
the French conqueror as he passed up the magnificent staircase of
the royal palace, and placed his hand upon one of the lions on the
balustrade; then, as his eyes travelled up the matchless marbles and
fine panels and pictures of the staircase, he turned to his brother
Joseph and said: “Mon frère, vous serez mieux logé que moi.”
When passing through the magnificent apartments, he stopped
before a portrait of Philip II., and after gazing at it for some minutes
in silence turned away. Who knows what recollections may have
passed through the conqueror’s mind, of stories of this Sovereign
read in boyhood, and how little he had then thought that the throne
of this King would ever be at his disposal!
Thus ended the rapid and only visit of Napoleon to the Spanish
capital, for he went back to Chamartin, and from thence set out for
Galicia.
King Joseph soon found he had a difficult part to play at the royal
palace as ruler of a foreign nation, but, although the Spaniards could
not be supposed to be fond of him, tribute was paid to the kindness
of his heart. After a meeting held at the palace to concert steps for
dealing with the fearful famine which was devastating Madrid, the
father of Mesoneros Romanos said to his son: “Joseph has certainly
not lost his head at his elevation, neither is he unduly set up by his
rank. He seemed profoundly moved at the misery of the people, and
proclaimed his intention to do all in his power to assist them.
Certainly,” concluded the speaker, “the man is good. It is only a pity
he is called Bonaparte!”
The preference entertained by Joseph Bonaparte for a beautiful
lady, the Countess Jaruco, widow of the Governor of Havana, is well
known. The lady died, and on the night of her burial her body was
exhumed (one can imagine by whose orders), and was interred
under a shady tree in her own garden. Joseph subsequently married
the Countess’s daughter by General Merlin. The hatred of the people
got on the poor Frenchman’s nerves, and for the last four years of
his enforced reign in Madrid he kept quite in retirement, spending a
good deal of time in the Casa del Campo, to which he passed by a
tunnel entrance.
But it was not very long, as we know, before the day came for
Joseph to leave Spain.
“The excitement in our house,” writes Mesoneros Romanos, “at
the news of the evacuation of the royal palace by the French was
extreme, and it was the same in every Spanish home. The hatred of
the foreigners who had taken possession of us was very deep-
rooted, and those who had joined the Gallic banner were not safe
from actual persecution.
“The shades of a dreadful nightmare were passed, and men
talked excitedly, and women and children laughed for joy. The
Virgins del Carmen and of the Paloma were promised new robes,
and the children ran to light up the altar, backed with a valuable
picture of the Immaculate Conception—a relic of the sacking of
Godoy’s house; and after a Paternoster and a Salve my father said:
‘Now we must go to bed, for we must be up early to-morrow to see
the entry of our friends.’
“By this was meant the Anglo-Spanish army, with its chief, Lord
Wellington, and the Generals Alava, España, and Conde de
Amarante. It was indeed a fine sight; the streets were decorated, and
after a repast served in the Town Hall the English Commander-in-
Chief appeared at the windows in response to the vociferous cheers
of the crowds, and his speech, which was as cordial as was
compatible with the stiff English manner, was received with the
enthusiasm of our Southern nature.”
Then Wellington repaired to the royal palace, which the
municipality had put at his disposal. The English General’s official
proclamation, placed at the corners of the streets, struck cold on the
hearts of the Spaniards, for it savoured more of a fierce Murat than
of the General of a liberating force. The following copy is taken from
the only remaining one in the archives of the city:
“The inhabitants of Madrid must remember that their primary duty

is to maintain order, and to render the Allied Armies every assistance
in their power to continue their operations.
“The Constitution established by the Cortes in the name of H.M.
Ferdinand VII. will be proclaimed to-morrow, after which will follow
the immediate formation of the Government of the City according to
the form it prescribes.
“In the meanwhile the existing Authorities will continue in the
exercise of their functions.
“Lord Wellington,
“Duke of Ciudad Rodrigo.”
It was soon seen that Wellington did not intend to rest upon his
laurels, for he scoured the rural park of the Retiro, where a French
detachment still lingered, and took 2,000 prisoners and 200 pieces of
artillery. This act completely confirmed the confidence of the
Spaniards in the English commander, and the heads of families
eagerly repaired to the churches to take the oath of the Constitution,
which, however, conveyed little to them beyond their emancipation
from the French and the approaching return of King Ferdinand VII.
It cannot be said that Wellington made himself very popular whilst
he was at the royal palace. He received the attentions showered
upon him in his cold and stiffly courteous way, and took little pains to
be cordial with the people of importance who called upon him.
Wellington’s fancy to have his portrait painted by Goya nearly led
to the future hero of Waterloo losing his life.
For, be it known, the illustrious Spanish painter was irascible to a
degree, the more so that he was completely deaf. So when the great
General made his appearance in the studio on the banks of the river
Manzanares, the painter’s son interpreted the Englishman’s wishes
in deaf and dumb language to his father.
The sittings took place, and the artist worked assiduously; and
when he thought the portrait was far enough advanced to be seen by
the General, he placed it before him. But, unfortunately, the picture
did not please the commander, who shrugged his shoulders
contemptuously, and said in English to his friend that he would not
accept such a caricature as a gift. General Alava declined to
translate this depreciatory remark; but the artist had noticed the
scornful gestures of the Englishman, and the son in alarm saw his
father turn his eyes to the loaded pistols which always lay ready to
hand on the table. The young man’s fear was increased when
Wellington rose from his seat in a discourteous way, and put on his
hat preparatory to departure. Then Goya, enraged at the officer’s
contemptuous manner, seized the pistols, and the General clapped
his hand to his sword.
The scene would have ended in a tragedy had not Lord Alava
assured the irate General that the artist was suffering from sudden
mental aberration, and young Goya restrained his father by force
from using the deadly weapons.
Wellington gave a great ball at the Town Hall the night before he
left Madrid, and with this return for the bull-fights, serenades, and
fêtes, which had been given in his honour, he took his departure
from the Spanish capital.
The English camp in the Retiro was raised a month later by
General Hill, and it is a matter of regret that the step was
accompanied by the blowing up of the royal manufactory of
porcelain, for the fabrication is now extinct. The magnificent walls
and ceilings of one of the salons of the royal palace, decorated with
cherubs, fruit, and flowers, in this beautiful ware, show that Spain
boasted an industry which rivalled that of Sèvres, Dresden, or
Worcestershire.
The reason given for this act of vandalism was that the French
might have used the building as a barrack; but it did not satisfy the
Spanish, who could not contain their indignation at the deed, which
was made worse by the English withdrawing to Portugal and leaving
the capital.
Ferdinand, with his usual duplicity, wrote to Berthémy from
Valençay, where he was practically a prisoner. In this letter he
pleaded in a cringing way for the protection of Napoleon, who had
robbed him of his crown.
“My greatest desire,” he writes, “is to be the adopted son of His

Majesty the Emperor, our Sovereign. I believe I am worthy of this
adoption, which would make the happiness of my life, by reason of
my love and affection to the sacred person of His Majesty, and by my
submission and entire obedience to his intentions and desires.
“Moreover, I am anxious to leave Valençay, for this place is in
every way disagreeable to us and in no way suits us.
“I am glad to trust in the magnanimity of conduct and the
generous beneficence which always distinguish Your Imperial
Majesty, and to hope that my ardent desire will be soon fulfilled.
“Receive, etc.,
“Ferdinand.”
When Napoleon decided to publish this correspondence with

Ferdinand, he wrote and asked him to send a letter to show that he
had his authorization for doing so.
So, before the appearance of the letters in Le Moniteur,
Ferdinand, in obedience to the imperial request, wrote to Napoleon:
“Valençay,
“May 3, 1810.
“Señor,
“The letters now published in Le Moniteur show the whole
world the sentiments of perfect love which I entertain for Your
Imperial Majesty, and the deep desire I cherish of becoming your
adopted son. The publicity which Your Imperial Majesty has deigned
to give my letters makes me hope that you do not disapprove of my
sentiments nor of the desire I have formed, and this hope fills me
with joy.
“Permit me, sire, to confide to you the thoughts of a heart which I
do not hesitate to say is worthy of your adoption. If Your Imperial
Majesty would unite me to a French Princess, you would fulfil my
most ardent wish. By this union, apart from my personal happiness,
all Europe would be convinced of my unalterable respect for the will
of Your Majesty, and it would see that you deign to make some
return for such sincere feelings.
“I will venture to add that this union and the sight of my happiness
will exercise a beneficial effect on the destiny of all Spain, and will
rob a blind and furious people of the pretext of covering a country
with blood in the name of a Prince, the eldest son of an ancient
dynasty, who has, by a solemn treaty by his own choice and by the
most glorious of all adoptions, made himself a French Prince and a
son of Your Imperial Majesty.
“I venture to hope that such ardent wishes, and an affection so
absolute, will touch the magnanimous heart of Your Majesty, and that
you will deign to make me share the fate of the many Your Majesty
has made happy.
“Señor, I am, etc.,
“(Signed) Ferdinand.”
Charles Leopold, Baron de Colly, an astute and intriguing youth,

proposed to the Duke of Kent a plan for releasing Ferdinand from his
ignoble position at Valençay by taking him on board an English man-
of-war to a port of Spain.
The Duke of Kent referred the matter to his father, who sent
Ferdinand two letters by the Baron. Provided with a set of passports
and all papers necessary for the undertaking, besides supplies, in
the form of diamonds and an open draft on the house of Maensoff
and Clanoy, and a ship loaded with provisions for five months, Colly
commenced operations. He reached Paris in safety, sold part of the
diamonds, and began his preparations; but the police got wind of the
plot through Colly’s secretary Albert, and he was promptly shut up in
the Castle of Vincennes.
Fouché tried to persuade Colly to continue his work, so that
Ferdinand might be caught in the act of escaping; but the
Englishman preferred his prison to such treachery, and in this prison
he remained until the fall of Napoleon.
In the meanwhile Fouché sent to Ferdinand a man called
Richard, personating Colly. But the Prince was not caught in the trap,
for, in his rooted desire to conciliate the Emperor of the French, he
sent at once for Berthémy, the Governor, and said to him:
“The English have done great harm to the Spanish nation by
using my name, and they are now the cause of the blood which is
being spilt. The English Ministry, in their mistaken idea that I am kept
here by force, have sent an emissary to me who, under the pretext of
selling me curios, has given me a letter from His Majesty the King of
England.”
The letter from George III. to Ferdinand, which was subsequently
published in Le Moniteur, ran thus:
“Sir, my Brother,
“I have for a long time wished for an opportunity to send
Your Majesty a letter signed by my hand, to express the deep
interest and the profound feeling which I have entertained for you
since you were taken from your kingdom and your faithful subjects.
Whatever the violence and cruelty with which the usurper of the
throne of Spain oppresses that nation, it ought to be of great
consolation to Your Majesty to know that your people retains its
loyalty and love for its legitimate Sovereign, and Spain makes
continual efforts to maintain the rights of Your Majesty and to re-
establish those of the monarchy. The resources of my kingdom, my
squadrons, and my armies, will be employed in aiding the vassals of
Your Majesty in this great cause, and my ally the Prince Regent of
Portugal has also contributed with all the zeal and perseverance of
his faithful friend.
“The only thing which is wanting to your faithful subjects and your
allies is the presence of Your Majesty in Spain, where it would give
fresh energy. Therefore I ask Your Majesty, with all the frankness of
alliance and friendship which bind me to your interests, to think of
the most prudent and efficacious way of escaping from the
indignities which you suffer, and to present yourself in the midst of a
people unanimous in its desire for the glory and happiness of Your
Majesty.
“I beg Your Majesty to be sure of my sincere friendship, and of
the true affection with which I am—in the palace of the Queen,
Monday, January 31, 1810—sir, my Brother,
“Your worthy Brother,
“George R.”
“By command of the King,
“Wellesley.”[10]
[10] “Monitor de Paris, traducido por Don Juan Maria Blanco en

el ‘Español’ publicado en Londres,” tomo i., p. 136.
But Ferdinand’s cross-grained nature was unable to follow any

straightforward advice or adopt any clear course. However, we all
know how the people’s desire to have a Spaniard on the throne,
aided by the troops of England, was finally successful, and
Ferdinand the Desired entered his capital on May 13, amid cries of
delight from his people, who were wild with joy.
CHAPTER IV
KING FERDINAND VII. AND HIS HOME LIFE
1814–1829
So Spaniards once more had a King of their own blood. The pity of
the matter was that the man himself was so unworthy of the people’s
trust. Brought up in a Court honeycombed with intrigue, truth and
sincerity seemed unknown to Ferdinand, and although he constantly
said, “I hate and abhor despotism,” there never was a Sovereign
more despotic than this son of Charles IV.
Being untrustworthy himself, he thought everybody was
unreliable, and so he set spies on his entourage, and stooped to
listen to stories from his servants.
Thus, no Minister or officer was safe from being sent off to prison,
and with the duplicity which had been perfected by constant practice
in his youth sentence of condemnation would be given by Ferdinand
with an air of friendliness, with a wave of his cigar or the offer of his
caramels, followed by thrumming on the table, or the pulling of his
ear, or the slapping of his forehead, with which his courtiers were
familiar as signs of bad temper.
The Duke of Alagon was the King’s most constant attendant in
any gallant adventure, and, indeed, his departures in that respect
were those of a man who seemed to atone for his want of personal
attractions by a surplus of gallantry to the fair sex. It was whilst
pursuing one of these intrigues with a charming widow at the royal
Another random document with
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Title: Racconti storici
Author: Giambattista Bazzoni
Release date: December 12, 2023 [eBook #72382]
Language: Italian
Original publication: Milano: Manini, 1832
Credits: Barbara Magni
*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK RACCONTI

STORICI ***
RACCONTI STORICI
RACCONTI STORICI
DI
Giambattista Bazzoni
MILANO
Presso Omobono Manini
1832.
INDICE
AVVERTIMENTO
DELL’EDITORE
Avendo io richiesto al signor Giambattista Bazzoni qualche suo

breve lavoro onde pubblicarlo in occasione del nuovo anno, egli
cortesemente mi diede tre sue Novelle che furono da me tostamente
poste in luce col corredo tipografico ch’io mi seppi migliore.
Il rapidissimo smaltimento della numerosa edizione di quelle Novelle,
la ricerca che delle medesime continua ad essermi fatta, sarebbero
bastate a determinarmi a pubblicarle una seconda volta, se anco per
meglio convalidare il mio pensiero, ed a renderlo, mi lusingo, più
gradevole, non m’avesse l’Autore concessa la pubblicazione di altri
suoi Racconti inediti, i quali sono l’Ingelinda, Macaruffo o la Corte del
Duca Filippo Maria Visconti e il Sotterraneo, a cui aggiunse la Scena
Storica il Bravo e la Dama, già apparsa in luce con molti lodati
componimenti di diversi autori nel libro intitolato Non ti scordar di
me.
Offro ora dunque al Pubblico questa, dirò, raccolta di Racconti
Storici del Signor Bazzoni colla fiducia che sarà per essere accetta
non meno favorevolmente di quello che lo furono gli altri di lui lavori.
Spero poi che i cortesi Lettori mi sapranno grado d’avere adornato il
volumetto di non poche incisioni, condotte da giovane ma valente
mano, il maggior numero de’ disegni delle quali li ottenne l’Autore
dalla gentilezza dell’egregio e distintissimo Professore Hayez, nome
sì universalmente conosciuto e pari ad ogni elogio.
La eleganza dell’edizione e le cose contenute fanno quindi che io
auguri prosperamente dell’esito dell’opera, nè avverrà certo che la
mia aspettativa vadi delusa, s’è pur vero che sia oggi giorno fatto
generale l’amore delle storiche cognizioni, specialmente quando
vengono presentate sotto forma di dilettevoli ed animati quadri.
Omobono Manini.
INGELINDA
O LA SUORA BENEDETTINA
Ahi! nelle insonni tenebre

Pei claustri solitari
Fra il canto delle vergini
Ai supplicati altari
Sempre al pensier tornavano
Gli irrevocati dì.
Adelchi Att. IV.
Quasi di fronte ad un palazzo che sfoggia nell’aspetto tutta la

sontuosità architettonica ch’era in voga al principio dello scorso
secolo, sorge in Milano una Chiesa che va congiunta ad uno de’ piu
antichi monasteri di questa città. Tal chiostro in cui vivevano le Suore
dell’Ordine di San Benedetto è il Monastero Maggiore, e la sua
chiesa s’intitola a San Maurizio; ivi Bernardo Luino, sì amabile e
sublime in opera di pennello, colorì alcune figure che rapiscono
d’ammirazione e diletto.
L’oscura porta del quadrato cortile che apriva l’ingresso al
Monastero, la contigua marmorea facciata della Chiesa, abbrunita
dagli anni, il campanile che le sovrasta, formano un quadro di linee
severe, il quale si stacca interamente dalle gaje e ridenti prospettive
che offrono gli edifizii moderni e richiama la mente ai costumi ed alla
storia delle età trapassate.
Ne’ vecchi tempi il lato occidentale del vasto giardino di quel
Chiostro veniva chiuso per una parte dal ricinto d’una rustica
casuccia, che era della famiglia dell’ortolano, quindi da un muro che
rispondeva esternamente alla contrada detta del Nilone di San
Francesco; verso la fine di tal muro eravi una quadrata torre
smussata, rozza, cadente, antico avanzo dei baluardi della città che
quivi passavano prima dell’età di Federigo Barbarossa. Altra torre
forse più vetusta e di forma rotonda sorgeva pure in quel giardino, e
vuolsi, avesse al tempo dominio romano servito di carcere ad alcuni
Santi Martiri, le cui immagini scorgevansi colà raffigurate in atto
d’affacciarsi ai ferri della grata.
La torre quadrata posta in fine al muro aveva serbato lungo tempo il
nome di Torre d’Anisperto, perchè dicevasi averla fatta costruire
quell’Arcivescovo, il quale nel nono secolo fortificò i ripari di Milano
contro i temuti assalti dei barbari; ma venne poi chiamata la torre
della Madalena, a causa che le naturali sue ruine, modificate alcun
poco dall’arte, avevano cangiato l’ingresso della torre medesima in
una grotta ripiena di ampii massi sui quali era stata adagiata una
statua rappresentante la Madalena penitente. L’edera, il musco e
varii antichi frantumi sparsi d’intorno concorrevano a dare a quel
luogo il vero carattere d’un eremo, a cui fornivano tutto il patetico
alcune annose piante frondosissime, che cingevano ed
ombreggiavano a modo di bosco quel luogo, non che un rigagnolo
che derivando quivi presso dal Nilone penetrava con dolce mormorìo
nel giardino.
Terminati i vespri, un bel giorno di Maggio del 1489, le Monache
uscite in frotta dal coro s’andavano disperdendo altre pei portici, altre
per i corritoi e pel cortile: solo due di esse presero la volta del
giardino e s’avviarono passo passo verso la grotta della Madalena.
Il sole declinato verso ponente splendeva in tutto il fulgore. Al suo
raggio si vedevano rosseggiare di sopra al muro la fronte del vicino
convento de’ Francescani e in lontananza le torri di Sant’Ambrogio.
Tutto il giardino era fiorito e la verzura stessa delle frondi s’aveva
alcun che di lucido e d’ameno che armonizzava colle belle tinte del
cielo.
Le due Suore procedevano lentamente per l’erboso vialetto l’una a
fianco dell’altra. Una era giovane, mesta, pallidissima e teneva
dogliosamente inclinato il capo; essa sembrava sostenersi a stento,
tanta era l’incertezza colla quale posava il piede; l’altra d’età poco
piu matura l’andava dolcemente sorreggendo, e mostrava in volto la
pazienza e la bontà di un angelo. Pervenute sotto gli alberi presso la
grotta, fece la maggiore d’età assidere l’altra sopra uno de’ massi, le
si pose dappresso e disse:
«Qui è fresco e quieto, non è vero Ingelinda?
«Sì, o sorella, l’aria è men calda e tutto mi pare tranquillo — in così
dire lasciò cadere una mano in grembo alla compagna, ed alzò il
capo traendo un sospiro. La sua faccia, contornata dai lini monacali,
de’ quali era forse piu bianca, rappresentava un ovale, che se fosse
stato d’alcun po’ meno scemo per estenuatezza, sarebbe apparso
perfetto; il naso, la bocca, la fronte potevano appartenere ad una
statua greca; aveva sottilissime e nere le sopracciglia, il contorno
degli occhi era tale che nessun pittore saprebbe finger meglio, solo
la pupilla immobile, appannata, non corrispondeva alla sua rara
bellezza... ella era cieca.
«Dove siamo, disse, mia cara Agnese?
«In giardino, nel boschetto, presso la grotta di Santa Maria
Madalena.
«Quel bosco e quella grotta che voi mi conduceste a vedere sei anni
sono quand’io venni la prima volta a Milano e qui fui colla mia povera
madre a ritrovarvi. Ve ne ricordate?
«L’ho presente quel giorno come se fosse oggi stesso.
«Io pure non l’ho mai dimenticato. Era dì di festa; sentii la messa con
mia madre nella Chiesa di fuori, in mezzo a gran folla di signori,
poscia entrammo qua dentro e fummo accolte con tutta cortesia, e
tosto condotte nel parlatorio — Quest’è tua cugina Agnese la figlia
dello zio Corrado d’Arona — mi disse mia madre quando voi ci
veniste incontro insieme alla Badessa. Io v’abbracciai, voi mi
colmaste di carezze e avend’io mostrato desiderio di vedere i luoghi
interni del chiostro mi guidaste nelle sale, nelle celle, per tutto ed
anche in giardino. Qui coglieste per me molte rose ed altri bei fiori, e
mi faceste visitare questa grotta: so che la Santa sta leggendo ed ha
vicino a sè un rosario ed un crocifisso.
«Per l’appunto. Rimango però compresa da meraviglia come vi
possiate rimembrare di ciò, mentre allora non restammo qui che un
momento. Voi d’altronde eravate sì giovinetta e vivace!...
«È vero, o sorella, ma allora il mio cuore contento e sereno, si
pascolava con dolcezza d’ogni cosa. Ahi come rapido passò quel
tempo!...
«Povera Ingelinda!... E avete tanto sofferto?
«Oh se sapeste quanti dolori, quanti immensi acerbissimi dolori ha
provati dappoi questo cuore, sono certa che per commozione non
potreste trattenere le lagrime!
«Sempre mi sono rammentata di voi, e il cielo sa cosa avrei dato per
potervi assistere anche da prima.
«Vedete in quale stato gli affanni m’hanno ridotta? Già quasi mi
mancano le forze di reggermi sulla persona; altro non sono che una
misera creatura vicino al sepolcro.
«Credetemi, vi raccomando ogni giorno e con tutto il fervore nelle
mie preghiere alla Vergine e spero colla grazia di Lei che i vostri mali
si calmeranno.
«O cara Agnese, pregate la Vergine che seco presto mi chiami: ogni
altra speranza è perduta; sono insanabili i miei mali.
E rimase silenziosa colla testa ripiegata sul seno. L’altra suora
rispettando il suo dolore, senza profferire parola, le prese una mano
e stringendola fra le sue leggiermente, le fece comprendere quanto
sentiva l’angoscioso suo stato.
Sorse intanto un’auretta che penetrando tra i rami di quelle antiche
piante fece nascere un improvviso ma tenue susurro, e scese a
careggiare con soffio soave il volto ad Ingelinda. Ella si scosse;
sparve un momento dalla sua fronte l’ambascia e atteggiata ad un
mesto ma ispirato sorriso: — Oh qual dolce venticello! (esclamò).
Viene esso forse dal lago a ritrovarmi ancora? Com’è caro, come
aleggia e rinfresca il mio sangue! parmi d’essere sulla mia spiaggia
di Lesa a respirare l’aria della sera che scendeva dai colli
imbalsamata dai fiori del persico. In quest’ora il lago era d’argento e
le sue acque venivano a morire sulla sabbia a’ miei piedi,
mormorando come fanno queste foglie. (Stette sospesa un istante
poi proseguì più animata). In quest’ora, sì, la sua barca spuntava,
s’avanzava, giungeva al fine e balzato a terra volavami incontro.
Quai momenti!... Quai parole!... Chi le potrebbe ridire?... Egli solo...
«Egli chi? — domandò Agnese con sorpresa e premura. Ingelinda
esitò un istante poi profferì a voce sommessa un cognome.
«Che dite?... Egli... d’Arona? il Signor della Rocca?
«Sì il conte Guido... Ma, oh cielo, (disse la cieca trepidando) forse
alcuno ci ascolta!...
«No, non v’ha anima vivente qui dappresso; anche tutto il giardino è
deserto (aggiunse Agnese, dopo avere traguardato fra i tronchi degli
alberi). Oh che mi narrate mai! Eravate voi dunque l’amata di quel
gentile Cavaliero? Intendo, intendo la vostra sventura. Infelice! so, è
già un anno, ch’egli rimase morto sul campo.
«Morto il mio Guido?... No; egli vive e forse sospira la sua Ingelinda.
«Ma come? Se si compie ora un anno appunto da che la sua
famiglia, la quale ha pure dimora in Milano poco lunge da noi,
mandò al monastero ricchi doni onde venissero celebrate solenni
preci ed esequie pel Cavaliero da voi rammentato, che dicevasi
fosse caduto combattendo pel Duca contro quei di Francia?
«Ahi funesta quanto falsa notizia! I suoi nemici non osarono tanto;
egli respira ancora... ma non è piu per me; io l’ho perduto per
sempre. — Queste parole furono pronunciate con un accento che
manifestava una desolazione profonda, inconsolabile.
Agnese a cui quella confessione del tutto nuova e inaspettata aveva
colpito in singolar modo lo spirito, corse col pensiero alla primiera
età onde rinvenire al di là delle lunghe e placide sue claustrali
abitudini qualche affetto che s’avesse il tumulto e la vita di quel
profano sentire. E avendo essa in troppo giovane età abbandonato il
mondo non intravide che lampi confusi, i quali le rammentavano però
un non so che di tenero, pieno d’una soavità e d’un cruccio
indistinto. Ciò accrebbe in essa, se pure era possibile, la pietà per
l’infelice compagna; e nelle richiamate rimembranze una trovandone
fra le più care e complete, la quale riguardava l’oggetto nomato,
quasi involontariamente trascorse a dire:
«Fanciullo mi ricordo averlo veduto armeggiare in giostra nel piano a
piè del colle della Rocca, poco fuori de’ baluardi d’Arona. Colà erasi
elevato lo steccato co’ palchi, e tutti v’accorrevano i terrazzani a
mirare lo spettacolo splendidissimo. Dal forte d’Oleggio, da Angera,
da infiniti altri luoghi oltre il Lago e il Ticino venivano i Signori e i
Castellani invitati dal Conte suo padre. Prima nel torneo
battagliarono i cavalieri d’età virile coperti d’armi lucenti e di finissime
sopravvesti, indi i giovinetti con lancia e spade spuntate. Fra tutti
ammiravasi per leggiadria e destrezza quel figliuolo del possente
Signore del paese: s’aveva un ghiazzerino di terso acciajo con
borchiette d’oro ch’era una meraviglia a vedersi; lo serrava in vita
una fascia rossa di seta con molti vaghi usolieri; teneva in testa sul
bacinetto ricoperto di velluto un pennacchino cadente a sghembo, e
con quel suo portamento, con quel suo viso fiero, ardito e al tempo
stesso sì bello e gentile rubava gli occhi, incantava le persone.
«Ardito, bello e gentile... È desso, è desso (esclamò Ingelinda
abbracciandola con trasporto, poichè quei detti avevano fatta vibrare
con tutta veemenza la corda piu tesa e sensibile dell’anima sua). Ah
voi dunque l’avete veramente veduto?... Ed era fanciullo allora: oh
se l’aveste potuto mirare nel fiore di sua giovinezza, adorno di tutte
le grazie più squisite, se aveste udita la sua voce, le sue parole, egli
vi sarebbe sembrato mille volte ancor più bello.
«Voi avete però abitato sempre a Lesa, come avvenne mai che foste
conosciuta da quel giovine Cavaliero che aveva stanza ad Arona?
«Soleva lo zio Corrado, vostro padre, ogni qual volta veniva a Lesa
far calde istanze presso mia madre onde mi lasciasse andare ad
Arona per ivi soggiornare seco lui alcun poco, poichè diceva il buon
vecchio che vedendomi in casa gli sarebbe sembrato d’avere ancora
la sua Agnese, giacchè vi teneva come perduta da che v’eravate
rinchiusa in questo lontano monastero.
«Ottimo Padre! di mio volere non l’avrei abbandonato mai; fu la
Badessa nostra parente, che qui mi volle. Ma proseguite, o cara.
«Dopo tante e tante replicate istanze, due anni sono finalmente mia
madre mi concedette di trasportarmi in Arona all’occasione della
festa della natività dell’Immacolata Bambina, la quale come sapete
viene colà celebrata con tutta pompa. Mia madre, — ah! la
sventurata non sapeva di quai fatali avvenimenti essere causa
doveva quella partenza, — riempi il fardello di mie vesti piu ricche e
sfarzose e dopo avermi baciata e ribaciata, fu presente, allorchè
sull’alba del giorno otto di settembre, adagiata in groppa al bianco
ubino di mio fratello, c’incamminammo per la strada lungo il lago ad
Arona. Era già alto il sole quando vi giungemmo; tutte le campane
suonavano a festa, le vie erano folte di gente che da terra e nelle
barche continuamente arrivava. Ornate le case, pieni i davanzali di
fiori, ogni cosa annunciava solennità e letizia. Pervenuti alla casa
dello zio non so dirvi con qual tripudio vi fummo ricevuti. Egli non
saziavasi d’abbracciarci. Ordinò venisse tosto allestita per me la
miglior camera, e che ogni cosa che io desiderassi mi fosse
immediatamente presentata. Mi assegnò per fante la Lisia...
«Oh la Lisia? (l’interruppe dicendo Agnese). La mia Lisia, chi sa se
gode di prospera salute e conserva ancora memoria di me?
«Quand’io lasciai la vostra casa, benchè essa si dicesse aggravata
dagli anni, pure era sana e vegeta, e parlava sempre di voi con
molto amore.
«Lisia mi vide nascere e mi portava il più gran bene del mondo; guai
se vedeva punirmi o negar cosa che richiedessi! S’aveva veramente
un cuor di miele; anch’io l’amava tanto. Or bene continuate, che
faceste quel primo giorno in Arona?
«La novità degli oggetti (prosegui Ingelinda), il brivido del freddo
mattinale che mi aveva assalita nel viaggio, e più d’ogni altro motivo
l’immagine di mia madre lasciata piangente avevano prodotto in me
un certo torpore increscevole. Ma l’amorosa accoglienza dello zio e
di tutta la casa, le cure dell’abbigliamento in una tiepida stanza, il
mirare dall’imposta del balcone nella piazza una ressa inusitata di
popolo festante, dissiparono a poco a poco ogni melanconica idea; e
quando sontuosamente ornata della persona, con un candido velo
che dalle chiome cadevami dietro sin quasi al piede, m’apprestai a
recarmi alle sacre funzioni, il mio cuore fatto aperto e lieto prendeva
parte alla gioja universale. Venuta l’ora, uscimmo collo zio alla volta
della chiesa. La moltitudine stipata nella via dividevasi per farci largo
— È messer Corrado co’ suoi nipoti (dicevansi l’un l’altro), lasciate
libero il passo — E mentre pur curiosamente ci affisavano in volto,
tutti restringevansi per aprirci comoda strada. Il buon vecchio
contento oltremodo di averci a’ suoi fianchi, sorrideva ringraziando
per la cortesia a noi usata. Giungemmo a Santa Maria.......
«Oh come sarà stata quel dì stupendamente addobbata?
«Era tutta ad arazzi ed oro: i cerei splendevano in cento luoghi, a
fasci piramidali, l’altare maggiore coperto di lumi, di argentee reliquie
e d’arredi, luceva come un sole. Noi andammo a collocarsi in luogo
distinto, ne’ sedili che sono dello zio. A poca distanza da noi stavano
i seggi isolati e riccamente adorni destinati al Conte Signore della
Rocca, il quale dopo pochi momenti giunse esso pure alla chiesa,
seguito dai figli co’ principali di sua famiglia; i soldati lo precedettero
colle alabarde, il clero l’accolse e l’accompagnò al posto d’onore.
Ebbero allora principio le sacre funzioni ed io genuflessa come gli
altri tutti rivolsi la mia mente al cielo. Tanto splendore, tante
ricchezze, i suoni e i cantici melodiosi, i globi d’incenso che
elevandosi formavano intorno un’odorosa nube, parve schiudessero
al mio animo il paradiso, poichè nell’intenso durare della prece io
gioiva d’una contentezza celeste, indescrivibile. Mossa dal puro
interno affetto alzava lo sguardo riconoscente quasi se assistessi
colle schiere angeliche all’eterna corte; ma... oh istante!... le mie
s’incontrarono in due pupille vive, nere, lucenti, che stavano fise
immobili a contemplarmi. Come se quegli occhi avessero penetrato
nel profondo del mio cuore, sentii per rossore salirmi al volto una
fiamma, ripiegai tosto il capo sulle mani giunte, per cui il velo, che
aveva rialzato, cadde a quel moto e ricoprimmi il volto.
«Ed era il primogenito del Conte che v’aveva guardato? —
l’interruppe chiedendo Agnese, la quale fatta immobile ascoltava con
tutta avidità quel racconto.
«Egli appunto (timida rispose e con piana voce Ingelinda). Io non
osai più durante l’intera celebrazione levare lo sguardo verso quella
parte, neppure da sotto il velo, e compiuti i santi riti, quando
uscimmo dalla chiesa progredii tutta in me raccolta cogli occhi a
terra sin che riposi il piede nella casa dello zio, poichè m’era rimasto
in petto un insolito turbamento. Quivi m’attendevano, conscie di mia
venuta, varie giovinette, amiche di vostra famiglia, le quali mi fecero
gioviale corona e seco loro mi condussero sul loggiato onde godere
della piacevole veduta delle adorne contrade e della moltitudine de’
passaggieri. Di là su, mentre io guardava ammirata ogni cosa
mescendomi all’allegro favellìo di quelle compagne, veggo avanzarsi
alla nostra volta sopra superbi destrieri bardati di velluto, due
leggiadri giovani pomposamente vestiti con cinture vermiglie
trapunte in oro.
«Uno d’essi sarà stato il Cavaliero?
«Sì. Al riconoscerlo tremai tutta, poichè sembravami che l’altre
dovessero avvedersi dell’agitazione prodotta in me dal suo apparire.
Egli passando sotto il loggiato vi gettò varii sguardi, e s’allontanò
lentamente non senza rivolgere a più riprese il capo. Essendovi varie
fanciulle colà su, io per buona sorte non venni scorta o
particolarmente distinta. Il giorno seguente poi avviandomi al
passeggio collo zio e il fratello, usciti da San Graziano fuor di porta,
lo rividi fra comitiva di nobili signori che veniva alla volta d’Arona e
m’accorsi che intorno al farsetto, in luogo della cintura vermiglia, se
n’era stretta una bianca screziata di color di rosa come era l’abito
mio. Stavagli impresso in viso un certo pallore, che nel dì
antecedente non gli aveva veduto e che ne rendeva i tratti ancor più
nobili e belli; mi rimirò vivamente e fece atto d’inchinarsi a salutarmi,
ma in quel punto mi diedi a parlare collo zio, e mostrai di non
avvedermi di lui.
«Oh così aveste voi animo di fare?
«Lo feci: però confesso il vero, cara sorella, che la notte, mentre
cercava d’abbandonarmi al sonno, egli sempre si presentava alla
mia mente e lo vedeva da prima con tutta dolcezza rimirarmi, poscia
a causa di mia severità dipartirsi da me afflitto, sdegnoso, e sentiva
di ciò un pentimento, una doglia grave inusitata al cuore. Avrei voluto
allora non essermi mai staccata dai fianchi di mia madre e
proponevami di tostamente farvi ritorno per obbliare quella
seducente e tormentosa immagine.
«E che fu?
«Appena alzata, vedendo mio fratello s’allestire per la partenza,
pregai istantemente lo zio mi lasciasse seco lui redire alle mie case.
Fu invano. Chiedevami quasi piangendo il buon vecchio, se temeva
che appo lui m’avesse alcuna cosa a mancare, mi offrì vezzi, abiti,
doni d’ogni sorta e ripetè il comando che io dovessi venire
considerata ed obbedita al pari di lui medesimo. Mi fu forza il cedere;
mio fratello partì da solo, ed ohimè abbandonai il mio animo ad una
lusinghiera aspettativa! Il Cavaliero ripassava ogni giorno dalla casa,
io lo vedeva e andava in me crescendo una tenera ansiosa cura che
occupava ogni mio pensiero. Un mattino che seduta, ricamando un
nastro presso le imposte del balcone attendeva ch’ei passasse,
poichè n’era l’ora consueta, venne la Lisia a porsi a canto a me.
Quando il Cavaliero trascorse a lenti passi la sottoposta via, quella
fante sogguardandomi con certo malizioso sorriso mi disse —
Conoscete voi quel giovine e bel signore che passa? — Io mi feci di

Introduction To Probability and Statistics Metric Version 15e Ebook PDF

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Introduction to Probability and

Statistics - Metric Version, 15e - eBook

df t.100 t.050 t.025 t.010 t.005 df

6 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 6

11 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 11

16 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921 16

21 1.323 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 21

26 1.315 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779 26

31 1.309 1.696 2.040 2.453 2.744 31

36 1.306 1.688 2.028 2.434 2.719 36

45 1.301 1.679 2.014 2.412 2.690 45

70 1.294 1.667 1.994 2.381 2.648 70

300 1.284 1.650 1.968 2.339 2.592 300

Source: Percentage points calculated using Minitab software.

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introduction: WHAT IS STATISTICS? 1

1 Describing Data with Graphs 7

2 Describing Data with Numerical Measures 54

3 Describing Bivariate Data 96

5 Discrete Probability Distributions 167

6 The Normal Probability Distribution 212

9 Large-Sample Tests of Hypotheses 335

10 Inference from Small Samples 380

11 The Analysis of Variance 445

12 Simple Linear Regression and Correlation 503

13 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis 555

14 Analysis of Categorical Data 599

answers to selected exercises 727

Introduction: What Is Statistics? 1

1 Describing Data with Graphs 7

2 Describing Data with Numerical Measures 54

2.3 Understanding and Interpreting the Standard Deviation 67

3 Describing Bivariate Data 96

Chapter Review 112

4.4 Rules for Calculating Probabilities 144

5 Discrete Probability Distributions 167

Chapter Review 200

6 The Normal Probability Distribution 212

Chapter Review 235

7 Sampling Distributions 245

Chapter Review 280

8 Large-Sample Estimation 288

Interpreting the Confidence Interval 301

Chapter Review 326

9 Large-Sample Tests of Hypotheses 335

9.6 Concluding Comments on Testing Hypotheses 369

Chapter Review 370

10 Inference from Small Samples 380

Chapter Review 430

11 The Analysis of Variance 445

Testing the Equality of the Treatment Means 453

Chapter Review 490

12 Simple Linear Regression and Correlation 503

12.4 Diagnostic Tools for Checking the Regression Assumptions 525

Chapter Review 543

13 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis 555

Chapter Review 589

14 Analysis of Categorical Data 599

U.S. Adults 59 63 number of daily users (in millions) as it has grown