Keeko Nomi An

double declining balance
5 tahun
0.4
0.24
0.144
0.0864
0.1296
1
3 tahun
0.666667 0.333333
0.222222 0.111111
0.111111
0.5
0.25
0.125
0.125
depesiasi
basecase-ckr
15845.5
7922.75
3961.375
3961.375
31691
Case1
167173
83586.5
41793.25
41793.25
334346
Case2
318500.5
159250.3
79625.13
79625.13
basecase-TGP
1 11564.4
2 6938.64
3 4163.184
4 2497.91
5 3746.866
28911
Case1
239370
143622
86173.2
51703.92
77555.88
598425
Case2
353272.8
211963.7
127178.2
76306.92
114460.4
883182
1
2
3
4
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total
4tahun
0.6
0.36
0.216
0.1296
TGP_CKR
fas prod
828000
496800
298080
178848
268272
2070000
Invest
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
2859252
Case3
155816.4
93489.84
56093.9
33656.34
50484.51
389541
Mix
315700.8
189420.5
113652.3
68191.37
102287.1
789252
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
828000
812500.8
487500.5
292500.3
336463.4
102287.1
2859252
Price
Gas Cost
FTP
gas Split
Tax
Date
2.5 $/mscf
0.3 $/mscf
5%
67.23%
40.50%
sensitivity
production
price
variable cost
capital
Gas
Production
Gross
Revenue
Operating
Cost
a x Price
a x Gas Cost
1 Basecase
2 CKR
3
4
5
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
306,000
765,000
91,800
365,000
912,500
109,500
365,000
912,500
109,500
366,000
915,000
109,800
181,000
452,500
54,300
1 Case1
2 CKR
3
4
5
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
611,807
1,529,518
183,542
730,000
1,825,000
219,000
546,248
1,365,619
163,874
366,000
914,999
109,800
31,000
77,500
9,300
1 Case2
2 CKR
3
4
5
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1 Case3
2 CKR
3
1 Basecase
2 TGP
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
917,709
2,294,273
275,313
1,095,000
2,737,500
328,500
898,355
2,245,887
269,506
607,934
1,519,834
182,380
149,677
374,193
44,903
2009
2010
2011
1,815,057
4,537,643
544,517
1,259,328
3,148,320
377,798
356,130
890,325
106,839
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
1,223,602
3,059,006
367,081
1,459,996
3,649,991
437,999
1,460,000
3,650,000
438,000
1,464,000
3,660,000
439,200
1,459,993
3,649,982
437,998
1,459,996
3,649,991
437,999
1,459,996
3,649,991
437,999
1,463,993
3,659,982
439,198
1,459,993
3,649,982
437,998
1,460,000
3,650,000
438,000
1,459,996
3,649,991
437,999
1,463,993
3,659,982
439,198
1,459,996
3,649,991
437,999
1,454,316
3,635,789
436,295
100%
100%
100%
100%
Investasi
Capital
Non Capital
31,691
119,921
228,344
334,346
2,559,707
456,688
637,001
4,999,493
685,032
399,711
3,096,985
456,688
28,911
119,527
15
16
17
18
2023
2024
2025
2026
1,103,794
2,759,484
331,138
726,102
1,815,256
217,831
494,665
1,236,663
148,400
193,285
483,212
57,985
1 Case1
2 TGP
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2,447,997
6,119,992
734,399
2,920,004
7,300,009
876,001
2,920,004
7,300,009
876,001
2,920,004
7,300,009
876,001
2,920,004
7,300,009
876,001
2,920,004
7,300,009
876,001
2,920,004
7,300,009
876,001
2,909,196
7,272,989
872,759
2,180,077
5,450,193
654,023
1,576,225
3,940,562
472,867
1,460,015
3,650,037
438,004
1,464,004
3,660,009
439,201
1,298,327
3,245,818
389,498
551,418
1,378,546
165,425
1 Case2
2 TGP
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
3,059,009
7,647,521
917,703
3,649,996
9,124,991
1,094,999
3,649,996
9,124,991
1,094,999
3,659,993
9,149,982
1,097,998
3,649,993
9,124,982
1,094,998
3,649,993
9,124,982
1,094,998
3,557,375
8,893,438
1,067,213
2,266,558
5,666,394
679,967
1,465,694
3,664,235
439,708
1,386,210
3,465,526
415,863
874,800
2,186,999
262,440
601,599
1,503,997
180,480
1 Case3
2 TGP
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
3,670,807
9,177,017
1,101,242
4,380,000
10,950,000
1,314,000
4,380,000
10,950,000
1,314,000
4,392,000
10,980,000
1,317,600
4,380,000
10,950,000
1,314,000
4,100,430
10,251,075
1,230,129
3,024,304
7,560,759
907,291
2,750,073
6,875,181
825,022
342,475
856,187
102,742
1 TGP-CKR
2
3
4
5
6
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
5,485,864
13,714,659
1,645,759
5,639,328
14,098,320
1,691,798
4,736,130
11,840,325
1,420,839
4,392,000
10,980,000
1,317,600
4,380,000
10,950,000
1,314,000
228,344
598,425
5,229,005
685,032
883,182
7,783,744
913,376
389,541
3,243,454
456,688
2,070,000
4,666,667
789,252
6,340,439
456,688
7
8
9
10
2014
2015
2016
2017
4,100,430
10,251,075
1,230,129
3,024,304
7,560,759
907,291
2,750,073
6,875,181
825,022
342,475
856,187
102,742
456,688
80%
80%
80%
80%
90%
90%
90%
90%
110%
110%
110%
110%
Unrecovered
Depresiasi
FTP
Cost
Recovery
Gross Revenue x FTP
Total Cost + Non Capital

+Depresiasi
38,250
211,721
15,846
45,625
125,346
7,923
45,625
117,423
3,961
45,750
113,761
3,961
22,625
286,605
76,476
2,743,249
167,173
91,250
1,213,731
1,599,904
83,587
68,281
247,461
41,793
45,750
151,593
41,793
3,875
507,781
0
114,714
5,274,806
318,501
136,875
2,980,533
3,627,533
159,250
112,294
890,033
1,318,790
79,625
75,992
262,005
79,625
18,710
809,560
226,882
3,641,502
157,416
777,509
44,516
563,527
0
399,711
0
0
152,950
486,608
11,564
182,500
449,563
6,939
182,500
444,939
4,163
183,000
443,363
2,498
182,499
440,496
3,747
182,500
441,746
182,500
437,999
182,999
439,198
182,499
437,998
182,500
438,000
182,500
437,999
182,999
439,198
182,500
437,999
181,789
436,295
137,974
331,138
90,763
217,831
61,833
148,400
24,161
286,329
0
0
306,000
5,963,404
239,370
365,000
1,115,371
143,622
365,000
1,019,623
86,173
365,000
962,174
51,704
365,000
927,705
77,556
365,000
953,557
365,000
876,001
363,649
872,759
272,510
654,023
197,028
472,867
182,502
438,004
183,000
439,201
162,291
389,498
68,927
850,457
0
0
382,376
8,701,447
353,273
456,250
1,053,925
2,502,197
211,964
456,250
1,306,963
127,178
457,499
1,225,176
76,307
456,249
1,171,305
114,460
456,249
1,209,458
444,672
1,067,213
283,320
679,967
183,212
439,708
173,276
415,863
109,350
262,440
75,200
1,093,856
458,851
4,344,696
155,816
547,500
1,469,816
93,490
547,500
1,407,490
56,094
549,000
1,373,694
33,656
547,500
1,347,656
50,485
512,554
1,280,613
378,038
907,291
343,759
825,022
42,809
559,430
0
0
0
4,666,667
828,000
685,733
4,666,667
13,480,865
812,501
704,916
2,504,299
487,500
592,016
2,365,028
292,500
549,000
1,610,100
336,463
547,500
1,650,463
102,287
512,554
1,332,416
378,038
907,291
343,759
825,022
42,809
559,430
120%
120%
120%
120%
Recovery
Equity to
be Split
Contractor
Share
Contractor
Tax
Net Opr.
Income
Gross Revenue Recovery
Gas Split x
Equity to be Split
Contractor
Share x Tax
Contractor Share Contractor Tax
211,721
553,279
371,969
150,648
221,322
125,346
787,155
529,204
214,328
314,876
117,423
795,077
534,530
216,485
318,046
113,761
801,239
538,673
218,162
320,510
286,605
165,895
111,531
45,170
66,361
1,529,518
1,599,904
225,096
151,332
61,289
90,043
247,461
1,118,159
751,738
304,454
447,284
151,593
763,406
513,238
207,861
305,377
77,500
2,294,273
2,737,500
1,318,790
927,097
623,287
252,431
370,856
262,005
1,257,829
845,639
342,484
503,155
374,193
3,641,502
896,140
602,475
244,002
358,473
777,509
2,370,811
1,593,896
645,528
948,368
563,527
326,798
219,707
88,981
130,725
486,608
2,572,398
1,729,423
700,416
1,029,007
449,563
3,200,428
2,151,647
871,417
1,280,230
444,939
3,205,061
2,154,763
872,679
1,282,084
443,363
3,216,637
2,162,545
875,831
1,286,714
440,496
3,209,486
2,157,737
873,884
1,283,854
441,746
3,208,245
2,156,903
873,546
1,283,357
437,999
3,211,992
2,159,422
874,566
1,284,856
439,198
3,220,784
2,165,333
876,960
1,288,373
437,998
3,211,984
2,159,417
874,564
1,284,853
438,000
3,212,000
2,159,428
874,568
1,284,859
437,999
3,211,992
2,159,422
874,566
1,284,856
439,198
3,220,784
2,165,333
876,960
1,288,373
437,999
3,211,992
2,159,422
874,566
1,284,856
436,295
3,199,495
2,151,020
871,163
1,279,857
331,138
2,428,346
1,632,577
661,194
971,383
217,831
1,597,425
1,073,949
434,949
639,000
148,400
1,088,263
731,639
296,314
435,325
286,329
196,883
132,364
53,608
78,757
5,963,404
156,588
105,274
42,636
62,638
1,115,371
6,184,638
4,157,932
1,683,963
2,473,970
1,019,623
6,280,386
4,222,304
1,710,033
2,512,271
962,174
6,337,835
4,260,926
1,725,675
2,535,251
927,705
6,372,304
4,284,100
1,735,061
2,549,040
953,557
6,346,452
4,266,720
1,728,022
2,538,698
876,001
6,424,008
4,318,861
1,749,139
2,569,722
872,759
6,400,231
4,302,875
1,742,664
2,560,211
654,023
4,796,170
3,224,465
1,305,908
1,918,557
472,867
3,467,695
2,331,331
944,189
1,387,142
438,004
3,212,032
2,159,449
874,577
1,284,872
439,201
3,220,808
2,165,349
876,966
1,288,383
389,498
2,856,320
1,920,304
777,723
1,142,581
850,457
528,088
355,034
143,789
211,245
7,647,521
2,502,197
6,622,794
4,452,504
1,803,264
2,649,240
1,306,963
7,818,028
5,256,060
2,128,704
3,127,356
1,225,176
7,924,806
5,327,847
2,157,778
3,170,069
1,171,305
7,953,677
5,347,257
2,165,639
3,181,618
1,209,458
7,915,524
5,321,606
2,155,251
3,166,356
1,067,213
7,826,226
5,261,572
2,130,936
3,130,635
679,967
4,986,427
3,352,375
1,357,712
1,994,663
439,708
3,224,527
2,167,849
877,979
1,289,870
415,863
3,049,663
2,050,288
830,367
1,219,922
262,440
1,924,559
1,293,881
524,022
769,859
1,093,856
410,141
275,738
111,674
164,064
4,344,696
4,832,321
3,248,769
1,315,751
1,933,018
1,469,816
9,480,184
6,373,527
2,581,279
3,792,249
1,407,490
9,542,510
6,415,430
2,598,249
3,817,181
1,373,694
9,606,306
6,458,320
2,615,619
3,842,700
1,347,656
9,602,344
6,455,656
2,614,541
3,841,115
1,280,613
8,970,461
6,030,841
2,442,491
3,588,350
907,291
6,653,468
4,473,127
1,811,616
2,661,510
825,022
6,050,160
4,067,522
1,647,347
2,420,176
559,430
296,756
199,509
80,801
118,708
13,480,865
233,794
157,180
63,658
93,522
2,504,299
11,594,021
7,794,660
3,156,837
4,637,823
2,365,028
9,475,298
6,370,243
2,579,948
3,790,294
1,610,100
9,369,900
6,299,384
2,551,250
3,748,133
1,650,463
9,299,537
6,252,078
2,532,092
3,719,987
1,332,416
8,918,659
5,996,014
2,428,386
3,567,629
907,291
6,653,468
4,473,127
1,811,616
2,661,510
825,022
6,050,160
4,067,522
1,647,347
2,420,176
559,430
296,756
199,509
80,801
118,708
Contractor
Cash Flow
Cum.Cash Flow
Net Op.Income
-Total Capital
Discount
Cash
Discounted
Cash Flow
Government
Share
1/(1+Disc. Rate)^Thn
Prod
DC x Contractor
Cash Flow
Equity to be Split
- Cont.Share
189,631
189,631
0.909
172,392
181,310
330,722
520,353
0.826
273,324
257,951
325,968
846,321
0.751
244,905
260,547
324,472
1,170,793
0.683
221,619
262,566
70,322
1,241,115
0.621
43,665
54,364
NPV
955,903
-334,346
-334,346
0.909
-303,951
257,216
-77,130
0.826
212,575
73,764
530,871
453,740
0.751
398,851
366,421
347,170
800,910
0.683
237,122
250,168
41,793
842,703
0.621
25,950
NPV
570,547
-637,001
-637,001
0.909
-579,092
318,501
-318,501
0.826
263,224
0
0
530,106
211,606
0.751
398,277
303,810
582,780
794,386
0.683
398,047
412,191
79,625
874,011
0.621
49,441
NPV
529,896
-41,238
-41,238
0.909
-37,489
293,665
1,348,079
1,306,841
0.826
1,114,115
776,915
130,725
1,437,566
0.751
98,216
107,092
NPV
1,174,842
1,000,096
1,000,096
0.909
909,178
842,975
1,291,795
2,291,890
0.826
1,067,599
1,048,780
1,289,022
3,580,913
0.751
968,462
1,050,299
1,290,877
4,871,790
0.683
881,687
1,054,092
1,286,352
6,158,142
0.621
798,723
1,051,749
1,287,104
7,445,246
0.564
726,537
1,051,342
1,284,856
8,730,102
0.513
659,334
1,052,570
1,288,373
10,018,476
0.467
601,036
1,055,451
1,284,853
11,303,329
0.424
544,903
1,052,567
1,284,859
12,588,188
0.386
495,369
1,052,572
1,284,856
13,873,044
0.350
450,334
1,052,570
1,288,373
15,161,417
0.319
410,515
1,055,451
1,284,856
16,446,274
0.290
372,177
1,052,570
1,279,857
17,726,131
0.263
337,026
1,048,474
971,383
18,697,514
0.239
232,541
795,769
639,000
19,336,514
0.218
139,065
523,476
435,325
19,771,839
0.198
86,127
356,624
78,757
19,850,596
0.180
14,165
64,519
NPV
9,694,778
-535,787
-535,787
0.909
-487,079
51,314
2,713,340
2,177,553
0.826
2,242,429
2,026,706
2,655,893
4,833,445
0.751
1,995,411
2,058,083
2,621,424
7,454,870
0.683
1,790,468
2,076,908
2,600,743
10,055,613
0.621
1,614,857
2,088,204
2,616,254
12,671,867
0.564
1,476,807
2,079,732
2,569,722
15,241,589
0.513
1,318,674
2,105,147
2,560,211
17,801,800
0.467
1,194,357
2,097,356
1,918,557
19,720,357
0.424
813,655
1,571,705
1,387,142
21,107,499
0.386
534,803
1,136,364
1,284,872
22,392,371
0.350
450,340
1,052,583
1,288,383
23,680,754
0.319
410,518
1,055,459
1,142,581
24,823,335
0.290
330,965
936,016
211,245
25,034,580
0.263
55,627
173,055
NPV
13,741,835
-883,182
-883,182
0.909
-802,893
3,002,513
2,119,331
0.826
2,481,416
2,170,290
3,339,320
5,458,651
0.751
2,508,880
2,561,968
3,297,247
8,755,898
0.683
2,252,064
2,596,959
3,257,925
12,013,823
0.621
2,022,915
2,606,420
3,280,816
15,294,639
0.564
1,851,935
2,593,917
3,130,635
18,425,274
0.513
1,606,511
2,564,654
1,994,663
20,419,937
0.467
930,525
1,634,052
1,289,870
21,709,807
0.424
547,031
1,056,677
1,219,922
22,929,729
0.386
470,333
999,375
769,859
23,699,588
0.350
269,831
630,678
164,064
23,863,652
0.319
52,276
134,403
NPV
14,190,824
1,543,477
1,543,477
0.909
1,403,161
1,583,551
3,948,065
5,491,542
0.826
3,262,864
3,106,656
3,910,670
9,402,212
0.751
2,938,145
3,127,081
3,898,794
13,301,006
0.683
2,662,929
3,147,987
3,874,771
17,175,778
0.621
2,405,928
3,146,688
3,638,835
20,814,613
0.564
2,054,027
2,939,620
2,661,510
23,476,123
0.513
1,365,776
2,180,342
2,420,176
25,896,299
0.467
1,129,030
1,982,637
118,708
26,015,007
0.424
50,344
97,247
NPV
17,272,203
-2,070,000
-2,070,000
0.909
-1,881,818
132,270
-1,937,730
0.826
109,314
76,614
5,450,324
3,512,594
0.751
4,094,909
3,799,361
4,277,795
7,790,388
0.683
2,921,792
3,105,055
4,040,634
11,831,022
0.621
2,508,916
3,070,516
4,056,450
15,887,472
0.564
2,289,760
3,047,458
3,669,916
19,557,388
0.513
1,883,247
2,922,644
2,661,510
22,218,898
0.467
1,241,614
2,180,342
2,420,176
24,639,074
0.424
1,026,391
1,982,637
118,708
24,757,782
0.386
45,767
97,247
NPV
14,239,891
Government
Take
Govern.Share
+ Cont. Tax
Cum. Cash Flow

472,278 NPV
477,032 PIR
331,957
$1,241,115
$955,903
2.515826801
480,728
99,534
Cum. Cash Flow

NPV
670,875 ROR
458,030 POT
0 PIR
$842,703
$570,547
91%
2.145
0.170
Cum. Cash Flow

NPV
556,241 ROR
754,674 POT
0 PIR
$874,011
$529,896
50%
2.60
0.084
Cum. Cash Flow

NPV
196,073 ROR
POT
PIR
$1,437,566
$1,174,842
3179%
1.03
0.30
135,053
0
0
537,668
1,422,443
1,543,391
1,920,197
1,922,978
1,929,923
1,925,632
1,924,888
1,927,136
1,932,411
1,927,131
1,927,141
1,927,136
1,932,411
1,927,136
1,919,638
Cum. Cash Flow
$19,850,596
1,456,963
958,425
NPV
PIR
$9,694,778
25.73
652,938
118,126
93,950
3,710,668
3,768,115
3,802,584
3,823,265
3,807,754
3,854,286
3,840,020
2,877,613
Cum. Cash Flow

NPV
1,932,425 ROR
1,713,739 POT
316,843 PIR
2,080,553
1,927,160
$25,034,580
$13,741,835
504%
1.20
2.11
0
3,973,554
4,690,672
4,754,737
4,772,059
4,749,168
4,695,591
Cum. Cash Flow

NPV
1,829,741 ROR
1,154,700 POT
246,077 PIR
2,991,764
1,934,656
$23,863,652
$14,190,824
348%
1.29
1.48
2,899,303
5,687,935
5,725,330
5,763,606
Cum. Cash Flow

NPV
3,991,958 PIR
5,761,229
5,382,111
3,629,984
178,048
0
140,272
6,956,198
5,685,003
5,621,766
5,579,550
$26,015,007
$17,272,203
4.223
Cum. Cash Flow

NPV
3,629,984 ROR
178,048 POT
PIR
5,351,030
3,991,958
$24,757,782
$14,239,891
112%
1.355525698
0.963474105
Sensitivity Production
80% 10,429,996
90% 12,331,430
100% 14,239,891
110% 16,177,597
120% 18,115,304
NPV (US$)
Price
9,911,422
12,072,144
14,239,891
16,441,830
18,643,769
Cost
14,768,356
14,504,124
14,239,891
13,975,658
13,714,292
Investasi
15,267,326
14,753,608
14,239,891
13,754,717
13,276,568
80%
88%
90%
100%
100%
112%
110%
129%
120%
146%
ROR (%)
Price
84%
98%
112%
131%
151%
Cost
117%
115%
112%
110%
108%
Investasi
155%
131%
112%
101%
92%
80%
1.56
90%
1.44
100%
1.35
110%
1.24
120%
1.15
POT (Tahun)
Price
1.61
1.46
1.35
1.23
1.13
Cost
1.32
1.34
1.35
1.37
1.38
Investasi
1.11
1.24
1.35
1.44
1.52
80%
0.70
90%
0.83
100%
0.96
110%
1.09
120%
1.23
PIR
Price
0.67
0.82
0.96
1.11
1.26
Cost
0.99
0.98
0.96
0.94
0.93
Investasi
1.23
1.11
0.96
0.85
0.75
Analisa Sensitivitas NPV

20,000,000
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
NPV
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
Sensitivity Factor
Production
Price
Cost
Investasi
130%
140%
Analisa Sensitivitas POT

1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
POT
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
0.8
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sensitivity factor
Production
Price
Cost
Investasi
110%
120%
130%
Analisa Sensitivitas ROR

180%
160%
140%
ROR
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
Sensitivity Factor
Production
Price
Cost
Investasi
130%
140%
Analisa sensitivitas PIR

1.40
1.20
1.00
PIR
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Sensitivity Factor
Production
Price
Cost
Investasi
120%
130%
140%

Keeko Nomi An

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double declining balance

Gross Revenue x FTP

Total Cost + Non Capital

Gross Revenue Recovery

Contractor Share Contractor Tax

Cum. Cash Flow

Cum. Cash Flow

Cum. Cash Flow

Cum. Cash Flow

Cum. Cash Flow

Cum. Cash Flow

Cum. Cash Flow

Cum. Cash Flow

Cum. Cash Flow

Analisa Sensitivitas NPV

Analisa Sensitivitas POT

Analisa Sensitivitas ROR

Analisa sensitivitas PIR

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