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CHRISTINE
DALZIEL
19 SEPlT:'v1BER 2014
;\HIOlUI~
PLEASE SEE ENCLOSED COVER LETTER AND STATEMENT
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1 INTRODUCTION
2 RESPONSE TO QUESTION
2.1 We have divided this response into sections, responding specifically to the
points raised in Section 4. We have responded to these points in turn below.
2.3 We need to whether the 'no approach proposed by
Aberdeenshire Council is effective, and if not, what would be a better way to
address the problem.
2.4 The paragraph above examines the background to this consultation and cites
two key policy developments as supporting the 'no change' response from
Aberdeenshire CounciL We wiii examine in detail, but firstly will
context
at 30,000 (for a while the Scottish Government had a target of 35,000 homes
per annum) that means that there has been a total shortfall since year 2000 of
nearly 150,000 homes not built in Scotland. Since the financial crisis the
annual shortfall has risen from 10,000 per annum to nearer 15,000 per annum.
[Information sourced from Scottish Government Website:
2.6 With like these it is little wonder that housing professionals describe the
issue as a 1 housing crisis'. This is a crisis which is manifested in market
reactions such as the rapid growth of the private rented sector, worsening
affordability and increasing land prices. These price/cost issues are monitored
through the average earnings to average price ratios. Before the 1980s the long
term average of house prices to earnings ratio was running consistently at 3.5.
Today we've reached a point where house prices are 7.5 times average
incomes. This so called housing crisis is therefore manifested as a ticking time
bomb. In other words we are storing up problems for the future. The planning
system should therefore be well placed to provide solutions looking to the
future.
2.
2.9 Against trends there have been two Scotland wide Think Tanks which
have examined the problem in detail. Firstly in May 2014, the Land Reform
Review Group [LRRG] reported on its remit from the Scottish Government.
This meant that it looked at urban land and housing as well as rural land. Then
in july 2014, the RICS Scottish Housing Commission published a report
covering similar territory. It would be fair to characterise the findings of both
of these Think Tanks as the and reform is urgently
required.
2.10 The LRRG suggests "there was a significant degree of consensus around the
nature of the land aspect of housing development. It was generally seen as a
three dimensional problem: accessing land (how land is made or becomes
available for housing)/ the price of land for housing development· and the
operation of the planning system (which tends to work in a reactive manne0
rather than perform a more proactive/ enabling role). It was pointed out that it is
how these three aspects of land supply interact together which creates the land
supply problem for new housebuilding." The LRRG recommends significant
overhaul of the delivery mechanisms for housing especially relating to the
land supply.
2.12 So the advice from Think Tanks and now policy from Government has been to
the effect that 'We have a problem. We to solve it'.
2.13 The response from Aberdeenshire Council to this additional SPP Consultation
can be characterised as:-
2.17 In this context, to claim that the ten sites need to be protected from competition
is misguided. If you factor-in the issues surrounding the last ten years' shortfall
then the argument becomes nave. There is nothing anywhere in planning
legislation which suggests market positions should be protected. Clearly more
competition will impact on prices, but in a context of affordable housing
difficulties this is exactly the prescription which should be followed. Moreover,
it is difficult to see how using the planning system to protect sites from
competition complies with legislation concerning fair competition. In effect,
the planning authority is being asked to protect a monopolistic circumstance.
pointing out that when such a
the numbers are rolled-forward
2.19 The reaction of planning authorities to such a shortfall is simply to increase the
overall allocation by an equivalent amount, in a simple linear mathematical
fashion without thinking of the dynamic of the housing market. As an example,
it is likely that the shortfall across the plan period in one of the SGA Areas in
Aberdeenshire could be in region of 750 houses set against an allocation of
2,200. The reaction of saying //we will zone an additional site of 750 units"
misses the point that this site will only supply 100, perhaps 150 units per
annum. In terms of the shortfalls, several sites of that size are required to
compensate, each producing 100 units per annum. Only in this manner will
the requirements be adequately met, the shortfalls caught-up and affordability
tackled; more sites in marketable areas. Supply is key to solving the 'housing
crisis' both locally and nationally
2.20 So in terms of the first rationale for the "no change" position on the Shire LOP,
Aberdeenshire Council has scant justification for following this line. Moreover,
the Council should be helping to overcome one of the key risks to our
economic future in the north east, namely the absence of houses for workers.
We are aware that economic investment choices are being made by companies
on the of difficulties recruiting, securing and retaining staff. They are
choosing to in housing shortages in
2.22
2.28 One of the reasons that 'shortfall' is being focussed upon in greater detail is that
it more adequately shows past performance. In reality it is relatively
straightforward to zone sites; to add sites; or to put red lines around sites. It is
self-evident that this can be done since both City and Shire have done so.
However, it is far more difficult to make these sites deliver or deliver at a rate
which is consummate with the targets set out in the SOP.
2.29 It may well be possible to demonstrate a 5 year land supply. We have heard
justifications from officials that the present supply is a 6 years, even 7 years
supply. This takes no account of the consistent shortfalls which have transpired,
in spite of being a 5 year land supply. This doesn't happen south of the
border because shortfalls get counted and are rolled forward to the next LDP
period.
2.31 Ultimately:-
2.32 The principles here are clearly about constraint and the housing market is
founded on that premise. Land is rationed. Land is held back. Supply is for 5
years. A new supply comes with next plan (though aficionados
will be aware that it should years supply at ail times-
year
11
Scottish planning should deliver at a 700% increase in
supply of land development 2016/ and that all Local Authorities
should be to demonstrate a 10 year land supply as standard/~
2.35 The 5 year supply demonstrated in the HLA2014 may well result in a
considerable number of houses being built on paper. However, it will not be at
anything like the rate at which it is required to meet needs.
2.36 In the context of what we have stated already - it is little wonder that the
Government sought planning to examine 'deliverability'
2.39 We would argue that the way this should be demonstrated needs to be at the
macro level and at a site-by-site level. For a 1,000 unit site we would expect
the planning authority to be realistically assessing how many units that should
be producing over time and if it fails to meet these requirements, assess why
and come-up with prescriptions to assist/resolve any issues. In our view this is
little more than what is done in the existing HLA2014 exercise- it is just an
additional layer of analysis. The prescriptions could include assistance with
infrastructure issues. Equally it could be a istic reassessment of what a site
then adjustment to the wider land supply
. . . . . ·· ~· .·- -. . . .-#. . .. .~,...,........, . . ..., ,. . . ,
'•'.lv. · ....r"'Y.-1·:~
wh(lt this exerci'ie is abou t. It i:; about t>n~ur i n g that what was promised in tlw
Plan will rr.:~mpire, bllt if i! doesn't tht~H! ·will be good fall back mechani sms.
2.4 1 In t.h•? light oi current indicators we woulo sugg(~st that trw only option would
be to 1om~ additional sites so thdr the annual Oltt turns from those site5 !cJok
capablE> of d(>.l iv<:!rir1g the SDP t<.)rgels.
3 CON ClUSION
n~al
Table 1
. A;;i-llorityf:008~
· . 2~ 2010 . G" 2012 ]2~1-J-l
_ ____,_ _____________. ;. . . · ···--·-·-.I ._
~08~-- 1_,_0~7 -rl-~- -:
·· ..;. _·;____ - · •··-·-·
k~~~~.,·~:.n. -:e_ _ __ ~~
Areas (HLAs) . .. .
. --..····--·----1
~-Aberdeen City
-'520n _ --_!.:_J87475-- ['_,.:._t__(,__
! 293
- _1
I 522
.
777 890 :
r:y- --·-·-- ---·[- · .. - ···-- I -- --r-·---'- L- --
[ ... ~-~-~---·-· .. ··-··-·------ ·-·~~ 693 -··· L..!:S..~~--- . L.~.:?-~~-- . . L~. :..~02----! 1, ~~---·---1.~ 0 ~-~---·-] I
l'a.ble 2
rT-e;;--·- ---·ve~-2oo8 ·-~'2oo9-- -- ·2o·1o~ ~-T20.1____ 2o 12
! Completion-, ~: 1
--l 2o 13··-· -l
I
' uthority
I
( ot I !
I
; Covl) 1
SO P HN DA-~
l__~
l Q2 Q3
Q4 2013 i
~---· 11: - : ll ; 1 :~
! .2.16 f 575 980 1,250 ____ _1,095 I
1~:
I .. ·--
i Sh1re 1 264 , 2:}.3 350 1,064 1, 311 ., ,250 1.095