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CHRISTINE

DALZIEL

19 SEPlT:'v1BER 2014

Hr\U IDJ\Y FRASfR MUNRO, CARDEN CHU~CH, 6 C:\RDEN PLACE, t\!:JtRDtE\l

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HALl!DAY fRASER MUNRO t~<:.\':O~S f-! .... ~: .


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PLANNtNC -\ E;~)!L'

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ABEROHNSHl RE lOCAL IJt vtlO PMENT PlAN 2016 ~ RESPONSE TO


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Ml,lN ISSUES REPORT AOOfN OUM (H... 'l l j ; ! • •• :
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KM034 Kioduny Village
Ki nduny Development Tru5t
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P!e<:lSt! Lnd f:·n<: h,:.ed :~~sp •.;n<;~~ w ;hi.: U.>i.:,\1 Ol~veloprnt-! lt P!an !<vlain Js.;·ue::: ~·{~r.r;IH( !'.,

Report Uti!Rj A.dd ~nd u rn ill rt"~St:l~~r! oi t.he above d(;~velopm~~ni bid. It .':H.-'•'I.'H.·~· :. i·•l.·\:>.tH I• ,
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GJMffH'~nts on iVl..<!ifl h~uc~ -4 ; Land Supply dlid ()istrlbution.


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'vVe :1ot<: 1.he vpda t·e.~ wquirt:rnent thmut~h Scottish Pbnning P()rlcy fur t oe-a!
Devek:pmePt Pi;m:; !o Jlkx:a!e ,:; iie~ for development that ~are effer.:cive or
expea erl rn b<?ccme effe~:tive ill th{l p:an period" and ful !y endorse this.

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~rhis broV'tilfi(~!d :;ire is cr.·;n{~C :md op~rJted by CH AP Grol:p frnember:; c f the


l<indun~1 r:us~;, v"hid1 r•.•;w)\';':; ~he d<~! ay-s as:!.-OC:a~ed with !and :Jea!s and
ensu r e.~ tht.: finan<:e is ava !) «b!~" from d-:.Ir (,ne \o d~.· l ; ,;er the r.:•q:.~:,ed
infra::tn1cture. H;:d thi-; sHe bt::en identitii:~d in r.h~ 2.t''l ~ !.DP, constn.s~·t(m
~V<:ll.sfd have h('i7fl wPH <Jndf:i'\vay and "' ra~1ge- of hnusi ng ~e-n ure:; wouid ~"we
be~::n av.1i h'l.ble.

:·h~ !\md uny Tru~;t includes (}-il".P fk~n·K'S; ;::•r;~;f neers J f! (j !>;Jstain.abihl.y
expe11:,;; ~mnr:gsi oth2rs. Se·..:enl mchnicai a::, -;,::.ssm,~rl~ ~; h ;~ve l:a:•~n undertakf.rl
•v~th r~:g;;.~rd to !he lf:vels. •::rectio~l of a new bidg<J, e(c,logk;,~l .:.:.·;,r;·~smF.nt-.;,
flt.:..oc!:ng aild dr<\inage. Thf:•t'e dn~ :10 n.:dmi~..:·~~ ! COl1!:>Wtirl!:; to devc!or;ing thi~
:·;ite for ~~ S(•!f o:>ntain~:d v~ll~ge, which c.;1n a.!so h·~r\•:!fit 1JH~ wider c:;re'~ :n t•:'rm~
oi :.r:Hvtc~.~ ;uv:i f;.te t!ilie:;.

Aberdeen~.h i re Coundl h.::ve tdentified shrougi1 d-.~tr r-..-I!R th,lt lh(~:'e is an


aiinrdability crisis affPctng :h:: o~~esidt~ Cnr•·;.-.kr. D·~spi:.~ this. no ne·.v
a r lm::atiOi"~S h:-1 v~~ been H.!t:oni tn~nded, wHd1 ..._,ill :-;imp!y r~xao::rbate t~,,~
pr:1blem. K!nck:ny Vi11age w1H p!cv:oe rnrd:t~t <.ho!c;.~ in t!--.r~ arE-!,1 cirld f.?n~\.lrc
• that the CH r e1~t tn~nd of ~-x~~~s1ve c.nd eHri5t h:1u:>ing in Hh: area i s tempered.

Havi 11g r._::gard to the for~~oi ng, there C!re no c.c.n:>tr.i!ints to the dev~lopment nf
hou:.in~~ at Kinduny Village Js proposed thrm;gh the origin,'l.l development hid
refen':nce KMO J4. Sit~ I<M034 would i1elp .-H:1d res~ the <Kutc demand for both
m;:\rk~ t ;-md ;~ffo rd01bi t:' housing in trw area. l(in<.iuny Village pr~v i dcs the
opporttmily to dd iver a lrt1fy su':;t.dnJbl,:., high quali ~y dt'V~~!oprnent on ;-J larf.e
b;-owrf:c:::ld Sill; , It !S imrm.:>di<~t\..~!y dei!'/~~;;;b1t> <md Wt!l COntribuU: i:i f itngf! o{
housing stock to <.m •m~a of rlgh di-~rnand from day 0'1i.'~.

t/./t~ 'tf-lOUld ri~~ ;::t(!Cth.:~ !y rt.~qL:l~~,·~~ th:~~t th(l propo~;::~d d'~v ~~ (<)prnt1flt. btr! ar~)~·t ;;!t
~:J n cl •sn~' bt.~·;uppQnr-:d ''-~ !'ult.'"~ r~5id~i"Hia! d·:~vr:ll :•pl-nt::n t j'fl loc .:tti') n !n ti~>:
forthO.Ji'!'dl!-g Pm;)o~,ed A.berck;enshi!··· Lot.:!! Dr!Vf:h:lf..ln'('f\1. Fl:~n fr.•r r~~~tdet~tl;::t
. dev·.::.k\pli''if:'nt.

:~hould you h;.r·if.~ ~.~n·;.~, ·.:1 u~.: f~s o:.., L~~r. c·~t~:)~-''·~ :' t·.::nt: ~'-'';':~c~,. c~r ~~::lq(.,) ~ =-~· ~f'·'l ft~rth·"':':•·
:r~{,·. tr·fr~a.~~ c r,, tf ·~:.Y: r~ ~r.',:?.~~:.:~ de~ nc~t hes~r;~;.~.l~ tc~ ·~f,r~~ :a-:· ~ n4· ~~· .

-O~titil.ill'.~ 0-.di'.i-1."~
ff':·t i;)s- Ph;.,.•'t'l~r.:~~ {:~u:r,t;l.t...mi
H ;11f h1 ::) f v-.·!:;.,·r !'-A.n~h' ('
1 INTRODUCTION

This statement been prepared by Halliday Fraser Munro Planning on behalf


of the Kincluny Development Trust in response to Question 3 set out in the
Main Issues Report Addendum, published in August 2014.

2 RESPONSE TO QUESTION

2.1 We have divided this response into sections, responding specifically to the
points raised in Section 4. We have responded to these points in turn below.
2.3 We need to whether the 'no approach proposed by
Aberdeenshire Council is effective, and if not, what would be a better way to
address the problem.

2.4 The paragraph above examines the background to this consultation and cites
two key policy developments as supporting the 'no change' response from
Aberdeenshire CounciL We wiii examine in detail, but firstly will
context
at 30,000 (for a while the Scottish Government had a target of 35,000 homes
per annum) that means that there has been a total shortfall since year 2000 of
nearly 150,000 homes not built in Scotland. Since the financial crisis the
annual shortfall has risen from 10,000 per annum to nearer 15,000 per annum.
[Information sourced from Scottish Government Website:

2.6 With like these it is little wonder that housing professionals describe the
issue as a 1 housing crisis'. This is a crisis which is manifested in market
reactions such as the rapid growth of the private rented sector, worsening
affordability and increasing land prices. These price/cost issues are monitored
through the average earnings to average price ratios. Before the 1980s the long
term average of house prices to earnings ratio was running consistently at 3.5.
Today we've reached a point where house prices are 7.5 times average
incomes. This so called housing crisis is therefore manifested as a ticking time
bomb. In other words we are storing up problems for the future. The planning
system should therefore be well placed to provide solutions looking to the
future.

2.
2.9 Against trends there have been two Scotland wide Think Tanks which
have examined the problem in detail. Firstly in May 2014, the Land Reform
Review Group [LRRG] reported on its remit from the Scottish Government.
This meant that it looked at urban land and housing as well as rural land. Then
in july 2014, the RICS Scottish Housing Commission published a report
covering similar territory. It would be fair to characterise the findings of both
of these Think Tanks as the and reform is urgently
required.

2.10 The LRRG suggests "there was a significant degree of consensus around the
nature of the land aspect of housing development. It was generally seen as a
three dimensional problem: accessing land (how land is made or becomes
available for housing)/ the price of land for housing development· and the
operation of the planning system (which tends to work in a reactive manne0
rather than perform a more proactive/ enabling role). It was pointed out that it is
how these three aspects of land supply interact together which creates the land
supply problem for new housebuilding." The LRRG recommends significant
overhaul of the delivery mechanisms for housing especially relating to the
land supply.

2.11 The RICS Housing Commission supports the LRRG


unaffordability and price inflation. Institute of Public Policy Research
(IPPR) have concluded that has been an under-production of 100,000
homes in Scotland over the last and HFS argue/ following an analysis of
Scotland/s mainland local provision of land suppl~ that
the number of required sites that for the next years is already 55,000 units
short. the Scottish Government and local authorities must be bold
and demonstrate leadership in this key area by accelerating credible
land supply to match the of Scotland/s housing challenges of today and
tomorrow. Note the reference to undersupply- in other words 'shortfall'.

2.12 So the advice from Think Tanks and now policy from Government has been to
the effect that 'We have a problem. We to solve it'.

2.13 The response from Aberdeenshire Council to this additional SPP Consultation
can be characterised as:-

We zoned enough housing in 2012 and we need to protect those sites


already zoned from further competition;
There has no to the Strategic Development Plan with which
to comply so we don't have to do anything more; and
Is a severe
in terms
2.16 However, in reality the effectiveness of any sizeable site is limited by the
number of homes it can realistically sell into that local market in any one year.
The Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire Housing land Audit evidences this truism. If
you examine the largest sites allocated in the Aberdeen Housing Market Area
there are ten sites over 1000 units with the largest, Grand holm, being 7000
units. Figures 1-4 (below) show that- even going by the figures reported by the
developers of these sites they will only contribute at 50% of expectation (half
the number required in any one year and twice the time to develop). Given
there are 22,000 homes zoned in these ten sites alone, there is a consequential
& significant risk to housing delivery.

2.17 In this context, to claim that the ten sites need to be protected from competition
is misguided. If you factor-in the issues surrounding the last ten years' shortfall
then the argument becomes nave. There is nothing anywhere in planning
legislation which suggests market positions should be protected. Clearly more
competition will impact on prices, but in a context of affordable housing
difficulties this is exactly the prescription which should be followed. Moreover,
it is difficult to see how using the planning system to protect sites from
competition complies with legislation concerning fair competition. In effect,
the planning authority is being asked to protect a monopolistic circumstance.
pointing out that when such a
the numbers are rolled-forward
2.19 The reaction of planning authorities to such a shortfall is simply to increase the
overall allocation by an equivalent amount, in a simple linear mathematical
fashion without thinking of the dynamic of the housing market. As an example,
it is likely that the shortfall across the plan period in one of the SGA Areas in
Aberdeenshire could be in region of 750 houses set against an allocation of
2,200. The reaction of saying //we will zone an additional site of 750 units"
misses the point that this site will only supply 100, perhaps 150 units per
annum. In terms of the shortfalls, several sites of that size are required to
compensate, each producing 100 units per annum. Only in this manner will
the requirements be adequately met, the shortfalls caught-up and affordability
tackled; more sites in marketable areas. Supply is key to solving the 'housing
crisis' both locally and nationally

2.20 So in terms of the first rationale for the "no change" position on the Shire LOP,
Aberdeenshire Council has scant justification for following this line. Moreover,
the Council should be helping to overcome one of the key risks to our
economic future in the north east, namely the absence of houses for workers.
We are aware that economic investment choices are being made by companies
on the of difficulties recruiting, securing and retaining staff. They are
choosing to in housing shortages in
2.22

with passenger pay loads


and restrictions on number of additional flights that Aberdeen Airport
can accommodate;
the pressures from the explosion in construction projects round the City
such as PrimeFour, the Core, Gateway, City South;
the pressures from Oil & Gas and Renewable sector accommodation
requirements;
the withdrawal of University Accommodation from non, term-time letting;
2.24 The Action Plan is a monitoring exercise where potential blockages (mostly
infrastructure) are identified. This is a great improvement in terms of assessing
and monitoring deliverability information. However, the information relating to
utilities in particular is scant and not publicly available in a manner that would
assist with planning and deliverability. Too much is now hidden beneath
commercial confidentiality to enable sensible, public interest driven
coordination of infrastructure delivery. The real test of the Action Plan is
whether it has resulted in any substantial additional investment in the key
infrastructures required to deliver additional housing.
2.27 As we have stated above there are national and local indicators (many
which are within the HLA2014) which are of great concern.

2.28 One of the reasons that 'shortfall' is being focussed upon in greater detail is that
it more adequately shows past performance. In reality it is relatively
straightforward to zone sites; to add sites; or to put red lines around sites. It is
self-evident that this can be done since both City and Shire have done so.
However, it is far more difficult to make these sites deliver or deliver at a rate
which is consummate with the targets set out in the SOP.
2.29 It may well be possible to demonstrate a 5 year land supply. We have heard
justifications from officials that the present supply is a 6 years, even 7 years
supply. This takes no account of the consistent shortfalls which have transpired,
in spite of being a 5 year land supply. This doesn't happen south of the
border because shortfalls get counted and are rolled forward to the next LDP
period.

2.30 In Scotland, in Aberdeenshire, what cannot be hidden is the underlying


dynamic it is absolutely one of constraint, and not supply.

2.31 Ultimately:-

You can't build houses without planning permission;


To get planning permission you have to be a site zoned in the plan;
The plan only zones enough sites to make up a 5 year land supply (with a
10-20% over supply now confirmed in the new SPP).

2.32 The principles here are clearly about constraint and the housing market is
founded on that premise. Land is rationed. Land is held back. Supply is for 5
years. A new supply comes with next plan (though aficionados
will be aware that it should years supply at ail times-
year

11
Scottish planning should deliver at a 700% increase in
supply of land development 2016/ and that all Local Authorities
should be to demonstrate a 10 year land supply as standard/~

2.35 The 5 year supply demonstrated in the HLA2014 may well result in a
considerable number of houses being built on paper. However, it will not be at
anything like the rate at which it is required to meet needs.

2.36 In the context of what we have stated already - it is little wonder that the
Government sought planning to examine 'deliverability'
2.39 We would argue that the way this should be demonstrated needs to be at the
macro level and at a site-by-site level. For a 1,000 unit site we would expect
the planning authority to be realistically assessing how many units that should
be producing over time and if it fails to meet these requirements, assess why
and come-up with prescriptions to assist/resolve any issues. In our view this is
little more than what is done in the existing HLA2014 exercise- it is just an
additional layer of analysis. The prescriptions could include assistance with
infrastructure issues. Equally it could be a istic reassessment of what a site
then adjustment to the wider land supply
. . . . . ·· ~· .·- -. . . .-#. . .. .~,...,........, . . ..., ,. . . ,

'•'.lv. · ....r"'Y.-1·:~

wh(lt this exerci'ie is abou t. It i:; about t>n~ur i n g that what was promised in tlw
Plan will rr.:~mpire, bllt if i! doesn't tht~H! ·will be good fall back mechani sms.

2.4 1 In t.h•? light oi current indicators we woulo sugg(~st that trw only option would
be to 1om~ additional sites so thdr the annual Oltt turns from those site5 !cJok
capablE> of d(>.l iv<:!rir1g the SDP t<.)rgels.

3 CON ClUSION

.i. 1 In conclusion, w e consider the current ''no chJngP~ asses~men t as supt~riic i a l. It


is not Jdequat(~ for the reasons we h<1ve Px~lain ed and the ~v idence wf' have
subm itted supports this position. Wt~ maintain that additional sites are r~~quired
to be zonN:l vvhich can assist in the doubling of housing output in the short
tP.rm .

n~al
Table 1
. A;;i-llorityf:008~
· . 2~ 2010 . G" 2012 ]2~1-J-l
_ ____,_ _____________. ;. . . · ···--·-·-.I ._
~08~-- 1_,_0~7 -rl-~- -:
·· ..;. _·;____ - · •··-·-·
k~~~~.,·~:.n. -:e_ _ __ ~~
Areas (HLAs) . .. .
. --..····--·----1
~-Aberdeen City
-'520n _ --_!.:_J87475-- ['_,.:._t__(,__
! 293
- _1
I 522
.
777 890 :
r:y- --·-·-- ---·[- · .. - ···-- I -- --r-·---'- L- --
[ ... ~-~-~---·-· .. ··-··-·------ ·-·~~ 693 -··· L..!:S..~~--- . L.~.:?-~~-- . . L~. :..~02----! 1, ~~---·---1.~ 0 ~-~---·-] I

l'a.ble 2
rT-e;;--·- ---·ve~-2oo8 ·-~'2oo9-- -- ·2o·1o~ ~-T20.1____ 2o 12
! Completion-, ~: 1
--l 2o 13··-· -l
I
' uthority
I
( ot I !
I

; Covl) 1

: Abt~n:f~t(~~· · t... :~ y · .'.. ~ <) (, ~.)~~ 1'J ' ! :.;,.'S ~


iJ!.14 i'!94
:--;-- -:· - - - ....... -···t-·~-<·- .... ··-+-:- ;..· . · -j···;,--·~ -·; ·- .--;·: . ..: [ 1

----~-~'&- .. ; ~~ - .I··:;-··-_,.; -···-!


L-~-~?:·~:________ _. _. _- ·--·L 1' .~ ~-·' ···-'- ~-~- : ~~ ____ .:.':: .~:-~ ____l.. _,._r~ ~-~ -·--L.::.~-~·J -·-- ...:.:~,-~?~~ .·---"

·.· .,., ...,..:.··. ·· .:-.;; ~


' '" 1, -r-,• NW,:W,, ,.-,, .:, lo"O.IJtN'. ( ..:..._.,.~"..(.. .._
... ., .-........ O(::.tt>

Table 3- AHMA ! RHMA Completions and HNDA


Year Built HNDA Shortfall J
2010 1,500 1,189 689 i
.... ····-···········-·- - · - - t -:-·-········· ······· ·· ----- - -- -···· ....... " · -- t-::- ..... ·l
t 2011
120!2
1 . 6~-~------ 2,1ts9
. l ,H6J 2, 189
·····----..l-·)88
1}26
--i I

[2o~~;-;:~9__ -·- 2.1 89-=-~-t sso -1


1 To~~,603 ·-·· -···--J 8,756 ___ L~15~_=.==J

Table 4 - Housing Completions 2013 (Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire)


--=-T ·r i.lr 'YE~t-1_l_T d.rget
~--r~:J .,201
Targ(~tT'l
I
2
3 2013 i Total HLA
\::) '·

SO P HN DA-~
l__~
l Q2 Q3
Q4 2013 i

~---· 11: - : ll ; 1 :~
! .2.16 f 575 980 1,250 ____ _1,095 I
1~:
I .. ·--
i Sh1re 1 264 , 2:}.3 350 1,064 1, 311 ., ,250 1.095

r:::f==~: ==± . - -J-- -· 1,639


.
2,291 l 2,5-00 --=82..190 ;
......... ·-·· -··· .... ......... __
J. ._.:.._._.
Shortfall,
65 2 .
__ ...____ _ 1"""861'
---· _j __··-·-........
--~-......,
;>a j

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