Absolute

Period Demand Forecast Error Error

t Dt Ft Et At % Error
1 779
2 802
3 818
4 888 800 88 88 10%
5 898 836 62 62 7%
6 902 868 34 34 4%
7 916 896 20 20 2%
8 708 905 -197 197 28%
9 695 842 -147 147 21%
10 708 773 -65 65 9%
11 716 704 12 12 2%
12 784 706 78 78 10%
13 845 736 109 109 13%
14 739 782 -43 43 6%
15 871 789 82 82 9%
16 927 818 109 109 12%
17 1133 846 287 287 25%
18 1124 977 147 147 13%
19 1056 1,061 -5 5 1%
20 889 1,104 -215 215 24%
21 857 1,023 -166 166 19%
22 772 934 -162 162 21%
23 751 839 -88 88 12%
24 820 793 27 27 3%
25 857 781 76 76 9%
26 881 809 72 72 8%
27 937 853 84 84 9%
28 1159 892 267 267 23%
29 1072 992 80 80 7%
30 1246 1,056 190 190 15%
31 1198 1,159 39 39 3%
32 922 1,172 -250 250 27%
33 798 1,122 -324 324 41%
34 879 973 -94 94 11%
35 945 866 79 79 8%
36 990 874 116 116 12%
37 917 938 -21 21 2%
38 956 951 5 5 1%
39 1001 954 47 47 5%
40 1142 958 184 184 16%
41 1276 1,033 243 243 19%
42 1356 1,140 216 216 16%
43 1288 1,258 30 30 2%
44 1082 1,307 -225 225 21%
45 877 1,242 -365 365 42%
46 1009 1,082 -73 73 7%
47 1100 989 111 111 10%
48 998 995 3 3 0%
49 887 1,036 -149 149 17%
50 892 995 -103 103 12%
51 997 926 71 71 7%
52 1118 925 193 193 17%
53 1197 1,002 195 195 16%
54 1256 1,104 152 152 12%
55 1202 1,190 12 12 1%
56 1170 1,218 -48 48 4%
57 982 1,209 -227 227 23%
58 1297 1,118 179 179 14%
59 1163 1,150 13 13 1%
60 1053 1,147 -94 94 9%
Average error percentage for 3 month 12%
MAD= 119
 Absolute
Period t Demand Dt Forecast Ft Error Et Error At MAPEt
1 779 900 -121 121 16%
2 802 779 23 23 3%
3 818 802 16 16 2%
4 888 818 70 70 8%
5 898 888 10 10 1%
6 902 898 4 4 0%
7 916 902 14 14 2%
8 708 916 -208 208 29%
9 695 708 -13 13 2%
10 708 695 13 13 2%
11 716 708 8 8 1%
12 784 716 68 68 9%
13 845 784 61 61 7%
14 739 845 -106 106 14%
15 871 739 132 132 15%
16 927 871 56 56 6%
17 1133 927 206 206 18%
18 1124 1,133 -9 9 1%
19 1056 1,124 -68 68 6%
20 889 1,056 -167 167 19%
21 857 889 -32 32 4%
22 772 857 -85 85 11%
23 751 772 -21 21 3%
24 820 751 69 69 8%
25 857 820 37 37 4%
26 881 857 24 24 3%
27 937 881 56 56 6%
28 1159 937 222 222 19%
29 1072 1,159 -87 87 8%
30 1246 1,072 174 174 14%
31 1198 1,246 -48 48 4%
32 922 1,198 -276 276 30%
33 798 922 -124 124 16%
34 879 798 81 81 9%
35 945 879 66 66 7%
36 990 945 45 45 5%
37 917 990 -73 73 8%
38 956 917 39 39 4%
39 1001 956 45 45 4%
40 1142 1,001 141 141 12%
41 1276 1,142 134 134 11%
42 1356 1,276 80 80 6%
43 1288 1,356 -68 68 5%
44 1082 1,288 -206 206 19%
45 877 1,082 -205 205 23%
46 1009 877 132 132 13%
47 1100 1,009 91 91 8%
48 998 1,100 -102 102 10%
49 887 998 -111 111 13%
50 892 887 5 5 1%
51 997 892 105 105 11%
52 1118 997 121 121 11%
53 1197 1,118 79 79 7%
54 1256 1,197 59 59 5%
55 1202 1,256 -54 54 4%
56 1170 1,202 -32 32 3%
57 982 1,170 -188 188 19%
58 1297 982 315 315 24%
59 1163 1,297 -134 134 12%
60 1053 1,163 -110 110 10%
 initial alpha value 0.54
α 1

Average MAPE = 9%
MAD= 91
 Absolute
Period t Demand Dt Forecast Ft Trend Tt FITt Error Et Error At % Error
1 779 800 800 1,600 -821 821 105%
2 802 513 311 823 -21 21 3%
3 818 505 168 673 145 145 18%
4 888 556 115 671 217 217 24%
5 898 632 97 729 169 169 19%
6 902 691 80 771 131 131 15%
7 916 737 65 801 115 115 13%
8 708 777 54 830 -122 122 17%
9 695 734 10 744 -49 49 7%
10 708 717 -2 715 -7 7 1%
11 716 714 -2 712 4 4 1%
12 784 716 -1 715 69 69 9%
13 845 740 10 750 95 95 11%
14 739 773 21 794 -55 55 7%
15 871 754 3 757 114 114 13%
16 927 794 20 813 114 114 12%
17 1133 834 29 862 271 271 24%
18 1124 928 58 987 137 137 12%
19 1056 976 54 1,030 26 26 2%
20 889 985 34 1,019 -130 130 15%
21 857 940 -2 938 -81 81 9%
22 772 912 -14 898 -126 126 16%
23 751 868 -27 840 -89 89 12%
24 820 836 -29 807 13 13 2%
25 857 841 -14 827 30 30 4%
26 881 851 -3 848 33 33 4%
27 937 863 4 866 71 71 8%
28 1159 888 13 901 258 258 22%
29 1072 978 48 1,026 46 46 4%
30 1246 994 34 1,028 218 218 18%
31 1198 1,071 53 1,123 75 75 6%
32 922 1,097 41 1,137 -215 215 23%
33 798 1,021 -11 1,010 -212 212 27%
34 879 947 -40 907 -28 28 3%
35 945 937 -26 911 34 34 4%
36 990 949 -9 940 50 50 5%
37 917 967 3 969 -52 52 6%
38 956 948 -7 942 14 14 2%
39 1001 953 -1 952 49 49 5%
40 1142 970 7 977 165 165 14%
41 1276 1,028 30 1,058 218 218 17%
42 1356 1,104 51 1,155 201 201 15%
43 1288 1,175 60 1,234 54 54 4%
44 1082 1,194 41 1,235 -153 153 14%
45 877 1,140 -1 1,139 -262 262 30%
46 1009 1,048 -42 1,007 2 2 0%
47 1100 1,049 -23 1,027 73 73 7%
48 998 1,075 -1 1,074 -76 76 8%
49 887 1,048 -12 1,036 -149 149 17%
50 892 996 -30 966 -74 74 8%
51 997 970 -28 942 55 55 6%
52 1118 990 -7 983 135 135 12%
53 1197 1,037 18 1,054 143 143 12%
54 1256 1,087 32 1,119 137 137 11%
55 1202 1,135 39 1,174 28 28 2%
56 1170 1,145 26 1,171 -1 1 0%
57 982 1,144 14 1,159 -177 177 18%
58 1297 1,083 -20 1,063 234 234 18%
59 1163 1,165 26 1,191 -28 28 2%
60 1053 1,155 10 1,165 -112 112 11%
α 0.350
β 0.450

MAPE = 12%
MAD= 116
 Deseaso Reseaso
Average nalized nalized
of the Deseaso Forecast Forecast
Same Seasonal nalized ed ed Absolute
S.No. Year Month Demand Month Factor Demand Demand Demand Error At
1 2006 January 779 857 0.87900441 886 790 694 10.85%
2 2006 February 802 854 0.875927382 916 796 698 13.02%
3 2006 March 818 925 0.948545249 862 803 761 6.93%
4 2006 April 888 1,047 1.073677733 827 809 868 2.20%
5 2006 May 898 1,115 1.143833977 785 815 932 3.83%
6 2006 June 902 1,177 1.207015624 747 821 991 9.92%
7 2006 July 916 1,132 1.161065336 789 828 961 4.91%
8 2006 August 708 954 0.978700127 723 834 816 15.28%
9 2006 September 695 842 0.863414134 805 840 725 4.38%
10 2006 October 708 933 0.956955793 740 846 810 14.41%
11 2006 November 716 935 0.959007146 747 853 818 14.22%
12 2006 December 784 929 0.952853089 823 859 819 4.40%
13 2007 January 845 857 0.87900441 961 865 761 9.99%
14 2007 February 739 854 0.875927382 844 872 763 3.30%
15 2007 March 871 925 0.948545249 918 878 833 4.40%
16 2007 April 927 1,047 1.073677733 863 884 949 2.40%
17 2007 May 1133 1,115 1.143833977 991 890 1,018 10.11%
18 2007 June 1124 1,177 1.207015624 931 897 1,082 3.72%
19 2007 July 1056 1,132 1.161065336 910 903 1,048 0.73%
20 2007 August 889 954 0.978700127 908 909 890 0.09%
21 2007 September 857 842 0.863414134 993 915 790 7.77%
22 2007 October 772 933 0.956955793 807 922 882 14.25%
23 2007 November 751 935 0.959007146 783 928 890 18.50%
24 2007 December 820 929 0.952853089 861 934 890 8.56%
25 2008 January 857 857 0.87900441 975 940 827 3.54%
26 2008 February 881 854 0.875927382 1,006 947 829 5.87%
27 2008 March 937 925 0.948545249 988 953 904 3.52%
28 2008 April 1159 1,047 1.073677733 1,079 959 1,030 11.13%
29 2008 May 1072 1,115 1.143833977 937 966 1,104 3.03%
30 2008 June 1246 1,177 1.207015624 1,032 972 1,173 5.86%
31 2008 July 1198 1,132 1.161065336 1,032 978 1,136 5.21%
32 2008 August 922 954 0.978700127 942 984 963 4.49%
33 2008 September 798 842 0.863414134 924 991 855 7.18%
34 2008 October 879 933 0.956955793 919 997 954 8.53%
35 2008 November 945 935 0.959007146 985 1,003 962 1.80%
36 2008 December 990 929 0.952853089 1,039 1,009 962 2.84%
37 2009 January 917 857 0.87900441 1,043 1,016 893 2.64%
38 2009 February 956 854 0.875927382 1,091 1,022 895 6.36%
39 2009 March 1001 925 0.948545249 1,055 1,028 975 2.56%
40 2009 April 1142 1,047 1.073677733 1,064 1,035 1,111 2.74%
41 2009 May 1276 1,115 1.143833977 1,116 1,041 1,190 6.70%
42 2009 June 1356 1,177 1.207015624 1,123 1,047 1,264 6.80%
43 2009 July 1288 1,132 1.161065336 1,109 1,053 1,223 5.05%
44 2009 August 1082 954 0.978700127 1,106 1,060 1,037 4.16%
45 2009 September 877 842 0.863414134 1,016 1,066 920 4.93%
46 2009 October 1009 933 0.956955793 1,054 1,072 1,026 1.68%
47 2009 November 1100 935 0.959007146 1,147 1,078 1,034 5.98%
48 2009 December 998 929 0.952853089 1,047 1,085 1,034 3.56%
49 2010 January 887 857 0.87900441 1,009 1,091 959 8.11%
50 2010 February 892 854 0.875927382 1,018 1,097 961 7.74%
51 2010 March 997 925 0.948545249 1,051 1,103 1,047 4.98%
52 2010 April 1118 1,047 1.073677733 1,041 1,110 1,191 6.57%
53 2010 May 1197 1,115 1.143833977 1,046 1,116 1,277 6.64%
54 2010 June 1256 1,177 1.207015624 1,041 1,122 1,355 7.85%
55 2010 July 1202 1,132 1.161065336 1,035 1,129 1,310 9.01%
56 2010 August 1170 954 0.978700127 1,195 1,135 1,111 5.08%
57 2010 September 982 842 0.863414134 1,137 1,141 985 0.33%
58 2010 October 1297 933 0.956955793 1,355 1,147 1,098 15.35%
59 2010 November 1163 935 0.959007146 1,213 1,154 1,106 4.88%
60 2010 December 1053 929 0.952853089 1,105 1,160 1,105 4.95%
0
MAD
84.519242981
104.46048909
56.686715088 D
19.524715865
34.392127674 1600
89.459343554
1400
44.992073184
1200
108.1857648
30.454568639 1000

102.04747341 800
101.79445058 600
34.518542432
400
84.409720413
200
24.41761158
38.347057595 0
0 10 20
22.226098866
114.58063829
41.761559411 overall average: 975
7.6847301438 MAD= 61.23372
0.7933569071
66.608446415 Regression
110.0196841 A 783.8091
138.92094253 B 6.267462
70.182190584 SUMMARY OUTPUT
30.300197844 Average value of absolute error 6.43%
51.704287751 Regression Statistics
33.007400102 Multiple R 0.833934
129.0230864 R Square 0.695446
32.446595746 Adjusted R 0.690196
72.982462376 Standard Er 73.05562
62.361533472 Observatio 60
41.400949013
57.32853853 ANOVA
74.991894783 df
17.047434481 Regression 1
28.154161264 Residual 58
24.190675275 Total 59
60.826187082
25.667742609 Coefficients
31.272271671 Intercept 783.8091
85.526170219 X Variable 6.267462
92.203365342
65.0383368
44.99145888
43.265523476
16.964105467
65.826073568
35.509486888
71.918847293
69.051913588
49.671914884
73.478543061
79.501063817
98.575731693
108.28485987
59.383866774
3.2025084214
199.06368385
56.699581617
52.17313504
 Data Visualization

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

SS MS F Significance F
706863.1 706863.1 132.4427 1.319E-16
309553.2 5337.124
1016416

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
19.10116 41.03464 1.498E-44 745.5739 822.0442 745.5739 822.0442
0.5446 11.50838 1.319E-16 5.177327 7.357598 5.177327 7.357598
 Forecasting Method MAD MAPE(%)
three-period moving average 119 12%
Simple exponential smoothing 91 9%
Holt's model 116 12%
Regression 61.23 6.43%

Analysis:
Off the forecasting methods, regression method gave the least MAPE with 6.43%.