Pronóstico de la Demanda - Método Estático

Año Periodo Demanda Demanda Desestacionalizada Dt St

2019 1 55,220 39,345 1.403488
2019 2 57,350 39,544 1.450295
2019 3 15,445 39,743 0.388627
2019 4 27,776 39,941 0.695419
2019 5 21,408 40,140 0.533331
2019 6 17,118 40,339 0.424353
2019 7 18,028 37,523 40,538 0.44472
2019 8 19,883 37,166 40,737 0.488085
2019 9 15,796 38,791 40,936 0.385875
2019 10 53,665 40,769 41,134 1.304626
2019 11 83,269 42,153 41,333 2.014577
2019 12 72,991 42,618 41,532 1.757461
2020 13 39,875 43,466 41,731 0.955527
2020 14 64,128 45,709 41,930 1.529415
2020 15 47,653 47,082 42,129 1.131132
2020 16 43,050 46,832 42,327 1.017071
2020 17 39,359 44,767 42,526 0.925522
2020 18 10,317 41,917 42,725 0.241474
2020 19 45,194 40,299 42,924 1.052885
2020 20 46,530 38,915 43,123 1.079012
2020 21 22,105 36,908 43,322 0.510253
2020 22 41,350 36,309 43,520 0.950127
2020 23 46,024 36,338 43,719 1.052715
2020 24 41,856 36,930 43,918 0.953045
2021 25 32,180 38,447 44,117 0.729424
2021 26 38,600 38,399 44,316 0.87102
2021 27 25,020 38,812 44,515 0.562062
2021 28 51,300 41,239 44,714 1.147304
2021 29 31,790 43,185 44,912 0.707823
2021 30 32,100 44,332 45,111 0.711575
2021 31 59,832 46,146 45,310 1.320502
2021 32 30,740 48,567 45,509 0.675473
2021 33 47,800 49,995 45,708 1.045775
2021 34 73,890 49,645 45,907 1.609574
2021 35 60,202 48,407 46,105 1.305747
2021 36 55,200 47,237 46,304 1.192115
2022 37 62,377 45,673 46,503 1.341352
2022 38 66,501 45,514 46,702 1.423946
2022 39 31,404 45,812 46,901 0.669584
2022 40 36,504 45,014 47,100 0.775038
2022 41 16,888 45,104 47,298 0.357052
2022 42 18,909 45,682 47,497 0.398107
2022 43 35,500 47,696 0.744295
2022 44 51,250 47,895 1.07005
2022 45 34,443 48,094 0.716163
2022 46 68,088 48,293 1.409904
2022 47 68,175 48,491 1.405917
2022 48 61,100 48,690 1.25487
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
 p 12
t 7

Demanda 2019
S1 1.107448
90,000
S2 1.318669 80,000
S3 0.687851 70,000
S4 0.908708 60,000
S5 0.630932 50,000
S6 0.443877 40,000
30,000
S7 0.890601
20,000
S8 0.828155 10,000
S9 0.664517 0
0 2 4 6 8
S10 1.318558
S11 1.444739
S12 1.289373 Demanda 2021
80,000
70,000

F1 54142.18 60,000
50,000
F2 64730.82
40,000
F3 33902
30,000
F4 44968.04
20,000
F5 31347.55
10,000
F6 22142.09 0
F7 44603.24 24 26 28 30 3
F8 41640.49
F9 33544.71 60,000
F10 66822.82
F11 73504.81
50,000
F12 65856.52
L 39146 f(x) = 198.844540969541 x + 39146.473214
T 198.84 40,000 R² = 0.256300514473784

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526
 Demanda 2019 Demanda 2020
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
4 6 8 10 12 14 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Demanda 2021 Demanda 2022

80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
28 30 32 34 36 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50

1 x + 39146.4732142857
84

5161718192021222324252627282930313233343536
 23 25

46 48 50