These ValeurTemps Marchandises

La valeur du temps en transport de marchandises
Jérôme Massiani
To cite this version:

Jérôme Massiani. La valeur du temps en transport de marchandises. Architecture, aménagement de
l’espace. Université Paris-Est, 2005. Français. �NNT : 2011PA123007�. �tel-00710376�
HAL Id: tel-00710376

https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00710376
Submitted on 20 Jun 2012
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Comparaison des performances 3 populations de validations
relatives des différentes méthodes de Individus identiques Autres individus
validation Même population Autre population
Chaque population validante permet de répondre à une question distincte.
Les SP sont-elles stables ? Les SP sont-elles généralisables ? Les SP sont-elles transférables ?
Qualité d'ajustements Méthode : Examen des indicateurs
(Goodness of fit) de la qualité d'ajustement du
modèle.
Interprétation : de mauvais
indicateurs permettent de rejeter le
Interne
modèle. De bons indicateurs

permettent-ils de "prouver" la
validité du modèle ?
Cohérence entre les exercices de préférences déclarées
Contexte identique Méthode : Soumettre les mêmes Méthode : Soumettre différents Méthode : Comparer les résultats
individus à deux expérience dans individus d ’une même population à de plusieurs expériences.
un même contexte. deux exercices identiques.
Interprétation : Réplicabilité des Résultat : stabilité des
comportements déclarés comportements déclarés.
Résultats équivalents aux
indicateurs de qualité d ’ajustement
Chaque critère peut être appliqué au même contexte ou à un contexte différent
Contexte différent Méthode : Soumettre les mêmes Méthode : Soumettre différents Méthode : Comparer les résultats
individus à deux contextes individus d’une même population à de plusieurs execercices de SP
différents. deux exercices différents. réalisées sur des populations
différentes.
Interprétation : stabilité des Résultat : stabilité des
comportements mis à jour par comportements déclarés.
différents exercices.
4 critères de validations
Faible efficacité car on ne sait pas La stabilité des résultats peut renforcer les SP. mais comment
Externe
si on mesure la stabilité de la interpréter une différence ?

méthode ou la différence entre les
contexte.
Capacité à reproduire des résultats de Préférences Révélées.
La comparaison ne vaut que pour un contexte et des individus identiques.
Contexte identique Méthode : Estimer un modèle à
partir de données RP et de données
SP.
Interprétation : capacité des SP
(plus économiques) à produire les
résultats des RP.
Une divergence ne permet pas N'est pas probant car on ne sait pas N'est pas très probant car on ne sait
d'invalider les SP. si la divergence est dûe à la pas si la divergence est dûe à la
différence d'individus ou à la différence d'individus ou à la
différence RP/SP. différence RP/SP.
Contexte différent s.o.
Confrontation entre les prévisions et les comportements réels

Contexte identique Méthode :Comparaison entre les idem
comportements prévus par un
modèle calé sur des SP et les
comportements réels.
Interprétation : capacité prédictive
des SP.
Contexte différent Méthode : idem, mais en

appliquant le comportement estimé
à un contexte différent.
Interprétation : stabilité de la
qualité prédictive des SP.
Mesure jusqu'où les résultats sont
ou ne sont pas transposables à
d'autres individus.
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Echantillon Dimension Valeur du bien Gestion de la production Directionnalité
complet Nb de salariés euros A la Gestion
<67 >67 <21445 >21445 commande de Stock Sortant Entrant
ASC (status quo) 1,04 0,65 1,37 0,78 1,23 0,96 1,07 1,03 1,14
(10,2) (4,2) (9,5) (5,1) (8,9) (6,7) (7,4) (9,6) (3,7)
Coût % coût -10,8150 -11,7882 -11,2435 -11,5454 -10,3696 -10,3377 -11,4165 -10,3205 -15,0628
-(15,9) -(11,6) -(11,3) -(11,6) -(10,9) -(10,5) -(12,0) -(14,4) -(6,8)
Mode (0= route) 0,58 0,69 0,42 0,76 0,43 0,52 0,63 0,66
(1 = intermodal (3,9) (3,0) (2,0) (3,4) (2,1) (2,3) (3,2) (4,1)
Durée jours -0,39 -0,29 -0,50 -0,32 -0,46 -0,49 -0,29 -0,41
-(5,6) -(2,8) -(5,0) -(3,1) -(4,7) -(4,6) -(3,1) -(5,5)
Ponctualité % (envois à 0,52 1,12 0,93 0,86 0,53
l'heure +_1h) (3,3) (4,9) (4,0) (3,6) (3,2)
Dommages. % des envois -14,6 -25,3 -8,5 -20,8 -10,7 -20,0 -11,2 -14,8 -15,0
avec pertes -(14,5) -(12,5) -(7,1) -(11,7) -(8,5) -(11,3) -(9,0) -(13,6) -(5,2)
Fréquence (0 = haute)
(1= basse)
Flexibilité (0=haute) -0,38 -0,44
(1= basse) -(2,4) -(2,6)
Log Vraisemblance -913,8 -407,4 -461,9 -427,0 -467,3 -422,9 -475,5 -790,7 -118,4
Nombre d'observations 1455 720 735 720 735 750 705 1260 195
LL ratio test proba. 7,84429E-16 5,13469E-06 0,000 0,312
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Echantillon Secteur
complet
Mécanique Métallurgique Ameublement Chimie Electronique
ASC (status quo) 1,04 0,88 0,66 1,32
(10,2) (3,9) (3,0) (4,0)
Coût % coût -10,8150 -18,3528 -9,0327 -10,8722 -14,0118 -16,3893
-(15,9) -(9,6) -(7,1) -(8,2) -(5,3) -(3,6)
Mode (0= route) 0,58 0,94
(1 = intermodal (3,9) (3,4)
Durée jours -0,39 -0,87 -0,33 -1,10
-(5,6) -(4,9) -(2,5) -(3,7)
Ponctualité % (envois à 0,52 0,67 3,95 6,09
l'heure +_1h) (3,3) (2,2) (4,5) (3,8)
Dommages. % des envois -14,6 -53,3 -15,4 -15,2 -3,0 -39,4
avec pertes -(14,5) -(10,4) -(7,1) -(7,8) -(4,0) -(3,9)
Fréquence (0 = haute) -0,79
(1= basse) -(2,5)
Flexibilité (0=haute) -0,38
(1= basse) -(2,4)
Log Vraisemblance -913,8 -162,7 -239,7 -247,6 -75,7 -33,6
Nombre d'observations 1455 450 360 420 135 90
LL ratio test proba. 8,3591E-260
- 22 2 2
" 5 9 22
2 9 1 22
% 5 9
<
7 "% "8
9
1 " '1
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2 ; 9 & 1 5
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5 2 1 2
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1 8 2 1 5 2
22 2 5 9
3 " 5
% = " 5 9- 2 K +@9
. 69 $ !! $
Echantillon Dimension Valeur du bien Gestion de la production
complet Nb de salariés euros A la Gestion
<67 >67 <21445 >21445 commande de Stock
1,6 1,8 2,1 0,4 3,2 2,0 1,1
GD
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2 9 1 8 9
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Coeff. Fixes
Coeff proba (t)
Coefficients fixes :
Durée (j.) DURA -0,32 0,0%
Coût (%) C1 -17,10 0,0%
Ponct
Fréquence
Flexibilité FLES -0,42 1,6%
Constante Status quo ASC_SQ 1,04 0,0%
Mode MODO 0,56 0,0%
Dommages (%) DANNI -11,40 0,0%
Termes d'interraction :
Dommages*Sect 1 DANXSET1 -37,24 0,0%
Ponct*Sect4 PUNXSET4 5,11 0,0%
Dommages*Sect 5 DANXSET5 -20,96 1,4%
Dommages*Sect 4 DANXSET4 8,89 0,0%
Dommages *Dim1 DANXDIM1 -9,99 0,0%
Coût(rel)*Sect1 C1XSET1 -7,03 0,1%
Coût(rel)*Sortants
Durée*Sect4 DURXSET4 -0,72 1,0%
Ponct*Val2 PUNXVAL2 1,24 0,0%
Coûts*Sect2 C1XSET2 4,60 0,3%
Asc*Dim1 ASCXDIM1 -0,65 0,0%
Ponct*sect3 PUNXSET3 3,20 0,0%
Coût*sortant C1XUSC 5,18 0,7%
Durée*sect1 DURXSET1 -0,44 1,7%
r² ajusté : 0,52
LogVraisemblance -756
(lF )
)
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1 #
lF
βF 1 22 F 8 5 1
βF 1 22 F 8 9
GC
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8 9
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2 " 5 9
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1 2 3 4
Triangulaire (t,*) (mode

Coeff. Fixes NN NN avec interractions normal)
Coeff
Dist proba (t) Coeff proba (t) Dist Coeff proba (t) Dist Coeff proba (t)
Coefficients fixes :
Durée -0,39 0,0% -0,42 0,0% -0,58 0,0% 1,12 0,0%
Coût (rel) -10,93 0,0% -11,84 0,0% -24,56 0,0% 19,74 0,0%
Ponct (1/2 journée) 2,65 0,0% 2,99 0,0% 3,02 0,0% 8,86 0,0%
Fréquence -0,17 29,1% -0,34 3,5% 0,00 0,0% 0,76 1,1%
Flexibilité -0,41 1,1% 0,00 0,0% -0,55 0,8% 1,22 0,0%
Constante Status quo 0,57 0,0% 1,41 0,0% 0,78 0,0% -0,09 59,6%
Mode 0,56 0,0% 0,43 0,1% 0,65 0,0% 1,34 0,0%
Dommages -14,80 0,0% -15,40 0,0% 54,90 0,0%
Composante stochastique du coefficient (écart type de la distribution des paramètres ) :
Durée N 0,75 0,0% N 1,07 0,0% T 2,25 0,0%
Coût (rel) N 6,59 0,0% N 9,61 0,0% T 39,49 0,0%
Ponct (1/2 journée) T 17,71 0,0%
Fréquence T 1,51 1,1%
Flexibilité T 2,44 0,0%
Constante Status quo
Mode N 0,85 1,2%
Dommages T 109,80 0,0%
Termes d'interraction :
Dommages*Sect 1 -43,97 0,0%
Ponct*Sect4 6,08 0,2%
Dommages*Sect 5 -18,60 6,2%
Dommages*Sect 4 12,10 0,0%
Dommages *Dimension1 -8,09 0,4%
Coût(rel)*Sect1 -8,65 1,0%
Coût(rel)*Sortants 9,46 0,9%
Durée*Sect4 -0,82 10,1%
Ponct*Val2 1,37 0,2%
Coûts*Sect2 5,70 5,6%
Asc*Dim1 -0,49 1,2%
rho² ajusté : 0,43 0,35 0,55 0,59

LogVraisemblance : -891 -1018 -694 -646
Nombre d'observations (nb. choix) : 1425 1425 1425 1425
Nombre d'interviews : 95 95 95 95
p(βd) >0 : 0% 29% 28% 0%
vdt moyenne (% coût/jour) 3,6% 3,5% 2,4% 5,7%
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Density
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-20 0 20 40 60 80
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