Mois \Annee 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1 698946 782471 870694 968713 925859 1043362 1206197

2 638041 642497 767514 913851 887970 995117 1107231
3 718236 760498 975288 1089179 1066484 1216390 1250160
4 821271 999909 1112996 1102760 1161178 1251333 1407424
5 784120 853569 924080 1060233 1088904 1255466 1222021
6 716939 804394 937958 1028911 1064090 1262765 1279706
7 888476 1009367 1188662 1241591 1323625 1587234 1687813
8 972707 1111095 1295654 1359673 1361028 1511463 1408773
9 813992 907950 1007962 927334 1014323 1313590 1383552
10 730863 821701 1038065 1121050 1178399 1398385 1377514
11 696184 821917 962669 1029702 1112587 1273727 1169888
12 712995 880184 1045039 1023464 1165564 1253009 1169639
m 766064.167 866296 1010548.42 1072205.08 1112500.92 1280153.42 1305826.5
ecar 94335.52 126647.008 141538.777 127176.008 140056.168 167006.148 158174.528

RAPPORT DÉTAILLÉ

Statistiques de la régression
Coefficient de 0.87958068
Coefficient de 0.77366217
Coefficient de -1.28571429
Erreur-type 106095.258
Observations 1

ANALYSE DE VARIANCE
Degré de liberté
Somme des carrés
Moyenne des carrés F Valeur critique de F
Régression 9 2.6933E+11 2.9926E+10 23.9272202 #NUM!
Résidus 7 7.8793E+10 1.1256E+10
Total 16 3.4812E+11

Coefficients Erreur-type Statistique

Limite
t Probabilité
inférieure
Limite
pour
supérieure
seuil
Limite
de confiance
pour
inférieure
seuil=de95%
pour
confiance
seuil de= confiance
95% = 95.0%
Constante 7.8793E+10
ecar 65535
94335.51996 7 7.8793E+10 8.88399E-11 1 -1.8632E+11 1.8632E+11 -1.8632E+11
126647.008 23.9272202 2.6933E+11 8.88399E-11 1 -6.3686E+11 6.3686E+11 -6.3686E+11
141538.7767 106095.258 7 15156.4655 1.43744E-27 106078.706 106111.811 106078.706
127176.0076 0.77366217 23.9272202 0.03233398 0.97510835 -55.805223 57.3525473 -55.805223
140056.1682 172307.538 106095.258 1.6240833 0.14838655 -78567.8832 423182.959 -78567.8832
167006.1479 1.1517915 0.77366217 1.48875252 0.18015957 -0.67762883 2.98121182 -0.67762883
158174.5277 291426.576 172307.538 1.69131646 0.13461692 -116016.007 698869.159 -116016.007
150275.5157 5.63404084 1.1517915 4.89154579 0.00177012 2.91048674 8.35759495 2.91048674
212523.0068
 2015 2016
1081964 1099282
1035573 1004268
1167371 1269531
1315917 1391086
1212113 1382546
1245333 1402087
1512292 1413756
1498327 1804211
1369894 1569708
1321584 1558858
1186176 1264159
1158118 1336699
1258721.83 1374682.58
150275.516 212523.007

supérieure pour seuil de confiance = 95.0%

7.8793E+10
65535
1.8632E+11
6.3686E+11
106111.811
57.3525473
423182.959
2.98121182
698869.159
8.35759495
 Analyse de variance: deux facteurs sans répétition d'expérience

RAPPORT DÉTAILLÉ
Nombre d'échantillons
Somme Moyenne Variance
Ligne 1 9 8677488 964165.333 2.632E+10
Ligne 2 9 7992062 888006.889 2.9096E+10
Ligne 3 9 9513137 1057015.22 4.1318E+10
Ligne 4 9 10563874 1173763.78 3.6427E+10
Ligne 5 9 9783052 1087005.78 4.0388E+10
Ligne 6 9 9742183 1082464.78 5.439E+10
Ligne 7 9 11852816 1316979.56 6.9813E+10
Ligne 8 9 12322931 1369214.56 5.7138E+10
Ligne 9 9 10308305 1145367.22 7.066E+10
Ligne 10 9 10546419 1171824.33 7.5426E+10 Test de fisher
Ligne 11 9 9517009 1057445.44 3.9687E+10
Ligne 12 9 9744711 1082745.67 3.7032E+10 Test de l'influence du facteur

Colonne 1 12 9192770 766064.167 8899190326 H0: Les moyennes sont toute

Colonne 2 12 10395552 866296 1.6039E+10 H1: Les moyennes ne sont pa
Colonne 3 12 12126581 1010548.42 2.0033E+10
Colonne 4 12 12866461 1072205.08 1.6174E+10
Colonne 5 12 13350011 1112500.92 1.9616E+10
Colonne 6 12 15361841 1280153.42 2.7891E+10
Colonne 7 12 15669918 1305826.5 2.5019E+10
Colonne 8 12 15104662 1258721.83 2.2583E+10 Test de l'influence du facteur
Colonne 9 12 16496191 1374682.58 4.5166E+10
H0: Les moyennes sont toute
H1: Les moyennes ne sont pa
ANALYSE DE VARIANCE
Source des variations
Somme des carrés
Degré de liberté
Moyenne des carrés F Probabilité
Valeur critique pour F Fc=103.7>2.04
Facteur mois 1.7715E+12 11 1.6105E+11 31.9138771 4.51604E-26 1.89917102
Facteur Annee 4.1775E+12 8 5.2218E+11 103.477204 2.08457E-41 2.04541432
Erreur 4.4408E+11 88 5046373741

Total 6.3931E+12 107

est de fisher

est de l'influence du facteur "Mois"

0: Les moyennes sont toutes egales (L'impact du facteur "mois" n'est pas significatif)
1: Les moyennes ne sont pas egales (L'impact du facteur "mois" est significatif, donc la serie est affectee d'une tendance saisonniere)

Fc=31.91>Fth=1.89
Rejet de H0, la serie est donc saisonniere

est de l'influence du facteur "Annee"

0: Les moyennes sont toutes egales (L'impact du facteur "annee" n'est pas significatif
1: Les moyennes ne sont pas egales (L'impact du facteur "annee" est significatif, donc la serie est affectee d'une tendance)

Fc=103.7>2.04
Rejet de H0, la serie est donc affectee d'une tendance

Selection du schema de decomposition

une tendance saisonniere)

d'une tendance)
 xt
1 698946
2 638041
3 718236
4 821271
5 784120
6 716939
7 888476
8 972707
9 813992
10 730863
11 696184
12 712995
13 782471
14 642497
15 760498
16 999909
17 853569
18 804394
19 1009367
20 1111095
21 907950
22 821701
23 821917
24 880184
25 870694
26 767514
27 975288
28 1112996
29 924080
30 937958
31 1188662
32 1295654
33 1007962
34 1038065
35 962669
36 1045039
37 968713
38 913851
39 1089179
40 1102760
41 1060233
42 1028911
43 1241591
44 1359673
45 927334
46 1121050
47 1029702
48 1023464
49 925859
50 887970
51 1066484
52 1161178
53 1088904
54 1064090
55 1323625
56 1361028
57 1014323
58 1178399
59 1112587
60 1165564
61 1043362
62 995117
63 1216390
64 1251333
65 1255466
66 1262765
67 1587234
68 1511463
69 1313590
70 1398385
71 1273727
72 1253009
73 1206197
74 1107231
75 1250160
76 1407424
77 1222021
78 1279706
79 1687813
80 1408773
81 1383552
82 1377514
83 1169888
84 1169639
85 1081964
86 1035573
87 1167371
88 1315917
89 1212113 2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
 2000000
90 1245333 1800000
91 1512292 1600000
92 1498327
1400000
93 1369894
1200000
94 1321584
95 1186176 1000000
96 1158118 800000
97 1099282 600000
98 1004268 400000
99 1269531
200000
100 1391086
101 1382546 0
102 1402087
103 1413756
104 1804211
105 1569708
106 1558858
107 1264159
108 1336699
Column B
Mois \Annee 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 698946 782471 870694 968713 925859 1043362 1206197
2 638041 642497 767514 913851 887970 995117 1107231
3 718236 760498 975288 1089179 1066484 1216390 1250160
4 821271 999909 1112996 1102760 1161178 1251333 1407424
5 784120 853569 924080 1060233 1088904 1255466 1222021
6 716939 804394 937958 1028911 1064090 1262765 1279706
14000000
7 888476 1009367 1188662 1241591 1323625 1587234 1687813
8 972707 1111095 1295654 1359673 1361028 1511463 1408773
12000000
9 813992 907950 1007962 927334 1014323 1313590 1383552
10 730863 821701 1038065 1121050 1178399 1398385 1377514
11 696184 821917 962669 1029702 1112587 1273727 10000000
1169888
12 712995 880184 1045039 1023464 1165564 1253009 1169639
8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
1 2 3 4
 2015 2016
1081964 1099282
1035573 1004268
1167371 1269531
1315917 1391086
1212113 1382546
1245333 1402087
14000000
1512292 1413756
1498327 1804211
12000000
1369894 1569708
1321584 1558858
10000000 1186176 1264159 Column J
1158118 1336699 Column I
8000000 Column H
Column G
Column F
6000000 Column E
Column D
4000000 Column C
Column B

2000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Annee \Mois 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2008 698946 638041 718236 821271 784120 716939 888476
2009 782471 642497 760498 999909 853569 804394 1009367
2010 870694 767514 975288 1112996 924080 937958 1188662
2011 968713 913851 1089179 1102760 1060233 1028911 1241591
2012 925859 887970 1066484 1161178 1088904 1064090 1323625
2013 1043362 995117 1216390 1251333 1255466 1262765 1587234
2014 1206197 1107231 1250160 1407424 1222021 1279706 1687813
2015 1081964 1035573 1167371 1315917 1212113 1245333 1512292
2016 1099282 1004268 1269531 1391086 1382546 1402087 1413756

RAPPORT DÉTAILLÉ

Statistiques de la régression
Coefficient d 0.87958068
Coefficient d 0.77366217
Coefficient d 0.74132819
Erreur-type 16563.4829
Observations 9

ANALYSE DE VARIANCE
Degré de liberté
Somme des carrés
Moyenne des carrés F Valeur critique de F
Régression 1 6564408119 6564408119 23.9272202 0.00177012
Résidus 7 1920442762 274348966
Total 8 8484850881

Coefficients Erreur-type Statistique

Limite
t Probabilité
inférieure
Limite
pour
supérieure
seuil
Limite
de confiance
pour
inférieure
seuil=de95%
pour
confiance
seuil de= confiance
95% = 95.0%
Constante -6879.2784 31821.2006 -0.21618538 0.83500809 -82124.4611 68365.9043 -82124.4611
m 0.13731923 0.02807277 4.89154579 0.00177012 0.07093768 0.20370078 0.07093768
 8 9 10 11 12 m σ
972707 813992 730863 696184 712995 766064.167 94335.52
1111095 907950 821701 821917 880184 866296 126647.008
1295654 1007962 1038065 962669 1045039 1010548.42 141538.777
1359673 927334 1121050 1029702 1023464 1072205.08 127176.008
1361028 1014323 1178399 1112587 1165564 1112500.92 140056.168
1511463 1313590 1398385 1273727 1253009 1280153.42 167006.148
1408773 1383552 1377514 1169888 1169639 1305826.5 158174.528
1498327 1369894 1321584 1186176 1158118 1258721.83 150275.516
1804211 1569708 1558858 1264159 1336699 1374682.58 212523.007

σ= -6879+0.13 m
[4.89]

supérieure pour seuil de confiance = 95.0%

68365.9043
0.20370078
 a b c d

t Xt xt^ St CS XtCVS X^ajus

Jan-08 1 698946 782158.135 0.89361213 0.89586526 780190.983
Feb-08 2 638041 788404.398 0.80928138 0.81680559 781141.818
Mar-08 3 718236 794650.661 0.90383867 0.96597763 743532.745
Apr-08 4 821271 800896.924 1.02543907 1.07148228 766481.181
May-08 5 784120 807143.187 0.97147571 0.98256585 798033.027
Jun-08 6 716939 813389.45 0.88142156 0.96737208 741120.209
Jul-08 7 888476 819635.714 1.08398888 1.1765504 755153.371
Aug-08 8 972707 825881.977 1.17777967 1.22003747 797276.331
Sep-08 9 813992 832128.24 0.97820499 1.00585389 809254.711
Oct-08 10 730863 838374.503 0.87176196 1.02080082 715970.23
Nov-08 11 696184 844620.766 0.82425631 0.92343772 753904.663
Dec-08 12 712995 850867.029 0.8379629 0.94248209 756507.744
Jan-09 13 782471 857113.292 0.91291432 0.8961469 873150.369
Feb-09 14 642497 863359.556 0.74418242 0.81774611 785692.517
Mar-09 15 760498 869605.819 0.87453187 0.973745 781003.24
Apr-09 16 999909 875852.082 1.1416414 1.07723768 928215.772
May-09 17 853569 882098.345 0.96765741 0.98395212 867490.383
Jun-09 18 804394 888344.608 0.9054977 0.9781159 822391.296
Jul-09 19 1009367 894590.871 1.12830013 1.18812059 849549.287
Aug-09 20 1111095 900837.134 1.23340275 1.2253197 906779.676
Sep-09 21 907950 907083.398 1.00095537 1.00931 899574.954
Oct-09 22 821701 913329.661 0.89967625 1.03943068 790529.869
Nov-09 23 821917 919575.924 0.89380004 0.93583539 878270.909
Dec-09 24 880184 925822.187 0.95070524 0.95554699 921131.047
Jan-10 25 870694 932068.45 0.93415242 0.89375156 974201.378
Feb-10 26 767514 938314.713 0.81797076 0.82825521 926663.655
Mar-10 27 975288 944560.976 1.03253048 0.98791831 987215.233
Apr-10 28 1112996 950807.24 1.17058006 1.06803714 1042094.84
May-10 29 924080 957053.503 0.96554686 0.98627993 936934.807
Jun-10 30 937958 963299.766 0.97369275 0.98848993 948879.676
Jul-10 31 1188662 969546.029 1.22599852 1.19666637 993311.111
Aug-10 32 1295654 975792.292 1.32779692 1.22416498 1058398.19
Sep-10 33 1007962 982038.555 1.02639758 1.01050352 997484.895
Oct-10 34 1038065 988284.818 1.05037028 1.0593956 979865.312
Nov-10 35 962669 994531.082 0.96796271 0.94184044 1022114.74
Dec-10 36 1045039 1000777.34 1.04422728 0.95623867 1092864.19
Jan-11 37 968713 1007023.61 0.96195659 0.88701808 1092100.62
Feb-11 38 913851 1013269.87 0.90188313 0.82996928 1101066.05
Mar-11 39 1089179 1019516.13 1.06832934 0.98048294 1110859.71
Apr-11 40 1102760 1025762.4 1.07506378 1.05094666 1049301.59
May-11 41 1060233 1032008.66 1.02734894 0.98973545 1071228.68
Jun-11 42 1028911 1038254.92 0.99100036 0.99095612 1038301.27
Jul-11 43 1241591 1044501.19 1.18869276 1.19177768 1041797.5
Aug-11 44 1359673 1050747.45 1.29400552 1.20689299 1126589.53
Sep-11 45 927334 1056993.71 0.87733161 1.00785451 920107.009
Oct-11 46 1121050 1063239.98 1.05437157 1.06089982 1056697.32
Nov-11 47 1029702 1069486.24 0.96280061 0.93748673 1098364.35
Dec-11 48 1023464 1075732.5 0.95141125 0.9415739 1086971.5
Jan-12 49 925859 1081978.77 0.85570903 0.87203038 1061727.92
Feb-12 50 887970 1088225.03 0.81598013 0.81558652 1088750.22
Mar-12 51 1066484 1094471.29 0.97442848 0.96291366 1107559.32
Apr-12 52 1161178 1100717.56 1.05492821 1.04612323 1109982.04
May-12 53 1088904 1106963.82 0.98368527 0.98221275 1108623.36
Jun-12 54 1064090 1113210.08 0.95587528 0.99094727 1073810.92
Jul-12 55 1323625 1119456.34 1.18238197 1.19239466 1110056.13
Aug-12 56 1361028 1125702.61 1.20904757 1.18947048 1144230.16
Sep-12 57 1014323 1131948.87 0.89608553 1.03395909 981008.831
Oct-12 58 1178399 1138195.13 1.03532247 1.06220547 1109388.94
Nov-12 59 1112587 1144441.4 0.97216599 0.93242395 1193220.1
Dec-12 60 1165564 1150687.66 1.01292822 0.93960643 1240481.08
Jan-13 61 1043362 1156933.92 0.9018337 0.87611072 1190902
Feb-13 62 995117 1163180.19 0.85551406 0.81548811 1220271.62
Mar-13 63 1216390 1169426.45 1.04015947 0.96003496 1267026.78
Apr-13 64 1251333 1175672.71 1.06435489 1.04392199 1198684.4
May-13 65 1255466 1181918.98 1.06222679 0.98184462 1278680.94
Jun-13 66 1262765 1188165.24 1.06278568 0.99971527 1263124.65
Jul-13 67 1587234 1194411.5 1.32888372 1.19489783 1328342.86
Aug-13 68 1511463 1200657.77 1.25886247 1.18457621 1275952.52
Sep-13 69 1313590 1206904.03 1.0883964 1.06842748 1229461.07
Oct-13 70 1398385 1213150.29 1.152689 1.06892622 1308214.7
Nov-13 71 1273727 1219396.55 1.04455519 0.92248845 1380751.17
Dec-13 72 1253009 1225642.82 1.02232802 0.92127599 1360079.95
Jan-14 73 1206197 1231889.08 0.97914416 0.86753639 1390370.5
Feb-14 74 1107231 1238135.34 0.89427299 0.80214613 1380335.77
Mar-14 75 1250160 1244381.61 1.00464359 0.93332679 1339466.54
Apr-14 76 1407424 1250627.87 1.12537393 1.03711102 1357062.05
May-14 77 1222021 1256874.13 0.97226999 0.95505056 1279535.39
Jun-14 78 1279706 1263120.4 1.01313066 0.9786918 1307567.92
Jul-14 79 1687813 1269366.66 1.3296497 1.15023587 1467362.52
Aug-14 80 1408773 1275612.92 1.10438909 1.15981412 1214654.12
Sep-14 81 1383552 1281859.19 1.07933228 1.06177118 1303060.42
Oct-14 82 1377514 1288105.45 1.06941089 1.04100529 1323253.6
Nov-14 83 1169888 1294351.71 0.90384089 0.88179953 1326705.17
Dec-14 84 1169639 1300597.98 0.89930864 0.88759198 1317766.53
Jan-15 85 1081964 1306844.24 0.82792116 0.8117325 1332907.08
Feb-15 86 1035573 1313090.5 0.78865318 0.7560827 1369655.72
Mar-15 87 1167371 1319336.77 0.88481655 0.89766839 1300447.93
Apr-15 88 1315917 1325583.03 0.99270809 0.99297956 1325220.63
May-15 89 1212113 1331829.29 0.91011138 0.94644085 1280706.55
Jun-15 90 1245333 1338075.55 0.9306896 0.96147237 1295235.34
Jul-15 91 1512292 1344321.82 1.1249479 1.06052895 1425978.99
Aug-15 92 1498327 1350568.08 1.10940501 1.18752663 1261720.75
Sep-15 93 1369894 1356814.34 1.00963997 1.05299062 1300955.55
Oct-15 94 1321584 1363060.61 0.96957097 1.02680249 1287086.86
Nov-15 95 1186176 1369306.87 0.86626017 0.87077885 1362201.2
Dec-15 96 1158118 1375553.13 0.84192895 0.88173364 1313455.61
Jan-16 97 1099282 1381799.4 0.79554384 0.79554384 1381799.4
Feb-16 98 1004268 1388045.66 0.72351222 0.72351222 1388045.66
Mar-16 99 1269531 1394291.92 0.91052023 0.91052023 1394291.92
Apr-16 100 1391086 1400538.19 0.99325103 0.99325103 1400538.19
May-16 101 1382546 1406784.45 0.98277032 0.98277032 1406784.45
Jun-16 102 1402087 1413030.71 0.99225515 0.99225515 1413030.71
Jul-16 103 1413756 1419276.98 0.99611001 0.99611001 1419276.98
Aug-16 104 1804211 1425523.24 1.26564826 1.26564826 1425523.24
Sep-16 105 1569708 1431769.5 1.09634127 1.09634127 1431769.5
Oct-16 106 1558858 1438015.76 1.08403401 1.08403401 1438015.76
Nov-16 107 1264159 1444262.03 0.87529754 0.87529754 1444262.03
Dec-16 108 1336699 1450508.29 0.92153834 0.92153834 1450508.29
 Xt^=6246*T+775911,872 Pente 6246.26314
Ordonnee.origine 775911.872

2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000 Column C

600000
400000
200000
0
1 6 1 1 1 6 21 26 3 1 36 41 4 6 5 1 56 61 6 6 71 76 8 1 86 91 9 6 0 1 0 6
1 1
Column C
t Yt Yt^ St CS YtCVS Y^ajus
1 88.1 183.362087 -95.2620874 -92.0857769
2 108.1 201.455538 -93.3555385
3 110.8 203.898154 -93.0981544
4 107.2 200.641333 -93.4413332
5 103.7 197.474979 -93.7749792
6 114.8 207.516845 -92.7168446
7 118.4 210.773666 -92.3736658
8 110.8 203.898154 -93.0981544
9 104 197.746381 -93.746381
10 120.5 212.673478 -92.1734781
11 126.1 217.739644 -91.6396444
12 112.6 205.526565 -92.926565
13 102.2 196.11797 -93.9179704
14 118.5 210.864133 -92.364133
15 124.7 216.473103 -91.7731028
16 116.5 209.054788 -92.5547879
17 110.6 203.71722 -93.1172198
18 119.5 211.768806 -92.2688056
19 133.3 224.253287 -90.9532868
20 116.8 209.32619 -92.5261897
21 112.7 205.617032 -92.9170322
22 125.9 217.55871 -91.6587099
23 138.4 228.867117 -90.4671168
24 117.2 209.688059 -92.4880587
25 113.9 206.702639 -92.8026393
26 134 224.886558 -90.8865576
27 142.3 232.39534 -90.0953398
28 122.6 214.57329 -91.9732905
29 120.3 212.492544 -92.1925436
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35 137 227.600575 -90.6005752
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38 145.9 235.652161 -89.7521609
39 144.2 234.114218 -89.9142176
40 130.6 221.810671 -91.2106709
41 135.1 225.881697 -90.7816974
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43 147.7 237.280572 -89.5805715
44 134.2 225.067492 -90.8674921
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49 140.1 230.40506 -90.3050601
50 152.9 241.984869 -89.0848688
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54 156.5 245.24169 -88.74169
55 167.1 254.831219 -87.731219
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58 160.9 249.222249 -88.3222492
Pente 0.90467255
Ordonnee.origine 103.660436