PRODUCCIÓN WATER Con datos

DATE DE PETROLEO PRODUCTION editados,

(BOPD) (BLS) MAPE = 4.62%
12/11/2022 451.78 2,047.01
13/11/2022 552.61 3,275.02 PRODUCCIÓN DE PETROLEO (BO
14/11/2022 809.21 4,130.45
16,000.00
15/11/2022 612.49 2,598.96
16/11/2022 732.54 3,733.17 14,000.00
17/11/2022 1,029.00 3,417.47 12,000.00
18/11/2022 2,565.99 1,713.72
10,000.00
19/11/2022 3,000.34 3,421.88
20/11/2022 2,662.77 1,997.65 8,000.00
21/11/2022 3,334.58 3,812.06 6,000.00
22/11/2022 3,473.44 3,817.78
4,000.00
23/11/2022 3,640.38 3,818.48
24/11/2022 3,606.72 3,818.27 2,000.00
25/11/2022 3,451.93 3,528.40 0.00
26/11/2022 3,314.95 3,162.14
22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
27/11/2022 3,040.25 3,793.10 / 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /2
1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7
/1 /1 /1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /
28/11/2022 3,030.25 4,182.18 Data Editada 12 25 08 21 03 16 29 11 24 09 22 04 17 30 13 26 08 21 04 17 30 12
29/11/2022 3,020.25 4,299.02 Data Editada
30/11/2022 3,010.25 3,551.46 Data Editada
01/12/2022 3,000.25 4,195.27 Data Editada
02/12/2022 2,990.25 4,217.30 Data Editada
03/12/2022 3,271.61 4,602.31
04/12/2022 3,592.72 4,454.13
05/12/2022 3,461.72 4,485.71
06/12/2022 3,089.99 3,080.91
07/12/2022 3,577.24 4,588.10
08/12/2022 3,396.78 4,562.47
09/12/2022 3,178.45 4,887.40
10/12/2022 3,185.82 4,930.63
11/12/2022 3,372.10 4,977.51
12/12/2022 3,314.77 5,022.73
13/12/2022 3,234.04 5,054.29
14/12/2022 2,320.25 610.40
15/12/2022 3,187.52 5,058.38
16/12/2022 3,122.18 5,093.77
17/12/2022 3,061.37 5,152.39
18/12/2022 2,980.68 5,188.20
19/12/2022 2,858.30 5,064.24
20/12/2022 2,061.27 3,689.20
21/12/2022 2,921.06 5,328.42
22/12/2022 2,843.25 5,362.36
23/12/2022 2,894.04 5,884.88
24/12/2022 2,992.71 5,809.69
25/12/2022 2,947.95 5,993.75
26/12/2022 3,013.77 5,900.28
27/12/2022 3,096.49 5,864.09
28/12/2022 3,079.37 5,819.93
29/12/2022 3,392.75 6,081.81
30/12/2022 3,304.50 6,191.99
31/12/2022 3,175.07 6,298.46
01/01/2023 3,130.21 6,163.84
02/01/2023 3,155.23 6,182.95
03/01/2023 3,208.36 6,163.20
04/01/2023 3,013.25 5,985.73
05/01/2023 2,660.72 4,055.51
06/01/2023 2,901.42 5,742.78
07/01/2023 2,872.12 5,790.97
08/01/2023 2,989.42 5,653.46
09/01/2023 3,124.45 5,854.97
10/01/2023 3,092.17 5,851.49
11/01/2023 3,144.61 5,890.41
12/01/2023 3,220.59 5,875.65
13/01/2023 3,069.71 5,849.23
14/01/2023 3,292.90 5,872.90
15/01/2023 3,152.01 5,895.90
16/01/2023 5,660.77 3,489.18
17/01/2023 5,943.56 1,963.98
18/01/2023 5,813.40 1,991.31
19/01/2023 5,630.72 2,031.27
20/01/2023 5,563.11 2,091.46
21/01/2023 5,585.32 3,107.95
22/01/2023 6,026.69 6,348.25
23/01/2023 6,166.31 7,334.58
24/01/2023 6,014.11 7,284.28
25/01/2023 5,932.40 7,248.58
26/01/2023 5,287.65 4,685.69
27/01/2023 5,011.38 2,854.20
28/01/2023 5,011.88 3,098.54
29/01/2023 5,050.92 3,269.91
30/01/2023 4,541.02 3,307.62
31/01/2023 5,650.59 7,912.80
01/02/2023 5,211.86 5,609.46
02/02/2023 5,034.04 4,853.21
03/02/2023 5,309.01 7,010.39
04/02/2023 5,415.24 6,917.07
05/02/2023 5,234.94 6,246.12
06/02/2023 4,648.69 6,774.13
07/02/2023 4,263.24 5,598.14
08/02/2023 4,808.70 7,071.30
09/02/2023 4,737.62 7,412.38
10/02/2023 4,611.72 7,435.87
11/02/2023 4,720.30 7,661.38
12/02/2023 4,863.53 7,645.78
13/02/2023 4,756.01 6,926.55
14/02/2023 4,503.55 7,276.85
15/02/2023 4,483.55 909.72 Data Editada
16/02/2023 4,463.55 1,138.55 Data Editada
17/02/2023 4,443.55 6,535.19 Data Editada
18/02/2023 4,363.54 7,300.22
19/02/2023 4,441.26 7,163.21
20/02/2023 4,483.27 7,231.75
21/02/2023 4,187.57 6,749.30
22/02/2023 3,515.09 5,652.09
23/02/2023 4,466.54 7,204.46
24/02/2023 4,506.29 7,529.60
25/02/2023 4,716.91 10,191.69
26/02/2023 4,627.86 9,965.96
27/02/2023 3,822.94 7,361.84
28/02/2023 3,355.28 5,787.38
01/03/2023 4,374.00 8,799.33
02/03/2023 4,401.18 8,998.65
03/03/2023 4,406.01 9,034.07
04/03/2023 4,410.35 9,009.73
05/03/2023 3,096.09 9,038.15
06/03/2023 3,076.09 8,278.32 Data Editada
07/03/2023 3,056.09 8,099.94 Data Editada
08/03/2023 3,280.00 8,199.00
09/03/2023 3,902.19 9,599.08
10/03/2023 4,020.33 10,071.24
11/03/2023 4,114.84 9,682.78
12/03/2023 4,010.59 9,664.10
13/03/2023 4,007.42 9,377.35
14/03/2023 6,175.60 6,785.99
15/03/2023 6,462.24 7,347.76
16/03/2023 6,464.22 7,350.78
17/03/2023 6,019.49 6,533.03
18/03/2023 6,419.28 7,405.73
19/03/2023 6,358.90 7,466.10
20/03/2023 6,465.90 7,944.10
21/03/2023 6,503.37 7,970.68
22/03/2023 6,617.90 7,932.99
23/03/2023 6,585.01 7,553.88
24/03/2023 6,375.34 7,594.65
25/03/2023 6,129.59 7,711.24
26/03/2023 6,027.55 7,882.45
27/03/2023 6,094.45 8,242.71
28/03/2023 6,103.70 8,296.30
29/03/2023 6,003.98 8,519.77
30/03/2023 5,983.98 6,594.78 Data Editada
31/03/2023 5,963.98 6,254.32 Data Editada
01/04/2023 5,943.98 6,658.43 Data Editada
02/04/2023 5,923.98 6,515.50 Data Editada
03/04/2023 5,903.98 7,596.92 Data Editada
04/04/2023 5,883.98 5,817.35 Data Editada
05/04/2023 5,863.98 9,049.56 Data Editada
06/04/2023 5,505.30 9,504.70
07/04/2023 5,186.61 8,996.32
08/04/2023 4,588.04 10,001.94
09/04/2023 4,517.33 9,200.81
10/04/2023 4,773.59 8,944.79
11/04/2023 5,189.86 9,415.15
12/04/2023 5,295.80 9,334.20
13/04/2023 5,266.55 9,353.45
14/04/2023 5,168.45 9,451.55
15/04/2023 5,019.56 9,209.19
16/04/2023 4,729.27 9,978.85
17/04/2023 5,047.74 10,162.26
18/04/2023 5,033.68 10,156.32
19/04/2023 4,924.39 10,323.61
20/04/2023 5,058.37 10,531.63
21/04/2023 5,173.95 10,606.41
22/04/2023 5,093.85 10,496.16
23/04/2023 4,919.94 10,013.81
24/04/2023 5,014.51 10,761.91
25/04/2023 4,882.64 10,560.31
26/04/2023 4,462.11 10,301.54
27/04/2023 4,673.28 10,936.72
28/04/2023 4,677.28 10,936.72
29/04/2023 4,405.91 10,460.35
30/04/2023 4,898.12 12,716.27
01/05/2023 5,070.05 14,478.73
02/05/2023 5,235.64 15,659.40
03/05/2023 5,070.05 14,478.73
04/05/2023 5,207.84 15,672.20
05/05/2023 4,545.48 10,949.52
06/05/2023 4,534.80 10,955.22
07/05/2023 4,469.73 11,005.27
08/05/2023 4,449.73 6,806.72 Data Editada
09/05/2023 4,429.73 5,967.00 Data Editada
10/05/2023 4,409.73 5,967.00 Data Editada
11/05/2023 4,032.83 9,728.84
12/05/2023 4,393.80 11,116.20
13/05/2023 4,120.96 10,749.06
14/05/2023 4,014.55 11,555.45
15/05/2023 3,660.45 11,049.55
16/05/2023 3,559.40 10,720.60
17/05/2023 3,328.00 10,542.05
18/05/2023 8,205.77 7,307.58
19/05/2023 8,319.15 8,690.85
20/05/2023 8,420.05 8,789.95
21/05/2023 8,528.72 8,611.28
22/05/2023 8,556.13 8,593.87
23/05/2023 8,519.91 8,423.12
24/05/2023 8,592.98 9,022.02
25/05/2023 8,566.88 8,809.30
26/05/2023 8,932.47 8,980.32
27/05/2023 8,737.93 9,074.31
28/05/2023 8,842.22 8,939.59
29/05/2023 8,930.73 9,141.25
30/05/2023 8,790.68 9,170.04
31/05/2023 8,726.91 9,200.07
01/06/2023 8,848.90 9,200.07
02/06/2023 8,601.40 9,258.95
03/06/2023 8,558.46 9,298.52
04/06/2023 8,311.27 9,514.75
05/06/2023 8,708.03 11,197.95
06/06/2023 8,805.53 11,851.90
07/06/2023 9,007.73 12,773.27
08/06/2023 8,578.73 12,147.80
09/06/2023 8,466.98 12,965.02
10/06/2023 8,559.18 13,532.80
11/06/2023 8,170.08 12,964.28
12/06/2023 8,195.67 13,931.32
13/06/2023 7,510.02 13,730.28
14/06/2023 7,829.33 14,301.62
15/06/2023 8,418.36 16,253.63
16/06/2023 8,822.55 18,377.45
17/06/2023 8,576.95 18,513.05
18/06/2023 8,228.56 18,764.48
19/06/2023 8,309.06 19,383.98
20/06/2023 8,061.06 18,306.99
21/06/2023 7,900.92 19,399.08
22/06/2023 7,501.70 19,438.30
23/06/2023 7,595.28 20,009.76
24/06/2023 7,012.34 18,500.62
25/06/2023 7,602.18 20,012.85
26/06/2023 7,367.48 20,632.39
27/06/2023 7,155.47 19,891.26
28/06/2023 7,487.52 20,722.37
29/06/2023 7,505.68 20,699.35
30/06/2023 7,360.45 20,859.55
01/07/2023 7,424.35 20,835.65
02/07/2023 7,400.96 21,299.04
03/07/2023 7,273.79 21,469.06
04/07/2023 7,218.38 21,319.54
05/07/2023 7,010.25 19,440.95
06/07/2023 7,071.03 21,835.95
07/07/2023 6,506.16 19,101.46
08/07/2023 6,904.06 21,802.92
09/07/2023 6,979.77 21,519.72
10/07/2023 6,939.77 10,834.66 Data Editada
11/07/2023 6,836.18 21,733.30
12/07/2023 6,835.69 21,732.93
13/07/2023 6,634.08 21,317.96
14/07/2023 9,088.47 2,628.19
15/07/2023 8,671.75 3,338.25
16/07/2023 8,900.79 4,376.21
17/07/2023 8,993.57 4,943.43
18/07/2023 9,311.65 4,037.86
19/07/2023 9,650.40 4,246.60
20/07/2023 9,502.07 4,516.93
21/07/2023 9,701.06 4,234.68
22/07/2023 9,571.00 4,594.83
23/07/2023 9,812.06 8,655.44
24/07/2023 9,667.48 9,302.52
25/07/2023 10,020.49 9,333.61
26/07/2023 10,062.12 9,464.88
27/07/2023 10,552.12 12,207.84
28/07/2023 10,717.18 11,862.79
29/07/2023 10,437.96 11,942.04
30/07/2023 10,234.36 11,789.60
31/07/2023 11,601.76 16,377.41
01/08/2023 13,008.22 18,880.73
02/08/2023 13,332.09 20,529.99
03/08/2023 13,312.09 16,277.50 Data Editada
04/08/2023 13,292.09 17,591.40 Data Editada
05/08/2023 13,272.09 17,288.33 Data Editada
06/08/2023 13,925.80 23,864.20
07/08/2023 13,030.76 19,783.08
08/08/2023 13,011.70 19,258.86
09/08/2023 13,120.01 20,045.75
10/08/2023 13,028.24 23,649.28
11/08/2023 12,266.12 23,795.22
12/08/2023 12,825.90 23,994.67
13/08/2023 12,625.00 24,665.57
14/08/2023 12,788.30 25,142.27
15/08/2023 12,373.27 24,245.95
16/08/2023 11,728.56 21,058.96
17/08/2023 12,344.82 25,276.06
18/08/2023 11,960.40 25,391.64
19/08/2023 11,930.40 15,958.48 Data Editada
20/08/2023 11,900.40 4,027.29 Data Editada
21/08/2023 11,870.40 4,386.37 Data Editada
22/08/2023 11,840.40 12,171.66 Data Editada
23/08/2023 11,810.40 12,904.65 Data Editada
24/08/2023 11,780.40 7,261.65 Data Editada
25/08/2023 11,750.40 1,303.68 Data Editada
26/08/2023 11,720.40 810.99 Data Editada
27/08/2023 11,690.40 951.76 Data Editada
28/08/2023 11,660.40 18,219.88 Data Editada
29/08/2023 11,630.40 22,792.79 Data Editada
30/08/2023 11,600.40 22,802.57 Data Editada
31/08/2023 11,570.40 23,141.05 Data Editada
01/09/2023 11,540.40 24,569.05 Data Editada
02/09/2023 11,510.40 24,884.86 Data Editada
03/09/2023 11,480.40 25,205.36 Data Editada
04/09/2023 11,450.40 24,868.39 Data Editada
05/09/2023 11,420.40 25,049.65 Data Editada
06/09/2023 11,390.40 28,265.71 Data Editada
07/09/2023 11,360.40 27,106.76 Data Editada
08/09/2023 11,330.40 28,686.04 Data Editada
09/09/2023 11,300.40 28,575.04 Data Editada
10/09/2023 11,270.40 28,810.02 Data Editada
11/09/2023 11,240.40 28,913.39 Data Editada
12/09/2023 11,210.40 28,859.39 Data Editada
13/09/2023 11,180.40 28,756.12 Data Editada
14/09/2023 11,150.40 24,075.07 Data Editada
15/09/2023 11,120.40 15,230.39 Data Editada
16/09/2023 11,090.40 18,918.25 Data Editada
17/09/2023 11,060.40 14,183.92 Data Editada
18/09/2023 11,030.40 7,788.66 Data Editada
19/09/2023 11,000.40 2,752.00 Data Editada
20/09/2023 10,970.40 25,096.52 Data Editada
21/09/2023 10,940.40 28,488.66 Data Editada
22/09/2023 10,910.40 28,504.26 Data Editada
23/09/2023 10,880.40 28,176.82 Data Editada
24/09/2023 10,850.40 29,401.76 Data Editada
25/09/2023 10,107.07 29,892.93
26/09/2023 10,214.64 29,860.37
27/09/2023 10,181.46 29,893.55
28/09/2023 10,527.31 29,867.70
29/09/2023 10,185.86 29,899.15
30/09/2023 10,013.15 28,361.86
01/10/2023 11,217.12 30,029.88
02/10/2023 11,284.99 30,063.06
03/10/2023 11,122.77 30,063.06
04/10/2023 10,012.04 30,077.96
05/10/2023 10,152.21 29,522.29
06/10/2023 10,014.71 30,180.51
07/10/2023 10,086.23 30,858.04
08/10/2023 9,905.35 30,866.01
09/10/2023 10,039.82 30,930.57
10/10/2023 9,639.43 30,930.57
11/10/2023 10,647.41 31,450.59
12/10/2023 9,992.27 30,191.75
13/10/2023 9,846.94 32,300.44
14/10/2023 9,675.30 30,972.22
15/10/2023 9,991.45 32,518.57
16/10/2023 9,945.70 32,111.35
17/10/2023 10,128.50 32,171.05
18/10/2023 10,036.00 32,171.05
19/10/2023 9,656.38 32,183.45
20/10/2023 9,864.80 32,472.23
21/10/2023 9,512.29 31,501.38
22/10/2023 9,805.80 32,531.23
23/10/2023 9,805.80 32,531.23
24/10/2023 9,619.15 32,367.88
25/10/2023 9,662.42 32,363.59
26/10/2023 9,648.30 32,388.73
27/10/2023 9,523.60 32,489.96
28/10/2023 9,661.41 32,980.73
29/10/2023 9,685.12 32,980.73
30/10/2023 9,686.47 33,143.53
31/10/2023 9,545.76 33,211.27
01/11/2023 9,474.81 33,312.22
02/11/2023 9,377.83 32,849.20
03/11/2023 9,062.91 30,046.10
04/11/2023 9,377.83 32,849.20
05/11/2023 9,253.75 32,813.28
06/11/2023 9,195.26 32,624.74
07/11/2023 9,175.26 29,618.19 Data Editada
08/11/2023 9,155.26 25,968.66 Data Editada
09/11/2023 9,079.03 32,210.97
10/11/2023 8,865.77 31,676.75
11/11/2023 9,599.53 29,336.30
12/11/2023 13,360.43 32,569.57
13/11/2023 12,897.28 30,387.29
14/11/2023 12,276.14 29,624.66
15/11/2023 12,670.68 33,009.32
16/11/2023 12,646.73 33,483.27
17/11/2023 12,885.57 33,533.74
18/11/2023 13,496.21 33,681.09
19/11/2023 12,204.88 32,361.60
20/11/2023 13,165.11 28,034.89
21/11/2023 12,833.14 27,342.54
22/11/2023 12,225.27 27,844.73
23/11/2023 12,463.73 29,296.31
24/11/2023 13,346.53 33,510.99
25/11/2023 13,191.00 33,969.00
26/11/2023 12,889.80 34,390.20
27/11/2023 13,209.90 34,359.29
28/11/2023 12,318.94 34,271.06
29/11/2023 12,116.74 34,613.26
30/11/2023 11,908.44 34,831.56
01/12/2023 11,910.24 35,129.76
CIÓN DE PETROLEO (BOPD)

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
02 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202
4/ 4/ 4/ 5/ 5/ 6/ 6/ 7/ 7/ 7/ 8/ 8/ 9/ 9/ 0/ 0/ 0/ 1/ 1/
/0 7/0 0/0 3/0 6/0 8/0 1/0 4/0 7/0 0/0 2/0 5/0 7/0 0/0 3/1 6/1 9/1 1/1 4/1
1 3 1 2 0 2 0 1 3 1 2 0 2 0 1 2 1 2
Forecasting results for OIL PRODUCTION (BL Date Observation Forecast Error
Day 1 451.780
Moving averages Day 2 552.610
Day 3 809.210
Span 3 Day 4 612.490 604.533 7.957
Day 5 732.540 658.103 74.437
Estimation period Day 6 1029.000 718.080 310.920
Day 7 2565.990 791.343 1774.647
MAE 333.0211 Day 1 3000.340 1442.510 1557.830
RMSE 611.4065 Day 2 2662.770 2198.443 464.327
MAPE 5.64% Day 3 3334.580 2743.033 591.547
Day 4 3473.440 2999.230 474.210
Day 5 3640.380 3156.930 483.450
Day 6 3606.720 3482.800 123.920
Day 7 3451.930 3573.513 -121.583
Day 1 3314.950 3566.343 -251.393
Day 2 3040.250 3457.867 -417.617
Day 3 3030.250 3269.043 -238.793
Day 4 3020.250 3128.483 -108.233
Day 5 3010.250 3030.250 -20.000
Day 6 3000.250 3020.250 -20.000
Day 7 2990.250 3010.250 -20.000
Day 1 3271.610 3000.250 271.360
Day 2 3592.720 3087.370 505.350
Day 3 3461.720 3284.860 176.860
Day 4 3089.990 3442.017 -352.027
Day 5 3577.240 3381.477 195.763
Day 6 3396.780 3376.317 20.463
Day 7 3178.450 3354.670 -176.220
Day 1 3185.820 3384.157 -198.337
Day 2 3372.100 3253.683 118.417
Day 3 3314.770 3245.457 69.313
Day 4 3234.040 3290.897 -56.857
Day 5 2320.250 3306.970 -986.720
Day 6 3187.520 2956.353 231.167
Day 7 3122.180 2913.937 208.243
Day 1 3061.370 2876.650 184.720
Day 2 2980.680 3123.690 -143.010
Day 3 2858.300 3054.743 -196.443
Day 4 2061.270 2966.783 -905.513
Day 5 2921.060 2633.417 287.643
Day 6 2843.250 2613.543 229.707
Day 7 2894.040 2608.527 285.513
Day 1 2992.710 2886.117 106.593
Day 2 2947.950 2910.000 37.950
Day 3 3013.770 2944.900 68.870
Day 4 3096.490 2984.810 111.680
Day 5 3079.370 3019.403 59.967
Day 6 3392.750 3063.210 329.540
Day 7 3304.500 3189.537 114.963
Day 1 3175.070 3258.873 -83.803
Day 2 3130.210 3290.773 -160.563
Day 3 3155.230 3203.260 -48.030
Day 4 3208.360 3153.503 54.857
Day 5 3013.250 3164.600 -151.350
Day 6 2660.720 3125.613 -464.893
Day 7 2901.420 2960.777 -59.357
Day 1 2872.120 2858.463 13.657
Day 2 2989.420 2811.420 178.000
Day 3 3124.450 2920.987 203.463
Day 4 3092.170 2995.330 96.840
Day 5 3144.610 3068.680 75.930
Day 6 3220.590 3120.410 100.180
Day 7 3069.710 3152.457 -82.747
Day 1 3292.900 3144.970 147.930
Day 2 3152.010 3194.400 -42.390
Day 3 5660.770 3171.540 2489.230
Day 4 5943.560 4035.227 1908.333
Day 5 5813.400 4918.780 894.620
Day 6 5630.720 5805.910 -175.190
Day 7 5563.110 5795.893 -232.783
Day 1 5585.320 5669.077 -83.757
Day 2 6026.690 5593.050 433.640
Day 3 6166.310 5725.040 441.270
Day 4 6014.110 5926.107 88.003
Day 5 5932.400 6069.037 -136.637
Day 6 5287.650 6037.607 -749.957
Day 7 5011.380 5744.720 -733.340
Day 1 5011.880 5410.477 -398.597
Day 2 5050.920 5103.637 -52.717
Day 3 4541.020 5024.727 -483.707
Day 4 5650.590 4867.940 782.650
Day 5 5211.860 5080.843 131.017
Day 6 5034.040 5134.490 -100.450
Day 7 5309.010 5298.830 10.180
Day 1 5415.240 5184.970 230.270
Day 2 5234.940 5252.763 -17.823
Day 3 4648.690 5319.730 -671.040
Day 4 4263.238 5099.623 -836.386
Day 5 4808.700 4715.623 93.077
Day 6 4737.620 4573.543 164.077
Day 7 4611.720 4603.186 8.534
Day 1 4720.300 4719.347 0.953
Day 2 4863.533 4689.880 173.653
Day 3 4756.010 4731.851 24.159
Day 4 4503.550 4779.948 -276.398
Day 5 4483.550 4707.698 -224.148
Day 6 4463.550 4581.037 -117.487
Day 7 4443.550 4483.550 -40.000
Day 1 4363.540 4463.550 -100.010
Day 2 4441.260 4423.547 17.713
Day 3 4483.270 4416.117 67.153
Day 4 4187.570 4429.357 -241.787
Day 5 3515.090 4370.700 -855.610
Day 6 4466.540 4061.977 404.563
Day 7 4506.290 4056.400 449.890
Day 1 4716.910 4162.640 554.270
Day 2 4627.860 4563.247 64.613
Day 3 3822.940 4617.020 -794.080
Day 4 3355.283 4389.237 -1033.953
Day 5 4374.000 3935.361 438.639
Day 6 4401.180 3850.741 550.439
Day 7 4406.010 4043.488 362.522
Day 1 4410.350 4393.730 16.620
Day 2 3096.090 4405.846 -1309.756
Day 3 3076.090 3970.816 -894.726
Day 4 3056.090 3527.510 -471.420
Day 5 3280.000 3076.090 203.910
Day 6 3902.190 3137.393 764.797
Day 7 4020.330 3412.760 607.570
Day 1 4114.840 3734.173 380.667
Day 2 4010.590 4012.453 -1.863
Day 3 4007.420 4048.587 -41.167
Day 4 6175.600 4044.283 2131.317
Day 5 6462.240 4731.203 1731.037
Day 6 6464.220 5548.420 915.800
Day 7 6019.490 6367.353 -347.863
Day 1 6419.280 6315.317 103.963
Day 2 6358.900 6300.997 57.903
Day 3 6465.900 6265.890 200.010
Day 4 6503.370 6414.693 88.677
Day 5 6617.900 6442.723 175.177
Day 6 6585.010 6529.057 55.953
Day 7 6375.340 6568.760 -193.420
Day 1 6129.590 6526.083 -396.493
Day 2 6027.550 6363.313 -335.763
Day 3 6094.450 6177.493 -83.043
Day 4 6103.700 6083.863 19.837
Day 5 6003.980 6075.233 -71.253
Day 6 5983.980 6067.377 -83.397
Day 7 5963.980 6030.553 -66.573
Day 1 5943.980 5983.980 -40.000
Day 2 5923.980 5963.980 -40.000
Day 3 5903.980 5943.980 -40.000
Day 4 5883.980 5923.980 -40.000
Day 5 5863.980 5903.980 -40.000
Day 6 5505.300 5883.980 -378.680
Day 7 5186.610 5751.087 -564.477
Day 1 4588.040 5518.630 -930.590
Day 2 4517.330 5093.317 -575.987
Day 3 4773.590 4763.993 9.597
Day 4 5189.860 4626.320 563.540
Day 5 5295.800 4826.927 468.873
Day 6 5266.550 5086.417 180.133
Day 7 5168.450 5250.737 -82.287
Day 1 5019.560 5243.600 -224.040
Day 2 4729.270 5151.520 -422.250
Day 3 5047.740 4972.427 75.313
Day 4 5033.680 4932.190 101.490
Day 5 4924.390 4936.897 -12.507
Day 6 5058.370 5001.937 56.433
Day 7 5173.945 5005.480 168.465
Day 1 5093.850 5052.235 41.615
Day 2 4919.940 5108.722 -188.782
Day 3 5014.510 5062.578 -48.068
Day 4 4882.635 5009.433 -126.798
Day 5 4462.110 4939.028 -476.918
Day 6 4673.280 4786.418 -113.138
Day 7 4677.280 4672.675 4.605
Day 1 4405.905 4604.223 -198.318
Day 2 4898.123 4585.488 312.635
Day 3 5070.050 4660.436 409.614
Day 4 5235.640 4791.359 444.281
Day 5 5070.050 5067.938 2.112
Day 6 5207.840 5125.247 82.593
Day 7 4545.480 5171.177 -625.697
Day 1 4534.800 4941.123 -406.323
Day 2 4469.730 4762.707 -292.977
Day 3 4449.730 4516.670 -66.940
Day 4 4429.730 4484.753 -55.023
Day 5 4409.730 4449.730 -40.000
Day 6 4032.830 4429.730 -396.900
Day 7 4393.800 4290.763 103.037
Day 1 4120.960 4278.787 -157.827
Day 2 4014.550 4182.530 -167.980
Day 3 3660.450 4176.437 -515.987
Day 4 3559.400 3931.987 -372.587
Day 5 3328.000 3744.800 -416.800
Day 6 8205.770 3515.950 4689.820
Day 7 8319.150 5031.057 3288.093
Day 1 8420.050 6617.640 1802.410
Day 2 8528.720 8314.990 213.730
Day 3 8556.130 8422.640 133.490
Day 4 8519.910 8501.633 18.277
Day 5 8592.980 8534.920 58.060
Day 6 8566.880 8556.340 10.540
Day 7 8932.467 8559.923 372.544
Day 1 8737.930 8697.442 40.488
Day 2 8842.220 8745.759 96.461
Day 3 8930.730 8837.539 93.191
Day 4 8790.680 8836.960 -46.280
Day 5 8726.910 8854.543 -127.633
Day 6 8848.900 8816.107 32.793
Day 7 8601.400 8788.830 -187.430
Day 1 8558.460 8725.737 -167.277
Day 2 8311.270 8669.587 -358.317
Day 3 8708.030 8490.377 217.653
Day 4 8805.530 8525.920 279.610
Day 5 9007.733 8608.277 399.456
Day 6 8578.730 8840.431 -261.701
Day 7 8466.983 8797.331 -330.348
Day 1 8559.180 8684.482 -125.302
Day 2 8170.080 8534.964 -364.884
Day 3 8195.670 8398.748 -203.078
Day 4 7510.020 8308.310 -798.290
Day 5 7829.325 7958.590 -129.265
Day 6 8418.360 7845.005 573.355
Day 7 8822.550 7919.235 903.315
Day 1 8576.950 8356.745 220.205
Day 2 8228.560 8605.953 -377.393
Day 3 8309.060 8542.687 -233.627
Day 4 8061.060 8371.523 -310.463
Day 5 7900.920 8199.560 -298.640
Day 6 7501.700 8090.347 -588.647
Day 7 7595.280 7821.227 -225.947
Day 1 7012.340 7665.967 -653.627
Day 2 7602.180 7369.773 232.407
Day 3 7367.480 7403.267 -35.787
Day 4 7155.470 7327.333 -171.863
Day 5 7487.520 7375.043 112.477
Day 6 7505.680 7336.823 168.857
Day 7 7360.450 7382.890 -22.440
Day 1 7424.350 7451.217 -26.867
Day 2 7400.960 7430.160 -29.200
Day 3 7273.790 7395.253 -121.463
Day 4 7218.380 7366.367 -147.987
Day 5 7010.250 7297.710 -287.460
Day 6 7071.030 7167.473 -96.443
Day 7 6506.160 7099.887 -593.727
Day 1 6904.060 6862.480 41.580
Day 2 6979.770 6827.083 152.687
Day 3 6939.770 6796.663 143.107
Day 4 6836.180 6941.200 -105.020
Day 5 6835.690 6918.573 -82.883
Day 6 6634.080 6870.547 -236.467
Day 7 9088.470 6768.650 2319.820
Day 1 8671.750 7519.413 1152.337
Day 2 8900.790 8131.433 769.357
Day 3 8993.567 8887.003 106.564
Day 4 9311.650 8855.369 456.281
Day 5 9650.400 9068.669 581.731
Day 6 9502.070 9318.539 183.531
Day 7 9701.060 9488.040 213.020
Day 1 9571.000 9617.843 -46.843
Day 2 9812.060 9591.377 220.683
Day 3 9667.480 9694.707 -27.227
Day 4 10020.490 9683.513 336.977
Day 5 10062.120 9833.343 228.777
Day 6 10552.120 9916.697 635.423
Day 7 10717.180 10211.577 505.603
Day 1 10437.960 10443.807 -5.847
Day 2 10234.360 10569.087 -334.727
Day 3 11601.760 10463.167 1138.593
Day 4 13008.220 10758.027 2250.193
Day 5 13332.090 11614.780 1717.310
Day 6 13312.090 12647.357 664.733
Day 7 13292.090 13217.467 74.623
Day 1 13272.090 13312.090 -40.000
Day 2 13925.800 13292.090 633.710
Day 3 13030.760 13496.660 -465.900
Day 4 13011.700 13409.550 -397.850
Day 5 13120.010 13322.753 -202.743
Day 6 13028.240 13054.157 -25.917
Day 7 12266.120 13053.317 -787.197
Day 1 12825.900 12804.790 21.110
Day 2 12625.000 12706.753 -81.753
Day 3 12788.300 12572.340 215.960
Day 4 12373.270 12746.400 -373.130
Day 5 11728.560 12595.523 -866.963
Day 6 12344.820 12296.710 48.110
Day 7 11960.400 12148.883 -188.483
Day 1 11930.400 12011.260 -80.860
Day 2 11900.400 12078.540 -178.140
Day 3 11870.400 11930.400 -60.000
Day 4 11840.400 11900.400 -60.000
Day 5 11810.400 11870.400 -60.000
Day 6 11780.400 11840.400 -60.000
Day 7 11750.400 11810.400 -60.000
Day 1 11720.400 11780.400 -60.000
Day 2 11690.400 11750.400 -60.000
Day 3 11660.400 11720.400 -60.000
Day 4 11630.400 11690.400 -60.000
Day 5 11600.400 11660.400 -60.000
Day 6 11570.400 11630.400 -60.000
Day 7 11540.400 11600.400 -60.000
Day 1 11510.400 11570.400 -60.000
Day 2 11480.400 11540.400 -60.000
Day 3 11450.400 11510.400 -60.000
Day 4 11420.400 11480.400 -60.000
Day 5 11390.400 11450.400 -60.000
Day 6 11360.400 11420.400 -60.000
Day 7 11330.400 11390.400 -60.000
Day 1 11300.400 11360.400 -60.000
Day 2 11270.400 11330.400 -60.000
Day 3 11240.400 11300.400 -60.000
Day 4 11210.400 11270.400 -60.000
Day 5 11180.400 11240.400 -60.000
Day 6 11150.400 11210.400 -60.000
Day 7 11120.400 11180.400 -60.000
Day 1 11090.400 11150.400 -60.000
Day 2 11060.400 11120.400 -60.000
Day 3 11030.400 11090.400 -60.000
Day 4 11000.400 11060.400 -60.000
Day 5 10970.400 11030.400 -60.000
Day 6 10940.400 11000.400 -60.000
Day 7 10910.400 10970.400 -60.000
Day 1 10880.400 10940.400 -60.000
Day 2 10850.400 10910.400 -60.000
Day 3 10107.070 10880.400 -773.330
Day 4 10214.640 10612.623 -397.983
Day 5 10181.460 10390.703 -209.243
Day 6 10527.310 10167.723 359.587
Day 7 10185.860 10307.803 -121.943
Day 1 10013.150 10298.210 -285.060
Day 2 11217.120 10242.107 975.013
Day 3 11284.990 10472.043 812.947
Day 4 11122.770 10838.420 284.350
Day 5 10012.040 11208.293 -1196.253
Day 6 10152.210 10806.600 -654.390
Day 7 10014.710 10429.007 -414.297
Day 1 10086.230 10059.653 26.577
Day 2 9905.350 10084.383 -179.033
Day 3 10039.820 10002.097 37.723
Day 4 9639.430 10010.467 -371.037
Day 5 10647.410 9861.533 785.877
Day 6 9992.270 10108.887 -116.617
Day 7 9846.940 10093.037 -246.097
Day 1 9675.300 10162.207 -486.907
Day 2 9991.450 9838.170 153.280
Day 3 9945.700 9837.897 107.803
Day 4 10128.500 9870.817 257.683
Day 5 10036.000 10021.883 14.117
Day 6 9656.380 10036.733 -380.353
Day 7 9864.800 9940.293 -75.493
Day 1 9512.290 9852.393 -340.103
Day 2 9805.800 9677.823 127.977
Day 3 9805.800 9727.630 78.170
Day 4 9619.150 9707.963 -88.813
Day 5 9662.420 9743.583 -81.163
Day 6 9648.300 9695.790 -47.490
Day 7 9523.600 9643.290 -119.690
Day 1 9661.410 9611.440 49.970
Day 2 9685.120 9611.103 74.017
Day 3 9686.470 9623.377 63.093
Day 4 9545.760 9677.667 -131.907
Day 5 9474.810 9639.117 -164.307
Day 6 9377.830 9569.013 -191.183
Day 7 9062.910 9466.133 -403.223
Day 1 9377.830 9305.183 72.647
Day 2 9253.750 9272.857 -19.107
Day 3 9195.260 9231.497 -36.237
Day 4 9175.260 9275.613 -100.353
Day 5 9155.260 9208.090 -52.830
Day 6 9079.030 9175.260 -96.230
Day 7 8865.770 9136.517 -270.747
Day 1 9599.530 9033.353 566.177
Day 2 13360.430 9181.443 4178.987
Day 3 12897.280 10608.577 2288.703
Day 4 12276.140 11952.413 323.727
Day 5 12670.680 12844.617 -173.937
Day 6 12646.730 12614.700 32.030
Day 7 12885.570 12531.183 354.387
Day 1 13496.210 12734.327 761.883
Day 2 12204.880 13009.503 -804.623
Day 3 13165.110 12862.220 302.890
Day 4 12833.140 12955.400 -122.260
Day 5 12225.270 12734.377 -509.107
Day 6 12463.730 12741.173 -277.443
Day 7 13346.530 12507.380 839.150
Day 1 13191.000 12678.510 512.490
Day 2 12889.800 13000.420 -110.620
Day 3 13209.900 13142.443 67.457
Day 4 12318.940 13096.900 -777.960
Day 5 12116.740 12806.213 -689.473
Day 6 11908.440 12548.527 -640.087
Day 7 11910.240 12114.707 -204.467
Day 1 11978.473
Day 2 11932.384
Day 3 11940.366
Day 4 11950.408
Day 5 11941.053
Day 6 11943.942
Day 7 11945.134
Day 1 11943.376
Day 2 11944.151
Day 3 11944.221
Day 4 11943.916
Day 5 11944.096
Day 6 11944.077
Day 7 11944.030
Day 1 11944.068
Day 2 11944.058
Day 3 11944.052
Day 4 11944.059
Day 5 11944.057
Day 6 11944.056
Day 7 11944.057
Day 1 11944.057
Day 2 11944.057
Day 3 11944.057
Day 4 11944.057
Day 5 11944.057
Day 6 11944.057
Day 7 11944.057
Day 1 11944.057
Day 2 11944.057
 Time series of OIL PRODUCTION (BLS) with forecasts superimposed
16000.000 17000.000

14000.000 15000.000

12000.000 13000.000

10000.000 11000.000

8000.000 9000.000

6000.000 7000.000

4000.000 5000.000

2000.000 3000.000

0.000 1000.000
1 19 37 55 73 91 109127145163181199217235253271289307325343361379397415
Time
ecasts superimposed
17000.000

15000.000

13000.000

11000.000

9000.000 Forecast
Observation
7000.000

5000.000

3000.000

1000.000
43361379397415
Forecasting results for OIL PRODUCTION (BL Date Observation SmLevel Forecast
Day 1 451.780 451.780
Simple exponential smoothing Day 2 552.610 547.958 451.780
Day 3 809.210 797.157 547.958
Smoothing constant(s) Day 4 612.490 621.010 797.157
Level 0.954 Day 5 732.540 727.394 621.010
Day 6 1029.000 1015.085 727.394
Estimation period Day 7 2565.990 2494.437 1015.085
Day 1 3000.340 2977.000 2494.437
MAE 263.2528 Day 2 2662.770 2677.267 2977.000
RMSE 511.1816 Day 3 3334.580 3304.254 2677.267
MAPE 4.64% Day 4 3473.440 3465.634 3304.254
Day 5 3640.380 3632.318 3465.634
Day 6 3606.720 3607.901 3632.318
Day 7 3451.930 3459.126 3607.901
Day 1 3314.950 3321.602 3459.126
Day 2 3040.250 3053.230 3321.602
Day 3 3030.250 3031.310 3053.230
Day 4 3020.250 3020.760 3031.310
Day 5 3010.250 3010.735 3020.760
Day 6 3000.250 3000.734 3010.735
Day 7 2990.250 2990.734 3000.734
Day 1 3271.610 3258.651 2990.734
Day 2 3592.720 3577.307 3258.651
Day 3 3461.720 3467.053 3577.307
Day 4 3089.990 3107.386 3467.053
Day 5 3577.240 3555.563 3107.386
Day 6 3396.780 3404.106 3555.563
Day 7 3178.450 3188.861 3404.106
Day 1 3185.820 3185.960 3188.861
Day 2 3372.100 3363.512 3185.960
Day 3 3314.770 3317.019 3363.512
Day 4 3234.040 3237.868 3317.019
Day 5 2320.250 2362.585 3237.868
Day 6 3187.520 3149.461 2362.585
Day 7 3122.180 3123.439 3149.461
Day 1 3061.370 3064.234 3123.439
Day 2 2980.680 2984.535 3064.234
Day 3 2858.300 2864.124 2984.535
Day 4 2061.270 2098.311 2864.124
Day 5 2921.060 2883.102 2098.311
Day 6 2843.250 2845.089 2883.102
Day 7 2894.040 2891.782 2845.089
Day 1 2992.710 2988.054 2891.782
Day 2 2947.950 2949.800 2988.054
Day 3 3013.770 3010.819 2949.800
Day 4 3096.490 3092.537 3010.819
Day 5 3079.370 3079.977 3092.537
Day 6 3392.750 3378.320 3079.977
Day 7 3304.500 3307.906 3378.320
Day 1 3175.070 3181.199 3307.906
Day 2 3130.210 3132.562 3181.199
Day 3 3155.230 3154.184 3132.562
Day 4 3208.360 3205.861 3154.184
Day 5 3013.250 3022.136 3205.861
Day 6 2660.720 2677.394 3022.136
Day 7 2901.420 2891.084 2677.394
Day 1 2872.120 2872.995 2891.084
Day 2 2989.420 2984.049 2872.995
Day 3 3124.450 3117.972 2984.049
Day 4 3092.170 3093.360 3117.972
Day 5 3144.610 3142.246 3093.360
Day 6 3220.590 3216.975 3142.246
Day 7 3069.710 3076.504 3216.975
Day 1 3292.900 3282.916 3076.504
Day 2 3152.010 3158.050 3282.916
Day 3 5660.770 5545.304 3158.050
Day 4 5943.560 5925.186 5545.304
Day 5 5813.400 5818.557 5925.186
Day 6 5630.720 5639.386 5818.557
Day 7 5563.110 5566.629 5639.386
Day 1 5585.320 5584.458 5566.629
Day 2 6026.690 6006.287 5584.458
Day 3 6166.310 6158.927 6006.287
Day 4 6014.110 6020.791 6158.927
Day 5 5932.400 5936.478 6020.791
Day 6 5287.650 5317.584 5936.478
Day 7 5011.380 5025.507 5317.584
Day 1 5011.880 5012.509 5025.507
Day 2 5050.920 5049.148 5012.509
Day 3 4541.020 4564.463 5049.148
Day 4 5650.590 5600.480 4564.463
Day 5 5211.860 5229.789 5600.480
Day 6 5034.040 5043.071 5229.789
Day 7 5309.010 5296.741 5043.071
Day 1 5415.240 5409.773 5296.741
Day 2 5234.940 5243.006 5409.773
Day 3 4648.690 4676.109 5243.006
Day 4 4263.238 4282.286 4676.109
Day 5 4808.700 4784.413 4282.286
Day 6 4737.620 4739.779 4784.413
Day 7 4611.720 4617.628 4739.779
Day 1 4720.300 4715.563 4617.628
Day 2 4863.533 4856.707 4715.563
Day 3 4756.010 4760.656 4856.707
Day 4 4503.550 4515.412 4760.656
Day 5 4483.550 4485.020 4515.412
Day 6 4463.550 4464.541 4485.020
Day 7 4443.550 4444.518 4464.541
Day 1 4363.540 4367.276 4444.518
Day 2 4441.260 4437.847 4367.276
Day 3 4483.270 4481.174 4437.847
Day 4 4187.570 4201.116 4481.174
Day 5 3515.090 3546.741 4201.116
Day 6 4466.540 4424.104 3546.741
Day 7 4506.290 4502.498 4424.104
Day 1 4716.910 4707.018 4502.498
Day 2 4627.860 4631.512 4707.018
Day 3 3822.940 3860.244 4631.512
Day 4 3355.283 3378.580 3860.244
Day 5 4374.000 4328.075 3378.580
Day 6 4401.180 4397.807 4328.075
Day 7 4406.010 4405.631 4397.807
Day 1 4410.350 4410.132 4405.631
Day 2 3096.090 3156.715 4410.132
Day 3 3076.090 3079.810 3156.715
Day 4 3056.090 3057.184 3079.810
Day 5 3280.000 3269.720 3057.184
Day 6 3902.190 3873.010 3269.720
Day 7 4020.330 4013.533 3873.010
Day 1 4114.840 4110.166 4013.533
Day 2 4010.590 4015.184 4110.166
Day 3 4007.420 4007.778 4015.184
Day 4 6175.600 6075.585 4007.778
Day 5 6462.240 6444.401 6075.585
Day 6 6464.220 6463.306 6444.401
Day 7 6019.490 6039.966 6463.306
Day 1 6419.280 6401.780 6039.966
Day 2 6358.900 6360.878 6401.780
Day 3 6465.900 6461.055 6360.878
Day 4 6503.370 6501.418 6461.055
Day 5 6617.900 6612.526 6501.418
Day 6 6585.010 6586.279 6612.526
Day 7 6375.340 6385.072 6586.279
Day 1 6129.590 6141.377 6385.072
Day 2 6027.550 6032.802 6141.377
Day 3 6094.450 6091.606 6032.802
Day 4 6103.700 6103.142 6091.606
Day 5 6003.980 6008.555 6103.142
Day 6 5983.980 5985.114 6008.555
Day 7 5963.980 5964.955 5985.114
Day 1 5943.980 5944.948 5964.955
Day 2 5923.980 5924.947 5944.948
Day 3 5903.980 5904.947 5924.947
Day 4 5883.980 5884.947 5904.947
Day 5 5863.980 5864.947 5884.947
Day 6 5505.300 5521.893 5864.947
Day 7 5186.610 5202.079 5521.893
Day 1 4588.040 4616.369 5202.079
Day 2 4517.330 4521.899 4616.369
Day 3 4773.590 4761.978 4521.899
Day 4 5189.860 5170.119 4761.978
Day 5 5295.800 5290.002 5170.119
Day 6 5266.550 5267.632 5290.002
Day 7 5168.450 5173.026 5267.632
Day 1 5019.560 5026.640 5173.026
Day 2 4729.270 4742.990 5026.640
Day 3 5047.740 5033.680 4742.990
Day 4 5033.680 5033.680 5033.680
Day 5 4924.390 4929.432 5033.680
Day 6 5058.370 5052.421 4929.432
Day 7 5173.945 5168.338 5052.421
Day 1 5093.850 5097.287 5168.338
Day 2 4919.940 4928.122 5097.287
Day 3 5014.510 5010.524 4928.122
Day 4 4882.635 4888.535 5010.524
Day 5 4462.110 4481.784 4888.535
Day 6 4673.280 4664.445 4481.784
Day 7 4677.280 4676.688 4664.445
Day 1 4405.905 4418.398 4676.688
Day 2 4898.123 4875.990 4418.398
Day 3 5070.050 5061.097 4875.990
Day 4 5235.640 5227.587 5061.097
Day 5 5070.050 5077.318 5227.587
Day 6 5207.840 5201.818 5077.318
Day 7 4545.480 4575.761 5201.818
Day 1 4534.800 4536.690 4575.761
Day 2 4469.730 4472.819 4536.690
Day 3 4449.730 4450.795 4472.819
Day 4 4429.730 4430.702 4450.795
Day 5 4409.730 4410.698 4430.702
Day 6 4032.830 4050.263 4410.698
Day 7 4393.800 4377.951 4050.263
Day 1 4120.960 4132.817 4377.951
Day 2 4014.550 4020.006 4132.817
Day 3 3660.450 3677.039 4020.006
Day 4 3559.400 3564.827 3677.039
Day 5 3328.000 3338.926 3564.827
Day 6 8205.770 7981.233 3338.926
Day 7 8319.150 8303.560 7981.233
Day 1 8420.050 8414.676 8303.560
Day 2 8528.720 8523.458 8414.676
Day 3 8556.130 8554.623 8523.458
Day 4 8519.910 8521.512 8554.623
Day 5 8592.980 8589.683 8521.512
Day 6 8566.880 8567.932 8589.683
Day 7 8932.467 8915.649 8567.932
Day 1 8737.930 8746.129 8915.649
Day 2 8842.220 8837.787 8746.129
Day 3 8930.730 8926.442 8837.787
Day 4 8790.680 8796.944 8926.442
Day 5 8726.910 8730.141 8796.944
Day 6 8848.900 8843.421 8730.141
Day 7 8601.400 8612.566 8843.421
Day 1 8558.460 8560.956 8612.566
Day 2 8311.270 8322.790 8560.956
Day 3 8708.030 8690.257 8322.790
Day 4 8805.530 8800.212 8690.257
Day 5 9007.733 8998.159 8800.212
Day 6 8578.730 8598.081 8998.159
Day 7 8466.983 8473.031 8598.081
Day 1 8559.180 8555.205 8473.031
Day 2 8170.080 8187.848 8555.205
Day 3 8195.670 8195.309 8187.848
Day 4 7510.020 7541.637 8195.309
Day 5 7829.325 7816.052 7541.637
Day 6 8418.360 8390.572 7816.052
Day 7 8822.550 8802.620 8390.572
Day 1 8576.950 8587.362 8802.620
Day 2 8228.560 8245.114 8587.362
Day 3 8309.060 8306.110 8245.114
Day 4 8061.060 8072.366 8306.110
Day 5 7900.920 7908.830 8072.366
Day 6 7501.700 7520.483 7908.830
Day 7 7595.280 7591.829 7520.483
Day 1 7012.340 7039.075 7591.829
Day 2 7602.180 7576.201 7039.075
Day 3 7367.480 7377.110 7576.201
Day 4 7155.470 7165.696 7377.110
Day 5 7487.520 7472.672 7165.696
Day 6 7505.680 7504.157 7472.672
Day 7 7360.450 7367.080 7504.157
Day 1 7424.350 7421.708 7367.080
Day 2 7400.960 7401.917 7421.708
Day 3 7273.790 7279.701 7401.917
Day 4 7218.380 7221.209 7279.701
Day 5 7010.250 7019.983 7221.209
Day 6 7071.030 7068.675 7019.983
Day 7 6506.160 6532.112 7068.675
Day 1 6904.060 6886.900 6532.112
Day 2 6979.770 6975.485 6886.900
Day 3 6939.770 6941.418 6975.485
Day 4 6836.180 6841.035 6941.418
Day 5 6835.690 6835.937 6841.035
Day 6 6634.080 6643.393 6835.937
Day 7 9088.470 8975.664 6643.393
Day 1 8671.750 8685.771 8975.664
Day 2 8900.790 8890.870 8685.771
Day 3 8993.567 8988.829 8890.870
Day 4 9311.650 9296.756 8988.829
Day 5 9650.400 9634.084 9296.756
Day 6 9502.070 9508.161 9634.084
Day 7 9701.060 9692.160 9508.161
Day 1 9571.000 9576.590 9692.160
Day 2 9812.060 9801.196 9576.590
Day 3 9667.480 9673.649 9801.196
Day 4 10020.490 10004.488 9673.649
Day 5 10062.120 10059.461 10004.488
Day 6 10552.120 10529.391 10059.461
Day 7 10717.180 10708.516 10529.391
Day 1 10437.960 10450.442 10708.516
Day 2 10234.360 10244.329 10450.442
Day 3 11601.760 11539.133 10244.329
Day 4 13008.220 12940.442 11539.133
Day 5 13332.090 13314.021 12940.442
Day 6 13312.090 13312.179 13314.021
Day 7 13292.090 13293.017 13312.179
Day 1 13272.090 13273.055 13293.017
Day 2 13925.800 13895.685 13273.055
Day 3 13030.760 13070.664 13895.685
Day 4 13011.700 13014.420 13070.664
Day 5 13120.010 13115.139 13014.420
Day 6 13028.240 13032.249 13115.139
Day 7 12266.120 12301.466 13032.249
Day 1 12825.900 12801.705 12301.466
Day 2 12625.000 12633.152 12801.705
Day 3 12788.300 12781.142 12633.152
Day 4 12373.270 12392.088 12781.142
Day 5 11728.560 11759.173 12392.088
Day 6 12344.820 12317.801 11759.173
Day 7 11960.400 11976.889 12317.801
Day 1 11930.400 11932.545 11976.889
Day 2 11900.400 11901.883 11932.545
Day 3 11870.400 11871.853 11901.883
Day 4 11840.400 11841.851 11871.853
Day 5 11810.400 11811.851 11841.851
Day 6 11780.400 11781.851 11811.851
Day 7 11750.400 11751.851 11781.851
Day 1 11720.400 11721.851 11751.851
Day 2 11690.400 11691.851 11721.851
Day 3 11660.400 11661.851 11691.851
Day 4 11630.400 11631.851 11661.851
Day 5 11600.400 11601.851 11631.851
Day 6 11570.400 11571.851 11601.851
Day 7 11540.400 11541.851 11571.851
Day 1 11510.400 11511.851 11541.851
Day 2 11480.400 11481.851 11511.851
Day 3 11450.400 11451.851 11481.851
Day 4 11420.400 11421.851 11451.851
Day 5 11390.400 11391.851 11421.851
Day 6 11360.400 11361.851 11391.851
Day 7 11330.400 11331.851 11361.851
Day 1 11300.400 11301.851 11331.851
Day 2 11270.400 11271.851 11301.851
Day 3 11240.400 11241.851 11271.851
Day 4 11210.400 11211.851 11241.851
Day 5 11180.400 11181.851 11211.851
Day 6 11150.400 11151.851 11181.851
Day 7 11120.400 11121.851 11151.851
Day 1 11090.400 11091.851 11121.851
Day 2 11060.400 11061.851 11091.851
Day 3 11030.400 11031.851 11061.851
Day 4 11000.400 11001.851 11031.851
Day 5 10970.400 10971.851 11001.851
Day 6 10940.400 10941.851 10971.851
Day 7 10910.400 10911.851 10941.851
Day 1 10880.400 10881.851 10911.851
Day 2 10850.400 10851.851 10881.851
Day 3 10107.070 10141.431 10851.851
Day 4 10214.640 10211.262 10141.431
Day 5 10181.460 10182.835 10211.262
Day 6 10527.310 10511.417 10182.835
Day 7 10185.860 10200.880 10511.417
Day 1 10013.150 10021.811 10200.880
Day 2 11217.120 11161.973 10021.811
Day 3 11284.990 11279.314 11161.973
Day 4 11122.770 11129.992 11279.314
Day 5 10012.040 10063.618 11129.992
Day 6 10152.210 10148.123 10063.618
Day 7 10014.710 10020.865 10148.123
Day 1 10086.230 10083.214 10020.865
Day 2 9905.350 9913.556 10083.214
Day 3 10039.820 10033.995 9913.556
Day 4 9639.430 9657.634 10033.995
Day 5 10647.410 10601.746 9657.634
Day 6 9992.270 10020.389 10601.746
Day 7 9846.940 9854.942 10020.389
Day 1 9675.300 9683.588 9854.942
Day 2 9991.450 9977.246 9683.588
Day 3 9945.700 9947.155 9977.246
Day 4 10128.500 10120.133 9947.155
Day 5 10036.000 10039.882 10120.133
Day 6 9656.380 9674.073 10039.882
Day 7 9864.800 9856.001 9674.073
Day 1 9512.290 9528.147 9856.001
Day 2 9805.800 9792.990 9528.147
Day 3 9805.800 9805.209 9792.990
Day 4 9619.150 9627.734 9805.209
Day 5 9662.420 9660.820 9627.734
Day 6 9648.300 9648.878 9660.820
Day 7 9523.600 9529.380 9648.878
Day 1 9661.410 9655.319 9529.380
Day 2 9685.120 9683.745 9655.319
Day 3 9686.470 9686.344 9683.745
Day 4 9545.760 9552.246 9686.344
Day 5 9474.810 9478.383 9552.246
Day 6 9377.830 9382.469 9478.383
Day 7 9062.910 9077.653 9382.469
Day 1 9377.830 9363.981 9077.653
Day 2 9253.750 9258.836 9363.981
Day 3 9195.260 9198.193 9258.836
Day 4 9175.260 9176.318 9198.193
Day 5 9155.260 9156.232 9176.318
Day 6 9079.030 9082.592 9156.232
Day 7 8865.770 8875.773 9082.592
Day 1 9599.530 9566.139 8875.773
Day 2 13360.430 13185.376 9566.139
Day 3 12897.280 12910.572 13185.376
Day 4 12276.140 12305.410 12910.572
Day 5 12670.680 12653.828 12305.410
Day 6 12646.730 12647.057 12653.828
Day 7 12885.570 12874.566 12647.057
Day 1 13496.210 13467.530 12874.566
Day 2 12204.880 12263.134 13467.530
Day 3 13165.110 13123.496 12263.134
Day 4 12833.140 12846.536 13123.496
Day 5 12225.270 12253.933 12846.536
Day 6 12463.730 12454.051 12253.933
Day 7 13346.530 13305.354 12454.051
Day 1 13191.000 13196.276 13305.354
Day 2 12889.800 12903.940 13196.276
Day 3 13209.900 13195.784 12903.940
Day 4 12318.940 12359.394 13195.784
Day 5 12116.740 12127.935 12359.394
Day 6 11908.440 11918.567 12127.935
Day 7 11910.240 11910.624 11918.567
Day 1 11,911
Day 2 11,911
Day 3 11,911
Day 4 11,911
Day 5 11,911
Day 6 11,911
Day 7 11,911
Day 1 11,911
Day 2 11,911
Day 3 11,911
Day 4 11,911
Day 5 11,911
Day 6 11,911
Day 7 11,911
Day 1 11,911
Day 2 11,911
Day 3 11,911
Day 4 11,911
Day 5 11,911
Day 6 11,911
Day 7 11,911
Day 1 11,911
Day 2 11,911
Day 3 11,911
Day 4 11,911
Day 5 11,911
Day 6 11,911
Day 7 11,911
Day 1 11,911
Day 2 11,911
Day 3 11,911
Day 4 11,911
Day 5 11,911
Day 6 11,911
Day 7 11,911
 Error

100.830 Time series of OIL PRODUCTION (BLS) with forecasts superimpose

261.252
16000.000 17000.0
-184.667
111.530
14000.000 15000.0
301.606
1550.905 12000.000 13000.0
505.903
-314.230 10000.000 11000.0
657.313
169.186 8000.000 9000.00
174.746
6000.000 7000.00
-25.598
-155.971
4000.000 5000.00
-144.176
-281.352 2000.000 3000.00
-22.980
-11.060 0.000 1000.00
-10.510 1 19 37 55 73 91 109127145163181199217235253271289307325343361379397415
-10.485 Time
-10.484
280.876
334.069
-115.587
-377.063
469.854
-158.783
-225.656
-3.041
186.140
-48.742
-82.979
-917.618
824.935
-27.281
-62.069
-83.554
-126.235
-802.854
822.749
-39.852
48.951
100.928
-40.104
63.970
85.671
-13.167
 312.773
-73.820
-132.836
-50.989
22.668
54.176
-192.611
-361.416
224.026
-18.964
116.425
140.401
-25.802
51.250
78.344
-147.265
216.396
-130.906
2502.720
398.256
-111.786
-187.837
-76.276
18.691
442.232
160.023
-144.817
-88.391
-648.828
-306.204
-13.627
38.411
-508.128
1086.127
-388.620
-195.749
265.939
118.499
-174.833
-594.316
-412.872
526.414
-46.793
-128.059
102.672
147.970
-100.697
-257.106
 -31.862
-21.470
-20.991
-80.978
73.984
45.423
-293.604
-686.026
919.799
82.186
214.412
-79.158
-808.572
-504.961
995.420
73.105
8.202
4.718
-1314.042
-80.625
-23.720
222.816
632.470
147.320
101.307
-99.576
-7.764
2167.822
386.655
19.819
-443.816
379.314
-42.880
105.022
42.315
116.482
-27.516
-210.939
-255.482
-113.827
61.648
12.094
-99.162
-24.575
-21.134
-20.975
-20.968
-20.967
 -20.967
-20.967
-359.647
-335.283
-614.039
-99.039
251.691
427.882
125.681
-23.452
-99.182
-153.466
-297.370
304.750
0.000
-109.290
128.938
121.524
-74.488
-177.347
86.388
-127.889
-426.425
191.496
12.835
-270.783
479.725
194.060
174.543
-157.537
130.522
-656.338
-40.961
-66.960
-23.089
-21.065
-20.972
-377.868
343.537
-256.991
-118.267
-359.556
-117.639
-236.827
4866.844
337.917
116.490
114.044
 32.672
-34.713
71.468
-22.803
364.535
-177.719
96.091
92.943
-135.762
-70.034
118.759
-242.021
-54.106
-249.686
385.240
115.273
207.521
-419.429
-131.098
86.149
-385.125
7.822
-685.289
287.688
602.308
431.978
-225.670
-358.802
63.946
-245.050
-171.446
-407.130
74.797
-579.489
563.105
-208.721
-221.640
321.824
33.008
-143.707
57.270
-20.748
-128.127
-61.321
-210.959
51.047
-562.515
371.948
 92.870
-35.715
-105.238
-5.345
-201.857
2445.077
-303.914
215.019
102.697
322.821
353.644
-132.014
192.899
-121.160
235.470
-133.716
346.841
57.632
492.659
187.789
-270.556
-216.082
1357.431
1469.087
391.648
-1.931
-20.089
-20.927
652.745
-864.925
-58.964
105.590
-86.899
-766.129
524.434
-176.705
155.148
-407.872
-663.528
585.647
-357.401
-46.489
-32.145
-31.483
-31.453
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
 -31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-31.451
-744.781
73.209
-29.802
344.475
-325.557
-187.730
1195.309
123.017
-156.544
-1117.952
88.592
-133.413
65.365
-177.864
126.264
-394.565
989.776
-609.476
 -173.449
-179.642
307.862
-31.546
181.345
-84.133
-383.502
190.727
-343.711
277.653
12.810
-186.059
34.686
-12.520
-125.278
132.030
29.801
2.725
-140.584
-77.436
-100.553
-319.559
300.177
-110.231
-63.576
-22.933
-21.058
-77.202
-216.822
723.757
3794.291
-288.096
-634.432
365.270
-7.098
238.513
621.644
-1262.650
901.976
-290.356
-621.266
209.797
892.479
-114.354
-306.476
305.960
-876.844
-242.654
-219.495
-8.327
forecasts superimposed
17000.000

15000.000

13000.000

11000.000

9000.000 Forecast
Observation
7000.000

5000.000

3000.000

1000.000
325343361379397415
Forecasting results for OIL PRODUCTION (BL Date Observation SmLevel SmTrend
Day 1 451.780
Holt's exponential smoothing Day 2 552.610
Day 3 809.210
Smoothing constant(s) Day 4 612.490
Level 0.978 Day 5 732.540
Trend 0.048 Day 6 1029.000
Day 7 2565.990 964.803 -335.031
Estimation period Day 1 3000.340 2949.293 -224.508
Day 2 2662.770 2664.105 -227.399
MAE 275.4589 Day 3 3334.580 3315.246 -185.537
RMSE 532.6302 Day 4 3473.440 3466.038 -169.511
MAPE 4.53% Day 5 3640.380 3632.976 -153.480
Day 6 3606.720 3603.980 -147.548
Day 7 3451.930 3452.027 -147.758
Day 1 3314.950 3314.720 -147.260
Day 2 3040.250 3042.989 -153.191
Day 3 3030.250 3027.226 -146.643
Day 4 3020.250 3017.242 -140.131
Day 5 3010.250 3007.383 -133.923
Day 6 3000.250 2997.520 -128.012
Day 7 2990.250 2987.650 -122.383
Day 1 3271.610 3262.860 -103.438
Day 2 3592.720 3583.390 -83.236
Day 3 3461.720 3462.548 -85.028
Day 4 3089.990 3096.182 -98.433
Day 5 3577.240 3564.762 -71.415
Day 6 3396.780 3398.859 -75.918
Day 7 3178.450 3181.561 -82.654
Day 1 3185.820 3183.948 -78.602
Day 2 3372.100 3366.356 -66.165
Day 3 3314.770 3314.456 -65.486
Day 4 3234.040 3234.362 -66.182
Day 5 2320.250 2338.509 -105.715
Day 6 3187.520 3166.961 -61.202
Day 7 3122.180 3121.826 -60.437
Day 1 3061.370 3061.370 -60.438
Day 2 2980.680 2981.116 -61.382
Day 3 2858.300 2859.623 -64.246
Day 4 2061.270 2077.078 -98.473
Day 5 2921.060 2900.766 -54.532
Day 6 2843.250 2843.314 -54.671
Day 7 2894.040 2891.770 -49.757
Day 1 2992.710 2989.465 -42.731
Day 2 2947.950 2947.924 -42.675
Day 3 3013.770 3011.433 -37.615
Day 4 3096.490 3093.848 -31.896
Day 5 3079.370 3078.995 -31.084
Day 6 3392.750 3385.324 -15.006
Day 7 3304.500 3305.917 -18.075
Day 1 3175.070 3177.498 -23.333
Day 2 3130.210 3130.726 -24.450
Day 3 3155.230 3154.176 -22.167
Day 4 3208.360 3206.716 -18.607
Day 5 3013.250 3017.015 -26.760
Day 6 2660.720 2667.816 -42.124
Day 7 2901.420 2895.483 -29.269
Day 1 2872.120 2871.993 -28.993
Day 2 2989.420 2986.267 -22.167
Day 3 3124.450 3120.997 -14.691
Day 4 3092.170 3092.474 -15.350
Day 5 3144.610 3143.157 -12.203
Day 6 3220.590 3218.660 -8.024
Day 7 3069.710 3072.745 -14.595
Day 1 3292.900 3287.845 -3.650
Day 2 3152.010 3154.856 -9.813
Day 3 5660.770 5606.598 107.479
Day 4 5943.560 5938.618 118.178
Day 5 5813.400 5818.641 106.830
Day 6 5630.720 5637.067 93.088
Day 7 5563.110 5566.707 85.300
Day 1 5585.320 5586.756 82.191
Day 2 6026.690 6018.987 98.870
Day 3 6166.310 6165.267 101.129
Day 4 6014.110 6019.543 89.366
Day 5 5932.400 5936.201 81.137
Day 6 5287.650 5303.363 47.117
Day 7 5011.380 5018.682 31.307
Day 1 5011.880 5012.701 29.530
Day 2 5050.920 5050.733 29.935
Day 3 4541.020 4552.640 4.775
Day 4 5650.590 5627.050 55.742
Day 5 5211.860 5222.001 33.786
Day 6 5034.040 5038.815 23.447
Day 7 5309.010 5303.697 34.951
Day 1 5415.240 5413.591 38.522
Day 2 5234.940 5239.616 28.397
Day 3 4648.690 4662.026 -0.478
Day 4 4263.238 4271.815 -19.048
Day 5 4808.700 4796.729 6.871
Day 6 4737.620 4739.041 3.795
Day 7 4611.720 4614.543 -2.318
Day 1 4720.300 4717.973 2.721
Day 2 4863.533 4860.457 9.380
Day 3 4756.010 4758.461 4.073
Day 4 4503.550 4509.127 -8.001
Day 5 4483.550 4483.928 -8.821
Day 6 4463.550 4463.799 -9.360
Day 7 4443.550 4443.784 -9.867
Day 1 4363.540 4365.055 -13.149
Day 2 4441.260 4439.336 -8.983
Day 3 4483.270 4482.131 -6.516
Day 4 4187.570 4193.773 -19.945
Day 5 3515.090 3529.275 -50.658
Day 6 4466.540 4445.267 -4.597
Day 7 4506.290 4504.877 -1.538
Day 1 4716.910 4712.311 8.419
Day 2 4627.860 4629.859 4.089
Day 3 3822.940 3840.404 -33.722
Day 4 3355.283 3365.003 -54.768
Day 5 4374.000 4351.093 -5.172
Day 6 4401.180 4399.990 -2.596
Day 7 4406.010 4405.824 -2.194
Day 1 4410.350 4410.205 -1.881
Day 2 3096.090 3124.347 -63.061
Day 3 3076.090 3075.771 -62.371
Day 4 3056.090 3055.171 -60.381
Day 5 3280.000 3273.858 -47.083
Day 6 3902.190 3887.646 -15.593
Day 7 4020.330 4017.137 -8.680
Day 1 4114.840 4112.549 -3.720
Day 2 4010.590 4012.705 -8.300
Day 3 4007.420 4007.355 -8.160
Day 4 6175.600 6128.735 93.311
Day 5 6462.240 6457.068 104.510
Day 6 6464.220 6466.316 99.971
Day 7 6019.490 6031.264 74.477
Day 1 6419.280 6412.528 89.096
Day 2 6358.900 6361.973 82.441
Day 3 6465.900 6465.437 83.443
Day 4 6503.370 6504.350 81.321
Day 5 6617.900 6617.206 82.824
Day 6 6585.010 6587.487 77.461
Day 7 6375.340 6381.576 63.959
Day 1 6129.590 6136.393 49.228
Day 2 6027.550 6030.954 41.858
Day 3 6094.450 6093.984 42.867
Day 4 6103.700 6104.414 41.322
Day 5 6003.980 6007.032 34.713
Day 6 5983.980 5985.224 32.019
Day 7 5963.980 5965.127 29.536
Day 1 5943.980 5945.071 27.173
Day 2 5923.980 5925.019 24.923
Day 3 5903.980 5904.970 22.780
Day 4 5883.980 5884.923 20.739
Day 5 5863.980 5864.878 18.796
Day 6 5505.300 5513.448 1.155
Day 7 5186.610 5193.673 -14.137
Day 1 4588.040 4600.777 -41.715
Day 2 4517.330 4518.229 -43.660
Day 3 4773.590 4767.151 -29.719
Day 4 5189.860 5180.118 -8.625
Day 5 5295.800 5293.123 -2.830
Day 6 5266.550 5267.061 -3.937
Day 7 5168.450 5170.489 -8.351
Day 1 5019.560 5022.630 -14.998
Day 2 4729.270 4735.264 -27.976
Day 3 5047.740 5040.409 -12.103
Day 4 5033.680 5033.564 -11.853
Day 5 4924.390 4926.486 -16.390
Day 6 5058.370 5055.177 -9.477
Day 7 5173.945 5171.183 -3.498
Day 1 5093.850 5095.440 -6.940
Day 2 4919.940 4923.570 -14.799
Day 3 5014.510 5012.233 -9.869
Day 4 4882.635 4885.213 -15.451
Day 5 4462.110 4470.888 -34.458
Day 6 4673.280 4668.180 -23.415
Day 7 4677.280 4676.580 -21.899
Day 1 4405.905 4411.262 -33.498
Day 2 4898.123 4886.918 -9.237
Day 3 5070.050 5065.908 -0.268
Day 4 5235.640 5231.979 7.658
Day 5 5070.050 5073.702 -0.249
Day 6 5207.840 5204.946 6.017
Day 7 4545.480 4559.810 -25.010
Day 1 4534.800 4534.800 -25.010
Day 2 4469.730 4470.593 -26.878
Day 3 4449.730 4449.600 -26.597
Day 4 4429.730 4429.585 -26.284
Day 5 4409.730 4409.592 -25.984
Day 6 4032.830 4040.383 -42.338
Day 7 4393.800 4385.278 -23.887
Day 1 4120.960 4126.137 -35.097
Day 2 4014.550 4016.197 -38.663
Day 3 3660.450 3667.278 -53.447
Day 4 3559.400 3560.572 -55.984
Day 5 3328.000 3331.803 -64.217
Day 6 8205.770 8099.434 166.017
Day 7 8319.150 8317.994 168.521
Day 1 8420.050 8421.481 165.422
Day 2 8528.720 8529.973 162.709
Day 3 8556.130 8559.070 156.343
Day 4 8519.910 8524.120 147.228
Day 5 8592.980 8594.668 143.574
Day 6 8566.880 8570.570 135.585
Day 7 8932.467 8927.594 146.136
Day 1 8737.930 8745.161 130.480
Day 2 8842.220 8842.940 128.922
Day 3 8930.730 8931.616 127.004
Day 4 8790.680 8796.450 114.512
Day 5 8726.910 8730.873 105.931
Day 6 8848.900 8848.640 106.495
Day 7 8601.400 8609.017 90.002
Day 1 8558.460 8561.487 83.449
Day 2 8311.270 8318.455 67.892
Day 3 8708.030 8701.103 82.890
Day 4 8805.530 8805.066 83.894
Day 5 9007.733 9005.175 89.432
Day 6 8578.730 8589.839 65.380
Day 7 8466.983 8471.036 56.604
Day 1 8559.180 8558.501 58.074
Day 2 8170.080 8179.695 37.257
Day 3 8195.670 8196.128 36.265
Day 4 7510.020 7525.575 2.586
Day 5 7829.325 7822.840 16.627
Day 6 8418.360 8405.894 43.617
Day 7 8822.550 8814.517 61.009
Day 1 8576.950 8583.379 47.089
Day 2 8228.560 8237.214 28.350
Day 3 8309.060 8308.123 30.378
Day 4 8061.060 8067.034 17.443
Day 5 7900.920 7904.873 8.885
Day 6 7501.700 7510.573 -10.327
Day 7 7595.280 7593.234 -5.896
Day 1 7012.340 7024.722 -32.704
Day 2 7602.180 7589.041 -4.256
Day 3 7367.480 7372.159 -14.388
Day 4 7155.470 7159.826 -23.820
Day 5 7487.520 7479.951 -7.431
Day 6 7505.680 7504.966 -5.885
Day 7 7360.450 7363.435 -12.348
Day 1 7424.350 7422.772 -8.933
Day 2 7400.960 7401.237 -9.533
Day 3 7273.790 7276.329 -15.031
Day 4 7218.380 7219.304 -17.032
Day 5 7010.250 7014.385 -25.984
Day 6 7071.030 7069.251 -22.132
Day 7 6506.160 6517.809 -47.353
Day 1 6904.060 6894.723 -27.137
Day 2 6979.770 6977.354 -21.907
Day 3 6939.770 6940.108 -22.638
Day 4 6836.180 6837.930 -26.428
Day 5 6835.690 6835.169 -25.300
Day 6 6634.080 6637.865 -33.496
Day 7 9088.470 9034.979 82.321
Day 1 8671.750 8681.344 61.548
Day 2 8900.790 8897.390 68.910
Day 3 8993.567 8992.980 70.181
Day 4 9311.650 9306.299 81.767
Day 5 9650.400 9644.751 93.997
Day 6 9502.070 9507.167 82.963
Day 7 9701.060 9698.671 88.135
Day 1 9571.000 9575.647 78.073
Day 2 9812.060 9808.650 85.455
Day 3 9667.480 9672.360 74.889
Day 4 10020.490 10014.606 87.629
Day 5 10062.120 10062.984 85.758
Day 6 10552.120 10543.434 104.565
Day 7 10717.180 10715.690 107.791
Day 1 10437.960 10446.262 89.816
Day 2 10234.360 10240.857 75.749
Day 3 11601.760 11574.086 135.667
Day 4 13008.220 12980.260 196.206
Day 5 13332.090 13328.739 203.462
Day 6 13312.090 13316.830 193.200
Day 7 13292.090 13296.783 183.039
Day 1 13272.090 13276.563 173.354
Day 2 13925.800 13915.553 195.541
Day 3 13030.760 13054.023 145.172
Day 4 13011.700 13015.737 136.430
Day 5 13120.010 13120.702 134.931
Day 6 13028.240 13033.137 124.329
Day 7 12266.120 12285.314 82.772
Day 1 12825.900 12816.042 104.117
Day 2 12625.000 12631.356 90.355
Day 3 12788.300 12786.866 93.460
Day 4 12373.270 12384.189 69.819
Day 5 11728.560 11744.181 35.996
Day 6 12344.820 12332.661 62.322
Day 7 11960.400 11969.758 42.060
Day 1 11930.400 11932.153 38.264
Day 2 11900.400 11901.908 35.000
Day 3 11870.400 11871.832 31.899
Day 4 11840.400 11841.764 28.946
Day 5 11810.400 11811.699 26.134
Day 6 11780.400 11781.637 23.457
Day 7 11750.400 11751.578 20.907
Day 1 11720.400 11721.522 18.478
Day 2 11690.400 11691.468 16.166
Day 3 11660.400 11661.417 13.964
Day 4 11630.400 11631.369 11.866
Day 5 11600.400 11601.322 9.869
Day 6 11570.400 11571.278 7.968
Day 7 11540.400 11541.236 6.156
Day 1 11510.400 11511.197 4.432
Day 2 11480.400 11481.159 2.789
Day 3 11450.400 11451.122 1.225
Day 4 11420.400 11421.088 -0.264
Day 5 11390.400 11391.055 -1.683
Day 6 11360.400 11361.024 -3.034
Day 7 11330.400 11330.994 -4.320
Day 1 11300.400 11300.966 -5.545
Day 2 11270.400 11270.939 -6.712
Day 3 11240.400 11240.913 -7.822
Day 4 11210.400 11210.889 -8.880
Day 5 11180.400 11180.865 -9.888
Day 6 11150.400 11150.843 -10.847
Day 7 11120.400 11120.822 -11.761
Day 1 11090.400 11090.802 -12.631
Day 2 11060.400 11060.783 -13.459
Day 3 11030.400 11030.764 -14.248
Day 4 11000.400 11000.747 -15.000
Day 5 10970.400 10970.730 -15.715
Day 6 10940.400 10940.715 -16.397
Day 7 10910.400 10910.700 -17.046
Day 1 10880.400 10880.685 -17.664
Day 2 10850.400 10850.672 -18.252
Day 3 10107.070 10122.689 -52.070
Day 4 10214.640 10211.539 -45.356
Day 5 10181.460 10181.131 -44.643
Day 6 10527.310 10518.894 -26.422
Day 7 10185.860 10192.462 -40.717
Day 1 10013.150 10016.134 -47.179
Day 2 11217.120 11190.243 11.015
Day 3 11284.990 11283.187 14.919
Day 4 11122.770 11126.546 6.744
Day 5 10012.040 10036.184 -45.533
Day 6 10152.210 10148.731 -38.000
Day 7 10014.710 10016.778 -42.477
Day 1 10086.230 10083.820 -37.258
Day 2 9905.350 9908.391 -43.842
Day 3 10039.820 10036.046 -35.670
Day 4 9639.430 9647.202 -52.499
Day 5 10647.410 10624.742 -3.418
Day 6 9992.270 10005.816 -32.747
Day 7 9846.940 9849.656 -38.627
Day 1 9675.300 9678.223 -44.956
Day 2 9991.450 9983.737 -28.256
Day 3 9945.700 9945.911 -28.712
Day 4 10128.500 10123.950 -18.860
Day 5 10036.000 10037.488 -22.081
Day 6 9656.380 9664.111 -38.820
Day 7 9864.800 9859.643 -27.654
Day 1 9512.290 9519.174 -42.559
Day 2 9805.800 9798.712 -27.211
Day 3 9805.800 9805.061 -25.612
Day 4 9619.150 9622.602 -33.086
Day 5 9662.420 9660.850 -29.687
Day 6 9648.300 9647.931 -28.888
Day 7 9523.600 9525.655 -33.338
Day 1 9661.410 9657.769 -25.454
Day 2 9685.120 9683.983 -22.992
Day 3 9686.470 9685.921 -21.804
Day 4 9545.760 9548.309 -27.322
Day 5 9474.810 9475.804 -29.475
Day 6 9377.830 9379.305 -32.669
Day 7 9062.910 9069.020 -45.897
Day 1 9377.830 9370.192 -29.360
Day 2 9253.750 9255.625 -33.420
Day 3 9195.260 9195.840 -34.676
Day 4 9175.260 9174.956 -34.019
Day 5 9155.260 9154.952 -33.351
Day 6 9079.030 9079.947 -35.336
Day 7 8865.770 8869.621 -43.674
Day 1 9599.530 9582.872 -7.607
Day 2 13360.430 13278.922 168.870
Day 3 12897.280 12909.134 143.203
Day 4 12276.140 12292.854 107.014
Day 5 12670.680 12664.848 119.641
Day 6 12646.730 12649.696 113.218
Day 7 12885.570 12882.929 118.936
Day 1 13496.210 13485.565 141.984
Day 2 12204.880 12235.515 75.655
Day 3 13165.110 13146.722 115.468
Day 4 12833.140 12842.379 95.465
Day 5 12225.270 12240.614 62.242
Day 6 12463.730 12460.266 69.743
Day 7 13346.530 13328.947 107.811
Day 1 13191.000 13196.292 96.353
Day 2 12889.800 12898.475 77.571
Day 3 13209.900 13204.864 88.474
Day 4 12318.940 12339.922 43.045
Day 5 12116.740 12122.473 30.632
Day 6 11908.440 11913.708 19.225
Day 7 11910.240 11910.729 18.167
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 1
Day 2
Forecast Error

Time series of OIL PRODUCTION (BLS) with forecast

16000.000

14000.000

629.771 2370.569 12000.000

2724.786 -62.016
2436.706 897.874 10000.000
3129.709 343.731
8000.000
3296.527 343.853
3479.496 127.224 6000.000
3456.432 -4.502
3304.269 10.681 4000.000
3167.460 -127.210
2889.798 140.452 2000.000
2880.583 139.667
2877.112 133.138 0.000
Day 1Day 5Day 2Day 6Day 3Day 7Day 4Day 1Day 5Day 2Day 6Day 3Day 7Day 4Day 1D
2873.460 126.790
2869.508 120.742 Time
2865.267 406.343
3159.422 433.298
3500.154 -38.434
3377.520 -287.530
2997.748 579.492
3493.346 -96.566
3322.942 -144.492
3098.907 86.913
3105.346 266.754
3300.191 14.579
3248.971 -14.931
3168.180 -847.930
2232.794 954.726
3105.759 16.421
3061.390 -0.020
3000.933 -20.253
2919.734 -61.434
2795.377 -734.107
1978.605 942.455
2846.233 -2.983
2788.643 105.397
2842.013 150.697
2946.733 1.217
2905.249 108.521
2973.818 122.672
3061.953 17.417
3047.911 344.839
3370.318 -65.818
3287.842 -112.772
3154.166 -23.956
3106.276 48.954
3132.009 76.351
3188.108 -174.858
2990.255 -329.535
2625.692 275.728
2866.214 5.906
2843.000 146.420
2964.100 160.350
3106.307 -14.137
3077.125 67.485
3130.954 89.636
3210.636 -140.926
3058.150 234.750
3284.195 -132.185
3145.044 2515.726
5714.077 229.483
6056.797 -243.397
5925.471 -294.751
5730.155 -167.045
5652.007 -66.687
5668.947 357.743
6117.856 48.454
6266.395 -252.285
6108.909 -176.509
6017.338 -729.688
5350.479 -339.099
5049.989 -38.109
5042.230 8.690
5080.668 -539.648
4557.415 1093.175
5682.792 -470.932
5255.787 -221.747
5062.262 246.748
5338.648 76.592
5452.113 -217.173
5268.014 -619.324
4661.548 -398.311
4252.766 555.934
4803.600 -65.980
4742.836 -131.116
4612.225 108.075
4720.693 142.840
4869.838 -113.828
4762.534 -258.984
4501.125 -17.575
4475.108 -11.558
4454.439 -10.889
4433.917 -70.377
4351.907 89.353
4430.353 52.917
4475.615 -288.045
4173.827 -658.737
3478.617 987.923
4440.669 65.621
4503.339 213.571
4720.731 -92.871
4633.949 -811.009
3806.681 -451.398
3310.235 1063.765
4345.922 55.258
4397.395 8.615
4403.630 6.719
4408.324 -1312.234
3061.286 14.804
3013.400 42.690
2994.790 285.210
3226.775 675.415
3872.053 148.277
4008.457 106.383
4108.829 -98.239
4004.405 3.015
3999.195 2176.405
6222.046 240.194
6561.578 -97.358
6566.287 -546.797
6105.742 313.538
6501.624 -142.724
6444.415 21.485
6548.880 -45.510
6585.671 32.229
6700.030 -115.020
6664.948 -289.608
6445.535 -315.945
6185.622 -158.072
6072.812 21.638
6136.851 -33.151
6145.736 -141.756
6041.745 -57.765
6017.243 -53.263
5994.663 -50.683
5972.244 -48.264
5949.942 -45.962
5927.750 -43.770
5905.662 -41.682
5883.673 -378.373
5514.603 -327.993
5179.536 -591.496
4559.062 -41.732
4474.568 299.022
4737.432 452.428
5171.492 124.308
5290.294 -23.744
5263.125 -94.675
5162.138 -142.578
5007.632 -278.362
4707.288 340.452
5028.306 5.374
5021.711 -97.321
4910.095 148.275
5045.700 128.245
5167.685 -73.835
5088.499 -168.559
4908.770 105.740
5002.364 -119.729
4869.762 -407.652
4436.431 236.849
4644.765 32.515
4654.681 -248.776
4377.764 520.359
4877.681 192.369
5065.640 170.000
5239.637 -169.587
5073.453 134.387
5210.963 -665.483
4534.800 0.000
4509.790 -40.060
4443.715 6.015
4423.003 6.727
4403.301 6.429
4383.608 -350.778
3998.045 395.755
4361.391 -240.431
4091.041 -76.491
3977.534 -317.084
3613.831 -54.431
3504.588 -176.588
3267.585 4938.185
8265.451 53.699
8486.515 -66.465
8586.903 -58.183
8692.682 -136.552
8715.413 -195.503
8671.348 -78.368
8738.242 -171.362
8706.155 226.312
9073.730 -335.800
8875.641 -33.421
8971.861 -41.131
9058.620 -267.940
8910.962 -184.052
8836.804 12.096
8955.134 -353.734
8699.020 -140.560
8644.936 -333.666
8386.347 321.683
8783.993 21.537
8888.961 118.772
9094.607 -515.877
8655.219 -188.236
8527.640 31.540
8616.575 -446.495
8216.952 -21.282
8232.393 -722.373
7528.161 301.164
7839.467 578.893
8449.511 373.039
8875.526 -298.576
8630.468 -401.908
8265.565 43.495
8338.502 -277.442
8084.477 -183.557
7913.757 -412.057
7500.246 95.034
7587.338 -574.998
6992.017 610.163
7584.785 -217.305
7357.771 -202.301
7136.006 351.514
7472.520 33.160
7499.081 -138.631
7351.087 73.263
7413.840 -12.880
7391.704 -117.914
7261.298 -42.918
7202.272 -192.022
6988.400 82.630
7047.119 -540.959
6470.455 433.605
 6867.586 112.184
6955.447 -15.677
6917.470 -81.290
6811.503 24.187
6809.869 -175.789
6604.369 2484.101
9117.300 -445.550
8742.892 157.898
8966.300 27.267
9063.161 248.489
9388.066 262.334
9738.748 -236.678
9590.129 110.931
9786.806 -215.806
9653.720 158.340
9894.106 -226.626
9747.249 273.241
10102.235 -40.115
10148.742 403.378
10647.999 69.181
10823.481 -385.521
10536.078 -301.718
10316.606 1285.154
11709.754 1298.466
13176.466 155.624
13532.201 -220.111
13510.029 -217.939
13479.822 -207.732
13449.917 475.883
14111.093 -1080.333
13199.195 -187.495
13152.168 -32.158
13255.634 -227.394
13157.466 -891.346
12368.085 457.815
12920.158 -295.158
12721.711 66.589
12880.326 -507.056
12454.008 -725.448
11780.178 564.642
12394.983 -434.583
12011.818 -81.418
11970.417 -70.017
11936.907 -66.507
11903.731 -63.331
11870.710 -60.310
11837.833 -57.433
11805.093 -54.693
11772.484 -52.084
11740.000 -49.600
11707.634 -47.234
11675.381 -44.981
11643.235 -42.835
11611.192 -40.792
11579.246 -38.846
11547.393 -36.993
11515.628 -35.228
11483.948 -33.548
11452.347 -31.947
11420.824 -30.424
11389.372 -28.972
11357.990 -27.590
11326.674 -26.274
11295.421 -25.021
11264.227 -23.827
11233.091 -22.691
11202.008 -21.608
11170.977 -20.577
11139.996 -19.596
11109.061 -18.661
11078.171 -17.771
11047.323 -16.923
11016.516 -16.116
10985.747 -15.347
10955.015 -14.615
10924.318 -13.918
10893.654 -13.254
10863.022 -12.622
10832.420 -725.350
10070.619 144.021
10166.183 15.277
10136.488 390.822
10492.472 -306.612
10151.745 -138.595
9968.955 1248.165
11201.257 83.733
11298.106 -175.336
11133.289 -1121.249
9990.652 161.558
10110.731 -96.021
9974.301 111.929
10046.561 -141.211
9864.549 175.271
10000.375 -360.945
9594.703 1052.707
10621.323 -629.053
 9973.069 -126.129
9811.029 -135.729
9633.267 358.183
9955.481 -9.781
9917.199 211.301
10105.090 -69.090
10015.406 -359.026
9625.291 239.509
9831.989 -319.699
9476.615 329.185
9771.500 34.300
9779.449 -160.299
9589.516 72.904
9631.163 17.137
9619.043 -95.443
9492.317 169.093
9632.315 52.805
9660.991 25.479
9664.117 -118.357
9520.986 -46.176
9446.329 -68.499
9346.636 -283.726
9023.122 354.708
9340.832 -87.082
9222.205 -26.945
9161.164 14.096
9140.938 14.322
9121.601 -42.571
9044.611 -178.841
8825.947 773.583
9575.265 3785.165
13447.792 -550.512
13052.338 -776.198
12399.869 270.811
12784.489 -137.759
12762.914 122.656
13001.865 494.345
13627.549 -1422.669
12311.170 853.940
13262.190 -429.050
12937.844 -712.574
12302.856 160.874
12530.008 816.522
13436.759 -245.759
13292.645 -402.845
12976.046 233.854
13293.339 -974.399
12382.967 -266.227
12153.105 -244.665
11932.934 -22.694
11,929
11,947
11,965
11,983
12,002
12,020
12,038
12,056
12,074
12,092
12,111
12,129
12,147
12,165
12,183
12,201
12,220
12,238
12,256
12,274
12,292
12,310
12,329
12,347
12,365
12,383
12,401
12,419
12,438
12,456 365,770
N (BLS) with forecasts superimposed
17000.000

15000.000

13000.000

11000.000

9000.000 Observation
Forecast
7000.000

5000.000

3000.000

1000.000
2Day 6Day 3Day 7Day 4Day 1Day 5Day 2
Forecasting results for OIL PRODUCTION (BL Date Observation SmLevel SmTrend
Day 1 451.780
Winters' exponential smoothing Day 2 552.610
Day 3 809.210
Smoothing constant(s) Day 4 612.490
Level 0.565 Day 5 732.540
Trend 0.050 Day 6 1029.000
Seasonality 1.000 Day 7 2565.990 964.803 335.031
Day 1 3000.340 4186.938 478.301
Estimation period Day 2 2662.770 4656.023 477.844
Day 3 3334.580 4479.227 445.358
MAE 452.2945 Day 4 3473.440 5233.684 460.697
RMSE 854.0859 Day 5 3640.380 5185.781 435.458
MAPE 8.15% Day 6 3606.720 4355.320 372.638
Day 7 3451.930 2789.091 276.423
Day 1 3314.950 3947.579 320.195
Day 2 3040.250 4860.334 349.600
Day 3 3030.250 4565.819 317.637
Day 4 3020.250 4695.436 308.306
Day 5 3010.250 4599.247 288.234
Day 6 3000.250 4172.705 252.764
Day 7 2990.250 3289.632 196.399
Day 1 3271.610 3717.752 207.898
Day 2 3592.720 4953.234 258.891
Day 3 3461.720 5214.278 258.997
Day 4 3089.990 5094.880 240.220
Day 5 3577.240 5408.826 243.878
Day 6 3396.780 5127.855 217.833
Day 7 3178.450 4300.515 165.967
Day 1 3185.820 3988.149 142.231
Day 2 3372.100 4423.573 156.780
Day 3 3314.770 4813.568 168.353
Day 4 3234.040 5180.030 178.184
Day 5 2320.250 4312.500 126.291
Day 6 3187.520 4649.724 136.759
Day 7 3122.180 4468.749 120.992
Day 1 3061.370 4161.622 99.747
Day 2 2980.680 4062.812 89.893
Day 3 2858.300 4151.572 89.837
Day 4 2061.270 3710.161 63.474
Day 5 2921.060 4709.452 109.913
Day 6 2843.250 4439.603 91.068
Day 7 2894.040 4311.092 80.172
Day 1 2992.710 4208.697 71.112
Day 2 2947.950 4131.931 63.774
Day 3 3013.770 4298.402 68.870
Day 4 3096.490 5049.101 102.705
Day 5 3079.370 5046.035 97.456
Day 6 3392.750 5230.615 101.780
Day 7 3304.500 5100.715 90.283
Day 1 3175.070 4780.707 69.922
Day 2 3130.210 4588.780 56.928
Day 3 3155.230 4563.436 52.846
Day 4 3208.360 4964.049 70.103
Day 5 3013.250 4979.624 67.397
Day 6 2660.720 4512.862 40.890
Day 7 2901.420 4511.235 38.780
Day 1 2872.120 4422.571 32.456
Day 2 2989.420 4413.967 30.418
Day 3 3124.450 4486.516 32.509
Day 4 3092.170 4668.961 39.950
Day 5 3144.610 4984.642 53.633
Day 6 3220.590 5278.050 65.531
Day 7 3069.710 5020.997 49.523
Day 1 3292.900 5070.509 49.523
Day 2 3152.010 4856.623 36.451
Day 3 5660.770 6721.938 127.207
Day 4 5943.560 8050.444 186.820
Day 5 5813.400 8789.964 214.248
Day 6 5630.720 9130.643 220.522
Day 7 5563.110 9208.823 213.458
Day 1 5585.320 8957.732 190.405
Day 2 6026.690 9226.029 194.271
Day 3 6166.310 8234.354 135.419
Day 4 6014.110 8243.285 129.142
Day 5 5932.400 8710.151 145.901
Day 6 5287.650 8696.805 137.999
Day 7 5011.380 8529.971 122.872
Day 1 5011.880 8305.325 105.627
Day 2 5050.920 8027.314 86.589
Day 3 4541.020 6955.163 29.087
Day 4 5650.590 7414.285 50.428
Day 5 5211.860 7570.709 55.688
Day 6 5034.040 7995.673 74.013
Day 7 5309.010 8616.228 101.134
Day 1 5415.240 8862.284 108.326
Day 2 5234.940 8602.718 90.070
Day 3 4648.690 7803.796 45.954
Day 4 4263.238 6574.611 -17.324
Day 5 4808.700 6799.102 -5.324
Day 6 4737.620 7207.031 15.184
Day 7 4611.720 7370.511 22.543
Day 1 4720.300 7580.680 31.853
Day 2 4863.533 7827.243 42.508
Day 3 4756.010 7934.306 45.712
Day 4 4503.550 7395.083 16.685
Day 5 4483.550 6805.583 -13.397
Day 6 4463.550 6791.011 -13.455
Day 7 4443.550 6960.804 -4.361
Day 1 4363.540 6985.435 -2.923
Day 2 4441.260 7075.856 1.709
Day 3 4483.270 7304.651 12.978
Day 4 4187.570 7068.122 0.597
Day 5 3515.090 6089.032 -48.019
Day 6 4466.540 6467.528 -26.854
Day 7 4506.290 6790.237 -9.507
Day 1 4716.910 7216.207 12.103
Day 2 4627.860 7310.182 16.166
Day 3 3822.940 6705.929 -14.622
Day 4 3355.283 6110.228 -43.457
Day 5 4374.000 6920.376 -1.098
Day 6 4401.180 6610.425 -16.425
Day 7 4406.010 6619.511 -15.159
Day 1 4410.350 6685.106 -11.151
Day 2 3096.090 5665.892 -61.176
Day 3 3076.090 5486.657 -67.034
Day 4 3056.090 5502.010 -62.946
Day 5 3280.000 5297.991 -69.946
Day 6 3902.190 5585.806 -52.193
Day 7 4020.330 5819.894 -37.986
Day 1 4114.840 6039.255 -25.216
Day 2 4010.590 6763.236 11.963
Day 3 4007.420 6985.827 22.415
Day 4 6175.600 9331.435 137.701
Day 5 6462.240 10016.839 164.880
Day 6 6464.220 9656.884 138.836
Day 7 6019.490 9184.216 108.491
Day 1 6419.280 9365.468 112.101
Day 2 6358.900 10181.728 147.045
Day 3 6465.900 10861.662 173.489
Day 4 6503.370 10352.063 139.591
Day 5 6617.900 10359.647 133.040
Day 6 6585.010 10122.241 114.657
Day 7 6375.340 9948.760 100.359
Day 1 6129.590 9423.773 69.327
Day 2 6027.550 9582.455 73.761
Day 3 6094.450 9984.897 90.071
Day 4 6103.700 9871.983 79.998
Day 5 6003.980 9639.187 64.476
Day 6 5983.980 9418.035 50.302
Day 7 5963.980 9377.044 45.772
Day 1 5943.980 9262.054 37.794
Day 2 5923.980 9366.522 41.103
Day 3 5903.980 9557.540 48.542
Day 4 5883.980 9555.509 46.032
Day 5 5863.980 9495.770 40.784
Day 6 5505.300 9043.703 16.326
Day 7 5186.610 8548.340 -9.066
Day 1 4588.040 7753.519 -48.058
Day 2 4517.330 7387.208 -63.851
Day 3 4773.590 7551.876 -52.511
Day 4 5189.860 8024.436 -26.455
Day 5 5295.800 8324.539 -10.250
Day 6 5266.550 8504.902 -0.791
Day 7 5168.450 8512.194 -0.390
Day 1 5019.560 8495.388 -1.204
Day 2 4729.270 8064.366 -22.534
Day 3 5047.740 8010.038 -24.111
Day 4 5033.680 7871.194 -29.805
Day 5 4924.390 7784.482 -32.629
Day 6 5058.370 7987.488 -20.936
Day 7 5173.945 8280.097 -5.376
Day 1 5093.850 8470.527 4.340
Day 2 4919.940 8426.611 1.946
Day 3 5014.510 8162.178 -11.273
Day 4 4882.635 7859.287 -25.744
Day 5 4462.110 7392.734 -47.619
Day 6 4673.280 7364.499 -46.657
Day 7 4677.280 7412.477 -41.961
Day 1 4405.905 7345.663 -43.194
Day 2 4898.123 7916.779 -12.710
Day 3 5070.050 8101.069 -2.934
Day 4 5235.640 8284.311 6.305
Day 5 5070.050 8352.422 9.372
Day 6 5207.840 8274.237 5.027
Day 7 4545.480 7671.236 -25.146
Day 1 4534.800 7597.744 -27.545
Day 2 4469.730 7374.717 -37.245
Day 3 4449.730 7208.837 -43.629
Day 4 4429.730 7076.981 -48.007
Day 5 4409.730 7162.168 -41.397
Day 6 4032.830 6717.518 -61.408
Day 7 4393.800 7085.222 -40.114
Day 1 4120.960 6965.562 -44.062
Day 2 4014.550 6753.168 -52.415
Day 3 3660.450 6265.165 -74.031
Day 4 3559.400 5905.903 -88.185
Day 5 3328.000 5584.567 -99.755
Day 6 8205.770 10110.676 129.800
Day 7 8319.150 12034.932 218.848
Day 1 8420.050 13372.109 274.344
Day 2 8528.720 14042.322 293.989
Day 3 8556.130 14510.534 302.634
Day 4 8519.910 14430.724 283.656
Day 5 8592.980 14547.692 275.384
Day 6 8566.880 12410.852 155.680
Day 7 8932.467 12767.571 165.656
Day 1 8737.930 13466.671 192.128
Day 2 8842.220 14167.359 217.365
Day 3 8930.730 14814.945 238.714
Day 4 8790.680 14960.778 234.105
Day 5 8726.910 14957.219 222.311
Day 6 8848.900 13845.452 156.108
Day 7 8601.400 13036.550 108.221
Day 1 8558.460 13170.380 109.492
Day 2 8311.270 13300.661 110.523
Day 3 8708.030 13995.849 139.537
Day 4 8805.530 14616.233 163.398
Day 5 9007.733 15152.079 181.881
Day 6 8578.730 14253.618 128.270
Day 7 8466.983 13506.264 84.818
Day 1 8559.180 13353.902 73.048
Day 2 8170.080 13227.844 63.167
Day 3 8195.670 13223.946 59.839
Day 4 7510.020 12821.426 36.895
Day 5 7829.325 13034.419 45.634
Day 6 8418.360 13592.805 71.079
Day 7 8822.550 13895.397 82.567
Day 1 8576.950 13640.879 65.840
Day 2 8228.560 13489.550 55.063
Day 3 8309.060 13466.772 51.200
Day 4 8061.060 13656.015 58.050
Day 5 7900.920 13397.264 42.329
Day 6 7501.700 12689.559 5.110
Day 7 7595.280 12280.782 -15.429
Day 1 7012.340 11636.305 -46.645
Day 2 7602.180 12083.148 -22.156
Day 3 7367.480 11993.008 -25.530
Day 4 7155.470 12054.756 -21.199
Day 5 7487.520 12408.167 -2.609
Day 6 7505.680 12569.898 5.546
Day 7 7360.450 12194.257 -13.370
Day 1 7424.350 12259.520 -9.468
Day 2 7400.960 11974.924 -23.121
Day 3 7273.790 11888.886 -26.243
Day 4 7218.380 12031.145 -17.881
Day 5 7010.250 11789.410 -28.990
Day 6 7071.030 11806.524 -26.702
Day 7 6506.160 11214.059 -54.777
Day 1 6904.060 11295.568 -48.014
Day 2 6979.770 11273.485 -46.728
Day 3 6939.770 11292.428 -43.469
Day 4 6836.180 11331.012 -39.397
Day 5 6835.690 11407.058 -33.668
Day 6 6634.080 11205.823 -41.984
Day 7 9088.470 13708.133 84.275
Day 1 8671.750 14015.819 95.361
Day 2 8900.790 14261.014 102.797
Day 3 8993.567 14516.751 110.386
Day 4 9311.650 15083.292 133.023
Day 5 9650.400 15718.147 157.926
Day 6 9502.070 15974.517 162.811
Day 7 9701.060 15286.484 120.588
Day 1 9571.000 15442.215 122.332
Day 2 9812.060 15653.022 126.723
Day 3 9667.480 15680.704 121.808
Day 4 10020.490 16044.997 133.841
Day 5 10062.120 16297.487 139.729
Day 6 10552.120 17173.526 176.268
Day 7 10717.180 17088.557 163.304
Day 1 10437.960 17019.618 151.779
Day 2 10234.360 16693.930 128.085
Day 3 11601.760 17950.331 184.077
Day 4 13008.220 19657.556 259.662
Day 5 13332.090 20864.931 306.691
Day 6 13312.090 21450.715 320.541
Day 7 13292.090 21445.100 304.356
Day 1 13272.090 21688.042 301.308
Day 2 13925.800 22399.688 321.671
Day 3 13030.760 21274.255 249.860
Day 4 13011.700 20471.997 197.649
Day 5 13120.010 20592.418 193.817
Day 6 13028.240 20903.296 199.626
Day 7 12266.120 20360.682 162.793
Day 1 12825.900 20769.614 175.007
Day 2 12625.000 20584.396 157.131
Day 3 12788.300 20818.902 160.971
Day 4 12373.270 20125.001 118.549
Day 5 11728.560 19206.257 67.074
Day 6 12344.820 19574.866 82.037
Day 7 11960.400 19767.870 87.544
Day 1 11930.400 19552.476 72.511
Day 2 11900.400 19499.492 66.283
Day 3 11870.400 19429.445 59.518
Day 4 11840.400 19358.575 53.048
Day 5 11810.400 19371.293 51.046
Day 6 11780.400 19002.657 30.220
Day 7 11750.400 19252.147 41.101
Day 1 11720.400 19245.237 38.719
Day 2 11690.400 19211.285 35.112
Day 3 11660.400 19155.571 30.605
Day 4 11630.400 19089.549 25.810
Day 5 11600.400 19065.330 23.328
Day 6 11570.400 18848.566 11.413
Day 7 11540.400 18887.167 12.762
Day 1 11510.400 18900.201 12.776
Day 2 11480.400 18886.527 11.463
Day 3 11450.400 18848.584 9.012
Day 4 11420.400 18793.874 5.849
Day 5 11390.400 18754.769 3.619
Day 6 11360.400 18615.988 -3.448
Day 7 11330.400 18573.502 -5.385
Day 1 11300.400 18560.917 -5.742
Day 2 11270.400 18547.193 -6.138
Day 3 11240.400 18519.488 -7.209
Day 4 11210.400 18476.109 -9.004
Day 5 11180.400 18434.258 -10.634
Day 6 11150.400 18337.842 -14.891
Day 7 11120.400 18269.990 -17.519
Day 1 11090.400 18231.851 -18.542
Day 2 11060.400 18206.693 -18.870
Day 3 11030.400 18179.724 -19.272
Day 4 11000.400 18143.240 -20.126
Day 5 10970.400 18103.271 -21.111
Day 6 10940.400 18031.466 -23.627
Day 7 10910.400 17961.000 -25.951
Day 1 10880.400 17907.677 -27.309
Day 2 10850.400 17869.425 -27.852
Day 3 10107.070 17172.513 -61.054
Day 4 10214.640 16962.122 -68.465
Day 5 10181.460 16841.490 -71.053
Day 6 10527.310 17098.397 -54.779
Day 7 10185.860 16887.959 -62.503
Day 1 10013.150 16630.353 -72.185
Day 2 11217.120 17640.756 -18.462
Day 3 11284.990 18499.337 25.060
Day 4 11122.770 18493.725 23.538
Day 5 10012.040 17411.605 -31.329
Day 6 10152.210 16876.565 -56.325
Day 7 10014.710 16698.119 -62.386
Day 1 10086.230 16701.300 -59.132
Day 2 9905.350 16040.514 -88.988
Day 3 10039.820 16237.898 -74.777
Day 4 9639.430 16086.397 -78.585
Day 5 10647.410 17425.905 -8.213
Day 6 9992.270 16961.525 -30.850
Day 7 9846.940 16641.098 -45.220
Day 1 9675.300 16270.844 -61.350
Day 2 9991.450 16192.790 -62.179
Day 3 9945.700 16105.210 -63.439
Day 4 10128.500 16528.342 -39.293
Day 5 10036.000 16452.986 -41.083
Day 6 9656.380 16400.293 -41.659
Day 7 9864.800 16535.361 -32.889
Day 1 9512.290 16216.586 -47.076
Day 2 9805.800 16012.596 -54.863
Day 3 9805.800 15913.041 -57.081
Day 4 9619.150 15766.192 -61.535
Day 5 9662.420 15781.466 -57.724
Day 6 9648.300 16098.412 -39.131
Day 7 9523.600 16005.107 -41.819
Day 1 9661.410 16250.168 -27.583
Day 2 9685.120 15992.492 -39.001
Day 3 9686.470 15821.163 -45.568
Day 4 9545.760 15702.285 -49.206
Day 5 9474.810 15552.444 -54.200
Day 6 9377.830 15582.402 -50.024
Day 7 9062.910 15361.956 -58.481
Day 1 9377.830 15568.989 -45.305
Day 2 9253.750 15386.050 -52.135
Day 3 9195.260 15155.825 -60.972
Day 4 9175.260 15093.711 -61.029
Day 5 9155.260 15029.989 -61.163
Day 6 9079.030 15035.009 -57.878
Day 7 8865.770 15005.770 -56.457
Day 1 9599.530 15507.643 -28.750
Day 2 13360.430 19286.066 160.177
Day 3 12897.280 20470.116 210.986
Day 4 12276.140 20406.213 197.345
Day 5 12670.680 20715.264 202.888
Day 6 12646.730 20932.295 203.590
Day 7 12885.570 21516.645 222.485
Day 1 13496.210 21774.989 224.264
Day 2 12204.880 19522.710 101.368
Day 3 13165.110 20342.596 137.024
Day 4 12833.140 20961.490 160.936
Day 5 12225.270 20480.652 129.089
Day 6 12463.730 20620.854 129.640
Day 7 13346.530 21618.662 172.722
Day 1 13191.000 21503.766 158.449
Day 2 12889.800 21072.129 129.167
Day 3 13209.900 20755.028 107.021
Day 4 12318.940 20443.504 86.251
Day 5 12116.740 20399.225 79.774
Day 6 11908.440 20039.874 57.983
Day 7 11910.240 19642.431 35.383
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 1
Day 2
SmSeason Forecast Error
0.468
0.573
Time series of OIL PRODUCTION (BLS) with
0.839
0.635 18000.000
0.759
16000.000
1.067
2.660 14000.000
0.717 608.662 2391.678
0.572 2672.108 -9.338 12000.000
0.744 4305.933 -971.353 10000.000
0.664 3126.296 347.144
0.702 4323.538 -683.158 8000.000
0.828 5995.271 -2388.551
6000.000
1.238 12574.478 -9122.548
0.840 2196.734 1118.216 4000.000
0.626 2440.731 599.519
0.664 3878.558 -848.308 2000.000
0.643 3241.004 -220.754
0.000
0.655 3512.590 -502.340 1 19 37 55 73 91 109127145163181199217235253271289307
0.719 4047.412 -1047.162
Time
0.909 5477.199 -2486.949
0.880 2927.369 344.241
0.725 2455.583 1137.137
0.664 3459.191 2.529
0.606 3520.581 -430.591
0.661 3491.873 85.367
0.662 4064.397 -667.617
0.739 4859.188 -1680.738
0.799 3930.491 -744.671
0.762 2995.880 376.220
0.689 3040.862 273.908
0.624 3021.481 212.559
0.538 3543.766 -1223.516
0.686 2940.333 247.187
0.699 3537.622 -415.442
0.736 3666.385 -605.015
0.734 3248.451 -267.771
0.688 2859.680 -1.380
0.556 2648.033 -586.763
0.620 2030.325 890.735
0.640 3303.815 -460.565
0.671 3165.443 -271.403
0.711 3230.299 -237.589
0.713 3139.880 -191.930
0.701 2888.685 125.085
0.613 2426.344 670.146
0.610 3195.432 -116.062
0.649 3294.041 98.709
0.648 3579.641 -275.141
0.664 3691.202 -516.132
0.682 3460.709 -330.499
0.691 3257.279 -102.049
0.646 2831.052 377.308
0.605 3072.118 -58.868
0.590 3273.665 -612.945
0.643 2950.150 -48.730
0.649 3021.858 -149.738
0.677 3038.971 -49.551
0.696 3072.916 51.534
0.662 2920.733 171.437
0.631 2849.437 295.173
0.610 2970.496 250.094
0.611 3436.747 -367.037
0.649 3292.913 -0.013
0.649 3467.612 -315.602
0.842 3407.581 2253.189
0.738 4536.067 1407.493
0.661 5196.559 616.841
0.617 5494.240 136.480
0.604 5717.064 -153.954
0.624 6119.036 -533.716
0.653 5937.257 89.433
0.749 7933.151 -1766.841
0.730 6179.317 -165.207
0.681 5537.255 395.145
0.608 5461.385 -173.735
0.588 5337.163 -325.783
0.603 5395.216 -383.336
0.629 5494.259 -443.339
0.653 6076.110 -1535.090
0.762 5095.547 555.043
0.688 5084.144 127.716
0.630 4636.842 397.198
0.616 4740.961 568.049
0.611 5260.526 154.714
0.609 5644.458 -409.518
0.596 5675.514 -1026.824
0.648 5982.467 -1719.230
0.707 4514.196 294.504
0.657 4277.332 460.288
0.626 4450.069 161.651
0.623 4517.476 202.824
0.621 4632.391 231.142
0.599 4687.980 68.030
0.609 5174.559 -671.009
0.659 5242.011 -758.461
0.657 4464.917 -1.367
0.638 4240.709 202.841
0.625 4331.603 31.937
0.628 4338.652 102.608
0.614 4242.460 240.810
0.592 4456.381 -268.811
0.577 4656.905 -1141.815
0.691 3970.596 495.944
0.664 4111.516 394.774
0.654 4235.669 481.241
0.633 4536.950 90.910
0.570 4496.586 -673.646
0.549 3964.323 -609.040
0.632 3502.239 871.761
0.666 4778.524 -377.344
0.666 4376.059 29.950
0.660 4316.968 93.382
0.546 4225.083 -1128.993
0.561 3195.157 -119.067
0.555 2976.055 80.035
0.619 3437.742 -157.742
0.699 3480.799 421.391
0.691 3683.225 337.105
0.681 3814.485 300.355
0.593 3286.332 724.258
0.574 3798.509 208.911
0.662 3892.726 2282.874
0.645 5862.367 599.873
0.669 7112.851 -648.631
0.655 6766.794 -747.304
0.685 6331.577 87.703
0.625 5620.186 738.714
0.595 5925.101 540.799
0.628 7303.129 -799.759
0.639 6768.561 -150.661
0.651 7023.698 -438.688
0.641 6709.435 -334.095
0.650 6887.868 -758.278
0.629 5928.824 98.726
0.610 5748.303 346.147
0.618 6329.294 -225.594
0.623 6357.477 -353.497
0.635 6312.705 -328.725
0.636 6067.477 -103.497
0.642 6128.967 -184.987
0.632 5849.785 74.195
0.618 5742.102 161.878
0.616 5939.297 -55.317
0.618 5980.531 -116.551
0.609 6059.284 -553.984
0.607 5762.353 -575.743
0.592 5480.132 -892.092
0.612 4873.419 -356.089
0.632 4523.858 249.732
0.647 4617.872 571.988
0.636 4939.041 356.759
0.619 5061.274 205.276
0.607 5159.775 8.675
0.591 5036.745 -17.185
0.586 5194.254 -464.984
0.630 5083.294 -35.554
0.640 5164.954 -131.274
0.633 4988.436 -64.046
0.633 4800.234 258.136
0.625 4837.146 336.799
0.601 4889.177 204.673
0.584 4970.004 -50.064
0.614 5311.481 -296.971
0.621 5212.557 -329.922
0.604 4955.425 -493.315
0.635 4651.564 21.716
0.631 4572.665 104.615
0.600 4432.346 -26.441
0.619 4263.601 634.522
0.626 4855.938 214.112
0.632 5031.021 204.619
0.607 5004.054 65.996
0.629 5306.132 -98.292
0.593 5224.223 -678.743
0.597 4586.101 -51.301
0.606 4683.694 -213.964
0.617 4592.153 -142.423
0.626 4528.373 -98.643
0.616 4266.696 143.034
0.600 4481.843 -449.013
0.620 3943.981 449.819
0.592 4204.953 -83.993
0.594 4195.041 -180.491
0.584 4136.110 -475.660
0.603 3875.248 -315.848
0.596 3581.955 -253.955
0.812 3292.781 4912.989
0.691 6350.486 1968.664
0.630 7249.571 1170.479
0.607 8112.395 416.325
0.590 8376.052 180.078
0.590 8927.676 -407.766
0.591 8768.711 -175.731
0.690 12030.329 -3463.449
0.700 8686.618 245.849
0.649 8143.698 594.232
0.624 8295.784 546.436
0.603 8481.946 448.784
0.588 8887.691 -97.011
0.583 8975.261 -248.351
0.639 10478.025 -1629.125
0.660 9795.793 -1194.393
0.650 8529.063 29.397
0.625 8288.316 22.954
0.622 8084.517 623.513
0.602 8305.694 499.836
0.594 8623.295 384.438
0.602 9800.234 -1221.504
0.627 9489.042 -1022.059
0.641 8831.843 -272.663
0.618 8390.185 -220.105
0.620 8269.490 -73.820
0.586 8002.799 -492.779
0.601 7644.121 185.204
0.619 7872.404 545.956
0.635 8565.794 256.756
0.629 8959.172 -382.222
0.610 8465.853 -237.293
0.617 8394.407 -85.347
0.590 7918.015 143.045
0.590 8237.565 -336.645
0.591 8323.472 -821.772
0.618 8060.176 -464.896
0.603 7712.063 -699.723
0.629 7069.636 532.544
0.614 7441.688 -74.208
0.594 7064.327 91.143
0.603 7096.686 390.834
0.597 7333.807 171.873
0.604 7777.519 -417.069
0.606 7340.519 83.831
0.618 7707.188 -306.228
0.612 7342.167 -68.377
0.600 7041.435 176.945
0.595 7249.222 -238.972
0.599 7022.328 48.702
0.580 7110.297 -604.137
0.611 6758.047 146.013
0.619 6951.418 28.352
0.615 6868.690 71.080
0.603 6749.089 87.091
0.599 6714.250 121.440
0.592 6811.623 -177.543
0.663 6477.024 2611.446
0.619 8430.175 241.575
0.624 8736.677 164.113
0.620 8827.290 166.277
0.617 8824.785 486.865
0.614 9118.390 532.010
0.595 9398.965 103.105
0.635 10699.022 -997.962
0.620 9532.535 38.465
0.627 9714.370 97.690
0.617 9776.030 -108.550
0.625 9755.660 264.830
0.617 9933.248 128.872
0.614 9777.295 774.825
0.627 11010.471 -293.291
0.613 10692.609 -254.649
0.613 10763.850 -529.490
0.646 10371.122 1230.638
0.662 11325.378 1682.842
0.639 12296.954 1035.136
0.621 13008.715 303.375
0.620 13653.960 -361.870
0.612 13338.722 -66.632
0.622 13480.764 445.036
0.613 14685.398 -1654.638
0.636 14243.399 -1231.699
0.637 13207.309 -87.299
0.623 12899.721 128.519
0.602 13080.001 -813.881
0.618 12559.428 266.472
0.613 13021.191 -396.191
0.614 12704.457 83.843
0.615 13334.499 -961.229
0.611 12897.736 -1169.176
0.631 12012.344 332.476
0.605 11842.134 118.266
0.610 12261.352 -330.952
0.610 12036.567 -136.167
0.611 12018.550 -148.150
0.612 11982.220 -141.820
0.610 11853.969 -43.569
0.620 12248.630 -468.230
0.610 11515.698 234.702
0.609 11772.226 -51.826
0.609 11768.860 -78.460
0.609 11758.568 -98.168
0.609 11734.955 -104.555
0.608 11654.361 -53.961
0.614 11833.715 -263.315
0.611 11511.043 29.357
0.609 11510.107 0.293
0.608 11508.874 -28.474
0.607 11503.605 -53.205
0.608 11489.081 -68.681
0.607 11438.790 -48.390
0.610 11515.043 -154.643
0.610 11372.598 -42.198
0.609 11308.158 -7.758
0.608 11278.983 -8.583
0.607 11263.577 -23.177
0.607 11249.284 -38.884
0.607 11215.692 -35.292
0.608 11243.010 -92.610
0.609 11177.556 -57.156
0.608 11112.610 -22.210
0.607 11067.512 -7.112
0.607 11039.096 -8.696
0.606 11018.875 -18.475
0.606 10991.691 -21.291
0.607 10994.932 -54.532
0.607 10960.837 -50.437
0.608 10909.856 -29.456
0.607 10862.160 -11.760
0.589 10825.229 -718.159
0.602 10374.822 -160.182
0.605 10237.386 -55.926
0.616 10175.284 352.026
0.603 10353.137 -167.277
0.602 10222.861 -209.711
0.636 10054.199 1162.921
0.610 10371.794 913.196
0.601 11155.447 -32.677
0.575 11194.542 -1182.502
0.602 10700.860 -548.650
0.600 10145.015 -130.305
0.604 10016.389 69.841
0.618 10582.154 -676.804
0.618 9730.771 309.049
0.599 9721.063 -81.633
0.611 9204.829 1442.581
0.589 10477.728 -485.458
0.592 10154.186 -307.246
0.595 10022.564 -347.264
0.617 10009.699 -18.249
0.618 9973.485 -27.785
0.613 9612.688 515.812
0.610 10074.981 -38.981
0.589 9668.480 -12.100
0.597 9679.799 185.001
0.587 9813.035 -300.745
0.612 9977.085 -171.285
0.616 9854.627 -48.827
0.610 9716.467 -97.317
0.612 9579.534 82.886
0.599 9258.032 390.268
0.595 9580.777 -57.177
0.595 9363.711 297.699
0.606 9934.393 -249.273
0.612 9830.726 -144.256
0.608 9624.887 -79.127
0.609 9583.813 -109.003
0.602 9288.600 89.230
0.590 9242.310 -179.400
0.602 9098.561 279.269
0.601 9401.208 -147.458
0.607 9388.154 -192.894
0.608 9176.489 -1.229
0.609 9158.162 -2.902
0.604 9008.567 70.463
0.591 8835.879 29.891
0.619 9004.574 594.956
0.693 9309.589 4050.841
0.630 11798.319 1098.961
0.602 12571.759 -295.619
0.612 12550.304 120.376
0.604 12631.621 15.109
0.599 12487.590 397.980
0.620 13456.941 39.269
0.625 15239.992 -3035.112
0.647 12364.230 800.880
0.612 12320.301 512.839
0.597 12919.724 -694.454
0.604 12451.851 11.879
0.617 12426.749 919.781
0.613 13506.372 -315.372
0.612 13542.420 -652.620
0.636 13720.835 -510.935
0.603 12772.260 -453.320
0.594 12254.581 -137.841
0.594 12377.989 -469.549
0.606 12407.644 -497.404
12070.911
12058.542
12569.328
11921.510
11772.302
11798.419
12060.421
12222.844
12210.047
12726.967
12070.757
11919.419
11945.599
12210.601
12374.777
12361.552
12884.607
12220.004
12066.535
12092.778
12360.782
12526.710
12513.056
13042.246
12369.252
12213.651
12239.958
12510.962
12678.642
12664.561
UCTION (BLS) with forecasts superimposed
17000.000

15000.000

13000.000

11000.000

9000.000 Forecast
Observation
7000.000

5000.000

3000.000

1000.000
99217235253271289307325343361379397415
Time
 Simple exponential Holt's exponential Winters' exponential
Moving averages
smoothing smoothing smoothing
Span 3 Smoothing constant(s) Smoothing constant(s) Smoothing constant(s)
Level 0.954 Level 0.978 Level
Trend 0.048 Trend
Seasonality
Estimation period Estimation period Estimation period Estimation period
MAE 333.02 MAE 263.25 MAE 275.46 MAE
RMSE 611.41 RMSE 511.18 RMSE 532.63 RMSE
MAPE 5.64% MAPE 4.64% MAPE 4.53% MAPE
 Winters' exponential
smoothing
moothing constant(s)
0.565
0.050
1
Estimation period
452.29
854.09
8.15%