Y=a0 + a1x1+a2x2+i+ e

Nombre d'observation

Dfinition de la matrice X

(Xt*X)-1

(Xt*Y)

Estimation des Coefficients

Y
5.464272
5.521289
5.517868
5.554376
5.554897
5.612298
5.658489
5.673426
5.704574
5.732061
5.754923
5.795668
5.827124
5.872244
5.888213
5.906818

Estimation des Coefficients

Matrice des variances et Covariance

Ecart-type des Coefficents Estims

Resum

Analyse de la variance

RAPPORT DTAILL
Statistiques de la rgression
Coefficient de dtermination m
Coefficient de dtermination
Coefficient de dtermination
Erreur-type
Observations
ANALYSE DE VARIANCE
Rgression

Rsidus
Total

Constante
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

+e

Y
5.4643
5.5213
5.5179
5.5544
5.5549
5.6123
5.6585
5.6734
5.7046
5.7321
5.7549
5.7957
5.8271
5.8722
5.8882
5.9068
N
Moyenne

Variances Empiriques
Variance
Ecart Type

16
Y
5.689908755
Y
0.0192921328
0.1388961224

X
4.7809405778
4.7919775114
4.8181334807
4.9537838454
4.990516444
5.0094593946
5.0250476701
5.0504570948
5.0784640683
5.1229331007
5.1621340806
5.2107357558
5.2845953961
5.3569145813
5.3544484393
5.3699705767

Xt
4.7809405778
6.8349806111
1

(Xt*X)-1
34.0726534995
-109.0792915094
584.5845613464

(Xt*Y)

463.3487024349
632.630203765
91.0385400803

et Covariance
^Var*(Xt*X)-1

^a1
^a2
^a0

0.3903918416
1.1080896564
-3.9938689612

^Y

Y - ^Y
0.017929
0.035327
0.006537
0.005872
0.063549
0.023623
0.001012
0.008464
0.005296
0.001616
0.002485
0.004842
0.006164
0.002460
0.011003
0.024087

5.446343
5.485962
5.511331
5.560248
5.618447
5.635922
5.657477
5.681890
5.699279
5.730445
5.752438
5.790827
5.833288
5.874704
5.877210
5.882731

^Var
^EcartType

0.0005478
0.0234052842

0.0186652493
-0.0597544354
0.3202397077

16

nts Estims
Valeur de t telle que P(|t|>t) = 5%
Valeurs
0.3903918416
1.1080896564
-3.9938689612

^a1
^a2
^a0

Coefficient de determination
Coefficient de determination multiple
Coefficient de determination ajust
Statistique F
Probabilit

0.9769287584
0.9883970652

Source de variation
Regression
Residus
Total

Somme des carrs

0.3016
0.0071
0.3087

atistiques de la rgression
0.9883970652
0.9769287585
0.9733793367
0.0234052842
16

Degr de libert

Somme des carrs

2
0.3015526296

13
15

0.0071214953
0.3086741249

Coefficients
-3.9938689607
0.3903918416
1.108089656

Erreur-type
2.4472920504
0.1366208232
0.4489410028

Regression lineaire Multiple

Modelisation lineaire du PIB en DH en fonction des variables

X1

X2

4.7809

6.8350

4.7920

6.8668

4.8181

6.8805

4.9538

6.8769

4.9905

6.9165

5.0095

6.9256

5.0250

6.9395

5.0505

6.9526

5.0785

6.9584

5.1229

6.9709

5.1621

6.9769

5.2107

6.9944

5.2846

7.0067

5.3569

7.0186

5.3544

7.0218

5.3700

7.0213

X1
5.0850320011

X2
6.9476532554

X1
0.0360623794
0.1899009726

X2
0.0033397167
0.0577902821

6.8349806111
6.866846741
6.8805261876
6.8768809319
6.9164607679
6.9255573188
6.9395186267
6.9525975671
6.9584231366
6.9708820494
6.9769190219
6.9944401111
7.0067383104
7.0186353575
7.0217655987
7.021279749

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

4.7919775114
6.866846741
1

4.8181334807
6.8805261876
1

-109.0792915094
367.9177202488
-2001.4930588282

584.5845613467
-2001.4930588285
10933.1110640623

(Y - ^Y)
0.000321
0.001248
0.000043
0.000034
0.004039
0.000558
0.000001
0.000072
0.000028
0.000003
0.000006
0.000023
0.000038
0.000006
0.000121
0.000580
0.007121

-0.0597544354
0.201548024
-1.0964325685

^Y-Ybar
0.243566
0.203947
0.178578
0.129660
0.071462
0.053987
0.032431
0.008019
0.009370
0.040536
0.062529
0.100918
0.143379
0.184795
0.187301
0.192822

0.3202397077
-1.0964325685
5.9892383803

2.1603686565
^
0.1366208232
0.4489410028
2.4472920505

t
2.8574841842
2.4682300114
-1.631954372

Fth
Moyennes des Carrs
0.1508
0.0005
0.0206

Moyenne des carrs

0.1507763148

Degrs de liebrt
2
13
15

F
275.2360301914

0.0005478073

Statistique t
-1.6319543718
2.8574841844
2.4682300113

Probabilit
0.1266643425
0.0134623998
0.0282285655

Regression lineaire Multiple

n DH en fonction des variables explicatives capital et travail.

a0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

4.9537838454
6.8768809319
1

4.990516444
6.9164607679
1

(^Y-Ybar)
0.059324
0.041594
0.031890
0.016812
0.005107
0.002915
0.001052
0.000064
0.000088
0.001643
0.003910
0.010184
0.020558
0.034149
0.035082
0.037180
0.301553

Y-Ybar
0.225637
0.168620
0.172041
0.135532
0.135012
0.077610
0.031419
0.016483
0.014666
0.042152
0.065014
0.105759
0.137216
0.182335
0.198304
0.216909

P
Limite inferieur 95%
0.0134623998
0.0952404973
0.0282285655
0.1382115854
0.1266643425
-9.2809220003

19.4189038394
F0
275.2360301852

Valeur critique de F
2.29066340393608E-011

P-value
2.2907E-11

te infrieure pour seuil

Limite
de confiance
suprieure=pour
95% seuil de confiance = 95%
-9.2809219997
1.2931840783
0.0952404973
0.6855431859
0.1382115853
2.0779677273

l et travail.

5.0094593946 5.0250477 5.0504571 5.0784641

6.9255573188 6.9395186 6.9525976 6.9584231
1
1
1
1

(Y-Ybar)
0.050912
0.028433
0.029598
0.018369
0.018228
0.006023
0.000987
0.000272
0.000215
0.001777
0.004227
0.011185
0.018828
0.033246
0.039324
0.047050
0.308674

Limite Superieur 95%

0.6855431859
2.0779677274
1.2931840778

infrieureLimite
pour seuil
suprieure
de confiance
pour seuil
= 95,0%
de confiance = 95,0%
-9.2809219997 1.293184
0.0952404973 0.685543
0.1382115853 2.077968

5.1229331 5.1621341 5.2107358 5.2845954 5.3569146 5.3544484

6.970882 6.976919 6.9944401 7.0067383 7.0186354 7.0217656
1
1
1
1
1
1

95,0%

5.3699706
7.0212797
1

Annes

Revenu national
brut disponible
(MDH

Formation brute
population Active
du capital fixe
occupe Nationale
(MDH)

1995

291253.8

60386.6

6838811.1496028

1996

332115.5

61940.9

7359473.4176942

1997

329509.4

65786

7594972.1833966

1998

358407

89905

7531490.4877977

1999

358836.9

97840

8250129.5430482

2000

409542

102202

8424755.7524989

2001

455501

105937

8699987.4620828

2002

471439

112320

8965975.8982296

2003

506494

119802

9087054.5796804

2004

539586

132719

9351516.6066926

2005

568752

145256

9482416.3862797

2006

624695

162456

9872794.8126927

2007

671621

192573

10156365.240041

2008

745150

227465

10438434.188555

2009

773059

226177

10513942.528349

2010

806897

234407

10502187.047524

RAPPORT DTAILL
Statistiques de la rgression
Coefficient d
0.9883970652
Coefficient d
0.9769287585
Coefficient d
0.9733793367
Erreur-type
0.0234052842
Observations
16
ANALYSE DE VARIANCE
Degr de libert Somme des carrs Moyenne des carrs
Rgression
2
0.3015526296
0.1507763148
Rsidus
13
0.0071214953
0.0005478073
Total
15
0.3086741249

Constante

Coefficients
-3.9938689607

Erreur-type
2.4472920504

Statistique t
-1.6319543718

Variable X 1
Variable X 2

0.3903918416
1.1080896563

0.1366208232
0.4489410028

2.8574841844
2.4682300113

log10(RNBD)

5.4643
5.5213
5.5179
5.5544
5.5549
5.6123
5.6585
5.6734
5.7046
5.7321
5.7549
5.7957
5.8271
5.8722
5.8882
5.9068

log10(FBCF)

4.7809
4.7920
4.8181
4.9538
4.9905
5.0095
5.0250
5.0505
5.0785
5.1229
5.1621
5.2107
5.2846
5.3569
5.3544
5.3700

log10(PAON)

6.8350
6.8668
6.8805
6.8769
6.9165
6.9256
6.9395
6.9526
6.9584
6.9709
6.9769
6.9944
7.0067
7.0186
7.0218
7.0213

F
Valeur critique de F
275.2360301914 2.29066340E-011

Probabilit
Limite infrieure pour
Limite
seuil
suprieure
de confiance
Limite
pour=
infrieure
seuil
95%Limite
de confiance
pour
suprieure
seuil=de
95%
confiance
pour seuil =
de95,0%
confiance = 95,0
0.1266643425
-9.2809219997
1.2931840783
-9.280922 1.29318408

0.0134623998
0.0282285655

0.0952404973
0.1382115853

0.6855431859 0.0952405 0.68554319

2.0779677273 0.13821159 2.07796773

seuil de confiance = 95,0%

PAON
12000000
10000000
8000000
PAON

6000000
4000000
2000000
0

FBCF
250000
200000
150000

FBCF

100000
50000
0

5.6000
5.4000
5.2000
RNBD

f(x) = 1.3438534652x - 2.5613715962

R = 0.9661169369

5.0000
4.8000
4.6000
4.4000
5.4000

5.5000

5.6000

5.7000
FBCF

5.8000

5.9000

6.0000

4.8000
4.6000
4.4000
5.4000

5.5000

5.6000

5.7000
FBCF

5.8000

5.9000

6.0000

RNBD

PAON

900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0

7.0500
7.0000

f(x) = 0.4081793623x + 4.6251499282

R = 0.962437861

6.9500
6.9000
RNBD
FBCF

6.8500
6.8000
6.7500
6.7000
5.4000

5.5000

5.6000

5.7000
PAON

6.0000

5.8000

5.9000

6.0

6.0000

RNBD

+ 4.6251499282

5.7000

AON

5.8000

5.9000

6.0000

Annes

Revenu national
brut disponible
(MM$)

Formation brute population Active

du capital fixe occupe Nationale
(MM$)

1995

1570

282

22844000

1996

1580

268

22964000

1997

1432

239

22882000

1998

1482

267

23130000

1999

1480

274

23390000

2000

1345

264

24021000

2001

1356

262

24386000

2002

1462

270

24634000

2003

1810

331

24678000

2004

2083

395

24777000

2005

2170

427

24949000

2006

2296

471

25118000

2007

2627

567

25553000

2008

2882

622

25899000

2009

2668

496

25660000

2010

2617

495

25710000

RAPPORT DTAILL
Statistiques de la rgression
Coefficient de dterminat
0.985734662
Coefficient de dtermina
0.9716728238
Coefficient de dtermina
0.9673147967
Erreur-type
0.0215493232
Observations
16
Fth =
ANALYSE DE VARIANCE
Degr de libert

Somme des carrs Moyenne des carrs

2
0.2070748692
0.1035374346
13
0.0060368533
0.0004643733
15
0.2131117225

Rgression
Rsidus
Total
Coefficients

Erreur-type

Statistique t

Constante
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

6.2516414405
0.9189398494
-0.7204878647

4.1206566573
0.0799176173
0.5815934409

1.517146892
11.4985891838
-1.2388170396

Tth=

2.1603686565

log10(RNBD)

3.1959
3.1987
3.1559
3.1708
3.1703
3.1287
3.1323
3.1649
3.2577
3.3187
3.3365
3.3610
3.4195
3.4597
3.4262
3.4178

log10(FBCF)

2.4502
2.4281
2.3784
2.4265
2.4378
2.4216
2.4183
2.4314
2.5198
2.5966
2.6304
2.6730
2.7536
2.7938
2.6955
2.6946

log10(PAON)

7.3588
7.3610
7.3595
7.3642
7.3690
7.3806
7.3871
7.3915
7.3923
7.3940
7.3971
7.4000
7.4074
7.4133
7.4093
7.4101

19.4189038401
F
Valeur critique de F
222.9616291989 8.69603632E-011

Probabilit
Limite infrieure pour
Limite
seuil
suprieure
de confiance
Limite
pour=infrieure
seuil
95%de
Limite
confiance
pour
suprieure
seuil
= de
95%
confiance
pour seuil =
de95,0%
confiance = 95,0

0.1531655317
3.48088482E-008
0.2373154402

-2.6504960461
0.7462883339
-1.9769441051

15.1537789271 -2.65049605 15.1537789

1.0915913648 0.74628833 1.09159136
0.5359683758 -1.97694411 0.53596838

seuil de confiance = 95,0%