Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
450,000
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$50,000
$0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Cash used for Debt Service Cash Available for Debt Service
(CADS)
27 028 029 030 031 032 033 034
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Exhibit 1 Venezuelan Macroeconomic Data: 1970-1996
Per Capita
Real GDP GDP Government Total Debt Oil Exports/ Oil Exports/ Unemployment Inflation Interest Exchange
Growth Growth Surplus/GDPa Stock/GDP Total Exports GDP Rate Rate Ratesb Ratec
1970 7.3% 3.7% (0.9%) 6.9% 89.0% 17.2% 7.8% 2.5% ... 4.450
1971 2.4 (1.0) 0.5 12.7 92.2 19.0 ... 3.2 ... 4.350
1972 2.5 (1.0) (0.2) 15.2 91.4 17.3 ... 2.8 ... 4.350
1973 6.1 2.5 1.6 14.0 88.6 21.6 ... 4.1 ... 4.285
1974 5.2 1.7 2.4 8.6 95.2 33.4 7.6 8.3 ... 4.285
1975 5.1 1.5 0.6 6.8 94.6 25.6 8.3 10.3 ... 4.285
1976 8.3 4.6 0.5 13.3 94.2 23.6 6.8 7.6 ... 4.293
1977 6.2 2.5 (4.4) 25.1 95.4 21.3 5.5 7.8 ... 4.293
1978 2.2 (1.3) (3.6) 35.7 95.1 18.8 5.1 7.1 ... 4.293
1979 1.3 (2.0) 2.1 42.2 95.2 23.9 5.8 12.4 ... 4.293
1980 (2.5) (5.5) 0.0 42.0 94.9 26.2 6.6 21.5 ... 4.293
1981 (0.2) (3.0) 2.2 41.0 94.6 24.3 6.8 16.2 ... 4.293
1982 0.8 (1.8) (2.1) 40.2 94.7 19.5 7.8 9.6 ... 4.293
1983 (5.2) (7.5) (0.6) 48.1 91.3 17.4 11.2 6.3 ... 4.300
1984 (0.5) (2.9) 2.8 63.8 87.7 21.0 14.3 12.2 13.15% 7.500
1985 1.1 (1.4) 2.0 59.0 82.6 17.3 14.3 11.4 12.55 7.500
1986 6.2 3.5 (0.4) 56.4 69.2 10.9 12.1 11.5 12.07 14.500
1987 4.5 1.7 (1.7) 73.8 81.8 14.9 9.9 28.1 13.49 14.500
1988 6.2 3.4 (6.1) 57.5 76.4 13.5 7.9 29.3 14.86 14.500
1989 (8.5) (10.8) (1.1) 75.6 74.9 23.4 9.7 84.7 17.32 43.079
1990 7.5 4.9 (2.1) 68.3 80.0 29.2 11.0 40.6 20.06 50.380
1991 10.1 7.5 (1.4) 63.8 81.1 23.1 10.1 34.2 27.14 61.554
1992 7.4 4.9 (3.8) 62.4 79.0 18.7 8.1 31.4 31.66 79.450
1993 (0.6) (2.8) (2.5) 62.2 74.7 18.0 6.8 38.1 41.03 105.640
1994 (2.5) (4.6) (6.8) 62.6 72.7 20.2 8.9 60.8 54.73 170.000
1995 3.7 1.5 (4.6) 46.0 74.4 17.9 10.9 59.9 53.38 290.000
1996 (0.4) (2.5) 0.2 49.9 80.4 26.7 12.3 99.9 49.09 476.500
Sources: Inter-American Development Bank; and International Financial Statistics, International Monetary Fund.
a
Negative values signify Government Deficit/GDP.
b
The interest rates provided are yields to maturity on long-term Venezuelan government bonds.
c
The exchange rates provided are the official bolivar/US dollar exchange rates determined by the Venezuelan government. Prior to 1989 and between 1994 and early 1996, the government
fixed the exchange rate. Between 1989 and 1994 and after early 1996, the government allowed the bolivar to float freely against the US dollar.
Exhibit 2 DuPont and PDVSA Balance Sheets (US dollars in millions): 1995-1996
DuPont PDVSA
1996 1995 1996 1995
Assets
Sources: DuPont 1996 Annual Report; and PDVSA 1996 Form 20-F.
Exhibit 3 DuPont and PDVSA Income Statements (US dollars in millions): 1995-1996
DuPont PDVSA
1996 1995 1996 1995
Sources: DuPont 1996 Annual Report; and PDVSA 1996 Form 20-F.
Exhibit 4 Conoco and Maraven Financial Information (U.S. dollars in millions): 1995-1996
Conoco Maraven
1996 1995 1996 1995
Uses
Capital Expenditures
Crude Oil Production $11,995 $191,849 $151,141 $77,092 $16,702
Crude Oil Pipeline 655 170,512 45,121 0 0
Upgrader & Loading Facilitya 14,345 243,305 510,987 230,306 67,912
Upstream Contingency 0 0 0 0 37,925
Total Capex $26,994 $605,666 $707,249 $307,399 $122,539
Other Costs
Deferred Development Costs and $52,040 $23,328 $71,724 $0 $0
Operating Expenditures
Initial Cash Balance 0 0 10,000 0 0
Financing Costs 0 61,134 86,816 94,955 111,556
Legal & Advisory Fees 0 15,000 0 0 0
Debt Service Reserve 0 0 0 0 80,865
Excess Cash Balance 0 47,213 0 0 195
Sources
Total Project Debt $0 $1,000,000 $24,299 $242,981 $182,720
Cumulative project debt $0 $1,000,000 $1,024,299 $1,267,280 $1,450,000
Shareholder Funds
Initial Paid in Capital $79,035 $0 $0 $0 $0
Additional Paid-in Capital 0 1,986 550,148 (1,576) (185,047)
Eqity infusion commitement 79035 1986 550148 1576 185047
Cumulative equity infusion commitme 79035 81021 631169 629593 444546
Operating Cash Flowb 0 47,213 4,484 160,948 317,481
Cumulative OCF 0 47213 51697 212645 530126
Total Shareholder Funds $79,035 $49,199 $554,632 $159,373 $132,434
2000000 212645
$147,093
51697
10,000 629593
354,461 1500000
15,000 631169
80,865
47,408 47213
1000000 81021
$2,424,673
1267280
500000 1000000 1024299
$1,450,000 60%
$79,035 0
79035
0 0
365,511 1 2 3 4
Cumulative OCF Cumulative equity infusion commitment Cumulative project
444546
530,126
$974,673
$2,424,673
rces of funds
530126
212645
51697 444546
629593
631169
1450000
1267280
024299
3 4 5
commitment Cumulative project debt
Exhibit 8 Oil and Gas Industry Comparables: 1996 (unless otherwise indicated)
North America
Canada AA+ AA+ Aa1 Aa2 81.3 79.4
Mexico BB BB Baa1 Ba2 46.1 41.6
United States AAA AAA Aaa Aaa 90.8 90.7
Central America
Costa Rica n/r n/r n/r n/r 30.3 33.9
Panama n/r n/r n/r n/r 24.4 28.5
South America
Argentina BB- BB- B2 B1 37.3 38.9
Bolivia n/r n/r n/r n/r 21.4 25.4
Brazil B+ B+ B1 B1 30.3 38.3
Chile BBB+ A- Baa2 Baa1 54.9 61.2
Colombia n/r BBB- n/r Baa3 44.4 46.7
Ecuador n/r n/r n/r n/r 24.5 26.4
Peru n/r n/r n/r B3 21.0 30.0
Venezuela B+ B Ba2 Ba2 36.0 32.0
Source: Bloomberg; and “Country Credit Ratings,” Institutional Investor, March 1995 and September 1996.
a
A foreign currency long-term debt rating is the rating agency’s assessment of each government’s capacity and willingness to repay its
foreign currency denominated long-term debt according to the debt’s terms. n/r = not rated.
b
The following table provides a guide S&P’s and Moody’s ratings. Note that between ratings categories, there are modifiers: S&P uses
two (+ and -); and Moody’s uses three (1, 2, and 3), where 1 is the highest rank.
S&P Moody’s
AAA Aaa
Investment AA Aa
Grade A A
BBB Baa
BB Ba
Non-investment B B
Grade CCC Caa
CC Ca
C C
c
Institutional Investor’s “Country Credit Ratings” were based on a survey of 75 to 100 international banks. Bankers were asked to grade
each country on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 representing the least chance of default.
Exhibit 10a Petrozuata Equity Cash Flow Projections (US dollars in thousands)
Annual
Productio Production
n in BPCY Annual BPCY (as Price/B
(in Productio per the (as per maintaine
thousand n in Productio Production the Price Revenue Labor and Well nce
s) BPCY n BPCD Efficiancy) variation) (revised) overhead Servicing utilities materials F&D
0 0 0 0.00 $11.64 0
0 0 0 0.00 $11.93 0
### ### ### 5796254.86 $12.23 70867910
### ### ### 30902657.32 $12.53 387225747.5
### ### ### 56501671.60 $12.84 725707470
### ### ### 39011414.14 $13.17 513663290 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39015985.22 $13.50 526696292.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39043825.55 $13.83 540054195 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39041500.33 $14.18 553745120 ### -83061768 ### ### ###
### ### ### 39062820.26 $14.54 567778092.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39081594.39 $14.90 582159430 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39098736.78 $15.27 596900865 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39114735.88 $15.65 612008715 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39107095.91 $16.05 627492907.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39123370.88 $16.44 643364272.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39140214.21 $16.85 659630030 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39136709.73 $17.28 676301912.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39156869.64 $17.71 693389847.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39182301.50 $17.71 693840195 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39208344.96 $17.71 694301372.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39234949.03 $17.71 694772477.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39262164.70 $17.71 695254412.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39289991.95 $17.71 695747177.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39318379.83 $17.71 696249870 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39847964.06 $17.71 705627747.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39877626.07 $17.71 706153002.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39907950.64 $17.71 706689990 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39938937.77 $17.71 707238710 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 39970638.41 $17.71 707800065 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 40003001.61 $17.71 708373152.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 40036078.33 $17.71 708958875 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 40069919.53 $17.71 709558135 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 40104423.28 $17.71 710169127.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 40139742.49 $17.71 710794560 ### -106619184 ### ### ###
### ### ### 40175775.21 $17.71 711432627.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 40212623.39 $17.71 712085135 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 40250287.02 $17.71 712752082.5 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 40288766.09 $17.71 713433470 ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### 40328060.62 $17.71 714129297.5 ### ### ### ### ###
-3.19 -0.1
Cash Total
Operating Operating Interest
Cost Cost Operating Profit Interest coverage ratio
0 0 0
0 0 -100000000
0 70867910 -102429900
0 387225747.5 -126728000
0 725707470 -145000000
### ### ### -141111100 0.00
### ### ### -137222200 0.02
### ### ### -133333300 0.05
### ### ### -126885600 0.08
### ### ### -118761400 0.11
### ### ### -108696100 0.16
### ### ### -97748400 0.21
### ### 24567574.46102 -84955600 0.29
### ### ### -75513700 0.38
### ### ### -66913700 0.49
### ### ### -56713700 0.65
### ### ### -44913700 0.92
### ### ### -40168900 1.13
### ### ### -34824100 1.31
### ### ### -25203400 1.81
### ### ### -13444800 3.40
### ### ### -7500000 6.09
### ### ### -7500000 6.10
### ### ### -7500000 6.10
### ### ### -7500000 6.18
### ### ### -7500000 6.19
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
Exhibit 10a Petrozuata Equity Cash Flow Projections (US dollars in thousands)
Cash
Used for
Debt
Forecast Cash Available for Service
Price of Debt Service Total Debt Reserve
Year Steel Total Revenue (CADS) Service Account
1996 48000.00 $0
1997 49440.00 0
1998 50923.20 0
1999 52450.90 1,573,526,880,000 1,258,821,504,000 (3,250,000,000)
2000 54024.42 1,620,732,686,400 1,296,586,149,120 (3,250,000,000) ($80,865)
2001 55645.16 1,669,354,666,992 1,335,483,733,594 (3,250,000,000) 1,614
2002 57314.51 1,719,435,307,002 1,375,548,245,601 (3,250,000,000) 1,614
2003 59033.95 1,771,018,366,212 1,416,814,692,969 (3,250,000,000) (11,509)
2004 60804.96 1,824,148,917,198 1,459,319,133,759 (3,250,000,000) (5,700)
2005 62629.11 1,878,873,384,714 1,503,098,707,771 (3,250,000,000) (6,345)
2006 64507.99 1,935,239,586,256 1,548,191,669,004 (3,250,000,000) (550)
2007 66443.23 1,993,296,773,843 1,594,637,419,075 (3,250,000,000) (4,671)
2008 68436.52 2,053,095,677,059 1,642,476,541,647 (3,250,000,000) 10,623
2009 70489.62 2,114,688,547,370 1,691,750,837,896 (3,250,000,000) 19,595
2010 72604.31 2,178,129,203,791 1,742,503,363,033 (3,250,000,000) (4,135)
2011 74782.44 2,243,473,079,905 1,794,778,463,924 (3,250,000,000) (3,438)
2012 77025.91 2,310,777,272,302 1,848,621,817,842 (3,250,000,000) 40,417
2013 79336.69 2,380,100,590,471 1,904,080,472,377 (3,250,000,000) (933)
2014 81716.79 2,451,503,608,185 1,961,202,886,548 (3,250,000,000) (19,051)
2015 84168.29 2,525,048,716,431 2,020,038,973,145 (3,250,000,000) (6,498)
2016 86693.34 2,600,800,177,924 2,080,640,142,339 (3,250,000,000) 4,468
2017 89294.14 2,678,824,183,262 2,143,059,346,609 (3,250,000,000) 62,038
2018 91972.96 2,759,188,908,760 2,207,351,127,008 (3,250,000,000) 0
0
0
0
3,327
0
Equity Cash Flows
(19,500,000,000) $0 ### $0
(26,000,000,000) 1,000,000 1000000 ### $0
(19,500,000,000) 1,024,299 24299 ### $0
$472,058,064,000 1,267,280 242981 ### ###
185,047 1,450,000 182720 $185,047 398.9496 ###
225,457 1,411,111 -38889 $225,457 410.9181 ###
233,074 1,372,222 -38889 $233,074 423.2456 ###
200,600 1,333,333 -38889 $200,600 435.943 ###
218,903 1,268,856 -64477 $218,903 449.0213 ###
203,857 1,187,614 -81242 $203,857 462.4919 ###
232,620 1,086,961 -100653 $232,620 476.3667 ###
229,393 977,484 -109477 $229,393 490.6577 ###
238,588 849,556 -127928 $238,588 505.3774 ###
226,629 755,137 -94419 $226,629 520.5387 ###
216,878 669,137 -86000 $216,878 536.1549 ###
216,655 567,137 -102000 $216,655 552.2395 ###
262,881 449,137 -118000 $262,881 568.8067 ###
242,378 401,689 -47448 $242,378 585.8709 ###
251,988 348,241 -53448 $251,988 603.447 ###
260,474 252,034 -96207 $260,474 621.5505 ###
250,893 134,448 -117586 $250,893 640.197 ###
376,215 75,000 -59448 $376,215 659.4029 ###
320,878 75,000 0 $320,878 679.185 ###
301,370 75,000 0 $301,370 #DIV/0! $0
276,398 75,000 0 $276,398 #DIV/0! $0
292,810 75,000 0 $292,810 #DIV/0! $0
217,227 0 -75000 $217,227 #DIV/0! $0
294,578 0 $294,578 $0
289,656 0 $289,656 $0
289,705 0 $289,705 $0
278,074 0 $278,074 $0
276,806 0 $276,806 $0
274,449 0 $274,449 $0
263,604 0 $263,604 $0
247,540 0 $247,540 $0
250,329 0 $250,329 $0
242,937 0 $242,937 $0
240,644 0 $240,644 $0
226,196 0 $226,196 $0
Loan Life
Coverage
ratio Debt s
(LLCR) $2,500,000,000,000
-17365749399 #DIV/0!
-20620119807 ###
-13772455121 -51758324328 233911.7 $2,000,000,000,000
PV ### 189062.8
NPV ### 165238.3
169792.1
174604
$1,500,000,000,000
179696.7
188828
201745.3
220426.9
245114.5 $1,000,000,000,000
282024.4
317287.4
358066.4
422464.9
533457.5 $500,000,000,000
596470.1
688016.3
950647.5
1782068
$0
3194606
3194606 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
3194606 Cash used for Debt Service
3194606
3194606
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Debt service
08 009 010 011 012 013 014 015 016 017 018
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Cash used for Debt Service Cash Available for Debt Service
(CADS)
Exhibit 10b Capital Markets Data (as of January 1997)
Sources: Petrozuata Planning Documents; Federal Reserve Bulletin; S&P Bond Guide, and casewriter estimates.
Exhibit 12 Historical Monthly Crude Prices (US dollars per barrel): 1974-1996
Sources: The Composite crude prices are from Monthly Energy Review; 1974-1996; and Charles Riner of the Energy Information
Administration provided the Maya Crude prices.