Descriptive Statistics

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

Identifiant pays 595 18 10.108 1 35
Année 595 2013 4.903 2005 2021
Indice vulnérabilité 595 .519 .062 .385 .66
Sensibilité 595 .387 .076 .229 .568
Exposition 595 .477 .055 .356 .633
Capacité 578 .717 .086 .483 .927
dépenses 595 23.799 9.4 8.674 64.641
Dette publique 595 47.862 31.57 .488 295.748
TCR réel 595 101.084 15.841 65.326 207.866
Solde budgétaire 595 -.542 7.596 -17.317 126.464
Taux d’inflation 595 6.394 6.316 -16.86 44.357
PIB /habitant 595 2122.024 2522.435 263.361 14222.549
Taux d’intérêt 595 140.262 205.456 14.328 3012.792
Stabilité politique 595 -.44 .847 -2.699 1.201
Etat de droit 595 -.601 .596 -1.851 1.024
Contrôle de corruption 595 -.57 .633 -1.645 1.161
Qualité de la 595 -.579 .54 -1.733 1.197
règlementation
Voix et responsabilité 595 -.434 .708 -1.999 .975
Efficacité du gouvernement 595 -.689 .569 -1.879 1.15
Investissement direct 595 4.542 13.699 -111.69 183.065
étranger
Aide au développement 595 8.820e+08 1.018e+09 519999.98 1.143e+10
improtation 595 37.791 16.464 11.615 112.525
exportation 595 28.489 15.542 5.775 86.764
Ouverture commerciale 595 66.28 27.458 21.116 161.458

Les résultats de la statistique descriptive montrent avec 595 observations que les pays ont en
moyenne un indice de vulnérabilité de 0.519 avec un écart-type de 0.062 et des valeurs du Min-
Max (0,385 et 0,66), on note une hétérogénéité entre les pays en ce qui concerne leur résilience et
leur degré d’exposition au changement climatique. Ensuite la dette publique en moyenne est de
47.862% du PIB avec une variabilité de 31.57 qui fait ressortir également une hétérogénéité des
moyens de financement pour s’adapter au climat

Linear regression
Dette publique Coef. St.Err. t-value p-value [95% Conf Interval] Sig
Indice 125.504 119.202 1.05 .293 -108.636 359.645
vulnérabilité
Sensibilité 100.465 50.949 1.97 .049 .389 200.541 **
Exposition -107.717 48.259 -2.23 .026 -202.508 -12.925 **
Capacité -236.835 43.805 -5.41 0 -322.879 -150.792 ***
Dépenses .348 .177 1.97 .05 0 .695 **

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TCR reel -.153 .081 -1.89 .06 -.313 .006 *
Solde budgétaire .157 .16 0.98 .325 -.156 .471
Taux d’inflation -.052 .204 -0.26 .798 -.452 .348
PIB/tête .001 .001 0.82 .412 -.001 .003
Taux d’intérêt .032 .006 4.93 0 .019 .044 ***
Stabilité politique -5.352 2.578 -2.08 .038 -10.415 -.288 **
Etat de droit 7.821 6.993 1.12 .264 -5.914 21.557
Contrôle de 4.989 5.047 0.99 .323 -4.924 14.902
corruption
Qualité de la -50.961 6.233 -8.18 0 -63.203 -38.719 ***
règlementation
Voix et .614 3.18 0.19 .847 -5.632 6.859
responsabilité
Efficacité du 13.586 7.53 1.80 .072 -1.205 28.377 *
gouvernement
Investissement .115 .088 1.30 .194 -.059 .289
direct étraner
Aide au 0 0 -3.40 .001 0 0 ***
développement
Ouverture .001 .067 0.02 .983 -.13 .133
commerciale
Constant 157.03 23.876 6.58 0 110.132 203.928 ***

Mean dependent var 48.689 SD dependent var 31.503

R-squared 0.295 Number of 578
obs
F-test 12.313 Prob > F 0.000
Akaike 5465.224 Bayesian 5552.415
crit. (AIC) crit. (BIC)
*** p<.01, ** p<.05, * p<.1

Le modèle dans son ensemble est significatif (Prob > F = 0.0000), il indique que les variables
indépendantes globalement ont un effet significatif sur la dette publique et expliquent environ 29,54% de
la variance de la dette publique. Les variables significatives sont : sensibilité, exposition, capacité,
dépenses, taux d'intérêt, stabilité politique, qualité de la réglementation et aide au développement car elles
ont une valeur p inférieure à 0,05. Elles.

VIF 1/VIF
41.550 0.024
14.680 0.068
13.830 0.072
11.430 0.088
11.180 0.089
8.420 0.119
7.940 0.126
5.710 0.175
3.880 0.258
3.870 0.258
3.650 0.274
2.580 0.388
2.210 0.451

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 1.850 0.541
1.440 0.693
1.360 0.736
1.350 0.743
1.200 0.837
1.140 0.875
7.330

L’indice de vulnérabilité ; efficacité du gouvernement ; état de droit ; capacité et sensibilité ont une forte
multicollinéarité . La moyenne du VIF pour ce modèle est de 7.33, ce qui implique qu'il y a un niveau
modéré de multicollinéarité dans l'ensemble du modèle.

Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity

Ho: Constant variance
Variables: fitted values of dettepubl
chi2(1) = 179.89
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

D’après ces résultats il y a présence d'hétéroscédasticité dans le modèle de régression

Regression results
dettepubl Coef. St.Err. t-value p-value [95% Conf Interval] Sig
indicevulné 304.595 238.037 1.28 .201 -161.949 771.138
sensibilité 23.191 97.903 0.24 .813 -168.695 215.077
exposition -178.777 94.386 -1.89 .058 -363.771 6.217 *
capacité -281.51 81.672 -3.45 .001 -441.583 -121.436 ***
dépenses .65 .213 3.05 .002 .232 1.067 ***
TCRréel -.398 .083 -4.81 0 -.56 -.236 ***
Soldebude .258 .141 1.84 .066 -.017 .534 *
tauxdinflation .168 .209 0.80 .421 -.241 .577
PIBtête .002 .002 0.84 .399 -.002 .005
tauxdintérêt .039 .007 5.65 0 .026 .053 ***
stabilitépoliti -5.939 3.01 -1.97 .048 -11.837 -.04 **
Etatdroit 5.079 8.052 0.63 .528 -10.702 20.86
contrà -1.759 6.4 -0.27 .784 -14.303 10.786
´lecorruption
Qualitédelarà -35.839 7.039 -5.09 0 -49.635 -22.043 ***
©gleme~n
Voixetresponsabil -.949 4.873 -0.19 .846 -10.5 8.601
ité
efficacitégouv 13.443 8.115 1.66 .098 -2.463 29.348 *
Investissementdir -.022 .076 -0.30 .766 -.171 .126
e~n
aideaudévelopp 0 0 -1.16 .247 0 0
ement
Ouverturecommer -.11 .078 -1.41 .159 -.264 .043

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ciale
Constant 180.56 39.71 4.55 0 102.731 258.39 ***

Mean dependent var 48.689 SD dependent var 31.503

Overall r- 0.234 Number of 578
squared obs
Chi-square 150.988 Prob > 0.000
chi2
R-squared 0.208 R-squared 0.271
within between
*** p<.01, ** p<.05, * p<.1

xtunitroot ips indicevulné

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for indicevulné
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.3589 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.2401
Z-t-tilde-bar 0.9926 0.8395

. xtunitroot ips sensibilité

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for sensibilité
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included

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Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.9274 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.6558
Z-t-tilde-bar -2.2482 0.0123

. xtunitroot ips exposition

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for exposition
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar . -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar .
Z-t-tilde-bar . *

* Normality of Z-t-tilde-bar requires at least 6 observations

per panel with balanced data and no time trend.

. xtunitroot ips capacité

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for capacité
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 34
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity

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Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.2778 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.1459
Z-t-tilde-bar 1.7023 0.9556

. xtunitroot ips dépenses

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for dépenses
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.6516 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.5015
Z-t-tilde-bar -1.0455 0.1479

. xtunitroot ips dettepubl

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for dettepubl
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity

6
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.1178 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -0.9027
Z-t-tilde-bar 3.6232 0.9999

. xtunitroot ips TCRréel

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for TCRréel
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.5832 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.4457
Z-t-tilde-bar -0.6105 0.2708

. xtunitroot ips soldebude

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for soldebude
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity

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Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -2.6437 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -2.1677
Z-t-tilde-bar -6.2396 0.0000

. xtunitroot ips tauxdinflation

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for tauxdinflation
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -3.1825 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -2.4158
Z-t-tilde-bar -8.1740 0.0000

. xtunitroot ips PIBtête

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for PIBtête
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity

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Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.0288 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -0.8807
Z-t-tilde-bar 3.7946 0.9999
. xtunitroot ips tauxdintérêt
Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for tauxdintérêt
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -0.0053 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -0.1167
Z-t-tilde-bar 9.7511 1.0000

. xtunitroot ips stabilitépoliti

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for stabilitépoliti
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included

9
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -2.0246 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.6970
Z-t-tilde-bar -2.5695 0.0051

. xtunitroot ips Etatdroit

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for Etatdroit
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.8999 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.6338
Z-t-tilde-bar -2.0772 0.0189

. xtunitroot ips contrôlecorruption

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for contrôlecorruption
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included

10
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.6684 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.4323
Z-t-tilde-bar -0.5057 0.3065

. xtunitroot ips Qualitédelaréglementation

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for Qualitédelaréglementation
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.6217 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.4408
Z-t-tilde-bar -0.5726 0.2835

. xtunitroot ips Voixetresponsabilité

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for Voixetresponsabilité
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included

11
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.8667 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.4045
Z-t-tilde-bar -0.2896 0.3861

.
xtunitroot ips efficacitégouv
Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for efficacitégouv
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -2.0604 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.7476
Z-t-tilde-bar -2.9644 0.0015

. xtunitroot ips Investissementdirectétrangern

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for Investissementdirectétrangern
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity

12
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -2.4199 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.9474
Z-t-tilde-bar -4.5220 0.0000

. xtunitroot ips aideaudéveloppement

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for aideaudéveloppement
Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -2.5026 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -2.0559
Z-t-tilde-bar -5.3677 0.0000

. xtunitroot ips ouverturecommerciale

Im-Pesaran-Shin unit-root test for ouverturecommerciale

Ho: All panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 35
Ha: Some panels are stationary Number of periods = 17
AR parameter: Panel-specific Asymptotics: T,N -> Infinity

13
Panel means: Included sequentially
Time trend: Not included
ADF regressions: No lags included
Fixed-N exact critical values
Statistic p-value 1% 5% 10%
t-bar -1.5605 -1.820 -1.730 -1.690
t-tilde-bar -1.4129
Z-t-tilde-bar -0.3548 0.3614

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