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Tarea 1. Series de Tiempo Gómez Kaiser Adolfo
Tarea 1. Series de Tiempo Gómez Kaiser Adolfo
Alfa 0.4
245.1183237
MES SERIE Pronóstico Y ei abs
31/01/17 47,001.06 47001.06 0
1/02/17 47,009.51 47001.06 8.45
2/02/17 47,095.07 47004.44 90.63
3/02/17 47,225.10 47040.692 184.408
7/02/17 46,728.95 47114.4552 385.5052
8/02/17 46,921.71 46960.25312 38.54312
9/02/17 47,232.17 46944.83587 287.334128
10/02/17 47,797.04 47059.76952 737.2704768
13/02/17 47,661.69 47354.67771 307.0122861
14/02/17 47,391.24 47477.48263 86.24262835
15/02/17 47,161.74 47442.98558 281.245577
16/02/17 47,293.85 47330.48735 36.63734621
17/02/17 47,164.71 47315.83241 151.1224077
20/02/17 47,083.81 47255.38344 171.5734446
21/02/17 47,614.99 47186.75407 428.2359332
22/02/17 47,195.68 47358.04844 162.3684401
23/02/17 47,206.36 47293.10106 86.74106404
24/02/17 47,047.67 47258.40464 210.7346384
27/02/17 47,349.20 47174.11078 175.0892169
28/02/17 46,856.79 47244.14647 387.3564698
1/03/17 47,467.95 47089.20388 378.7461181
2/03/17 47,288.66 47240.70233 47.95767086
3/03/17 47,414.57 47259.8854 154.6846025
6/03/17 47,883.59 47321.75924 561.8307615
7/03/17 47,419.16 47546.49154 127.3315431
8/03/17 47,539.22 47495.55893 43.66107414
9/03/17 47,263.92 47513.02336 249.1033555
10/03/17 47,102.31 47413.38201 311.0720133
13/03/17 47,101.14 47288.95321 187.813208
14/03/17 47,087.97 47213.82792 125.8579248
15/03/17 47,470.31 47163.48475 306.8252451
16/03/17 48,056.56 47286.21485 770.3451471
17/03/17 48,593.44 47594.35291 999.0870882
21/03/17 48,589.05 47993.98775 595.0622529
22/03/17 48,487.30 48232.01265 255.2873518
23/03/17 48,676.91 48334.12759 342.7824111
24/03/17 49,083.85 48471.24055 612.6094466
27/03/17 49,312.99 48716.28433 596.705668
28/03/17 49,339.24 48954.9666 384.2734008
29/03/17 49,036.52 49108.67596 72.15595953
30/03/17 48,863.30 49079.81358 216.5135757
31/03/17 48,541.56 48993.20815 451.6481454
3/04/17 48,819.07 48812.54889 6.521112742
4/04/17 49,342.77 48815.15733 527.6126676
5/04/17 49,207.61 49026.2024 181.4076006
6/04/17 49,012.42 49098.76544 86.34543965
7/04/17 49,343.64 49064.22726 279.4127362
10/04/17 49,540.26 49175.99236 364.2676417
11/04/17 49,637.93 49321.69941 316.230585
12/04/17 48,955.82 49448.19165 492.371649
17/04/17 49,011.56 49251.24299 239.6829894
18/04/17 48,762.53 49155.36979 392.8397936
19/04/17 48,873.84 48998.23388 124.3938762
20/04/17 49,144.96 48948.47633 196.4836743
21/04/17 48,967.83 49027.0698 59.23979542
24/04/17 49,413.26 49003.37388 409.8861227
25/04/17 49,808.05 49167.32833 640.7216736
26/04/17 49,565.16 49423.617 141.5430042
27/04/17 49,440.96 49480.2342 39.27419749
28/04/17 49,261.33 49464.52452 203.1945185
2/05/17 49,588.84 49383.24671 205.5932889
3/05/17 49,099.98 49465.48403 365.5040267
4/05/17 48,998.11 49319.28242 321.172416
5/05/17 49,485.67 49190.81345 294.8565504
8/05/17 49,505.86 49308.75607 197.1039302
9/05/17 49,939.47 49387.59764 551.8723581
10/05/17 49,930.54 49608.34659 322.1934149
11/05/17 49,530.53 49737.22395 206.6939511
12/05/17 49,426.08 49654.54637 228.4663706
15/05/17 49,678.96 49563.15982 115.8001776
16/05/17 49,459.62 49609.47989 149.8598934
17/05/17 48,747.95 49549.53594 801.5859361
18/05/17 48,322.24 49228.90156 906.6615616
19/05/17 49,067.47 48866.23694 201.233063
22/05/17 48,943.46 48946.73016 3.270162189
23/05/17 49,042.52 48945.4221 97.09790269
24/05/17 49,494.40 48984.26126 510.1387416
25/05/17 49,410.92 49188.31676 222.603245
26/05/17 49,688.27 49277.35805 410.911947
29/05/17 49,450.48 49441.72283 8.757168188
30/05/17 49,277.95 49445.2257 167.2756991
31/05/17 48,788.44 49378.31542 589.8754195
1/06/17 49,101.64 49142.36525 40.72525167
2/06/17 49,317.38 49126.07515 191.304849
5/06/17 49,592.49 49202.59709 389.8929094
6/06/17 49,218.62 49358.55425 139.9342544
7/06/17 49,274.97 49302.58055 27.61055262
8/06/17 49,087.46 49291.53633 204.0763316
9/06/17 49,081.73 49209.9058 128.1757989
12/06/17 49,128.76 49158.63548 29.87547937
13/06/17 49,026.83 49146.68529 119.8552876
14/06/17 49,291.03 49098.74317 192.2868274
15/06/17 49,139.70 49175.6579 35.95790354
16/06/17 49,221.03 49161.27474 59.75525787
19/06/17 49,169.57 49185.17685 15.60684528
20/06/17 49,033.05 49178.93411 145.8841072
21/06/17 48,983.45 49120.58046 137.1304643
22/06/17 49,017.43 49065.72828 48.29827858
23/06/17 48,980.78 49046.40897 65.62896715
26/06/17 49,165.67 49020.15738 145.5126197
27/06/17 49,087.74 49078.36243 9.377571827
28/06/17 49,340.11 49082.11346 257.9965431
29/06/17 49,198.12 49185.31207 12.80792586
30/06/17 49,857.49 49190.43524 667.0547555
3/07/17 50,109.16 49457.25715 651.9028533
4/07/17 50,041.58 49718.01829 323.561712
5/07/17 50,300.81 49847.44297 453.3670272
6/07/17 50,015.67 50028.78978 13.11978369
7/07/17 50,059.02 50023.54187 35.47812979
10/07/17 50,616.81 50037.73312 579.0768779
11/07/17 50,510.23 50269.36387 240.8661267
12/07/17 50,809.77 50365.71032 444.059676
13/07/17 50,968.76 50543.33419 425.4258056
14/07/17 51,162.23 50713.50452 448.7254834
17/07/17 51,332.29 50892.99471 439.29529
18/07/17 51,099.71 51068.71283 30.99717401
19/07/17 51,086.93 51081.1117 5.818304408
20/07/17 51,144.14 51083.43902 60.70098265
21/07/17 51,564.62 51107.71941 456.9005896
24/07/17 51,665.65 51290.47965 375.1703538
25/07/17 51,713.38 51440.54779 272.8322123
26/07/17 51,600.26 51549.68067 50.57932735
27/07/17 51,257.36 51569.9124 312.5524036
28/07/17 51,213.60 51444.89144 231.2914422
31/07/17 51,011.87 51352.37487 340.5048653
1/08/17 51,195.01 51216.17292 21.16291918
2/08/17 51,200.13 51207.70775 7.577751505
3/08/17 51,293.07 51204.67665 88.3933491
4/08/17 51,328.29 51240.03399 88.25600946
7/08/17 51,389.27 51275.33639 113.9336057
8/08/17 51,328.76 51320.90984 7.850163405
9/08/17 51,237.50 51324.0499 86.54990196
10/08/17 50,906.84 51289.42994 382.5899412
11/08/17 50,645.10 51136.39396 491.2939647
14/08/17 51,167.47 50939.87638 227.5936212
15/08/17 51,339.29 51030.91383 308.3761727
16/08/17 51,156.67 51154.2643 2.405703624
17/08/17 50,994.18 51155.22658 161.0465778
18/08/17 51,075.46 51090.80795 15.3479467
21/08/17 51,241.11 51084.66877 156.441232
22/08/17 51,332.98 51147.24526 185.7347392
23/08/17 51,280.17 51221.53916 58.63084351
24/08/17 51,470.06 51244.99149 225.0685061
25/08/17 51,373.23 51335.0189 38.21110366
28/08/17 51,266.72 51350.30334 83.5833378
29/08/17 51,313.66 51316.87 3.210002681
30/08/17 51,193.52 51315.586 122.0660016
31/08/17 51,210.48 51266.7596 56.27960097
1/09/17 51,080.85 51244.24776 163.3977606
4/09/17 50,825.77 51178.88866 353.1186563
5/09/17 50,301.39 51037.64119 736.2511938
6/09/17 50,515.60 50743.14072 227.5407163
7/09/17 50,249.12 50652.12443 403.0044298
8/09/17 50,083.80 50490.92266 407.1226579
11/09/17 50,359.32 50328.07359 31.24640528
12/09/17 50,480.96 50340.57216 140.3878432
13/09/17 50,164.88 50396.72729 231.8472941
14/09/17 50,107.86 50303.98838 196.1283765
15/09/17 49,921.84 50225.53703 303.6970259
18/09/17 50,258.42 50104.05822 154.3617845
19/09/17 50,265.46 50165.80293 99.65707068
20/09/17 50,363.95 50205.66576 158.2842424
21/09/17 50,545.75 50268.97945 276.7705454
22/09/17 50,313.51 50379.68767 66.17767273
25/09/17 50,368.17 50353.2166 14.95339636
26/09/17 50,359.47 50359.19796 0.272037816
27/09/17 50,169.13 50359.30678 190.1767773
28/09/17 50,137.00 50283.23607 146.2360664
29/09/17 50,346.06 50224.74164 121.3183602
2/10/17 50,501.16 50273.26898 227.8910161
3/10/17 50,615.29 50364.42539 250.8646097
4/10/17 50,565.29 50464.77123 100.5187658
5/10/17 50,480.92 50504.97874 24.05874052
6/10/17 50,302.96 50495.35524 192.3952443
9/10/17 50,071.94 50418.39715 346.4571466
10/10/17 49,982.94 50279.81429 296.874288
11/10/17 50,139.68 50161.06457 21.38457277
12/10/17 49,962.79 50152.51074 189.7207437
13/10/17 49,981.94 50076.62245 94.6824462
16/10/17 49,721.01 50038.74947 317.7394677
17/10/17 50,140.52 49911.65368 228.8663194
18/10/17 49,938.98 50003.20021 64.22020838
19/10/17 50,000.25 49977.51213 22.73787497
20/10/17 49,988.71 49986.60728 2.102724984
23/10/17 49,548.13 49987.44837 439.318365
24/10/17 50,157.22 49811.72102 345.498981
25/10/17 48,876.46 49949.92061 1073.460611
26/10/17 48,986.84 49520.53637 533.6963668
27/10/17 49,209.58 49307.05782 97.47782011
30/10/17 48,855.27 49268.06669 412.7966921
31/10/17 48,625.53 49102.94802 477.4180152
1/11/17 48,334.45 48911.98081 577.5308091
3/11/17 48,534.84 48680.96849 146.1284855
6/11/17 48,967.01 48622.51709 344.4929087
7/11/17 49,004.52 48760.31425 244.2057452
8/11/17 48,835.69 48857.99655 22.30655286
9/11/17 48,713.51 48849.07393 135.5639317
10/11/17 48,028.30 48794.84836 766.548359
13/11/17 48,002.43 48488.22902 485.7990154
14/11/17 47,873.65 48293.90941 420.2594093
15/11/17 47,690.80 48125.80565 435.0056456
16/11/17 47,747.69 47951.80339 204.1133873
17/11/17 47,857.14 47870.15803 13.0180324
21/11/17 48,185.71 47864.95082 320.7591806
22/11/17 48,196.89 47993.25449 203.6355083
23/11/17 48,136.24 48074.70869 61.531305
24/11/17 47,941.88 48099.32122 157.441217
27/11/17 47,275.32 48036.34473 761.0247302
28/11/17 47,229.16 47731.93484 502.7748381
29/11/17 47,622.93 47530.8249 92.10509713
30/11/17 47,092.44 47567.66694 475.2269417
1/12/17 47,265.31 47377.57617 112.266165
4/12/17 47,161.32 47332.6697 171.349699
5/12/17 47,462.79 47264.12982 198.6601806
6/12/17 46,973.30 47343.59389 370.2938916
7/12/17 46,987.01 47195.47633 208.466335
8/12/17 47,572.86 47112.0898 460.770199
11/12/17 47,699.04 47296.39788 402.6421194
13/12/17 48,276.72 47457.45473 819.2652716
14/12/17 48,222.38 47785.16084 437.219163
15/12/17 48,081.55 47960.0485 121.5014978
18/12/17 48,634.54 48008.6491 625.8908987
19/12/17 48,403.03 48259.00546 144.0245392
20/12/17 48,390.39 48316.61528 73.77472352
21/12/17 48,503.31 48346.12517 157.1848341
22/12/17 48,387.93 48408.9991 21.06909953
26/12/17 48,451.33 48400.57146 50.75854028
27/12/17 48,652.56 48420.87488 231.6851242
28/12/17 48,861.94 48513.54893 348.3910745
29/12/17 49,354.42 48652.90536 701.5146447
2/01/18 50,033.95 48933.51121 1100.438787
3/01/18 49,782.23 49373.68673 408.5432721
4/01/18 49,744.62 49537.10404 207.5159633
5/01/18 49,887.74 49620.11042 267.629578
8/01/18 49,995.57 49727.16225 268.4077468
9/01/18 49,701.37 49834.52535 133.1553519
10/01/18 48,785.25 49781.26321 996.0132112
11/01/18 48,799.39 49382.85793 583.4679267
12/01/18 49,135.91 49149.47076 13.56075602
15/01/18 49,387.28 49144.04645 243.2335464
16/01/18 49,491.72 49241.33987 250.3801278
17/01/18 49,732.30 49341.49192 390.8080767
18/01/18 49,911.97 49497.81515 414.154846
19/01/18 49,695.56 49663.47709 32.08290761
22/01/18 49,974.48 49676.31026 298.1697446
23/01/18 50,260.25 49795.57815 464.6718467
24/01/18 50,746.93 49981.44689 765.483108
25/01/18 50,777.90 50287.64014 490.2598648
26/01/18 51,065.49 50483.74408 581.7459189
29/01/18 50,636.32 50716.44245 80.12244866
30/01/18 50,382.86 50684.39347 301.5334692
31/01/18 50,270.04 50563.78008 293.7400815
Chart Title
60,000.00
50,000.00
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20,000.00
10,000.00
0.00
31/01/17 3/03/17 3/04/17 3/05/17 3/06/17 3/07/17 3/08/17 3/09/17
Alfa 0.3
t Yt S't S''t at bt Ŷt
abs(ei)/yi
0% Chart Title
0%
53,000.00
0%
52,000.00
0%
51,000.00
1%
50,000.00
0%
49,000.00
0%
48,000.00
1%
47,000.00
1%
46,000.00
0%
45,000.00
1%
44,000.00
0%
31/01/17 31/03/17 31/05/17 31/07/17
1%
1% Yt Y est
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
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1%
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SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL DE WINTER RECM=
EAM=
Alfa= 0.7 Beta= 0.3 Gama= 0.3 EAPM=
t Yt Lt Tt St Y t est e
14.7285 0% Yt Y t est
41.0910231 0%
17.6581364 0%
151.899871 0%
39.9959692 0%
95.3381988 0%
10.8856028 0%
75.1892955 0%
305.2219 1%
139.386823 0%
65.6446426 0%
46.491088 0%
206.153092 0%
76.3924592 0%
105.209744 0%
15.0073771 0%
62.233897 0%
50.0456491 0%
48.6039794 0%
15.9804597 0%
140.745903 0%
250.616862 1%
223.700441 0%
132.05866 0%
85.9608788 0%
179.119761 0%
244.692939 0%
262.844292 1%
147.503757 0%
63.9648856 0%
83.562278 0%
73.8630154 0%
102.816802 0%
86.4060254 0%
34.4650655 0%
20.8772975 0%
77.685571 0%
159.669888 0%
60.0453236 0%
66.2440581 0%
118.526831 0%
87.4712414 0%
56.0758313 0%
6.96221643 0%
54.5895804 0%
198.376368 0%
142.488794 0%
62.3863884 0%
68.5510672 0%
36.4378675 0%
58.9193901 0%
153.681218 0%
1.94906351 0%
16.7364744 0%
144.888067 0%
202.408949 0%
60.5734463 0%
61.3012215 0%
20.9998686 0%
45.3309729 0%
126.805905 0%
367.247663 1%
118.948347 0%
60.8422659 0%
58.3729962 0%
98.9975816 0%
65.0839471 0%
149.539324 0%
106.524729 0%
71.2441376 0%
139.118281 0%
98.428191 0%
6.32016742 0%
152.886408 0%
18.728232 0%
4.44572781 0%
59.3545819 0%
87.3588226 0%
50.871628 0%
90.6177988 0%
21.2606314 0%
7.59689727 0%
50.9064081 0%
41.3035901 0%
11.6760714 0%
48.2576459 0%
22.7733845 0%
40.8621011 0%
26.4100394 0%
11.7522521 0%
58.2506894 0%
36.8506879 0%
105.992331 0%
214.427974 0%
163.617774 0%
223.299177 0%
111.54458 0%
18.9494261 0%
163.415188 0%
116.217525 0%
147.639239 0%
160.305391 0%
162.776835 0%
209.098614 0%
89.9099442 0%
17.222071 0%
18.9304053 0%
89.7338595 0%
146.365261 0%
167.838417 0%
121.197172 0%
8.98918395 0%
44.2988952 0%
121.942358 0%
66.8856805 0%
46.0211129 0%
1.33865216 0%
18.167973 0%
41.3159933 0%
14.8876793 0%
5.69394097 0%
67.9021449 0%
195.313465 0%
37.4063441 0%
86.1803675 0%
69.3412646 0%
15.84102 0%
33.0047678 0%
6.76432104 0%
49.2712037 0%
17.3949362 0%
68.9529758 0%
48.0976908 0%
1.5547409 0%
23.0236622 0%
27.0239046 0%
26.1222383 0%
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23.9436107 0%
126.554317 0%
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243.907606 1%
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182.678718 0%
18.707719 0%
1/07/17