Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 50(6) December 2005 949

Estimation by photogrammetry of the glacier

recession on the Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador)
between 1956 and 1997

E. JORDAN1, L. UNGERECHTS1, B. CÁCERES2, A. PEÑAFIEL3

& B. FRANCOU4
1 Institute of Geography, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf, Universitätsstrasse 1,
D-40225 Düsseldorf, Germany
jordane@uni-duesseldorf.de
2 INAMHI, Iñaquito y Corea 700, Quito, Ecuador
3 Instituto Geográfico Militar, AP 17-12 857, Quito, Ecuador
4 Research Unit Great Ice, IRD, CP 9214, La Paz, Bolivia
francou@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr

Abstract Aerial photographs of the Cotopaxi Volcano ice cap dating from 1956 to 1997
were used to quantify the evolution of the surface area. Results were obtained using
precise stereoscopic methods that give the most accurate information. In addition four
specific glacier tongues were investigated in detail to measure the ice mass lost between
1976 and 1997. Surprisingly, the bedrock morphology is shown to be very irregular and
this explains a large extent of the variability found in the ice losses. The results show
that glaciers stagnated from 1956 to 1976 and lost about 30% of their surface area
between 1976 and 1997. Slope exposure did not seem to have any significant effect since
all the glaciers of the volcano retreated in the same proportion. In accordance with spe-
cific measurements performed on the nearby Antizana 15 Glacier, it is suggested that the
strong recession observed after 1976 was associated with increasing melting conditions
which have occurred repeatedly during the intense/long-duration warm ENSO phases.
Key words climatic change; Cotopaxi Volcano; Ecuador; glacier retreat; photogrammetry;
South America
Estimation par photogrammétrie de la récession glaciaire sur le
Volcan Cotopaxi (Equateur) entre 1956 et 1997
Résumé Des photographies aériennes de 1956 à 1997 de la calotte glaciaire du Volcan
Cotopaxi ont été utilisées pour quantifier l’évolution de sa surface. Les résultats ont été
obtenus grâce à des méthodes précises de stéréoscopie qui donnent l’information la plus
juste. En outre, quatre glaciers émissaires spécifiques ont été étudiés en détail afin de
mesurer la perte massique de glace entre 1976 et 1997. De façon surprenante, la
morphologie du substrat rocheux apparaît être très irrégulière et cela explique une
grande part de la variabilité observée dans les pertes de glace. Les résultats montrent que
les glaciers ont stagné entre 1956 et 1976, puis ont perdu environ 30% de leur surface
entre 1976 et 1997. L’exposition ne semble pas avoir eu d’effet significatif dans la
mesure où tous les glaciers du volcan présentent des reculs respectant les mêmes
proportions. En accord avec des mesures spécifiques réalisées sur un glacier proche,
l’Antizana 15, on suggère que la forte récession observée après 1976 est associée à des
conditions de fonte croissante, répétitives lors des phases chaudes intenses/de longue
durée de l’ENSO.
Mots clefs changement climatique; Volcan Cotopaxi; Equateur; recul glaciaire;
photogrammétrie; Amérique du Sud

INTRODUCTION

The accelerated melting of glaciers in the tropical Andes is broadly discussed as a

result of climatic change occurring at high altitude (Hastenrath & Ames, 1995;
Francou et al., 2000; Kaser & Osmaston, 2002; Francou et al., 2004; Favier et al.,
2004b). The various types of sources, such as drawings, pictures, aerial photographs

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950 E. Jordan et al.

and geodetically measured points in the glacier fields are used to quantify glacier
recession or advances. The historic snout positions of glaciers determined by those
means are compared to the recent locations in order to determine the amount of
change. This two-dimensional determination of area losses is often useful to estimate
ice volume changes and to reconstruct average mass balance between fixed dates
(Linder 1991, 1993; Ramirez et al., 2001). In this paper, the digital photogrammetric
method is presented as a useful tool to map the recent positions of the Cotopaxi ice cap
and to quantify the retreat and volume loss over the last 50 years. This study is the first
attempt in Ecuador to describe in detail the recession of an extensive ice body.

STUDY AREA

Cotopaxi (5897 m a.s.l., 0°40′S, 78°25′W) is one of the most extensive ice-capped
volcanos of Ecuador. It is located in the central part of the Andes, 60 km southeast of
the capital Quito. This volcano was strongly active in the last few centuries with one
major eruptive event per century, on average. The most recent eruptions occurred in
1742–1744, 1768 and 1877 (Barberi et al., 1995). These eruptions often generated
extensive lahars which incurred serious damage in the directions of Latacunga (south)
and Quito Valley (north) (Mothes et al., 2004). Due to the increasing urbanization in
these sectors, damage could be much more dramatic in the case of a major event.
Hence, it is important to quantify the ice mass susceptible to melt in case of eruption
(Cáceres et al., 2004). The aim of this study is to use photogrammetry to quantify the
evolution of the area and the volume covered by the glacier between 1956 and 1997.

DATA SETTING AND METHODS TO ESTIMATE GLACIERIZED AREAS

Cotopaxi is one of the best documented ice caps in Ecuador. Aerial photographs exist
for this sector since 1956; they cover the complete area of the ice cap and have the
advantage of overlapping each other, offering the possibility to measure glaciers in
three dimensions. Therefore, it is possible to calculate precise volume changes by
measuring two or more glacier surface models of different photo series at various times
and then subtracting them from each other. All existing photographs were collected
and revised for interpretability. Photographs from some years, such as 2000, were
rejected because of their poor quality or the presence of clouds. Finally, the aerial
photographs for the years 1956, 1963, 1976 and 1997 were used (Table 1).
In order to analyse the pictures, a digital photogrammetry software package was
selected as it offers better interpretation possibilities compared to traditional analytical
or semi-analytical devices. The images were first scanned to make them accessible to
the software. For the photographs of 1997 a photogrammetric scanner (ZI-Imagescann
2001®) was used. The images show a high geometric precision (3 µm error) and a good
contrast, as well as a high resolution (14 µm). All the other aerial photographs were
scanned with a commercial scanner (Epson Expression 1640 XL®). These pictures
have a lower geometric resolution (21 µm), a poor image definition and a higher
geometric error (about 30 µm). In the next step, photographs were imported into the
digital photogrammetry software LISA FOTO 4.0® (developed by Wilfried Linder at
the Heinrich-Heine-Universität, Düsseldorf, Germany). The camera calibration protocol

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 Estimation by photogrammetry of the glacier recession on the Cotopaxi Volcano 951

Table 1 Description of the aerial pictures used in the project.

Year Scale Number of photos Image quality Colour photos
1997 1:30 000 13 Very good Yes
1976 1:30 000 6 Good No
1963 1:30 000 9 Poor No
1956 1:30 000 5 Poor No

of the 1997 flight was the only one available, while for the other flights approximated
calibration values were defined using the known focal distance and by measuring the
positions of the fiducial marks in the LISA FOTO 4.0® software. The results can be
considered as good for 1997 (1/3 pixel RMSE) and average for 1976, 1963 and 1956
(1 pixel RMSE).
In the next phase, images had to be connected by identifying and measuring
common points in the photographs. Measurement was accomplished using the software
IMATIE® (developed by Michael Braitmeier at the Heinrich-Heine-Universität,
Düsseldorf). All the images of one flight were connected with 24 tie points per image
pair. In almost all the cases the tie points were transferred into at least two additional
images. At the end of all the above processes, each tie point has a mathematical over-
determination when used in further calculations. The first photos to be connected were
those of 1997 because of their good quality. Identical points were measured in the
different years in order to create a multitemporal photogrammetric block. The
procedure has the further advantage that ground control points have to be measured in
the photos of just one flight. For this reason a net of 13 carefully planned ground
control points was measured on the basis of objects which could be identified in the
photographs of 1997 and in the field. The planned ground control points were
measured in the field using a differential GPS PROMARK 2® (Thales Navigation).
The campaign resulted in high quality ground control points with centimetre-scale
precision. After determining the coordinates of the control points, they were measured
in the 1997 image. Because of the image resolution, objects of up to just 60 cm could
be identified in the aerial photographs; however, it was sometimes impossible to
determine the location of a point with one pixel precision due to the complex terrain
and a lack of infrastructure. In this study, accuracy of 5 m horizontal and 1 m vertical
was achieved.
After completion of this procedure, a bundle block adjustment was calculated,
taking into account all previously processed data. For the completion of this calcula-
tion the programmes BLUH® (developed by Carsten Jakobsen at the IPI Hannover,
Germany) and BINGO 4.0® (from Erwin Krug) were used. The basic result was the
determination of the projection centre and orientation of the camera for each photo-
graph. It has to be taken into account that, due to their better quality and resolution, the
accuracy of the 1997 pictures was higher than that of the older ones. Only the 1956
pictures were problematic because of their poor image quality and scale. Moreover, the
indicated focal distance seemed to be imprecise and, as result, the images suffered
from a slight Y-parallax and a 3–10-m displacement from the other images.
The last phase of the study, the measurement of three-dimensional terrain
coordinates, was then carried out. This task was performed on the adjusted photo-
graphs without problems and half a million points were thus digitized manually in the

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952 E. Jordan et al.

1997 photos with half a metre precision in order to describe the glacier surface and its
near surroundings. Automatic stereo correlation methods allowed the surface to be
calculated without the need of a human operator, but lacked the adequate precision
required by this project. The failure of the programme’s algorithms can be explained
by the poor contrast on the glacier surface. On the basis of the measured points, an
error-free 5-m surface digital model was generated using a TIN-interpolation.

ESTIMATION OF GLACIER CHANGES SINCE 1956

Glacier area changes from 1956 to 1997

A colour orthophoto was derived from the digital terrain model (DTM) and the images
of 1997. The high resolution of the picture made it possible to map each glacier and to

Fig. 1 Orthophoto showing the Cotopaxi Volcano (78°71′W, 0°91′S) in 1997 with
UTM coordinates.

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 Estimation by photogrammetry of the glacier recession on the Cotopaxi Volcano 953

determine the lower limits of the tongues and the current snow line with good accuracy
(Fig. 1). In addition, glacier limits of the years 1956, 1963, 1976 and 1997 were
digitized. This task was accomplished by using stereo models, photo-interpretation and
the glacier morphology. The delimitation of the glacier in 1997 was easily accomp-
lished, but the images of 1976 were more difficult to analyse because of areas covered
by fresh snow. To solve these difficulties, easily distinguishable parts of the glacier
areas were first digitized, then the suspect areas were completed by comparing stereo-
scopically the morphology of 1997 and 1976. By this methodology it was possible to
digitize the complete 1976 limits. The results obtained differ locally from the pub-
lished map by Jordan (1983) and the differences can be explained by the advanced
technology of the present photogrammetric software.
The result of comparison between 1997 and 1976 shows a significant loss of about
30% of ice-covered area (Fig. 2). In order to analyse the space distribution of the
glacier, recession zones, originally developed by Jordan (1983), are used and presented

Fig. 2 Retreat of the Cotopaxi glaciers between 1976 (outer fringe) and 1997. Glaciers
are numbered clockwise from the north.

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954 E. Jordan et al.

in Fig. 2. This zonation shows a decrease in the glacierized areas ranging between
5.6% for zone 16 and 39.9% for zone 1 that differs significantly from the mean value
30% (Table 2). These variations might be linked to the morphological characteristics
of the bedrock and the slope exposure. To clarify these assumptions, the decrease in
glacierized areas was considered for the four major directions, north, east, south and
west (Fig. 2 and Table 2). It shows that the glacier recession for these four directions is
within very narrow limits (27.5–31.2%). Hence, slope exposure does not seem to be a
significant factor controlling the variability of the retreat and, in particular, the glaciers
situated on the side receiving the most significant precipitation (eastern side) have
experienced a retreat quite similar to the other ones. Moreover, the maximum and
minimum retreats observed for individual tongues might vary more considerably in a
range of about 70–970 m. This discrepancy reveals important effects of the
morphology of glaciers, ice thickness and concentration of fluxes into deep subglacial
canyons as found by a recent geophysical prospection using a Ground Penetrating
Radar (GPR) (Cáceres et al., 2004).
To evaluate the glacier changes over a longer period, the images from 1963 and
1956 were also analysed. In these images the interpretation was severely handicapped
by fresh snow, bad photo quality and small scale. Therefore, even a multitemporal
stereoscopic comparison did not allow more than local reconstructions of the glacier’s

Table 2 Area lost by the glacier for the zones introduced in Fig. 2, the separate sides and the whole
glacier. The glacier area loss (fourth column) is with respect to surface area in 1976.
Zone Area covered by Area covered by Difference between Glacier area loss
glacier in 1976 glacier in 1997 the 1976 and 1997 between 1976 and
(m2) (m2) areas 1997
(m2) (%)
1 1 350 507 811 242 539 265 39.9
2 1 004 774 691 041 313 733 31.2
3 748 158 581 201 164 956 22.1
4 1 081 371 791 710 289 661 26.8
5 1 119 627 790 703 328 924 29.4
6 1 289 481 909 888 379 593 29.4
7 1 427 014 992 018 434 996 30.5
8 1 729 910 1 136 574 593 336 34.3
9 1 069 608 668 534 401 074 37.5
10 1 011 824 728 380 283 444 28.0
11 1 552 412 1 148 826 403 586 26.0
12 1 171 279 869 653 301 626 25.8
13 631 225 434 511 196 713 31.2
14 1 177 174 800 664 376 510 32.0
15 567 529 336 928 230 600 40.6
16 387 348 365 765 21 583 5.6
17 426 872 350 016 76 855 18.0
18 585 191 427 388 157 804 27.0
19 865 425 614 069 251 355 29.0
N flank (19, 1–4) 5 048 234 3 489 263 1 558 970 30.9
E flank (5–8) 5 566 032 3 829 183 1 736 848 31.2
S flank (9–13) 5 436 348 3 849 905 1 586 443 29.2
W flank (14–18) 3 144 113 2 280 761 863 352 27.5
All zones (1-19) 19 194 726 13 449 113 5 745 613 29.9

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 Estimation by photogrammetry of the glacier recession on the Cotopaxi Volcano 955

former limits. Despite these drawbacks, a comparison of these picture sets with those
from 1976 and 1997 showed a significant trend. The glacier limits from 1956 and 1963
were found to be almost the same as those in the photographs of 1976. This observa-
tion strongly suggests that the Cotopaxi glaciers have not fluctuated significantly
between 1956 and 1976, a contrasting situation to the accelerated retreat determined
between 1976 and 1997.

Ice volume loss measurements between 1976 and 1997 in selected zones
To specify the ice volume lost by glaciers in several areas, four high-precision DTMs
were created at the largest glacier tongues—one every side of the Cotopaxi identified
on the photos of 1976 (Fig. 3). For this, about 40 000 points were collected manually.
The surface of the entire glacier has still not been determined because of the enormous
quantity of time required. To obtain the ice mass lost between 1976 and 1997, the
DTMs were subtracted from each other. The results are shown in Figs 4–7. The
following conclusions have been drawn from the comparison between the two
surfaces, separated by about 21years:

Fig. 3 Locations of the four precision DTMs (shaded) and the glacier’s limits in 1976
(outer limit) and 1997 (inner limit).

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956 E. Jordan et al.

Fig. 4 Map of glacier retreat in the northern sector (see Fig. 3) from 1976 to 1997
showing the limits of the glacier in 1976 (outer line) and 1997 (inner line) and
contour-bound ranges of ice loss after subtraction of 1976 and 1997 surfaces. Ranges
are shaded from light to dark according to the ice volume lost: clear 0–10 m, light grey
10–20 m, grey 20–30 m, dark grey 30–40 m, including sectors of 40–50 m.
Topographic contour lines: 10 m.

– On the four maps, the mass balance isolines feature an ice loss increasing upstream
from the glacier limit of 1976, which peaks just beyond and behind the glacier
limit of 1997; such an ice wastage is consistent with the bevelled morphology of
the glacier snouts when retreating rapidly (observed on present snout).
– Glaciers near the snout lost an ice thickness up to 78 m. Given an average density
for ice of 0.9 g cm-3, the ice lost (in w.e.) by the Cotopaxi at 4800–5000 m a.s.l. is
consistent with the mean mass balance measured at the same elevation range on
the Antizana 15 Glacier, i.e. about 3–4 m w.e. year-1 on average for the 1995–2002
period (Cáceres et al., 2003).

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 Estimation by photogrammetry of the glacier recession on the Cotopaxi Volcano 957

Fig. 5 Map of glacier retreat in the eastern sector. See Fig. 4 for details.

– The total ice depth removed from the tongue during the period from 1975 to 1997
(20–50 m) is consistent with the 30-40 m loss generally estimated in the ablation
zone of the present northern and southern glaciers from GPR measurements
(Cáceres et al., 2004).
– On the other hand, there is a clear discrepancy in the photogrammetric method
when it depicts surface changes outside of the 1997 glacier limits, particularly on
the northern and eastern sectors (Figs 4 and 5).
The accuracy obtained by the applied method using the photographs of 1979 is
restricted to 1–5 m. Using better resolution images, as was the case with the aerial
photographs of 1997, future investigations will lead to decimetre accuracy. The present
results obtained by the photogrammetric method of evaluating the ice loss is a good
alternative to the field mass balance observations in order to cover larger glaciers.

DISCUSSION
The results show the smaller changes in the glacier limits during the 1956–1976 period
compared with the very strong glacier recession discovered from 1976 to 1997. It
suggests that different climatic conditions have occurred during the two periods. The
only previous investigation performed on another Ecuadorian glacier, applying
terrestrial and glaciological methods, has concerned the nearby Glacier 15 issued from
the Antizana ice cap located 10 km northeast of the Cotopaxi Volcano (Francou et al.,
2000). It was found by photogrammetry and field measurements that, between 1956
and 1997, this glacier lost about 30% of its surface area, i.e. similarly to the retreat
magnitude observed on the Cotopaxi ice cap. But the periods of reference are different

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958 E. Jordan et al.

Fig. 6 Map of glacier retreat in the southeastern sector. See Fig. 4 for details.

and do not allow one to determine the key date from which the recession of the
glaciers of Antizana has accelerated. Nevertheless, it is known from studies performed
on glaciers in Peru and Bolivia over the last decades (Ames & Francou, 1995; Francou
et al., 2000; Ramirez et al., 2001) that most of glaciers in the central Andes have been
receding rapidly since 1976–1980. The Pacific climate shift of 1976/77 (e.g.
Ebbesmeyer et al., 1991) has been suggested as the origin of important climatic
changes in the central Andes (e.g. Vuille et al., 2000a). Since the Pacific climate shift
took place, warm ENSO events have been more frequent and have impacted various
climatic characteristics (Trenberth & Stepaniak, 2001). This has resulted in rapid
changes for glaciers near the Equator. All the recent studies have also shown that mass
balance was strictly governed by climatic conditions in the tropical Pacific domain
(Francou et al., 2003, 2004). The mechanisms of transmission of the sea-surface
temperature anomaly (SSTa) of the central Pacific towards the Andean glaciers are

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 Estimation by photogrammetry of the glacier recession on the Cotopaxi Volcano 959

Fig. 7 Map of glacier retreat in the western sector. See Fig. 4 for details.

complex and can change with latitude (Favier et al., 2004b). These mechanisms in-
volve a deficit of precipitation during the summer/wet period in Bolivia and during the
February–May months in Ecuador (Vuille et al., 2000b), which directly affects the
albedo and the melting rates at the glacier surface (Wagnon et al., 2001; Francou et al.,
2004). In this intense melting period the snow/rain limit moved up to 4900–5000 m on
the glacier surface, which resulted in less accumulation and further in a negative mass
balance for those years (Favier et al., 2004a; Francou et al., 2004). Between 1976 and
1997 the equatorial Pacific has been abnormally warm for more than 15 years. On the
other hand, the cold conditions were more frequent during the 1956–1976 period with
more than 10 occurrences (see http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.mei). As a conse-
quence, all the glaciers investigated in the Andes, including the Cotopaxi ice cap, show a
mass balance close to the equilibrium before 1976–1980 (Ames & Francou, 1995;
Francou et al., 2000; Ramirez et al., 2001), a situation which was reversed after this date.
Finally, it can be added that the glacier recession on the Cotopaxi Volcano was
particularly marked during the last decades because of the conical form of the ice cap,
a geometry which led to many surface areas below the equilibrium line altitude to be
exposed to strong ablation conditions.

CONCLUSION

Stereoscopic evaluation of recent aerial photographs is a convenient method to

describe glacial evolution when field mass balance data are limited or not available.

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960 E. Jordan et al.

The method applied shows that the present methodology allows high-precision photo-
grammetric determination of glacier area loss and volume change determination when
photographs are taken in good conditions. In the case of Cotopaxi, it does not present a
homogenous area but a locally complex morphology controlled by the bedrock
material. Therefore, it is only possible to estimate the evolution of the ice mass using a
dense net of local measurements which covers the whole investigation area. The
comparison of the glacier evolution in the 1956–1976 period is marked with
stagnation, and a area reduction of about 30% from 1976 to 1997 is in agreement with
other studies performed in Bolivia and Peru. All these studies show that the glacier
recession clearly accelerated from the late 1970s, consistent with assumptions from
Bendix (2004). This assumption explains the starting of the recent glacier shrinkage of
the nearby Antizana 15 Glacier. In addition it is suggested that conditions which could
have favoured mass balance deficits are driven first by an increasing atmospheric
temperature, which allowed rain precipitation to occur at high elevation, and second by
precipitation deficits concomitant with warm years. This occurrence was coincident
with ENSO warm events which were more frequent after the “Pacific shift” of 1976. In
order to make a reliable statement about the ice mass loss on Cotopaxi between 1976
and 1997, a complete digital surface model still has to be measured for the year 1976.

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Received 17 November 2004; accepted 3 August 2005

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