TABLE A.19.

EUROPEAN UNION, 1998 REVISION

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

148

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.19 (continued)

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

149

TABLE A.20. EUROPEAN UNION, REPLACEMENT MIGRATION SCENARIOS

EUROPEAN UNION
Scenario
Period

I
Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

A. Average annual net migration (thousands)

1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Grand total 1995-2050

574
470
346
308
274
250
210
210
210
210
210

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
263
521
663
742
869
1 032
1 216
1 351
1 416
1 418

46
396
545
1 596
1 938
2 424
2 814
2 407
1 593
1 063
1 097

0
0
0
0
417
8 550
10 210
8 176
3 376
0
0

5 302
6 171
5 095
9 012
9 557
12 947
18 312
20 346
18 724
16 483
18 153

16 361

47 456

79 605

153 646

700 506

371 937
372 680
373 390
373 590
378 554
385 344
394 551
405 592
414 173
418 003
418 422
418 509

371 937
372 440
371 065
368 232
364 428
362 130
401 916
453 687
498 026
518 590
520 307
519 965

371 937
400 089
433 063
461 257
510 650
565 699
641 056
748 324
871 833
992 383
1 104 897
1 228 341

249 382
249 382
249 382
249 382
249 382
249 382
249 382
249 382
249 382
249 382
249 382
249 382

249 382
249 213
247 737
245 587
239 387
232 969
254 334
282 380
306 897
319 230
322 718
325 575

249 382
268 773
291 712
311 918
344 093
379 072
426 112
492 818
570 480
647 667
721 736
803 974

4.31
4.06
3.80
3.60
3.28
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.01
3.03

4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31
4.31

B. Total population (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

371 937
375 276
376 478
375 694
373 831
371 125
367 342
362 201
355 783
348 281
340 013
331 307

371 937
372 440
371 065
368 232
364 428
359 936
354 500
347 891
339 947
330 878
321 049
310 839

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

249 382
251 299
251 625
250 909
245 947
239 216
230 090
218 698
207 975
199 716
193 479
187 851

249 382
249 213
247 737
245 587
239 387
231 427
221 083
208 594
196 861
187 775
180 834
174 470

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

4.31
4.08
3.83
3.64
3.33
3.04
2.73
2.39
2.14
2.02
1.97
1.96

371 937
372 440
372 440
372 440
372 440
372 440
372 440
372 440
372 440
372 440
372 440
372 440

C. Age group 15-64 (thousands)

249 382
249 213
248 709
248 563
245 055
240 285
233 826
226 054
219 920
217 056
216 656
216 929

D. Potential support ratio 15-64/65 or older

150

4.31
4.06
3.80
3.60
3.28
2.98
2.66
2.32
2.07
1.94
1.90
1.89

4.31
4.06
3.81
3.64
3.34
3.07
2.78
2.48
2.26
2.18
2.18
2.21

4.31
4.06
3.82
3.65
3.39
3.17
2.94
2.69
2.51
2.43
2.41
2.41

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.20 (continued)

EUROPEAN UNION
Scenario
Period

I
Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

E. Age group 65 or older (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

57 815
61 596
65 725
68 903
73 844
78 599
84 326
91 378
97 012
99 073
98 024
95 600

57 815
61 349
65 179
68 186
72 975
77 580
83 096
89 889
95 173
96 772
95 184
92 240

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

15.5
16.4
17.5
18.3
19.8
21.2
23.0
25.2
27.3
28.4
28.8
28.9

15.5
16.5
17.6
18.5
20.0
21.6
23.4
25.8
28.0
29.2
29.6
29.7

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

64 740
62 380
59 127
55 882
54 040
53 310
52 926
52 125
50 796
49 492
48 510
47 856

64 740
61 879
58 149
54 459
52 066
50 929
50 320
49 409
47 913
46 331
45 031
44 130

57 815
61 349
65 227
68 348
73 311
78 147
83 973
91 199
97 123
99 665
99 381
98 067

57 815
61 357
65 263
68 400
73 547
78 683
84 964
92 808
99 413
102 672
103 268
103 280

57 815
61 349
65 179
68 186
72 975
77 656
84 778
94 127
102 299
106 410
107 144
107 603

57 815
62 310
67 628
72 312
79 772
87 881
98 786
114 250
132 255
150 149
167 321
186 386

15.5
16.5
17.5
18.3
19.4
20.4
21.5
22.9
24.0
24.6
24.7
24.7

15.5
16.5
17.6
18.5
20.0
21.4
21.1
20.7
20.5
20.5
20.6
20.7

15.5
15.6
15.6
15.7
15.6
15.5
15.4
15.3
15.2
15.1
15.1
15.2

64 740
61 941
58 745
55 808
55 625
57 278
60 204
63 402
65 378
65 949
65 772
65 846

64 740
61 879
58 149
54 459
52 066
51 505
62 805
77 181
88 831
92 951
90 445
86 786

64 740
69 006
73 723
77 027
86 785
98 747
116 157
141 256
169 098
194 567
215 841
237 981

F. Percentage in age group 65 or older

15.5
16.5
17.5
18.4
19.7
21.0
22.5
24.5
26.1
26.8
26.7
26.3

G. Age group 0-14 (thousands)

64 740
61 879
58 504
55 529
54 074
54 008
54 641
55 187
55 397
55 719
56 403
57 445

H. Potential support ratio in 2050 by age at entry into non-working-age population

Age
65
70
75
80

1.96
2.77
4.12
6.81

1.89
2.66
3.94
6.50

2.21
3.12
4.62
7.61

2.41
3.43
5.09
8.37

3.03
4.24
6.20
10.07

4.31
6.34
9.87
17.14

NOTE: The six scenarios can be described briefly as follows:

I Corresponds to the medium variant of the official United Nations population projections (World Population Prospects, 1998 Revision).
II This scenario amends the medium variant by assuming no migration after 1995.
III This scenario keeps the total population figure constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
IV This scenario keeps the number of persons aged 15-64 constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
V This scenario prevents the ratio of persons aged 15-64 to persons aged 65 and above from falling below 3.0.
VI This scenario keeps the ratio of persons aged 15-64 and above at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
This scenario is considered to be demographically unrealistic.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

151