années: mois: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 total annuel

2016 171,466,686.00 MAD 111,302,819.00 MAD 100,172,537.00 MAD 98,705,283.00 MAD 103,678,576.00 MAD 126,830,362.00 MAD 146,614,916.00 MAD 128,153,425.00 MAD 111,063,082.00 MAD 99,956,774.00 MAD 114,950,290.00 MAD 171,142,834.00 MAD 1,484,037,584.00 MAD
2017 180,491,248.00 MAD 117,160,862.00 MAD 105,444,776.00 MAD 103,900,298.00 MAD 109,135,343.00 MAD 133,505,644.00 MAD 154,331,491.00 MAD 134,898,342.00 MAD 116,908,508.00 MAD 105,217,657.00 MAD 121,000,305.00 MAD 180,150,351.00 MAD 1,562,144,825.00 MAD
totaux 351,957,934.00 MAD 228,463,681.00 MAD 205,617,313.00 MAD 202,605,581.00 MAD 212,813,919.00 MAD 260,336,006.00 MAD 300,946,407.00 MAD 263,051,767.00 MAD 227,971,590.00 MAD 205,174,431.00 MAD 235,950,595.00 MAD 351,293,185.00 MAD 3,046,182,409.00 MAD
moyen mensuelle 175,978,967.00 MAD 114,231,840.50 MAD 102,808,656.50 MAD 101,302,790.50 MAD 106,406,959.50 MAD 130,168,003.00 MAD 150,473,203.50 MAD 131,525,883.50 MAD 113,985,795.00 MAD 102,587,215.50 MAD 117,975,297.50 MAD 175,646,592.50 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD
moyen general 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD 126,924,267.04 MAD
coeff saisonn 1.39 0.90 0.81 0.80 0.84 1.03 1.19 1.04 0.90 0.81 0.93 1.38 12

la methode des moindres carres donne l'equation: €200,000,000.00

y=570613,35x+119791600,22 Chart Title

une prev de mois janv de 2018: x(numero de mois)=25 donc y=134056934(vente desaisonalisée)
€180,000,000.00
vente saisonalisé=vente desaisonalisée*coeff saisonier
donc prev pour janv de 2018=134056934*1,39=186339138,2 DH

€160,000,000.00

€140,000,000.00

f(x) = 570613.345652174 x + 119791600.221015

€120,000,000.00

€100,000,000.00

€80,000,000.00

€60,000,000.00

€40,000,000.00

€20,000,000.00

€-
jan fev mars avr mai juin juill aout sep oct nvbr dcbr jan fev mars avr mai juin juill aout sep oct nvbr dcbr
liste de client
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 Rang valeurs
8 1 8.49015776
9 2 29.4901578
10 3 50.4901578
11 4 71.4901578
12 5 92.4901578
13 6 113.490158
14 7 134.490158
15 8 155.490158
16 9 176.490158
17 10 197.490158
18 11 218.490158
19 12 239.490158
20 13 260.490158
21 14 281.490158
22 15 302.490158
23 16 323.490158
24 17 344.490158
25 18 365.490158
26 19 386.490158
27 20 407.490158
28 21 428.490158
29 22 449.490158
30 23 470.490158
31 24 491.490158
32 25 512.490158
33 26 533.490158
34 27 554.490158
35 28 575.490158
36 29 596.490158
37 30 617.490158
38 31 638.490158
39 32 659.490158
40 33 680.490158
41 34 701.490158
42 35 722.490158
43 36 743.490158
44 37 764.490158
45 38 785.490158
46 39 806.490158
47 40 827.490158
48 41 848.490158
49 42 869.490158
50 43 890.490158
51 44 911.490158
52 45 932.490158
53 46 953.490158
54 47 974.490158
55 48 995.490158
56 49 1016.49016
57 50 1037.49016
58 51 1058.49016
59 52 1079.49016
60 53 1100.49016
61 54 1121.49016
62 55 1142.49016
63 56 1163.49016
64 57 1184.49016
65 58 1205.49016
66 59 1226.49016
67 60 1247.49016
68 61 1268.49016
69 62 1289.49016
70 63 1310.49016
71 64 1331.49016
72 65 1352.49016
73 66 1373.49016
74 67 1394.49016
75 68 1415.49016
76 69 1436.49016
77 70 1457.49016
78 71 1478.49016
79 72 1499.49016
80 73 1520.49016
81 74 1541.49016
82 75 1562.49016
83 76 1583.49016
84 77 1604.49016
85 78 1625.49016
86 79 1646.49016
87 80 1667.49016
88 81 1688.49016
89 82 1709.49016
 90 83 1730.49016
91 84 1751.49016
92 85 1772.49016
93 86 1793.49016
94 87 1814.49016
95 88 1835.49016
96 89 1856.49016
97 90 1877.49016
98 91 1898.49016
99 92 1919.49016
100 93 1940.49016
101 94 1961.49016
102 95 1982.49016
103 96 2003.49016
104 97 2024.49016
105 98 2045.49016
106 99 2066.49016
107 100 2087.49016
108
109
110
jusqu'a 2100
n=100
N=2100 pas de sondage=N/n
rang /pas de sondage =21
échantillon exhaustive des clients
9 la 1ere valeur=alea()*pas de sondag
30
51
72
93 pour la 1er valeurs, quelle client je vais selectionner?
114
135
156
177
198
219
240
261
282
303
324
345
366
387
408
429
450
471
492
513
534
555
576
597
618
639
660
681
702
723
744
765
 786
807
828
849
870
891
912
933
954
975
996
1017
1038
1059
1080
1101
1122
1143
1164
1185
1206
1227
1248
1269
1290
1311
1332
1353
1374
1395
1416
1437
1458
1479
1500
1521
1542
1563
1584
1605
1626
1647
1668
1689
1710
1731
1752
1773
1794
1815
1836
1857
1878
1899
1920
1941
1962
1983
2004
2025
2046
2067
2088
valeur=alea()*pas de sondage ;la 2eme valeur=valeur1+r

le client je vais selectionner?, je vais prendre l'entier superieur: =ENT()+1=17

soit une enquete nutritionelle:
base de sondage
relation avec N cum
nom de villages population<5ans pop cumulée num de grappe
ajumani 105 105 1
pakele 183 288 2.3
pachara 92 380 4
laropi 126 506 5
amua 152 658 6.7
moyo 112 770 8
metuli 782 1552 9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16
dufile 131 1683 17
onigo 42 1725 18
ajugopi 89 1814 19
zaipi 63 1877
lire 254 2131 20,21,22
agujebe 153 2284 23.24
gimara 201 2485 25.26
obongi 38 2523
lewa 29 2552
tokaru 140 2692 27.28
langi 98 2790 29
erezeli 133 2923 30
total =N 2923

nombre de grappes=30
pas=N/30=2923/30=97
tirrage de 1er grappe au hasard entre 1 et 97 (pas)
par exemple: 48
 tirage
g1 48
g2 145
g3 242
g4 339
g5 436
g6 533
g7 630
g8 727
g9 824
g10 921
g11 1018
g12 1115
g13 1212
g14 1309
g15 1406
g16 1503
g17 1600
g18 1697
g19 1794
g20 1891
g21 1988
g22 2085
g23 2182
g24 2279
g25 2376
g26 2473
g27 2570
g28 2667
g29 2764
g30 2861
ANNÉES 1 2 3 4
N-4 6,592.00 MAD 6,112.00 MAD 47,598.00 MAD 6,264.00 MAD
N-3 6,021.00 MAD 5,698.00 MAD 46,521.00 MAD 5,697.00 MAD
N-2 6,001.00 MAD 5,368.00 MAD 46,012.00 MAD 5,559.00 MAD
N-1 5,999.00 MAD 5,402.00 MAD 42,984.00 MAD 5,476.00 MAD
TOTAUX 24,613.00 MAD 22,580.00 MAD 183,115.00 MAD 22,996.00 MAD
moy mens 6,153.25 MAD 5,645.00 MAD 45,778.75 MAD 5,749.00 MAD
moy general 10,242.17 MAD 10,242.17 MAD 10,242.17 MAD 10,242.17 MAD
coeff saison 0.60 0.55 4.47 0.56

soit la tendance du CA suit la droite d'equ: y=

operation en septembre N donc x=57, d'ou y=-5268,6*57+136077,5; y(

prevision pour le septembre N( CA)=-164232

 5 6 7 8
3,941.00 MAD 731.00 MAD 681.00 MAD 225.00 MAD
3,354.00 MAD 555.00 MAD 611.00 MAD 227.00 MAD
3,107.00 MAD 602.00 MAD 541.00 MAD 221.00 MAD
3,221.00 MAD 597.00 MAD 584.00 MAD 210.00 MAD
13,623.00 MAD 2,485.00 MAD 2,417.00 MAD 883.00 MAD
3,405.75 MAD 621.25 MAD 604.25 MAD 220.75 MAD
10,242.17 MAD 10,242.17 MAD 10,242.17 MAD 10,242.17 MAD
0.33 0.06 0.06 0.02

du CA suit la droite d'equ: y= -5268,6x+136077,5

y=-5268,6*57+136077,5; y(ventes mensuelles desaisonnalises)= -164232,7

e septembre N( CA)=-164232,7*0,56=-91970,312
 9 10 11 12 TOTAL ANNUEL
5,711.00 MAD 6,021.00 MAD 8,874.00 MAD 38,567.00 MAD 131,317.00 MAD
5,841.00 MAD 5,537.00 MAD 8,212.00 MAD 36,013.00 MAD 124,287.00 MAD
5,764.00 MAD 5,220.00 MAD 7,945.00 MAD 34,914.00 MAD 121,254.00 MAD
5,636.00 MAD 5,221.00 MAD 7,585.00 MAD 31,851.00 MAD 114,766.00 MAD
22,952.00 MAD 21,999.00 MAD 32,616.00 MAD 141,345.00 MAD 491,624.00 MAD
5,738.00 MAD 5,499.75 MAD 8,154.00 MAD 35,336.25 MAD 10,242.17 MAD
10,242.17 MAD 10,242.17 MAD 10,242.17 MAD 10,242.17 MAD
0.56 0.54 0.80 3.45 12
Client CA CA% CA% CUMULE RANG RANG %
Y 170,994,468.00 MAD 14.53% 14.53% 1 1%
L 107,660,936.00 MAD 9.15% 23.67% 2 3%
AV 98,567,784.00 MAD 8.37% 32.05% 3 4%
AE 94,218,264.00 MAD 8.00% 40.05% 4 5%
U 81,436,160.00 MAD 6.92% 46.97% 5 6%
H 56,683,588.00 MAD 4.82% 51.78% 6 8%
BC 41,784,852.00 MAD 3.55% 55.33% 7 9%
AR 30,744,798.00 MAD 2.61% 57.94% 8 10%
AI 28,891,178.00 MAD 2.45% 60.40% 9 12%
R 27,762,019.00 MAD 2.36% 62.76% 10 13%
BD 26,535,917.00 MAD 2.25% 65.01% 11 14%
M 26,149,217.00 MAD 2.22% 67.23% 12 16%
Q 24,299,180.00 MAD 2.06% 69.30% 13 17%
AJ 23,640,062.00 MAD 2.01% 71.31% 14 18%
BW 20,398,937.00 MAD 1.73% 73.04% 15 19%
AQ 16,581,521.00 MAD 1.41% 74.45% 16 21%
BE 16,373,819.00 MAD 1.39% 75.84% 17 22%
V 16,178,754.00 MAD 1.37% 77.21% 18 23%
AU 15,118,904.00 MAD 1.28% 78.50% 19 25%
BG 14,702,501.00 MAD 1.25% 79.75% 20 26%
D 13,648,619.00 MAD 1.16% 80.91% 21 27%
AD 9,968,725.00 MAD 0.85% 81.75% 22 29%
AK 9,661,978.00 MAD 0.82% 82.57% 23 30%
P 7,284,894.00 MAD 0.62% 83.19% 24 31%
F 7,226,190.00 MAD 0.61% 83.81% 25 32%
AG 7,206,129.00 MAD 0.61% 84.42% 26 34%
BO 6,867,470.00 MAD 0.58% 85.00% 27 35%
AX 6,588,009.00 MAD 0.56% 85.56% 28 36%
AP 6,307,594.00 MAD 0.54% 86.10% 29 38%
BM 6,191,795.00 MAD 0.53% 86.62% 30 39%
G 5,789,028.00 MAD 0.49% 87.11% 31 40%
BN 5,747,453.00 MAD 0.49% 87.60% 32 42%
BU 5,713,774.00 MAD 0.49% 88.09% 33 43%
AN 5,420,421.00 MAD 0.46% 88.55% 34 44%
BX 5,397,889.00 MAD 0.46% 89.01% 35 45%
AM 5,199,098.00 MAD 0.44% 89.45% 36 47%
Z 5,190,653.00 MAD 0.44% 89.89% 37 48%
AL 5,188,365.00 MAD 0.44% 90.33% 38 49%
BY 4,930,500.00 MAD 0.42% 90.75% 39 51%
AT 4,861,578.00 MAD 0.41% 91.16% 40 52%
BB 4,794,538.00 MAD 0.41% 91.57% 41 53%
AZ 4,730,818.00 MAD 0.40% 91.97% 42 55%
AC 4,719,287.00 MAD 0.40% 92.37% 43 56%
X 4,608,762.00 MAD 0.39% 92.76% 44 57%
BL 4,589,220.00 MAD 0.39% 93.15% 45 58%
BQ 4,409,248.00 MAD 0.37% 93.53% 46 60%
AY 4,368,436.00 MAD 0.37% 93.90% 47 61%
AB 4,231,788.00 MAD 0.36% 94.26% 48 62%
J 4,168,911.00 MAD 0.35% 94.61% 49 64%
AF 4,080,819.00 MAD 0.35% 94.96% 50 65%
BJ 4,022,935.00 MAD 0.34% 95.30% 51 66%
E 3,981,137.00 MAD 0.34% 95.64% 52 68%
BP 3,956,223.00 MAD 0.34% 95.98% 53 69%
N 3,659,277.00 MAD 0.31% 96.29% 54 70%
C 3,530,926.00 MAD 0.30% 96.59% 55 71%
S 3,494,665.00 MAD 0.30% 96.88% 56 73%
T 3,425,903.00 MAD 0.29% 97.17% 57 74%
AW 3,026,529.00 MAD 0.26% 97.43% 58 75%
K 2,882,741.00 MAD 0.24% 97.68% 59 77%
B 2,768,198.00 MAD 0.24% 97.91% 60 78%
O 2,766,515.00 MAD 0.24% 98.15% 61 79%
BZ 2,493,493.00 MAD 0.21% 98.36% 62 81%
BR 2,232,737.00 MAD 0.19% 98.55% 63 82%
BV 2,069,041.00 MAD 0.18% 98.72% 64 83%
BF 1,994,405.00 MAD 0.17% 98.89% 65 84%
BH 1,768,982.00 MAD 0.15% 99.04% 66 86%
I 1,766,259.00 MAD 0.15% 99.19% 67 87%
BS 1,347,539.00 MAD 0.11% 99.31% 68 88%
AO 1,174,744.00 MAD 0.10% 99.41% 69 90%
AA 1,140,346.00 MAD 0.10% 99.50% 70 91%
BI 1,127,816.00 MAD 0.10% 99.60% 71 92%
A 1,117,809.00 MAD 0.09% 99.70% 72 94%
AH 1,116,890.00 MAD 0.09% 99.79% 73 95%
W 1,108,449.00 MAD 0.09% 99.88% 74 96%
AS 1,099,203.00 MAD 0.09% 99.98% 75 97%
BT 140,655.00 MAD 0.01% 99.99% 76 99%
BK 116,199.00 MAD 0.01% 100.00% 77 100%
total 1,177,144,464.00 MAD 100.00%
ABC
A
A
A CA% CUM
A 120.00%
A
A
A 100.00%
A
A
80.00%
A
A
A
60.00%
A
A
A
40.00%
A
A
A
20.00%
A
A
A
0.00%
B
1% 5% 9% 13 % 17 % 21 % 25 % 29% 32% 36% 40 % 4 4% 4 8% 5 2% 56% 60% 64% 68% 71% 7
B
B
CA% CUM
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
56 60 64 68 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99

M
client% Client CA CA%

CA% CUM
14.53%
23.67%
32.05%
40.05%
46.97%
51.78%
55.33%
57.94%
60.40%
62.76%
65.01%
67.23%
69.30%
71.31%
73.04%
74.45%
75.84%
77.21%
78.50%
79.75%
80.91%
81.75%
82.57%
83.19%
83.81%
84.42%
85.00%
85.56%
86.10%
86.62%
87.11%
87.60%
88.09%
88.55%
89.01%
89.45%
89.89%
 90.33%
90.75%
91.16%
91.57%
91.97%
92.37%
92.76%
93.15%
93.53%
93.90%
94.26%
94.61%
94.96%
95.30%
95.64%
95.98%
96.29%
96.59%
96.88%
97.17%
97.43%
97.68%
97.91%
98.15%
98.36%
98.55%
98.72%
98.89%
99.04%
99.19%
99.31%
99.41%
99.50%
99.60%
99.70%
99.79%
99.88%
99.98%
99.99%
100.00%
CA cumulé % client% Client CA CA% CA cumulé % client%

RANG%
1%
3%
4%
5%
6%
8%
9%
10%
12%
13%
14%
16%
17%
18%
19%
21%
22%
23%
25%
26%
27%
29%
30%
31%
32%
34%
35%
36%
38%
39%
40%
42%
43%
44%
45%
47%
48%
 49%
51%
52%
53%
55%
56%
57%
58%
60%
61%
62%
64%
65%
66%
68%
69%
70%
71%
73%
74%
75%
77%
78%
79%
81%
82%
83%
84%
86%
87%
88%
90%
91%
92%
94%
95%
96%
97%
99%
100%