Sales of Consumer Dealer Seasonal

Month Treats Packs Allowances Index

Month Ship Cons CP_Adjusted lag1 Allow Seas
13 425,075 75,253 63,965 457,732 113
14 315,305 15,036 24,069 63,965 254,396 98
15 367,286 134,440 116,529 63,965 259,952 102
16 429,432 119,740 121,945 267,368 107
17 347,874 135,590 133,213 158,504 119
18 435,529 189,636 181,529 430,012 104
19 299,403 9,308 36,357 388,516 107
20 296,505 41,099 36,330 225,616 81
21 426,701 9,391 14,147 1,042,304 113
22 329,722 942 2,209 974,092 97
23 281,783 1,818 1,687 301,892 95
24 166,391 672 844 76,148 65
25 629,404 548,704 466,499 0 113
26 263,467 52,819 127,202 315,196 98
27 398,320 2,793 10,297 703,624 102
28 376,569 27,749 24,006 198,464 107
29 444,404 21,887 22,766 478,880 119
30 386,986 1,110 4,227 457,172 104
31 414,314 436 537 709,480 107
32 253,493 1,407 1,261 45,380 81
33 484,365 376,650 320,364 28,080 113
34 305,989 122,906 160,968 111,520 97
35 315,407 15,138 31,303 267,200 95
36 182,784 5,532 6,973 354,304 65
37 655,748 544,807 463,916 664,712 113
38 270,483 43,704 118,869 536,824 98
39 365,058 5,740 11,435 551,560 102
40 313,135 9,614 9,033 150,080 107
41 528,210 1,507 2,723 580,800 119
42 379,856 13,620 11,803 435,080 104
43 472,058 101,179 88,045 361,144 107
44 254,516 80,309 83,440 97,844 81
45 551,354 335,768 297,449 30,372 113
46 335,826 91,710 128,319 150,324 97
47 320,408 9,856 22,134 293,044 95
48 276,901 107,172 92,575 162,788 65
49 455,136 299,781 270,890 32,532 113
50 247,570 21,218 63,002 23,468 98
51 622,204 157 3,316 4,503,456 102
52 429,331 12,961 11,040 500,904 107
53 453,156 333,529 285,444 0 119
54 320,103 178,105 201,419 0 104
55 451,779 315,564 294,945 46,104 107
56 249,482 80,206 115,510 92,252 81
57 744,583 5,940 17,080 4,869,952 113
58 421,186 36,819 32,187 376,556 97
59 397,367 234,562 204,901 376,556 95
60 269,096 71,881 96,283 552,536 65
 Sales of Treat - Consumer Packs
600,000

500,000

400,000
Sales of Treat

300,000 Colum
f(x) = 0.563180571716159 x − 114475.497688152 Linear
R² = 0.238632232544072
200,000

100,000

0
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

Consumer Packs
 Sales of Consumer Dealer Seasonal
Month Treats Packs Allowances Index
Month Ship Cons CP_Adjusted
cp_adj_lag1 Allow Seas
13 425,075 75,253 63,965 0 457,732 389072.2 113
14 315,305 15,036 24,069 63,965 254,396 98
15 367,286 134,440 116,529 24,069 259,952 102
16 429,432 119,740 121,945 116,529 267,368 107
17 347,874 135,590 133,213 121,945 158,504 119
18 435,529 189,636 181,529 133,213 430,012 104
19 299,403 9,308 36,357 181,529 388,516 107
20 296,505 41,099 36,330 36,357 225,616 81
21 426,701 9,391 14,147 36,330 1,042,304 113
22 329,722 942 2,209 14,147 974,092 97
23 281,783 1,818 1,687 2,209 301,892 95
24 166,391 672 844 1,687 76,148 65
25 629,404 548,704 466,499 844 0 113
26 263,467 52,819 127,202 466,499 315,196 98
27 398,320 2,793 10,297 127,202 703,624 102
28 376,569 27,749 24,006 10,297 198,464 107
29 444,404 21,887 22,766 24,006 478,880 119
30 386,986 1,110 4,227 22,766 457,172 104
31 414,314 436 537 4,227 709,480 107
32 253,493 1,407 1,261 537 45,380 81
33 484,365 376,650 320,364 1,261 28,080 113
34 305,989 122,906 160,968 320,364 111,520 97
35 315,407 15,138 31,303 160,968 267,200 95
36 182,784 5,532 6,973 31,303 354,304 65
37 655,748 544,807 463,916 6,973 664,712 113
38 270,483 43,704 118,869 463,916 536,824 98
39 365,058 5,740 11,435 118,869 551,560 102
40 313,135 9,614 9,033 11,435 150,080 107
41 528,210 1,507 2,723 9,033 580,800 119
42 379,856 13,620 11,803 2,723 435,080 104
43 472,058 101,179 88,045 11,803 361,144 107
44 254,516 80,309 83,440 88,045 97,844 81
45 551,354 335,768 297,449 83,440 30,372 113
46 335,826 91,710 128,319 297,449 150,324 97
47 320,408 9,856 22,134 128,319 293,044 95
48 276,901 107,172 92,575 22,134 162,788 65
49 455,136 299,781 270,890 92,575 32,532 113
50 247,570 21,218 63,002 270,890 23,468 98
51 622,204 157 3,316 63,002 4,503,456 102
52 429,331 12,961 11,040 3,316 500,904 107
53 453,156 333,529 285,444 11,040 0 119
54 320,103 178,105 201,419 285,444 0 104
55 451,779 315,564 294,945 201,419 46,104 107
56 249,482 80,206 115,510 294,945 92,252 81
57 744,583 5,940 17,080 115,510 4,869,952 113
58 421,186 36,819 32,187 17,080 376,556 97
59 397,367 234,562 204,901 32,187 376,556 95
60 269,096 71,881 96,283 204,901 552,536 65
96,283
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.824089
R Square 0.679122
Adjusted R Square 0.649273
Standard Error 71759.42
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 4.69E+11 1.17E+11 22.75182 3.797E-10
Residual 43 2.21E+11 5.15E+09
Total 47 6.9E+11

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -207038 86711.14 -2.387679 0.021421 -381908 -32168.65 -381908 -32168.65
Time 2174.161 776.0853 2.801446 0.007595 609.0359 3739.286 609.0359 3739.286
Seasonal Index 5134.972 785.3816 6.538187 6.024E-08 3551.099 6718.845 3551.099 6718.845
Consumer Packs 1.66436 0.435224 3.824148 0.000419 0.786648 2.542072 0.786648 2.542072
CP_Adjust -1.705019 0.505561 -3.372532 0.001585 -2.72458 -0.685459 -2.72458 -0.685459

RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales

Residuals
Standard Residuals Percentile Sales
1 417664 7410.959 0.107972 1.041667 166391
2 310615.2 4689.836 0.068327 3.125 182784
3 374412.9 -7126.905 -0.103833 5.208333 247570
4 368562.1 60869.87 0.886825 7.291667 249482
5 439524.8 -91650.76 -1.335278 9.375 253493
6 372245.6 63283.41 0.921989 11.45833 254516
7 337214.9 -37811.88 -0.550889 13.54167 263467
8 258837.2 37667.79 0.54879 15.625 269096
9 410379.7 16321.34 0.237789 17.70833 270483
10 336686.4 -6964.352 -0.101465 19.79167 276901
11 330939.8 -49156.85 -0.716176 21.875 281783
12 178594.3 -12203.31 -0.177792 23.95833 296505
13 545418.3 83985.68 1.223604 26.04167 299403
14 223745.5 39721.5 0.578711 28.125 305989
15 362523.3 35796.68 0.521529 30.20833 313135
16 408534.5 -31965.51 -0.465712 32.29167 315305
17 464684.9 -20280.89 -0.295476 34.375 315407
18 386864.7 121.3077 0.001767 36.45833 320103
19 409612.6 4701.425 0.068496 38.54167 320408
20 278658.7 -25165.69 -0.366644 40.625 329722
21 525615.9 -41250.94 -0.600993 42.70833 335826
22 295082.4 10906.62 0.158901 44.79167 347874
23 328702.2 -13295.18 -0.1937 46.875 365058
24 202323 -19539 -0.284667 48.95833 367286
25 569427.1 86320.93 1.257627 51.04167 376569
26 248871.5 21611.47 0.314862 53.125 379856
27 391578.3 -26520.32 -0.38638 55.20833 386986
28 429970 -116835 -1.702193 57.29167 397367
29 491029.3 37180.71 0.541693 59.375 398320
30 420857.7 -41001.69 -0.597362 61.45833 414314
31 454172.2 17885.8 0.260582 63.54167 421186
32 295954.6 -41438.62 -0.603728 65.625 425075
33 522733 28621 0.416985 67.70833 426701
34 324918 10908.05 0.158922 69.79167 429331
35 361634.5 -41226.45 -0.600637 71.875 429432
36 251625.9 25275.12 0.368238 73.95833 435529
37 516818.8 -61682.79 -0.898669 76.04167 444404
38 332791 -85221 -1.241602 78.125 451779
39 422218.2 199985.8 2.913633 80.20833 453156
40 458207.7 -28876.73 -0.420711 82.29167 455136
41 587679 -134523 -1.959893 84.375 472058
42 397411.7 -77308.67 -1.126326 86.45833 484365
43 484307.4 -32528.42 -0.473913 88.54167 528210
44 267192.8 -17710.81 -0.258032 90.625 551354
45 477905.4 266677.6 3.885279 92.70833 622204
46 423555.7 -2369.661 -0.034524 94.79167 629404
47 450095.7 -52728.71 -0.768215 96.875 655748
48 212655.7 56440.26 0.82229 98.95833 744583
 Time Residual Plot
300000
200000 Seasonal Index Residual Plot
Residuals

100000 300000
0 200000 Consumer Packs Residual Plot
Residuals

-100000 10 100000
20 30
300000
40 50 60 70
-200000 0 200000 CP_Adjust Residual Plot
Residuals
-100000 60 70
Time 80300000
100000 90 100 110 120 130
-200000 0 200000 Time Line Fit Plot
Residuals
-100000 0 Seasonal
100000 0 Index 00 0 0 0 0
00 0800,000 00 00 00 00
-200000
10
0 , 0 ,
0 20 600,000 30
0 , Seasonal Index Line Fit Plot
40
0 ,
50
0 ,
60
0 ,

-100000 0Consumer 100,000 200,000

Packs
400,000 800,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
Sales

Sales
-200000 200,000 600,000 Consumer Packs Line Fit Plot Predicted Sales
Upper 95.0% 0 400,000 CP_Adjust800,000 Sales

Sales
10200,000
20 30 600,000 40 50 60 70 CP_Adjust Line Fit P Predicted Sales
Time
0 400,000 800,000 Sales

Sales
60200,000
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
600,000 Normal Proba Predicte
Seasonal
0 Index400,000 800000

Sales
0 200,000
200,000 400,000 600,000
600000
Consumer
0 Packs
400000

Sales
0 200000
200,000 400,000 600,000
CP_Adjust
0
0 20 40
Sample P
ne Fit Plot
Sales
Packs Line Fit Plot
Predicted Sales
Sales
P_Adjust Line Fit Plot
Predicted Sales
Sales
120 130 Normal Probability Plot
Predicted Sales
Sales
800000
00 400,000 600,000 Predicted Sales
600000
er Packs
400000
0 200000
200,000 400,000 600,000
CP_Adjust
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Sample Percentile
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.931656
R Square 0.867983
Adjusted R Square 0.855702
Standard Error 46028.21
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 5.99E+11 1.5E+11 70.6788 2.439E-18
Residual 43 9.11E+10 2.12E+09
Total 47 6.9E+11

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -99824.93 57224.85 -1.744433 0.088228 -215230 15579.97 -215230 15579.97
Time 395.3696 514.4188 0.768575 0.446346 -642.0548 1432.794 -642.0548 1432.794
Seasonal Index 3885.227 525.4101 7.394656 3.468E-09 2825.636 4944.817 2825.636 4944.817
Consumer Allowance 0.101601 0.013814 7.354828 3.957E-09 0.073742 0.12946 0.073742 0.12946
Dealer Allow 0.076418 0.008093 9.442468 4.781E-12 0.060097 0.09274 0.060097 0.09274

RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales

Residuals
Standard Residuals Percentile Sales
1 409907.7 15167.25 0.344507 1.041667 166391
2 312013.7 3291.317 0.074758 3.125 182784
3 376900.8 -9614.812 -0.218389 5.208333 247570
4 391314.9 38117.11 0.865786 7.291667 249482
5 436455.3 -88581.28 -2.012021 9.375 253493
6 421285 14244.04 0.323537 11.45833 254516
7 356878.9 -57475.92 -1.305499 13.54167 263467
8 256729.8 39775.17 0.903447 15.625 269096
9 430976.1 -4275.145 -0.097105 17.70833 270483
10 360561.5 -30839.53 -0.700484 19.79167 276901
11 302174 -20391 -0.463159 21.875 281783
12 168295.9 -1904.89 -0.043267 23.95833 296505
13 572085.5 57318.52 1.301924 26.04167 299403
14 336759.5 -73292.52 -1.664755 28.125 305989
15 362048 36271.95 0.823875 30.20833 313135
16 353408.3 23160.72 0.526069 32.29167 315305
17 419473 24931.04 0.56628 34.375 315407
18 351487.2 35498.82 0.806315 36.45833 320103
19 382545.3 31768.73 0.72159 38.54167 320408
20 231569.9 21923.06 0.497957 40.625 329722
21 507470.8 -23105.82 -0.524822 42.70833 335826
22 348956.3 -42967.31 -0.975953 44.79167 347874
23 309680.7 5726.322 0.130067 46.875 365058
24 196271.7 -13487.67 -0.306357 48.95833 367286
25 626042.3 29705.65 0.674729 51.04167 376569
26 354736 -84253 -1.91371 53.125 379856
27 356369.7 8688.322 0.197345 55.20833 386986
28 347085.2 -33950.15 -0.771138 57.29167 397367
29 423723.4 104486.6 2.373291 59.375 398320
30 359627.5 20228.5 0.459467 61.45833 414314
31 401612.8 70445.19 1.600081 63.54167 421186
32 272389.7 -17873.68 -0.40598 65.625 425075
33 495775.8 55578.21 1.262395 67.70833 426701
34 343987.9 -8161.9 -0.185388 69.79167 429331
35 314253.4 6154.558 0.139794 71.875 429432
36 227687.7 49213.32 1.117824 73.95833 435529
37 482897.1 -27761.07 -0.630561 76.04167 444404
38 311112.2 -63542.24 -1.443289 78.125 451779
39 660842.5 -38638.51 -0.877629 80.20833 453156
40 379999.2 49331.79 1.120514 82.29167 455136
41 519019.2 -65863.19 -1.496006 84.375 472058
42 397971.2 -77868.21 -1.768686 86.45833 484365
43 469409.4 -17630.35 -0.400453 88.54167 528210
44 276664.9 -27182.93 -0.617429 90.625 551354
45 736309.5 8273.526 0.187924 92.70833 622204
46 343712.7 77473.32 1.759717 94.79167 629404
47 416701.2 -19334.16 -0.439153 96.875 655748
48 247873.6 21222.39 0.482042 98.95833 744583
 Time Residual Plot
150000
100000 Seasonal Index Residual Plot
Residuals

50000 150000
0 100000 Consumer Allowance Residual Plot
Residuals

-50000 10 50000
20 30
150000
40 50 60 70
-100000 0 100000 Dealer Allow Residual Plot
Residuals
-50000 60 70
Time 80150000
50000 90 100 110 120 130
-100000 0 100000 Time Line Fit Plot
Residuals
-50000 0 Seasonal
50000 0 Index 0 0 0 0
,00 00
800,000
, ,00 ,00 ,00
-100000 0 0 0 0 0
50 0 ,0600,0000 0 00 50
-50000Consumer
,5
01 400,000Allowance
12,000,000 2, 2,
4,000,000 Seasonal Index Line
6,000,000
Sales

Sales
-100000 200,000 Predicted Sales
800,000
Upper 95.0% 0 Dealer Allow 600,000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 400,000

Sales
Time 200,000
0
Consumer Allowan
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1
Seasonal Index
800,000
Dealer Allow Line Fit Plot 600,000
400,000

Sales
800,000 200,000
600,000 0
400,000 Sales
Sales

0 0 00
Predicted Sales,00 ,0
200,000 Normal Probability Plot Consumer
00
0 0
Allowance
00
0 1, 2, 3
0 800000
5,000,000 10,000,000
600000
Dealer Allow
400000
Sales

200000
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 12
Sample Percentile
easonal
Sales Index Line Fit Plot
Predicted Sales
00
00
00 Sales
Predicted Sales
00
0
Consumer Allowance Line Fit Plot
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Seasonal Index
800,000
Plot
600,000
Sales
400,000
Predicted Sales
200,000
0
Sales
0 0 00 00
Predicted Sales,00 ,0 ,0
bability PlotConsumer
00
0 0
Allowance
00 00
0
1, 2, 3,

0 60 80 100 120
le Percentile
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Case Shipments = 279676.55+ 0.92 (Consumer Allowances)

Multiple R 0.834027554 + 0.565 * (Dealer Allowances)
R Square 0.69560196
Adjusted R Square 0.682073158
Standard Error 68321.55742
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 4.8E+11 2.4E+11 51.41637611 2.384743E-12
Residual 45 2.1E+11 4.67E+09
Total 47 6.9E+11

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 279676.5528 14231.23 19.6523 1.029194E-23 251013.37457 308339.7 251013.4
Dealer Allow 0.091864016 0.011177 8.219191 1.657221E-10 0.0693528424 0.114375 0.069353
Consumer Packs 0.56575474 0.073403 7.707532 9.216679E-10 0.417913823 0.713596 0.417914
 er Allowances)
)

Upper 95.0%
308339.7
0.114375
0.713596
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.834027554 Case Shipments (Sales) = 279676.55+ 0.566 * (Consumer Packs)
R Square 0.69560196 + 0.092 * (Dealer Allowances)
Adjusted R Square 0.682073158
Standard Error 68321.55742
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 480006341312 2.4E+11 51.41638 2.384743E-12
Residual 45 210052584361 4.67E+09
Total 47 690058925674

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 279676.5528 14231.2347987 19.6523 1.029E-23 251013.37457 308339.731
Consumer Packs 0.56575474 0.07340284412 7.707532 9.217E-10 0.417913823 0.713595657
Dealer Allowances 0.091864016 0.01117677176 8.219191 1.657E-10 0.0693528424 0.11437519
6.55+ 0.566 * (Consumer Packs)
ler Allowances)

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

251013.37457 308339.73104
0.417913823 0.7135956572
0.0693528424 0.1143751902
Sales Consumer PDealer Allo CP_Adjust Time Seasonal In Consumer Allowance
425,075 75,253 457,732 63,965 13 113 301,012
315,305 15,036 254,396 24,069 14 98 60,144
367,286 134,440 259,952 116,529 15 102 537,760
429,432 119,740 267,368 121,945 16 107 478,960
347,874 135,590 158,504 133,213 17 119 542,360
435,529 189,636 430,012 181,529 18 104 758,544
299,403 9,308 388,516 36,357 19 107 37,232
296,505 41,099 225,616 36,330 20 81 164,396
426,701 9,391 ### 14,147 21 113 37,564
329,722 942 974,092 2,209 22 97 3,768
281,783 1,818 301,892 1,687 23 95 7,272
166,391 672 76,148 844 24 65 2,688
629,404 548,704 0 466,499 25 113 2,194,816
263,467 52,819 315,196 127,202 26 98 211,276
398,320 2,793 703,624 10,297 27 102 11,172
376,569 27,749 198,464 24,006 28 107 110,996
444,404 21,887 478,880 22,766 29 119 87,548
386,986 1,110 457,172 4,227 30 104 4,440
414,314 436 709,480 537 31 107 1,744
253,493 1,407 45,380 1,261 32 81 5,628
484,365 376,650 28,080 320,364 33 113 1,506,600
305,989 122,906 111,520 160,968 34 97 491,624
315,407 15,138 267,200 31,303 35 95 60,552
182,784 5,532 354,304 6,973 36 65 22,128
655,748 544,807 664,712 463,916 37 113 2,179,228
270,483 43,704 536,824 118,869 38 98 174,816
365,058 5,740 551,560 11,435 39 102 22,960
313,135 9,614 150,080 9,033 40 107 38,456
528,210 1,507 580,800 2,723 41 119 6,028
379,856 13,620 435,080 11,803 42 104 54,480
472,058 101,179 361,144 88,045 43 107 404,716
254,516 80,309 97,844 83,440 44 81 321,236
551,354 335,768 30,372 297,449 45 113 1,343,072
335,826 91,710 150,324 128,319 46 97 366,840
320,408 9,856 293,044 22,134 47 95 39,424
276,901 107,172 162,788 92,575 48 65 428,688
455,136 299,781 32,532 270,890 49 113 1,199,124
247,570 21,218 23,468 63,002 50 98 84,872
622,204 157 ### 3,316 51 102 628
429,331 12,961 500,904 11,040 52 107 51,844
453,156 333,529 0 285,444 53 119 1,334,116
320,103 178,105 0 201,419 54 104 712,420
451,779 315,564 46,104 294,945 55 107 1,262,256
249,482 80,206 92,252 115,510 56 81 320,824
744,583 5,940 ### 17,080 57 113 23,760
421,186 36,819 376,556 32,187 58 97 147,276
397,367 234,562 376,556 204,901 59 95 938,248
269,096 71,881 552,536 96,283 60 65 287,524
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.837799
R Square 0.701907
Adjusted R Square 0.681582
Standard Error 68374.29
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 4.84E+11 1.61E+11 34.53494 1.241E-11
Residual 44 2.06E+11 4.68E+09
Total 47 6.9E+11

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -245782 79731.41 -3.082628 0.003536 -406470 -85094.19 -406470 -85094.19
Time 1394.348 737.0439 1.891811 0.065109 -91.06633 2879.762 -91.06633 2879.762
Seasonal Index 5493.873 709.6483 7.741685 9.504E-10 4063.671 6924.075 4063.671 6924.075
Dealer Allow 0.055374 0.011246 4.92401 1.239E-05 0.03271 0.078038 0.03271 0.078038

RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales

Residuals
Standard Residuals Percentile Sales
1 418498.2 6576.772 0.099413 1.041667 166391
2 326225 -10920 -0.165064 3.125 182784
3 349902.5 17383.49 0.262765 5.208333 247570
4 379176.9 50255.12 0.759644 7.291667 249482
5 440469.5 -92595.5 -1.399651 9.375 253493
6 374490.2 61038.85 0.922648 11.45833 254516
7 390068.3 -90665.33 -1.370475 13.54167 263467
8 239601.6 56903.4 0.860138 15.625 269096
9 462022.9 -35321.92 -0.533917 17.70833 270483
10 371738.1 -42016.15 -0.635106 19.79167 276901
11 324922.6 -43139.55 -0.652087 21.875 281783
12 149000.4 17390.57 0.262872 23.95833 296505
13 409884.1 219519.9 3.318208 26.04167 299403
14 346323.9 -82856.91 -1.252445 28.125 305989
15 391202.4 7117.559 0.107587 30.20833 313135
16 392093.6 -15524.58 -0.234666 32.29167 315305
17 474942.1 -30538.08 -0.461606 34.375 315407
18 392726.3 -5740.275 -0.086769 36.45833 320103
19 424573.5 -10259.47 -0.15508 38.54167 320408
20 246353.4 7139.555 0.10792 40.625 329722
21 422593.8 61771.23 0.933719 42.70833 335826
22 340706.5 -34717.53 -0.524782 44.79167 347874
23 339733.7 -24326.71 -0.367716 46.875 365058
24 181135.1 1648.873 0.024924 48.95833 367286
25 463423.8 192324.2 2.907125 51.04167 376569
26 375328.4 -104845 -1.584818 53.125 379856
27 399514.3 -34456.27 -0.520832 55.20833 386986
28 406146.6 -93011.56 -1.40594 57.29167 397367
29 497317.9 30892.06 0.466957 59.375 398320
30 408235.1 -28379.14 -0.428972 61.45833 414314
31 422017 50041.01 0.756407 63.54167 421186
32 265990.7 -11474.75 -0.173449 65.625 425075
33 439452.9 111901.1 1.69147 67.70833 426701
34 359587.4 -23761.42 -0.359172 69.79167 429331
35 357897 -37489 -0.566674 71.875 429432
36 187262.4 89638.65 1.354956 73.95833 435529
37 445149.9 9986.137 0.150948 76.04167 444404
38 363634.2 -116064 -1.754398 78.125 451779
39 635077.5 -12873.51 -0.194593 80.20833 453156
40 442305.2 -12974.15 -0.196114 82.29167 455136
41 481889.1 -28733.08 -0.434322 84.375 472058
42 400875.3 -80772.33 -1.220934 86.45833 484365
43 421304.2 30474.76 0.460649 88.54167 528210
44 282413.3 -32931.27 -0.497781 90.625 551354
45 724170.4 20412.56 0.308551 92.70833 622204
46 388846.9 32339.1 0.48883 94.79167 629404
47 379253.5 18113.5 0.273799 96.875 655748
48 225576.3 43519.68 0.657833 98.95833 744583
 Time Residual Plot
300000
200000 Seasonal Index Residual Plot
Residuals

100000 300000
0 200000 Dealer Allow Residual Plot
Residuals

-100000 10 100000
20 30
300000
40 50 60 70
-200000 0 200000 Time Line Fit Plot
Residuals
-100000 60 70
Time 80
100000 90
800,000
100 110 120 130
-200000 0 600,000 Seasonal Index Line Fit Plot
-100000 0 Seasonal
400,0002,000,000
Index 4,000,000 6,000,000
Sales
Sales
800,000
-200000 200,000 600,000 Dealer Allow Line Fit Plot
Predicted Sales
Dealer Allow
0 400,000 Sales

Sales
800,000
10200,000
20 30 600,000
40 50 60 70 Normal Probability Plot
Predicted Sales
Upper 95.0% Time
0 400,000 800000 Sales

Sales
60200,000
70 80 90600000
100 110 120 130 Predicted Sales
Seasonal
0 Index
400000

Sales
0 200000
5,000,000 10,000,000
Dealer
0 Allow
0 20 40 60 80 100
Sample Percentile
 Plot
ne Fit Plot
Sales
Probability Plot
Predicted Sales
Sales
Predicted Sales

000,000

40 60 80 100 120
Sample Percentile
Sales
(Y) Time Seasonal In Dealer Allowences
425,075 13 113 457,732
315,305 14 98 254,396
367,286 15 102 259,952
429,432 16 107 267,368
347,874 17 119 158,504
435,529 18 104 430,012
299,403 19 107 388,516
296,505 20 81 225,616
426,701 21 113 1,042,304
329,722 22 97 974,092
281,783 23 95 301,892
166,391 24 65 76,148
629,404 25 113 0
263,467 26 98 315,196
398,320 27 102 703,624
376,569 28 107 198,464
444,404 29 119 478,880
386,986 30 104 457,172
414,314 31 107 709,480
253,493 32 81 45,380
484,365 33 113 28,080
305,989 34 97 111,520
315,407 35 95 267,200
182,784 36 65 354,304
655,748 37 113 664,712
270,483 38 98 536,824
365,058 39 102 551,560
313,135 40 107 150,080
528,210 41 119 580,800
379,856 42 104 435,080
472,058 43 107 361,144
254,516 44 81 97,844
551,354 45 113 30,372
335,826 46 97 150,324
320,408 47 95 293,044
276,901 48 65 162,788
455,136 49 113 32,532
247,570 50 98 23,468
622,204 51 102 4,503,456
429,331 52 107 500,904
453,156 53 119 0
320,103 54 104 0
451,779 55 107 46,104
249,482 56 81 92,252
744,583 57 113 4,869,952
421,186 58 97 376,556
397,367 59 95 376,556
269,096 60 65 552,536
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.48849998213
R Square 0.23863223254
Adjusted R Square 0.22208075934
Standard Error 123209.594621
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 218867615482 2.19E+11 14.41758 0.000427291043061
Residual 46 698307793510 1.52E+10
Total 47 917175408992

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept -114475.497688 59457.740361 -1.925325 0.060384 -234157.721582436 5206.726
Ship 0.56318057172 0.14832058845 3.797049 0.000427 0.264626711997173 0.861734

RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Cons ResidualsStandard Residuals Percentile Cons

1 124918.483834 -49665.483834 -0.407455 1.04166666666667 157
2 63098.1524768 -48062.152477 -0.394302 3.125 436
3 92372.8417752 42067.1582248 0.345119 5.20833333333333 672
4 127372.261585 -7632.2615851 -0.062615 7.29166666666667 942
5 81440.380517 54149.619483 0.444243 9.375 1110
6 130805.973531 58830.0264692 0.482641 11.4583333333333 1407
7 54142.4550254 -44834.455025 -0.367822 13.5416666666667 1507
8 52510.3577285 -11411.357729 -0.093619 15.625 1818
9 125834.215444 -116443.21544 -0.9553 17.7083333333333 2793
10 71217.5267792 -70275.526779 -0.57654 19.7916666666667 5532
11 44219.2133517 -42401.213352 -0.347859 21.875 5740
12 -20767.3191797 21439.3191797 0.175888 23.9583333333333 5940
13 239992.606872 308711.393128 2.532667 26.0416666666667 9308
14 33903.9980002 18915.0019998 0.155179 28.125 9391
15 109850.587638 -107057.58764 -0.8783 30.2083333333333 9614
16 97600.8470224 -69851.847022 -0.573064 32.2916666666667 9856
17 135804.201105 -113917.2011 -0.934576 34.375 12961
18 103467.499038 -102357.49904 -0.839741 36.4583333333333 13620
19 118858.097702 -118422.0977 -0.971535 38.5416666666667 15036
20 28286.8349779 -26879.834978 -0.220522 40.625 15138
21 158309.459931 218340.540069 1.791265 42.7083333333333 21218
22 57851.5622707 65054.4377293 0.533706 44.7916666666667 21887
23 63155.5968951 -48017.596895 -0.393936 46.875 27749
24 -11535.1000676 17067.1000676 0.140018 48.9583333333333 36819
25 254829.035854 289977.964146 2.378978 51.0416666666667 41099
26 37855.2728914 5848.72710865 0.047983 53.125 43704
27 91118.0754614 -85378.075461 -0.700441 55.2083333333333 52819
28 61876.0506362 -52262.050636 -0.428758 57.2916666666667 71881
29 183002.112098 -181495.1121 -1.488985 59.375 75253
30 99452.0215617 -85832.021562 -0.704166 61.4583333333333 80206
31 151378.396635 -50199.396635 -0.411836 63.5416666666667 80309
32 28862.9687028 51446.0312972 0.422063 65.625 91710
33 196036.36325 139731.63675 1.146358 67.7083333333333 101179
34 74655.180989 17054.819011 0.139918 69.7916666666667 107172
35 65972.0629343 -56116.062934 -0.460376 71.875 119740
36 41469.7658006 65702.2341994 0.539021 73.9583333333333 122906
37 141848.255 157932.745 1.29568 76.0416666666667 134440
38 24951.1164516 -3733.1164516 -0.030626 78.125 135590
39 235937.706756 -235780.70676 -1.934344 80.2083333333333 178105
40 127315.380347 -114354.38035 -0.938163 82.2916666666667 189636
41 140733.157468 192795.842532 1.581696 84.375 234562
42 65800.2928599 112304.70714 0.921347 86.4583333333333 299781
43 139957.657821 175606.342179 1.440674 88.5416666666667 315564
44 26027.9177047 54178.0822953 0.444477 90.625 333529
45 304859.181942 -298919.18194 -2.452332 92.7083333333333 335768
46 122728.274591 -85909.274591 -0.704799 94.7916666666667 376650
47 109313.876553 125248.123447 1.027535 96.875 544807
48 37074.1414384 34806.8585616 0.285555 98.9583333333333 548704
 Ship Residual Plot
400000
200000

Residuals
0
-200000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000

-400000
Ship

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-234158 5206.726 Ship Line Fit Plot
0.264627 0.861734 600,000
400,000
Cons
Cons

200,000 Predicted Cons

0
-200,000 0 500,000 1,000,000

Ship

Normal Probability Plot

600000
400000
Cons

200000
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Sample Percentile
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.541992
R Square 0.293756
Adjusted R Square 0.278403
Standard Error 102929.9
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2.03E+11 2.03E+11 19.13327 6.927E-05
Residual 46 4.87E+11 1.06E+10
Total 47 6.9E+11

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 346887.2 16943.68 20.47295 9.523E-25 312781.3 380993 312781.3 380993
Allow 0.071584 0.016365 4.374159 6.927E-05 0.038642 0.104525 0.038642 0.104525

RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Observation Predicted ShipResiduals

Standard Residuals Percentile Ship
1 379653.3 45421.73 0.446059 1.041667 166391
2 365097.7 -49792.75 -0.488984 3.125 182784
3 365495.5 1790.534 0.017584 5.208333 247570
4 366026.3 63405.67 0.622668 7.291667 249482
5 358233.5 -10359.45 -0.101734 9.375 253493
6 377669 57860.03 0.568208 11.45833 254516
7 374698.5 -75295.54 -0.739431 13.54167 263467
8 363037.6 -66532.57 -0.653375 15.625 269096
9 421499 5201.965 0.051085 17.70833 270483
10 416616.2 -86894.18 -0.853334 19.79167 276901
11 368497.7 -86714.68 -0.851571 21.875 281783
12 352338.1 -185947 -1.826072 23.95833 296505
13 346887.2 282516.8 2.774423 26.04167 299403
14 369450 -105983 -1.040794 28.125 305989
15 397255.1 1064.897 0.010458 30.20833 313135
16 361093.9 15475.07 0.151971 32.29167 315305
17 381167.1 63236.88 0.62101 34.375 315407
18 379613.2 7372.817 0.072404 36.45833 320103
19 397674.3 16639.7 0.163408 38.54167 320408
20 350135.6 -96642.63 -0.949067 40.625 329722
21 348897.2 135467.8 1.330345 42.70833 335826
22 354870.2 -48881.17 -0.480032 44.79167 347874
23 366014.3 -50607.3 -0.496983 46.875 365058
24 372249.5 -189466 -1.860624 48.95833 367286
25 394469.6 261278.4 2.565853 51.04167 376569
26 385315 -114832 -1.127694 53.125 379856
27 386369.8 -21311.82 -0.20929 55.20833 386986
28 357630.4 -44495.43 -0.436962 57.29167 397367
29 388462.9 139747.1 1.37237 59.375 398320
30 378031.8 1824.242 0.017915 61.45833 414314
31 372739.2 99318.85 0.975349 63.54167 421186
32 353891.2 -99375.19 -0.975902 65.625 425075
33 349061.3 202292.7 1.986591 67.70833 426701
34 357647.9 -21821.9 -0.214299 69.79167 429331
35 367864.3 -47456.31 -0.466039 71.875 429432
36 358540.1 -81639.12 -0.801727 73.95833 435529
37 349215.9 105920.1 1.040176 76.04167 444404
38 348567.1 -100997 -0.99183 78.125 451779
39 669260.7 -47056.74 -0.462115 80.20833 453156
40 382743.7 46587.32 0.457505 82.29167 455136
41 346887.2 106268.8 1.0436 84.375 472058
42 346887.2 -26784.17 -0.263031 86.45833 484365
43 350187.5 101591.5 0.997668 88.54167 528210
44 353490.9 -104009 -1.021407 90.625 551354
45 695495.8 49087.16 0.482055 92.70833 622204
46 373842.4 47343.6 0.464932 94.79167 629404
47 373842.4 23524.6 0.231021 96.875 655748
48 386439.7 -117344 -1.15236 98.95833 744583
 Allow Residual Plot
400000
200000
Residuals

0
-200000 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000

-400000
Allow

Allow Line Fit Plot

800,000
Upper 95.0% 600,000
400,000 Ship
Ship

Predicted Ship
200,000
0
0 5,000,000 10,000,000
Allow

Normal Probability Plot

800000
600000
400000
Ship

200000
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Sample Percentile
 Sales of Consumer Dealer Seasonal
Month Treats Packs Allowances Index
Month Ship Cons Allow Seas
1 425,075 75,253 457,732 113
2 315,305 15,036 254,396 98
3 367,286 134,440 259,952 102
4 429,432 119,740 267,368 107
5 347,874 135,590 158,504 119
6 435,529 189,636 430,012 104
7 299,403 9,308 388,516 107
8 296,505 41,099 225,616 81
9 426,701 9,391 1,042,304 113
10 329,722 942 974,092 97
11 281,783 1,818 301,892 95
12 166,391 672 76,148 65
13 629,404 548,704 0 113
14 263,467 52,819 315,196 98
15 398,320 2,793 703,624 102
16 376,569 27,749 198,464 107
17 444,404 21,887 478,880 119
18 386,986 1,110 457,172 104
19 414,314 436 709,480 107
20 253,493 1,407 45,380 81
21 484,365 376,650 28,080 113
22 305,989 122,906 111,520 97
23 315,407 15,138 267,200 95
24 182,784 5,532 354,304 65
25 655,748 544,807 664,712 113
26 270,483 43,704 536,824 98
27 365,058 5,740 551,560 102
28 313,135 9,614 150,080 107
29 528,210 1,507 580,800 119
30 379,856 13,620 435,080 104
31 472,058 101,179 361,144 107
32 254,516 80,309 97,844 81
33 551,354 335,768 30,372 113
34 335,826 91,710 150,324 97
35 320,408 9,856 293,044 95
36 276,901 107,172 162,788 65
37 455,136 299,781 32,532 113
38 247,570 21,218 23,468 98
39 622,204 157 4,503,456 102
40 429,331 12,961 500,904 107
41 453,156 333,529 0 119
42 320,103 178,105 0 104
43 451,779 315,564 46,104 107
44 249,482 80,206 92,252 81
45 744,583 5,940 4,869,952 113
46 421,186 36,819 376,556 97
47 397,367 234,562 376,556 95
48 269,096 71,881 552,536 65