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Les Marches Sont Ils Rationnels
Les Marches Sont Ils Rationnels
Gunther CAPELLE-BLANCARD
gunther.capelle-blancard@univ-paris1.fr http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/membre/capelle/gunther.htm
PLAN
CAC 40
0,04 Rentab ilits journa alire t-1
0,02
-0,04
Le cas du Titanic
14 avril 1912 : Naufrage du Titanic Khana (FAJ (FAJ, 1998) examine leffet l effet sur le cours boursier de lInternational Mercantile Marine Company Capitalisation boursire = -2,6 millions $ Perte nette pour lIMM = 2,5 millions $
Cot estim = 8 millions $ Montant assure (Lloyds) = 5,5 millions $
Jouons un peu
A B
2 000 0 = 2 000
Un phnomne rcurant
XVIIme sicle : la tulipomanie XVIIIme sicle : Compagnie des Mers du Sud et C Compagnie i d du Mi Mississippi i i i( (systme t J John h L Law) ) XIXme sicle : la railway y mania Le krach boursier de 1929 Jeudi noir 24 octobre 1929 : -12,8 -12 8 %, % plus de 12 millions dactions sont changs (16 millions le 29) Le krach boursier de 1987 Lundi 19 octobre 1987 : DJIA -22,6%, prs de 600 millions dactions sont changs Interconnexion des marchs financiers : -10 % le mme jour partout dans le monde
La bulle Internet
Entre E t janvier j i 1996 et t mars 2000 DJIA : +200% (11 700 pts 01/2000) Nasdaq 100 : +3 000%. CAC 40 : 6 930 pts le 5 septembre 2000. krach lent : DJIA : -20% entre 01/2000 et 07/2003 Nasdaq 100 : -75% entre 03/2000 et 07/2003 CAC 40 : -50% entre 09/2000 et 07/2003.
6 000
14 000
10 000
12 000
2 000
4 000
8 000
0 1995 1995 DJ Ind CAC 40 1996 1996 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 Nasdaq - 100
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
200
400
600
800
0 01/92 07/92 01/93 07/93 01/94 07/94 01/95 07/95 01/96 07/96 01/97 07/97 01/98 07/98 01/99 07/99 01/00 07/00 01/01 07/01 01/02 07/02 01/03 DJ I Ind d CAC 40 Nasdaq - 100
1 500 1992 1992 1993 1993 1994 1994 1995 1995 1996 1996 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 CAC 40
2 500
3 500
4 500
5 500
6 500
12 000
10 000
8 000
100 50 0 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
6 000
4 000
2 000
500 0 1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
18 9 19 6 0 19 0 0 19 4 0 19 8 1 19 2 1 19 6 2 19 0 2 19 4 2 19 8 3 19 2 3 19 6 4 19 0 4 19 4 4 19 8 5 19 2 5 19 6 6 19 0 6 19 4 6 19 8 7 19 2 7 19 6 8 19 0 8 19 4 88 19 92 19 96 20 00
Housing bubble?
Sujet trs controvers
G George W. W Bush: B h " " If houses h get t too t expensive, i people l will ill stop buying them () Let the market function properly. () Economies should cycle."
Explications
Baisse des taux dintrt d intrt Dsir dtre propritaire, dmographie Lide rpandue selon laquelle la pierre est une valeur sure Dgonflement de la bulle internet: "Once stocks fell, real estate became the primary outlet for the speculative frenzy that the stock market had unleashed. Where else could plungers apply their newly acquired trading talents? The materialistic display of the big house also has become a salve to bruised egos of disappointed stock investors. These days, the only thing that comes close to real estate as a national obsession is poker." Robert Shiller, 2005.
Note : Ces biais ne sont pas exploitables et ne permettent pas de battre le march !
dot com
Dot.com additions and deletions over time. This figure plots the Inter@ctive week Index level against the number of firms that added or deleted a dot.com from their names over the 19982001 period
Hirshleifer, Lim, & Teoh Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News
A Sunday New York Times article on a potential development of new cancer-curing drugs caused EntreMeds stock price to rise from 12.063 at the Friday close, to open at 85 and close near 52 on Monday. It closed above 30 in the three following weeks. The enthusiasm spilled over to other biotechnology stocks. The potential breakthrough in cancer research already had been reported, however, in the journal Nature, and in various popular newspapers (including the Times) more than five months earlier. Thus, enthusiastic public attention induced a permanent rise in share prices, even though no i l i f ti h d b t d H b &R 2001 C t i