Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
49.4
54.29
23.12
17.34
21.5
38.4
22
29.3
23
42.2
23.12
33
33.12
33.9
42.4
23.12
17.34
42.4
23.12
16.4
21.5
38.4
33.12
40.2
18.8
20
55.33
23.12
17.22
21.5
38.4
50.3
38.4
40.2
20
20.1
18.8
59.5
33
21
23.12
49.4
34
43.2
51.37
22
33.9
40.2
33
20.1
17.2
42.4
23.12
17.34
21.5
38.4
33.9
33
59.7
23.12
40.2
29.3
20.1
18.8
40.2
85.3
73.9
33.9
22
23
9
29.3
21.5
52.84
59.57
70.46
85.8
73.6
21.5
34
61.25
23
22
33.9
18.8
33
60.54
33.9
17.34
33.12
33.9
26
18.34
23
18.8
20.1
18.8
40.2
22
21.5
70.12
38.4
18.2
18.8
33.9
23.12
23
42.4
23.12
40.2
23
23
24.7
43.2
29.3
22
18.34
60.39
23.12
17.34
85.3
73.6
20
40.2
23.12
22
33.12
23
33
18.34
20.1
18.8
33.9
18.34
18.34
20
14
18.8
33.12
22
33.9
33
20.1
25
23
33
33.9
34
33.12
33.9
18.34
43.8
22
42.4
23.12
23
22
16
33
35.8
55.24
MEDIOS
MAXIMO
MINIMO
31.9
49.4
16.4
34.5
59.5
17.2
36.4
59.7
17.2
39.9
85.8
9
29.9
70.12
18.2
30.7
85.3
14
31.5
43.8
16
SEP
OCT
NOV
DIC
MAX
53.3
23.12
15.5
21.5
38.4
18.34
22
29.3
23
42.4
23.12
20
22
40.2
33.12
34
51.23
23
22
53.88
29.3
61.6
35
20
22
21.5
21.5
38.4
33
20.1
18.8
18.34
38.4
23
33
80.2
73.6
42.4
23.12
16.3
21.5
38.4
33.9
18.8
43.2
39.3
33
23.12
42.4
23.12
17.34
21.5
38.4
40.2
22
21.5
18.34
29.3
23.12
23
42.4
23.12
13.4
21.5
38.4
18.8
33.9
17.34
38
29.3
21.5
33
33.12
33.9
42.4
23.12
16.6
33.12
51.9
58.12
18.8
17.34
21.5
38.4
33
20.1
33
33.12
33.9
46.6
23.12
17.34
18.8
23.12
18
21.5
38.4
42.4
23.12
21.5
73.6
21.5
38.4
33
20.1
22
18.34
58.2
22
23.12
57.8
34
23.12
59.57
34
53.3
54.29
60.39
55.33
52.84
59.57
73.6
85.8
73.6
51.9
58.12
61.25
80.2
73.6
59.5
58.2
51.23
60.54
57.8
53.88
73.9
51.37
55.24
33.4
133.6
15.5
33.6
80.2
16.3
28.3
42.4
13.4
32.4
51.9
16.6
33.9
91.3
18
33.0
73.9
9
No
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Precipitacin (mm)
xi
53.3
54.29
60.39
55.33
52.84
59.57
73.6
85.8
73.6
51.9
58.12
61.25
80.2
73.6
59.5
58.2
51.23
60.54
57.8
53.88
73.9
51.37
55.24
Suma 1415.5
(xi - x)^2
67.92
52.58
1.33
38.58
75.71
3.89
145.41
588.48
145.41
92.95
11.71
0.08
348.15
145.41
4.17
11.16
106.32
1.00
14.00
58.70
152.74
103.46
39.71
2208.87
Variable
Reducida
Periodo Retorno
Prob. de
ocurrencia
Aos
YT
XT'(mm)
F(xT)
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
500
0.3665
1.4999
2.2504
3.1985
3.9019
4.3108
4.6001
6.2136
59.8953
68.7504
74.6132
82.0209
87.5164
90.7105
92.9713
105.5767
0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9600
0.9800
0.9867
0.9900
0.9980
x=
(x
i =1
61.54
mm
10.02
mm
*s =
7.81
mm
57.03
mm
- x)
n -1
a=
S=
Precip. (mm)
u = x - 0.5772 * a =
Fuente: D.
Duraciones, en horas
1
12
18
0.3
0.39
0.46
0.52
0.57
0.61
0.68
0.8
0.91
Cociente
X24
X18 = 91%
X12 = 80%
X8 = 68%
X6 = 61%
X5 = 57%
X4 = 52%
X3 = 46%
X2 = 39%
X1 = 30%
2 aos
67.6817
61.5903
54.1453
46.0235
41.2858
38.5785
35.1945
31.1336
26.3958
20.3045
5 aos
77.6879
70.6960
62.1503
52.8278
47.3896
44.2821
40.3977
35.7364
30.2983
23.3064
I =
Pmm
t duracin hr.
2 aos
2.8201
3.4217
4.5121
5.7529
6.8810
7.7157
8.7986
10.3779
13.1979
20.3045
5 aos
3.2370
3.9276
5.1792
6.6035
7.8983
8.8564
10.0994
11.9121
15.1491
23.3064
10 aos
3.5130
4.2625
5.6209
7.1666
8.5718
9.6117
10.9607
12.9280
16.4410
25.2939
25 aos
3.8618
4.6857
6.1789
7.8781
9.4228
10.5659
12.0489
14.2115
18.0733
27.8051
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
y
2.8201
3.4217
4.5121
5.7529
6.8810
7.7157
8.7986
10.3779
13.1979
20.3045
83.7824
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
ln y
1.0368
1.2301
1.5068
1.7497
1.9288
2.0433
2.1746
2.3397
2.5801
3.0108
19.6006
ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
7.5397
52.8878
8.5921
48.7863
9.9134
43.2865
10.8023 38.1156
11.3529 34.6462
11.6543 32.5331
11.9182 30.0374
12.1498 26.9668
12.3520 22.9201
12.3274 16.7637
108.6022 346.9435
5.5447
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
5.6826
x
1440
A = 255.8722
y
3.2370
3.9276
5.1792
6.6035
7.8983
8.8564
10.0994
11.9121
15.1491
23.3064
96.1690
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
A = 293.7011
y
3.5130
ln x
7.2724
B=
ln y
1.1746
1.3680
1.6446
1.8876
2.0666
2.1811
2.3125
2.4776
2.7179
3.1487
20.9794
B=
ln y
1.2565
50 aos
4.1206
4.9996
6.5929
8.4059
10.0542
11.2739
12.8562
15.1637
19.2842
29.6680
75 aos
4.2710
5.1821
6.8335
8.7127
10.4211
11.6853
13.3254
15.7171
19.9881
30.7509
100 aos
4.3774
5.3112
7.0038
8.9299
10.6808
11.9766
13.6575
16.1088
20.4862
31.5173
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Ln (A) =
min
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Intensidad (mm/hr)
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
tensidad (mm/hr)
Tiempo de
duracin
Hr
24 hr
18 hr
12 hr
8 hr
6 hr
5 hr
4 hr
3 hr
2 hr
1 hr
28
26
24
-0.6164
ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
8.5425
52.8878
9.5552
48.7863
10.8206 43.2865
11.6536 38.1156
12.1645 34.6462
12.4408 32.5331
12.6739 30.0374
12.8659 26.9668
13.0121 22.9201
12.8920 16.7637
116.6209 346.9435
-0.6164
ln x*ln y
9.1376
(lnx)^2
52.8878
5.8591
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
5.9239
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
A = 318.7471
y
3.8618
4.6857
6.1789
7.8781
9.4228
10.5659
12.0489
14.2115
18.0733
27.8051
114.7320
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
A = 350.3928
y
4.1206
4.9996
6.5929
8.4059
10.0542
11.2739
12.8562
15.1637
19.2842
29.6680
122.4192
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
A = 373.8694
y
4.2710
5.1821
6.8335
8.7127
10.4211
11.6853
13.3254
15.7171
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
1.4499
1.7265
1.9694
2.1485
2.2630
2.3943
2.5594
2.7998
3.2306
21.7978
B=
ln y
1.3511
1.5445
1.8211
2.0641
2.2431
2.3576
2.4890
2.6541
2.8944
3.3252
22.7443
B=
ln y
1.4160
1.6094
1.8860
2.1289
2.3080
2.4225
2.5538
2.7189
2.9593
3.3901
23.3928
B=
ln y
1.4518
1.6452
1.9218
2.1648
2.3438
2.4583
2.5897
2.7548
10.1268 48.7863
11.3590 43.2865
12.1588 38.1156
12.6462 34.6462
12.9075 32.5331
13.1224 30.0374
13.2908 26.9668
13.4039 22.9201
13.2270 16.7637
121.3801 346.9435
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Ln (A) =
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Intensidad (mm/hr)
5.7644
4.2625
5.6209
7.1666
8.5718
9.6117
10.9607
12.9280
16.4410
25.2939
104.3700
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Ln (A) =
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Intensidad (mm/hr)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-0.6164
ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
9.8260
52.8878
10.7880 48.7863
11.9817 43.2865
12.7432 38.1156
13.2033 34.6462
13.4474 32.5331
13.6412 30.0374
13.7824 26.9668
13.8571 22.9201
13.6146 16.7637
126.8849 346.9435
-0.6164
ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
10.2976 52.8878
11.2409 48.7863
12.4084 43.2865
13.1436 38.1156
13.5851 34.6462
13.8173 32.5331
13.9966 30.0374
14.1191 26.9668
14.1676 22.9201
13.8801 16.7637
130.6564 346.9435
-0.6164
ln x*ln y
10.5583
11.4913
12.6443
13.3649
13.7961
14.0218
14.1930
14.3053
(lnx)^2
52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
5.9598
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
5.9844
x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
6.1115
19.9881
30.7509
126.8872
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
A = 387.5149
y
4.3774
5.3112
7.0038
8.9299
10.6808
11.9766
13.6575
16.1088
20.4862
31.5173
130.0495
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
A = 397.1726
y
4.9709
6.0314
7.9534
10.1406
12.1290
13.6004
15.5092
18.2929
23.2638
35.7905
147.6822
ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555
A = 451.0228
2.9951
3.4259
23.7513
B=
ln y
1.4765
1.6698
1.9465
2.1894
2.3685
2.4830
2.6143
2.7794
3.0198
3.4505
23.9975
B=
ln y
1.6036
1.7970
2.0736
2.3166
2.4956
2.6101
2.7414
2.9065
3.1469
3.5777
25.2690
B=
14.3392 22.9201
14.0269 16.7637
132.7412 346.9435
-0.6164
ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
10.7374 52.8878
11.6633 48.7863
12.8062 43.2865
13.5169 38.1156
13.9410 34.6462
14.1622 32.5331
14.3280 30.0374
14.4331 26.9668
14.4570 22.9201
14.1277 16.7637
134.1728 346.9435
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Ln (A) =
120
60
4980
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Intensidad (mm/hr)
9
10
10
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-0.6164
ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
11.6620 52.8878
12.5513 48.7863
13.6428 43.2865
14.3019 38.1156
14.6894 34.6462
14.8874 32.5331
15.0248 30.0374
15.0934 26.9668
15.0658 22.9201
14.6483 16.7637
141.5670 346.9435
-0.6164
Regresin potencial
N
x
1
2
2
5
3
10
4
25
5
50
6
75
7
100
8
500
8
767
Constante de Regresin d
Ln (A) =
y
255.8722
293.7011
318.7471
350.3928
373.8694
387.5149
397.1726
451.0228
2828.2929
ln x
0.6931
1.6094
2.3026
3.2189
3.9120
4.3175
4.6052
6.2146
26.8733
ln y
5.5447
5.6826
5.7644
5.8591
5.9239
5.9598
5.9844
6.1115
46.8302
A = 247.8703
5.5129
B=
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
0.1015
y = 247.8703x0.1015
R = 0.9848
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
d Vs. T
80
90
100
Power (d Vs. T)
0.101476
a *T
tc
I=
247.8703
d
=
c
t
ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
3.8433
0.4805
9.1457
2.5903
13.2730
5.3019
18.8596 10.3612
23.1745 15.3039
25.7312 18.6407
27.5590 21.2076
37.9807 38.6214
159.5670 112.5074
I =
* T
0.61639
d
d
*
c
t
x
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
500
a *T b
I =
tc
10
2
5
10
15
20
50
100
500
98.61
108.22
116.11
120.99
124.57
136.71
146.67
172.69
64.33
70.59
75.74
78.92
81.26
89.17
95.67
112.65
Duracin en minutos
15
20
50.10
54.98
58.99
61.47
63.29
69.45
74.52
87.74
41.96
46.05
49.40
51.48
53.00
58.17
62.41
73.48
t
t
c
c
25
30
36.57
40.13
43.06
44.86
46.19
50.69
54.39
64.04
32.68
35.87
38.48
40.10
41.28
45.31
48.61
57.23
0.77
0.019
5
*m
L
L
=
0 .3
=
1
/
4
0.385
S
0 . 76
Frecuencia
aos
35
40
45
50
55
60
2
5
10
15
20
50
100
500
29.72
32.61
34.99
36.46
37.54
41.20
44.20
52.04
27.37
30.04
32.23
33.58
34.57
37.94
40.71
47.93
25.45
27.93
29.97
31.23
32.15
35.29
37.86
44.57
23.85
26.18
28.09
29.26
30.13
33.07
35.48
41.77
22.49
24.68
26.48
27.60
28.41
31.18
33.45
39.39
21.32
23.40
25.10
26.15
26.93
29.55
31.71
37.33
INTENSIDAD (mm/h)
175.00
150.00
Ao 100
125.00
Ao 50
Ao 20
100.00
Ao 15
Ao 10
400
75.00
Ao 5
50.00
25.00
0.00
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Fuente: D.
Duraciones, en horas
24
1
119.3016
108.5645
95.4413
81.1251
72.7740
68.0019
62.0368
54.8787
46.5276
35.7905
4.9709
6.0314
7.9534
10.1406
12.1290
13.6004
15.5092
18.2929
23.2638
35.7905
Regresin T= 2 aos
200
400
Regresin T= 5 aos
200
400
I Vs. t
Regresin T= 10 aos
200
400
I Vs. t
Regresin T= 25 aos
200
400
Regresin T= 50 aos
200
400
I Vs. t
Regresin T= 75 aos
200
400
I Vs. t
200
400
I Vs. t
200
400
Series1
y
255.8722
293.7011
318.7471
350.3928
373.8694
387.5149
397.1726
451.0228
60
Debido a la falta de pluvigrafos en las estaciones prximas al sitio de proyecto, que permitan una determinacin d
las curvas de intensidad - duracin - frecuencia, se trabaj sobre la base de registros de mximas precipitaciones d
Los diversos procedimientos de estimacin de la precipitacin mxima probable no estn normalizados, ya que va
principalmente con la cantidad y calidad de los datos disponibles; adems, cambian con el tamao de la cuenca, s
emplazamiento y su topografa, con los tipos de temporales que producen las precipitaciones extremas y con el clim
mtodos de estimacin de fcil y rpida aplicacin son los empricos y el estadstico.
Aunque existe un nmero importante de distribuciones de probabilidad empleadas en hidrologa, son slo unas cua
comunmente utilizadas, debido a que los datos hidrolgicos de diversos tipos han probado en repetidas ocasiones
satisfactoriamente a un cierto modelo terico. Las lluvias mximas horarias o diarias por lo comn se ajustan bien
distribucin de valores extremos tipo I o Gumbel, a la Log-Pearson tipo III y a la gamma incompleta. En este proye
emple la distribucin Gumbel.